SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “spatially explicit population models”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

PubMed2002

A point pattern model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

The spatial spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is influenced by several sources of spatial heterogeneity: heterogeneity of the exposure to the virus, heterogeneity of the animal density and heterogeneity of the networks formed by the contacts between farms. A discrete space model assuming that farms can be reduced to points is proposed to handle these different factors. The farm-to-farm process of transmission of the infection is studied using point-pattern methodology. Farm management, commercial exchanges, possible airborne transmission, etc. cannot be explicitly taken into account because of lack of data. These latter factors are introduced via surrogate variables such as herd size and distance between farms. The model is built on the calculation of an infectious potential for each farm. This method has been applied to the study of the 1967-1968 FMD epidemic in UK and allowed us to evaluate the spatial variation of the probability of infection during this epidemic. Maximum likelihood estimation has been conducted conditional on the absence of data concerning the farms which were not infected during the epidemic. Model parameters have then been tested using an approximated conditional-likelihood ratio test. In this case study, results and validation are limited by the lack of data, but this model can easily be extended to include other information such as the effect of wind direction and velocity on airborne spread of the virus or the complex interactions between the locations of farms and the herd size. It can also be applied to other diseases where point approximation is convenient. In the context of an increase of animal density in some areas, the model explicitly incorporates the density and known epidemiological characteristics (e.g. incubation period) in the calculation of the probability of FMD infection. Control measures such as vaccination or slaughter can be simply introduced, respectively, as a reduction of the susceptible population or as a reduction of the source of infection.

Animal Husbandry↗

PubMed1997

Self-organizing nest construction in ants: individual worker behaviour and the nest's dynamics

We examine nest construction in the ant Leptothorax tuberointerruptus at two levels: (1) the building behaviour of individual workers and (2) the collective properties (temporal and spatial) of the structures they create. We also explore, for the first time explicitly, the linkage between these two levels. Leptothorax tuberointerruptus nests occur in flat cavities which provide the roof and the floor of their dwelling places. Hence, they construct only a peripheral encircling wall, breached by one or more entrance passageways. The wall is constructed brick by brick. This facilitates experimental estimation of the probabilities of individual workers picking up and depositing building material in response to different stimuli. We incorporate both the qualitative and quantitative behavioural rules that works employ during building into a mathematical model. This model confirms that a surprisingly small and simple set of behavioural rules are not only sufficient for wall construction but also for the formation of one or more nest entrances. In addition, this model predicts that the nests of these ants are likely to exhibit interesting dynamics, in which, for example, the tendency to build a new larger nest may lag behind growth of the population that the nest has to house. We present experimental evidence that suggests that this prediction is valid.Copyright 1997 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour1997The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour

Journal Article↗

PubMed2006

Modeling species' distributions to improve conservation in semiurban landscapes: koala case study.

Models of species' distributions are commonly used to inform landscape and conservation planning. In urban and semiurban landscapes, the distributions of species are determined by a combination of natural habitat and anthropogenic impacts. Understanding the spatial influence of these two processes is crucial for making spatially explicit decisions about conservation actions. We present a logistic regression model for the distribution of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in a semiurban landscape in eastern Australia that explicitly separates the effect of natural habitat quality and anthropogenic impacts on koala distributions. We achieved this by comparing the predicted distributions from the model with what the predicted distributions would have been if anthropogenic variables were at their mean values. Similar approaches have relied on making predictions assuming anthropogenic variables are zero, which will be unreliable if the training data set does not include anthropogenic variables close to zero. Our approach is novel because it can be applied to landscapes where anthropogenic variables are never close to zero. Our model showed that, averaged across the study area, natural habitat was the main determinant of koala presence. At a local scale, however anthropogenic impacts could be more important, with consequent implications for conservation planning. We demonstrated that this modeling approach, combined with the visual presentation of predictions as a map, provides important information for making decisions on how different conservation actions should be spatially allocated. This method is particularly useful for areas where wildlife and human populations exist in close proximity.

Animals↗

PubMed2001

Non-local concepts and models in biology.

