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Results for “Uncertainty modelling”

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PubMed2003

A method for detection and diagnosis on batch fermentations.

In this work we present some basic ideas about detection and diagnosis of faults and abrupt dynamic changes in batch fermentations. Our work focuses on the simultaneous use of two detection methods (residual based and balances based) within the estimation procedure. The idea behind the use of both methods is that the weakness of one of them can be compensated by the use of the other one. Thus the simultaneous use of both methods allows detecting and possibly isolating a wide range of faults. Observations such as the effect of nonlinearities on the detection tests and robustness to model uncertainty are discussed. Numerical results on a particular case, the xanthan gum batch fermentation, are presented. Simulated faults and abnormal behaviors were promptly detected but diagnostics showed mixed results.

Bioreactors↗

PubMed2006

A simplified type-2 fuzzy logic controller for real-time control.

Increasingly, genetic algorithms (GAs) are used to optimize the parameters of fuzzy logic controllers (FLCs). Although GAs provide a systematic design approach, the optimization process is generally performed off-line using a plant model. Differences between the model and physical plant may result in unsatisfactory control performance when the FLCs are deployed in practice. Type-2 FLCs are an attractive alternative because they can better cope with modeling uncertainties. Unfortunately, type-2 FLCs are computationally intensive. This paper presents a simplified type-2 FLC that is suitable for real-time applications. The key idea is to only replace some critical type-1 fuzzy sets by type-2 sets. Experimental results indicate that the proposed simplified type-2 FLC is as robust as a conventional type-2 FLC, while lowering the computational cost.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2006

MIMO extended predictive control-implementation and robust stability analysis.

The objective of this work is to develop a new tuning strategy for multivariable extended predictive control (EPC). A natural concern is the problem of ill conditionality in controlling multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems. The main advantage of EPC is that it has a simple and effective tuning strategy that results in a well-conditioned system which can achieve tight closed-loop response. Moreover, unlike most existing model predictive control tuning strategies, the proposed strategy establishes a direct relationship between one main tuning parameter for each subprocess of the MIMO system. This tuning method has been derived based on the assumption of an infinite control horizon resulting in powerful stability for the nominal case and in the presence of model uncertainty. This tuning method is applicable to unconstrained multivariable processes, and was proven to have good control on nonsquare systems. The main features of the new tuning strategy are practically illustrated on a MIMO temperature system with improved control performance as compared to move suppressed predictive control.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2000

Effect of tyrosine intake on the rate of phenylalanine hydroxylation in adult males.

This study evaluated the effect of varying levels of tyrosine intake on the estimation of phenylalanine hydroxylation. Healthy men were fed 1 g protein kg(-1) x d(-1) for a 2-day period. On the third day, subjects consumed a formula diet containing 1 g protein kg(-1) x d(-1) hourly over 10 hours, and primed hourly oral doses of L-[15N]phenylalanine and L-[3,3-2H2]tyrosine for the last 6 hours. Each subject was studied at 7 levels of tyrosine intake (3.0, 4.5, 6.0, 7.5, 9.0, 10.5, and 12.0 mg x kg(-1) x d(-1)) at a constant intake of phenylalanine (9 mg x kg(-1) x d(-1), 4.55 micromol x kg(-1) x h(-1)). Phenylalanine hydroxylation was estimated from the ratio of plasma amino acid isotope enrichment of [15N]phenylalanine and [15N]tyrosine and the tyrosine flux estimated from [2H2]tyrosine enrichment. Phenylalanine and tyrosine fluxes showed no significant response to alterations in the intake of tyrosine. Linear regression analysis showed a significant response such that the rate of phenylalanine hydroxylation decreased as tyrosine intake increased (R2 = .21; P = .003). The mean rates of phenylalanine hydroxylation were 3.89 to 8.06 micromol x kg(-1) x h(-1). Given model uncertainties, the apparent protein breakdown observed at tyrosine intake levels less than 10.5 mg x kg(-1) x d(-1), and the significant differences observed between the present data and our prior data, we cannot estimate the tyrosine requirement with any degree of certainty with the present hydroxylation results.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate.

