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PubMed2004

Predictors of atherosclerosis.

It is herein discussed what should be measured as predictors of atherosclerosis, to increase the predictive power of coronary risk evaluation in clinical practice. Plasma apolipoprotein (apo)B and apoAI have been reported to be stronger predictors of coronary artery disease (CAD) than plasma low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol (C) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-C. The estimation of plasma levels of remnants of TG-rich lipoproteins is also important for coronary risk evaluation. An increase in plasma small, dense LDL is a risk factor for CAD. It is not practical to measure plasma small, dense LDL as a routine clinical examination. We should estimate the plasma levels of small, dense LDL by plasma triglyceride (TG), apoB, and HDL-C levels. Oxidized LDL (ox-LDL) plays an important role in atherosclerosis. Further large-scale, prospective studies are necessary to determine whether the measurement of plasma ox-LDL and autoantibodies against ox-LDL is an essential predictor of atherosclerosis. High plasma levels of Lp(a) are a risk factor for atherosclerotic vascular diseases in subjects with high plasma LDL-C levels and multiple coronary risk factors. Metabolic syndrome (MS) has been recognized recently as a predictor of CAD. As a result, it should be elucidated whether MS must be involved in the coronary risk evaluation score because all components of MS are involved in the score. A high plasma level of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is an important predictor of atherosclerotic diseases. Whether it is essential to measure the plasma levels of atherosclerosis surrogate markers in clinical practice remains to be elucidated. It is concluded that plasma levels of apoB, apoAI, remnant-like particle (RLP)-C, lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)], and hs-CRP in addition to those of lipids should be measured as predictors of atherosclerosis in clinical practice. We need to establish a new atherosclerosis risk evaluation scoring system involving the above factors, based on large-scale, prospective studies, to prevent atherosclerotic vascular diseases. In Japan, plasma levels of Lp(a), RLP-C, and hs-CRP are routinely measured in clinical practice. As a result, it would be rather easy to establish a new atherosclerosis risk evaluation scoring system in Japan.

Arteriosclerosis↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of first repeat biopsy cancer detection with suspected local stage prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: We determine demographic and tumor related predictors of repeat biopsy cancer detection in men with suspected stage T1c-2 prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population included 298 consecutive men with suspected stage T1c-2 prostate cancer who had a benign prostate biopsy at 1 institution between January 1, 1992 and April 1, 1999 and underwent 1 repeat biopsy. Mean age plus or minus standard deviation was 66.8+/-6.7 years for 133 black (55%) and 165 white (45%) patients. Clinical measures included determination of high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in benign biopsy specimens, Gleason score of malignant biopsy specimens, prostate specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, annualized interbiopsy PSA change, percent free PSA (201 cases) and PSA velocity (171). RESULTS: Cancer was detected on repeat biopsy in 80 cases (27%). Significant differences between patients with benign and malignant repeat biopsies included age (p = 0.001), PSA density (p = 0.0001), percent free PSA (p = 0.0001) and PSA velocity (p = 0.009). High grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in an initial benign biopsy was not predictive of cancer in repeat biopsy (p = 0.12). Multiple logistic regression analysis of all cases showed that age (p = 0.002) and PSA density (p = 0.0002) were independent predictors of cancer. Subset multiple logistic regression analysis modeled with age, PSA density and percent free PSA demonstrated that age (p = 0.002) and percent free PSA (p = 0.0001) were significant independent predictors of malignancy. Subset multiple logistic regression analysis modeled with age, PSA density, percent free PSA and PSA velocity revealed that age (p = 0.02) and percent free PSA (p = 0.0003) were significant independent predictors of cancer. There were no significant differences between the Gleason scores of cancers detected on repeat biopsy compared to 587 stage T1c-2 cancers detected on initial biopsy during the study period (p = 0.09). PSA, PSA density, percent free PSA and PSA velocity were not significantly different among men without a cancer diagnosis who had high grade neoplasia in 1 or 2 benign biopsies. CONCLUSIONS: Greater than 25% of this population of select patients with suspected stage T1c-2 prostate cancer had malignancy detected on repeat biopsy. Percent free PSA was the most powerful predictor of cancer. High grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia was not a predictor of repeat biopsy cancer detection and PSA functions were similar among men without cancer who did and did not have high grade neoplasia in 1 or more benign biopsies. This finding suggests that high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia may not be a reliable indicator of clinically significant existing prostate cancer.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of substance abuse treatment retention among women and men in an HMO.

