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Results for “causality”

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PubMed1999

Seeing it happen and knowing how it works: how children understand the relation between perceptual causality and underlying mechanism.

Two experiments studied how 5- to 10-year-olds integrate perceptual causality with their knowledge of the underlying causal mechanism. Children learned about 2 devices by which a ball dropped into one end of a box made a bell ring at the other end, either immediately (contiguous mechanism) or after a delay (noncontiguous mechanism). When 1 ball was dropped first and a 2nd ball was dropped after a delay, and then the bell rang immediately, 5- and 7-year-olds chose the contiguous cause regardless of the mechanism inside. This was not due to lack of specific knowledge or problems with salient distractors. The results suggest a link between temporal contiguity and causality in children's understanding. Children also considered causal mechanism, in agreement with previous research, but they may not understand that mechanism is superordinate to perceptual cues for causality.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Assessing interactive causal influence.

The discovery of conjunctive causes--factors that act in concert to produce or prevent an effect--has been explained by purely covariational theories. Such theories assume that concomitant variations in observable events directly license causal inferences, without postulating the existence of unobservable causal relations. This article discusses problems with these theories, proposes a causal-power theory that overcomes the problems, and reports empirical evidence favoring the new theory. Unlike earlier models, the new theory derives (a). the conditions under which covariation implies conjunctive causation and (b). functions relating observable events to unobservable conjunctive causal strength. This psychological theory, which concerns simple cases involving 2 binary candidate causes and a binary effect, raises questions about normative statistics for testing causal hypotheses regarding categorical data resulting from discrete variables.

Humans↗

PubMed2003

Making causal judgments from the proportion of confirming instances: the pCI rule.

It is proposed that causal judgments about contingency information are derived from the proportion of confirmatory instances (pCI) that are evaluated as confirmatory for the causal candidate. In 6 experiments, pCI values were manipulated independently of objective contingencies assessed by the deltaP rule. Significant effects of the pCI manipulations were found in all cases, but causal judgments did not vary significantly with objective contingencies when pCI was held constant. The experiments used a variety of stimulus presentation procedures and different dependent measures. The power PC theory, a weighted version of the deltaP rule, the Rescorla-Wagner associative learning model (R. A. Rescorla & A. R Wagner, 1972), and the deltaD rule, which is the frequency-based version of the pCI rule, were unable to account for the significant effects of the pCI manipulations. These results are consistent with a general explanatory approach to causal judgment involving the evaluation of evidence and updating of beliefs with regard to causal hypotheses.

Decision Making↗

PubMed2000

Strategy selection in causal reasoning: when beliefs and covariation collide.

The present study investigated how people combine covariation information (Cheng & Novick, 1990, 1992) with pre-existing beliefs (White, 1989) when evaluating causal hypotheses. Three experiments, using both within- and between-subjects designs, found that the use of covariation information and beliefs interacted, such that the effects of covariation were larger when people assessed hypotheses about believable than about unbelievable causal candidates. In Experiment 2, this interaction was observed when participants made judgments in stages (e.g., first evaluating covariation information about a causal candidate and then evaluating the believability of a candidate), as well as when the information was presented simultaneously. Experiment 3 demonstrated that this pattern was also reflected in participants' metacognitive judgments: Participants indicated that they weighed covariation information more heavily for believable than unbelievable candidates. Finally, Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated the presence of individual differences in the use of covariation- and belief-based cues. That is, individuals who tended to base their causality judgments primarily on belief were less likely to make use of covariation information and vice versa. The findings were most consistent with White's (1989) causal power theory, which suggests that covariation information is more likely to be considered relevant to believable than unbelievable causes.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Beta oscillations in a large-scale sensorimotor cortical network: directional influences revealed by Granger causality.

