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PubMed1996

Cultural aspects of ageing: gender and inter-generational issues.

A broad review is made of the economic, social and political developments that accompanied the 20th century demographic transition in the developed industrialized societies of Europe and North America and their implications for older people, emphasizing changes in work patterns, the position of women, family and household structures. The denigration of older people is not new, but there is greater consciousness of the disadvantaging aspects of ageist expressions. The different stages of economic development and family systems and norms in developing societies now undergoing the demographic transition in Asia and elsewhere are likely to make the lives of older people there very different from those experienced during the transition period in Europe.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1997

[Trends in birth rates, general, infantile and neonatal mortality in Chile from 1850 to date].

BACKGROUND: Chile has experienced great changes in its health conditions, due to economical, social and demographic phenomena. AIM: To underline the moment of the demographic transition in Chile by means of a chronological epidemiological study, using available information. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data was obtained from registries of the National Statistical Office, General Statistics Direction and National Institute of Statistics. RESULTS: Birth rate was 41/1000 in 1850, remained stable until the thirties, decreased to 35/1000 in 1965, to 21.3/1000 in 1978 and to 20.5/1000 in 1994. The mortality rate increased from 20.3 to 37/1000 from 1850 to 1901 and the it descended to 5.50/1000 in 1993. The annual population growth was 1% in the forties, increased to 2.5% in 1965 and is 1.6% at the present. The population thus increased from 1,400,000 inhabitants in 1850 to 14,000,000 in 1994. The nuptial rate has remained between 7 and 8/1000 since 1934. Infantile mortality was 337 per 1000 newborns in 1950 and dropped to 12 in 1994. It represented 36% of the total mortality until the sixties, and now represents only 5%. This has contributed to the increase in life expectancy and ageing of our population. Neonatal mortality dropped from 136 per 1000 newborns in 1915 to 6.8 in 1994. Fetal mortality changed from 50 per 1000 newborns in 1936 to 5.3 in 1993. CONCLUSIONS: Several causes have contributed to the changes in the above mentioned indicators. Currently, we are in the third stage of a Demographic transition that began in the sixties.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Aging: a new dimension in health in Mexico].

The epidemiologic and demographic transitions have resulted in demographic aging of the Mexican population, increasing the absolute number and percentage of the elderly population. While in 1990, 3.1 million of persons were 65 and older constituting 3.7% of the country's population, these figures are projected to be 15.2 million and 11.7% by 2030. The growing demands on health care that this process involves will be centred on chronic and degenerative diseases and disabilities. Existing information indicates that health conditions and disabilities have greater incidences after the age of 75, and that they occur earlier and have more impact on the female population. Information about mortality organized by causes shows that the oldest population is also experiencing a transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases. These shifts have been observed in recent decades and they continue to occur. The degree of progress depends upon the economic and social situation: thus changes are as diverse and heterogeneous as the socioeconomic conditions within the nation. In any case, the advancing aging process and its relationship with diseases and disabilities points out necessary adjustments within the health system. New circumstances are brought into existence by an increasing importance of morbidity and co-morbidity, creating a need for modification of the models for clinic and hospital care, and the realization that the family maintains its central role as the main resource and care giver for the elderly.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1989

The demographic evolution of human populations: the role of selection and environmental factors.

Selection (genetic and cultural) and environmental variation are the principal mechanisms determining patterns of demographic change in human populations. Conditions exist under which the nature and intensity of these forces can be inferred from temporal trends in the demographic variables. These conditions, which can be expressed in terms of relations between the Malthusian parameter and population entropy, provide a means for evaluating the effect of selective and nonselective factors on demographic trends in human populations. The distinction between the roles of selection and environmental factors is illustrated by a study of the demographic transition in Sweden (1778-1965). This study shows that demographic changes during the pre- and posttransitional phases are determined mainly by environmental factors, whereas the changes during the transitional phase are mainly due to cultural selection. This analysis provides, for all three phases of the demographic transition, quantitative measures of the intensity of the forces (selective and nonselective) acting on both mortality and fecundity distributions.

Anthropology, Cultural↗
PubMed1993

Implications of economic transition and demographics for financing pensions in the former socialist economies.

"This paper is concerned primarily with the financing of pensions, or the old-age income maintenance portion of the social security system. While the discussion here will be limited to Hungary and Poland, most of the post-socialist countries of East and Central Europe and of the former Soviet Union face similar problems." The author suggests "a set of alternative pension financing strategies....A novel approach is to replace the payroll tax with part of a value-added tax, which may be a good short run solution to current financial crises of the pension systems in these countries."