BACKGROUND: Although prior research has examined predictors of treatment retention in public alcohol and drug treatment programs, little is known about factors that influence treatment retention in an insured outpatient population. Because there is growing evidence that the factors which influence treatment retention may differ by gender, we identify sex-specific predictors. METHODS: We recruited all eligible intakes to a health maintenance organization's outpatient alcohol and drug treatment program during a 2-year period and obtained a sample of 317 women and 599 men. The programs, day hospital and traditional outpatient modalities, were abstinence based. We separated our sample by sex and used least squares and logistic regression to identify independent predictors of length of stay and program completion, respectively. RESULTS: One general pattern of predictors of increased retention was shared by women and men in this alcohol and drug treatment program--fewer and less severe drug problems. However, most predictors were sex-specific. Among women, retention was predicted by having higher incomes, belonging to ethnic categories other than African American, being unemployed, being married, and having lower levels of psychiatric severity. Among men, predictors of higher retention included being older, receiving employer suggestions to enter treatment, and having abstinence goals. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of examining aspects of the course of treatment separately by sex. They also suggest treatment factors that may enhance retention among insured populations, including employer referrals, psychiatric services, and drug-related services.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Inflammation, malnutrition, and cardiac disease as predictors of mortality in hemodialysis patients.

Various studies suggest a strong association between nutrition and clinical outcome in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Several morbidity factors that per se increase the risk of a poor outcome, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inflammation, may also cause malnutrition. Among laboratory parameters used to assess nutritional status, serum albumin appears to be a particularly strong predictor of morbidity and mortality. This study assessed the importance of nutritional status and inflammation and other comorbidity factors as predictors of mortality in HD patients. Nutritional status was evaluated in 128 HD patients by subjective global nutritional assessment (SGNA) and by measuring several anthropometric markers (actual body weight, percentage of actual body weight to desirable body weight, midarm muscle circumferences, triceps skinfold thickness), and serum albumin, plasma insulin such as insulin growth factor-1 and as a marker of inflammation, serum C-reactive protein (s-CRP) levels. The mortality during the next 36 mo was analyzed in relation to age, gender, CVD, SGNA, serum albumin, CRP, and several other factors by Kaplan-Meier analysis multivariate. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to identify independent predictors of mortality. After 36 mo, 58 patients were still on HD treatment, 57 patients (45%) had died while receiving treatment, and 13 had received a kidney transplant. The main cause of death was CVD (58%), followed by infection (18%); malnutrition/cachexia was a rare direct cause of death (5%). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that age, female gender, CVD, diabetes, SGNA, all anthropometric parameters, serum albumin, plasma insulinlike growth factor-1, and s-CRP were significant predictors of mortality. Analysis by the Cox model showed that age, gender, CVD, nutritional status (SGNA), and CRP were independent predictors of mortality at 36 mo. A low albumin level was not an independent predictor, although it was strongly associated with a reduced survival rate in the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Inflammation, malnutrition, and CVD appeared to contribute to increased mortality in a stepwise manner. The mortality at 36 mo was 0% when none of these complications was present, whereas the mortality was 75% in those patients with all three risk factors present at baseline. It is concluded that in addition to malnutrition and comorbidities (CVD, diabetes mellitus), inflammation (elevated s-CRP) is a significant independent risk factor for mortality in HD patients. Inflammation, malnutrition, and CVD appear to be interrelated, each additionally contributing to the high mortality in these patients.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

