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PubMed2001

Prognostic factor studies in oncology: osteosarcoma as a clinical example.

OBJECTIVE: Prognostic factor studies are abundant in oncology. Nevertheless, most of them have very limited impact on clinical practice, in part because many of them have a low statistical power. The importance of statistical power is illustrated using bootstrap resampling of data from a series of osteosarcoma patients. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Osteosarcoma is a rare disease, the incidence being just a few cases per million person-years in the Western World. Very few Phase III studies have been conducted in the disease, and much knowledge on therapeutic progress has come from Phase II studies. This has caused controversy concerning the validity of historical controls, which again has stimulated interest in the identification of prognostic factors in this disease. A literature search in the National Library of Medicine MEDLINE database was performed to identify prognostic factor studies in osteosarcoma published between 1975 and 1998. Monte Carlo methods, so-called bootstrap resampling, are used to investigate the importance of sample size based on survival data for a previously published series of 158 osteosarcomas treated with surgery alone. RESULTS: Most published studies are too small to provide useful information on prognostic factors in osteosarcoma. Three-quarters of the papers reviewed included less than 100 patients with osteosarcoma. More than 20 different potential prognostic factors were included in these papers. Inherent differences between studies and poor reporting hamper a synthesis of information from various studies. The results from the bootstrap resampling illustrate how the majority of published studies would miss even quite significant prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: An effort is needed to improve the design, conduct, and reporting of prognostic studies in oncology.

Bone Neoplasms↗

PubMed1999

Effectiveness of accelerated radiotherapy for patients with inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and borderline prognostic factors without distant metastasis: a retrospective review.

PURPOSE: The standard treatment for patients with unresectable or medically inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and good prognostic factors (e.g., weight loss [WL] < or = 5% and Karnofsky performance status [KPS] > or = 70) is induction chemotherapy followed by definitive radiotherapy to the primary site at 1.8-2.0 Gy per fraction with a total dose of 60-63 Gy to the target volume. Patients with poor prognostic factors usually receive radiotherapy alone, but the fractionation schedule and total dose have not been standardized. To attempt to optimize irradiation doses and schedule, we compared the effectiveness of accelerated radiotherapy (ACRT) alone to 45 Gy at 3 Gy per fraction with standard radiation therapy (STRT) of 60-66 Gy at 2 Gy per fraction in regard to tumor response, local control, distant metastasis, toxicity, and survival. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Fifty-five patients treated with radiation for NSCLC at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center between 1990 and 1994 were identified. All 55 patients had node-positive, and no distant metastasis (N+, M0) of NSCLC. Two cohorts were identified. One cohort (26 patients) had borderline poor prognostic factors (KPS less than 70 but higher than 50, and/or WL of more than 5%) and was treated with radiotherapy alone to 45 Gy over 3 weeks at 3 Gy/fraction (ACRT). The second cohort (29 patients) had significantly better prognostic factors (KPS > or = 70 and WL < or = 5%) and was treated to 60-66 Gy over 6 to 6 1/2 weeks at 2 Gy per fraction (STRT) during the same period. RESULTS: In the first cohort treated by ACRT, the distribution of patients by AJCC stage was IIB 8%, IIIA 19%, and IIIB 73%. Sixty-two percent had KPS <70, and 76% had a WL of >5%. The maximum response rate as determined by chest X-ray was 60% among 45 of 55 patients who were evaluable for response: combined complete responses (20%) and partial responses (40%). Overall survival in these patients was 13% at 2 and 5 years, with a locoregional control rate of 42% and a freedom from distant metastasis rate of 54%. The ACRT cohort treated with 3 Gy per fraction had significantly lower KPS scores (p = 0.003) and greater WL (p = 0.063) than the cohort STRT treated with 2 Gy per fraction. However, treatment results and toxicity were not significantly different between the two cohorts in spite of significantly better prognostic factors in the STRT cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Despite having worse prognostic factors, the cohort treated with radiotherapy alone to 45 Gy at 3 Gy per fraction over 3 weeks (ACRT) had response rates, locoregional control, and overall survival comparable to those in the cohort treated by a total dose of 60-66 Gy at 2 Gy per fraction over 6 to 6 1/2 weeks (STRT). Given that accelerated treatment schedules decrease treatment time and cost less, these may, in the current health care environment, be important factors for health care providers to consider in treating patients who have locally advanced NSCLC and borderline poor prognostic factors.

Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Prognostic factors: guidelines for investigation design and state of the art analytical methods.

The proliferation of putative prognostic factors, derived prognostic indices and computerised prediction of outcome in surgical oncology has led to some confusion over the exact methods available for deriving clinically significant prognostic factors. The realisation that the interaction between factors is often complex and non-linear has led to the development of new statistical techniques. The aim of this article is to review the currently available methods of analysis. A review of the relevant literature available from statistical, medical and computer science sources was performed. Information has been conveyed at a level aimed at producing a practical understanding of the techniques involved rather than their underlying mathematical basis. There are now clear guidelines for the investigation of putative prognostic factors (Table 1). The established role of linear statistical models and prognostic indices remains vitally important for the majority of diseases with many derived prognostic indices having been validated in a prospective fashion. However, in order to improve the delineation of prognostic factors other more complex methods of analysis are now being utilised. Furthermore, the recognition of complex dynamic non-linearity within biological systems has led to the increasing use of non-linear statistical techniques and artificial intelligence. As such it is incumbent upon the modern clinician to be able to understand the basic assumptions required for multivariate analysis and also to realise when alternative statistical techniques should be employed.

Artificial Intelligence↗

PubMed2002

Recurrence-free survival and prognostic factors in resected pN2 non-small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate recurrence pattern and prognostic factors of recurrence-free survival in surgically resected N2 non-small cell lung cancer. METHODS: Between September 1994 and December 1999, 564 patients underwent operation for non-small cell lung cancer at our institute. Of these 564 patients, 101 patients were found to have pathologic N2 disease. Systematic mediastinal lymph node dissection was performed in all these patients. Recurrence was determined and nineteen clinicopathologic prognostic factors were evaluated in relation to recurrence-free survival. RESULTS: Complete resection rate was 83.2% and overall 5-year survival was 23.3%. Locoregional and distant metastasis were detected in 50 of 101 patients (49.5%) during follow-up. Five-year recurrence-free survival was 19.6%. Among 19 clinicopathologic prognostic factors, incomplete resection and non-downstaging after neoadjuvant therapy were unfavorable prognostic factors in univariate analyses. Clinical N2 status, multiple N2 nodes, and cell type of adenocarcinoma showed poor prognosis but were not statistically significant. Postoperative chemotherapy showed good prognosis but was not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed that significant favorable prognostic factors were complete resection and adjuvant chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Complete resection and responsiveness to neoadjuvant therapy were the most important favorable prognostic factors in recurrence-free survival. Postoperative chemotherapy was also a favorable prognostic factor but not statistically significant in recurrence-free survival in pN2 non-small cell lung cancer.

Adult↗

PubMed1991

Analysis of prognostic factors in 766 patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC): the role of sex as a predictor for survival.

