SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Predictors”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

PubMed2005

Predictors for the immediate responders to cervical manipulation in patients with neck pain.

Cervical manipulation has been considered an effective treatment for managing neck pain. However, clinical observation showed that cervical manipulation was not effective for every patient. Development of clinical prediction rules for identifying patients with neck pain who are likely to respond to cervical manipulation may improve clinical decision-making and the treatment success rate. The purpose of the study was to identify predictors for the immediate responders to cervical manipulation treatment in patients with neck pain. One hundred patients with neck pain (34 males and 66 females, mean age = 46 +/- 11 years) participated in the study. Patient's demographic data, symptom aggravating or easing factors, pain, and disability level were obtained through an initial assessment. A series of physical examinations were also administered. After receiving a single session of cervical manipulation, the patient was re-evaluated immediately to determine if a successful response to treatment was obtained. The successful response was determined by improvements seen in one of the three outcome variables that included reduction of pain intensity, significant perceived improvement, and high satisfaction level. From these judgment criteria, patients were classified into either responders or nonresponders to the cervical manipulation. Univariate analyses were used to assess if the treatment responders and nonresponders were different in their clinical presentations. The clinical factors that showed significant differences between two groups were then entered into a stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis to identify significant predictors and the prediction rule for treatment responders. Six predictors including "initial scores on Neck Disability Index < 11.50", "having bilateral involvement pattern", "not performing sedentary work > 5 h/day", "feeling better while moving the neck", "without feeling worse while extending the neck", and "the diagnosis of spondylosis without radiculopathy" were identified to significantly predict the immediate responders. The presence of four or more of these predictors increased the probability of success with manipulation to 89%. We concluded that using favourable predictors to identify treatment responders before administering cervical manipulations could significantly increase the probabilities of a successful treatment. This study finding may enhance the efficacy of clinical decision-making in using cervical manipulation intervention.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Medical malpractice predictors and risk factors for ophthalmologists performing LASIK and photorefractive keratectomy surgery.

PURPOSE: To identify physician predictors in LASIK and photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) surgery that correlate with a higher risk for malpractice liability claims and lawsuits. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal, cohort study. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: A comparison of physician demographic and practice pattern data of 100 consecutive Ophthalmic Mutual Insurance Company (OMIC) LASIK and PRK claims and lawsuits with demographic and practice pattern data for all active refractive surgeons insured by OMIC between 1996 to 2002 was made. Background information and data were obtained from OMIC underwriting applications, a physician practice pattern survey, and claims file records. Using an outcome of whether or not a physician had a history of a claim or lawsuit, logistic regression analyses were used separately for each predictor as well as controlling for refractive surgery volume. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Malpractice claim or lawsuit for performance of PRK or LASIK surgery. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the most important predictor of filing a claim was surgical volume, with those performing more surgery having a greater risk of incurring a claim (odds ratio [OR] = 31.4 for >1000 surgeries/year versus 0-20 surgeries/year, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.9-125, P = 0.0001). Having one or more prior claim was the only other predictor examined that remained statistically significant after controlling for patient volume (OR = 6.4, 95% CI = 2.5-16.4, P = 0.0001). Physician gender, advertising use, preoperative time spent with patient, and comanagement seemed to be strong predictors in multivariate analyses when surgical volume was greater than 100 cases per year. CONCLUSION: The chances for incurring a malpractice claim or lawsuit for PRK or LASIK correlate significantly with higher surgical volume and a history of a claim or lawsuit. Additional risk factors that increase in importance with higher surgical volume include physician gender, advertising use, preoperative time spent with the patient, and comanagement with optometrists. These findings may be used in the future to help improve the quality of care for patients undergoing refractive surgery and to provide data for underwriting criteria and risk management protocols to manage proactively and perhaps reduce the risk for claims and lawsuits against refractive surgeons.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Does size matter? Tumor size and morphology as predictors of nodal status and recurrence in endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether tumor size or morphology is predictive of extrauterine disease and/or recurrence risk in endometrial cancer and therefore guide decisions about the necessity of complete surgical staging and adjuvant therapy. METHODS: All women with surgically treated endometrial carcinoma between 1 January 1990 and 1 January 2000 were eligible. 345 patients were eligible for retrospective chart review. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the predictors of nodal metastasis and recurrence. RESULTS: As tumor size increased, the risk of nodal metastasis increased. However, a risk of nodal metastasis remained even with small lesions less than or equal to 2 cm (6.3% risk). Patients with tumor size greater than 2 cm had a 26.3% incidence of nodal metastasis. In univariate analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for tumor size as a predictor of extrauterine disease was 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.6). In multivariate analysis, tumor size was not statistically significant. Only the lesions greater than or equal to 8 cm confer a risk that approaches previously identified well-known predictors. Tumor size was not found to be a statistically significant predictor of recurrence OR 1.3 (1.0-1.8). CONCLUSIONS: Tumor size correlates with extrauterine disease, but it is not an independent prognostic variable. Although the risk of extrauterine disease increases with tumor size, the risk of nodal metastases remains even for those patients with very small tumors, underscoring the need for routine complete surgical staging. Tumor size does not appear to be an independent predictor of recurrence.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