The longterm outcome of osteoarthritis: rates and predictors of joint space narrowing in symptomatic patients with knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the rate of progression of radiographic joint space narrowing (JSN) and the factors that predict it in symptomatic clinic patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: In total 1,507 patients with knee OA were studied with extended weight-bearing anterior-posterior views of the knee as part of a longitudinal study of longterm outcomes of osteoarthritis (OA). Baseline demographic and severity measurements included body mass index (BMI), pain, global severity, Health Assessment Questionnaire disability, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Rates and predictors of progression were obtained by Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox regressions using a JSN score of 3 as "failure." RESULTS: For the 1,232 patients who had not reached the endpoint narrowing score of 3 when first evaluated, the 75th and 50th survival times (time to JSN = 3) were 11.27 and 17.84 years for those with JSN = 0 at onset, 7.41 and 12.03 years for those with JSN = 1 at onset, and 4.49 and 7.44 years for those with JSN = 2 at onset. The corresponding yearly incidence rates for the 3 initial groups were 0.017, 0.032, and 0.077. In multivariate Cox models, initial JSN, BMI, symptom duration, and global severity were predictors of progression, but only JSN was a strong predictor. BMI predicted JSN in those with JSN = 0 at onset, but not in patients with more severe disease. Although contralateral JSN predicted progression, it was only of value with initial homolateral JSN scores of 0. Assessment of homolateral osteophytes aided prediction in patients with initial JSN = 0, but was of much less help when JSN had a higher severity score. CONCLUSION: The risk of progression in clinical OA patients with radiographic abnormalities is substantial. Nonradiographic predictors of OA progression (e.g., BMI) are weak predictors of radiographic progression compared to current radiographic status. Rates of progression are greatest in those with established radiographic abnormalities. Osteophytes are of limited additional values once JSN = 2 is present. Contralateral radiographic abnormalities are useful predictors only in those with JSN = 0. Intervention studies to prevent radiographic progression probably should utilize joints where evidence of abnormality already exists. At a clinical level, current radiographic status predicts future status, with 50% of patients with JSN = 1 and 50% of patients with JSN = 2 progressing to complete joint space loss in 12.03 and 7.44 years, respectively.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2002

Psychosocial and clinical predictors of response to pharmacotherapy for depression.

A more complete understanding of the psychosocial and clinical predictors of response to pharmacotherapy would be of great value to both patients and physicians. Most demographic and clinical factors have not been found to be useful predictors of response. Although comorbid illness affects quality of life, there is confounding evidence about its importance when predicting response to antidepressant therapy. Some social support factors appear to be positive predictors of outcome in most trials. There is evidence to suggest that comorbid anxiety disorders and panic-agoraphobic spectrum symptoms are negative predictors of response to treatment. Substance abuse has been associated with a poorer response to antidepressant therapy, and recovery from substance abuse problems has been shown to be poorer among patients with comorbid depression. Assessment of personality dimensions may be a useful predictor of clinical course and outcome, but personality disorders present a complicated picture, with significant interaction among variables. A number of variables are significantly related to clinical course, but few factors have been clearly linked to treatment response. The challenge is to determine if any of these factors are indeed independent predictors of response and whether it is possible to match choice of antidepressant therapy and patient type.

Antidepressive Agents↗

PubMed1992

Predictors of dating violence: a multivariate analysis.

A multivariate approach was used to determine the pattern of predictors associated with engaging in dating violence. Predictors were selected whose relationship to dating violence has been established by earlier research: attitudes toward violence, sex-role attitudes, romantic jealousy, general levels of interpersonal aggression, verbal aggression, and verbal and physical aggression received from one's partner. Participants included 305 introductory psychology student volunteers (227 females and 78 males) who completed a set of scales related to dating relationships. Expecting different patterns of predictors to emerge for men and women, we performed separate multiple regression analyses for each. Of the set of predictors employed, receipt of physical violence from one's partner emerged as the largest predictor of expressed violence for both men and women. In addition, higher scores on attitudes toward violence and verbal aggression, and less traditional sex-role attitudes emerged as significant predictors of expressed violence for men. For women, less accepting attitudes toward violence, more traditional sex-role attitudes, feelings of romantic jealousy, higher general levels of interpersonal aggression, and verbal aggression were predictive of expressed violence. The implications of our findings for future research are discussed.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Comparison of the Charlson Comorbidity Index and the Davies score as a predictor of outcomes in PD patients.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidity is a strong predictor and confounds many studies of outcomes. Previous studies have shown that the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the Davies score predict mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. However, there are few data on the comparison of comorbidity scores. OBJECTIVE: To compare the CCI (combines comorbidity and age) and Davies score (comorbidity score without age) to see if one score was superior to the other in predicting outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective database study. SETTING: Seven dialysis centers in Western Pennsylvania. PARTICIPANTS: 415 incident PD patients, starting PD from 1/1/90 to 2/1/00. MEASUREMENTS: The CCI and Davies score calculated at the start of PD; serum albumin levels and demographics at the start of PD; total hospitalizations and mortality, collected prospectively. RESULTS: The correlation between CCI and Davies was 0.80, p < 0.0001. The CCI was inversely correlated with serum albumin (-0.31, p < 0.0001). Davies was significantly correlated with age (0.32, p < 0.0001) and inversely correlated with albumin (-0.27, p < 0.0001). The CCI alone was a stronger predictor than Davies alone (score by best subsets regression 49.6 vs 42.0, p = 0.0058). The CCI and Davies with age appeared to be equivalent models of survival (49.61 vs 49.64). The best predictive models were CCI and initial albumin, or Davies, age, and initial albumin. Both CCI and Davies were predictors of hospitalization rates, but the model with the Davies score was better (Akaike information criterion 799.2 vs 850.2). The best predictive model was Davies, albumin, age, and race. CONCLUSIONS: Both comorbidity scores were significant predictors of outcomes, with CCI the stronger predictor for mortality, but the Davies was a stronger predictor of hospitalizations. One or both should be done at the start of dialysis to predict outcome.

