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Prediction of the variance of stereological volume estimates from systematic sections using computer-intensive methods.

The Cavalieri method is an unbiased estimator of the total volume of a body from its transectional areas on systematic sections. The coefficient of error (CE) of the Cavalieri estimator was predicted by a computer-intensive method. The method is based on polynomial regression of area values on section number and simulation of systematic sectioning. The measurement function is modelled as a quadratic polynomial, with an error term superimposed. The relative influence of the trend and the error component is estimated by techniques of analysis of variance. This predictor was compared with two established short-cut estimators of the CE based on transitive theory. First, all predictors were applied to data sets from six deterministic models with analytically known CE. For these models, the CE was best predicted by the older short-cut estimator and by the computer-intensive approach, if the measurement function had finite jumps. The best prediction was provided by the newer short-cut estimator when the measurement function was continuous. The predictors were also applied to published empirical datasets. The first data set consisted of 10 series of areas of systematically sectioned rat hearts with 10-13 items, the second data set consisted of 13 series of systematically sampled transectional areas of various biological structures with 38-90 items. On the whole, similar mean values for the predicted CE were obtained with the older short-cut estimator and the computer-intensive method. These ranged in the same order of magnitude as resampling estimates of the CE from the empirical data sets, which were used as a cross-check. The mean values according to the newer short-cut CE estimator ranged distinctly lower than the resampling estimates. However, for individual data sets, it happened that the closest prediction as compared to the cross-check value could be provided by any of the three methods. This finding is discussed in terms of the statistical variability of the resampling estimate itself.

Analysis of Variance↗

The dual klepsydra model of internal time representation and time reproduction.

We present a model of the internal representation and reproduction of temporal durations, the 'dual klepsydra' model (DKM). Unlike most contemporary models operating on a 'pacemaker-counter' scheme, the DKM does not assume an oscillatory process as the internal time-base. It is based on irreversible, dissipative processes in inflow/outflow systems (leaky klepsydrae), whose states are continuously compared; if their states are equal, durations are subjectively perceived as equal. Model-based predictions fit experimental time reproduction data with good accuracy, and show qualitative features not accounted for by other models. The deterministic model is characterized by two parameters, kappa (outflow rate coefficient) and eta (ratio of inflow rates). A stochastic version of the model (SDKM) assumes randomly fluctuating inflows, involves two more parameters, and accounts for intra-individual variance of reproduced durations. Analysis of the SDKM leads to non-trivial problems in the stochastic theory, briefly sketched here. Methods of parameter estimation for both deterministic and stochastic versions are given. Applying the DKM to the subjective experience of time passage, we show how subjective measure of elapsed time is constituted. Finally, essential features of the model and its possible neurophysiological interpretation are discussed.

Animals↗

Radiation protection recommendations as applied to the disposal of long-lived solid radioactive waste. ICRP Publication 81.

The present publication deals with the radiological protection of members of the public following the disposal of long-lived solid radioactive waste using the 'concentrate and retain' strategy. It covers options including shallow land burial and deep geological disposal. The recommendations made in this report apply to new disposal facilities.The main protection issue concerns exposure that may or may not occur in the far future, i.e. a situation of potential exposure. Constrained optimisation is the central approach to evaluating the radiological acceptability of a waste disposal system. In this context optimisation of protection is a judgmental process with social and economic factors being taken into account and should be conducted in a structured essentially qualitative way.Two broad categories of exposure situations have to be considered: natural processes and human intrusion. Application of the radiological protection criteria to these two categories of exposure situations is different.In the first case, assessed doses or risks arising from natural processes should be compared with a constraint of no more than about 0.3 mSv per year or its risk equivalent of around 10(-5) per year. With regard to human intrusion, understood here as inadvertent human intrusion, the consequences from one or more plausible stylised scenarios should be considered in order to evaluate the resilience of the repository to such events. The Commission considers that in circumstances where human intrusion could lead to doses to those living around the site sufficiently high that intervention on current criteria would almost always be justified, reasonable efforts should be made at the repository development stage to reduce the probability of human intrusion or to limit its consequences. In this respect, the Commission has previously advised that an existing(1) annual dose of around 10 mSv per year may be used as a generic reference level below which intervention is not likely to be justifiable. Conversely, an existing(1) annual dose of around 100 mSv per year may be used as a generic reference level above which intervention should be considered almost always justifiable. Similar considerations apply in situations where the thresholds for deterministic effects in relevant organs are exceeded.The conclusion of the report is that in the Commission's view, provided reasonable measures have been taken both to satisfy the constraint for natural processes and to reduce the probability or the consequences of inadvertent human intrusion, and technical and managerial principles have been followed, then radiological protection requirements can be considered to have been complied with.