CA125 level as a predictor of progression-free survival and overall survival in ovarian cancer patients with surgically defined disease status prior to the initiation of intraperitoneal consolidation therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Recent data suggest that differences in CA125 levels within the normal range may predict progression-free survival (PFS), but limited information is available regarding the value of these differences in predicting overall survival (OS) in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. The objective of this study was to determine whether CA125 is an independent predictor of OS in patients with surgically defined disease status at the end of primary therapy prior to intraperitoneal (IP) consolidation chemotherapy. A secondary objective was to assess the relationship of CA125 level to PFS. METHODS: Using data from a retrospective cohort of 433 patients who received intraperitoneal (IP) therapy following primary treatment for ovarian cancer between 1984 and 1998, we identified 241 patients with a complete clinical response and CA125 data at the time of second-look surgery prior to IP chemotherapy. Patient demographics and updated follow-up status were abstracted from medical records. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared using the log-rank test, and Cox regression models were used for multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The majority of patients had advanced stage III or IV disease (n=201, 83%) and high-grade histology (n=163, 68%). Taxane was used as part of primary platinum-based therapy in 56% (n=134) of patients, and subsequent IP chemotherapy was platinum-based in 85% (n=206). When considered as a continuous variable, CA125 was a predictor of OS (P=0.029). Using the median CA125 level in our study group as a cut-off, OS was increased in patients with CA125 < or =12 U/ml (median 5.8 years) compared with >12 (3.7 years) (P=0.0027). CA125 level was an independent predictor of OS (HR: 1.410; 95% CI, 1.044, 1.904, P=0.0248) in a multivariate model that included stage (P=0.0166), grade (P=0.0001), and findings at second-look surgery (P=0.0003). CA125 level was also a predictor of clinical PFS (radiographic or CA125 elevation criteria alone) in a subset of 161 patients as a continuous variable (P=0.0036), and when divided at the median (< or = or >12; median 2.8 years vs. 1.7 years; P=0.0017). CONCLUSIONS: In our study population, CA125 level at the end of primary therapy was a predictor of OS and PFS when considered as a continuous variable, or when divided at the median (< or = or >12 U/ml). Further prospective study is required to optimize clinically significant cut-off values within the normal range of CA125 levels for both OS and PFS endpoints.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Predictors of long-term event-free survival after percutaneous balloon mitral valvuloplasty.