Female↗

PubMed2006

Descriptive characteristics as potential predictors of outcomes following constraint-induced movement therapy for people after stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Limited evidence exists regarding the characteristics of people who benefit most from constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT). This study's purpose was to investigate 6 potential descriptors in predicting CIMT outcomes. SUBJECTS: The participants were a convenience sample (N=55) of people who were more than 6 months poststroke. METHODS: The Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT) and the Motor Activity Log amount scale (MALa) were used to assess outcomes for CIMT. The potential predictors (side of stroke, time since stroke, hand dominance, age, sex, and ambulatory status) were entered into a linear regression model using stepwise entry, with simultaneous entry of the dependent variables' pretest scores as the covariate. RESULTS: Age was the only significant predictor of the 6 potential predictors in the model and was predictive only of MALa scores. None of the independent variables showed a predictive relationship with the WMFT. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Although age was the only significant predictor, an equally strong finding in this study was that side of stroke, chronicity, hand dominance, sex, and ambulatory status were not found to be predictors at the follow-up session. This finding emphasizes the importance of not excluding people from CIMT based on these predictors.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predictors of surgical outcome in patients undergoing aortobifemoral bypass reconstruction.

We report a prospective study with 2 years of follow-up including 105 consecutive symptomatic patients (58.1% claudication and 41.9% severe ischemia) undergoing aortobifemoral bypass surgery (ABF/BP). Proportional-hazards, stepwise regression, and life-table analyses were used to determine predictors of the following outcome criteria: graft patency, amputation, mortality, symptomatic recurrence, and palliation. The operative mortality was 5.7% and the 2-year cumulative mortality was 15.5%. Most deaths (61.5%) were cardiac-related. There were 3 predictors of mortality: the presence of more than 1 surgical risk factor (relative risk [RR] 6.2; p less than 0.001), advanced age (RR 2.9; p = 0.03) and the presence of ischemic heart disease (RR 1.5; p = 0.045). No patient required amputation. Early graft patency rate was 94.3% and the 2-year cumulative patency was 92.8%. The only predictor of graft failure was preoperative ankle/brachial index (ABI) of less than 0.4 (RR 6.1; p = 0.003). Early symptomatic relief was 98.1% and at 2 years it was 77.3%. There were 2 predictors of symptomatic recurrence: postoperative smoking (RR 2.4; p less than 0.001) and impaired runoff (RR 2.5; p = 0.017). Cumulative palliation was 87.6% at 1 month and 66.5% at 2 years postoperatively. There were 2 predictors of palliation: the presence of more than 1 surgical risk-factor (RR 1.8; p = 0.001) and postoperative transcutaneous oximetry (PtcO2) of less than 35 mmHg (RR 3.1; p = 0.04). We conclude that the best predictors of outcome in patients undergoing ABF/BP surgery were the number of preoperative risk factors, age, ischemic heart disease, ABI, PtcO2, postoperative smoking, and angiographic runoff.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Early predictors of outcome in children with head injuries].

