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Cancers detected and induced in mammographic screening: new screening schedules and younger women with family history.

The numbers of cancers detected and induced in breast screening programmes are examined for two-view screening, and for a 2 year screening interval, in contrast to the single view screening at a 3 year interval of the UK Breast Screening Programme up until early 1995. Two-view screening is also considered for the 1 year interval and age range of the current UK age trial (40-47 years). The corresponding figures for screening of groups having a family history of breast cancer are calculated and discussed. Breast cancer induction data are taken from National Radiological Protection Board publications. Cancer detection rates are based on observed rates where available, and calculated rates otherwise. The results of calculations indicate cause for concern if screening is to be extended below the age of 30 years (or below 35 years in certain categories), or below 40 years of age if family history groups are shown in the future to have a generally increased susceptibility to ionizing radiation. The importance of restricting dose to 2 mGy per film (mean glandular dose for a standard breast thickness of 4.5 cm) is stressed, together with the need ot maintain maximum image quality. This is especially true for the family history groups, who should only be screened in centres within established screening programmes, or in centres with equally strict quality control procedures.

Adult↗

Women's opinions about attending for breast cancer screening: stability of cognitive determinants during three rounds of screening.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the stability of beliefs and intentions towards repeat attendance at breast cancer screening, using the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The aims of the study were to examine whether and how cognitions changed in the course of the programme, and whether intentions that were assessed proximally were better predictors of behaviour than those assessed distally. DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 2,657 women filled out a baseline questionnaire (T(1)), 2 months after being invited for an initial mammogram in the Dutch Breast Cancer Screening Programme. Actual attendance data in the second and third screening rounds were subsequently collected and follow-up questionnaires were sent to parts of the sample at four points in time: shortly before (T(2)) and after (T(3)) the second screening round, and shortly before (T(4)) and after (T(5)) the third screening round. RESULTS: Only minor changes in beliefs and intentions were found. In the assessments shortly before screening, women were somewhat less positive about attending than in the assessments shortly after screening. Throughout the course of the programme, women's opinions about attending remained positive. In fact, women became somewhat more convinced that they were vulnerable to getting breast cancer, and that participating in screening was beneficial to them. Actual attendance in subsequent rounds of screening was higher than expected. Proximal beliefs and intentions were only slightly more predictive of actual behaviour than distal beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: In organized breast cancer screening, beliefs and intentions remain positive and rather stable. Although our results should be interpreted with caution, due to little variation in behaviour, they suggest that the gap between intentions and behaviour could not be substantially reduced by proximal assessment of determinants.

Adult↗

Early diagnosis of cystic fibrosis through neonatal screening prevents severe malnutrition and improves long-term growth. Wisconsin Cystic Fibrosis Neonatal Screening Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: Despite its relative frequency among autosomal recessive diseases and the availability of the sweat test, cystic fibrosis (CF) has been difficult to diagnose in early childhood, and delays can lead to severe malnutrition, lung disease, or even death. The Wisconsin CF Neonatal Screening Project was designed as a randomized clinical trial to assess the benefits and risks of early diagnosis through screening. In addition, the incidence of CF was determined, and the validity of our randomization method assessed by comparing 16 demographic variables. METHODOLOGY: Immunoreactive trypsinogen analysis was applied to dried newborn blood specimens for recognition of CF risk from 1985 to 1991 and was coupled to DNA-based detection of the DeltaF508 mutation from 1991 to 1994. Randomization of 650 341 newborns occurred when their blood specimens reached the Wisconsin screening laboratory. This created 2 groups-an early diagnosis, screened cohort and a standard diagnosis or control group. To avoid selection bias, we devised a unique unblinding method with a surveillance program to completely identify the control subjects. Because sequential analysis of nutritional outcome measures revealed significantly better growth in screened patients during 1996, we accelerated the unblinding and completely identified the control group by April 1998. Having each member of this cohort enrolled and evaluated for at least 1 year and having completed a comprehensive surveillance program, we performed another statistical analysis of anthropometric evaluated indices that includes all CF patients without meconium ileus. RESULTS: The incidence of classical CF, ie, patients diagnosed in this trial with a sweat chloride of 60 mEq/L greater, was 1:4189. By incorporating other CF patients born during the randomization period, including 2 autopsy diagnosed patients and 8 probable patients, we calculate a maximum incidence of 1:3938 (95% confidence interval: 3402-4611). Although there were group differences in the proportion of patients with DeltaF508 genotypes and with pancreatic insufficiency, validity of the randomization plan was demonstrated by analyzing 16 demographic variables and finding no significant difference after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Focusing on patients without meconium ileus, we found a marked difference in the mean +/- standard deviation age of diagnosis for screened patients (13 +/- 37 weeks), compared with the standard diagnosis group (100 +/- 117). Anthropometric indices of nutritional status were significantly higher at diagnosis in the screened group, including length/height, weight, and head circumference. During 13 years of study, despite similar nutritional therapy and the inherently better pancreatic status of the control group, analysis of nutritional outcomes revealed significantly greater growth associated with early diagnosis. Most impressively, the screened group had a much lower proportion of patients with weight and height data below the 10th percentile throughout childhood. CONCLUSIONS: Although the screened group had a higher proportion of patients with pancreatic insufficiency, their growth indices were significantly better than those of the control group during the 13-year follow-up evaluation and, therefore, this randomized clinical trial of early CF diagnosis must be interpreted as unequivocally positive. Our conclusions did not change when the height and weight data before 4 years of age for the controls detected by unblinding were included in the analysis. Also, comparison of growth outcomes after 4 years of age in all subjects showed persistence of the significant differences. Therefore, selection bias has been eliminated as a potential explanation. In addition, the results show that severe malnutrition persists after delayed diagnosis of CF and that catch-up may not be possible. We conclude that early diagnosis of CF through neonatal screening combined with aggressive nutritional therapy can result

