Using threshold analysis to improve medical decisions.

Abstract

Physicians can improve their medical decision making by considering the risk-benefit ratio, characteristics of a diagnostic test, and the probability of disease. Several threshold values of probability were defined. The treatment threshold is used when a diagnostic test is not being considered. If the probability of disease is greater than the treatment threshold, then treatment should be administered. If a test is being considered, then the test threshold and the test-treatment threshold should be used to determine if testing is indicated. If the probability of disease is less than the test threshold, then no treatment and no testing are the preferred options. If the probability of disease is greater than the test-treatment threshold, then treatment without testing is preferred. If the probability of disease lies between the test and test-treatment thresholds, the test should be performed.