Journal Article↗

Analysis of growth kinetics by division tracking.

Cell division tracking using fluorescent dyes, such as carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester, provides a unique opportunity for analysis of cell growth kinetics. The present review article presents new methods for enhancing resolution of division tracking data as well as derivation of quantities that characterize growth from time-series data. These include the average time between successive divisions, the proportion of cells that survive and the proliferation per division. The physical significance of these measured quantities is interpreted by formulation of a two-compartment model of cell cycle transit characterized by stochastic and deterministic cell residence times, respectively. The model confirmed that survival is directly related to the proportion of cells that enter the next cell generation. The proportion of time that cells reside in the stochastic compartment is directly related to the proliferation per generation. This form of analysis provides a starting point for more sophisticated physical and biochemical models of cell cycle regulation.

Cell Count↗

Nonlinear noise reduction using reference data.

We introduce a method to clean uncorrelated deterministic and stochastic noise components from time series. It combines recently developed techniques for nonlinear projection with properties of the wavelet transform to extract noise in state space. The method requires that time series are generated by a dynamical system which is at least approximately deterministic and that they are recorded together with a reference signal. Its efficiency was tested on both simulated signals and measured magnetic fields of the heart. Convincing results are obtained even at low signal-to-noise ratios.

Journal Article↗

Noise, clutter, and determinism in infrared spectral signatures under varying meteorological conditions.

Infrared remote detection of chemical and biological agents in a complex environment depends on the ability to recognize threat signatures and differentiate them from the signatures of innocuous materials. In this paper, we addressed the methods of producing the constraint spectra needed to ensure reliable operation in a meteorologically changing environment. We collected arrays of background spectra of ground, woods, and low-angle sky on an irregular basis over a period of a year. Based on the hypothesis that the concentration fluctuations of species in the sensor's field of view can be exploited to form signatures, the standard deviations of the array (the result is characteristic of all fluctuations) and the difference array (the result is characteristic of sensor fluctuations) were computed. Subtracting these two spectra and filtering the result produced a spectrum, which is a measure of the IR fluctuations in the scene. The resulting set of scene spectra were processed into aberrant noise, and deterministic groups by numerical filtering and statistical methods.

Journal Article↗

Computer simulation of the effectiveness of male-linked translocations for the control of Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann.

A deterministic simulation model was used to establish the potential value of releasing male-linked translocation heterozygotes as a control measure for Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann. Theoretical population reductions exceeding 90% were obtained within 90 and 120 days after releases at initial ratios of 5 translocation males (TM): 1 normal male (NM) and 1 TM: 1 NM, respectively. Additional simulations emphasized the importance of the need for a method that would eliminate females from the release material. Releases containing 15% females were less effective than those with none. When a malaria subroutine was included in the model, the calculations showed that all the theoretical releases greatly reduced the number of malaria-infective females and therefore would have a profound effect on transmission of the disease. The number of malaria-infective females present was eliminated completely when only translocation males were released; however, a small number were present when the releases contained 15% females. Male-linked translocation males required longer periods of time to bring about population control than males that were completely sterile.

Animals↗

Linear birefringence of the central human cornea.

PURPOSE: To determine the polarization properties of the central cornea at perpendicular incidence in a normal human population on the assumption that the cornea behaves as a linear retarder. METHODS: A corneal polarimeter provided a view of the fourth Purkinje image of a yellow (585 nm) light-emitting diode through crossed polarizers and a variable retarder. The Purkinje image was extinguished by adjusting the fast axis and retardance of the retarder to match the slow axis and double-pass retardance of the cornea. Both eyes of 73 normal subjects (49 women, 24 men; ages, 21-71 years) were measured. Correlations were expressed as Pearson's r. RESULTS: In most corneas the slow axis pointed nasally downward, with the peak of the axis distribution falling between 10 degrees and 20 degrees nasally downward. Double-pass corneal retardance varied widely (range, 0-250 nm); 80% of retardance values were uniformly distributed from 40 to 140 nm. Retardance was moderately correlated with axis (r approximately 0.5), such that weaker retardance was associated with axes that were more nasally downward. Corneal birefringence was well correlated between the two eyes of a subject in both axis (r = 0.77) and retardance (r = 0.75). CONCLUSIONS: The variation of corneal birefringence among individuals is substantial enough to produce large, uncontrolled differences in the polarization state of a measuring beam, differences that can introduce variability in newer technologies for ophthalmic diagnosis. The interocular similarity of corneal birefringence suggests deterministic control of corneal development.

Adult↗

[Radiation exposure doses in medical procedures].