In an attempt to determine whether the clinical data obtained by primary survey may be used as early outcome predictors in children who had sustained head trauma, children aged 0-14 with clinical diagnoses of coma, contusion, comotio, skull fracture or a combination of these diagnoses or who had been hospitalized for at least 3 days, between 1987 and 1990, were reviewed retrospectively. The outcome was defined by the clinical condition of children 6 months following head trauma using a Glasgow outcome scale (GOS), and was classified: good (good recovery and moderate disability) and poor (severe disability, persistent vegetative state, death). Of 70 children with trauma, 43 patients (61.4%) were separated by this method. The pupillary appearance and reactivity, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and motor response graded by GCS were compared with the outcome. The analysis demonstrated that the early significant predictors of outcome of head trauma are the pupillary appearance and reactivity as well as Glasgow coma scale. Motor response graded by GCS did not achieve statistical significance (z = 1.5, P > 0.05) as a predictor of outcome. In this analysis, we have graded motor response according to the GCS criteria, thus it is not excluded that the use of different criteria could demonstrate the importance of motor response as an outcome predictor. In order to ascertain the significance of predictors in early outcome prognosis of head trauma, a relative risk for poor outcome was calculated. Our results showed that the significant predictors in descending order of preference are: pupillary reactivity, pupillary appearance and GCS.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Meningococcal disease in a large urban population (Barcelona, 1987-1992): predictors of dismal prognosis. Barcelona Meningococcal Disease Surveillance Group.

CONTEXT: Studies on meningococcal disease in large urban communities have rarely been performed and are usually based on passive epidemiologic surveillance. Active surveillance may provide new insights. OBJECTIVES: To determine epidemiologic, clinical, and bacteriological characteristics and predictors of dismal prognosis (death and sequelae) in meningococcal disease. DESIGN: Prospective, population-based study. SETTING: All the acute care hospitals (n = 24) in Barcelona, Spain. PATIENT: The 643 patients whose conditions were diagnosed from 1987 through 1992 were detected by 2 active surveillance methods. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence and notification to Public Health Service. Clinical and bacteriological features were determined. Dismal prognosis predictors were determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: Average annual incidence was 6.41 per 100,000 inhabitants, with no clear trend of change (P = .08). Sensitivity of the Public Health Service surveillance system was 69.1%. Children younger than 10 years from the inner city were at higher risk than those from the highest income district (relative risk, 3.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-5.06). Increasing annual incidence of serogroup C (0.82-1.29/100,000; P = .008) and decreasing incidence of serogroup B (5.11-2.82/100,000; P = .004) was noted. Average annual mortality was 0.40 per 100,000 inhabitants, while the annual average potential years of life lost was 18 per 100,000 inhabitants. Overall case-fatality rate was 6.4%. Independent predictors of death were hemorrhagic diathesis (odds ratio [OR], 63; 95% CI, 21-194), focal neurologic signs (OR, 10; 95% CI, 3-30), and age 60 years or older (OR, 6; 95% CI, 2-17), whereas preadmission antibiotic therapy was associated with favorable outcome (OR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.02-0.3). Four percent of survivors presented with sequelae. Independent predictors of sequelae were hemorrhagic diathesis (OR, 21; 95% CI, 3-131), focal neurologic signs (OR, 16; 95% CI, 5-53), age 60 years or older (OR, 7; 95% CI, 2-26), and age between 15 and 59 years (OR, 5; 95% CI, 2-14), whereas preadmission antibiotic therapy had a protective effect (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.04-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Active epidemiologic surveillance significantly improved detection of cases and allowed us to observe that meningococcal disease still causes much morbidity and mortality, especially among children living in the inner city. Hemorrhagic diathesis, focal neurologic signs, and age were independent predictors of dismal prognosis, whereas preadmission antibiotic therapy had a protective effect.