Previous studies have shown that long-term event-free survival after percutaneous balloon mitral valvuloplasty (PBMV) could be predicted by several baseline characteristics. However, the extent of the predictive variables has not been defined accurately yet. In this study, 40 baseline demographic, clinical, echocardiographic, and hemodynamic variables of 128 consecutive patients with mitral stenosis who underwent PBMV in a single institution, were analyzed in order to predict long-term event-free survival, defined as absence of death, mitral valve replacement, or repeat PBMV. Univariate survival analysis showed that age (p = 0.03), history of commissurotomy or mitral valvuloplasty (p = 0.05), calcium grade (p = 0.008), echo score (p = 0.0001), preprocedure cardiac output (p = 0.03), preprocedure valve area (p = 0.0007), postprocedure mean left atrial pressure (p = 0.0001), postprocedure valve area (p = 0.0001), postprocedure valve gradient (p = 0.013), and postprocedural mitral regurgitation (p = 0.01) were statistically significant predictors of event-free survival. Additionally, the absolute and/or relative procedural change of the following variables were found to be statistically significant predictors of event-free survival: left atrial pressure (p = 0.01), valve area (p = 0.0001), and valve gradient (p = 0.02). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated that when only variables available before the procedure were considered, echo score (p = 0.002) and preprocedure valve area (p = 0.0002) were found to be independent predictors of event-free survival. When both pre- and postprocedure variables were considered, echo score (p = 0.002) and postprocedure valve area (p = 0.0001) were found to be independent predictors of event-free survival. In conclusion, mitral valve morphology reflected by echo score, and baseline and postprocedure mitral valve area were found to be the strongest independent predictors of event-free survival after PBMV.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

Predictors of interest in prostate-specific antigen screening and the impact of informed consent: what should we tell our patients?

PURPOSE: Screening for prostate cancer with the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) remains highly controversial. We sought to discern which patient factors predict interest in the PSA and how informed consent impacts these predictors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a randomized trial that found that informed consent decreases patient interest in PSA screening, potential predictors of interest were analyzed separately in the uninformed (n = 102) and informed (n = 103) cohorts to examine the effects of the informational intervention. RESULTS: Univariate predictors of PSA screening interest (P < 0.05) among uninformed patients included perceived efficacy of screening, perceived seriousness of an abnormal PSA, and willingness to accept treatment risks. Among patients who had been informed about PSA screening, univariate predictors included family history of prostate cancer, perceived susceptibility to prostate cancer, age (inverse association), and perceived efficacy, although informed patients rated PSA efficacy significantly lower than uninformed patients (P < 0.001). In multivariate logistic regression modeling for the uninformed cohort, perceived screening efficacy (P < 0.001), perceived seriousness (P < 0.05), and willingness to accept treatment risks (P < 0.05) together were significant predictors of PSA screening interest. Among informed patients, perceived efficacy (P < 0.001), perceived susceptibility (P = 0.01), and younger age (P = 0.01) together predicted interest in screening. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to uninformed patients, patients given information about PSA screening and prostate cancer are more likely to be interested in screening if they have a family history of prostate cancer, are younger, or otherwise consider themselves susceptible to developing prostate cancer. Uninformed patients are more likely to base their screening interest on the perceived seriousness of prostate cancer and on their willingness to accept treatment risks.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Is the female gender an independent predictor of adverse outcome after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting?

BACKGROUND: The female gender is an independent predictor of adverse outcome after conventional coronary artery bypass grafting using cardiopulmonary bypass. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of the female gender on the outcome after off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery. METHODS: This study is a retrospective review of 413 consecutive patients (181 women and 232 men) who underwent OPCAB between January 1999 and May 2001. Adverse outcomes were divided into minor adverse outcomes (MINAO), major adverse outcomes (MAJAO), and prolonged length of stay (PLOS) more than 7 days. MINAO included atrial fibrillation, respiratory complications except adult respiratory distress syndrome, and any wound infection except mediastinitis. MAJAO included stroke, myocardial infarction, renal failure, adult respiratory distress syndrome, mediastinitis, low cardiac output, mechanical ventilation more than 24 hours, intensive therapy unit stay more than 24 hours, gastrointestinal complications, cardiorespiratory arrest, and mortality within 30 days. Preoperative and intraoperative variables were evaluated as predictors of MINAO, MAJAO, and PLOS by univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The groups were matched for age and Parsonnet score-predicted mortality. However, the women had a higher incidence of chronic obstructive airway disease (p = 0.04), diabetes (p = 0.01), obesity (p = 0.000), peripheral vascular disease (p = 0.000), hypertension (p = 0.000), unstable angina (p = 0.005), history of previous failed nonsurgical intervention (p = 0.02), and nonelective operation (p = 0.000). There were a fewer number of grafts performed in the female group (2.8 vs 3.4, p = 0.000), with the circumflex territory being revascularised less frequently (p = 0.001). Univariate analysis identified the female gender to be a predictor of only MINAO (p = 0.001) and PLOS (p = 0.000). However, with multivariate analysis, female gender was not found to be an independent predictor of MINAO, MAJAO, or PLOS. CONCLUSIONS: In OPCAB, the female gender is not an independent predictor of MINAO, MAJAO, or PLOS.