Previous studies have shown that synchronized beta frequency (14-30 Hz) oscillations in the primary motor cortex are involved in maintaining steady contractions of contralateral arm and hand muscles. However, little is known about the role of postcentral cortical areas in motor maintenance and their patterns of interaction with motor cortex. We investigated the functional relations of beta-synchronized neuronal assemblies in pre- and postcentral areas of two monkeys as they pressed a hand lever during the wait period of a visual discrimination task. By using power and coherence spectral analysis, we identified a beta-synchronized large-scale network linking pre- and postcentral areas. We then used Granger causality spectra to measure directional influences among recording sites. In both monkeys, strong Granger causal influences were observed from primary somatosensory cortex to both motor cortex and inferior posterior parietal cortex, with the latter area also exerting Granger causal influences on motor cortex. Granger causal influences from motor cortex to postcentral sites, however, were weak in one monkey and not observed in the other. These results are the first, to our knowledge, to demonstrate in awake monkeys that synchronized beta oscillations bind multiple sensorimotor areas into a large-scale network during motor maintenance behavior and carry Granger causal influences from primary somatosensory and inferior posterior parietal cortices to motor cortex.

Animals↗

PubMed1992

Evidence for a distinction between judged and perceived causality.

Two experiments investigated Michotte's launch event, in which successive motion of two objects appears to evoke an immediate perception that the first motion caused the second, as in a collision. Launching was embedded in event sequences where a third event (a colour change of the second object) was established as a competing predictor of the second motion, in an attempt to see whether subjects' learning of alternative predictive relationships would influence their causal impressions of launch events. In Experiment 1 subjects saw launch events in which temporal contiguity at the point of impact was varied so that an impact itself did not reliably predict when the second object would move. Half of these scenes, however, contained a colour change of the second object which did reliably predict when it would move. In accordance with Michotte's theory, subjects' ratings of the degree of perceived causality were not affected by the colour change. In Experiment 2 subjects saw scenes that contained launch events with or without temporal contiguity and a colour change. These were interspersed with events in which a colour change alone did or did not precede the second motion. Thus, movement of the second object was either contingent on or independent of the impact. Subjects repeatedly (a) rated perceived causality in single launch events and (b) judged the necessity of collisions for movement in the overall set of events. These responses dissociated, in that ratings of type (a) showed only a substantial contiguity effect, whereas judgements of type (b) showed both a contingency and a much smaller contiguity effect. These results appear to support a distinction between judged and perceived causality and are discussed with respect to Michotte's theory of direct causal perception.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

The 28th Bartlett Memorial Lecture. Causal learning: an associative analysis.

The concordance between performance and judgements of the causal effectiveness of an instrumental action suggests that such actions are mediated by causal knowledge. Although causal learning exhibits many associative phenomena--blocking, inhibitory or preventative learning, and super-learning--judgements of the causal status of a cue can be changed retrospectively as a result of learning episodes that do not directly involve the cue. In order to explain retrospective revaluation, a modified associative theory is described in which the learning processes for retrieved cue representations are the opposite to those for presented cues, and this theory is evaluated by studies of the role of within-compound associations in retrospective revaluation and blocking. However, this modified theory only applies when the within-compound association represents a contiguous rather than a causal cue relationship.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Inferring causal relationships among intermediate phenotypes and biomarkers: a case study of rheumatoid arthritis.

MOTIVATION: Genetic association analysis is based on statistical correlations which do not assign any cause-to-effect arrows between the two correlated variables. Normally, such assignment of cause and effect label is not necessary in genetic analysis since genes are always the cause and phenotypes are always the effect. However, among intermediate phenotypes and biomarkers, assigning cause and effect becomes meaningful, and causal inference can be useful. RESULTS: We show that causal inference is possible by an example in a study of rheumatoid arthritis. With the help of genotypic information, the shared epitope, the causal relationship between two biomarkers related to the disease, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) and rheumatoid factor (RF) has been established. We emphasize the fact that third variable must be a genotype to be able to resolve potential ambiguities in causal inference. Two non-trivial conclusions have been reached by the causal inference: (1) anti-CCP is a cause of RF and (2) it is unlikely that a third confounding factor contributes to both anti-CCP and RF.