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will almost certainly lead to changes in global mean climate. But because--by definition--extreme events are rare, it is significantly more difficult to quantify the risk of extremes. Ensemble-based probabilistic predictions, as used in short- and medium-term forecasts of weather and climate, are more useful than deterministic forecasts using a 'best guess' scenario to address this sort of problem. Here we present a probabilistic analysis of 19 global climate model simulations with a generic binary decision model. We estimate that the probability of total boreal winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal will increase by a factor of five over parts of the UK over the next 100 years. We find similar increases in probability for the Asian monsoon region in boreal summer, with implications for flooding in Bangladesh. Further practical applications of our techniques would be helped by the use of larger ensembles (for a more complete sampling of model uncertainty) and a wider range of scenarios at a resolution adequate to analyse average-size river basins.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2006

Hypothesis testing and Bayesian estimation using a sigmoid Emax model applied to sparse dose-response designs.

Application of a sigmoid Emax model is described for the assessment of dose-response with designs containing a small number of doses (typically, three to six). The expanded model is a common Emax model with a power (Hill) parameter applied to dose and the ED50 parameter. The model will be evaluated following a strategy proposed by Bretz et al. (2005). The sigmoid Emax model is used to create several contrasts that have high power to detect an increasing trend from placebo. Alpha level for the hypothesis of no dose-response is controlled using multiple comparison methods applied to the p-values obtained from the contrasts. Subsequent to establishing drug activity, Bayesian methods are used to estimate the dose-response curve from the sparse dosing design. Bayesian estimation applied to the sigmoid model represents uncertainty in model selection that is missed when a single simpler model is selected from a collection of non-nested models. The goal is to base model selection on substantive knowledge and broad experience with dose-response relationships rather than criteria selected to ensure convergence of estimators. Bayesian estimation also addresses deficiencies in confidence intervals and tests derived from asymptotic-based maximum likelihood estimation when some parameters are poorly determined, which is typical for data from common dose-response designs.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Control of thermal therapies with moving power deposition field.

A thermal therapy feedback control approach to control thermal dose using a moving power deposition field is developed and evaluated using simulations. A normal tissue safety objective is incorporated in the controller design by imposing constraints on temperature elevations at selected normal tissue locations. The proposed control technique consists of two stages. The first stage uses a model-based sliding mode controller that dynamically generates an 'ideal' power deposition profile which is generally unrealizable with available heating modalities. Subsequently, in order to approximately realize this spatially distributed idealized power deposition, a constrained quadratic optimizer is implemented to compute intensities and dwell times for a set of pre-selected power deposition fields created by a scanned focused transducer. The dwell times for various power deposition profiles are dynamically generated online as opposed to the commonly employed a priori-decided heating strategies. Dynamic intensity and trajectory generation safeguards the treatment outcome against modelling uncertainties and unknown disturbances. The controller is designed to enforce simultaneous activation of multiple normal tissue temperature constraints by rapidly switching between various power deposition profiles. The hypothesis behind the controller design is that the simultaneous activation of multiple constraints substantially reduces treatment time without compromising normal tissue safety. The controller performance and robustness with respect to parameter uncertainties is evaluated using simulations. The results demonstrate that the proposed controller can successfully deliver the desired thermal dose to the target while maintaining the temperatures at the user-specified normal tissue locations at or below the maximum allowable values. Although demonstrated for the case of a scanned focused ultrasound transducer, the developed approach can be extended to other heating modalities with moving deposition fields, such as external and interstitial ultrasound phased arrays, multiple radiofrequency needle applicators and microwave antennae.

Feedback↗

PubMed2006

ModelTest Server: a web-based tool for the statistical selection of models of nucleotide substitution online.

