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PubMed2003

Impacts of environmental variability in open populations and communities: "inflation" in sink environments.

Ecological communities are typically open to the immigration and emigration of individuals, and also variable through time. In this paper we argue that interesting and potentially important effects arise when one splices together spatial fluxes and temporal variability. The particular system we examine is a sink habitat, where a species faces deterministic extinction but is rescued by recurrent immigration. We have shown, using a simple extension of the canonical exponential growth model in a time-varying environment, that variation "inflates" the average abundance of sink populations. We can analytically quantify the magnitude of this effect in several special cases (square-wave temporal variation and Gaussian stochastic variation). The inflationary effect can be large in "intermittent" sinks (where there are periods with positive growth), and when temporal variation is strongly autocorrelated. The effect appears to be robust to incorporation of demographic stochasticity (due to discrete birth-death-immigration processes), and to direct density dependence. With discrete generations, however, one can observe a wide range of effects of temporal variation, including depression as well as inflation. We argue that the inflationary effect of temporal variation in sink habitats can have important implications for community structure, because it can increase the average abundance (and hence local impacts) of species that on average are being excluded from a local community. We illustrate the latter effect using a familiar model of exploitative competition for a single limiting resource. We demonstrate that temporal variation can reverse local competitive dominance, even to the extent of allowing an inferior competitor maintained by immigration to exclude a competing species that would be locally superior in a constant environment.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1995

[Eighty years of Japanese immigration in Brazil].

"Japanese emigration to Brazil started in 1908 with some eight hundred subsidized contract workers for coffee plantations. Hard conditions made many of them flee, and the paulista government suppressed subsidies for these projects; however, the Japanese emigration to Brazil kept on under Japanese subsidies from 1925 until 1934 when Brazil imposed immigration quotas unfavorable to Japanese immigration. International circumstances in the late 1930s and local prohibition on the use of the Japanese language in Brazil caused many immigrants to return to Japan between 1939-1941. Emigration to Brazil restarted as diplomatic relations between Japan and Brazil were reestablished in 1952 but decreased in the late 1960s. Subsequent economic evolution in both countries caused Japanese emigrants in Brazil and their [descendants] to initiate dekasegui [labor] migration from Brazil to Japan as from the late 1980s." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Americas↗
PubMed2006

The Danish Civil Registration System. A cohort of eight million persons.

BACKGROUND: The Danish Civil Registration System (CRS) was established in 1968, where all persons alive and living in Denmark were registered. Among many other variables, it includes individual information on personal identification number, gender, date of birth, place of birth, place of residence, citizenship, continuously updated information on vital status, and the identity of parents and spouses. METHODS: To evaluate the quality and completeness of the information recorded on persons in the CRS, we considered all persons registered on November 4, 2005, i.e. all persons who were alive and resident in Denmark at least one day from April 2, 1968 to November 4, 2005, or in Greenland from May 1, 1972 to November 4, 2005. RESULTS: A total of 8,176,097 persons were registered. On November 4, 2005, 5,427,687 (66.4%) were alive and resident in Denmark, 56,920 (0.7%) were alive and resident in Greenland, 2,141,373 (26.2%) were dead, 21,160 (0.3%) had disappeared, and 528,957 (6.5%) had emigrated. Among persons born in Denmark 1960 or later the CRS contains complete information on maternal identity. Among persons born in Denmark 1970 or later the CRS contains complete information on paternal identity. Among women born in Denmark April 1935 or later the CRS contains complete information on all their children. Among males born in Denmark April 1945 or later the CRS contains complete information on all their children. The CRS contains complete information on: a) immigrations and emigrations from 1971 onwards, b) permanent residence in a Danish municipality from 1971 onwards, c) permanent residence in a municipality in Greenland from May 1972 onwards, and d) full address in Denmark from 1977 onwards. CONCLUSION: Data from the CRS is an important research tool in epidemiological research, which enables Danish researchers to carry out representative population-based studies on e.g. the potential clustering of disease and death in families and the potential association between residence and disease and death.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Deterministic modeling of negative cross-resistance strategies for use in transgenic host-plant resistance.

Negative cross-resistance refers to a situation in which an insect population that is tolerant (resistant, virulent) to one insecticide is hyper-sensitive (avirulent) to a second insecticide and insects hyper-sensitive to the first compound are tolerant to the second. Most research dealing with negative cross-resistance has focused on the molecular biology and chemical aspects of this phenomenon. We explored, from a population genetics perspective, whether negative cross-resistance is feasible in the control of an insect population. As a first step towards this goal, we used a deterministic approach to evaluate different control scenarios and to identify some of the potential limitations of negative cross-resistance strategies. Specifically, we investigated how such approaches could be used in a host-plant resistance program. Homo- and heterozygous insect fitness influenced the effectiveness of the toxins in controlling the insect population. The negative cross-resistance strategy was most useful when the insects' virulence to both host-plant toxins was recessive. When virulence was dominant, there were many periods when intervention with an outside (or third) class of compounds, which had a different mode of action than that of the negative cross-resistance compounds, was needed to control the insect population. The greater the number of insect generations per plant generation, in the absence of immigration or emigration in the insect population, the greater the requirement for intervention with a third class of compound to maintain effective control of the insect population. When the toxins were rotated every insect generation, and virulence in the insect was recessive to both toxins, effective control of the insect population was maintained without intervention of a third class of compounds.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Spatial structure, environmental heterogeneity, and population dynamics: analysis of the coupled logistic map.

