SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Predictors”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

PubMed1998

Permanent visual loss and cerebrovascular accidents in giant cell arteritis: predictors and response to treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the features and therapeutic response of visual manifestations and cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in giant cell (temporal) arteritis (GCA) and to identify the predictors for permanent visual loss (VL) and CVA in GCA. METHODS: Two hundred thirty-nine patients with biopsy-proven GCA were included in a retrospective multicenter study. Data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory features were collected. The predictors were identified by a forward stepwise nonconditional logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Visual involvement was observed in 69 patients, and 34 had permanent VL. The diagnostic delay since the onset of visual symptoms was longer in the 11 patients with bilateral VL. The interval to involvement of the second eye was 5 days. The predictors of permanent VL were transient VL, jaw claudication, normal levels of liver enzymes, and absence of constitutional syndrome. Partial improvement of visual acuity was observed in 8 patients. After adjustment for the treatment regimen (intravenous pulse methylprednisolone versus oral prednisone), early treatment (within the first day of VL) was the only predictor of improvement. CVA, observed in 8 patients, involved the vertebral-basilar territory in 4. CVA was more frequent in patients with visual symptoms, appearing shortly after VL (median 7 days) and despite appropriate therapy. Predictors of CVA were permanent VL and jaw claudication. CONCLUSION: In GCA, the risk of permanent VL is increased in patients with transient VL and/or jaw claudication, and decreased in those with elevated liver enzyme levels and/or constitutional syndrome. Partial therapeutic success is more probable if treatment is started within the first day of VL. CVA is more likely in patients with permanent VL and/or jaw claudication, often developing despite appropriate corticosteroid therapy.

Administration, Oral↗

PubMed1993

A Canadian study of the total medical costs for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and the predictors of costs.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a cost identification analysis on 164 consecutive patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who entered the Montreal General Hospital Lupus Registry between January 1977 and January 1990, compared their costs to the population of Quebec, and determined the predictors of cost. METHODS: In January 1990 and 1991, participants completed questionnaires on health services utilization and on employment history over the preceding 6 months, as well as on functional, psychological, and social well-being. The societal burden of SLE was determined in terms of direct costs (all resources consumed in patient care) and indirect costs (wages lost due to lack of work force participation because of morbidity). RESULTS: The mean total annual cost for 1989, as assessed in January 1990 and expressed in 1990 Canadian dollars, was $13,094. Although only 44% of the patients were fully employed, indirect costs were responsible for 54% of this total ($7,071). Ambulatory costs, primarily diagnostic procedures, medications, and visits to health care professionals, comprised 55% of direct costs ($3,331). The results of the 1990 cost determination were similar. On average, hospitalizations among SLE patients were 4 times more frequent than among the general population of Quebec (matched for age and sex), and the number of ambulatory visits to physicians was double that for the average resident of Quebec. Higher 1989 values of creatinine and a poorer level of physical functioning were the best predictors of higher 1990 direct costs (R2 = 0.29). A poorer SLE well-being score, a combination of education and employment status, and a weaker level of social support were the best predictors of higher indirect costs (R2 = 0.29). CONCLUSION: The direct and indirect costs for patients with SLE are substantial, and their respective predictors are distinct. Direct costs arise from organic complications which induce functional disability. Predictors of indirect costs are potentially amenable to psychological or social interventions and may be more easily modified than the determinants of direct costs, thereby improving patient outcome while simultaneously reducing disease costs.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Evaluation of predictors of mortality in frontotemporal dementia-methodological aspects.

OBJECTIVES: To retrospectively evaluate pre-diagnostic clinical features (predictors) of mortality in frontotemporal dementia (FTD). The main aim was to investigate if there were indications against interpreting missing data as signs of absence. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 96 cases with FTD, here defined as Dementia in Pick's disease according to ICD-10. The predictors were behavioural/psychiatric features, language impairment and neurological deficits up to the date of diagnosis. Each predictor was rated as present (Yes), absent (No) or not recorded (Missing), and evaluated according to its distribution and mortality pattern: if a feature was not recorded because it was absent, the mortality of the Missing and the No-category should hypothetically be close. Statistical methods included Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Neurological deficits and language impairments were frequently recorded as present or absent, while non-recordings were more prevalent among the behavioural/psychiatric features. Some features were excluded as predictors because they showed too little variation. Analyses of the survival pattern indicated that in some features, the observations of the Missing-category could be interpreted as absence of the symptoms. In other features these observations had to be regarded as truly missing. CONCLUSIONS: In the retrospective evaluation of predictors of mortality a method for treating missing data was applied. The interpretation of non-recordings as signs of absence was supported by the analyses of the survival patterns in some of the studied features. However, the study underscores the importance of systematic estimations of pre-diagnostic clinical features in dementia.