Cystic Fibrosis↗

Microvascular complications at time of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes are similar among diabetic patients detected by targeted screening and patients newly diagnosed in general practice: the hoorn screening study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether screening-detected diabetic patients differ from diabetic patients newly diagnosed in general practice with regard to the presence of microvascular complications. RESEARCH AND DESIGN METHODS: Diabetic patients, identified by a population-based targeted screening procedure consisting of a screening questionnaire and a fasting capillary whole-blood glucose measurement followed by diagnostic testing, were compared with patients newly diagnosed with diabetes in general practice. Retinopathy was assessed with fundus photography, impaired foot sensitivity was assessed with Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments, and the presence of microalbuminuria was measured by means of the albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). RESULTS: A total of 195 screening-detected type 2 diabetic patients and 60 patients newly diagnosed in general practice participated in the medical examination. The prevalence of retinopathy was higher in screening-detected type 2 diabetic patients than in patients newly diagnosed in general practice, but not significantly higher. The prevalence of retinopathy was 7.6% (95% CI 4.6-12.4) in screening-detected type 2 diabetic patients and 1.9% (0.3-9.8) in patients newly diagnosed in general practice. The prevalence of impaired foot sensitivity was similar in both groups, 48.1% (40.9-55.3) and 48.3% (36.2-60.7), respectively. The ACR was 0.61 (interquartile range 0.41-1.50) in screening-detected type 2 diabetic patients and 0.99 (0.53-2.49) in patients newly diagnosed in general practice. The difference in prevalence of microalbuminuria was not statistically significant. The prevalence of microalbuminuria was 17.2% (95% CI 12.5-23.2) and 26.7% (17.1-39.0) in screening-detected type 2 diabetic patients and patients newly diagnosed in general practice, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted screening for type 2 diabetes (with a screening questionnaire as a first step) resulted in the identification of previously undiagnosed diabetic patients with a considerable prevalence of microvascular complications.

Aged↗

Screening rates and characteristics of health plan members who respond to screening reminders.