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Predictors of survival after deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism: a population-based, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Because reported survival after venous thromboembolism (VTE) varies widely, we performed a population-based retrospective cohort study to estimate survival, compare observed with expected survival, and determine predictors of short-term (< or =7 days) and long-term survival (>7 days) after VTE. METHODS: We followed the 25-year (1966-1990) inception cohort (n = 2218) of Olmsted County, Minnesota, patients with deep vein thrombosis alone (DVT) or pulmonary embolism with or without deep vein thrombosis (PE+/-DVT) forward in time until death or the last clinical contact. RESULTS: During 14 629 person-years of follow-up, 1333 patients died. Seven-day, 30-day, and 1-year VTE survival rates were 74.8% (DVT, 96.2%; PE+/-DVT, 59.1%), 72.0% (DVT, 94.5%; PE+/-DVT, 55.6%), and 63.6% (DVT, 85.4%; PE+/-DVT, 47.7%), respectively. Observed survival after DVT, PE+/-DVT, and overall was significantly worse than expected for Minnesota whites of similar age and sex (P<.001). More than one third of deaths occurred on the date of onset or after VTE that was unrecognized during life. Short-term survival improved during the 25-year study period, while long-term survival was unchanged. After adjusting for comorbid conditions, PE+/-DVT was an independent predictor of reduced survival for up to 3 months after onset compared with DVT alone. Other independent predictors of both short- and long-term survival included age, body mass index, patient location at onset, malignancy, congestive heart failure, neurologic disease, chronic lung disease, recent surgery, and hormone therapy. Additional independent predictors of long-term survival included tobacco smoking, other cardiac disease, and chronic renal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Survival after VTE, and especially after PE+/-DVT, is much worse than reported, and significantly less than expected survival. Compared with DVT alone, symptomatic PE+/-DVT is an independent predictor of reduced survival for up to 3 months after onset, implying that treatment for the 2 disorders should be different.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Relevance of carotid stenosis progression as a predictor of ischemic neurological outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The progression of carotid stenosis may be a better predictor of adverse neurological outcomes than a single measurement of stenosis in asymptomatic patients. METHODS: Retrospective review of prospectively collected data from a noninvasive vascular surgery laboratory between 1988 and 1997 at a Veterans Affairs Medical Center. A total of 1701 carotid arteries from 1004 asymptomatic patients were prospectively followed by duplex ultrasonographic scanning. Carotid arteries treated with endarterectomy were excluded. The main outcome measures were ipsilateral transient ischemic attack (TIA) and cerebrovascular accident (CVA). RESULTS: The baseline degree of carotid stenosis was less than 50% of artery diameter in 75% of patients. The annual rates of ipsilateral TIA and CVA were each 3.3%. When categorized with respect to carotid artery, the annual rates of ipsilateral TIAs and CVAs were 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively. Univariable Cox proportional hazards modeling showed that both baseline carotid stenosis and progression of stenosis were significant predictors of the composite outcome TIA and CVA, as well as the outcome CVA alone. In multivariable modeling, the progression of carotid stenosis was a highly significant predictor of the composite outcome TIA and CVA (risk ratio [RR], 1.68; P<.001) and of CVA alone (RR, 1.78; P<.001). However, baseline stenosis was found to be a significant predictor of time to the combined outcome (RR, 1.29; P =.01) but not of CVA alone. Clinical risk factors did not add any additional predictive information. CONCLUSION: The progression of carotid stenosis assessed by serial duplex scanning is a better predictor of ischemic neurological events than a single measurement of stenosis.