In this paper, we consider local and non-local spatially explicit mathematical models for biological phenomena. We show that, when rate differences between fast and slow local dynamics are great enough, non-local models are adequate simplifications of local models. Non-local models thus avoid describing fast processes in mechanistic detail, instead describing the effects of fast processes on slower ones. As a consequence, non-local models are helpful to biologists because they describe biological systems on scales that are convenient to observation, data collection, and insight. We illustrate these arguments by comparing local and non-local models for the aggregation of hypothetical organisms, and we support theoretical ideas with concrete examples from cell biology and animal behavior.

Animal Communication↗

PubMed2005

Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models.

Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al. (2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Habitat destruction in a simple predator-prey patch model: how predators enhance prey persistence and abundance.

We model a metapopulation of predator-prey patches using both spatially implicit or mean-field (MF) and spatially explicit (SE) approaches. We show that in the MF model there are parameter regimes for which prey cannot persist in the absence of predators, but can in their presence. In addition, there are parameter regimes for which prey may persist in isolation, but the presence of predators will increase prey patch density. Predators may thus enhance prey persistence and overall abundance. The key mechanism responsible for this effect is the occurrence of prey dispersal from patches that are occupied by both prey and predators. In addition, these patches should be either long-lived, such as that occurs when predators keep prey from overexploiting its local resource, or the presence of a predator on a patch should significantly enhance the prey dispersal out of that patch. In the SE approach these positive effects of predators on prey persistence and abundance occur for even larger parameter ranges than in the MF model. Prey dispersal from predator-prey patches may thus be important for persistence of both species as a community, independent of the modeling framework studied. Comparison of the MF and SE approaches shows that local dispersal constraints can have the edge over global dispersal for the persistence of the metapopulation in regimes where the two species have a beneficial effect on each other. In general, our model provides an example of feedback in multiple-species metapopulations that can make the implementation of conservation schemes based on single-species arguments very risky.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Habitat destruction in mutualistic metacommunities.

We investigate a mutualistic metacommunity where the strength of the mutualistic interaction between species is measured by the extent to which the presence of one species on a patch either reduces the extinction rate of the others present on the same patch or increases their ability to colonize other patches. In both cases, a strong enough mutualism enables all species to persist at habitat densities where they would all be extinct in the absence of the interaction. However, a mutualistic interaction that enhances colonization enables the species to persist at lower habitat density than one that suppresses extinction. All species abruptly go extinct (catastrophe) when the habitat density is decreased infinitesimally below a critical value. A comparison of the mean field or spatially implicit case with unrestricted dispersal and colonization to all patches in the system with a spatially explicit case where dispersal is restricted to the immediate neighbours of the original patch leads to the intriguing conclusion that restricted dispersal can be favourable for species that have a beneficial effect on each other when habitat conditions are adverse. When the mutualistic interaction is strong enough, the extinction threshold or critical amount of habitat required for the persistence of all species is lower when the dispersal is locally restricted than when unrestricted ! The persistence advantage for all species created by the mutualistic interaction increases substantially with the number of species in the metacommunity, as does the advantage for restricted dispersal over global dispersal.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed2006

Competing populations on fragmented landscapes with spatially structured heterogeneities: improved landscape generation and mixed dispersal strategies.

Interactions between two species competing for space were studied using stochastic spatially explicit lattice-based simulations as well as pair approximations. The two species differed only in their dispersal strategies, which were characterized by the proportion of reproductive effort allocated to long-distance (far) dispersal versus short-distance (near) dispersal to adjacent sites. All population dynamics took place on landscapes with spatially clustered distributions of suitable habitat, described by two parameters specifying the amount and the local spatial autocorrelation of suitable habitat. Whereas previous results indicated that coexistence between pure near and far dispersers was very rare, taking place over only a very small region of the landscape parameter space, when mixed strategies are allowed, multiple strategies can coexist over a much wider variety of landscapes. On such spatially structured landscapes, the populations can partition the habitat according to local conditions, with one species using pure near dispersal to exploit large contiguous patches of suitable habitat, and another species using mixed dispersal to colonize isolated smaller patches (via far dispersal) and then rapidly exploit those patches (via near dispersal). An improved mean-field approximation which incorporates the spatially clustered habitat distribution is developed for modeling a single species on these landscapes, along with an improved Monte Carlo algorithm for generating spatially clustered habitat distributions.

