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Assessment of cardiac preload by indicator dilution and transoesophageal echocardiography.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Assessment of cardiac preload is of major importance in the management of critically ill patients. Echocardiographic determined left ventricular end-diastolic area and indicator dilution derived intrathoracic blood volume are used as surrogates for cardiac preload. However, no controlled comparison studies on the relationship between induced changes in end-diastolic area and intrathoracic blood volume and concomitant changes in stroke volume index are available. METHODS: The effects of a change in body position on these variables were investigated in 10 anaesthetized patients. RESULTS: Intrathoracic blood volume and end-diastolic area decreased by 18 +/- 11% and 27 +/- 13% respectively. Stroke volume index concomitantly decreased by 19 +/- 11%. Correlation analysis revealed a close relation between stroke volume index and intrathoracic blood volume (r=0.75) and end-diastolic area (r=0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Within the observed range of data, intrathoracic blood volume and end-diastolic area are equivalent indices of cardiac preload.

Adult↗

Stochastic neural network model for spontaneous bursting in hippocampal slices.

A biologically plausible, stochastic, neural network model that exhibits spontaneous transitions between a low-activity (normal) state and a high-activity (epileptic) state is studied by computer simulation. Brief excursions of the network to the high-activity state lead to spontaneous population bursting similar to the behavior observed in hippocampal slices bathed in a high-potassium medium. Although the variability of interburst intervals in this model is due to stochasticity, first return maps of successive interburst intervals show trajectories that resemble the behavior expected near unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) of systems exhibiting deterministic chaos. Simulations of the effects of the application of chaos control, periodic pacing, and anticontrol to the network model yield results that are qualitatively similar to those obtained in experiments on hippocampal slices. Estimation of the statistical significance of UPOs through surrogate data analysis also leads to results that resemble those of similar analysis of data obtained from slice experiments and human epileptic activity. These results suggest that spontaneous population bursting in hippocampal slices may be a manifestation of stochastic bistable dynamics, rather than of deterministic chaos. Our results also question the reliability of some of the recently proposed, UPO-based, statistical methods for detecting determinism and chaos in experimental time-series data.