The data of 766 patients participating in three German multicentre trials were analysed with regard to the relationship between baseline characteristics and prognosis in small cell lung cancer (SCLC). The central aim of this analysis has been to evaluate the role of gender as an independent prognostic factor in SCLC. The minimum follow-up period for the 652 male and 114 female patients was 36 months. Female patients were shown to have a higher complete remission rate (35% vs 25%), a superior median survival (ms) (12.1 months (mo) vs 9.8 mo), and a favourable 2-year survival rate (2ys) (19% vs 8%) to male ones. Various other prognostic factors have been proved to be significant, such as extent of disease, clinical performance status, and history of smoking, whereas weight loss prior to chemotherapy and age have been less important factors. We have been able to ascertain that women's responses were better than those of male patients independent of any other relevant prognostic variable. Furthermore, results were found to be even more advantageous for female patients with additional favourable prognostic parameters, i.e. for patients with limited disease (ms 15.2 mo vs 12.0 mo; 2ys 29% vs 9%) or with good performance status (ms 13.4 mo vs 10.4 mo; 2ys 24% vs 7%). A most remarkable observation was made in that the favourable prognostic effect of the female gender was restricted to patients aged less than 60 years (ms 13.3 mo vs 10.1 mo; 2ys 26% vs 5%), whereas for older women no advantages over men's results were established (ms 9.3 ml vs 9.1 mo; 2ys 8% vs 7%). A proportion of 32% of female patients with limited disease aged less than 60 years achieved a 3-year survival rate. We conclude (a) that sex constitutes a major prognostic factor in SCLC and is especially useful as a predictor for long-term survival, and (b) that the favourable prognostic value of the female sex is restricted to younger patients.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1998

Serum alpha-fetoprotein surge after the initiation of chemotherapy for non-seminomatous testicular cancer has an adverse prognostic significance.

It has been recognized that the tumour markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) may show a transient elevation after the initiation of chemotherapy in non-seminomatous testicular cancer. We investigated the prognostic importance of these so-called marker surges in a cohort of patients treated with cisplatin combination chemotherapy between 1983 and 1991. A total of 669 patients were studied. Of 352 patients who had an elevated AFP at the start of treatment and for whom we had data at both day 1 and day 8, 101 (29%) had a surge. Of 317 patients for whom we had data for HCG, 80 patients (25%) had a surge. It was found that an AFP surge was a strong adverse prognostic factor for progression [hazard ratio (HR) 2.28, P=0.005]. There was no statistically significant difference in survival (HR 1.65, P=0.13). There was no prognostic significance of a HCG surge, either for progression or for survival. To investigate whether a surge was an independent prognostic factor for progression and survival, multivariate Cox regression models were fitted using the independent prognostic factors for progression and survival and the surge/decline variable. An AFP surge was retained in the final model for progression. A HCG surge was of no prognostic importance for progression or survival. We conclude that an AFP surge has an adverse prognostic significance, independent of pretreatment characteristics.

Antineoplastic Agents↗

PubMed1999

Significance of commonly used prognostic factors differs for children with T cell acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL), as compared to those with B-precursor ALL. A Pediatric Oncology Group (POG) study.

T cell acute lymphocytic leukemia (T-ALL) and B-precursor ALL differ significantly in the clinical characteristics of the patients at presentation and in laboratory-defined characteristics of the leukemic cells. We assessed for pediatric patients with T-ALL the relative importance of prognostic factors previously demonstrated to predict outcome in B-precursor ALL. Presenting clinical and laboratory features were correlated with outcome for 441 children 12 months to 21 years of age with previously untreated T-ALL, registered on the Pediatric Oncology Group (POG) T3 protocol between 1986 and 1992. These T-ALL prognostic factor analyses were then compared to similar analyses for 1993 patients with B-precursor ALL enrolled during the same time period on the POG ALinC 14 protocol. Quantitative interaction between phenotype and each prognostic factor was studied to determine the relative importance of the prognostic factor for each of the two major immunophenotypes. We also analyzed the importance of maturational stage as a T-ALL prognostic factor, using a modified Ludwig definition of maturational stage. We conclude that several of the clinical and laboratory prognostic factors, which are used reliably for B-precursor ALL, are much less predictive in T-ALL (ie age, WBC, consensus risk group, hyperdiploidy, presence of trans- locations and CALLA expression). There was no significant difference between the phenotypes in the prognostic importance of race or gender. Our data demonstrate a significant difference in outcome among the three maturational stages of T-cell ALL, with the intermediate group faring best. Using traditional risk group criteria to stratify patients with T-ALL for therapy may not be appropriate.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

MDR 1 expression is an independent prognostic factor for response and survival in de novo acute myeloid leukaemia.

