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Derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood estimation in animal models with a sparse matrix solver.

Estimation of (co)variance components by derivative-free REML requires repeated evaluation of the log-likelihood function of the data. Gaussian elimination of the augmented mixed model coefficient matrix is often used to evaluate the likelihood function, but it can be costly for animal models with large coefficient matrices. This study investigated the use of a direct sparse matrix solver to obtain the log-likelihood function. The sparse matrix package SPARSPAK was used to reorder the mixed model equations once and then repeatedly to solve the equations by Cholesky factorization to generate the terms required to calculate the likelihood. The animal model used for comparison contained 19 fixed levels, 470 maternal permanent environmental effects, and 1586 direct and 1586 maternal genetic effects, resulting in a coefficient matrix of order 3661 with .3% nonzero elements after including numerator relationships. Compared with estimation via Gaussian elimination of the unordered system, utilization of SPARSPAK required 605 and 240 times less central processing unit time on mainframes and personal computers, respectively. The SPARSPAK package also required less memory and provided solutions for all effects in the model.

Algorithms↗

How to use and interpret interval likelihood ratios.

BACKGROUND: Likelihood ratios offer important advantages over sensitivity and specificity for characterizing diagnostic tests. They can capture the magnitude of abnormality of test results, whereas sensitivity and specificity require that the test results be dichotomized into positive or negative. This is an important advantage because many diagnostic tests are measured on continuous or ordinal scales. Posttest probabilities calculated from interval likelihood ratios may be different than those calculated from sensitivity and specificity; clinical decisions derived from the use of likelihood ratios may therefore be different from decisions derived from test results characterized by sensitivity and specificity. This article demonstrates the advantages, use, and interpretation of interval likelihood ratios using the clinical scenario of a young child with a high fever.

Age Factors↗

A partitioned likelihood analysis of swallowtail butterfly phylogeny (Lepidoptera:Papilionidae).

Although it is widely agreed that data from multiple sources are necessary to confidently resolve phylogenetic relationships, procedures for accommodating and incorporating heterogeneity in such data remain underdeveloped. We explored the use of partitioned, model-based analyses of heterogeneous molecular data in the context of a phylogenetic study of swallowtail butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). Despite substantial basic and applied study, phylogenetic relationships among the major lineages of this prominent group remain contentious. We sequenced 3.3 kb of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA (2.3 kb of cytochrome oxidase I and II and 1.0 kb of elongation factor-1 alpha, respectively) from 22 swallowtails, including representatives of Baroniinae, Parnassiinae, and Papilioninae, and from several moth and butterfly outgroups. Using parsimony, we encountered considerable difficulty in resolving the deepest splits among these taxa. We therefore chose two outgroups with undisputed relationships to each other and to Papilionidae and undertook detailed likelihood analyses of alternative topologies. Following from previous studies that have demonstrated substantial heterogeneity in the evolutionary dynamics among process partitions of these genes, we estimated evolutionary parameters separately for gene-based and codon-based partitions. These values were then used as the basis for examining the likelihoods of possible resolutions and rootings under several partitioned and unpartitioned likelihood models. Partitioned models gave markedly better fits to the data than did unpartitioned models and supported different topologies. However, the most likely topology varied from model to model. The most likely ingroup topology under the best-fitting, six-partition GTR + gamma model favors a paraphyletic Parnassiinae. However, when examining the likelihoods of alternative rootings of this tree relative to rootings of the classical hypothesis, two rootings of the latter emerge as most likely. Of these two, the most likely rooting is within the Papilioninae, although a rooting between Baronia and the remaining Papilionidae is only nonsignificantly less likely.

Animals↗

Stochastic search strategy for estimation of maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees.

The maximum likelihood (ML) method of phylogenetic tree construction is not as widely used as other tree construction methods (e.g., parsimony, neighbor-joining) because of the prohibitive amount of time required to find the ML tree when the number of sequences under consideration is large. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a stochastic search strategy for estimation of the ML tree that is based on a simulated annealing algorithm. The algorithm works by moving through tree space by way of a "local rearrangement" strategy so that topologies that improve the likelihood are always accepted, whereas those that decrease the likelihood are accepted with a probability that is related to the proportionate decrease in likelihood. Besides greatly reducing the time required to estimate the ML tree, the stochastic search strategy is less likely to become trapped in local optima than are existing algorithms for ML tree estimation. We demonstrate the success of the modified simulated annealing algorithm by comparing it with two existing algorithms (Swofford's PAUP* and Felsenstein's DNAMLK) for several theoretical and real data examples.