ModelTest server is a web-based application for the selection of models of nucleotide substitution using the program ModelTest. The server takes as input a text file with likelihood scores for the set of candidate models. Models can be selected with hierarchical likelihood ratio tests, or with the Akaike or Bayesian information criteria. The output includes several statistics for the assessment of model selection uncertainty, for model averaging or to estimate the relative importance of model parameters. The server can be accessed at http://darwin.uvigo.es/software/modeltest_server.html.

Base Composition↗

PubMed2005

Assessment of plutonium exposures for an epidemiological study of US nuclear workers.

An ongoing case-control study evaluating the association between workplace external radiation exposures and leukaemia mortality required an assessment of internal plutonium exposures as a potential confounder. Of the study participants, 1,092 were employed at four Department of Energy sites where plutonium-bearing materials were processed or stored. Exposures were assessed by first categorising exposure potentials based on available bioassay data, then estimating doses for workers in the highest categories using recent recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Given the aetiology of leukaemia, equivalent dose to active bone marrow was chosen as the exposure variable. There were 556 workers each with at least one plutonium bioassay result, assigned to one of three evaluation categories. Dose estimates were made for 115 workers resulting in a collective equivalent dose of 2.1 person-Sv for 2,822 exposure-years, compared with 29.8 person-Sv estimated from photon exposures. Modelling uncertainties were examined by comparison of results from independent analyses and by Monte Carlo simulation.

Case-Control Studies↗

PubMed2001

Search for quadrupole strength in the electroexcitation of the delta+(1232).

High-precision 1H(e,e'p)pi(0) measurements at Q2 = 0.126 (GeV/c)2 are reported, which allow the determination of quadrupole amplitudes in the gamma*N-->Delta transition; they simultaneously test the reliability of electroproduction models. The derived quadrupole-to-dipole ( I = 3/2) amplitude ratios, R(SM) = (-6.5+/-0.2(stat+sys)+/-2.5(mod))% and R(EM) = (-2.1+/-0.2(stat+sys)+/-2.0(mod))%, are dominated by model error. Previous R(SM) and R(EM) results should be reconsidered after the model uncertainties associated with the method of their extraction are taken into account.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Measurements of the branching fraction and CP-violation asymmetries in B0-->f0(980)K0S.

We present measurements of the branching fraction and CP-violating asymmetries in the decay B0-->f0(980)K0S. The results are obtained from a data sample of 123 x 10(6) Upsilon(4S)-->BB decays. From a time-dependent maximum likelihood fit, we measure the branching fraction B(B0-->f0(980)(-->pi+pi-)K0)=(6.0+/-0.9+/-0.6+/-1.2)x10(-6), the mixing-induced CP violation parameter S=-1.62(+0.56)(-0.51)+/-0.09+/-0.04, and the direct CP violation parameter C=0.27+/-0.36+/-0.10+/-0.07, where the first errors are statistical, the second systematic, and the third due to model uncertainties. We measure the f0(980) mass and width to be mf0(980)=(980.6+/-4.1+/-0.5+/-4.0) MeV/c2 and Gammaf0(980)=(43(+12)(-9)+/-3+/-9) MeV/c2, respectively.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2002

Influence of safety measures on the risks of transporting dangerous goods through road tunnels.

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Uncertainty distribution associated with estimating a proportion in microbial risk assessment.

