Backward bifurcation in epidemic control.

K P Hadeler; P van den Driessche

doi:10.1016/s0025-5564(97)00027-8

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PubMed · 9357292

Backward bifurcation in epidemic control.

K P Hadeler·P van den Driessche

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Abstract

For a class of epidemiological SIRS models that include public health policies, the stability at the uninfected state and the prevalence at the infected state are investigated. Backward bifurcation from the uninfected state and hysteresis effects are shown to occur for some range of parameters. In such cases, the reproduction number does not describe the necessary elimination effort; rather the effort is described by the value of the critical parameter at the turning point. An explicit expression is given for this quantity. The phenomenon of subcritical bifurcation in epidemic modeling is also discussed in terms of group models, pair formation, and macroparasite infection.

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Disease Outbreaks Humans Mathematics Models, Biological Parasitic Diseases Public Health Journal Article

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K P Hadeler, P van den Driessche. 1997. Backward bifurcation in epidemic control.. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-5564(97)00027-8

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