An investigation was conducted concerning long-term changes of patients' radiation exposure doses in medical procedures such as chest X-ray and CT scans. The result of the investigation compelled consideration of methods for reducing the exposure doses. While the exposure doses have decreased in chest X-ray compared with 30 years ago, they have remained unchanged in CT scan compared with 20 years ago. The following address possible causes of unchanged doses for CT scan: Measuring doses is difficult. Technology to reduce patients' doses has yet to be used effectively. It is important to take deterministic causes into consideration. More research and attention to the issue are needed.

Humans↗

Absorbed dose and deterministic effects to patients from interventional neuroradiology.

Following the presentation of radiation-induced skin effects by three patients who had undergone glue embolisation of intracranial arteriovenous malformation (AVM), measurements were made of absorbed dose to the skin of patients undergoing other interventional neuroradiological procedures that involve long fluoroscopy times. The maximum absorbed dose to the skin measured by thermoluminescent dosemeters during these procedures was 4 Gy. From these measurements and from records of fluoroscopy time and the number of digital runs acquired, estimates of the maximum absorbed skin dose were made for the AVM patients. The best estimate of maximum absorbed dose to the skin received by any of the AVM patients during a procedure was 5 Gy, which is consistent with the skin effects presented by the AVM patients, that is temporary epilation and main erythema. Maximum absorbed dose to the skull was estimated to be 45 Gy and to the outer table of the skull 55 Gy. Although it is unlikely that the AVM patients will suffer serious effects from these skin doses, there remains some uncertainty over the risk of long-term effects to the skull. Examination of the fluoroscopy unit showed that the image intensifier was not performing optimally in terms of entrance dose rate and resolution. Replacement of the unit with modern X-ray equipment designed for interventional radiology was prioritized. Operators should be aware of the potential risks to patients from complex interventional neuroradiology procedures and should optimize their procedures to minimize such risks. Patients undergoing prolonged and complex procedures should be counselled regarding the symptoms and risks of large doses of radiation.

Alopecia↗

Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model.

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D.Z.N 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet, and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

Acetylesterase↗

Nonlinear deterministic analysis of tissue texture: a stereological study on mastopathic and mammary cancer tissue using chaos theory.

Signals from some dynamical systems look like stochastic processes although their latent mechanism is deterministic. When such systems show sensitive dependence on small changes of initial conditions, they are denoted as deterministic chaos. Motivated by recent advances in statistical inference methods for chaotic systems and by the concept of spatial chaos, we present a deterministic approach to the study of epithelial tissue texture. Methods for estimation of the autocorrelation function, for evaluation of the power spectrum, for attractor reconstruction, for estimation of the Lyapunov exponent and of the correlation dimension, and for the generation of surrogate data sets are outlined. In our biological example, these methods are applied to 20 cases of mastopathy as compared to 20 cases of mammary cancer. The input signals for the analysis were estimates of epithelial fraction measured at low magnification within 5100 equally spaced line segments per case perpendicular to an arbitrarily directed axis. The results suggest the existence of a low-dimensional deterministic attractor in mastopathic tissue texture, which is replaced by coloured noise in the majority of mammary carcinomas. Biological mechanisms for this finding and scale effects are discussed, and some methodological aspects and possible extensions of our approach are outlined.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Estimates of ozone AOT40 from passive sampling in forest sites in South-Western Europe.

Weekly-fortnightly ozone (O3) concentrations measured by passive sampling at 81 forest monitoring plots in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland over the period 2000-2002 were used to estimate the cumulative exposure index AOT40. The estimation method is based on a deterministic model which describes the O3 daily profile as a function of relative altitude (the difference between the altitude of the site and the lowest altitude within a 5 km radius) and the time of the day. Estimated AOT40 values (AOT40(e)) were evaluated against co-located automatic measurement stations and with 14 independent automatic stations located throughout Italy whose weekly mean O3 values were used to simulate passive samplers. AOT40 can be predicted by modelling passive sampling data (R2: 0.90; P<0.0001, SE of estimates: 3271 ppb h), although considerable deviations can occur for individual sites. Estimated AOT40 shows a distinct, significant latitudinal and altitudinal gradient. Taking the 3-year average as a whole, exceedance of critical level of 5000 ppb h occurs at 77-100% of the monitored sites, respectively.

Altitude↗

Nonlinear noise reduction for electrocardiograms.

The electrical activity of the heart usually shows dynamical behavior which is neither periodic nor deterministically chaotic: The interbeat intervals seem to contain a random component. Although long term predictions are thus impossible, good predictions can be made for times smaller than one heart cycle. This fact is used in order to suppress measurement errors by a local geometric projection method which was originally developed for chaotic signals. The result constitutes evidence that techniques of time series analysis based on chaos theory can be useful despite the fact that very few natural phenomena have been actually established to be deterministically chaotic. (c) 1996 American Institute of Physics.