The Multidrug Resistance gene (MDR 1) is frequently expressed in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). MDR 1 is associated with resistance to chemotherapy in vitro and with a poor response rate in AML. We have investigated the prognostic value of MDR 1 expression in relation to other patient characteristics with respect to response and survival. One hundred and thirty patients aged 0-88 years were treated for de novo AML with standard induction and consolidation chemotherapy. MDR 1 expression was determined by immunocytochemistry. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors for reaching complete remission (CR) and for overall survival from diagnosis, in order to compare MDR 1 with known prognostic factors. Univariate analysis showed that higher MDR 1 expression was an adverse prognostic factor for CR (P<0.001), as was higher age (P<0.001) and unfavourable karyotype (P<0.01). These factors were also negative prognostic factors for overall survival (P<0.001, P<0.05 and P<0.005, respectively). In the multivariate analysis MDR 1 (P<0.001), higher age (P<0.001) and karyotype (P<0.01) were independent adverse prognostic factors for CR as well as for overall survival (P<0.001, P<0.005, P<0.001, respectively). Our data indicate that MDR 1 expression is a disease-related unfavourable prognostic factor which has a significant impact on complete remission and overall survival in AML. Analysis of MDR 1 may be used to determine prognosis in individual patients.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed1997

Disappearance of prognostic significance of histopathological grading of nodular sclerosing Hodgkin's disease for unselected patients, 1972-92.

The importance of the subclassification of nodular sclerosing Hodgkin's disease (NSHD) according to the British National Lymphoma Investigation Group (BNLI) criteria, which had an independent prognostic value for 90 unselected patients diagnosed in our region in the period 1972-83, is still equivocal. Because survival of patients with Hodgkin's disease improved in our region during the period 1972-92 and because treatment may modify prognostic factors, we re-evaluated the prognostic value of NSHD subclassification up to 1993. A registry-based study was performed with data on all 345 Hodgkin patients diagnosed in the period 1972-92. Available histology was reviewed. The prognostic value of nodular sclerosis (NS) grading was evaluated for two periods, 1972-80 and 1981-92, designated as the seventies and the eighties, respectively. NSHD was diagnosed in 57% (n = 195) of all registered cases of Hodgkin's disease, 17 of which could not be evaluated. NS stage I (NSI; 73%) and NS stage II (NSII; 27%) patients exhibited the same distribution of stage during both periods; NSII patients were older than NSI patients in the seventies. NSII patients presented with an elevated ESR and B symptoms more frequently during the eighties and subsequently received combined modality therapy more often. The crude 5-year survival rate for grade I v grade II NSHD was 85% v 38% (P < 0.05) for the seventies and 84% v 83% for the eighties. Subclassification of NSHD was not an independent prognostic factor after adjustment for age, stage, gender, B symptoms and ESR, though it remained of independent prognostic value when ESR was left out of the Cox model. The most important factors adversely influencing survival were advanced age, advanced stage and male gender. The independent prognostic value of the subclassification of NSHD has disappeared, as reflected by the clearly improved survival of NSII patients, probably due to more intensive treatment in the eighties, whereas survival of NSI patients did not changes.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