Computer Simulation↗

PubMed2006

Sequential analysis of lines of evidence--an advanced weight-of-evidence approach for ecological risk assessment.

Weight-of-evidence (WOE) approaches have been used in ecological risk assessment (ERA) for many years. The approaches integrate various types of data (e.g., from chemistry, bioassay, and field studies) to make an overall conclusion of risk. However, the current practice of WOE has several important difficulties, including a lack of transparency related to how each line of evidence is weighted or integrated into the overall weight-of-evidence conclusion. Therefore, a sequential analysis of lines of evidence (SALE) approach has been developed that advances the practice of WOE. It was developed for an ERA of chemical stressors but also can be used for nonchemical stressors and is equally applicable to the aquatic and terrestrial environments. The sequential aspect of the SALE process is a significant advancement and is based on 2 primary ideas. First, risks can be ruled out with the use of certain lines of evidence, including modeled hazard quotients (HQs) and comparisons of soil, water, or sediment quality with conservative soil, water or sediment quality guidelines. Thus, the SALE process recognizes that HQs are most useful in ruling out risk rather than predicting risk to ecological populations or communities. Second, the SALE process provides several opportunities to exit the risk assessment process, not only when risks are ruled out, but also when magnitude of effect is acceptable or when little or no evidence exists that associations between stressors and effects may be causal. Thus, the SALE approach explicitly includes interaction between assessors and managers. It illustrates to risk managers how risk management can go beyond the simple derivation of risk-based concentrations of chemicals of concern to risk management goals based on ecological metrics (e.g., species diversity). It also can be used to stimulate discussion of the limitations of the ERA science, and how scientists deal with uncertainty. It should assist risk managers by allowing their decisions to be based on a sequential, flexible, and transparent process that includes direct toxicity risks, indirect risks (via changes in habitat suitability), and the spatial and temporal factors that can influence the risk assessment.

Canada↗

PubMed1974

The decay of genetic variability in geographically structured populations.

The geographical structure of a population distributed continuously and homogeneously along an infinite linear habitat is explored. The analysis is restricted to a single locus in the absence of selection, and every mutant is assumed to be new to the population. An explicit formula is derived for the probability that two homologous genes separated by a given distance at any time t are the same allele. The ultimate rate of approach to equilibrium is shown to be t(-3/2)e(-2ut), where u is the mutation rate. An approximation is given for the stationary probability of allelism in an infinite two-dimensional population, which, unlike previous expressions, is finite everywhere. For a finite habitat of arbitrary shape and any number of dimensions, it is proved that if the population density is very high, then asymptotically the transient part of the probability of allelism is spatially uniform and decays at the rate e(-[2u+1/(2N)]t), where N is the total population size. Thus, in this respect the population behaves as if it were panmictic. The dependence of the amount of local gene frequency differentiation on population density and habitat size and dimensionality is discussed.

Alleles↗

PubMed1982

Urbanization, interregional accessibility, and the decision to migrate.

Trends in population and labor force growth in nonmetropolitan areas of the United States during the 1970s are analyzed. The authors investigate the relationships among migration behavior, urban accessibility, and externalities such as congestion that are associated with urban residence. "A model of the migration decision [is examined] that incorporates in an explicit fashion this proximity-centrality relationship. Estimates of the model are also discussed, with specific attention given to the relationship under question. In addition, the age selectivity of the relationship [is] examined. Insights on the nonmetropolitan reversal drawn from the model estimates are discussed in a third section, followed by concluding remarks."

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Density-dependent migration and synchronism in metapopulations.