Algorithms↗

Reconstructing ancestral patterns of colonization and dispersal in the Hawaiian understory tree genus Psychotria (Rubiaceae): a comparison of parsimony and likelihood approaches.

Systematic and biogeographical relationships within the Hawaiian clade of the pantropical understory shrub genus Psychotria (Rubiaceae) were investigated using phylogenetic analysis of 18S-26S ribosomal DNA internal (ITS) and external (ETS) transcribed spacers. Phylogenetic analyses strongly suggest that the Hawaiian Psychotria are monophyletic and the result of a single introduction to the Hawaiian Islands. The results of phylogenetic analyses of ITS and ETS partitions alone give slightly different topologies among basal lineages of the Hawaiian clade; however, such differences are not well supported. Relationships in the section Straussia clade in particular are not well resolved because of few nucleotide changes on internal branches, suggesting extremely rapid radiation in the lineage. Parsimony and likelihood reconstructions of ancestral geographical distributions using the topologies inferred from both parsimony and likelihood analysis of combined data and using different combinations of models and branch lengths gave highly congruent results. However, for one internal node (corresponding to the majority of the "greenwelliae" clade), parsimony reconstructions were unable to distinguish between three possible island states, whereas likelihood reconstructions resulted in clear ordering of possible states, with the island of Oàhu slightly more probable than other islands under all but one model and branch length combination considered (the Jukes-Cantor-like model with branch lengths inferred under parsimony, under which conditions Maui Nui is more probable). A pattern of colonization from oldest to youngest islands was inferred from the phylogeny, using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood. Additionally, a much higher incidence of intraisland versus interisland speciation was inferred.

Base Sequence↗

Maximum likelihood estimation of cascade point-process neural encoding models.

Recent work has examined the estimation of models of stimulus-driven neural activity in which some linear filtering process is followed by a nonlinear, probabilistic spiking stage. We analyze the estimation of one such model for which this nonlinear step is implemented by a known parametric function; the assumption that this function is known speeds the estimation process considerably. We investigate the shape of the likelihood function for this type of model, give a simple condition on the nonlinearity ensuring that no non-global local maxima exist in the likelihood-leading, in turn, to efficient algorithms for the computation of the maximum likelihood estimator-and discuss the implications for the form of the allowed nonlinearities. Finally, we note some interesting connections between the likelihood-based estimators and the classical spike-triggered average estimator, discuss some useful extensions of the basic model structure, and provide two novel applications to physiological data.

Algorithms↗

Where is the likelihood ratio test powerful for detecting two component normal mixtures?

We compare the power of the likelihood ratio test, the Engelman-Hartigan test, two outlier tests, four goodness-of-fit tests, and eight tests of normality to detect a mixture consisting of two components that are normally distributed with different means but equal variances. We consider the entire range of mixing proportions pi, 0 < pi < 1. For pi > .85 or pi < .15, overall Fisher's skewness statistic is best with Filliben's probability plot correlation coefficient test somewhat less powerful. A combined skewness and kurtosis test, the Anderson-Darling test, and the likelihood ratio test are also competitive. For .35 < pi < .65, the Engelman-Hartigan test is best. For other mixing proportions, the likelihood ratio test is best. For situations in which the preferred test had power 50% or more, the power of the likelihood ratio test is also above 50% and within 15 percentage points of the preferred test.

Alleles↗

Continual reassessment method: a likelihood approach.

The continual reassessment method as described by O'Quigley, Pepe, and Fisher (1990, Biometrics 46, 33-48) leans to a large extent upon a Bayesian methodology. Initial experimentation and sequential updating are carried out in a natural way within the context of a Bayesian framework. In this paper we argue that such a framework is easily changed to a more classic one leaning upon likelihood theory. The essential features of the continual reassessment method remain unchanged. In particular, large sample properties are the same unless the prior is degenerate. For small samples and as far as the final recommended dose level is concerned, simulations indicate that there is not much to choose between a likelihood approach and a Bayesian one. However, for in-trial allocation of dose levels to patients, there are some differences and these are discussed. In contrast to the Bayesian approach, a likelihood one requires some extra effort to get off the ground. This is because the likelihood equation has no solution until we observe a toxicity. Initially then we suggest working with either a standard Up-and-Down scheme or standard continual reassessment method until toxicity is observed and then switching to the new scheme.