INTRODUCTION: Preventive screening is widely recognized as a key component of cost-effective, high-quality health care. Even so, national screening for cancer, diabetes, and cholesterol falls far short of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations. Although evidence has shown that reminder programs improve preventive screening rates, this study is one of the first to examine the characteristics of health plan members who respond to screening reminders. METHODS: The study sample included active members of a large health plan in Hawaii who were identified by an algorithm as not having received one or more recommended screenings based on age and sex criteria (2000-2003) for breast cancer (n = 44,331), cervical cancer (n = 73,875), colon cancer (n = 131,860), diabetes (n = 86,216), and cholesterol (n = 54,843). Statistical analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression models. In the proportional hazard models, reminder letters were treated as time-varying exposures. Hazard ratios, or rate ratios, were used to examine the relationship between health plan member and physician characteristics and the likelihood of responding to the reminders. The effects of additional or multiple reminders among health plan members receiving more than one reminder were examined in multivariable regression models. RESULTS: The impact of health plan member characteristics and number of office visits on the response to reminders varied among the five health-screening types. Health plan members responded better to reminders for diabetes screening than for colon cancer screening. Members sent their second annual reminders were less likely to obtain screening than members sent their first reminder. Members receiving their third (or more) annual reminder were especially recalcitrant. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the response to reminders differs according to patient characteristics. In particular, targeted interventions may be needed to encourage screening for younger and healthier members whose response rate to reminders was low. Further research is needed to determine how health plans can best reach members who do not respond to patient reminders.

Aged↗

[Number needed to be screened in a study: a novel measure for disease screening effect].

OBJECTIVE: To introduce the concept, methods for calculation and application of "number needed to be screened" (NNBS) in epidemiologic studies. METHODS: The concept of "number needed to treat" (NNT) was extended for disease screening strategies. For the purpose of illustration, the values of number needed to invite for screening (NNI) and number needed to be screened (NNBS) were calculated on the basis of the results from two randomized controlled screening trials--Nottingham randomized controlled trial of faecal-occult-blood screening for colorectal cancer and Swedish mammographic screening trial for breast cancer in two counties. RESULTS: In order to prevent one death from the colorectal cancer among local people aged from 45 to 74 during the 14 years of follow-up, the NNI and NNBS for faecal-occult-blood screening program were 1220 and 665, respectively. In addition, in order to prevent one death from breast cancer among local women aged 40-74 during 8 years of follow-up, the NNI and NNBS for mammographic screening program were 1961 and 1494, respectively. CONCLUSION: Compared with the traditional indices, NNBS can evaluate the overall effectiveness of a screening program in an intuitively understandable manner so as to facilitate the communication among medical researchers, health workers, health policy makers and the public.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Screening for neuroblastoma at 3 weeks of age: methods and preliminary results from the Quebec Neuroblastoma Screening Project.

A large neuroblastoma screening study was recently started in the province of Quebec, Canada. This project, a collaboration between the Quebec Network for Genetic Medicine and the University of Minnesota, is studying the impact of screening infants for the preclinical detection of neuroblastoma on the population-based mortality caused by this tumor. All infants born in Quebec during a 5-year period will be screened twice, at 3 weeks and at 6 months. Urinary homovanillic acid and vanillylmandelic acid determination from dried filter paper samples is used for screening. Initial qualitative screening is done by means of thin-layer chromatography with confirmatory quantitative screening by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). During the initial 6 months of 3-week screening, 41,673 neonates (92% compliance rate) were screened and 10.6% of them were tested also by GC-MS. Nine of these neonates had positive results on two GC-MS tests and were referred for evaluation to rule out the presence of neuroblastoma. Four had the tumor, 1 had a calcified adrenal gland, and 4 had no tumor detected. Three additional neonates had clinical diagnosis of neuroblastoma before they reached the screening age of 3 weeks. A neuroblastoma that did not secrete homovanillic acid or vanillylmandelic acid was diagnosed clinically in 1 additional patient who tested negative by screening.

Chromatography, Gas↗

Screening for congenital hypothyroidism with specimen collection at two time periods: results of the Northwest Regional Screening Program.

To determine the benefit of collecting two routine specimens to test for congenital hypothyroidism, we examined the results of our newborn screening program during the last 9.5 years. The Northwest Regional Screening Program (NWRSP) performs a primary thyroxine test with thyroid-stimulating hormone determinations on the lowest 10% of dried blood filter paper specimens. An initial specimen is obtained in the newborn period, and a routine second specimen is collected at approximately 4 to 6 weeks of age in all infants born in Oregon and 25% of infants born in Idaho, Montana, Alaska, and Nevada. Between May 1975 and October 1984, 182 infants with primary hypothyroidism were detected from 811,917 infants screened, a prevalence rate of 1:4,461. The routine second specimen led to the diagnosis of 19 infants of 484,604 infants screened, a detection rate of 1:25,505. When infants detected by the second screen were compared with those detected by the first screen, they had higher thyroxine and lower thyroid-stimulating hormone concentrations on filter paper and serum specimens. When thyroid scanning was used, all but one infant detected by the second screen had some residual thyroid tissue, whereas 35% of infants detected by the first screen had thyroid aplasia. Skeletal maturation was more likely to be normal in infants detected by the second screen. These infants appear to have milder hypothyroidism due to a later age of onset or slower evolution of thyroid failure. At a cost of $31,881 per infant detected by the second screen, the NWRSP found it cost-effective to obtain a routine second specimen.

