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Results for “Demographic Transition”

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PubMed1999

[Infectious and parasitic diseases in Brazil: a decade of transition].

Brazil has been undergoing a period of epidemiological and demographic transition, which has included an improvement in the quality of death certificate registrations and major changes in the patterns of mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases. This article outlines the changes in the mortality patterns that were observed in the country and in its states during the decade of the 1980s. We used data from the Ministry of Health Mortality Information System, classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision. Our analysis showed important changes in mortality patterns in Brazil. Mortality from infectious diseases decreased by 41% among men and by 44% among women. While these types of changes were especially noticeable in the states of the North and Northeast, these states still have the highest mortality rates in the country. The changes particularly affected the extreme limits of the age continuum, most especially children under 1 year of age. Within the group of infectious and parasitic diseases, we also assessed the mortality due to intestinal infectious diseases, tuberculosis, and septicemia. We found that in the 1980s there was a major decrease in the rates of mortality due to intestinal infectious diseases and to tuberculosis. However, there was an increase in the risk of death from septicemia during the decade. In conclusion, we find that the rate of mortality caused by infectious and parasitic diseases remains high in Brazil. Therefore, Brazilian health authorities still need to give priority attention to this cause of death.

Brazil↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Women's status and fertility: successive cross-sectional evidence from Tamil Nadu, India, 1970-80.

This study explores linkages between the status of women and fertility over time in Tamil Nadu, India, using sample survey data for currently married women aged 35-44 in 1970 and 1980. The effects of individual indicators of the status of women on fertility are decomposed into effects through each of the proximate variables, notably those affecting marriage duration, marital fertility, and contraception. There is considerable variation in the direction and magnitude of the relationships between the status indicators and fertility behavior and in the relationship to the underlying mechanisms at the two points in time. On balance, the evidence suggests improvements in the status of women come to exert an increasingly negative effect on fertility over the course of demographic transition.

Adult↗

PubMed1983

[The natural increase of the Catholic population of Quebec before 1850: historiographic and quantitative perspectives].

"The author presents a critical evaluation of the different estimates of birth, death, and marriage rates in French Canada before 1850. He examines critically the sensitivity of these estimates to changes in the nature of the prevailing conceptual framework. In particular, the impact of the 'natalist' tradition and of the 'demographic transition hypothesis' on these estimates is noted." (summary in ENG)

Americas↗

PubMed1988

The infant mortality-fertility debate: some international evidence.

"The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the causal relationship, if any, between infant mortality and fertility in thirty-five developing countries." The focus is on possible relationships between the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate. "The hypothesis that infant mortality causes fertility is tested. The possibility of a 'reverse causation' is also analyzed. A one-sided distributed lag test as proposed by Granger...is employed." The results are analyzed in light of several versions of the mortality-fertility proposition, including demographic transition theory, choice theory, Ricardian theory, and the modern economic theory of population.

Behavior↗

PubMed1988

[African demography: trends and prospects].

"The development of the African population between 1950 and 1985 has shown considerable acceleration since 1965. On the basis of United Nations sources published in 1986, the current demographic situation is examined in its various aspects: age structure, natality, nuptiality, mortality, migration and urbanization. The relationship between population and development, particularly as regards demographic transition, is established, leading to comparisons between Africa and the rest of the world." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Africa↗

PubMed1990

Cross-national models of fertility, family planning, and development: testing for reciprocal effects.

Cross-national models of fertility, family planning, and development commonly assume that there are no reciprocal effect between fertility and other variables in the model and that when path models are used, there are no reciprocal or nonrecursive effects among any set of variables in the model. The present study tests for nonrecursiveness using 2-wave panel data, and finds that nonrecursive effects are present among variables commonly used in model of fertility, family planning, and development. In addition, the pattern of relationships found has implications for the explanation of the relationship between mortality and fertility in demographic transition theory.

Birth Rate↗

PubMed1991

Changing sex ratio of mortality in the Semai Senoi, 1969-1987.