A spatially explicit metapopulation model with density-dependent dispersal is proposed in order to study the stability of synchronous dynamics. A stability criterion is obtained based on the computation of the transversal Liapunov number of attractors on the synchronous invariant manifold. We examine in detail a special case of density-dependent dispersal rule where migration does not occur if the patch density is below a certain critical density, while the fraction of individuals that migrate to other patches is kept constant if the patch density is above the threshold level. Comparisons with density-independent migration models indicate that this simple density-dependent dispersal mechanism reduces the stability of synchronous dynamics. We were able to quantify exactly this loss of stability through the frequency that synchronous trajectories are above the critical density.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2004

Effects of dispersal mechanisms on spatio-temporal development of epidemics.

The nature of pathogen transport mechanisms strongly determines the spatial pattern of disease and, through this, the dynamics and persistence of epidemics in plant populations. Up to recently, the range of possible mechanisms or interactions assumed by epidemic models has been limited: either independent of the location of individuals (mean-field models) or restricted to local contacts (between nearest neighbours or decaying exponentially with distance). Real dispersal processes are likely to lie between these two extremes, and many are well described by long-tailed contact kernels such as power laws. We investigate the effect of different spatial dispersal mechanisms on the spatio-temporal spread of disease epidemics by simulating a stochastic Susceptible-infective model motivated by previous data analyses. Both long-term stationary behaviour (in the presence of a control or recovery process) and transient behaviour (which varies widely within and between epidemics) are examined. We demonstrate the relationship between epidemic size and disease pattern (characterized by spatial autocorrelation), and its dependence on dispersal and infectivity parameters. Special attention is given to boundary effects, which can decrease disease levels significantly relative to standard, periodic geometries in cases of long-distance dispersal. We propose and test a definition of transient duration which captures the dependence of transients on dispersal mechanisms. We outline an analytical approach that represents the behaviour of the spatially-explicit model, and use it to prove that the epidemic size is predicted exactly by the mean-field model (in the limit of an infinite system) when dispersal is sufficiently long ranged (i.e. when the power-law exponent a</=2).

Disease Outbreaks↗

PubMed2005

Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources -- combating or containing?

BACKGROUND: Rabies is the most important viral zoonosis from a global perspective. Worldwide efforts to combat the disease by oral vaccination of reservoirs have managed to eradicate wildlife rabies in large areas of central Europe and North-America. Thus, repeated vaccination has been discontinued recently on a geographical scale. However, as rabies has not yet been eradicated globally, a serious risk of re-introduction remains. What is the best spatial design for an emergency vaccination program -- particularly if resources are limited? Either, we treat a circular area around the detected case and run the risk of infected hosts leaving the limited control area, because a sufficient immunisation level has not yet been built up. Or, initially concentrate the SAME resources in order to establish a protective ring which is more distant from the infected local area, and which then holds out against the challenge of the approaching epidemic. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to contrast the two strategies for emergency vaccination. The spatial-explicit model is based on fox group home-ranges, which facilitates the simulation of rabies spread to larger areas relevant to management. We used individual-based fox groups to follow up the effects of vaccination in a detailed manner. Thus, regionally -- bait distribution orientates itself to standard schemes of oral immunisation programs and locally -- baits are assigned to individual foxes. RESULTS: Surprisingly, putting the controlled area ring-like around the outbreak does not outperform the circular area of the same size centred on the outbreak. Only during the very first baitings, does the ring area result in fewer breakouts. But then as rabies is eliminated within the circle area, the respective ring area fails, due to the non-controlled inner part. We attempt to take advantage of the initially fewer breakouts beyond the ring when applying a mixed strategy. Therefore, after a certain number of baitings, the area under control was increased for both strategies towards the same larger circular area. The circle-circle strategy still outperforms the ring-circle strategy and analysis of the spatial-temporal disease spread reveals why: improving control efficacy by means of a mixed strategy is impossible in the field, due to the build-up time of population immunity. CONCLUSION: For practical emergency management of a new outbreak of rabies, the ring-like application of oral vaccination is not a favourable strategy at all. Even if initial resources are substantially low and there is a serious risk of rabies cases outside the limited control area, our results suggest circular application instead of ring vaccination.

Administration, Oral↗

PubMed2006

Metapopulation dynamics and biological invasions: a spatially explicit model applied to a freshwater snail.

