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Haloacetic acids in the aquatic environment. Part II: ecological risk assessment.

Haloacetic acids (HAAs) are environmental contaminants found in aquatic ecosystems throughout the world as a result of both anthropogenic and natural production. The ecological risk posed by these compounds to organisms in freshwater environments, with a specific focus on aquatic macrophytes, was characterized. The plants evaluated were Lemna gibba, Myriophyllum spicatum and M. sibiricum and the HAAs screened were monochloroacetic acid (MCA), dichloroacetic acid (DCA), trichloroacetic acid (TCA), trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and chlorodifluoroacetic acid (CDFA). Laboratory toxicity data formed the basis of the risk assessment, but field studies were also utilized. The estimated risk was calculated using hazard quotients (HQ), as well as effect measure distributions (EMD) in a modified probabilistic ecological risk assessment. EMDs were used to estimate HAA thresholds of toxicity for use in HQ assessments. This threshold was found to be a more sensitive measure of low toxicity than the no observed effect concentrations (NOEC) or the effective concentration (EC10). Using both deterministic and probabilistic methods, it was found that HAAs do not pose a significant risk to freshwater macrophytes at current environmental concentrations in Canada, Europe or Africa for both single compound and mixture exposures. Still, HAAs are generally found as mixtures and their potential interactions are not fully understood, rendering this phase of the assessment uncertain and justifying further effects characterization. TCA in some environments poses a slight risk to phytoplankton and future concentrations of TFA and CDFA are likely to increase due to their recalcitrant nature, warranting continued environmental surveillance of HAAs.

Acetates↗

Nonlinear analysis of irregular animal vocalizations.

Animal vocalizations range from almost periodic vocal-fold vibration to completely atonal turbulent noise. Between these two extremes, a variety of nonlinear dynamics such as limit cycles, subharmonics, biphonation, and chaotic episodes have been recently observed. These observations imply possible functional roles of nonlinear dynamics in animal acoustic communication. Nonlinear dynamics may also provide insight into the degree to which detailed features of vocalizations are under close neural control, as opposed to more directly reflecting biomechanical properties of the vibrating vocal folds themselves. So far, nonlinear dynamical structures of animal voices have been mainly studied with spectrograms. In this study, the deterministic versus stochastic (DVS) prediction technique was used to quantify the amount of nonlinearity in three animal vocalizations: macaque screams, piglet screams, and dog barks. Results showed that in vocalizations with pronounced harmonic components (adult macaque screams, certain piglet screams, and dog barks), deterministic nonlinear prediction was clearly more powerful than stochastic linear prediction. The difference, termed low-dimensional nonlinearity measure (LNM), indicates the presence of a low-dimensional attractor. In highly irregular signals such as juvenile macaque screams, piglet screams, and some dog barks, the detectable amount of nonlinearity was comparatively small. Analyzing 120 samples of dog barks, it was further shown that the harmonic-to-noise ratio (HNR) was positively correlated with LNM. It is concluded that nonlinear analysis is primarily useful in animal vocalizations with strong harmonic components (including subharmonics and biphonation) or low-dimensional chaos.

Animals↗

Clocked cell cycle clocks.

The cell division cycle of both mammalian cells and microorganisms, which apparently has both deterministic and probabilistic features, is a clock of sorts in that the sequence of events that comprise it measures time under a given set of environmental conditions. The cell division cycle may itself be regulated by a programmable clock that, under certain conditions, can generate circadian periodicities by interaction with a circadian pacemaker. These clocks must insert time segments into the cell division cycle in order to generate the observed variability in cellular generation times.

Animals↗

Exploring the impact of prevalence and mortality on incidence of dementia in the oldest old: the sensitivity of a deterministic approach.