Spatial extent can have two important consequences for population dynamics: It can generate spatial structure, in which individuals interact more intensely with neighbors than with more distant conspecifics, and it allows for environmental heterogeneity, in which habitat quality varies spatially. Studies of these features are difficult to interpret because the models are complex and sometimes idiosyncratic. Here we analyze one of the simplest possible spatial population models, to understand the mathematical basis for the observed patterns: two patches coupled by dispersal, with dynamics in each patch governed by the logistic map. With suitable choices of parameters, this model can represent spatial structure, environmental heterogeneity, or both in combination. We synthesize previous work and new analyses on this model, with two goals: to provide a comprehensive baseline to aid our understanding of more complex spatial models, and to generate predictions about the effects of spatial structure and environmental heterogeneity on population dynamics. Spatial structure alone can generate positive, negative, or zero spatial correlations between patches when dispersal rates are high, medium, or low relative to the complexity of the local dynamics. It can also lead to quasiperiodicity and hyperchaos, which are not present in the nonspatial model. With density-independent dispersal, spatial structure cannot destabilize equilibria or periodic orbits that would be stable in the absence of space. When densities in the two patches are uncorrelated, the probability that the population in a patch reaches extreme low densities is reduced relative to the same patch in isolation; this "rescue effect" would reduce the probability of metapopulation extinction beyond the simple effect of spreading of risk. Pure environmental heterogeneity always produces positive spatial correlations. The dynamics of the entire population is approximated by a nonspatial model with mean patch characteristics. This approximation worsens as the difference between the patches increases and the dispersal rate decreases: Under extreme conditions, destabilization of equilibria and periodic orbits occurs at mean parameter values lower than those predicted by the mean parameters. Apparent within-patch dynamics are distorted: The local population appears to have the wrong growth parameter and a constant number of immigrants (or emigrants) per generation. Adding environmental heterogeneity to spatial structure increases the occurrence of spatially correlated population dynamics, but the resulting temporal dynamics are more complex than would be predicted by the mean parameter values. The three classes of spatial pattern (positive, negative, and zero correlation), while still mathematically distinct, become increasingly similar phenomenologically.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Social organization of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in the Qinling Mountains, Central China.

Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys were observed for 197 days from 2000 to 2003 in the Qinling Mountains, Central China. The study group was provisioned in 2001 allowing detailed observations of social organization based on individual identification. The group was composed of 45-82 monkeys, all of which belonged to one of 6-8 one-male units (OMU) that foraged to form one big group. The average unit size was 9.0+/-2.3, 8+/-1.5 in the winter and 11.1+/-2.0 in the spring. Immigration or emigration of one-male units to or from the foraging group was observed, as was migration of individuals in and out of OMU, especially for by subadult females and juveniles. Group size therefore tended to fluctuate with the number of OMU and the number of young monkeys present in the group. The OMU in the study area were smaller than those in Shennongjia area. The factors influencing the size of these OMU and the entire group are discussed.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1989

Validity of international, time trend, and migrant studies of dietary factors and disease risk.

A linear form relative risk model is used to identify circumstances in which various types of aggregate data lead to valid inferences on relative risk parameters. Upon making a random effects assumption, international or time trend data can lead to appropriate relative risk parameter estimation using iteratively reweighted least-squares procedures. Adequate confounding factor control, however, will typically require data on the distribution of confounding factors in each country or time period. For a simple interpretation of relative risk parameters one may also require data on the joint distribution of primary and confounding factors in each country or time period. Hence disease rate data need to be supplemented by dietary and risk factor survey data in order to avoid confounding bias. Measurement error in individual dietary assessment may, however, limit the ability to quantify the dependence of relative risk on dietary factors, unless the relative risk function is approximately linear in the dietary factors of interest. Most studies of migrant populations involve a comparison of migrant mortality rates with those of their countries of emigration and immigration, with little or no data collection on the dietary habits and risk factors of the migrants themselves. The potential of more comprehensive aggregate data and analytic migrant studies in the diet and disease area is briefly indicated. These issues and methods are illustrated using various types of data pertinent to the association between dietary fat and breast cancer.

Breast Neoplasms↗