Coronary Artery Bypass↗

PubMed1999

Race is not an independent predictor of positive surgical margins after radical prostatectomy.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether race is an independent predictor of positive surgical margins in patients who undergo radical prostatectomy. METHODS: Radical prostatectomies were performed on 750 patients at five Veterans Affairs hospitals: Shreveport, Louisiana (n = 451), Houston, Texas (n = 92), Jackson, Mississippi (n = 83), New Orleans, Louisiana (n = 69), and Little Rock, Arkansas (n = 55). All men who did not receive neoadjuvant hormonal therapy and for whom complete follow-up data were available were included in the analysis (of 607, 260 were African-American and 347 were white). Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the significance of race as an independent predictor of surgical margin status after radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. RESULTS: After controlling for clinical stage, Gleason grade, and preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that race was not an independent predictor of positive surgical margins (P = 0.9). Of the variables evaluated, both preoperative PSA (P = 0.0005) and biopsy Gleason grade (P = 0.047) were significant predictors of an increased risk of a positive surgical margin. CONCLUSIONS: Positive surgical margins are a widely accepted surrogate marker of increased biologic potential in patients with prostate cancer. In our study population, race was not an independent predictor of surgical margin status. Coupled with observations that survival is not related to race, this finding suggests that the biology of prostate cancer in African-American and white men is similar and that observed racial differences more likely are due to ethnic factors that influence tumorigenicity.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Endometrial cancer: predictors of peritoneal failure.