BACKGROUND: There has been considerable debate about whether dementia is an age-related or an aging-related phenomenon. When the evidence is restricted to prevalence data, the inferences are not sound because incidence, mortality and differential mortality are not taken into account. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the use and sensitivity of a deterministic model based on the relationship between mortality, incidence and prevalence with the example of the chronic disease dementia. DESIGN: The simple deterministic model used here allows the calculation of one component given the other three. The sensitivity of calculated incidence to individual and combined changes in mortality, differential mortality (as measured by the mortality odds ratio) and prevalence is examined using published data. MAIN RESULTS: Calculated incidence continues to increase with age despite extreme but plausible changes in each of the other components. Calculated incidence declines amongst the oldest old only when the changes are combined. CONCLUSION: The deterministic model is shown to provide robust interrogation of the relationship between prevalence, incidence and survival. The effect incidence and survival have on the age-related and aging-related debate is illustrated. Only with extreme assumptions can the incidence of dementia be lessened. Clearly, more information on the oldest old is needed, but incidence studies of sufficient size at such great ages are problematic, and therefore there is a need to use flexible models for maximising the value of empirical data.

Aged↗

Stochastic modeling of diffuse pesticide losses from a small agricultural catchment.

The objective of this study was to identify the main sources of variation in pesticide losses at field and catchment scales using the dual permeability model MACRO. Stochastic simulations of the leaching of the herbicide MCPA (4-chloro-2-methylphenoxyacetic acid) were compared with seven years of measured concentrations in a stream draining a small agricultural catchment and one year of measured concentrations at the outlet of a field located within the catchment. MACRO was parameterized from measured probability distributions accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and local pedotransfer functions derived from information gathered in field- and catchment-scale soil surveys. At the field scale, a single deterministic simulation using the means of the input distributions was also performed. The deterministic run failed to reproduce the summer outflows when most leaching occurred, and greatly underestimated pesticide leaching. In contrast, the stochastic simulations successfully predicted the hydrologic response of the field and catchment and there was a good resemblance between the simulations and measured MCPA concentrations at the field outlet. At the catchment scale, the stochastic approach underestimated the concentrations of MCPA in the stream, probably mostly due to point sources, but perhaps also because the distributions used for the input variables did not accurately reflect conditions in the catchment. Sensitivity analyses showed that the most important factors affecting MACRO modeled diffuse MCPA losses from this catchment were soil properties controlling macropore flow, precipitation following application, and organic carbon content.

Agriculture↗

Sustainable ecosystem management using optimal control theory: part 1 (deterministic systems).

The concept of sustainability, an abstract one by its nature, has been given a mathematical representation through the use of Fisher information as a measure. It is used to propose the sustainability hypotheses for dynamical systems, which has paved the way to achieve sustainable development through externally enforced control schemes. For natural systems, this refers to the task of ecosystem management, which is complicated due the lack of clear objectives. This work attempts to incorporate the idea of sustainability in ecosystem management. The natural regulation of ecosystems suggests two possible control options, top-down control and bottom-up control. A comparison of these two control philosophies is made on generic food chain models using the objectives derived from the sustainability hypotheses. Optimal control theory is used to derive the control profiles to handle the complex nature of the models and the objectives. The results indicate a strong relationship between the hypotheses and the dynamic behavior of the models, supporting the use of Fisher information as a measure. As regards to ecosystem management, it has been observed that top-down control is more aggressive but can result in instability, while bottom-up control is guaranteed to give a stable and improved dynamic response. The results also indicate that bottom-up control is a better option to affect shifts in the dynamic regimes of a system, which may be required to recover the system from a natural disaster like the hurricane Katrina.

Animals↗

Nonlinear dynamics indicates aging affects variability during gait.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the nature of variability present in time series generated from gait parameters of two different age groups via a nonlinear analysis. DESIGN: Measures of nonlinear dynamics were used to compare kinematic parameters between elderly and young females. BACKGROUND: Aging may lead to changes in motor variability during walking, which may explain the large incidence of falls in the elderly. METHODS: Twenty females, 10 younger (20-37 yr) and 10 older (71-79 yr) walked on a treadmill for 30 consecutive gait cycles. Time series from selected kinematic parameters of the right lower extremity were analyzed using nonlinear dynamics. The largest Lyapunov exponent and the correlation dimension of all time series, and the largest Lyapunov exponent of the original time series surrogated were calculated. Standard deviations and coefficient of variations were also calculated for selected discrete points from each gait cycle. Independent t-tests were used for statistical comparisons. RESULTS: The Lyapunov exponents were found to be significantly different from their surrogate counterparts. This indicates that the fluctuations observed in the time series may reflect deterministic processes by the neuromuscular system. The elderly exhibited significantly larger Lyapunov exponents and correlation dimensions for all parameters evaluated indicating local instability. The linear measures indicated that the elderly demonstrated significantly higher variability. CONCLUSIONS: The nonlinear analysis revealed that fluctuations in the time series of certain gait parameters are not random but display a deterministic behavior. This behavior may degrade with physiologic aging resulting in local instability. RELEVANCE: Elderly show increased local instability or inability to compensate to the natural stride-to-stride variations present during locomotion. We hypothesized that this may be the one of the reasons for the increases in falling due to aging. Future efforts should attempt to evaluate this hypothesis by making comparisons to pathological subjects (i.e. elderly fallers), and examine the sensitivity and specificity of the nonlinear methods used in this study to aid clinical assessment.