Congenital Hypothyroidism↗

Screening flexible sigmoidoscopy in a low-risk, highly screened population.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of screening flexible sigmoidoscopy in patients with a prior history of a negative screening sigmoidoscopy has not been previously studied. METHODS: Charts from 866 consecutive asymptomatic patients undergoing baseline or rescreening flexible sigmoidoscopy were reviewed. Any previously screened patient with a history of polyps was excluded from the study. Findings on sigmoidoscopy, including size, location, and histopathology of lesions and number of prior examinations, if any, were recorded. RESULTS: Polyps were found in only 12 of 866 patients (1.4%). The effect of prior screening was significant. Ten of 414 (2.4%) patients who had not undergone prior screening sigmoidoscopy were found to have polyps. In contrast, only two of 452 (0.4%) patients who had undergone prior screening were found to have polyps. CONCLUSIONS: Screening flexible sigmoidoscopic examinations provided a low positivity yield in this study, a finding that is likely explained by the exclusion of previously screened patients with a history of polyps and by the significant number of previously screened patients. The relation between the prevalence of lesions and the patients' previous examination statuses suggests that multiple screenings for asymptomatic, low-risk patients at 3- to 5-year intervals as recommended by the American Cancer Society may be unnecessary.

Aged↗

The field testing of Denver Developmental Screening Test Singapore: a Singapore version of Denver II Developmental Screening Test.

The Denver Developmental Screening Test, Singapore (DDST, Singapore), a Singapore version of the Denver II Developmental Screening Test, was field-tested, using trained staff nurses as testers, on 2459 children (known cases excluded), in 5 key ages of 3 months, 9 months, 17 months, 37 months and 60 months. Only 2.6% (65) of the parents suspected developmental problems in their children before screening. Taking children with "questionable" (7.2%), "abnormal" (3.7%) and "untestable" (1.7%) scores as the screened-out cases, the DDST, Singapore had a screened-out rate of 12.6%. A total of 171 screened-out cases and 168 "normal" children were also evaluated by the Development Assessment Clinic (DAC) of the Singapore General Hospital and the results were compared in these 2 groups of children. Among the screened-out cases, 16.6% were confirmed or suspected to have neuro-developmental disorders (NDDs) by the DAC. The computed NDD rate in the study sample was 5.3%. Based on a single DDST, Singapore test result, there was a high false positive rate of 83.5% and lower false negative rate of 3.7% compared to the DAC assessment. However, the high false positive rate would be significantly reduced by doing a repeat screening test on the "questionable" cases and having the screened-out cases assessed by trained primary health care doctors. In conclusion, no major revision is needed in the scoring criteria suggested in the current version of DDST, Singapore. It is a useful tool in identifying children who will otherwise be missed without formal screening.

Child, Preschool↗

Controlled trial of universal neonatal screening for early identification of permanent childhood hearing impairment. Wessex Universal Neonatal Hearing Screening Trial Group.

BACKGROUND: Congenital permanent childhood hearing impairment (PCHI) impairs communication skills and, possibly, mental health and employment prospects. Management within 1 year of birth can alleviate most of its adverse effects. Neonatal screening for this disorder is feasible but its benefit for all babies is disputed. We investigated whether neonatal screening of all babies born in hospital, in addition to the standard health visitor distraction test, would increase the rates of early referral, confirmation, and management. METHODS: Between 1993 and 1996, two teams of four part-time testers and equipment moved between two pairs of hospitals to achieve four periods with neonatal screening and four without neonatal screening, each of 4-6 months' duration. Babies did or did not undergo neonatal screening dependent on during which periods they were born. We used a transient evoked otoacoustic emissions test and, in babies who failed this test, an automated auditory brainstem response test on the same day. We referred babies with positive results for audiological assessment. FINDINGS: 53,781 babies were included in the trial, and 25,609 were born during periods with neonatal screening. Neonatal screening achieved 87% coverage of births, with a false-alarm rate of 1.5%, and an overall yield of 90 cases of bilateral PCHI of 40 dB or more relative to hearing threshold level per 100,000 target population, equivalent to 80% of the expected prevalence of the disorder in the population. 71 more babies with moderate or severe PCHI per 100,000 target population were referred before age 6 months during periods with neonatal screening than during periods without. Early confirmation and management of PCHI were significantly increased. The rate of false-negative results from neonatal screening was significantly lower than that for the distraction test (4 vs 27% p=0.041). INTERPRETATION: Neonatal screening is effective in identification of congenital PCHI early and may be particularly useful for babies with moderate and severe PCHI for whom early management may have the most benefit.