Action Potentials↗

Trial design and reporting standards for intra-arterial cerebral thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The National Institutes of Health (NIH) estimates that stroke costs now exceed 45 billion dollars per year. Stroke is the third leading cause of death and one of the leading causes of adult disability in North America, Europe, and Asia. A number of well-designed randomized stroke trials and case series have now been reported in the literature to evaluate the safety and efficacy of thrombolytic therapy for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke. These stroke trials have included intravenous studies, intra-arterial studies, and combinations of both, as well as use of mechanical devices for removal of thromboemboli and of neuroprotectant drugs, alone or in combination with thrombolytic therapy. At this time, the only therapy demonstrated to improve outcomes from an acute stroke is thrombolysis of the clot responsible for the ischemic event. There is room for improvement in stroke lysis studies. Divergent criteria, with disparate reporting standards and definitions, have made direct comparisons between stroke trials difficult to compare and contrast in terms of overall patient outcomes and efficacy of treatment. There is a need for more uniform definitions of multiple variables such as collateral flow, degree of recanalization, assessment of perfusion, and infarct size. In addition, there are multiple unanswered questions that require further investigation, in particular, questions as to which patients are best treated with thrombolysis. One of the most important predictors of clinical success is time to treatment, with early treatment of <3 hours for intravenous tissue plasminogen activator and <6 hours for intra-arterial thrombolysis demonstrating significant improvement in terms of 90-day clinical outcome and reduced cerebral hemorrhage. It is possible that improved imaging that identifies the ischemic penumbra and distinguishes it from irreversibly infarcted tissue will more accurately select patients for therapy than duration of symptoms. There are additional problems in the assessment of patients eligible for thrombolysis. These include being able to predict whether a particular site of occlusion can be successfully revascularized, predict an individual patient's prognosis and outcome after revascularization, and in particular, to predict the development of intracerebral hemorrhage, with and without clinical deterioration. It is not clear to assume that achieving immediate flow restoration due to thrombolytic therapy implies clinical success and improved outcome. There is no simple correlation between recanalization and observed clinical benefit in all ischemic stroke patients, because other interactive variables, such as collateral circulation, the ischemic penumbra, lesion location and extent, time to treatment, and hemorrhagic conversion, are all interrelated to outcome. METHODS: This article was written under the auspices of the Technology Assessment Committees for both the American Society of Interventional and Therapeutic Neuroradiology and the Society of Interventional Radiology. The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for the ongoing study design of trials of intra-arterial cerebral thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke. It serves as a background for the intra-arterial thrombolytic trials in North America and Europe, discusses limitations of thrombolytic therapy, defines predictors for success, and offers the rationale for the different considerations that might be important during the design of a clinical trial for intra-arterial thrombolysis in acute stroke. Included in this guidance document are suggestions for uniform reporting standards for such trials. These definitions and standards are mainly intended for research trials; however, they should also be helpful in clinical practice and applicable to all publications. This article serves to standardize reporting terminology and includes pretreatment assessment, neurologic evaluation with the NIH Stroke Scale score, imaging evaluation, occlusion sites, perfusion grades, follow-up imaging studies, and neurologic assessments. Moreover, previously used and established definitions for patient selection, outcome assessment, and data analysis are provided, with some possible variations on specific end points. This document is therefore targeted to help an investigator to critically review the scales and scores used previously in stroke trials. This article also seeks to standardize patient selection for treatment based on neurologic condition at presentation, baseline imaging studies, and utilization of standardized inclusion/exclusion criteria. It defines outcomes from therapy in phase I, II, and III studies. Statistical approaches are presented for analyzing outcomes from prospective, randomized trials with both primary and secondary variable analysis. A discussion on techniques for angiography, intra-arterial thrombolysis, anticoagulation, adjuvant therapy, and patient management after therapy is given, as well as recommendations for posttreatment evaluation, duration of follow-up, and reporting of disability outcomes. Imaging assessment before and after treatment is given. In the past, noncontrast CT brain scans were used as the initial screening examination of choice to exclude cerebral hemorrhage. However, it is now possible to quantify the volume of early infarct by using contiguous, discrete (nonhelical) images of 5 mm. In addition, CT angiography by helical scanning and 100 mL of intravenous contrast agent can be used expeditiously to obtain excellent vascular anatomy, define the occlusion site, obtain 2D and 3D reformatted vascular images, grade collateral blood flow, and perform tissue-perfusion studies to define transit times of a contrast bolus through specific tissue beds and regions of interest in the brain. Dynamic CT perfusion scans to assess the whole dynamics of a contrast agent transit curve can now be routinely obtained at many hospitals involved in these studies. The rationale, current status of this technology, and potential use in future clinical trials are given. Many hospitals are also performing MR brain studies at baseline in addition to, or instead of, CT scans. MRI has a high sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of ischemic stroke in the first several hours from symptom onset, identifies arterial occlusions, and characterizes ischemic pathology noninvasively. Case series have demonstrated and characterized the early detection of intraparenchymal hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage by MRI. Echo planar images, used for diffusion MRI and, in particular, perfusion MRI are inherently sensitive for the susceptibility changes caused by intraparenchymal blood products. Consequently, MRI has replaced CT to rule out acute hemorrhage in some centers. The rationale and the potential uses of MR scanning are provided. In addition to established criteria, technology is continuously evolving, and imaging techniques have been introduced that offer new insights into the pathophysiology of acute ischemic stroke. For example, a better patient stratification might be possible if CT and/or MRI brain scans are used not only as exclusion criteria but also to provide individual inclusion and exclusion criteria based on tissue physiology. Imaging techniques might also be used as a surrogate outcome measure in future thrombolytic trials. The context of a controlled study is the best environment to validate emerging imaging and treatment techniques. The final section details reporting standards for complications and adverse outcomes; defines serious adverse events, adverse events, and unanticipated adverse events; and describes severity of complications and their relation to treatment groups. Recommendations are made regarding comparing treatment groups, randomization and blinding, intention-to-treat analysis, quality-of-life analysis, and efficacy analysis. This document concludes with an analysis of general costs associated with therapy, a discussion regarding entry criteria, outcome measures, and the variability of assessment of the different stroke scales currently used in the literature is also featured. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, this article serves to provide a more uniform set of criteria for clinical trials and reporting outcomes used in designing stroke trials involving intra-arterial thrombolytic agents, either alone or in combination with other therapies. It is anticipated that by having a more uniform set of reporting standards, more meaningful analysis of the data and the literature will be able to be achieved.