An excess of male over female deaths is characteristic of modern national populations, whereas in some high-mortality societies female mortality exceeds that of males. Among the Semai Senoi, a Malaysian Orang Asli ("aboriginal") population, women experienced higher mortality than males in the decades before 1969. This differential occurred in all age classes older than 15 years so that the sex ratio progressively increased with age. A recent (1987) restudy of the Semai population found that sex-specific differential mortality is much reduced. A comparison of the 1969 and 1987 life tables shows a sharp shift in the sex ratios of mortality for the post-15-year-old age classes (the geometric means of age classes 15-44 were 0.768 in 1969 and 0.997 in 1987) so that male and female expectations of further life at age 15 are now nearly identical. In contrast to the best-known cases of high female mortality (mostly in South Asia), Semai sex differential mortality does not include the childhood ages. The Semai have traditionally been relatively sexually egalitarian, and sex bias in care has not occurred. Analysis of sex-specific causes of death for the pre-1969 population suggests that maternal mortality is the major cause of the excess female deaths. The reduced number of maternal deaths seems largely due to better health care, particularly the availability of hospital services. Interestingly, the reduction in female mortality has occurred simultaneously with increased fertility, and overall mortality has continued at relatively high levels (eO less than 36). Thus, rather than forming a component of a unitary demographic transition, declining sex differences in mortality can be accounted for by a specific factor, better maternal care.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Critique of zero population growth theory.

This is a critique of widely held theories concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development. "The central purpose of this paper is to critically analyse the zero population growth movement. The hypotheses of Neo-Malthusian theory or Zero Population Growth and the concept of Population Bomb will be briefly stated in Section 1. Section 2 will discuss the theory of demographic transition. Section 3 will critically examine the validity of the Neo-Malthusian theory of population growth. Our conclusions and recommendations will be stated in Section 4." The author's main contention is that overconsumption in developed countries is the major cause of the deterioration of the environment rather than overpopulation in the developing countries.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗

PubMed1991

Paths for future population aging.

Developed countries with low fertility and mortality rates are already experiencing population aging and will continue to do so. Some developing countries undergoing demographic transitions are beginning to acknowledge the issues of population aging. The projected declines in fertility in other developing countries will mean substantial population aging in the future. Alternative measures for population aging can clarify issues that arise with this process. Because population aging is inevitable, all countries need to incorporate aging policies with population policies.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Population-poverty inter-linkages and poverty alleviation strategies.

"This paper consists of four parts. The first part provides a brief review of progress of the demographic transition in the ESCAP region; the second part considers the patterns of growth and poverty in the region; the third part examines issues with reference to...household decision-making, and the fourth consists of a discussion of policies and strategies aimed at limiting population growth and alleviating poverty."

Asia↗

PubMed1987

Women's status and family planning in Haiti.

"The paper argues that women's status in Haiti is a factor favorable to the spread of modern contraception and a potential rapid demographic transition from high to low fertility. After briefly reviewing recent theories on the determining of fertility declines, the paper considers women's status in Haiti. It discusses family patterns, conjugal unions, and economic activities. Finally, it reviews current patterns of contraceptive use and considers how these are related to various aspects of women's status."

Americas↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Are fertility differentials by education converging in the United States?

"According to the theory of demographic transition, fertility differentials by education tend to become strongly negative in the early stages of transition, because family limitation tends to catch on first among the more educated. As the transition proceeds, contraceptive use diffuses to the less educated, and fertility differentials by education eventually tend to reconverge. The question addressed here is: Do fertility differentials by education disappear or become positive in advanced industrial societies? Evidence presented in this paper indicates that in the United States they do not. As late as 1990, the latest year that we consider, fertility differentials by education were still strongly negative." (SUMMARY IN ITA AND FRE)

Americas↗

PubMed1995

[Population aging in South-East Asia and policies of old-age support].