England↗

A survey of skin cancer screening in the primary care setting: a comparison with other cancer screenings.

OBJECTIVE: To determine primary care physicians' perceived importance and frequency of performance of skin cancer screening in comparison with other cancer screening examinations. DESIGN: Descriptive survey study. PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand US family physicians and internal medicine specialists randomly selected from the Official American Board of Medical Specialists Directory of Board-Certified Medical Specialists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported importance and performance of cancer screening examinations. RESULTS: Eligible physicians (1363 total: 814 family physicians and 549 internists) completed the survey with a response rate of 30%. Overall, 52% of respondents rated skin cancer screening as "extremely" important, compared with 79% for digital rectal examination, 88% for clinical breast examination, and 87% for Papanicolaou testing. Thirty-seven percent of physicians reported performing complete body skin examinations on 81% to 100% of patients, compared with digital rectal examination, for which 78% of physicians reported performing the examination on 81% to 100% of patients, or the clinical breast examination, for which 82% of physicians reported performing the examination on 81% to 100% of patients. A higher percentage of physicians in practice for more than 30 years ranked skin cancer screening as extremely important and reported a higher frequency of screening examinations. Physicians in a suburban practice setting reported performing skin examinations more often than those in urban or rural settings. Overall, the self-reported frequency of skin examination was strongly correlated with the physician's importance rating of skin cancer screening. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of primary care physicians rate skin cancer screening as extremely important. The reported importance of skin cancer screening and frequency of skin cancer examination among primary care physicians is significantly less than for other cancer examinations. This likely represents a multitude of factors, including logistic constraints and lack of consensus on the efficacy of skin cancer screening. Arch Fam Med. 2000;9:1022-1027

Breast Neoplasms↗

Multicenter study of first-trimester screening for trisomy 21 in 75 821 pregnancies: results and estimation of the potential impact of individual risk-orientated two-stage first-trimester screening.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of first-trimester screening for trisomy 21 by a combination of maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency (NT) and maternal serum free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (beta-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A). In addition, the potential impact of a new individual risk-orientated two-stage approach to first-trimester screening was examined. METHODS: First-trimester combined screening for trisomy 21 was carried out in 75 821 singleton pregnancies with live fetuses at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 gestational weeks. The detection and false-positive rates for different risk cut-offs were calculated. To examine the potential impact of an individual risk-orientated two-stage approach to first-trimester screening it was assumed that, after first-trimester combined screening, chorionic villus sampling (CVS) would be performed in all patients with a risk estimate of 1 in 100 or more and in none of those with a risk estimate of less than 1 in 1000. Those in the intermediate-risk category, with a risk estimate of between 1 in 101 and 1 in 1000, would have further assessment of risk by first-trimester ultrasound examination to determine presence/absence of the nasal bone, presence/absence of tricuspid regurgitation or normal/abnormal Doppler velocity waveform in the ductus venosus, and CVS would be performed if their adjusted risk became 1 in 100 or more. RESULTS: Fetal NT and maternal serum free beta-hCG and PAPP-A were successfully measured in all cases. The median maternal age was 31 (range, 13-49) years, the median gestation at screening was 12 (range, 11 + 0 to 13 + 6) weeks and the median fetal crown-rump length was 62 (range, 45-84) mm. Chromosomal abnormalities were identified in 544 pregnancies, including 325 cases of trisomy 21. The estimated risk for trisomy 21 was 1 in 300 or greater in 5.2% of normal pregnancies, in 92.6% of those with trisomy 21, in 88.5% of those with trisomy 18 or 13 and in 85.6% of those with other chromosomal defects. The detection rates for trisomy 21 were about 75% and 80% for respective false-positive rates of 1% and 2%. In the proposed individual risk-orientated two-stage screening for a risk cut-off of 1 in 100 the total false-positive rate would vary with the method used for the second stage of screening from 2.1% for absence of the nasal bone to 2.7% for increased impedance in the ductus venosus and 2.7% for tricuspid regurgitation and the respective detection rates would be 92.0%, 94.2% and 91.7%. CONCLUSIONS: First-trimester combined screening for trisomy 21 is associated with a detection rate of about 90% for a false-positive rate of 5%. Individual risk-orientated two-stage screening for trisomy 21 can potentially identify, in the first trimester of pregnancy, more than 90% of affected fetuses for a false-positive rate of 2-3%.