Adult↗

A stochastic mathematical model of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission in an intensive care unit: predicting the impact of interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the transmission rate of MRSA in an intensive care unit (ICU) in an 800 bed Australian teaching hospital and predict the impact of infection control interventions. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed which consisted of four compartments: colonised and uncolonised patients and contaminated and uncontaminated health-care workers (HCWs). Patient movements, MRSA acquisition and daily prevalence data were collected from an ICU over 939 days. Hand hygiene compliance and the probability of MRSA transmission from patient to HCW per discordant contact were measured during the study. Attack rate and reproduction ratio were estimated using Bayesian methods. The impact of a number of interventions on attack rate was estimated using both stochastic and deterministic versions of the model. RESULTS: The mean number of secondary cases arising from the ICU admission of colonised patients, also called the ward reproduction ratio, R(w), was estimated to be 0.50 (95% CI 0.39-0.62). The attack rate was one MRSA transmission per 160 (95% CI 130-210) uncolonised-patient days. Results were not sensitive to uncertainty in measured model parameters (hand hygiene rate and transmission probability per contact). Hand hygiene was predicted to be the most effective intervention. Decolonisation was predicted to be relatively ineffective. Increasing HCW numbers was predicted to increase MRSA transmission, in the absence of patient cohorting. The predictions of the stochastic model differed from those of the deterministic model, with lower levels of colonisation predicted by the stochastic model. CONCLUSIONS: The number of secondary cases of MRSA colonisation within the ICU in this study was below unity. Transmission of MRSA was sustained through admission of colonised patients. Stochastic model simulations give more realistic predictions in hospital ward settings than deterministic models. Increasing staff does not necessarily lead to reduced transmission of nosocomial pathogens.

Bayes Theorem↗

Brain-computer interaction research at the Computer Vision and Multimedia Laboratory, University of Geneva.

This paper describes the work being conducted in the domain of brain-computer interaction (BCI) at the Multimodal Interaction Group, Computer Vision and Multimedia Laboratory, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. The application focus of this work is on multimodal interaction rather than on rehabilitation, that is how to augment classical interaction by means of physiological measurements. Three main research topics are addressed. The first one concerns the more general problem of brain source activity recognition from EEGs. In contrast with classical deterministic approaches, we studied iterative robust stochastic based reconstruction procedures modeling source and noise statistics, to overcome known limitations of current techniques. We also developed procedures for optimal electroencephalogram (EEG) sensor system design in terms of placement and number of electrodes. The second topic is the study of BCI protocols and performance from an information-theoretic point of view. Various information rate measurements have been compared for assessing BCI abilities. The third research topic concerns the use of EEG and other physiological signals for assessing a user's emotional status.

Animals↗

Heterogeneity and probabilistic binding contributions to receptor-mediated cell detachment kinetics.