Developed Countries↗
PubMed2004

Current status of communicable and non-communicable diseases in India.

India is going through a period of transition, both epidemiological and demographic transition. Infectious diseases are still persisting as major health problems in spite of having national programmes for the control of most of these diseases for almost half a century now. This paper focuses on two national programmes: the success story of the National Leprosy Eradication Programme; and the National Anti-Malaria Programme that has failed to achieve its objectives. There are re-emerging infectious diseases which are adding to the burden of diseases. In addition, there is an increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases as a result of lifestyle changes and urbanization. These are the challenges that are to be tackled in the new millennium.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

The demographic system of a Mediterranean island: Mykonos, Greece 1859-1959.

"This paper is an attempt to examine the demographic distinctiveness of island populations. The population of the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1859 to 1959 is used. Using the results obtained from family reconstitution and inverse projection the inter-relations of the major demographic components are described. The pre-transitional demographic system of Mykonos was found to have been characterised by the combination of low mortality and low marital though moderately high overall fertility. The resulting high population growth was counterbalanced by high emigration which kept the island population almost constant. Mortality and fertility experienced parallel and rapid decline. In both pre- and transitional Mykonos fertility rather than mortality seems to have been the main factor responsible for the changes in population growth. The findings point to a demographic distinctiveness of Mediterranean island populations."

Demography↗
PubMed2003

Time trends and determinants of completed family size in a rural community from the Basque area of Spain (1800-1969).

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.

Adult↗
PubMed1986

Foreign workers in Kuwait: implications for the Kuwaiti labor force.

An analysis of the foreign population in Kuwait shows that foreign nationals make up 60 percent of the population and 78 percent of the labor force in Kuwait. The implications of these figures for the Kuwaiti labor force are discussed by analyzing the occupational structures of Kuwaitis and non-Kuwaitis. "Structural analysis of the labor force indicates that 62 percent of Kuwaiti males are concentrated in administrative and service occupations while their percentage in sales and production work has declined during 1970-80. This demonstrates the need for reorienting educational/training programs and changing Kuwaiti attitudes towards manual work to ensure the realization of the 'Kuwaitization' process, and balance the nationals with foreign nationals." mortality has stabilized at relatively high levels and there is resistance to family planning. The author concludes that the main cause of the stalling of the demographic transition process is to be found in the role of the state and the dynamics of the social structure and that "demographic trends will depend more on the changes in social structure, land reforms, and response of the formal governing system to the needs of the underprivileged sections of the society, rather than on the health and family planning policies."

Asia↗
PubMed1991

An overview of the aging population in Korea.

The author examines demographic aging in South Korea in light of the country's near-completion of the demographic transition. "An attempt is made to describe the general features of the present situation of the Korean elderly by reviewing several aspects of the aging phenomenon in Korea, namely, the demographic, family, psychological, and social welfare aspects." (SUMMARY IN KOR)

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Demographic and epidemiologic transition: problems for research].

In this paper the inherent characteristics of the demographic and epidemiological transitions are described. The main differences of the transitions between Western Europe of the 18th and 19th centuries and of the Latin American countries of the 20th century are pointed out. The demographic transition in Mexico is briefly described and the attributes that make it sui generis are indicated. It is emphasized that there has been a slowing of the rate of decline in fertility in Mexico since 1980 and some factors likely associated with this phenomenon are propounded. The different schools of thought regarding the changes of infant mortality during the transition are succinctly reviewed. The hypothesis that reductions of the birth rates induce reductions of infant mortality rates is supported by general theoretical results of the population dynamics of infectious diseases and some empirical evidences.

Economics↗
PubMed1998

The coevolution of human fertility and wealth inheritance strategies.