Adolescent↗

Current Status of Screening for Breast Cancer and Tasks for Introduction of Mammographic Screening in Japan.

In the United States and Europe the high mortality of breast cancer has been significantly reduced by mammographic screening of women aged over 50 years, theeffectiveness of which has been documented in many reports. In contrast, the effectiveness of such screening in women aged from 40 to 49 remains controversial.In Japan, breast cancer screening has consisted of physical examination alone, with inspection and palpation. Thus, more than half of the patients with breast cancer detected by this screening system are already aware of their lumps, the detection rate has been a little less than 0.1%, and the proportion of early-stage disease among breast cancers is only about 50%. It is difficult to detect breast cancer consisting of non-palpable tumors by physical examination, and the lowsensitivity of this screening method has been pointed out. In Japan, there is no difference in overall survival between cases detected by screening and those detected in outpatient clinics. The results of the mammographic screening trial performed in Miyagi and Tokushima, which were promising in terms of proportions of early-stage cancer and no nodal involvement, strongly suggest its usefulness in Japan as well as in other countries. However, long-term results are not yet available. It is advocated that screening for breast cancer should be performed by means of mammography to improve the screening sensitivity, and increase the proportion of early-stage breast cancers. Mammo-graphic screening, either mammography and physical examination separately or simultanously in combination, has been effective for women aged over 50 years in Japan. However, with regard to those aged under 49 years, further studies are needed.

Journal Article↗

Examining the effects of false positive lung cancer screening results on subsequent lung cancer screening adherence.

OBJECTIVE: The study goal was to examine the effects of an initial false positive chest X-ray screening result on subsequent lung cancer screening adherence. METHODS: Adherence rates among 4705 individuals in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial at the Henry Ford Health System site with an abnormal/suspicious chest X-ray screening result in the first study year that was subsequently determined to be noncancerous (false positive result, n = 1137 exams) were compared with adherence rates among individuals with an initial negative chest X-ray screening result (n = 3568 exams). RESULTS: Univariate results showed a >50% increase in subsequent nonadherence among individuals with false positive screening results compared with those with negative screening results (17.2% versus 10.3% nonadherence rate, respectively; P < 0.001). Multivariable results showed that statistically significant predictors of nonadherence were false positive cases with current smoking status (P < 0.001) and false positive cases with past smoking status (P < 0.001). Additional predictors of subsequent nonadherence were being African-American (P < 0.01), being female (P < 0.001), and having a high school education or less (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that the impact of previous screening results, smoking status, race, gender, and education on subsequent screening adherence needs to be weighed carefully, particularly for smokers, an at-risk group, when conducting lung cancer screening intervention studies and perhaps should be considered in clinical practice as well.