Aged↗

PubMed1994

Baseline predictors of success when comparing two treatments.

Since few medications are equally effective in all patients, physicians can maximize the risk/benefit ratio of therapy for their patients by limiting exposure based on baseline predictors of success. Traditional procedures typically evaluate the response of patients receiving the same treatment regimen without evaluating a comparator. However, when treatments are compared, such as in clinical trials, traditional procedures of identifying predictors must be modified to analyze the treatment effect on the primary outcome variable. We focus on clinical and statistical considerations that arise when developing baseline predictors through models which consider treatment differences. To illustrate an application of this method, we used data from 1,026 patients completing at least 6 months of double-blind therapy in clinical trials comparing fluoxetine (N=522) with placebo (N=504) for weight loss. Stepwise regression procedures were used to identify baseline variables which were predictive of a beneficial fluoxetine treatment effect on last-visit-carried-forward (LVCF) weight change. In this example, age, smoking activity, and uric acid concentration were the best baseline predictors of long-term treatment effect relative to LVCF weight change. Patients were more likely to achieve long-term benefit with fluoxetine if they were older, and/or were nonsmokers, and/or had high concentrations of uric acid at baseline. These predictors, developed through models keying on treatment effect, can be used to identify patients who are more likely to accrue benefits with active therapy beyond those expected with placebo therapy, thus enriching the treatment population so that a higher proportion of treated patients are successful.

Anti-Obesity Agents↗

PubMed1997

Waist circumference as the best predictor of noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) compared to body mass index, waist/hip ratio and other anthropometric measurements in Mexican Americans--a 7-year prospective study.

Although a number of obesity-related variables are recognized risk factors for NIDDM, few studies have addressed which one is the best predictor. A cohort of 721 Mexican Americans aged 25-64 years who were free of NIDDM at baseline were followed for an average of 7.2 years; 105 new cases of NIDDM were diagnosed. Body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, waist/hip ratio (WHR), triceps and subscapular skinfolds were all positively predictive of NIDDM independent of age and sex. There were modest to strong correlations between these anthropometric variables, however, waist circumference was the strongest predictor of NIDDM. The predictive power of a single measurement of waist circumference was at least equal to that of WHR and BMI combined. The risk of NIDDM for those in the highest quartile of waist circumference was 11 times greater than for those in the lowest quartile (95% confidence interval: 4.2-28.8). The waist-NIDDM relation was stronger in subjects with BMI < or = 27 kg/m2 (OR: 6.0 for a 1 SD difference) than in subjects with BMI > 27 kg/m2 (OR: 1.7 for a 1 SD difference). In multivariate analysis, waist circumference was the only significant predictor of NIDDM in models that included other anthropometric variables either separately or simultaneously. WHR and BMI were independent predictors of NIDDM after adjustment for each other, however, their predictive abilities disappeared after adjustment for waist circumference. The data indicate that waist is the best obesity-related predictor of NIDDM. This finding suggests that the distribution of body fat, especially abdominal localization, is a more important determinant than the total amount of body fat of the development of NIDDM in Mexican Americans.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Prediction of ordinal outcomes when the association between predictors and outcome differs between outcome levels.

There are a number of regression models which are widely used to predict ordinal outcomes. The commonly used models assume that all predictor variables have a similar effect at all levels of the outcome variable. If this is not the case, for example if some variables predict susceptibility to a disease and others predict the severity of the disease, then a more complex model is required. One possibility is the multinomial logistic regression model, which assumes that the predictor variables have different effects at all levels of the outcome variable. An alternative is to use the stereotype family of regression models. A one-dimensional stereotype model makes the assumption that the effect of each predictor is the same at all outcome levels. However, it is possible to fit stereotype models with more than one dimension, up to a maximum of min(k-1, p) where k is the number of outcome categories and p is the number of predictor variables. A stereotype model of this maximum dimension is equivalent to a multinomial logistic regression model, in that it will produce the same predicted values and log-likelihood. If there are sufficient outcome levels and/or predictor variables, there may be a number of stereotype models of differing dimension. The method is illustrated with an example of prediction of damage to joints in rheumatoid arthritis.