OBJECTIVE: To assess determinants of peritoneal failure in endometrial cancer patients after definitive primary treatment. METHODS: Of 599 patients with endometrial cancer who had primary surgery at our institution during the decade before 1994, 131 had relapse. We defined "peritoneal failure" as relapse when it occurred in the upper abdomen or involved the pelvic peritoneum (or both). Mean follow-up was 72.8 months. RESULTS: Peritoneal failure was detected in 37 of 599 (6%) patients and represented 28% of identified failures. Stage IV disease, cervical stromal invasion, adnexal involvement, myometrial invasion >50%, primary tumor diameter >2 cm, positive peritoneal cytology, lymph node metastasis, histologic grade 3, nonendometrioid histologic subtype, absence of associated hyperplasia, and lymphovascular invasion correlated significantly (P < 0.01) with peritoneal failure. However, on regression analysis, only stage IV disease (P < 0.001, relative risk [RR] = 7.53), nonendometrioid histologic subtype (P = 0.02, RR = 3.01), and cervical stromal invasion (P = 0.04, RR = 2.83) were independent predictors of peritoneal failure. Because 22 of 37 (59%) peritoneal failures were in patients with stage IV disease, we considered separately the 545 patients with stage I-III disease. On regression analysis, nonendometrioid histologic subtype (P < 0.001, RR = 11.58), positive peritoneal cytology (P = 0.009, RR = 6.72), lymph node metastasis (P = 0.02, RR = 5.10), and cervical stromal invasion (P = 0.04, RR = 3.10) were independent predictors of peritoneal failure. Of the 38 patients in whom at least two of these four predictors were positive, 26% had peritoneal failure at 5 years, compared with 1% of the 507 patients who had none or only 1 predictor (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients with stage IV disease and those with stage I-III disease and at least two of the four independent predictors (nonendometrioid histology, positive peritoneal cytology, cervical stromal invasion, and lymph node metastasis) would be candidates for new therapeutic trials incorporating surgical and adjuvant treatment targeting the entire abdominal cavity.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Storage (irritative) and voiding (obstructive) symptoms as predictors of benign prostatic hyperplasia progression and related outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the utility of voiding and filling symptom subscores in predicting features of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) progression, including acute urinary retention (AUR) and prostate surgery. METHODS: The Proscar Long-term Efficacy and Safety Study (PLESS) was a 4-year study designed to evaluate the effects of finasteride versus placebo in men with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), clinical evidence of BPH, and no evidence of prostate cancer. A self-administered questionnaire was employed to quantify LUTS at baseline. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to assess baseline characteristics from patients treated with placebo as predictors of outcomes. The characteristics assessed included the overall symptom score (Quasi-AUA SI), separate voiding and filling subscores, prostate volume (PV) and serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. RESULTS: PV and PSA were superior to the symptom scores at predicting episodes of spontaneous AUR and all types of AUR. The Quasi-AUA SI and the filling and voiding subscores were effective at predicting progression to surgery; however, PSA was more effective at predicting this outcome. To better evaluate symptoms as predictors of surgery, patients who experienced a preceding episode of AUR were excluded from the surgery analysis. In the absence of preceding AUR, the best predictors of future surgery were the Quasi-AUA SI and the filling subscore. CONCLUSIONS: Among men with LUTS, clinical BPH and no history of AUR, the overall symptom score and storage subscore are useful parameters to aid clinicians in identifying patients at risk for future prostate surgery. PV and PSA were the best predictors of AUR, while PSA was the best predictor of prostate surgery (for all indications).

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2000

Outcome predictors for 143 patients with superior sulcus tumors treated by multidisciplinary approach at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center.