Bayes Theorem↗

The rational clinical examination. Is this patient allergic to penicillin? An evidence-based analysis of the likelihood of penicillin allergy.

CONTEXT: Clinicians frequently withhold antibiotics that contain penicillin based on patients' self-reported clinical history of an adverse reaction to penicillin and the clinicians' own misunderstandings about the characteristics of a true penicillin allergy. OBJECTIVES: To determine the likelihood of true penicillin allergy with consideration of clinical history and to evaluate the diagnostic value added by appropriate skin testing. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE was searched for relevant English-language articles dated 1966 to October 2000. Bibliographies were searched to identify additional articles. STUDY SELECTION: We included original studies describing the precision of skin testing in diagnosis of penicillin allergy. We excluded studies that did not use both minor and major determinants, provide an explicit definition of penicillin allergy, or list the specific criteria necessary for a positive skin test result. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria. DATA EXTRACTION: Three authors independently reviewed and abstracted data from all articles and reached consensus about any discrepancies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Patients' self-reported history has low accuracy for diagnosis of true penicillin allergy. By evaluating studies comparing clinical history to the skin test for penicillin allergy among patients with and without a positive history for penicillin allergy, positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. History of penicillin allergy had a positive likelihood ratio of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-2.5), while absence of history of penicillin allergy had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4-0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Only 10% to 20% of patients reporting a history of penicillin allergy are truly allergic when assessed by skin testing. Taking a detailed history of a patient's reaction to penicillin may allow clinicians to exclude true penicillin allergy, allowing these patients to receive penicillin. Patients with a concerning history of type I penicillin allergy who have a compelling need for a drug containing penicillin should undergo skin testing. Virtually all patients with a negative skin test result can take penicillin without serious sequelae.

Cephalosporins↗

A comparison of maximum likelihood and Jewell's estimators of the odds ratio and relative risk in single 2 x 2 tables.

This paper compares the maximum likelihood estimators of the odds ratio and relative risk in 2 x 2 tables with less biased estimators recently proposed by Jewell for small samples. In addition to bias, location in the confidence interval, and relative likelihood are calculated for ranges of sample sizes, probabilities (of exposure or disease) and true values of the odds ratio and relative risk. Jewell's estimators perform poorly from the perspectives of confidence intervals and likelihood. Given these and other problems, continued use of the maximum likelihood estimators is recommended.

Cohort Studies↗

Likelihood ratio for trisomy 21 in fetuses with absent nasal bone at the 11-14-week scan.

OBJECTIVE: To update the likelihood ratio for trisomy 21 in fetuses with absent nasal bone at the 11-14-week scan. METHODS: Ultrasound examination of the fetal profile was carried out and the presence or absence of the nasal bone was noted immediately before karyotyping in 5918 fetuses at 11 to 13+6 weeks. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the effect of maternal ethnic origin and fetal crown-rump length (CRL) and nuchal translucency (NT) on the incidence of absent nasal bone in the chromosomally normal and trisomy 21 fetuses. RESULTS: The fetal profile was successfully examined in 5851 (98.9%) cases. In 5223/5851 cases the fetal karyotype was normal and in 628 cases it was abnormal. In the chromosomally normal group the incidence of absent nasal bone was related first to the ethnic origin of the mother, being 2.2% for Caucasians, 9.0% for Afro-Caribbeans and 5.0% for Asians; second to fetal CRL, being 4.7% for CRL of 45-54 mm, 3.4% for CRL of 55-64 mm, 1.4% for CRL of 65-74 mm and 1% for CRL of 75-84 mm; and third to NT, being 1.6% for NT < or = 95th centile, 2.7% for NT > 95th centile-3.4 mm, 5.4% for NT 3.5-4.4 mm, 6% for NT 4.5-5.4 mm and 15% for NT > or = 5.5 mm. In the chromosomally abnormal group there was absent nasal bone in 229/333 (68.8%) cases with trisomy 21 and in 95/295 (32.2%) cases with other chromosomal defects. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that in the chromosomally normal fetuses significant independent prediction of the likelihood of absent nasal bone was provided by CRL, NT and Afro-Caribbean ethnic group, and in the trisomy 21 fetuses by CRL and NT. The likelihood ratio for trisomy 21 for absent nasal bone was derived by dividing the likelihood in trisomy 21 by that in normal fetuses. CONCLUSION: At the 11-14-week scan the incidence of absent nasal bone is related to the presence or absence of chromosomal defects, CRL, NT and ethnic origin.

