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Is nonmetropolitan America being repopulated? The evidence from Pennsylvania's minor civil divisions.

We analyze population change and net migration, by age and sex, from 1940 to 1970, for 1,834 Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania Minor Civil Divisions (MCD's) classified by residence, population potential, socioeconomic status, and distance from metropolitan centers. Our analysis indicates, as expected, reconcentration of residents from both urban and remoter nonmetropolitan localities into exurban peripheries 25 to 35 miles for metropolitan centers. Since 1960, however, a "turnaround" appears in many truly rural tracts, which have been experiencing an influx or retention of persons 35 years of age and older. Statistical explanations are strongest for males in poor, isolated places, weakest for more accessible, socioeconomically advanced places and their female inhabitants. Throughout the study period and area, nonurban MCD's register more positively than the rural.

Adolescent↗

Recent nonmetropolitan population change in fifty-year perspective.

Post-1970 nonmetropolitan population shifts are examined by dividing nonmetropolitan counties into ten cohorts based on the duration and direction of consistent population change since 1920. Analysis indicates that the post-1970 gains reported by Beale are pervasive in nonmetropolitan America, occurring even in a majority of the counties that lost population consistently from 1920 to 1970. Growth was greatest in countries adjacent to metropolitan areas but was more than urban spillover effect. In a clear break with traditional patterns, net inmigration contributed significantly to overall population gain and was particularly strong among countries without an urban center. The rate of natural increase continued to slow in the post-1970 period, with natural decrease becoming common among countries with protracted histories of population decline.

Humans↗

Population movement and city-suburb redistribution: an analytic framework.

This paper introduces an analytic framework that can be used to assess the relationships between individual movement differentials and place characteristics, on the one hand, and aggregate mobility levels and city-suburb population change (in size or composition), on the other. Application of this framework using census data for individual metropolitan areas allows the analyst to decompose population changes due to net migration into contributing mobility streams and their component rates which are subject to unique community and individual influences. The paper provides both theoretical and empirical rationale for the framework, illustrates its use with 1970 census data, and discusses its implications for empirical research on city-suburb population redistribution.

Humans↗

[Disappearance of ALS from Guam: implications for exogenous causes].

The author reports the disappearance of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) from Guam over past 30 years, which coincided with rapid changes in the ecology, socioeconomy, and westernization of the life style. This slow but steady decline is believed to be the consequences of radical changes from food collection to wage-based life style and dietary improvement in recent years and elimination of exogenous factors. Those risk factor(s) are believed to be the environmental trace metals which must have triggered the accelerated oxidative stresses in the motor neurons of genetically susceptible population. Changing Epidermiology: 1. The annual incidence of 70/100,000 in 1960s down to 7/100,000 in 1990s, and remained unchanged for past 15 years. 2. Upward shift of age at onset by 10 years and at death by 8 years and even out of sex ratio. 3. Birth cohort analysis showed less risks for those born after 1920. No ALS cases born after 1945. 4. No increase in the incidence of ALS among non-Chamorros transients of Guam and Marianas during W.W.II. 5. Long-term resident non-Charmorro and half-Chamorros on Guam are also affected. 6. Charmorro migrants to U.S. Mainland are affected after long absence from Guam. 7. Incubation period for both ways is estimated to be 18 approximately 20 years. 8. Other forms of dementias like Alzheimer disease (AD) and vascular dementias are on the rise and the leading cause of death is cerebro- and cardiovascular diseases. 9. ALS is also declining in past 10 approximately 15 years in Kii peninsula, and West New Guinea. Changing Ecology of Guam: 1. One third of Island land was used for construction of huge military bases after W.W.II. 2. Urbanization of villages including concrete houses, deep well water supply, sewage, and electrification. 3. Tourism boom: high-rise hotels, development of 7 golf courses and other recreational facilities resulted in loss of flora and erosions of soil. Socioeconomic Changes: 1. Shift in population demography; Efflux of Chamorros and influx of aliens; Chamorros less than 50% by 1990. 2. Tourists passed 1 million in 1994. 3. Automobiles 1 car/1.5 person. 4. Westernization: After W.W.II, almost free access to Military Commissary for imported food and appliances. 5. Life style: from food collection to wage-based society. Genetic Studies: 1. Familial aggregations, but no clear-cut Mendelian inheritance. 2. Segregation analysis: no absolute genetic or environmental cause but additive gene component may play a role in genetic susceptibility and basis for geographical clustering. 3. Absence of Apo-E or Mu/Zn SOD genes. 4. Recent discovery of mtDNA Complex I deficiency in Parkinsonism-dementia cases suggests mitochondrial DNA abnormality. Comparative Environmental Studies: 1. Environmental studies in three hyperendemic areas in the Western Pacific--Kii, Marianas, and west New Guinea, where strikingly high incidences of ALS is known to occur, found the identical geochemical environment--low Ca, Mg, and Zn and high A1, Mn, Fe, Si, in the garden soil and drinking water. 2. Exogenous etiologic factors that are absent from primitive culture of Auyu and Jackai tribes in West New Guinea were eliminated. 3. Cycad neurotoxicity has been excluded. 4. Suspected exogenous agents that are common in these 3 hyperendemic areas are (a) locally grown vegetables, starchy roots, and reef fish; (b) surface water containing soluble organic minerals from red laterites; (c) rain water that is chemically pure and lack of essential minerals. Pathogenic Speculation: Chronic dietary deficiency since birth in Ca, Mg and Zn induced excessive absorption of divalent cations which accelerates oxidant-mediated neuronal degenerations in a genetically susceptible population. The process is probably carried through interactions between cytoskeletal abnormality of the neuron, aging process, abnormal proteins, and mitochondrial dysfunction.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis↗

Changing stillbirth rates: quality of care or quality of patients?

OBJECTIVES: To explain the U-shaped curve of stillbirth rates (SBR) in Harare. DESIGN: A retrospective descriptive study. SETTING: Greater Harare Maternity Unit SUBJECTS: A 15pc (approx.) sample of deliveries recorded in Labour Ward registers in 1979, 1984 and 1989. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Stillbirth or livebirth. RESULTS: Some changes over the three years (e.g. proportion of primipara) indicate that obstetric "riskiness" of the population changed in a way which could explain the changes in SBR. CONCLUSIONS: However SBR's of large babies (birth weight 2,500 g to 4,499 g) increased and decreased over the years implying that changes in quality of care may also have contributed to the changes in SBR.

Adolescent↗