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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

PubMed2005

A Doppler-derived index of combined left ventricular systolic and diastolic function is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in elderly men.

BACKGROUND: Few studies on echocardiographic and Doppler indices of cardiac function as predictors for cardiovascular mortality have been performed in the general population. The novel myocardial performance index (MPI, also denoted as Tei-Doppler index) has been suggested to reflect both left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function. METHODS: We investigated whether 10 different echocardiographic and Doppler indices of cardiac function predicted cardiovascular mortality by using a population-based cohort of 583 seventy-year-old men with a mean follow-up time of 6.8 years. RESULTS: In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis for a 1-SD increase including LV ejection fraction, E/A ratio, MPI, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors (previous myocardial infarction, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, and LV hypertrophy), both ejection fraction (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.59, 95% CI 0.38-0.90, P < .05) and MPI (HR = 2.92, 95% CI 1.71-4.97, P < .0001) were found to be independent predictors for cardiovascular mortality. After excluding subjects with coronary heart disease, only MPI remained a significant predictor (HR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.11-4.27, P < .03, for 1-SD increase), and neither ejection fraction, E/A ratio, nor any of the cardiovascular risk factors remained significant predictors. CONCLUSION: Myocardial performance index is a predictor for cardiovascular mortality, independent of other measurements of cardiac function and of traditional cardiovascular risk factors in elderly men free from coronary heart disease.

Aged↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of hot flushes in postmenopausal women who receive raloxifene therapy.

OBJECTIVE: In a previous report, we described the results of a randomized, controlled trial that evaluated the potential of raloxifene to induce or exacerbate hot flushes. Here, we provide additional analyses that were undertaken to identify potential predictors of hot flushes and to assess the clinical usefulness of various therapeutic strategies for the reduction of hot flushes in postmenopausal women who receive raloxifene therapy. STUDY DESIGN: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 487 unselected postmenopausal women were assigned randomly to receive treatment for 8 months with raloxifene, which was administered either at a dose of 60 mg/d every other day for 2 months followed by 60 mg/d (slow-dose escalation) or 60 mg/d throughout (raloxifene), or placebo. Data on the number, duration, intensity, and severity of hot flushes and awakenings because of night sweats were collected. Logistic regression models were used to examine the predictive value of various demographic and menopausal factors on the development or worsening of hot flushes. RESULTS: At baseline, 40.4% of all randomly assigned patients had hot flushes. The mean number of hot flushes (3-5 per week) was low. Fewer years postmenopause, surgical menopause, and previous estrogen or estrogen/progestin therapy were significant predictors of hot flushes at baseline but were not predictive of incident hot flushes during treatment with raloxifene. Of the women who received raloxifene therapy who had pre-existing hot flushes at baseline, 36% women had none at the end point. Early postmenopause and surgical menopause were significant predictors of a biologically relevant increase in hot flushes (>/=14 flushes/week). Early postmenopause, previous estrogen/progestin therapy, high body mass index, and greater duration of hot flushes at baseline were significant predictors of the need for symptomatic treatment. After 2 months of treatment, women in early postmenopause had significantly more hot flushes with raloxifene therapy than with slow-dose escalation ( P = .042), whereas there was no significant difference between raloxifene therapy and slow-dose escalation among women in later postmenopause. In the 50 patients who requested symptomatic treatment during the study, phytohormones or veralipride did not reduce the number of hot flushes markedly. CONCLUSION: A shorter time since menopause and surgical menopause are important predictors of hot flushes both before and during treatment with raloxifene. Previous estrogen/progestin therapy also increases the risk of hot flushes at baseline. For women in early postmenopause, slow-dose escalation of raloxifene therapy may be a suitable therapeutic strategy for the reduction of the risk of hot flushes.