Adolescent↗

Likelihood of undergoing genetic testing for cancer risk: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on public perceptions of genetic susceptibility testing for cancer risks are few and tend to focus on specific cancer risks of higher-risk populations, ignoring the general population and their perceived risk of getting any cancers. This study develops and tests a psychosocial model of the proximal and distal influences on likelihood of undergoing genetic susceptibility testing for cancer risk among a population-based sample. METHODS: The sample consisted of 622 adults aged 18-75 interviewed by telephone. The survey instrument included measures derived from the Health Belief Model and adaptations of existing measures from the literature. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling techniques. RESULTS: The model suggested independent main effects for perceived benefits, perceived barriers, perceived susceptibility, and pessimism while simultaneously accounting for the effects of age, socioeconomic status, family history of cancer, and awareness of the existence of genetic susceptibility testing for cancer risk. The model explained 34% of the variance in likelihood. CONCLUSIONS: While perceived benefits, perceived barriers, perceived susceptibility, and pessimism may directly impact likelihood, they may also mediate the effects of age, socioeconomic status, family history of cancer, and awareness of cancer genetic susceptibility testing, on likelihood.

Adolescent↗

Evaluation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the evolutionary tree topologies from DNA sequence data, and the branching order in hominoidea.

A maximum likelihood method for inferring evolutionary trees from DNA sequence data was developed by Felsenstein (1981). In evaluating the extent to which the maximum likelihood tree is a significantly better representation of the true tree, it is important to estimate the variance of the difference between log likelihood of different tree topologies. Bootstrap resampling can be used for this purpose (Hasegawa et al. 1988; Hasegawa and Kishino 1989), but it imposes a great computation burden. To overcome this difficulty, we developed a new method for estimating the variance by expressing it explicitly. The method was applied to DNA sequence data from primates in order to evaluate the maximum likelihood branching order among Hominoidea. It was shown that, although the orangutan is convincingly placed as an outgroup of a human and African apes clade, the branching order among human, chimpanzee, and gorilla cannot be determined confidently from the DNA sequence data presently available when the evolutionary rate constancy is not assumed.

Animals↗

Stress myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography is clinically effective and cost effective in risk stratification of patients with a high likelihood of coronary artery disease (CAD) but no known CAD.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the prognostic and cost implications of stress myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), or MPS, in patients with a high pretest likelihood (>0.85) of coronary artery disease (CAD) with no previous CAD. BACKGROUND: Sparse data are available regarding the prognostic performance characteristics of MPS in this patient group. METHOD: We followed up 1,270 consecutive patients with no previous revascularization or myocardial infarction (MI), with a pre-exercise tolerance test (ETT) likelihood of CAD > or =0.85, who underwent exercise or adenosine stress MPS (follow-up 94.4% complete; 2.2 +/- 1.2 years; 60 hard events [5.9%, 2.6%/year]). Risk adjustment of survival data was done using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Costs per reclassification of risk were calculated using assumed costs and threshold analyses. RESULTS: In patients treated medically after MPS, normal MPS had a low risk of cardiac death and hard events (0.6% and 1.3% per year, respectively). With increasing extent and severity of MPS defects, the risk of both cardiac death and hard events increased significantly (p < 0.05). Cox models indicated that the addition of MPS data resulted in incremental prognostic value over pre-MPS data (chi-square increase 48 to 87, p < 0.0001). Compared with strategies of initial referral to ETT in patients able to exercise, initial referral to MPS appeared to be a more cost-effective strategy. Similarly, compared with a strategy of direct referral to catheterization in patients with a high likelihood of CAD, initial referral to MPS is a cost-saving approach. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a high likelihood of CAD but without known CAD, stress MPS yields incremental value and achieves risk stratification in a cost-effective manner. The current results support a strategy of initial stress imaging in this patient cohort, as a reasonable alternative to direct referral to catheterization or initial ETT.

Aged↗

Risk assessment in 457 adrenal cortical carcinomas: how much does tumor size predict the likelihood of malignancy?