Biospecific cell adhesion is mediated by receptor-ligand bonds. Early theoretical work presented a deterministic analysis of receptor-mediated cell attachment and detachment for a homogeneous cell population. However, initial comparison of a deterministic framework to experimental detachment profiles of model "cells" (antibody-coated latex beads) did not show qualitative or quantitative agreement (Cozens-Roberts, C., D.A. Lauffenburger, and J.A. Quinn. 1990. Biophys. J. 58:857-872). Hence, we determine the contributions of population heterogeneity and probabilistic binding to the detachment behavior of this experimental system which was designed to minimize experimental and theoretical complications. This work also corrects an error in the numerical solution of the probabilistic model of receptor-mediated cell attachment and detachment developed previously (Cozens-Roberts, C., D.A. Lauffenburger, and J.A. Quinn. 1990. Biophys J. 58:841-856). Measurement of the population distribution of the number of receptors per bead has enabled us to explicitly consider the effect of receptor number heterogeneity within the cell-surface contact area. A deterministic framework that incorporates receptor number heterogeneity qualitatively and quantitatively accounts in large part for the model cell detachment data. Using measured and estimated parameter values for the model cell system, we estimate that about 90% of the observed kinetic detachment behavior originates from heterogeneity effects, while about 10% is due to probabilistic binding effects. In general, these relative contributions may differ for other systems.

Biophysical Phenomena↗

Sustainable ecosystem management using optimal control theory: part 2 (stochastic systems).

Sustainable development of ecosystems through external ecosystem management is assuming importance for the environmentalists. To that effect, previous work by the authors looked at the option of manipulating population dynamics of the species in an ecosystem to achieve sustainability. Fisher information is used as the quantifying measure of sustainability and optimal control theory is used to derive the control profiles. However, that work considered only deterministic systems. Uncertainty being prevalent in all systems, particularly in natural systems, this paper extends that work to analyse uncertain systems. Predator-prey models are used to model the species populations and different control philosophies are compared. Ito mean reverting process is used to model the stochastic process, and stochastic maximum principle is used to derive the control profiles. The results for the objective of FI variance minimization qualitatively agree with those for the deterministic system, while the results for the FI maximization objective differ. It is observed that the instability associated with the FI maximization objective for deterministic systems is absorbed by the noise introduced by the uncertainty. Quantitatively, it is observed that the degree of uncertainty, along with its presence, is also important to identify the most appropriate management strategy.

Animals↗

Dynamical chaos determines the variability of transcranial Doppler signals.

In order to estimate whether or not the variability of a timeseries of transcranial Doppler (TCD) waveforms is the result of a random or a deterministic process the following study was designed. From eight normal volunteers the middle cerebral artery blood flow velocities were measured for 50 sec and the maximum blood flow velocities (or waveforms) were analysed. From these waveforms socalled attractors were reconstructed and shown in a two dimensional phase portrait. The attractor of the TCD timeseries shows the entire range of states the cardiovascular system can display. The geometric structure of the attractor can be estimated by calculation of the correlation dimension D2. The correlation dimension D2 shows that the time evolution of the TCD timeseries is essentially nonperiodic and can be characterized by low dimensional chaos. It has been shown that the D2 value during hypocapnia has a significant higher value compared to the D2 values during normocapnia. The biological and clinical significance of these observations are outlined.

Adult↗

Patient and staff dosimetry in vertebroplasty.

STUDY DESIGN: Eleven vertebroplasty operations were studied in terms of radiation dose. OBJECTIVE: Doses to patients and staff associated with vertebroplasty were measured. Occupational doses were compared with the annual dose limits, and the effectiveness of the used radiation protection means was estimated. Patient dose was estimated by means of both surface and effective dose, and the radiation-induced risk was evaluated. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Vertebroplasty is a recent minimally invasive technique for the restoration of vertebral body fractures. It involves fluoroscopic exposure, and so, it demands dose measurements for both patient and staff exposed to radiation. METHODS: Thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) were placed on the medical personnel and the effective dose was derived. Slow films were placed to patients' skin to measure entrance surface dose. Furthermore, a Rando phantom loaded with TLDs was irradiated under conditions simulating vertebroplasty, in order to estimate effective dose to the patient. RESULTS: Mean fluoroscopy time was 27.7 minutes. Patient's mean skin dose was 688 mGy, while effective dose was calculated to be 34.45 mGy. It was estimated that the primary operator can perform about 150 vertebroplasty operations annually without exceeding the annual dose constraints, whereas occupational dose can be reduced by 76% using mobile shielding. CONCLUSIONS: Measures have to be taken to reduce patient's skin dose, which, in extreme cases, may be close to deterministic effects threshold. The highest dose rates, recorded during the procedure, were found for primary operator's hands and chest when no shielding was used.