Arthritis, Rheumatoid↗

PubMed2006

An integrative approach for causal gene identification and gene regulatory pathway inference.

MOTIVATION: Gene expression variation can often be linked to certain chromosomal regions and are tightly associated with phenotypic variation such as disease conditions. Inferring the causal genes for the expression variation is of great importance but rather challenging as the linked region generally contains multiple genes. Even when a single candidate gene is proposed, the underlying biological mechanism by which the regulation is enforced remains unknown. Novel approaches are needed to both infer the causal genes and generate hypothesis on the underlying regulatory mechanisms. RESULTS: We propose a new approach which aims at achieving the above objectives by integrating genotype information, gene expression, protein-protein interaction, protein phosphorylation, and transcription factor (TF)-DNA binding information. A network based stochastic algorithm is designed to infer the causal genes and identify the underlying regulatory pathways. We first quantitatively verified our method by a test using data generated by yeast knock-out experiments. Over 40% of inferred causal genes are correct, which is significantly better than 10% by random guess. We then applied our method to a recent genome-wide expression variation study in yeast. We show that our method can correctly identify the causal genes and effectively output experimentally verified pathways. New potential gene regulatory pathways are generated and presented as a global network. AVAILABILITY: Source code is available upon request.

Chromosome Mapping↗

PubMed2006

Causality and pathway search in microarray time series experiment.

MOTIVATION: Interaction among time series can be explored in many ways. All the approach has the usual problem of low power and high dimensional model. Here we attempted to build a causality network among a set of time series. The causality has been established by Granger causality, and then constructing the pathway has been implemented by finding the Minimal Spanning Tree within each connected component of the inferred network. False discovery rate measurement has been used to identify the most significant causalities. RESULTS: Simulation shows good convergence and accuracy of the algorithm. Robustness of the procedure has been demonstrated by applying the algorithm in a non-stationary time series setup. Application of the algorithm in a real dataset identified many causalities, with some overlap with previously known ones. Assembled network of the genes reveals features of the network that are common wisdom about naturally occurring networks.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Instruments for causal inference: an epidemiologist's dream?

The use of instrumental variable (IV) methods is attractive because, even in the presence of unmeasured confounding, such methods may consistently estimate the average causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, for this consistent estimation to be achieved, several strong conditions must hold. We review the definition of an instrumental variable, describe the conditions required to obtain consistent estimates of causal effects, and explore their implications in the context of a recent application of the instrumental variables approach. We also present (1) a description of the connection between 4 causal models-counterfactuals, causal directed acyclic graphs, nonparametric structural equation models, and linear structural equation models-that have been used to describe instrumental variables methods; (2) a unified presentation of IV methods for the average causal effect in the study population through structural mean models; and (3) a discussion and new extensions of instrumental variables methods based on assumptions of monotonicity.

Bias↗

PubMed2026

Causal relationships between psoriasis and coronary artery disease: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

Previous studies have revealed a potential association between psoriasis and coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the causal relationship between the 2 remains unclear. This study aims to assess the causal link between psoriasis and CAD, which encompasses coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, and angina pectoris. After obtaining genome-wide association studies data on psoriasis and CAD, we selected appropriate single nucleotide polymorphisms for Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. The inverse-variance weighted method was used as the main analytical method. The inverse-variance weighted method indicated that psoriasis was associated with a higher risk of CAD (odds ratio = 11.538, 95% confidence interval = 4.498-29.595, P < .001), and coronary heart disease (odds ratio = 1.080, 95% confidence interval = 1.031-1.132, P = .001). Reverse MR analyses did not show causal effects of CAD on psoriasis. This study shows a significant causal association between psoriasis and incidence of CAD. However, there is no reverse causal association between CAD and psoriasis.