Age of Onset↗

PubMed2002

Personality, peer relations, and self-confidence as predictors of happiness and loneliness.

This study is set out to examine to what extent peer relations, self-confidence, and school performance correlated with self-rated happiness (OHI) and loneliness (UCLA LS) in adolescents. Personality traits (EPQ), self-confidence (PEI), friendship and school grades were all significantly oppositely correlated with happiness and loneliness. Regressional analysis revealed that extraversion and neuroticism were direct predictors of happiness and self-confidence, while psychoticism and extraversion were direct predictors of loneliness. The effect of sex on happiness and loneliness was moderated by friendship and neuroticism, and by neuroticism and psychoticism, respectively. Extraversion was also a significant predictor of general confidence and social interactions which directly influenced loneliness whilst psychoticism was a direct predictor of loneliness. Self-rated school performance was the only direct predictor of happiness whereas general confidence and social interactions were related to adolescents' self-reported loneliness.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Gender differences in the longitudinal predictors of adolescent dating violence.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent dating violence is a public health problem. The public health approach to prevention is to identify predictors of problem behaviors and develop interventions to eliminate or reduce those predictors with the intention of altering the chain of causation. Longitudinal data are preferred for identifying predictors of behavior but all dating violence studies have used cross-sectional data. We use longitudinal data to examine predictors of adolescent dating violence from several domains guided by an ecological perspective. METHODS: Eighty percent (N = 1,965) of the 8th- and 9th-graders in one county completed baseline questionnaires in school and 90% (N = 1,759) of those adolescents completed questionnaires again 1&1/2 years later. Proportional odds models were used to identify cross-sectional correlates and longitudinal predictors of dating violence perpetration that occurred between baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: Most of the study variables were correlated with dating violence in cross-sectional analyses. Having friends who are victims of dating violence, using alcohol, and being of a race other than white predicted dating violence perpetration by females. Holding attitudes that are accepting of dating violence predicted dating violence perpetration by males. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that intervention strategies should vary for males and females and that when basing interventions on cross-sectional findings, scarce resources may be stretched to address persons who may not truly be at risk of beginning to perpetrate dating violence.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1996

Genotypes with the apolipoprotein epsilon4 allele are predictors of coronary heart disease mortality in a longitudinal study of elderly Finnish men.

Earlier we reported that allelic variation in the gene coding for apolipoprotein (apoE is a significant predictor of variation in the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) death in a longitudinal study of elderly Finnish men. Here we address the question: which of the apoE genotypes confers the risk information in these men, and whether such information persists after other CHD risk factors are considered? We followed two cohorts of elderly Finnish men aged 65 to 84 years, one in Eastern (n = 281) and the other in the Southwestern (n = 344) Finland for 5 years during which 26 (9.3%) of the men from the Eastern cohort and 40 (11.6%) of the men in the Southwestern cohort died from CHD. Baseline high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and (HDL cholesterol)2 in the Eastern cohort and age, and total and HDL cholesterol and smoking status in the Southwestern cohort were significant predictors of CHD death (P < 0.05). The apoE genotypes were significant predictors in the Southwestern cohort at P = 0.02 and in the Eastern cohort at P = 0.18. In multivariable models, information about apoE genotypes improved the prediction at P = 0.1O level of statistical significance in both cohorts. When genotypes were considered separately, the episilon2/4 combined with the epsilon4/4 in the Eastern cohort (odds ratio = 7.69, 95% CI = 1.67-35.52) and the epsilon 3/4 in the Southwestern cohort (odds ratio = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.165.10) had sigificantly greater odds of CHD death compared to the common F3/3 genotype. We conclude that apoE genotypes confer risk information about CHD death in two cohorts of elderly Finnish men in a longitudinal study, and this information persists after adjustment for other CHD risk factors. Because different genotypes were predictors in these two cohorts, we further conclude that the utility of a particular genotype as a predictor of CHD death in other populations may depend on the distribution of risk factor profiles at baseline, geographically defined environmental exposures, the CHD mortality history, and the evolutionary history of background genotypes in the population considered.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Static and dynamic patient characteristics as predictors of criminal recidivism: A prospective study in a Dutch forensic psychiatric sample.