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic adrenalectomy for tumors > 6 cm is controversial because of the risk of malignancy, but data to support this position are mostly from small series. The recent NIH consensus conference did not make a definitive recommendation about management of 4- to 6-cm nonfunctioning incidentalomas. STUDY DESIGN: Adrenocortical carcinomas (ACC) recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1988 to 2000) were compared with benign functional or nonfunctional adrenal cortical adenomas (excluding aldosteronomas) operated on at our institution between January 1, 1993, and July 1, 2003. Data were compared using t-tests, chi-square tests, likelihood ratios, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: We identified 457 patients with ACC and 47 patients with adrenal cortical adenomas; 376 and 44 neoplasms, respectively, had tumor size data available. Tumor size was larger in ACC (12.0 +/- 5.6 versus 4.2 +/- 1.9 cm, mean +/- SD, p < 0.05). For ACC presenting with local disease, the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of tumor size to predict malignancy were 96%, 52%, and 2.0, respectively, for tumors > or = 4 cm; 90%, 80%, and 4.4 for tumors > or = 6 cm; 77%, 95%, and 16.9 for tumors > or = 8 cm; and 55%, 98%, and 24.4 for tumors > or = 10 cm. Assuming a pretest probability of malignancy of 5%, the likelihood ratios derived from this study yield a posttest probability of 10%, 19%, and 47% for cancer in adrenal cortical tumors > or = 4 cm, > or = 6 cm, and > or = 8 cm, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that size is useful for predicting malignancy, and that at a size threshold of > or = 4 cm, the likelihood of malignancy doubles (to 10%) and it is more than ninefold higher for tumors > or = 8 cm (47%).

Adolescent↗

Children's understanding of adverbs denoting degree of likelihood.

Two studies were conducted to examine children's understanding of three terms that denote different degrees of likelihood: possibly, probably and definitely. In Study I, children in preschool, and first, third and fourth grade completed a comparison task involving pairs of likelihood terms. Twelve stories were created that described the likelihood that each of two children would participate in an activity, and subjects judged which of the two children actually participated. In Study 2, children in preschool, and first, third and fifth grade evaluated separate statements describing three different children, each of whom was said to have a different estimate of the likelihood that a scary event depicted in a movie would actually occur. Subjects rated how scared each of the three children felt. The results of the two studies revealed that preschoolers showed very little comprehension of the meaning of any of the three words, but by fourth grade the majority of children distinguished among all three terms. Children understood the distinction between definitely and both of the other terms (possibly, probably) better than they understood the distinction between possibly and probably. This finding is consistent with research on the development of children's understanding of probability concepts. Unexpectedly, the distinction between probably and definitely seems to emerge at a younger age than the distinction between possibly and definitely. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for communicating verbal messages to children.

Child↗

Cross-validated maximum likelihood enhances crystallographic simulated annealing refinement.

Recently, the target function for crystallographic refinement has been improved through a maximum likelihood analysis, which makes proper allowance for the effects of data quality, model errors, and incompleteness. The maximum likelihood target reduces the significance of false local minima during the refinement process, but it does not completely eliminate them, necessitating the use of stochastic optimization methods such as simulated annealing for poor initial models. It is shown that the combination of maximum likelihood with cross-validation, which reduces overfitting, and simulated annealing by torsion angle molecular dynamics, which simplifies the conformational search problem, results in a major improvement of the radius of convergence of refinement and the accuracy of the refined structure. Torsion angle molecular dynamics and the maximum likelihood target function interact synergistically, the combination of both methods being significantly more powerful than each method individually. This is demonstrated in realistic test cases at two typical minimum Bragg spacings (dmin = 2.0 and 2.8 A, respectively), illustrating the broad applicability of the combined method. In an application to the refinement of a new crystal structure, the combined method automatically corrected a mistraced loop in a poor initial model, moving the backbone by 4 A.

Amylases↗

Medical specialization, profession, and mediating beliefs that predict stated likelihood of alcohol screening and brief intervention: targeting educational interventions.

Practitioner-level educational approaches that promote screening and brief intervention (SBI) seldom consider providers' profession and medical specialization. Strategies that consider these variables may be better equipped to affect change in beliefs and behavior. The aim of this study was to identify beliefs that predict stated likelihood of practicing SBI by specialty and health profession in order to guide the direction of educational strategies. Physicians and nurse practitioners were studied that specialized in family, internal, obstetric gynecology (ObGyn), and pediatric medicine. The results indicated that independent of amount of previous postgraduate alcohol education and knowledge, self-rated competence mediated between specialty and likelihood of practicing SBI. For instance, low self-rated competence for ObGyn was a barrier that suppressed likelihood of practicing SBI. Other findings were that role legitimacy mediated the association between profession and likelihood of SBI, so that lack of role legitimacy was a barrier for physicians but not for nurse practitioners. We suggest that targeted educational strategies for ObGyn and pediatric clinicians may prove more effective than the prevalent one-size-fits all approaches aimed at general adult populations.

Alcoholism↗