Psoriasis↗

PubMed2026

The causal effect of juvenile idiopathic arthritis on IgA nephropathy: A Mendelian randomization study.

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) has been documented in patients with various comorbidities. Previous observational studies showed an association between juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and IgAN. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is a causal effect of JIA on the risk of IgAN using a 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. A 2-sample MR analysis was conducted to elucidate the potential causal relationship between JIA and IgAN. Summary-level data from genome-wide association studies in the European population were utilized, including IgAN (5556 cases and 21,178 controls) and JIA (3305 cases and 9196 controls). The inverse variance weighted method showed significant evidence of a positive causal relationship between genetically predicted JIA and IgAN. For each standard deviation increase in genetically predicted JIA, the risk of IgAN was found to be increased by 22% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, P = 3.03 × 10-4). Similar associations were observed with the weighted median (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.05-1.29) and weighted mode methods (OR: 1.16 95% CI: 1.02-1.33), but not with the simple median (OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.99-1.50) and MR Egger method (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.93-1.57). Reverse MR analysis found no inverse causal relationship between these 2 diseases. This study provides genetic evidence supporting a causal link between JIA and an increased risk of IgAN. In JIA patients, periodic evaluation of kidney function and proteinuria is warranted.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

The role of ferroptosis in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Causal inference and mediation by immune phenotypes.

This study employed a bidirectional 2-step, two-sample Mendelian randomization approach to investigate the causal relationships between ferroptosis-related genes and juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and to explore the mediating role of immune cells. Ferroptosis genes were identified from the deCODE database and matched with protein quantitative trait locus data as exposures to evaluate their causal effects on JIA, while immune cell traits were similarly assessed. For genes showing positive Mendelian randomization results, further analyses were conducted to determine whether immune cells mediated the effects on JIA, with mediation analysis performed only in the presence of causal associations. Data were sourced from the GWAS, FerrDb, and other public repositories. Nine ferroptosis-related genes were found to have causal links with JIA: HSPB1, DECR1, LIFR, and CTSB increased JIA risk, whereas PIEZO1, DPP4, BID, and others were protective. Forty immune cell traits were also causally associated with JIA. Mediation analysis revealed that several immune cells, including CD127- CD8+ T cells, partially mediated the genetic effects, with mediation proportions reaching up to 18.6%. Collectively, these results point to a ferroptosis-immune-JIA axis, suggesting that ferroptosis-related genes contribute to JIA pathogenesis through immune cell mediation and offering new mechanistic insights and potential therapeutic targets.

Arthritis, Juvenile↗

PubMed2026

Investigating the causal effects of physical activity and sedentary behavior on hernia risk: A two-sample Mendelian randomization approach.

The global prevalence of hernia is increasing, particularly due to the aging population. Although physical activity and sedentary behavior are known to influence various health outcomes, their specific roles in hernia development remain inadequately investigated. This study aimed to systematically assess the causal relationships between physical activity, sedentary behavior, and the risk of hernia development using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. We used genome-wide association study data from the UK Biobank and FinnGen Biobank to explore the causal effects of sedentary behavior on hernia risk via 5 distinct MR approaches. To ensure the reliability of our risk models, we performed sensitivity analyses, including Cochran's Q test, MR-Egger intercept analysis, leave-one-out analysis, and funnel plots. Furthermore, we employed multivariable MR analysis to determine the independent causal effects of both physical activity and sedentary behavior. Our findings indicate that moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was significantly associated with an increased risk of inguinal hernia, with an odds ratio of 1.844 (95% confidence interval, 1.181-2.879; P = .007). Associations between sedentary behavior and diaphragmatic or umbilical hernia were inconsistent across methods and were sensitive to pleiotropy; thus, no robust causal relationship was established. Multivariable MR analysis further confirmed the independent and significant causal relationship between MVPA and inguinal hernia, with an odds ratio of 1.901 (95% confidence interval, 1.098-3.291; P = .022). Our study highlights a significant association between MVPA and an increased risk of inguinal hernia, suggesting that physical activity should be carefully considered in preventive strategies for hernias. However, the relationship between sedentary behavior and hernia development warrants further investigation.