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69-.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.

Crime↗

PubMed2005

The role of gender and other factors as predictors of not receiving reperfusion therapy and of outcome in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: The standard of care for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is prompt coronary reperfusion with thrombolysis or percutaneous coronary intervention. Women have higher mortality rates than men following STEMI and fewer women are considered eligible for reperfusion therapy. We analyzed the impact of gender, and other factors, on the outcome and treatment of STEMI in the TETAMI trial and registry. METHODS: This exploratory analysis included 2741 patients from Treatment with Enoxaparin and Tirofiban in Acute Myocardial Infarction (TETAMI) presenting with STEMI within 24 hours of symptom onset. The primary composite end point was the combined incidence of all-cause death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and recurrent angina, at 30 days. Three multivariate analyses were performed to determine predictors of not receiving reperfusion therapy, the composite end point, or death. RESULTS: The triple end point occurred in 17.8% of women versus 13.3% of men. Reperfusion therapy was utilized in 38.2% of women versus 47.3% in men. However, age > 75 years, delayed presentation, high systolic blood pressure (> 100) and region (South Africa), were significant, independent predictors of not receiving reperfusion therapy. Significant predictors of the triple end point included not receiving reperfusion therapy, age > 60 years, and higher Killip class. Predictors of death included age > 60 years, low systolic blood pressure, higher Killip class, high heart rate, delayed presentation, and region (South Africa and South America). CONCLUSION: Female gender was not an independent predictor of outcome or underutilization of reperfusion therapy. Factors more common in female STEMI patients (advanced age and delayed presentation) were associated with not receiving reperfusion therapy and adverse outcome. Increased awareness is needed to reduce delayed presentation after symptom onset, especially among women. Abbreviated abstract. In this analysis of 2741 ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients in the TETAMI trial and registry, a trend was observed for women being less likely to receive reperfusion therapy and more likely to have an adverse outcome than men. This was related to factors more common in female patients (advanced age and delayed presentation), and showed that an increased awareness is needed to reduce delayed presentation after symptom onset, especially among women.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2007

Predictors of mortality in elderly patients with acute renal failure in a developing country.

This prospective study was undertaken to systematically analyze the predictors of mortality in the elderly in a developing country. All elderly patients with ARF hospitalized at this tertiary care centre over 1 year were studied. Various predictors analyzed were hospital-acquired ARF, causative factors of ARF, preexisting hypertension and diabetes mellitus, severity of renal failure (initial and peak serum creatinine, need for dialysis), and complications of ARF: infection during the course of illness; serum albumin levels and critical illness defined as presence of two or more organ system failures excluding renal failure. Of 33,301 patients admitted, 4,255 (12.7%) were elderly. Of these 69 (1.6%) had ARF. On analysis of the whole group, both young and elderly, age >60 years had an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio 5.6, P = 0.001). Forty-two of the 69 (60.9%) elderly ARF patients died. The mortality was significantly increased in those elderly with hospital-acquired ARF (79.2%, P = 0.027), those with sepsis as a cause of ARF (71.2%, P = 0.004), those who required dialysis (72.5%, P = 0.022), those developing an infection during the course of ARF (87.9%, P = 0.000) and in those with a critical illness (90.0%, P = 0.00). On logistic regression analysis of those variables that were significant on univariate analysis, only critical illness (odds ratio 9.97) and infection during course (odds ratio 9.72) were the independent predictors of mortality. To conclude, ARF complicates only 1.6% of hospitalized elderly patients but is associated with a high mortality rate of 61%. Infection during the course of illness and critical illness were the independent predictors of mortality.

Acute Kidney Injury↗

PubMed1989

Cognitive bias and irrational belief as predictors of avoidance.

