[Recent changes in the field of therapeutic abortion: statistical data, observations, perspectives].
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Rates of teenage pregnancy, birth and abortion vary greatly among states. Because states that have high birthrates tend to have low abortion rates, pregnancy levels vary much less than do the birth and abortion measures. The role of unintended pregnancy is highlighted by the fact that in states that have very high pregnancy rates, the adolescent abortion rate is higher than the birthrate and the abortion rate combined in states that have the lowest pregnancy rates. A series of multivariate analyses that controlled for the percentage of the state population that was black, poor and metropolitan showed that social factors tend to be more important determinants of state differences in teenage pregnancy, birth and abortion levels than are policy-related variables, particularly for whites. Nevertheless, some policy measures have important associations for both races, especially for blacks. Social factors. High rates of population growth and residential mobility over the previous decade, a high crime rate, a high teenage suicide rate, extensive circulation of sexually explicit magazines, a large percentage not voting in elections and a high level of stress are all associated with high pregnancy-related rates for teenagers. The percentage of children living in female-headed households correlates positively with abortion and pregnancy levels among white teenagers, but has no significant association with the birthrate. The percentage of a state's population that belongs to fundamentalist religious groups is positively associated with adolescent birthrates. Political liberalism correlates with relatively low pregnancy rates and birthrates but with a somewhat higher likelihood of pregnancies being terminated by abortion. In states where women's status is higher, birthrates are lower, but abortion levels are higher. Policy measures. States that have high proportions of teenagers dropping out of school and of young women not graduating from high school tend to have high pregnancy rates and birthrates and a somewhat lower proportion of pregnancies ending in abortion. Increased spending on education is associated with relatively high abortion rates (and, therefore, pregnancy rates). The higher the teacher-student ratio, the lower the adolescent birthrate and the more likely the pregnant teenager is to have an abortion. Welfare payments to teenage mothers are negatively associated with both black and white teenage birthrates, and higher maximum payments are associated with relatively high abortion levels.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
Even in countries with high rates of legal induced abortion, contraceptive use and marital patterns nearly always have a greater impact on fertility levels than does abortion. As a rule, extremely high rates of abortion--three or more abortions per woman of childbearing age during the reproductive years--are required for the fertility-inhibiting effect of abortion to rival that of contraceptive use. Nevertheless, the absolute effect of abortion on fertility (defined as the amount by which the current total fertility rate, or TFR, would increase if no abortions were performed) is often substantial. In most of the countries examined, the TFR would have been from about 20 percent to nearly 90 percent higher than it actually was (other things being equal) had no induced abortions been performed. Among developed countries, the Soviet Union, Japan, Eastern European countries, Israel and the United States have the highest total legal abortion rates, ranging from one abortion to more than five abortions per woman of childbearing age during the reproductive years. Among the developing countries for which reliable data are available, South Korea, China, Cuba and Singapore have rates of about 1-2 abortions per woman of fertile age. However, a number of other countries in Latin America and Asia, for which the data are deficient, probably have equally high rates.
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There were about 2.0--2.3 million unintended pregnancies in the United States each year during the early 1970s. Within this framework, the rapid rise in the number of abortions since 1973, to 1.3 million in 1977, is quite predictable.
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