The prognostic value of different forms of prostate specific antigen and their ratios in patients with prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic value for patient survival of different forms of PSA and ratios thereof, before treatment for prostate cancer, by considering the forms and ratios both as independent markers and by comparing them with other commonly used prognostic markers, e.g. tumour grade, local stage (T-stage) and absence or presence of skeletal metastases (M-stage). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Blood samples were collected consecutively from men diagnosed with prostate cancer at our department in 1988. From this group, 66 men were followed until death, or for >/=9 years. Twenty-five patients died from their prostate cancer and 21 from other causes during the follow-up period. Forty-eight patients received hormonal treatment, whereas 18 remained untreated or received no treatment for their cancer before they died from other causes. Assays measuring the serum levels of free prostate specific antigen (fPSA), PSA complexed to alpha1-antichymotrypsin (PSA-ACT), and total PSA (tPSA) were used to calculate the percentage of free to total PSA (f/tPSA) fPSA/ACT and ACT/tPSA at diagnosis. Based on the initial levels or ratios of the PSA forms, the patients were divided into three numerically comparable groups (tertiles) for survival analysis. Prognostic factors predicting patient survival were evaluated using univariate (Kaplan-Meier life-tables with the log-rank test) and multivariate techniques (Cox proportional hazards regression model). RESULTS: Univariate analysis using the log-rank test showed that the serum level of each molecular form of PSA, i.e. tPSA (P=0.001), PSA-ACT (P<0.001) and fPSA (P<0.001), as well as grade (P<0.001), T-stage (P=0.00355) and M-stage (P<0.001), provided statistically significant prognostic information. Log-rank tests showed that none of the ratios, i.e. f/tPSA, fPSA/ACT and ACT/tPSA, were informative of prognosis (P>0.05). However, in a multivariate analysis regression model, not only M-stage (risk ratio 4.2; P=0. 026) and grade (risk ratio 2.6; P=0.022), but also f/tPSA (risk ratio 1.8; P=0.037), provided significant prognostic information. CONCLUSION: The values of tPSA, fPSA and PSA-ACT, as well as grade and T- and M-stage, are all independent prognostic factors of prostate cancer survival. In a multivariate analysis, not only M-stage and grade but also f/tPSA provided significant prognostic information.

Aged↗

PubMed1993

Testing the validity of a prognostic classification in patients with surgically optimal ovarian carcinoma: a 15-year review.

A retrospectively designed classification using stage, residuum and a variable which combines prognostic information from both grade and histology (histology-grade variable) has been used at our institution to predict prognosis, and choose therapy in patients with ovarian carcinoma, stages I-III having no or small residuum. In this study, multivariate analysis of prognostic factors were performed over two time periods: Group 1 (1971-1978), contains the patients from which the original classification was derived, and Group 2 (1979-1985), contains a different cohort of patients who are used to test the validity and reproducibility of the original classification. Multivariate analysis showed that the prognostic significance of two variables changed over the two study periods: tumor grade, and residuum. It was found that in the ideal combination of grade and histologic type, when used in conjunction with stage and residuum in a prognostic classification, was unique to each patient cohort. Because of these changes, new and more accurate prognostic classifications were derived for Group 2. However, when all classifications were examined, (including the original), the differences in their ability to stratify patients into risk categories was negligible, and there was no major advantage to using one classification over another for clinical applications. Thus, the retrospectively derived prognostic classification using grade, instead of a combined histology-grade variable, in conjunction with the other significant prognostic factors (stage and residuum), is preferred for prospective application, and for its simplicity.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2003

Prognostic factors for low-grade gliomas.

Low-grade gliomas are a heterogenous group of diseases characterized by relatively slow-growing primary brain tumors of astrocytic and/or oligodendroglial origin. Many patients present with easily controlled seizures and remain stable for years, whereas others progress rapidly to higher-grade tumors. Several studies have retrospectively investigated tumor-, patient-, and treatment-related prognostic factors in this patient population. Tumor histology, grade, location, contrast enhancement, and molecular markers have been identified as prognostic factors for survival. Likewise, patient age, performance status, and seizure history are patient-dependent prognostic factors. However, although patients who undergo surgical resection and receive adjuvant radiotherapy tend to have improved survival, treatment-dependent prognostic factors have yet to be definitively identified. Recursive partitioning and multivariant analyses have identified a class of patients with good prognosis. Younger patients with good performance status, non-contrast-enhancing tumors (<5 cm), and tumors of oligodendroglial or mixed-oligoastrocytic subtype have improved survival. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer has recently developed a prognostic score based on identified prognostic factors to assist in the management of low-grade gliomas. For patients with a favorable (low-risk) score, treatment with radiotherapy or chemotherapy treatment should be withheld until tumor progression. For patients with a high-risk score, treatment at diagnosis may be indicated. However, other than surgery, the optimal types and sequence of therapies are not yet established. Improvements in defining prognostic factors will assist in low-grade glioma management.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Angiogenesis is an independent prognostic factor in malignant mesothelioma.