The spatial spread of invading organisms is a major contemporary concern. We focus here on invasions in inherently fragmented habitats, such as freshwater systems, and explore the usefulness of metapopulation models in this context. Maximum-likelihood methods allow the estimation of colonization and extinction rates, as functions of habitat patch sizes and positions, from time series of presence/absence data. This framework also provides confidence intervals of these estimates and hypotheses tests. We analyze a previously unpublished 12-year survey of the spread of the introduced snail Tarebia granifera in 47 Martinican rivers. Simple metapopulation models reproduce with reasonable accuracy several quantitative aspects of the invasion, including regional abundance, spatiotemporal structure, and site-by-site colonization dates. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the invasion sequence depended strongly on metapopulation size (number of sites) and spatial structure (distances among sites). The invasion history has also been accelerated by stochastic events, as illustrated by a large, central river that happened to be colonized very early and served as an invasion pool. Finally, we discuss the benefits of this approach for the understanding of invasions in fragmented landscapes.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

The effects of plant distribution and frugivore density on the scale and shape of dispersal kernels.

For many plant species, seed dispersal is one of the most important spatial demographic processes. We used a diffusion approximation and a spatially explicit simulation model to explore the mechanisms generating seed dispersal kernels for plants dispersed by frugivores. The simulation model combined simple movement and foraging rules with seed gut passage time, plant distribution, and fruit production. A simulation experiment using plant spatial aggregation and frugivore density as factors showed that seed dispersal scale was largely determined by the degree of plant aggregation, whereas kernel shape was mostly dominated by frugivore density. Kernel shapes ranged from fat tailed to thin tailed, but most shapes were between an exponential and that of the solution of a diffusion equation. The proportion of dispersal kernels with fat tails was highest for landscapes with clumped plant distributions and increased with increasing number of dispersers. The diffusion model provides a basis for models including more behavioral details but can also be used to approximate dispersal kernels once a diffusion rate is estimated from animal movement data. Our results suggest that important characteristics of dispersal kernels will depend on the spatial pattern of plant distribution and on disperser density when frugivores mediate seed dispersal.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Combining control measures for more effective management of fisheries under uncertainty: quotas, effort limitation and protected areas.

We consider combinations of three types of control measures for the management of fisheries when the input information for policy decisions is uncertain. The methods considered include effort controls, catch quotas and area closures. We simulated a hypothetical fishery loosely based on the Icelandic cod fishery, using a simple spatially explicit dynamic model. We compared the performance with respect to conserving the resource and economic return for each type of control measure alone and in combination. In general, combining more than one type of primary direct control on fishing provides a greater buffer to uncertainty than any single form of fishery control alone. Combining catch quota control with a large closed area is a most effective system for reducing the risk of stock collapse and maintaining both short and long-term economic performance. Effort controls can also be improved by adding closed areas to the management scheme. We recommend that multiple control methods be used wherever possible and that closed areas should be used to buffer uncertainty. To be effective, these closed areas must be large and exclude all principal gears to provide real protection from fishing mortality.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Asymptotically exact analysis of stochastic metapopulation dynamics with explicit spatial structure.

We describe a mathematically exact method for the analysis of spatially structured Markov processes. The method is based on a systematic perturbation expansion around the deterministic, non-spatial mean-field theory, using the theory of distributions to account for space and the underlying stochastic differential equations to account for stochasticity. As an example, we consider a spatial version of the Levins metapopulation model, in which the habitat patches are distributed in the d-dimensional landscape Rd in a random (but possibly correlated) manner. Assuming that the dispersal kernel is characterized by a length scale L, we examine how the behavior of the metapopulation deviates from the mean-field model for a finite but large L. For example, we show that the equilibrium fraction of occupied patches is given by p(0)+c/L(d)+O(L(-3d/2)), where p(0) is the equilibrium state of the Levins model and the constant c depends on p(0), the dispersal kernel, and the structure of the landscape. We show that patch occupancy can be increased or decreased by spatial structure, but is always decreased by stochasticity. Comparison with simulations show that the analytical results are not only asymptotically exact (as L-->infinity), but a good approximation also when L is relatively small.

Animals↗