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PubMed2002

Mass extinctions, biodiversity explosions and ecological niches.

The logistic model proposed by Courtillot and Gaudemer to describe the growth of biodiversity during geological ages is more explored here and further developed. A new parameterisation is first proposed. Another expression of this model is obtained by introducing a new variable representing the number of ecological niches. It appears that the rates of increase of biodiversity during Jurassic and Cretaceous periods is quite different from other ones. The classical literature essentially focuses on possible extinction mechanisms, but explosions in biodiversity must be more precisely explored. For this purpose, on the basis of data analysis through different expressions of the logistic model, different ecological mechanisms can be assumed (e.g., qualitative and quantitative niches changes, possible appearance of new kinds of ecological relationships, such as 'niche-sharing', which involves coexistence or cooperation), even if genetic processes must also be involved. Finally, we emphasise the astonishing speed of biological diversification following a 'catastrophic' mass extinction. We could refer to this feature as 'catastrophic biological diversification'.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Unexpected amino acid composition of modern Reptilia and its implications in molecular mechanisms of dinosaur extinction.

Dinosaur extinction is a great challenge to evolutionary biology. Although accumulating evidence suggests that an abrupt change of environment, such as a long period of low temperature induced by asteroid hit or other disasters, may be responsible for dinosaur extinction, little is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms. By analyzing the amino acid compositions of 13 biological classes, we found that the charged amino acid content of modern Reptilia, the sibling of dinosaur, is strikingly different from those of other classes, which inspires us to propose a possible molecular mechanism for dinosaur extinction.

Amino Acid Sequence↗
PubMed2006

Have we overstated the tropical biodiversity crisis?

Tropical forests are the most biologically diverse and ecologically complex of terrestrial ecosystems, and are disappearing at alarming rates. It has long been suggested that rapid forest loss and degradation in the tropics, if unabated, could ultimately precipitate a wave of species extinctions, perhaps comparable to mass extinction events in the geological history of the Earth. However, a vigorous debate has erupted following a study by Wright and Muller-Landau that challenges the notion of large-scale tropical extinctions, at least over the next century. Here, I summarize this controversy and describe how the debate is stimulating a serious examination of the causes and biological consequences of future tropical deforestation.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Human fear conditioning is related to dopaminergic and serotonergic biological markers.

Biological markers for acquisition and extinction of fear conditioning were studied in 40 individuals selected for displaying either good or poor acquisition of fear conditioning. as estimated by the skin conductance response. Participants with a short serotonin transporter (5-HTT) promoter allele or low monoamine oxidase activity in platelets (trbc-MAO) displayed better acquisition than those with only long alleles or high trbc-MAO, whereas participants with a long dopamine D4 receptor (D4DR) exon III allele showed delayed extinction compared with those with only short alleles. The findings, that D4DR exon III and 5-HTT promoter genotypes and trbc-MAO activity are related to human fear conditioning, a basic form of associative learning, are consistent with animal studies suggesting a genetic contribution to fear conditioning. The authors suggest that in humans these genetic mechanisms are partly dopaminergic and serotonergic in origin.

Alleles↗
PubMed1999

Mass extinction in a dynamical system of evolution with variable dimension.

Introducing the effect of extinction into the so-called replicator equations in mathematical biology, we construct a general model where the diversity of species, i.e., the dimension of the equation, is a time-dependent variable. The system shows very different behavior from the original replicator equation, and leads to mass extinction when the system initially has high diversity. The present theory can serve as a mathematical foundation for the paleontologic theory for mass extinction. This extinction dynamics is a prototype of dynamical systems where the variable dimension is inevitable.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Signatures of random and selective mass extinctions in phylogenetic tree balance.

Current models of diversification with evolving speciation rates have trouble mimicking the extreme imbalance seen in estimated phylogenies. However, these models have not incorporated extinction. Here, we report on a simple simulation model that includes heritable and evolving speciation rates coupled with mass extinctions, Random (but not selective) mass extinctions, coupled with evolving among-lineage variation in speciation rates, increase imbalance of postrecovery clades. Thus, random mass extinctions are plausible contributors to the imbalance of modern clades. Paleontological evidence suggests that mass extinctions are often random with respect to ecological and morphological traits, consistent with our simulations. In contrast, evidence that the current anthropogenic mass extinction is phylogenetically selective suggests that the current extinction episode may be qualitatively different from past ones in the way it reshapes future biotas.

Biological Evolution↗
PubMed2006

Quantifying the genomic decay paradox due to Muller's ratchet in human mitochondrial DNA.

The observation of high mitochondrial mutation rates in human pedigrees has led to the question of how such an asexual genetic system can survive the accumulation of slightly deleterious mutations caused by Muller's ratchet. I define a null model to quantify in unprecedented detail the threat from extinction caused by Muller's ratchet. This model is general enough to explore the biological significance of Muller's ratchet in various species where its operation has been suspected. For increased precision over a wide range of parameter space I employ individual-based simulations run by evolution@home, the first global computing system for evolutionary biology. After compiling realistic values for the key parameters in human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) I find that a surprisingly large range of biologically realistic parameter combinations would lead to the extinction of the human line over a period of 20 million years - if accepted wisdom about mtDNA and Muller's ratchet is correct. The resulting genomic decay paradox complements a similar threat from extinction due to mutation accumulation in nuclear DNA and suggests evaluation of unconventional explanations for long-term persistence. A substantial list of potential solutions is given, including compensatory back mutations, mutation rate heterogeneity and occasional recombination in mtDNA. Future work will have to explore which of these actually solves the paradox. Nonetheless, the results presented here provide yet another reason to minimize anthropogenic increase of mutation rates.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2006

Nannoplankton extinction and origination across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approximately 55 million years ago) was an interval of global warming and ocean acidification attributed to rapid release and oxidation of buried carbon. We show that the onset of the PETM coincided with a prominent increase in the origination and extinction of calcareous phytoplankton. Yet major perturbation of the surface-water saturation state across the PETM was not detrimental to the survival of most calcareous nannoplankton taxa and did not impart a calcification or ecological bias to the pattern of evolutionary turnover. Instead, the rate of environmental change appears to have driven turnover, preferentially affecting rare taxa living close to their viable limits.