Acute Disease↗

Wavelet analysis of scaling properties of gastric electrical activity.

We present a novel approach to the analysis of fluctuations in human myoelectrical gastric activity measured noninvasively from the surface of the abdomen. The time intervals between successive maxima of the wavelet transformed quasi-periodic electrogastrographic waveform define the gastric rate variability (GRV) time series. By using the method of average wavelet coefficients, the statistical fluctuations in the GRV signal in healthy individuals are determined to scale in time. Such scaling was previously found in a variety of physiological phenomena, all of which support the hypothesis that physiological dynamics utilize fractal time series. We determine the scaling index in a cohort of 17 healthy individuals to be 0.80 +/- 0.14, which compared with a set of surrogate data is found to be significant at the level P < 0.01. We also determined that the dynamical pattern, so evident in the spectrum of average wavelet coefficients of the GRV time series of healthy individuals, is significantly reduced in a cohort of systemic sclerosis patients having a scaling index 0.64 +/- 0.17. These results imply that the long-term memory in GRV time series is significantly reduced from healthy individuals to those with systemic sclerosis. Consequently, this disease degrades the complexity of the underlying gastrointestinal control system and this degradation is manifest in the loss of scaling in the GRV time series.

Adult↗

Tegaserod does not alter fasting or meal-induced biliary tract motility.

OBJECTIVE: Tegaserod is a 5-HT(4) receptor partial agonist that increases peristaltic activity of the intestinal tract. It is approved for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C). IBS is a chronic gastrointestinal disorder of function that is reported to be associated with an increased incidence of abdominal surgery including cholecystectomy. The effect of tegaserod on nongut digestive organs, such as the gallbladder and biliary tract, has not been previously investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effects of tegaserod on gallbladder contractility and on functional status of the sphincter of Oddi during both the interdigestive and the digestive periods in healthy female subjects and in female patients with IBS-C. METHODS: During a 6-wk, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study, gallbladder contractility and concomitant change in luminal diameter of the common hepatic duct (CHD) and the common bile duct (CBD, both proximal and distal) in response to a standard liquid meal were quantified using real-time ultrasonography. Changes in luminal diameter of the CHD and the CBD were used as a surrogate marker for sphincter of Oddi function. Ultrasound measurements were conducted every 15 min from 45 min before, to 60 min after the test meal to observe the impact of tegaserod on gallbladder volume and any concomitant change in the diameters of the CHD and the CBD that developed in response to gallbladder contraction. The ultrasound measurements of gallbladder contractility, along with the CHD and the CBD diameters, were repeated after each of the two 2-wk periods of treatment with tegaserod or placebo. The recommended dose of tegaserod (6 mg b.i.d.) for IBS-C patients was used in healthy female subjects (n = 13) and female patients with IBS-C (n = 20). Twice this dose (12 mg b.i.d.) was also evaluated in an additional 20 female patients with IBS-C. Statistical evaluations were conducted using a two-sided analysis of variance (ANOVA). RESULTS: Gallbladder contractility variables including ejection fraction, ejection rate and ejection period, fasting and residual volume, and maximal emptying, were similar after 2 wk of treatment with tegaserod 6 mg b.i.d. and placebo in healthy female subjects and female patients with IBS-C. There were no significant changes in the luminal diameters of the CHD or the CBD after tegaserod compared to placebo in any cohort. Additionally, no significant dilation (> or =7 mm in diameter) of the CHD or CBD was observed during maximal gallbladder emptying. Similar results were also observed when tegaserod was given at 12 mg b.i.d. in patients with IBS-C. Tegaserod treatment had no significant effect on plasma CCK concentration in response to the test meal. No significant abdominal pain or unexpected adverse events were reported during the study. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed no significant pharmacodynamic effect of tegaserod on gallbladder contractility or on CBD and CHD diameters as a surrogate marker of sphincter of Oddi function during both the interdigestive (fasting) and the digestive (postprandial) periods in healthy female subjects and female patients with IBS-C.