Administration, Oral↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of blood pressure control in patients with diabetes and hypertension seen in primary care clinics.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) is not well controlled in the majority of patients with both diabetes and hypertension. This study was designed to identify predictors of BP control in patients with both diabetes and hypertension who are seen in primary care clinics. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted by identifying a cohort of patients diagnosed with diabetes before January 1, 2000 (inception) who met predefined criteria for hypertension at inception and who received primary care in the ensuing 3-year study period (January 1, 2000, to February 31, 2002). Using the mean of all BP values between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2002, subjects were divided into two groups: those with controlled BP and those with uncontrolled BP. The distribution of clinical predictors was compared between the two groups. Independent predictors were identified using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Predictors of poor BP control were as follows: 1) isolated systolic hypertension at inception (OR= 0.62, CI = 0.47 to 0.82); 2) uncontrolled BP at inception (OR = 0.71, CI = 0.55 to 0.93); 3) use of oral hypoglycemic drugs versus diet and exercise alone or insulin use (OR = 0.73, CI = 0.56 to 0.95); 4) use of three or more antihypertensive drugs (OR = 0.74, CI = 0.56 to 0.97); and 5) older age (OR = 0.98, CI = 0.97 to 0.99). Predictors of better control were 1) use of nitrates (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.26 to 2.64); 2) history of coronary heart disease (OR = 1.47, CI = 1.08 to 2.00); and 3) at least one annual visit to subspecialist physician (OR = 1.43, CI = 1.09 to 1.88). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with both diabetes and hypertension who are older, have isolated systolic hypertension, use oral hypoglycemic drugs, or use three or more antihypertensive drugs should be targeted for better BP control. The roles of nitrate medication and subspecialist physicians in achieving better BP control needs further study.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Are blood pressure predictors of cardiovascular disease mortality different for prehypertensives than for hypertensives?

BACKGROUND: The ability of diastolic, systolic, mean arterial, and pulse pressures to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) morality has not been assessed for persons with prehypertension (diastolic pressure 80 to 89 mm Hg or systolic pressure 120 to 139 mm Hg). METHODS: Cox's regression analyses were conducted using 4849 subjects aged 33 to 87 years from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. A correction was made for the regression-dilution bias. RESULTS: There were 327 cardiovascular disease and 258 coronary heart-disease deaths during an average follow-up of 8.6 years. For nonelderly prehypertensives, systolic blood pressure (BP) was a stronger predictor than diastolic BP. The multivariate single predictor hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for CVD mortality were 1.43 (0.65-3.14) and 2.11 (1.28-3.49), for a 10 mm Hg increment diastolic and systolic BP, respectively. For elderly prehypertensives, it was reversed. The equivalent results were 1.53 (1.10-2.13) and 1.25 (0.89-1.60), respectively. For nonelderly hypertensives, diastolic BP was a stronger predictor than systolic BP, and for elderly hypertensives it was reversed. Diastolic and systolic BP provided as much as or more predictive information than pulse and mean arterial pressure in all analyses. CONCLUSIONS: For nonelderly prehypertensives, systolic BP was the strongest predictor, whereas for hypertensives the strongest predictor was diastolic BP. For elderly subjects this pattern was reversed.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Presence and progression of abdominal obesity are predictors of future high blood pressure and hypertension.

BACKGROUND: General obesity and its progression are major predictors of future hypertension. It has not been established whether abdominal obesity contributes to the development of hypertension. METHODS: A community-based study population of 2377 normotensive nondiabetic Chinese adults aged >or=30 years were re-examined 10 years after their baseline examination. RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 25.9%. The standardized parameters for the prediction of follow-up systolic blood pressure (BP) for baseline body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, baseline homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), change in HOMA-IR, baseline waist circumference (WC), and change in WC were 0.19 (P < .001), 0.09 (P < .001), 0.11 (P < .001), 0.08 (P < .001), 0.16 (P < .001), and 0.07 (P < .001), respectively, when age, sex, and baseline systolic BP were accounted for. By stepwise linear regression analysis, age, baseline systolic BP, baseline BMI, change in BMI, baseline WC, and change in WC were significant predictors of the follow-up systolic BP. Both baseline WC and change in WC were significant predictors of follow-up systolic BP or incident hypertension when age, sex, baseline systolic BP, BMI, and change in BMI were accounted for. In a subgroup of younger adults with normal BMI and BP<130/85 mm Hg, baseline systolic BP, change in HOMA-IR, baseline WC, and change in WC were significantly independent predictors of follow-up systolic BP. CONCLUSION: Abdominal obesity and its progression are predictors of future BP and hypertension incidence, independent of the effects of general obesity.

Abdominal Fat↗

PubMed2006

Predictors for mortality after lower-extremity amputations in geriatric patients.