PURPOSE: Superior sulcus tumors (SST) of the lung are uncommon and constitute approximately 3% of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). These tumors cause specific symptoms and signs, and are associated with patterns of failure that differ from those seen for NSCLC tumors in other nonapical locations. Prognostic factors and most effective treatments are controversial. We conducted a retrospective study at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center to identify outcome predictors for patients with SST treated by a multidisciplinary approach. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This retrospective review of 143 patients without distant metastasis at presentation is a continuation of a previous M. D. Anderson study now updated to 1994. In this study, we examine the 5-year survival rate by pretreatment tumor and patient characteristics and by the treatments received. Strict criteria were used to define SST. Actuarial life-table analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare survival rates. RESULTS: Overall predictors of 5-year survival were weight loss (p < 0.01), supraclavicular fossa (p = 0. 03), or vertebral body (p = 0.05) involvement, stage of the disease (p < 0.01), and surgical treatment (p < 0.01). Five-year survival for patients with Stage IIB disease was 47% compared to 14% for Stage IIIA, and 16% for Stage IIIB. For patients with Stage IIB disease, surgical treatment (p < 0.01) and weight loss (p = 0.01) were significant independent predictors of 5-year survival. Among patients with Stage IIIA disease, the only predictor of survival was Karnofsky performance score (KPS) (p = 0.02). For patients with Stage IIIB disease, the only independent predictor of survival was a right superior sulcus location, which was associated with a worse 5-year survival rate than that for patients with tumors in the left superior sulcus (p = 0.02). More patients with adenocarcinoma than with squamous cell tumors experienced cerebral metastases within 5 years (p < 0.01). Patients without gross residual disease after surgical resection who received postoperative radiation therapy with total doses of 55 to 64 Gy had a 5-year survival rate of 82% as compared with the 5-year survival rate of 56% in patients who received 50 to 54 Gy. Twenty-three patients survived for longer than 3 years. Of these, 4 patients (17%) received radiation therapy alone or in combination with chemotherapy without surgical resection. The other 19 patients (83%) had resection combined with radiation therapy and/or chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study confirm the importance of the new staging system, separating T3 N0 M0 (Stage IIB) from Stage IIIA, since there was a significant difference in the 5-year survival (p < 0.01). Interestingly, there was no significant 5-year survival difference between Stage IIIA (N2) and Stage IIIB (T4 or N3). This study also suggests that surgery is an important component of the multidisciplinary approach to patients with SST if their nodes were negative. Disease that is minimally invading surrounding normal structures can be resected followed by radiation therapy in doses of 55 to 64 Gy. Further investigation of treatment strategies combining high-dose radiation therapy (>/=66 Gy) with chemotherapy is indicated for patients with unresectable and/or node-positive (N2) SST.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Importance of estimated functional capacity as a predictor of all-cause mortality among patients referred for exercise thallium single-photon emission computed tomography: report of 3,400 patients from a single center.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the relative influence of estimated functional capacity and thallium-201 (Tl-201) single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) findings on prediction of short-term all-cause and cardiac-related mortality. BACKGROUND: Decreased functional capacity and abnormal Tl-201 SPECT findings are predictive of increased cardiovascular risk and mortality. However, the relative importance of these variables as predictors of all-cause mortality is not well established. METHODS: Analyses were based on 3,400 consecutive adults undergoing symptom-limited exercise Tl-201 SPECT testing at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation between September 1990 and December 1993; none had previous invasive procedures, heart failure or valve disease. Estimated functional capacity, classified by age and gender, and thallium perfusion defects, expressed as a stress extent thallium score on a 12-segment scale, were analyzed to determine their relative prognostic importance during 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Of 3,400 patients, 108 (3.2%) died during follow-up; 32 deaths were identified as cardiac related. On univariable analysis, estimated functional capacity was a strong predictor of death, with 62 (57%) deaths occurring in patients achieving < 6 metabolic equivalents (METs) (log-rank chi-square 86, p < 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, the strongest independent predictors of all-cause mortality were fair or poor functional capacity (adjusted relative risk [RR] 3.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36 to 6.64, chi-square 27, p < 0.0001) and age (adjusted RR for 10 years 2.25, 95% CI 1.80 to 2.80, chi-square 27, p < 0.0001). The presence of SPECT thallium perfusion defects was a less powerful predictor of death (for each two additional segments with defects, adjusted RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.43, chi-square 5, p = 0.02). Cardiac mortality was predicted by both fair or poor functional capacity (adjusted RR 4.37, 95% CI 1.59 to 12.00, chi-square 8, p = 0.004) and by stress extent thallium score (adjusted RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.11, chi-square 13, p = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: In this clinically low risk group, estimated functional capacity was a strong and overwhelmingly important independent predictor of all-cause mortality among patients undergoing exercise Tl-201 SPECT testing. The extent of myocardial perfusion defects was of comparable importance for the prediction of cardiac mortality.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Fall-risk screening test: a prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly.

This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable predictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and social functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potential predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identified in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and functional limitations proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subsequent scores of the screening test ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides a fall-risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly.