False Positive Reactions↗

Multicentre aneurysm screening study (MASS): cost effectiveness analysis of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms based on four year results from randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of ultrasound screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms. DESIGN: Primary analysis: four year cost effectiveness analysis based directly on results from a randomised controlled trial in which patients were individually allocated to invitation to ultrasound screening (intervention) or to a control group not offered screening. Secondary analysis: projection of the data, based on conservative assumptions, to indicate likely cost effectiveness at 10 years. SETTING: Four centres in the United Kingdom. Screening delivered in primary care settings with follow up and surgery offered in the main hospitals Participants: Population based sample of 67 800 men aged 65-74 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from and costs (screening, follow up, elective and emergency surgery) related to abdominal aortic aneurysm; cost per life year gained. RESULTS: Over four years there were 47 fewer deaths related to abdominal aortic aneurysms in the screening group than in the control group, but the additional costs incurred were pound 2.2m. After adjustment for censoring and discounted at 6% the mean additional cost of the screening programme was pound 63.39 ($97.77, euro;100.48) (95% confidence interval pound 53.31 to pound 73.48) per patient. The hazard ratio for abdominal aortic aneurysm was 0.58 (0.42 to 0.78). Over four years the mean incremental cost effectiveness ratio for screening was pound 28 400 ( pound 15 000 to pound 146 000) per life year gained, equivalent to about pound 36 000 per quality adjusted life year. After 10 years this figure is estimated to fall to around pound 8000 per life year gained. CONCLUSIONS: Even at four years the cost effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms is at the margin of acceptability according to current NHS thresholds. Over a longer period the cost effectiveness will improve substantially, the predicted ratio at 10 years falling to around a quarter of the four year figure.

Aged↗

Efficacy of breast-cancer screening for female relatives of breast-cancer-index cases: Taiwan multicentre cancer screening (TAMCAS).

Although the efficacy of mass screening for breast cancer has been established in Western countries, this strategy may be too costly for other countries with low incidence rates of breast cancer. We propose an alternative approach to screen female relatives of breast-cancer-index cases from hospitals, as part of the Taiwan multicentre cancer screening (TAMCAS) project. In order to assess the efficacy of this programme, and to estimate how often this high-risk group should be screened, we firstly elucidated the disease natural history from the pre-clinical screen-detectable phase (PCDP) by estimating the relevant parameters based on Markov chain models. We further predicted the proportion of interval cancers, advanced breast tumours and deaths from breast cancers by different screening frequencies. Results showed that the estimate of mean sojourn time (MST) for this high-risk group (1.9 years; 95% CI.1.18-4.86) is shorter than that for females from the general population. Analysis of a surrogate endpoint based on regional lymph-node spread and tumour size shows that annual screening for this high-risk group is likely to confer a significant 33% reduction in breast-cancer mortality compared with a non-significant 25 and 20% reduction for 2 yearly and 3-yearly screening regimes respectively. The above results suggest that a 1-year interval might be appropriate for this high-risk group. A simple cost-effectiveness analysis indicates a cost per year of life saved for mass screening ($72,480) 15 times that for the high-risk group ($4,851 ).

Breast Neoplasms↗

Changing role of 3 screening modalities in the European randomized study of screening for prostate cancer (Rotterdam).

A randomized screening trial was started in Europe to show the effect of early detection and treatment of prostate cancer on mortality (European Study on Screening of Prostate Cancer). In one centre (Rotterdam), the screening protocol initially consisted of 3 screening tests for all men: prostate-specific antigen (PSA), digital rectal examination (DRE) and transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS). A PSA value of >/=4 ng/ml and/or an abnormality on DRE and/or TRUS were taken to indicate that biopsy was required. In this study, we examined the possibilities for a more efficient screening protocol. A logistic-regression model was used to predict the number of cancers for PSA < 4 ng/ml if all men were biopsied (predictive index, PI). Effects of a change in PSA cut-off on the screening results were explored. Weights were applied to procedures and cancers to explore the possibility of expressing differences between protocols in one overall figure. Biopsies in men with PSA < 1 ng/ml and a positive DRE or TRUS were very inefficient. Applying DRE and TRUS only in the PSA ranges 1.5 to 3.9 and 2 to 3.9 ng/ml to determine whether a biopsy was required would result in a decrease of 29 to 36% in biopsies and a decrease of 5 to 8% in cancers. However, the results of DRE and TRUS could not be duplicated entirely. A protocol with only PSA >/= 3 ng/ml as a direct biopsy indicator resulted in a decrease of detected cancers by 7.6% and of biopsies by 12%, also a much simpler screening procedure. Use of the PI would give more efficient protocols, but this should be viewed as a preliminary finding, with the disadvantage of necessitating many additional screening visits. Since the results of DRE and TRUS could not be duplicated, a change in protocol towards PSA >/= 3 ng/ml appears acceptable. If this proves effective, a final judgement about the optimal combination of screening tests may be made. Int. J. Cancer (Pred. Oncol.) 84:437-441, 1999.

Biopsy↗