BACKGROUND: The identification of independent predictors for operative and long-term mortality after lower-extremity amputations in the geriatric population would allow targeted management for high-risk patients and appropriate allocation of resources. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors for operative mortality. Life tables and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated. Independent predictors for long-term mortality were tested by log-rank test followed by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Female gender, congestive heart failure, and high-level amputation were identified as independent predictors for operative mortality (odds ratios 4.14, 4.59, and 4.77, respectively). The logistic regression model showed good calibration and discriminative power. Female gender, high-level amputation, cerebrovascular accident, congestive heart failure, noncommunity ambulation, and institutionalization before amputation were associated with an increased risk for long-term mortality. However, only high-level amputation, congestive heart failure, and noncommunity ambulation remained as independent risk factors after Cox regression analysis (relative risks 1.68, 2.08, and 2.10, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Extra care should be given to patients identified with independent predictors for operative and long-term mortality.

Aged↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of health-related quality of life after coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the determinants of health-related quality of life after coronary artery bypass surgery. We determined the predictors of overall physical and mental health status 6 months after the operation. METHODS: We evaluated 1,973 patients enrolled in a multicenter Veterans Affairs prospective cohort study who completed preoperative and 6-month postoperative Short Form-36 (SF-36) health status surveys. Multiple linear regression was used to identify the significant independent predictors of 6-month physical and mental component summary scores from the SF-36. RESULTS: In multivariable analyses adjusting for baseline health status, significant predictors of postoperative physical health status were a history of neurologic disease, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, current smoking, forced expiratory volume, left ventricular ejection fraction, and serum creatinine. Significant predictors of postoperative mental health status were a history of psychiatric disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, current smoking, age, and New York Heart Association functional class. CONCLUSIONS: These predictors of health-related quality of life after coronary artery bypass surgery may be useful for preoperative risk assessment and counseling of patients with regard to anticipated health status outcomes. Factors such as current smoking and psychiatric disease may be targets for interventions to improve health-related quality of life outcomes.

Coronary Artery Bypass↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predictors of aggression on the psychiatric inpatient service.

Patients with severe mental illness are at increased risk to commit acts of aggression in the inpatient hospital setting. Aggressive behaviors have severe negative consequences for the patient, victims, clinical staff, and the therapeutic community as a whole. While risk factors of community and inpatient aggression overlap, many predictive factors diverge between the two settings. For example, while medication noncompliance has been a robust predictor of community aggression, this factor has little predictive value for inpatient settings where patients' pharmacotherapy is closely monitored. Relatively fewer investigators have examined a wide range of predictive factors associated with aggressive acts committed on the psychiatry inpatient service, often with conflicting results. The present study examined demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive performance predictors of self, other, object, and verbal aggressiveness in 118 acute inpatients. Results revealed that the arrival status at the hospital (voluntary vs involuntary), female gender, and substance abuse diagnosis were predictors of verbal aggression and aggression against others. Impaired memory functioning also predicted object aggression. Fewer symptoms, combined with higher cognition functioning, however, were significant predictors of self-aggressive acts committed on the inpatient service. The need for relating predictors of specific types of aggressiveness in schizophrenia is discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of perinatal survival in a cohort of pregnancies with severe oligohydramnios due to premature rupture of membranes at <26 weeks managed with serial amnioinfusions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether successful amnioinfusion is an independent predictor of perinatal survival in a cohort of cases with extreme and persistent oligohydramnios due to preterm premature rupture of membranes (pPROM) who reached viability and were managed with serial amnioinfusions. STUDY DESIGN: We included all consecutive singleton pregnancies with pPROM at <26 weeks and oligohydramnios lasting >4 days between 1/1991 and 12/2001 and who consented to undergo amnioinfusion (n=77). Women received serial transabdominal amnioinfusions in an attempt to maintain a pocket of fluid >2 cm. The procedure was deemed successful if the median deepest pocket of fluid during the latency period was >2 cm. Excluded were miscarriages (n=10), fetal deaths before viability (24 weeks) (n=15), and cases that did not develop oligohydramnios (n=17). Prenatal predictors of outcome were compared between cases who survived the perinatal period and those who did not using Wilcoxon rank-sum test, Fisher's exact test and stepwise logistic regression analysis, with a two-tailed P<0.05 considered significant. RESULTS: Of the 35 patients fulfilling the study criteria, 20 (57%) survived the perinatal period. Perinatal survivors had similar gestational age at pPROM (P=0.68) and at first amnioinfusion (P=0.53) as those who died in the perinatal period, but longer latency (P=0.013). Consequently, median gestational age at delivery [29.2 (25.4-35.3) weeks versus 26.1 (24.0-34.0) weeks, P<0.001] and median birth weight [1220 (650-2240) g versus 863 (520-2200) g, P=0.001] were significantly greater among survivors than among those who died. Significant predictors of survival at univariate analysis were entered into a stepwise logistic regression analysis in the chronological order in which they normally occur. The analysis demonstrated that successful amnioinfusion (OR=6.9, 95% CI 1.2-40.4) and administration of steroids (OR=14.6, 95% CI 1.5-144.1) were independent and significant predictors of perinatal survival. CONCLUSION: In a cohort of women with pPROM at <26 weeks and severe oligohydramnios managed with serial amnioinfusions, successful procedures and prenatal administration of corticosteroids are the only independent predictors of perinatal survival.