Cognitive bias, i.e. overestimates of subjective probability and cost of catastrophic events, and irrational belief were explored as predictors of avoidance. Three groups-anxiety disordered clients, a mixed group of clinic outpatients, and normals--were administered several self-report inventories. Multiple regression analyses were used to investigate a modified version of the Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire, the Belief Scale, and the Body Sensations Questionnaire as predictors of avoidance, as measured by the Mobility Inventory. It was hypothesized that frequency x probability x cost of catastrophic cognitions (and the occurrence of the events they represent) would be a better predictor of avoidance than frequency alone. It was also hypothesized that irrational thinking would be a significant predictor of avoidance. The results generally supported the hypotheses, with subjective probability emerging as a particularly potent predictor of avoidance. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed1989

Linear optimization of predictors for secondary structure. Application to transbilayer segments of membrane proteins.

Sliding-window averaging of amino acid properties is a standard method for predicting protein secondary structure. For example, transmembrane segments are predicted to occur near the peaks in a hydropathy plot of a membrane protein. Such a scheme (linear convolutional recognizer, LCR) assigns a number (weight) to each type of monomer, and then convolutes some window function with the sequence of weights. The window has commonly been rectangular, and the weights derived from singlet amino acid frequencies in proteins of known secondary structure or from physical properties of amino acids. The accuracy of the windows and weights have remained unknown. We use linear optimization theory to develop a general method for approximating the optimal window and weights for a LCR. The method assumes that one knows the sequences of one or more chains and the locations of their "features", regions having the secondary structure of interest. We present formulae for quantifying the accuracy of predictors. We show why the optimal LCR is more accurate than methods based on the differences between singlet monomer frequencies inside and outside features. The advantage of an optimal LCR is that its weights inherently include correlations between nearby monomer positions. The optimal predictor is not perfect though. We argue that its inaccuracy is an intrinsic limitation of linear predictors based on monomer weights. As a practical example, we study predictors for transbilayer segments of membrane proteins. We estimate the optimal weights and windows for the two bacterial photosynthetic reaction centers whose three-dimensional structures are known. The resultant LCR, which is more accurate than previous ones, is still inexact. We apply it to bacteriorhodopsin and halorhodopsin. Several non-linear generalizations are examined as possible improvements to the LCR method: non-linear combinations of linear predictors and windowed Fourier transforms of the weight sequences. The former do not significantly increase the accuracy, while the latter reveal a weak negative correlation between the segments and periodic variations of the weights.

Amino Acids↗

PubMed1995

Predictors of response to amine-specific antidepressants.

Discriminant function analysis of data from a double-blind comparative trial of lofepramine (a noradrenaline-specific reuptake inhibitor) and fluoxetine (a serotonin-specific reuptake inhibitor), involving 183 patients was used to identify predictors of response. Psychic anxiety significantly predicted a positive response to antidepressant medication, whereas psychomotor retardation, observed sadness, subjective lassitude and somatic complaints were significant predictors of nonresponse. Age, gender, endogenicity, duration of illness and number of previous episodes were not predictive of response. Significant differences were found between predictors of response to fluoxetine and lofepramine (P < 0.001 all groups). Predictors of response to lofepramine were similar to overall predictors, i.e., psychic anxiety predicted responders whilst observed sadness, psychomotor retardation, lassitude, inability to feel and somatic complaints predicted nonresponders. In contrast, baseline weight loss predicted response to fluoxetine, whereas anxiety, reduced insight and a tendency to blame others significantly predicted nonresponse. Such findings have practical implications for the management of depressive illness.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

Multivariate predictors of intravascular ultrasound end points after directional coronary atherectomy.