The uncertainty associated with estimates should be taken into account in quantitative risk assessment. Each input's uncertainty can be characterized through a probabilistic distribution for use under Monte Carlo simulations. In this study, the sampling uncertainty associated with estimating a low proportion on the basis of a small sample size was considered. A common application in microbial risk assessment is the estimation of a prevalence, proportion of contaminated food products, on the basis of few tested units. Three Bayesian approaches (based on beta(0, 0), beta(1/2, 1/2), and beta(l, 1)) and one frequentist approach (based on the frequentist confidence distribution) were compared and evaluated on the basis of simulations. For small samples, we demonstrated some differences between the four tested methods. We concluded that the better method depends on the true proportion of contaminated products, which is by definition unknown in common practice. When no prior information is available, we recommend the beta (1/2, 1/2) prior or the confidence distribution. To illustrate the importance of these differences, the four methods were used in an applied example. We performed two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the proportion of cold smoked salmon packs contaminated by Listeria monocytogenes, one dimension representing within-factory uncertainty, modeled by each of the four studied methods, and the other dimension representing variability between companies.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic magnesium sulphate for 9996 women with pre-eclampsia from 33 countries: economic evaluation of the Magpie Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of using magnesium sulphate for pre-eclampsia to prevent eclampsia. DESIGN: Multinational trial-based economic evaluation. SETTING: Thirty-three countries participating in the Magnesium Sulphate for Prevention of Eclampsia (Magpie) Trial. POPULATION: Women (9996) with pre-eclampsia from the Magpie Trial. METHODS: Outcome and hospital resource use data were available for the trial period from the Magpie Trial. Country-specific unit costs (U.S. dollar, year 2001) were obtained subsequently from participating hospitals by questionnaire. Cost-effectiveness was estimated for three categories of countries grouped by gross national income (GNI) into high, middle and low GNI countries using a regression model. Uncertainty was explored in sensitivity analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Eclampsia, hospital care costs and the incremental cost per case of eclampsia prevented. RESULTS: The number of women with pre-eclampsia who needed to receive magnesium sulphate to prevent one case of eclampsia was 324 [95% confidence interval (CI) 122, infinity] in high, 184 (95% CI 91, 6798) in middle and 43 (95% CI 30, 68) in low GNI countries. The additional hospital care cost per woman receiving magnesium sulphate was $65, $13 and $11, respectively. The incremental cost of preventing one case of eclampsia was $21,202 in high, $2473 in middle and $456 in low GNI countries. Reserving treatment for severe pre-eclampsia would lower these estimates to $12,942, $1179 and $263. CONCLUSIONS: Magnesium sulphate for pre-eclampsia costs less and prevents more eclampsia in low GNI than in high GNI countries. Cost-effectiveness substantially improves if it is used only for severe pre-eclampsia, or the purchase price is reduced in low GNI countries.

Anticonvulsants↗

PubMed2003

Efficiency robust tests for mapping quantitative trait loci using extremely discordant sib pairs.

In 1972, Haseman and Elston proposed a pioneering regression method for mapping quantitative trait loci using randomly selected sib pairs. Recently, the statistical power of their method was shown to be increased when extremely discordant sib pairs are ascertained. While the precise genetic model may not be known, prior information that constrains IBD probabilities is often available. We investigate properties of tests that are robust against model uncertainty and show that the power gain from further constraining IBD probabilities is marginal. The additional linkage information contained in the trait values can be incorporated by combining the Haseman-Elston regression method and a robust allele sharing test.

Chromosome Mapping↗

PubMed2026

PaNDA: Efficient Optimization of Phylogenetic Diversity in Networks.

Phylogenetic diversity (PD) plays an important role in biodiversity, conservation, and evolutionary studies by measuring the diversity of a set of taxa based on their phylogenetic relationships. In phylogenetic trees, a subset of k taxa with maximum PD can be found by a simple and efficient greedy algorithm. However, this algorithmic tractability is lost when considering phylogenetic networks, which incorporate reticulate evolutionary events such as hybridization and horizontal gene transfer. To address this challenge, we introduce PaNDA (Phylogenetic Network Diversity Algorithms), the first software package and interactive graphical user-interface for exploring, visualizing, and maximizing diversity in phylogenetic networks. PaNDA includes a novel algorithm to find a subset of k taxa with maximum diversity, running in polynomial time for networks of bounded scanwidth, a measure of tree-likeness of a network that grows slower than the well-known level measure. This algorithm considers the variant of PD on networks in which the branch lengths of all paths from the root to the selected taxa contribute towards their diversity. We demonstrate the scalability of this algorithm on simulated networks, successfully analyzing level-15 networks with up to 200 taxa in seconds. We also provide a proof-of-concept analysis using a phylogenetic network on Xiphophorus species, illustrating how the tool can support diversity studies based on real genomic data. The software is easily installable and freely available at https://github.com/nholtgrefe/panda. Additionally, we extend the definition of PD to semi-directed phylogenetic networks, which are mixed graphs increasingly used in phylogenetic analysis to model uncertainty of the root location. We prove that finding a subset of k taxa with maximum diversity remains NP-hard on semi-directed networks, but do present a polynomial-time algorithm for networks with bounded level.