Life history theory concerns the scheduling of births and the level of parental investment in each offspring. In most human societies the inheritance of wealth is an important part of parental investment. Patterns of wealth inheritance and other reproductive decisions, such as family size, would be expected to influence each other. Here I present an adaptive model of human reproductive decision-making, using a state-dependent dynamic model. Two decisions made by parents are considered: when to have another baby, and thus the pattern of reproduction through life; and how to allocate resources between children at the end of the parents' life. Optimal decision rules are those that maximize the number of grandchildren. Decisions are assumed to depend on the state of the parent, which is described at any time by two variables: number of living sons, and wealth. The dynamics of the model are based on a traditional African pastoralist system, but it is general enough to approximate to any means of subsistence where an increase in the amount of wealth owned increases the capacity for future production of resources. The model is used to show that, in the unpredictable environment of a traditional pastoralist society, high fertility and a biasing of wealth inheritance to a small number of children are frequently optimal. Most such societies are now undergoing a transition to lower fertility, known as the demographic transition. The effects on fertility and wealth inheritance strategies of reducing mortality risks, reducing the unpredictability of the environment and increasing the costs of raising children are explored. Reducing mortality has little effect on completed family sizes of living children or on the wealth they inherit. Increasing the costs of raising children decreases optimal fertility and increases the inheritance left to each child at each level of wealth, and has the potential to reduce fertility to very low levels. The results offer an explanation for why wealthy families are frequently also those with the smallest number of children in heterogeneous, post-transition societies.

Africa↗
PubMed1990

Social and demographic principles in an alternative typology of cities.

"The authors challenge some conventional notions regarding the USSR's urban hierarchy and settlement network and the basis for functional city classifications. They assign a key role to technological and social change in the overall growth and development process and downplay the role of territorial production complexes vis-a-vis large cities as major regulators of future economic development. Considerable attention is devoted to identifying stages of urban interaction (especially via migration and innovation diffusion) with the rural hinterland and of social-demographic transformations accompanying scientific and technical progress. A city typology based on stages in the 'social-demographic transition' is outlined briefly."

Demography↗
PubMed1993

Population: the dynamics of change.

"This introductory contribution will attempt to give an overview of the demographic analysis of population change under a global perspective and with a long time horizon. Obviously in this context it can only provide some selected highlights which will be grouped around three themes: population growth and the concept of demographic transitions; components of population dynamics; and possible future population trends in major world regions."

Demography↗
PubMed1988

A stochastic version of the Malthusian Trap Model: consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's.

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross-sectional correlation between these 2 growth rates under 2 additional assumptions: 1) the relations in the model at national levels include country-specific and time-invariant random components, and 2) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these 2 assumptions can explain near-0 correlations between the 2 growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However, it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.

Demography↗
PubMed1992

The weak impact of female labour force participation on Norwegian third-birth rates.

"Individual-level retrospective data from the [Norwegian] Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 are used to estimate the effects of various employment variables on the third-birth rates among post-war Norwegian birth cohorts. Women who appear to have a strong work orientation, and may face relatively high opportunity costs of childbearing, do not have particularly low probability of advancing to parity three. This is consistent with previous Swedish and British studies, and lends some support to the view that other factors than stronger employment preferences and increased job opportunities have been largely responsible for the 'second demographic transition' in Europe." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Disability-free life expectancy of elderly people in a population undergoing demographic and epidemiologic transition.

BACKGROUND: the major purpose of health and social policy in old age is to increase quality of life of elderly people. In many demographically developing countries, life expectancy is increasing very rapidly, but little information is available on survival free of disability. OBJECTIVES: to determine prevalence and severity of disability among the elderly population and to compare disability-free life expectancy and self-care life expectancy among different age groups and between men and women. DESIGN: a cross-sectional multi-stage random sample survey and routine life tables for Thailand. SETTING: national population of Thailand. SUBJECTS: 4,048 elderly subjects aged 60+ years. RESULTS: prevalence rates (95% CI) of long-term disability and dependency in self-care activities of daily living were 19% (95% CI 17.8, 20.2) and 6.9% (6.1, 7.7) respectively. Rates of disabilities increased with age and women were more disabled than men. The life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy at age 60 for men were 20.3 years and 16.4 years, and for women were 23.9 years and 18.2 years respectively. Self-care life expectancies at age 60, calculated from the prevalence of needing help with basic self-care activities, were 18.6 years and 21.3 years for men and women respectively. Women spent proportionately more of their longer life expectancy in a disabled state than men. Men and women can, respectively, expect that 19% and 24% of their life expectancy at age 60 will be spent in a disabled state, but may expect only about 10% of their life expectancy to be spent unable to manage basic self-care activities of daily living. CONCLUSION: long-term disability is common in old age, affecting a quarter of people over 60 years. However, self-care problems are much less common and suggest that the social and health care consequences of demographic transitions are over-estimated by use of simple questions about limiting long-standing disability. Self-care life expectancy provides a useful monitoring tool for censuses and national disability surveys.

Age Factors↗