Adrenal Cortex Hormones↗

PubMed2004

Reduced coronary flow reserve in the coronary sinus is a predictor of hemodynamically significant stenoses of the left coronary artery territory.

AIM AND METHODS: The role of transesophageal Doppler assessment of coronary flow reserve (CFR) in the coronary sinus (CS) in the diagnostics of significant left coronary artery (LCA) stenoses was studied in 65 CAD patients with angiographically proven >50% stenotic atherosclerosis of the LCA territory (38--with isolated left anterior descending artery (LAD) or left circumflex artery (Cx) stenosis; 27--with both LAD and Cx stenoses) and 31 healthy volunteers (all men). Dipyridamole was used as a stress agent. The antegrade phase of coronary flow in the CS moving into the right atrium was analysed. CFR in the CS was calculated in two ways: (1) as ratio of hyperemic to baseline peak antegrade flow velocity (CFRp); (2) as ratio of hyperemic to baseline volumetric blood flow velocity (CFRv). The level of CFR <2.0 in both ways of calculation was diagnosed as reduced. RESULTS: CAD patients compared with healthy volunteers had significantly lower CFRp (1.51+/-0.44 and 2.57+/-0.79; p<0.001) and CFRv (2.21+/-1.18 and 5.43+/-2.83; p < 0.001) in the CS. CFRp <2.0 in the CS was a predictor of significant stenoses of the LCA with sensitivity of 89% and specificity of 76%, while CFRv <2.0 was a predictor of significant stenoses of the LCA with sensitivity of 49% and specificity of 97%. CFRp <2.0 in the CS was registered in 96% of CAD patients with two-vessel lesion and in 84% of CAD patients with one-vessel lesion, while CFRv <2.0 in the CS was revealed in 85% of CAD patients with two-vessel lesion and only in 26% of CAD patients with one-vessel lesion. Sensitivity and specificity of CFRv <2.0 in the CS in the diagnostics of significant two-vessel lesion of the LCA were 85% and 84%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Thus, the reduced CFR in the CS is a sensitive and specific predictor of LCA stenoses. A decrease of both CFRp <2 and CFRv <2.0 in the CS is a predictor of significant two-vessel lesion of the LCA, while a decrease of only CFRp <2.0 in the CS is a predictor of significant one-vessel lesion of the LCA.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Clinical predictors of atrial defibrillation thresholds with a dual-coil, active pectoral lead system.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to identify clinical predictors of atrial defibrillation thresholds (DFTs) with standard implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) leads. BACKGROUND: Atrial defibrillation can be achieved with active pectoral, dual-coil transvenous ICD lead systems. If clinical predictors of atrial defibrillation efficacy with these lead systems were identified, they could be used to predict which patients may require more complex lead systems for atrial defibrillation, such as a coronary sinus electrode. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 135 consecutive patients undergoing initial ICD implant for standard indications. The lead system evaluated was a transvenous defibrillation lead with coils in the superior vena cava (SVC) and right ventricular apex (RV), and a left pectoral pulse generator emulator (CAN). The shocking pathway was RV-->SVC+CAN. Atrial DFT was measured using a step-up protocol. Clinical and echocardiographic parameters were evaluated as predictors of atrial DFT and multiple linear regression was performed. RESULTS: Mean atrial DFT was 4.6 +/- 3.8 J. Atrial DFT was < or =3 J in 70 patients (52%) and < or = 10 J in 97% of patients. The highest atrial DFT was 20 J (one patient). Left atrial size (r = 0.21, P = .01) and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (r = 0.19, P = .02) were independent predictors of atrial DFT. However, these two predictors accounted for only 6% of the variability in atrial DFT. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical parameters are of limited use in predicting atrial DFT with a dual-coil, active pectoral ICD lead system. Because the RV--> SVC + CAN shocking pathway provides reliable atrial and ventricular defibrillation, this configuration should be preferred for combined atrial and ventricular ICDs.