Biliary Tract↗

Optimizing genetic ancestry adjustment in DNA methylation studies: a comparative analysis of approaches.

BACKGROUND: Genetic ancestry is an important factor to account for in DNA methylation studies because genetic variation influences DNA methylation patterns. One approach uses principal components (PCs) calculated from CpG sites that overlap with common SNPs to adjust for ancestry when genotyping data is not available. However, this method does not remove technical and biological variations, such as sex and age, prior to calculating the PCs. The first PC is therefore often associated with factors other than ancestry. METHODS: We developed and adapted the adapted EpiAnceR+&#x2009;approach, which includes (1) residualizing the CpG data overlapping with common SNPs for control probe PCs, sex, age, and cell type proportions to remove the effects of technical and biological factors, and (2) integrating the residualized data with genotype calls from the SNP probes (commonly referred to as rs probes) present on the arrays, before calculating PCs and evaluated the clustering ability and relationship to genetic ancestry. RESULTS: The PCs generated by EpiAnceR+&#x2009;led to improved clustering for repeated samples from the same individual and stronger associations with genetic ancestry groups predicted from genotype information compared to the original approach. EpiAnceR+&#x2009;also outperformed the use of DNA methylation PCs or surrogate variables for ancestry adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the EpiAnceR+&#x2009;approach improves the adjustment for genetic ancestry in DNA methylation studies. EpiAnceR+&#x2009;can be integrated into existing R pipelines for commercial methylation arrays, such as 450&#xa0;K, EPIC v1, and EPIC v2. The code is available on GitHub ( https://github.com/KiraHoeffler/EpiAnceR ).

DNA Methylation↗

Poincaré plot indexes of heart rate variability capture dynamic adaptations after haemodialysis in chronic renal failure patients.

The hypothesis that the Poincaré plot indexes of heart rate variability (HRV) detect dynamic changes after haemodialysis (HD) over the HRV in haemodynamically stable chronic renal failure (CRF) patients was examined. Minor axis (SD1), major axis (SD2) and the SD1/SD2 ratio were compared against standard HRV indexes in time and frequency domain, in a group of healthy subjects and in a group of CRF patients before and after HD. These indexes were estimated from Poincaré plots reconstructed with lags of one, two and four heartbeats. The surrogate data analysis technique was applied in order to discern if only random components or linear features of HRV contribute to its dynamics. None of the standard linear HRV indexes changed after HD. The Poincaré plot indexes measured from CRF patients were smaller than the ones measured from healthy subjects. In CRF patients the SD1/SD2 ratio decreased after HD, when a lag of four heartbeats was used (0.68 +/- 0.19 before HD versus 0.55 +/- 0.12 after HD, P<0.05). The presence of deterministic components in HRV were confirmed for all measures of the SD1/SD2 ratio. Moreover, a loss of non-linear components after HD was detected by the surrogate analysis over the SD1/SD2 ratio with a lag of four heartbeats. In conclusion, the SD1/SD2 ratio measured at lag of 4 heartbeats capture dynamic changes after HD upon the HRV of CRF patients that are not solely related to linear autocorrelations of HRV. This suggests that the SD1/SD2 ratio reflects non-linear information of HRV.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

A null mutant of Synechococcus sp. PCC7942 deficient in the sulfolipid sulfoquinovosyl diacylglycerol.

The sulfolipid 6-sulfo-alpha-D-quinovosyldiacylglycerol is associated with the thylakoid membranes of many photosynthetic organisms. Previously, genes involved in sulfolipid biosynthesis have been characterized only in the purple bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides. Unlike plants and cyanobacteria, photosynthesis in this bacterium is anoxygenic due to the lack of a water splitting photosystem II. To test the function of sulfolipid in an organism with oxygenic photosynthesis, we isolated and inactivated a sulfolipid gene of the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7942. Extensive analysis of the sulfolipid-deficient null mutant revealed subtle changes in photosynthesis related biochemistry of O2. In addition, a slight increase in the variable room temperature chlorophyll fluorescence yield was observed. Regardless of these changes, it seems unlikely that sulfolipid is an essential constituent of a functional competent water oxidase or the core antenna complex of photosystem II. However, reduced growth of the mutant under phosphate-limiting conditions supports the hypothesis that sulfolipid acts as a surrogate for anionic phospholipids under phosphate-limiting growth conditions.