Mendelian Randomization Analysis↗

PubMed2005

Causality-imposed (Kramers-Kronig) relationships between attenuation and dispersion.

Causality imposes restrictions on both the time-domain and frequency-domain responses of a system. The Kramers-Kronig (K-K) relations relate the real and imaginary parts of the frequency-domain response. In ultrasonics, K-K relations often are used to link attenuation and dispersion. We review both integral and differential forms of the frequency-domain K-K relations that are relevant to theoretical models and laboratory measurements. We consider two methods for implementing integral K-K relations for the case of finite-bandwidth data, namely, extrapolation of data and restriction of integration limits. For the latter approach, we discuss the accuracy of K-K predictions for specific classes of system behavior and how the truncation of the integrals affects this accuracy. We demonstrate the accurate prediction of attenuation and dispersion using several forms of the K-K relations relevant to experimental measurements of media with attenuation coefficients obeying a frequency power law and media consisting of resonant scatterers. We also review the time-causal relations that describe the time-domain consequences of causality in the wave equation. These relations can be thought of as time-domain analogs of the (frequency-domain) K-K relations. Causality-imposed relations, such as the K-K and time-causal relations, provide useful tools for the analysis of measurements and models of acoustic systems.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2004

How the brain processes causal inferences in text.

Theoretical models of text processing, such as the construction-integration framework, pose fundamental questions about causal inference making that are not easily addressed by behavioral studies. In particular, a common result is that causal relatedness has a different effect on text reading times than on memory for the text: Whereas reading times increase linearly as causal relatedness decreases, memory for the text is best for events that are related by a moderate degree of causal relatedness and is poorer for events with low and high relatedness. Our functional magnetic resonance imaging study of the processing of two-sentence passages that varied in their degree of causal relatedness suggests that the inference process can be analyzed into two components, generation and integration, that are subserved by two large-scale cortical networks (a reasoning system in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the right-hemisphere language areas). These two cortical networks, which are distinguishable from the classical left-hemisphere language areas, approximately correspond to the two functional relations observed in the behavioral results.

Brain↗

PubMed2005

Parents' causal attributions about attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: the effect of child and parent sex.

BACKGROUND: Boys with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD) demonstrate disruptive behaviour at significantly higher rates compared to girls. Disruptive behaviour often develops as a result of negative interaction patterns within the caregiving relationship. Given the importance of parental cognitions as mediators of parental behaviour, the consideration of parent and child sex in the investigation of causal attributions regarding AD/HD may, at least partially, explain sex differences in the prevalence of disruptive behaviour among children with AD/HD. AIM: To examine the effect of parent and child sex on parental causal attributions and reactions about AD/HD and to investigate the interrelationships between these variables. SAMPLE: Three hundred and seventeen mothers and 317 fathers of boys and girls aged 4-6 years and enrolled in kindergartens in Athens. METHOD: A Greek version of the Parental Account of the Causes of Childhood Problems Questionnaire was used, which followed a vignette about a hypothetical child displaying symptoms of AD/HD. Half of the participants received a male and another half received a female version of the vignette. RESULTS: The child's sex greatly influenced parents' causal attributions about AD/HD. Higher ratings of intentionality were conferred to boys with AD/HD than girls and these attributions were related to stricter responses towards boys. In contrast, parents who considered biological dysfunction as underlying AD/HD, they mostly did so in the case of girls. Minimal effect of parent sex on causal attributions was found. CONCLUSIONS: Because causal attributions of intentionality relate to the response of more strictness and such attributions are more prevalent for boys than girls, then these perceptions about the aetiology of AD/HD in boys may be at the basis of negative interaction patterns. The increase of such interaction patterns may place boys at a more vulnerable position towards the development of secondary behaviour problems.

Adult↗