Atrial Fibrillation↗

PubMed2006

Race, gender, and clinical risk index for babies (CRIB) score as predictors of severe retinopathy of prematurity.

PURPOSE: To determine whether race, gender, and the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) illness severity score are predictors of threshold or severe prethreshold retinopathy of prematurity warranting surgery (ROP warranting surgery) and whether racial and gender differences in ROP are correlated with racial and gender differences in illness severity. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of premature infants 401-1250 g at birth that were admitted to the University Hospital of Cincinnati (January 1998 to May 2003). Birth weight, gestational age, multiple birth, birth in the study hospital or elsewhere, race, gender, CRIB score, and eye findings were abstracted. The outcome variable was ROP warranting surgery. RESULTS: Of 299 patients (596 eyes) with adequate eye and CRIB data, 35 patients (11.7%) [66 eyes; 11.1%] developed ROP warranting surgery. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that higher CRIB score (P < 0.0001; odds ratio [OR] 1.21), male gender (P < 0.005; OR: 2.68), nonblack race (P < 0.0005; OR: 4.32), lower gestational age, and multiple birth are predictive factors for ROP warranting surgery. Because birth weight and gestational age comprise 2 of the 6 components of the CRIB score, a CRIB subscore (CRIBSUB) consisting of the remaining 4 components was tested and remained a significant predictor (P < 0.00001). Birth weight was a significant predictor when CRIBSUB was in the model but not when the CRIB score was used. The CRIB score was a predictor of neonatal mortality, but race and gender did not predict the CRIB score or neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Nonblack race, male gender, and higher CRIB illness severity scores are predictors of ROP warranting surgery. In our population, there were no racial or gender differences in neonatal mortality or CRIB scores to explain the racial and gender differences in severity of ROP.

Birth Weight↗

PubMed2006

Is plasma oxidized low-density lipoprotein, measured with the widely used antibody 4E6, an independent predictor of coronary heart disease among U.S. men and women?

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to examine whether circulating oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL) is a predictor of coronary heart disease (CHD) independent of lipid markers and to compare oxLDL, apolipoprotein B100 (apoB), and total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio as predictors of CHD. BACKGROUND: Measurement of circulating oxLDL with antibody 4E6, has been widely used in many studies; however, few large prospective studies have examined whether this marker is a predictor of CHD independent of lipids and compared oxLDL with other important lipid predictors. METHODS: After 6 years of follow-up among 18,140 men from the HPFS (Health Professionals Follow-up Study) and 8 years among 32,826 women from the Nurses' Health Study who provided blood samples at baseline, we identified incident nonfatal myocardial infarction or fatal CHD in 266 men and 235 women. Each case was matched with two control subjects by age, smoking, and time of blood draw. The oxLDL was measured via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with antibody 4E6 against oxidized apoB. RESULTS: Among both men and women, oxLDL was significantly related to risk of CHD in multivariate analysis before adjustment for any lipid markers. However, when oxLDL, LDL cholesterol, HDL-C, and triglycerides were mutually adjusted, oxLDL was no longer predictive. When oxLDL and apoB were mutually adjusted, only apoB was predictive of CHD. Similar results were found when oxLDL and TC/HDL-C ratio were mutually adjusted. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that circulating oxLDL, measured with antibody 4E6, is not an independent overall predictor of CHD after adjustment of lipid markers and is less predictive in development of CHD than apoB and TC/HDL-C ratio.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Bronchodilation and bronchoconstriction: predictors of future lung function in childhood asthma.