"The problem of ageing is generally perceived as being typical of developed countries, as these have in most cases reached the last stage of their demographic transition. On the other hand, a rapid decline of the fertility rate, knowingly associated [with] a quick improvement of socio-economic factors and, often, [with] successful birth-control policies, is causing a sharp increase of the relative amount of elderly people also in some developing countries. This has a dramatic impact on family structures that, in traditional societies, assist the elderly relatives, while the government is usually still unable to provide institutional support. The issue is analysed in the South East Asian context." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

Asia↗

PubMed1994

Implications of changes in family dynamics in India: 1971-1988.

"This paper examines the implications of demographic transition...on kinship relationships in India during 1971-1988. Three simulations based on the schedules of fertility and mortality of India during 1971, 1981, and 1988 have been undertaken. The kinship size constitutes parents, grand parents, siblings (brothers and sisters) and children. Improved mortality condition has increased the percentage of kins in ancestor generation. The percentage of kins in ancestor generation was 15 percent in 1988 as compared to 8.5 percent in 1971.... The increase in the percent of kins in ancestor generation and the support ratio obviously shows the aging of the population."

Asia↗

PubMed1990

Subsistence crop deficit and family structure in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The author seeks to provide demographic explanations for the current food crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa. "In the present paper, we will consider the possibility that one of these [explanations] may lie in the way African families are structured, particularly in countries that are still in the first stage of the demographic transition. More specifically, we will examine the following two assumptions: the effects which the rural-urban migration...has on food production may be amplified by the way family labour is divided between the sexes and the different age groups; [and] lower mortality increases the size of the kin group, while rural-urban migration decreases the proportion of family members engaged in agricultural production, thus perturbing the distribution and consumption of subsistence foods."

Africa↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Anticipated child loss to migration and sustained high fertility in an east Caribbean population.

Development today is commonly accompanied by rapid urbanization and, where possible, high rates of migration to industrialized countries. At the same time, the expected demographic transition has often not materialized despite decreases in death rates. Child-to-woman ratios in St. Vincent and the Grenadines are related to the educational attainment of women in a census district, the percentage of men engaged in agriculture, whether the district has direct access to the outside world through a port or airport, and, when the other variables are controlled, the stability of a district's population. Those districts with the greatest stability of population had the lowest child-to-woman ratios, suggesting that the anticipated loss of children to migration may be an important factor in maintaining high reproductive rates.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1984

Development aspects of migration in third world settings: a simulation, with implications for urbanization.

A simulation of the interrelationships between development and migration in developing countries is presented. "Development is represented as the diffusion of demographic transition, employment opportunities, and formal and communication channels, which in turn affect informal communications and the overall economic base. The simulation falls within the genre of neoclassical development models, but, unlike many, explicitly explores the long-run aspects of landscape evolution." The results generally "conform with expectations hypothesized in earlier research, including phenomena such as polarization reversal, converging regional disparities, and low-level equilibrium traps at small remote places where continual resource drain thwarts the agglomeration economies necessary for sustained growth. [The authors] also find that the initial urban system configuration has little effect on the final configuration, and that only urban size diseconomies are likely to alter significantly the size, spatial distribution, and spatial characteristics of the urban system."

Demography↗

PubMed1986

Fertility and adaptation: Indochinese refugees in the United States.

"Levels of fertility among Indochinese refugees in the United States are explored in the context of a highly compressed demographic transition implicit in the move from high-fertility Southeast Asian societies to a low-fertility resettlement region. A theoretical model is developed to explain the effect on refugee fertility of social background characteristics, migration history and patterns of adaptation to a different economic and cultural environment controlling for marital history and length of residence in the U.S." The chief source for the data and analyses is the Indochinese Health and Adaptation Research Project (IHARP), San Diego State University. "Multiple regression techniques are used to test the model which was found to account for nearly half of the variation in refugee fertility levels in the United States. Fertility is much higher for all Indochinese ethnic groups than it is for American women; the number of children in refugee families is in turn a major determinant of welfare dependency. Adjustments for rates of natural increase indicate a total 1985 Indochinese population of over one million, making it one of the largest Asian-origin populations in the United States."

Acculturation↗