Accidental Falls↗

PubMed2006

Neurologic and non-neurologic predictors of mortality in ischemic stroke patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Patients with severe strokes may have different associated medical comorbidities from those with mild strokes. This study evaluated the neurologic and non-neurologic medical predictors of mortality in patients with severe cerebral infarction in the acute stage. METHODS: Patients admitted to a neurologic intensive care unit (ICU) due to cerebral infarction were included. Neurologic and non-neurologic predictors for in-unit mortality were determined by logistic regression analyses. Two models using (A) neurologic factors and (B) combined neurologic and non-neurologic factors as mortality predictors were developed. The performance of the models in predicting overall, neurologic and non-neurologic mortalities was compared by areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) of the derived regressive equations. RESULTS: Of 231 patients with cerebral infarction admitted to the ICU, 34 (14.7%) died during ICU stay. Conscious state and acute physiologic abnormalities were significant predictors of mortality. The length of ICU stay in patients with non-neurologic mortality was longer than in those with neurologic mortality (p = 0.044). The AUC of Model B was larger than that of Model A in predicting overall (0.768 +/- 0.045 vs. 0.863 +/- 0.033, p = 0.005) and non-neurologic mortalities (0.570 +/- 0.073 vs. 0.707 +/- 0.074, p = 0.009), while there was no difference in predicting death from neurologic causes (0.858 +/- 0.044 vs. 0.880 +/- 0.032, p = 0.217). CONCLUSION: Impaired consciousness and acute physiologic abnormalities are independent predictors of mortality for severe ischemic stroke during the acute stage. Neurologic factors predict early mortality from intrinsic cerebral dysfunction, while non-neurologic factors, especially the associated physiologic abnormalities, predict late mortality from medical complications.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Early and long term outcome of the arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries: predictors and functional evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this report were to study the early and late outcome in terms of mortality, freedom from reoperation, predictors for late pulmonary stenosis (PAS) and insufficiency of the neo-aortic valve (AVI) in patients with transposition of the great arteries (TGA) undergoing arterial switch operation (ASO). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 1990 and December 2001, 134 patients with TGA underwent ASO. The patients were divided in Group I (n=88)-TGA with intact ventricular septum and Group II (n=46)-TGA with ventricular septal defect (VSD). The pulmonary artery was reconstructed employing the direct anastomosis technique (PT-I) in 21 (15.7%) patients, the double-patch technique (PT-II) in 41 (30.6%), single pantaloon patch (partial circumference) (PT-III) in 46 (34%) and single pantaloon patch (total circumference) (PT-IV) in 35 (26%) patients. The mean follow-up was 3.4+/-1.3 years. RESULTS: The hospital mortality was 17 (12.7%) patients. The mortality in Group I was significantly lower than Group II (P=0.002). The overall actuarial survival at 1, 3 and 5 years follow-up resulted to be 98, 93, and 91.5%, resulting to be significantly higher in Group I (P=0.032). The multivariate analysis revealed the complex TGA (P=0.007), VSD (P=0.032), coronary anomalies (P=0.004), aortic coarctation or hypoplastic aortic arch (P=0.021), left ventricular outflow tract obstruction (LVOTO) or moderate PAS (P=0.041) as strong predictors for poor free-reoperation cumulative survival. A strong inverse correlation was found between the mean trans-pulmonary gradient at follow-up and the age at the operation (r=-0.41, P<0.0001). The univariate analysis revealed the PT-I technique (P=0.002), prior moderate PAS (P=0.0001), and age <1 month (P=0.018) as strong predictors for moderate-to-severe PAS. The neo-AVI incidence was significantly higher in Group II (P=0.011). Predictors for neo-AVI were male sex (P=0.003), preoperative neo-AV Z-score >1 (P<0.001), prior or concomitant operation for aortic coarctation or hypoplastic aortic arch (P=0.001), LV retraining (P=0.003). CONCLUSION: ASO remains the procedure of choice for the treatment of various forms of TGA with acceptable early and later outcome in terms of overall survival and free reoperation. Strong predictors for poor overall free-reoperation survival are complex TGA, VSD, coronary anomalies, aortic coarctation and LVOTO or moderate PAS. The pulmonary artery reconstruction using a single 'pantaloon patch' seems to offer less residual stenosis. Patients with a VSD and a significant mismatch between the neo-aortic root and distal aorta are at a higher risk for developing postoperative neo-AVI.