BACKGROUND: Persistently low levels of lung function are associated with subsequent symptoms in patients with asthma as children. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that objective measures of baseline pulmonary function would be independently associated with future lung function in the Childhood Asthma Management Program and that these associations might vary with treatment. METHODS: We evaluated the association of FEV1, airway responsiveness, and bronchodilator response at randomization as predictors of longitudinal growth in FEV1 at the 48-month follow-up visit in the 1041 Childhood Asthma Management Program participants. RESULTS: Baseline levels of airway responsiveness and bronchodilator response were significantly associated with baseline level of lung function. In multivariate models, higher bronchodilator response (beta = 0.22; P < .0001), log PC20 (beta = 1.82; P < .0001), and FEV1 (beta = 0.58; P < .0001) at randomization were each associated with higher levels of prebronchodilator FEV1, as a percent of predicted, after 4 years. Similar associations were noted for prebronchodilator forced vital capacity and FEV1/forced vital capacity ratio. Baseline bronchodilator response was a particularly powerful predictor of lung function improvements while on inhaled corticosteroids, whereas airway responsiveness was a better predictor in subjects not randomized to any controller medications. CONCLUSION: We conclude that baseline bronchodilator response, airway responsiveness, and level of FEV1 are independent predictors of subsequent level of FEV1 in childhood asthma and may have treatment-specific prognostic significance for persistence of symptoms into early adulthood. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: In asthma, bronchodilator and bronchoconstrictor responses are independent predictors of future lung function and should not be used interchangeably; bronchodilator response may indicate good response to inhaled corticosteroids.

Asthma↗

PubMed2026

Predictors of aortic stenosis in homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia: A study from the Canadian HoFH registry.

BACKGROUND: Homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) is a rare genetic disease of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) metabolism. This disease is associated with a major risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and aortic stenosis (AS). The predictors of AS in this population are not well established. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the univariable and multivariable predictors of AS in patients from the Canadian HoFH registry. METHODS: Individuals from the Canadian HoFH registry were included in this retrospective longitudinal study. Clinical data were obtained from the treating physicians using a standardized questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the predictors of AS. The observed lifetime risk of AS was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Among the 67 patients with HoFH, 25 (37%) developed AS. The mean age at baseline was 22 ± 17 years and women represented 57% of the cohort. The independent predictors of AS were the baseline LDL-C (hazard ratio [HR] 1.22 [1.09-1.35], P = .0003) as well as the presence of at least 1 null genetic variant (HR 3.73 [1.41-9.86], P = .008). Having a baseline LDL-C value above 13 mmol/L was associated with an observed lifelong risk of developing AS approaching 100% within this cohort, whereas having a value below this threshold was associated with a risk of 27% (P = .0002). CONCLUSION: This is the first systematic evaluation within a national HoFH registry to report the univariable and multivariable predictors of AS in patients with HoFH. An external validation of our results in an international cohort of HoFH is warranted.

Aortic stenosis↗

PubMed2006

Using the outcome for imputation of missing predictor values was preferred.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Epidemiologic studies commonly estimate associations between predictors (risk factors) and outcome. Most software automatically exclude subjects with missing values. This commonly causes bias because missing values seldom occur completely at random (MCAR) but rather selectively based on other (observed) variables, missing at random (MAR). Multiple imputation (MI) of missing predictor values using all observed information including outcome is advocated to deal with selective missing values. This seems a self-fulfilling prophecy. METHODS: We tested this hypothesis using data from a study on diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. We selected five predictors of pulmonary embolism without missing values. Their regression coefficients and standard errors (SEs) estimated from the original sample were considered as "true" values. We assigned missing values to these predictors--both MCAR and MAR--and repeated this 1,000 times using simulations. Per simulation we multiple imputed the missing values without and with the outcome, and compared the regression coefficients and SEs to the truth. RESULTS: Regression coefficients based on MI including outcome were close to the truth. MI without outcome yielded very biased--underestimated--coefficients. SEs and coverage of the 90% confidence intervals were not different between MI with and without outcome. Results were the same for MCAR and MAR. CONCLUSION: For all types of missing values, imputation of missing predictor values using the outcome is preferred over imputation without outcome and is no self-fulfilling prophecy.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of fluid resuscitation in pediatric trauma patients.

Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) is accepted as the standard for the first hours of trauma care. However, ATLS is designed primarily for adults. In children, vascular access can be difficult and time-consuming. Due to the differences in the epidemiology of children suffering traumatic injury, they may not require aggressive fluid resuscitation. The objective of the study was to establish predictors of fluid resuscitation, and to determine whether all pediatric Level I Trauma victims require two intravenous catheters. Medical charts of all patients aged < 18 years meeting Level I Trauma criteria who presented to Childrens Hospital Los Angeles (CHLA) between January 1 and December 31, 1999 were retrospectively reviewed. There were 152 patients reviewed with a median age of 6 years (range 4 months to 17 years); 64% were boys. The mechanism of injury was motor vehicle crash 49%, fall 37%, crush 8%, gunshot 5%, and knife 1%. Injuries included closed head 88%, penetrating abdomen/chest 6%, and other 6%. Vital signs over time showed no change in 59%, got better in 34%, and got worse in 7%. Fluid resuscitation included no bolus in 70%, 1 bolus in 20%, 2 boluses in 7%, > 2 boluses in 3%. The ICU admitted 23%, 12% were intubated, survival was 95%, and 59% received a prehospital i.v. The i.v. #1 site: antecubital 51%, hand 41%, foot 5%, femoral 1%. The i.v. #2 site: hand 30%, antecubital 20%, foot 2%, none 48%. T test showed no statistically significant differences in fluid resuscitation or second i.v. placement based on the mechanism of injury. T test for unequal variances showed a statistically significant difference in means with p < 0.001 for second i.v. placement as compared with only i.v. fluid amount, age, and Injury Severity Score (ISS). Revised Trauma Score was the only predictor of worsening of vital signs (logistic regression [LR], p < 0.001). Age was the only predictor of second i.v. placement (LR, p < 0.03). ISS was the only predictor of a bolus being given (LR, p < 0.01). In our study, blunt trauma occurred in 90% of children, with 10% requiring > 1 fluid bolus. ISS was the only predictor of the need for fluid resuscitation and is not likely to be helpful in the clinical setting. In our population, nearly 50% had no second i.v. This preliminary review of the nature of pediatric trauma suggests that ATLS guidelines may not always be appropriate for the management of pediatric trauma.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

The nordic back pain subpopulation program: demographic and clinical predictors for outcome in patients receiving chiropractic treatment for persistent low back pain.

OBJECTIVE: To identify demographic and clinic-related predictors for successful outcome in patients with persistent low-back pain who received chiropractic treatment. DESIGN: Prospective uncontrolled multicenter study with internal control groups. SUBJECTS: Each of 115 Norwegian chiropractors, out of 205 invited, were asked to recruit 10 consecutive patients who had low-back pain for at least 2 weeks at the time of consultation and a minimum of 30 days altogether within the preceding year. In all, 875 patients were included at baseline. The response rates at the fourth visit and at 3 and 12 months were 799, 598, and 512, respectively. METHODS: Baseline data were obtained through questionnaires administered to chiropractic patients and to their treating chiropractors; clinical information was obtained through questionnaires at the fourth visit from patients and chiropractors. Outcome was obtained from patients at the fourth visit. Mail surveys of patients were conducted after 3 and 12 months, and additional information was obtained from chiropractors at 12 months in relation to treatment history. POTENTIAL PREDICTORS: Demography and information on past and present history, clinical findings, and prognosis. OUTCOME VARIABLE: Number of low-back pain"free patients (defined as those with a maximum pain score of 1/10 and a maximum Oswestry score of 15/100). DATA ANALYSIS: Positive predictive values and relative risks were calculated for each categorized predictor variable singly and in combination in relation to being low-back pain free at the 3 follow-up surveys. RESULTS: Treatment outcome at the fourth visit was best predicted by a model containing the following 5 variables: sex, social benefit, severity of pain, duration of continuous pain at first consultation, and additional neck pain (odds ratios between 2.2 and 4.3). A similar profile was found at 3 months, but 2 different variables (relating to disability) were the final variables in relation to the 12-month status. These final models were best at predicting absence of treatment success. Being low-back pain free at the fourth visit was a strong predictor for being low-back pain free both at 3 months and 12 months, with relative risks of 3.0 (2.2-4.8) and 3.1 (1.5-6.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients with persistent low-back pain, it is possible to exclude from treatment those who are unlikely to become low-back pain free after chiropractic care and to do this before they have been examined clinically. Early recovery is a strong predictor for outcome up to 1 year later.

Adolescent↗