Fluoroscopy↗

Correlation entropy of synaptic input-output dynamics.

The responses of synapses in the neocortex show highly stochastic and nonlinear behavior. The microscopic dynamics underlying this behavior, and its computational consequences during natural patterns of synaptic input, are not explained by conventional macroscopic models of deterministic ensemble mean dynamics. Here, we introduce the correlation entropy of the synaptic input-output map as a measure of synaptic reliability which explicitly includes the microscopic dynamics. Applying this to experimental data, we find that cortical synapses show a low-dimensional chaos driven by the natural input pattern.

Action Potentials↗

Physical causality and brain theories.

The history of deterministic theories in physics is reviewed, and four levels of determinism are found: 1) absolute, 2) asymptotic, 3) probabilistic, and 4) absolute indeterminism. Nagel's view that all causal laws are deterministic in the frame of the state descriptions to which they refer is acknowledged, but the inevitability of macroscopic measurement noise may hint that dynamical laws are innately noisy. Quantum mechanical effects are not the noise source. Symmetry and broken symmetry are introduced as physical concepts that can account both for lawfulness, and for the hierarchical nature of the universe. Physical ideas are chosen over those of formal systems with indirect self-reference as the basis of a global theory of brains. By exclusion it is concluded that only a statistical thermodynamics, combined with nonlinear mechanics, has the features needed for theorizing about brains in a physical sense. Quantum mechanics is judged not to be relevant. New statistical thermodynamic theories are briefly described, and their strengths and weaknesses noted. The question, "Why should neuroscience look to physics for its theories?" is raised and answered. Some concrete objectives for a program of theoretical research are stated.

Brain↗

A dynamic mechanical model for hand force in right angle nutrunner operation.

A deterministic mechanical model based on physical tool parameters was used for estimating static and dynamic hand forces from kinematic measurements. We investigated the effects of target torque (25, 40, and 55 Nm) and threaded fastener joint hardness (35-, 150-, 300-, 500-, and 900-ms torque buildup time) on hand force. Estimated hand force was affected by target torque and joint hardness. Peak and average dynamic hand force was least for the hard joint (35-ms buildup) and greatest for the medium hardness joint (150-ms buildup). Tool inertia played the major role in reducing hand reaction force. Estimated hand force decreased when the inertial force component increased. Inertial force decreased by 366% when buildup time increased from 35 to 300 ms. Static modeling overestimated hand force; the error ranged from 10% for a soft joint to 40% for a hard joint. Results from direct hand force measurements using a strain gauge dynamometer showed that the dynamic model overestimated peak hand force by 9%. However, average hand force and force impulse were not significantly overestimated.

Hand Strength↗

Efficiency of multistage marker-assisted selection in the improvement of multiple quantitative traits.

The application of marker-assisted selection (MAS) to breeding programmes depends on its relative cost and the expected economic return compared to conventional phenotypic selection. The relative efficiency of MAS can be increased through a two-stage selection scheme or through marker-based, multiple-trait improvement. However, the effectiveness of these alternatives has not been quantified. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of MAS relative to conventional phenotypic selection and marker-only selection in multistage selection for the improvement of multiple traits. We further incorporate the costs of obtaining measurements on phenotypic characters and marker loci into the objective function to evaluate the efficiency of MAS with respect to the gain per unit cost. Deterministic analyses indicate that excluding costs, multiple-trait MAS can be used to increase the aggregate breeding values in quantitative characters and is expected to be more effective than conventional selection or single-trait MAS. Two-stage MAS has a slightly reduced gain because of culling in the first stage. If the objective function is to maximize the gain per unit cost, multiple-trait MAS is inferior to phenotypic selection in most of the selection schemes investigated when the cost ratio (r) of obtaining measurements on phenotypic characters to scoring marker loci is less than unity (r < or = 1.0) and the heritability (h2) is greater than 0.3. The efficiency of MAS increases as r increases and h2 decreases. For MAS to be more effective, it is necessary to decrease further the cost associated with molecular marker assays.

Chromosome Mapping↗

Risk prevention and policy-making in automatic systems.

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.

Accidents, Occupational↗