Atmosphere↗
PubMed2006

Evolution on distributive lattices.

We consider the directed evolution of a population after an intervention that has significantly altered the underlying fitness landscape. We model the space of genotypes as a distributive lattice; the fitness landscape is a real-valued function on that lattice. The risk of escape from intervention, i.e., the probability that the population develops an escape mutant before extinction, is encoded in the risk polynomial. Tools from algebraic combinatorics are applied to compute the risk polynomial in terms of the fitness landscape. In an application to the development of drug resistance in HIV, we study the risk of viral escape from treatment with the protease inhibitors ritonavir and indinavir.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2005

A rapid loss of stripes: the evolutionary history of the extinct quagga.

Twenty years ago, the field of ancient DNA was launched with the publication of two short mitochondrial (mt) DNA sequences from a single quagga (Equus quagga) museum skin, an extinct South African equid (Higuchi et al. 1984 Nature312, 282-284). This was the first extinct species from which genetic information was retrieved. The DNA sequences of the quagga showed that it was more closely related to zebras than to horses. However, quagga evolutionary history is far from clear. We have isolated DNA from eight quaggas and a plains zebra (subspecies or phenotype Equus burchelli burchelli). We show that the quagga displayed little genetic diversity and very recently diverged from the plains zebra, probably during the penultimate glacial maximum. This emphasizes the importance of Pleistocene climate changes for phylogeographic patterns in African as well as Holarctic fauna.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2006

Extinction times in experimental populations.

Predicting population extinctions is a key element of quantitative conservation biology and population ecology. Although stochastic population theories have long been used to obtain theoretical distributions of population extinction times, model-based predictions have rarely been tested. Here I report results from a quantitative analysis of extinction time in 281 experimental populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna) in variable environments. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative estimate of the shape of the distribution of population extinction times based on extinction data for any species. The finding that the distribution of population extinction times was extraordinarily peaked is consistent with theoretical predictions for density-independent populations, but inconsistent with predictions for density-dependent populations. The tail of the extinction time distribution was not exponential. These results imply that our current theories of extinction are inadequate. Future work should focus on how demographic stochasticity scales with population size and effects of nonrandom variable environments on population growth and decline.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Incorporating evolutionary measures into conservation prioritization.

Conservation prioritization is dominated by the threat status of candidate species. However, species differ markedly in the shared genetic information they embody, and this information is not taken into account if species are prioritized by threat status alone. We developed a system of prioritization that incorporates both threat status and genetic information and applied it to 9546 species of birds worldwide. We devised a simple measure of a species' genetic value that takes into account the shape of the entire taxonomic tree of birds. This measure approximates the evolutionary history that each species embodies and sums to the phylogenetic diversity of the entire taxonomic tree. We then combined this genetic value with each species' probability of extinction to create a species-specific measure of expected loss of genetic information. The application of our methods to the world's avifauna showed that ranking species by expected loss of genetic information may help preserve bird evolutionary history by upgrading those threatened species with fewer close relatives. We recommend developing a mechanism to incorporate a species' genetic value into the prioritization framework.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Population models with singular equilibrium.

A class of models of biological population and communities with a singular equilibrium at the origin is analyzed; it is shown that these models can possess a dynamical regime of deterministic extinction, which is crucially important from the biological standpoint. This regime corresponds to the presence of a family of homoclinics to the origin, so-called elliptic sector. The complete analysis of possible topological structures in a neighborhood of the origin, as well as asymptotics to orbits tending to this point, is given. An algorithmic approach to analyze system behavior with parameter changes is presented. The developed methods and algorithm are applied to existing mathematical models of biological systems. In particular, we analyze a model of anticancer treatment with oncolytic viruses, a parasite-host interaction model, and a model of Chagas' disease.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1996

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

Animals↗
PubMed1984

Measles: extinction or evolution?

The human body is the biological environment to which measles virus must adapt. In this paper the immunity conferred by vaccination is viewed as a selective force on the evolution of this virus. The possible consequences of this type of selection pressure include an increased Ro, antigenic variation, and immune depression.

Antigens, Viral↗
PubMed2006

Long-term evolution of an ecosystem with spontaneous periodicity of mass extinctions.

Twenty years ago, after analysing palaeontological data, Raup and Sepkoski suggested that mass extinctions on Earth appear cyclically in time with a period of approximately 26 million years (My). To explain the 26My period, a number of proposals were made involving, e.g., astronomical effects, increased volcanic activity, or the Earth's magnetic field reversal, none of which, however, has been confirmed. Here we study a spatially extended discrete model of an ecosystem and show that the periodicity of mass extinctions might be a natural feature of the ecosystem's dynamics and not the result of a periodic external perturbation. In our model, periodic changes of the diversity of an ecosystem and some of its other characteristics are induced by the coevolution of species. In agreement with some palaeontological data, our results show that the longevity of a species depends on the evolutionary stage at which the species is created. Possible further tests of our model are also discussed.

Animals↗