OBJECTIVES: This study attempted to identify the clinical, angiographic, procedural and intravascular ultrasound predictors of directional atherectomy results assessed by intravascular ultrasound. BACKGROUND: Several angiographic and intravascular ultrasound variables have been associated with the outcome of directional coronary atherectomy. No study has incorporated both modalities into a predictive model. METHODS: One hundred seventy patients were analyzed using preintervention and postintervention intravascular ultrasound and quantitative angiography. Clinical and procedural variables were collected by independent chart review. Quantitative and qualitative angiographic analysis was performed by a core laboratory in blinded manner. Intravascular ultrasound was performed using a transducer-tipped catheter, rotating within a stationary imaging sheath, and withdrawn automatically at 0.5 mm/s. Clinical, procedural, angiographic and ultrasound variables were tested in a multivariate linear regression model. Dependent ultrasound variables included postatherectomy lumen cross-sectional area and percent cross-sectional narrowing (plaque plus media/external elastic membrane cross-sectional area) and, in a subgroup of 47 patients studied using volumetric analysis, percent plaque volume removal. RESULTS: By multivariate stepwise linear regression analysis, predictors of residual lumen cross-sectional area (correcting for reference lumen area) included arc of calcium and preatherectomy plaque plus media cross-sectional area; predictors of residual cross-sectional narrowing were arc of calcium, preatherectomy plaque plus media cross-sectional area and lesion length; and predictors of percent plaque volume removal were arc of calcium and atherectomy device size. CONCLUSIONS: The preintervention lesion arc of calcium measured by intravascular ultrasound is the most consistent predictor of the effectiveness and results of directional coronary atherectomy.

Atherectomy, Coronary↗

PubMed1994

Predictors of nonfatal reinfarction in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Results of the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-2) Data Base.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to reassess the prediction of recurrent nonfatal myocardial infarction in patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. BACKGROUND: Recurrent nonfatal myocardial infarction is a strong and independent predictor of subsequent mortality. Current knowledge of risk factors for nonfatal reinfarction is still largely based on data gathered before the advent of thrombolysis. Thus, this prospective study was planned to identify harbinger of nonfatal reinfarction in the postinfarction patients of the multicenter Grouppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-2) trial. METHODS: Predictors of nonfatal reinfarction at 6 months were analyzed by multivariate technique (Cox model) in 8,907 GISSI-2 survivors of myocardial infarction with clinical follow-up, relying on a set of prespecified variables reflecting residual ischemia, left ventricular failure or dysfunction, complex ventricular arrhythmias, comorbidity as well as demographic and historical factors. RESULTS: The postdischarge to 6-month incidence rate of nonfatal reinfarction was 2.5%. Independent predictors of nonfatal reinfarction were cardiac ineligibility for exercise test (relative risk 2.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.98 to 4.45), previous myocardial infarction (relative risk 1.70, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.36) and angina at follow-up (relative risk 1.50, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.04). On further multivariate analysis, performed in 6,580 patients with both echocardiographic and electrocardiographic monitoring data available, a history of angina emerged as an additional risk predictor (relative risk 1.58, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.25). CONCLUSIONS: The 6-month incidence of nonfatal reinfarction is rather low in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Cardiac ineligibility for exercise testing and a history of coronary artery disease are risk predictors. Recurrent nonfatal infarction is not predictable by qualitative variables reflecting residual ischemia, except by postdischarge angina. Prediction of nonfatal reinfarction appears less accurate than prediction of mortality, as almost 50% of reinfarctions occur in patients without any of the identified risk factors.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed1995

Recurrence of angina after coronary artery bypass surgery: predictors and prognosis (CASS Registry). Coronary Artery Surgery Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to define the predictors and prognosis of postoperative angina in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. BACKGROUND: Angina recurs in the first postoperative year in 20% to 30% of patients after coronary artery bypass surgery. The Coronary Artery Surgery Study Registry provides an opportunity to study the predictors and prognosis of postoperative angina in a large sample. METHODS: All patients with isolated coronary artery bypass surgery in the registry were identified, and anginal status was determined on a yearly basis. The influence of angina on mortality, recurrent myocardial infarction and need for reoperation was determined. RESULTS: Angina recurred in the first year in 24% of patients and by the sixth year in 40%. The significant predictors in a multivariate analysis were minimal coronary artery disease, preoperative angina, use of vein grafts only, previous myocardial infarction, incomplete revascularization, female gender, smoking and younger age. In subsequent years important predictors were angina in the first postoperative year, female gender, younger age and incomplete revascularization. The presence of angina in the first postoperative year was associated with more frequent myocardial infarction (p = 0.04) and greater need for reoperation (p = 0.003) but did not affect survival during the 6-year follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that the predictors of postoperative angina are features that are or could be predicted before bypass surgery. Thus, patients with these features before bypass surgery could be advised that they would be more likely to experience postoperative angina than those without these features. Postoperative angina is associated with an increased risk of late myocardial infarction and reoperation.

Angina Pectoris↗