Angiogenesis is essential for tumour growth beyond 1 to 2 mm in diameter. The clinical relevance of angiogenesis, as assessed by microvessel density (MVD), is unclear in malignant mesothelioma (MM). Immunohistochemistry was performed on 104 archival, paraffin-embedded, surgically resected MM samples with an anti-CD34 monoclonal antibody, using the Streptavidin-biotin complex immunoperoxidase technique. 93 cases were suitable for microvessel quantification. MVD was obtained from 3 intratumoural hotspots, using a Chalkley eyepiece graticule at x 250 power. MVD was correlated with survival by Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analysis. A stepwise, multivariate Cox model was used to compare MVD with known prognostic factors and the EORTC and CALGB prognostic scoring systems. Overall median survival from the date of diagnosis was 5.0 months. Increasing MVD was a poor prognostic factor in univariate analysis (P = 0.02). Independent indicators of poor prognosis in multivariate analysis were non-epithelial cell type (P = 0.002), performance status > 0 (P = 0.003) and increasing MVD (P = 0.01). In multivariate Cox analysis, MVD contributed independently to the EORTC (P = 0.006), but not to the CALGB (P = 0.1), prognostic groups. Angiogenesis, as assessed by MVD, is a poor prognostic factor in MM, independent of other clinicopathological variables and the EORTC prognostic scoring system. Further work is required to assess the prognostic importance of angiogenic regulatory factors in this disease.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1995

Prognostic Factors in Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Extent of disease and clinical performance status have been used traditionally for prognostic stratification of patients with small cell lung cancer. A plethora of other prognostic attributes reflecting host factors, tumor factors, and serological and hematological parameters have been described over the last decade. Attempts to assess the contribution of the latter attributes to prognostication in small cell lung cancer have lead to the formation of multivariate prognostic models. These models invariably describe prognostic groupings that are not identified by the conventional two-stage classification currently in use. Consensus for application of a new prognostic classification is evolving with analysis of prognostic data from diverse clinical centers.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1989

[Proliferation index, axillary lymph node status, hormone receptors and age as prognostic factors in primary breast cancer].

A total of 233 primary carcinomas of the breast (n = 68 nodal negative and n = 165 nodal positive) of 77 woman patients of less than 50 years of age and pf 156 women patients of 50 years of age or older were examined for the prognostic significance of a proliferation index (in vitro chemoresistance assay). The prognostic significance of the proliferation index (high vs low proliferation) is compared with other prognostic factors that have already been in clinical use (age, axillary lymph node status, oestrogen and progesterone receptor status). The total median observation period was 4.8 years (3-9.1 years). Determination of the proliferation index proved to be the most important prognostic factor both for premenopausal and postmenopausal, nodal negative and nodal positive primary tumours when assessing the total survival time and the time that remains free from recurrences. A simultaneous assessment of low proliferation index and positive hormone receptor as a so-called low-risk situation shows in comparison to a high-risk situation (high proliferation index, negative receptor status) the most pronounced differences. For premenopausal women (younger than 50 years of age) the hormone receptor status has no prognostic significance as far as our group of patients is concerned, whereas for women of 50 years of age or older the receptor status is of great prognostic relevance. Besides the lymph node status, the proliferation index shows in a Cox regression model the greatest prognostic importance for the further course of a primary carcinoma of the breast.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Age Factors↗