network↗

PubMed2005

Cost-minimization analysis of treprostinil vs. epoprostenol as an alternate to oral therapy non-responders for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: Idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Treprostinil was compared to epoprostenol for the economic impact of treating IPAH patients who failed or were not candidates for bosentan. METHODS: The model was a cost-minimization analysis, assuming clinical equivalence was achieved by proper dosing of both drugs, in terms of survival and surrogate measures. Two theoretical cohorts of 270 patients were treated with subcutaneous treprostinil and intravenous epoprostenol, and were evaluated over 3 years using a spreadsheet model. Annual survival rates were estimated for the cohorts so that at endpoint 114 (42%) patients survived in both groups. The model utilized resource valuation data for medication and supply costs from Medicare; hospital, consultation, surgical, and diagnostic procedural fees from North Carolina hospitals; and costs to treat adverse events from published sources. Costs were obtained from standard lists and were presented as 2003 US dollars, discounted at 3%. Sensitivity analyses were performed testing all model uncertainties. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, treprostinil demonstrated savings of 22,701 US dollars and 37,433 US dollars per patient over 1- and 3-year time horizons, respectively. The greatest savings came from reduced or minimal hospitalizations attributed to the dose titration and treatment of adverse events, such as sepsis, associated with epoprostenol and its delivery system. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses resulted in average 3-year cost-savings of 41,051 US dollars (Standard Deviation = 13,902 US dollars) per patient. CONCLUSIONS: By initiating and continuing treatment with treprostinil over a 3-year period, the economic burden associated with IPAH may be reduced compared to treatment with epoprostenol. The greatest saving with treprostinil was attributed to decreased sepsis.

Administration, Oral↗

PubMed1993

Simultaneous discrimination of the spatial frequency and contrast of periodic stimuli.

Discrimination thresholds for spatial frequency and contrast were measured as a function of (1) the spatial-frequency bandwidth of the stimuli, (2) the reference contrast of the stimuli, and (3) whether the observer knew on which dimension, spatial frequency or contrast, the stimuli would differ. Relative bandwidth was manipulated by a one-dimensional Gaussian window and varied from 0.25 to 2.0 octaves. The results of two different tasks were compared. In a single-judgment task the observer knew on which dimension the stimuli would differ, and discrimination thresholds were measured in a standard two-interval forced-choice staircase procedure. In a dual-judgment task the dimension on which the stimuli differed varied from trial to trial. In this task the observer made two judgments on each trial in a modified two-interval forced-choice procedure: (1) on which dimension the stimuli differed and (2) in which interval the stimulus with the higher spatial frequency or contrast appeared. Thresholds were measured by five interleaved staircases for five reference contrast levels that varied from 0.02 to 0.32. Thresholds for both spatial frequency and contrast increased with increasing stimulus bandwidth and decreased with increasing stimulus contrast. Thresholds were, on average, 1.8 times higher in the dual-judgment task than in the single-judgment task, independent of the stimulus contrast and the bandwidth. A stimulus-uncertainty model is described that accounts for the difference between thresholds in the single- and the dual-judgment tasks.

Contrast Sensitivity↗