Journal Article↗

Application of the new MultiTrans SP3 radiation transport code in BNCT dose planning.

Dose planning in boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) is a complex problem and requires sophisticated numerical methods. In the framework of the Finnish BNCT project, new deterministic three-dimensional radiation transport code MultiTrans SP3 has been developed at VTT Chemical Technology, based on a novel application of the tree multigrid technique. To test the applicability of this new code in a realistic BNCT dose planning problem, cylindrical PMMA (polymethyl-methacrylate) phantom was chosen as a benchmark case. It is a convenient benchmark, as it has been modeled by several different codes, including well-known DORT and MCNP. Extensive measured data also exist. In this paper, a comparison of the new MultiTrans SP3 code with other methods is presented for the PMMA phantom case. Results show that the total neutron dose rate to ICRU adult brain calculated by the MultiTrans SP3 code differs less than 4% in 2 cm depth in phantom (in thermal maximum) from the DORT calculation. Results also show that the calculated 197Au(n,gamma) and 55Mn(n,gamma) reaction rates in 2 cm depth in phantom differ less than 4% and 1% from the measured values, respectively. However, the photon dose calculated by the MultiTrans SP3 code seems to be incorrect in this PMMA phantom case, which requires further studying. As expected, the deterministic MultiTrans SP3 code is over an order of magnitude faster than stochastic Monte Carlo codes (with similar resolution), thus providing a very efficient tool for BNCT dose planning.

Adult↗

Orderliness of hormone release.

ApEn, approximate entropy, is a recently formulated family of parameters and statistics quantifying regularity (orderliness) in serial data, with developments both within theoretical mathematics, as well as numerous applications to multiple biological contexts. ApEn appears to have broad application to hormone pulsatility analysis within endocrinology, bringing a new perspective to the assessment of secretory patterns. ApEn is complementary to pulse detection algorithms widely employed to evaluate hormone secretion time-series--it is scale-invariant and model-independent, evaluates both dominant and subordinant patterns in data, discriminates series for which clear pulse recognition is difficult, and often provides a direct barometer of feedback between subsystems. ApEn is applicable to systems with at least 50 data points and to broad classes of models: it can be applied to discriminate both general classes of correlated stochastic processes, as well as noisy deterministic systems. Moreover, ApEn is complementary to spectral and autocorrelation analyses, providing effective discriminatory capability in instances in which the aforementioned measures exhibit minimal distinctions. We present some basic background on the above, and illustrate various facets of ApEn utility via several representative endocrinological studies.

Animals↗

A stochastic model for the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population.

A non-age-dependent model, describing the evolution of a bisexual population, is developed in this paper and applied to projecting an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population. Included in the formulation are frequency- and non-frequency-dependent rules of partnership formation as well as five states of HIV disease, affecting the probability of infection per sexual contact. Results from computer experiments, designed to study the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population fed by single males with a 50% prevalence of HIV infection prior to becoming active in heterosexual partnerships, are reported. In these experiments, the only source of HIV infection for females was sexual contacts with infected males within partnerships. Data on the probability of infection per sexual contact with an infected partner and the number of sexual contacts per month were incorporated into the model. However, the numbers used for the initial population of singles, couples, and those becoming sexually active per month were hypothetical. Even though the prevalence of HIV infection among males entering heterosexual partnerships was high, after 30 years the projected prevalence of HIV infection among females ranged from about 10 to 15% depending in part on the expected duration of partnerships and on whether the frequency- or non-frequency-dependent model was used. In these experiments, solutions of the embedded, nonlinear, deterministic equations for the incidence of HIV infection and the cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS proved to be good measures of central tendency for the sample functions of the stochastic population process.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

A Powerful Algorithm to aid Cardiac Arrhythmia Diagnosis.

The Electrocardiogram (ECG), represents the electrical activity of the heart. It is characterised by a number of waves P, QRS, T which are correlated to the status of the heart activity. In this paper, the aim is to present a powerful algorithm to aid cardiac diagnosis. The approach used is based on a determinist method, that of the tree decision. However, the different waves of the ECG signal need to be identified and then measured following a signal to noise enhancement. Signal to noise enhancement is performed by a combiner linear adaptive filter whereas P, QRS, T wave identification and measurement are performed by a derivative approach. Results obtained on simulated and real ECG signals are shown to be highly, satisfactory in the aid of cardiac arrhythmia diagnosis, such as junctionnal escapes, blocks, etc.

Journal Article↗