PubMed2000

Prognostic value of Ki-67 expression in localized cutaneous malignant melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The proliferative activity of some tumors is related to the development of metastatic disease and survival. Thus it could be used as a potential prognostic variable. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic value of the Ki-67 index and of a "proliferation-based prognostic index" (PBPI, derived as tumor thickness x Ki-67 index/100) in localized cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). METHODS: The Ki-67 index (percent of total tumor nuclei) was determined in a series of 84 localized CMMs, with the use of the alkaline phosphatase-antialkaline phosphatase labeling method in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded material, and was correlated with other prognostic variables. Survival analysis was performed to determine whether the Ki-67 index and the PBPI could be predictive of metastatic spread or recurrent disease. A stratified analysis of these two parameters according to the tumor thickness was done. RESULTS: An association among the Ki-67 index and location, Clark level, tumor thickness and stage, and prognostic index was detected. Increased Ki-67 index and PBPI were associated with poorer overall survival (P =.03 and P <.0001, respectively) and disease-free survival (P =.01 and P <.0001, respectively). However, after stratification for thickness, only the PBPI showed independent prognostic significance, restricted to tumors thicker than 4 mm (P =. 03). CONCLUSION: The determination of the PBPI in CMM conveys prognostic information for localized thick (>4 mm) CMM, identifying two groups of patients with distinct outcome.

Biomarkers↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic factors for perceived pain and function at one-year follow-up in primary care patients with neck pain.

PURPOSE: To identify prognostic factors for perceived pain and function with focus at one-year follow-up in primary care patients treated for non-specific neck pain. METHODS: A prospective study was performed including 193 neck pain patients. Before and after treatment period, and 12 months after the start date for treatment, patients completed a questionnaire including background data and aspects of pain, function and general health. Linear multiple regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors with the dependent variables Oswestry score and pain intensity at 12-month follow-up. Response rate 81%. RESULTS: At 12-month follow-up, Oswestry score identified four prognostic factors: pain intensity; well-being; expectations of treatment; and duration of current episode. Adjusted R2 for the model was 0.32, and 20% of the patients had three of the four prognostic factors at entry, indicating risk of poor outcome. The dependent variable pain intensity revealed three prognostic factors: Oswestry score; duration of current episode; and similar problem during the previous five years. Adjusted R2 was 0.24, and 60% of the patients had two of the three prognostic factors at entry, indicating risk of poor outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Different prognostic factors (with the exception of duration of current episode) were identified by the two outcome variables. Thus the results suggest that it should be taken into account whether an impairment or disability outcome is used.

Adult↗

PubMed1991

Prognosis and breast cancer. Recognition of lethal and favorable prognostic types.

Assignment of breast cancer patients to specific prognostic groups has been a relatively empty exercise until the recent acceptance of the effectiveness of systemic chemotherapy. The previous question of who should be so treated has changed in North America to a question of who should not be so treated. The availability of intensive chemotherapy for the worst prognostic groups as well as efficacious, low-toxicity adjuvant chemotherapy has made prognostication mandatory. The current major question is which women with breast cancer will not benefit from chemotherapy. We are actually much better at prognostication than many studies and the current broad search for new prognostic markers would indicate. The assignment of excellent prognosis categories by defined special histologic types or grade of breast cancer as well as other measures recognize women with survival approaching or equaling the general population. Likewise, extremely poor prognosis may be recognized in 20% to 40% of women with breast cancer by the presence of extensive mitoses or high proliferation index (by any modality) and poor differentiation (highest grade). Combined tumor size and nodal status data with high-grade indicates that women with these indicators will die within 2 to 3 years with as high as 80% certainty. The surgical pathologist still determines if cancer is present and must also determine if the tumor is in situ or invasive, its type or grade if invasive, and the extent of in situ component. Considering the diminution in overall size of cancers detected by modern techniques, it is clear that validation of newer prognostic variables will be more useful and will allow more separate determinations if adapted to tissue sections rather than tissue homogenates. The many measures of these carcinomas, such as size and nodal status, make multiparametric assessment of putative prognostic markers mandatory.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