Diversity components of impending primate extinctions.

Abstract

Many extant species are at risk to go extinct. This impending loss of species is likely to cause changes in future ecosystem functions. Ecological components of diversity, such as dietary or habitat specializations, can be used to estimate the impact of extinctions on ecosystem functions. As an approach to estimate the impact of future extinctions, we tested interdependency between ecological and taxonomic change based on current predictions of extinction rates in primates. We analyzed the ecological characteristics of extant primate faunas having species in various categories of endangerment of extinction and forecasted the future primate faunas as if they were paleontological faunas. Predicting future faunas combines the wealth of ecological information on living primates with large, fossil record-like changes in diversity. Predicted extinction patterns of living primates in Africa, Asia, Madagascar, and South America show that changes in ecology differ among the regions in ways that are not reducible to taxonomic measures. The ecological effects of primate extinctions are initially least severe in South America and larger in Asia and Africa. Disproportionately larger ecological changes are projected for Madagascar. The use of taxonomy as a proxy for ecology can mislead when estimating competence of future primate ecosystems.