Brain Ischemia↗

PubMed1991

Predictors of intracranial carotid artery atherosclerosis. Duration of cigarette smoking and hypertension are more powerful than serum lipid levels.

The effect of cigarette smoking on intracranial internal carotid artery atherosclerosis (ICAS) was studied by obtaining cigarette smoking histories and data on other potential predictors, including serum lipid estimations, for consecutive patients undergoing carotid arteriography. The duration of cigarette smoking was the most significant independent predictor of the presence of ICAS. Other independently significant predictors of ICAS were hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and current systolic blood pressure. The interaction of diabetes and duration of smoking was a significant negative predictor. In patients for whom serum lipid values were available, lower levels of apolipoprotein A-I were associated with a higher risk of having ICAS. However, the effect of apolipoprotein A-I as a predictor of the presence of ICAS was far outweighted by the effects of duration of smoking and hypertension.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

Neuropsychologic predictors of competency in Alzheimer's disease using a rational reasons legal standard.

OBJECTIVE: To identify neuropsychologic predictors of competency performance and status in Alzheimer's disease (AD) using a specific legal standard (LS). This study is a follow-up to the competency assessment research reported in this issue of the archives. DESIGN: Univariate and multivariate analyses of independent neuropsychologic test measures with a dependent measure of competency to consent to treatment. SETTING: University medical center. SUBJECTS: Fifteen normal older control subjects and 29 patients with probable AD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Subjects were administered a battery of neuropsychologic measures theoretically linked to competency function, as well as two clinical vignettes testing their capacity to consent to medical treatment under five different LSs. The present study focused on one specific LS: the capacity to provide "rational reasons" for a treatment choice (LS4). Neuropsychologic test scores were correlated with scores on LS4 for the normal control group and the AD group. The resulting univariate predictors were then analyzed using stepwise regression and discriminant function to identify the key multivariate predictors of competency performance and status under LS4. RESULTS: Measures of word fluency predicted the LS4 scores of controls (R2 = .33) and the AD group (R2 = .36). A word fluency measure also emerged as the best single predictor of competency status for the full subject sample (n = 44), correctly classifying 82% of cases. Dementia severity (Mini-Mental State Examination score) did not emerge as a multivariate predictor of competency performance or status. Interestingly, measures of verbal reasoning and memory were not strongly associated with LS4. CONCLUSIONS: Word fluency measures predicted the normative performance and intact competency status of older control subjects and the declining performance and compromised competency status of patients with AD on a "rational reasons" standard of competency to consent to treatment. Cognitive capacities related to frontal lobe function appear to underlie the capacity to formulate rational reasons for a treatment choice. Neuropsychologic studies of competency function have important theoretical and clinical value.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of intussusception in young children.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of intussusception in young children. DESIGN: A retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PATIENTS: A consecutive sample of children younger than 5 years on whom contrast enemas were performed because of suspected intussusception seen at an urban children's hospital from 1990 to 1995. METHODS: We evaluated historical, clinical, and radiographic variables. Variables documented in 75% or more of the medical records and associated with intussusception (P< or =.20) in the univariate analysis were evaluated in a multiple logistic regression analysis. Variables retaining significance (P< or =.05) in the multivariate analysis were considered independent predictors of intussusception. We used bootstrap resampling techniques to validate the multivariate model. RESULTS: Sixty-eight (59%) of the 115 patients had intussusception. Univariate predictors of intussusception included male sex, age younger than 2 years, history of emesis, rectal bleeding, lethargy, abdominal mass, and a highly suggestive abdominal radiograph. In the multivariate analysis, we identified only 4 independent predictors (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval): a highly suggestive abdominal radiograph (18.3; 4.0-83.1), rectal bleeding (17.3; 2.9-104.0), male sex (6.2; 1.2-32.3), and a history of emesis (13.4; 1.4-126.0). We identified 3 of these 4 variables (all but emesis) as independent predictors in more than 50% of 1000 bootstrap data samples. CONCLUSIONS: Rectal bleeding, a highly suggestive abdominal radiograph, and male sex are variables independently associated with intussusception in a cohort of children suspected of having this diagnosis. Knowledge of these variables may assist in clinical decision making regarding diagnostic and therapeutic interventions.

California↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of mortality and limb loss in necrotizing soft tissue infections.

HYPOTHESIS: Necrotizing soft tissue infections are associated with a high mortality rate. We hypothesize that specific predictors of limb loss and mortality in patients with necrotizing soft tissue infection can be identified on hospital admission. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Patients with a diagnosis of necrotizing soft tissue infection during a 5-year period (1996-2001) were included. Patients were identified with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision hospital discharge diagnosis codes, and diagnosis was confirmed by medical record review. INTERVENTIONS: Standard current treatment including early and scheduled repeated debridement, broad-spectrum antibiotics, and physiologic and nutritional support was given to all patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Limb loss and mortality. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-six patients were identified and included in the study. The overall mortality rate was 16.9%, and limb loss occurred in 26% of patients with extremity involvement. Independent predictors of mortality included white blood cell count greater than 30 000 x 10(3)/microL, creatinine level greater than 2 mg/dL (176.8 micromol/L), and heart disease at hospital admission. Independent predictors of limb loss included heart disease and shock (systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) at hospital admission. Clostridial infection was an independent predictor for both limb loss (odds ratio, 3.9 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-12.8]) and mortality (odds ratio, 4.1 [95% confidence interval, 1.3-12.3]) and was highly associated with intravenous drug use and a high rate of leukocytosis on hospital admission. The latter was found to be a good variable in estimating the probability of death. CONCLUSIONS: Clostridial infection is consistently associated with poor outcome. This together with the independent predictors mentioned earlier should aid in identifying patients on hospital admission who may benefit from more aggressive and novel therapeutic approaches.

Adult↗