Abnormalities, Multiple↗

PubMed2003

Difficult laryngoscopy: incidence and predictors in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery versus general surgery patients.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiac surgery patients might have a higher incidence of difficult laryngoscopy than the general population because of older age, dental problems, and obesity. The authors estimated the incidence and predictors of difficult laryngoscopy in coronary artery bypass surgery patients. DESIGN: Prospective, controlled study. SETTING: University setting. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing coronary artery bypass or general surgery. INTERVENTIONS: Two hundred consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft and 444 general surgery patients, all aged >40 years, were compared for the incidence and predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, defined as a grade III or IV view. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Predictors of difficult laryngoscopy were considered mouth opening <4 cm, limited cervical mobility, thyromental distance <6 cm, protruding or partially missing upper teeth, and Mallampati classes 3 and 4. More cases of difficult laryngoscopy were recorded in cardiac patients (10% v 5.2%, p <0.023). The cardiac patients were older, mostly men, and belonged to ASA III-IV risk classes. Mallampati classes 3 and 4 were more frequent in the control group. With univariate analysis, difficult laryngoscopy correlated with 7 variables: older age, ASA-IV risk class, protruding or partially missing upper teeth, limited mouth opening, limited neck movement, thyromental distance <6 cm, and diabetes mellitus. Multivariate analysis adjusted for propensity score identified older age (odds ratio = 1.05/yr, 95% confidence interval = 1.005-1.09, p < 0.03) and limited neck movement (odds ratio = 9.5, 95% confidence interval = 2.2-41, p < 0.003), but not cardiac surgery per se, as independent predictors of difficult laryngoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Difficult laryngoscopy was more frequent in cardiac surgery patients (10% v 5.2%). Older age and limited neck movement, but not cardiac surgery per se, were independent predictors of difficult laryngoscopy.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Trajectories of dynamic predictors of disorder: their meanings and implications.

Developmental psychopathologists are increasingly focused on characterizing heterogeneity of trajectories of psychological disorders across the life course (e.g., developmentally limited vs. chronic forms of disorder). Although the developmental significance of trajectories has been highlighted, there has been little attention to relations between trajectories and their etiologically and clinically relevant time-varying covariates (dynamic predictors). Depending upon the functional relation between a disorder and a dynamic predictor, we expect to see different trajectories of dynamic predictors. Thus, we propose a taxonomy of trajectories of dynamic predictors of course of disorder and provide an initial investigation into its validity. Using a mixed-gender, high-risk sample of young adults followed over 7 years, we identified dynamic predictors that covary with the course of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Based on a logically derived classification to facilitate interpretation of findings, three comparison groups were examined: persons whose AUD "remitted" (n = 33), those with a chronic AUD (n = 29), and nondiagnosers (n = 274). We hypothesized seven patterns of dynamic prediction (stable vulnerability indicators, course trackers, deterioration markers, developmentally specific variables, developmental lag markers, course-referenced variables, and recovery behaviors) and found evidence for five of them. The interpretation of markers of risk for development and course of AUDs and their implications for prevention, early intervention and formal/self-change treatments are discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

[Nurse turnover: A differential analysis of the predictors for intent to change the job and intent to leave the profession].

In a cross-sectional questionnaire study predictors for the intent to leave the nursing profession on the one hand and predictors for the intent to change the job within the nursing profession on the other hand are examined. Data were collected by a national survey of nursing personnel in Germany. The sample of the study consists of 454 nurses working in acute care hospitals. As possible predictors work-related psychological stress, the strain due to illness and behaviour of the patients, psychosomatic pains, organisational, structural as well as sociodemographic variables are taken into account. The relevant predictors are identified by two multiple, linear regression analyses. Psychosomatic pains, low decision latitude, high psychological job demands, short job tenure, the strain due to aggressive and nagging patients, bad cooperation between doctors and nurses, low support by the supervisor and professional status (supervising position) turn out to be predictive for the intent to leave the nursing profession (R2 = 30%). For the intent to change the job within the profession significant predictors are low social support by colleagues, low support by the supervisor, psychosomatic pains, age, short job tenure, and the number of beds in the unit (R2 = 44%). The results indicate, that for the prevention of professional exit early individual measures should be taken where-as the improvement of communication and cooperation among colleagues could keep nurses from job rotation within the profession.

Cross-Sectional Studies↗