Amino Acid Sequence↗

Catecholamine storage vesicle protein expression in genetic hypertension.

Chromogranin A expression is heritable in humans, and both plasma chromogranin A concentration and its releasable adrenal and sympathetic neuronal pools are augmented in established essential (hereditary) hypertension. To evaluate chromogranin A further as a simpler or "intermediate phenotype" in the complex trait of hypertension, we studied chromogranin A expression in the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR), a rodent model of essential hypertension. Both plasma (p < 0.0001) and adrenal medullary (p = 0.003 to p < 0.0001) chromogranin A were elevated in the SHR, even at the earliest stages (3-4 weeks of age). In the adult adrenal gland, both chromogranin A (p=0.005) and norepinephrine (p=0.011) were increased in the SHR, while dopamine beta-hydroxylase activity was diminished (p < 0.0001). Chromogranin A mRNA expression was also elevated in the SHR adrenal medulla (p = 0.017). Differences in chromogranin A processing were not noted between SHR and Wistar Kyoto control (WKY) rats. In an SHR x WKY genetic intercross, control of the adrenal chromogranin A phenotype by a single major locus was suggested by comparison of phenotypic variance of the F2 vs F1 generations, and by bimodal frequency histogram (3:1 ratio), confirmed by maximum likelihood analysis (chi2 = 74.6, p < 0.000001) in the F2 generation. However, microsatellite alleles at a surrogate locus (Ighe) 12.7 cM from chromogranin A (Chga), on rat chromosome 6, failed to co-segregate with blood pressure in an F2 generation (F = 0.06, p = 0.94). In another rodent model of hereditary hypertension, the genetically hypertensive mouse (BPH/2), adrenal chromogranin A (p=0.018) and norepinephrine (p = 0.004) were actually diminished. We conclude that over-expression of chromogranin A is a variable feature of mammalian genetic hypertension. In one rodent model (the SHR), over-expression of chromogranin A is largely controlled by a single genetic locus, but the chromogranin A locus itself is not directly linked to determination of the blood pressure elevation of the SHR.

Adrenal Medulla↗

The staging of sepsis: understanding heterogeneity in treatment efficacy.

Human sepsis is an intrinsically complex disease. Populations of patients enrolled into clinical trials of novel sepsis therapies are notoriously heterogeneous with respect to the inciting cause of their disease, the co-morbid conditions that define its course, and the acute severity of their initial presentation. This heterogeneity is reflected in strikingly variable mortality risks across studies, and probably, though less clearly-established, in variable response rates to a given intervention. In an accompanying article in this issue of Critical Care, Macias and colleagues argue that the effectiveness of adjuvant sepsis therapies is not dependent on the baseline mortality risk, since the few "positive" trials that have been published show widely divergent placebo mortality rates. But this analysis assumes that biologically distinct interventions will be equally efficacious in clinically diverse populations, and confuses severity as a population descriptor with severity as a surrogate measure of a biologic state in an individual patient. In a pivotal trial of recombinant human activated protein C (rhAPC) in patients with severe sepsis, an aggregate 6% mortality decrement appeared to be the result of negligible efficacy in the least severely ill patients, and considerably greater efficacy in those who were at greatest risk of dying. A larger follow-up study recruiting low risk patients confirmed this impression, showing a convincing absence of benefit in patients who clinicians judged to be less severely ill. If we accept Macias' argument, we are led to the conclusion that rhAPC is of limited use in the management of severe sepsis. On the other hand, if we view severity as a crude surrogate for a particular pathologic state, we would shift our focus to better defining those populations most likely to benefit from intervention, including patients who may not have met criteria for entry in the original PROWESS trial--those with disseminated intravascular coagulation or acute organ dysfunction from causes other than sepsis. Staging systems that stratify heterogeneous patient populations by risk and by potential to benefit from intervention have proven to be essential to the development of multimodal adjuvant treatment for cancer. They will be no less important in the optimal management of sepsis.

APACHE↗

Predicting the distribution of tsetse flies in West Africa using temporal Fourier processed meteorological satellite data.

An example is given of the application of remotely-sensed, satellite data to the problems of predicting the distribution and abundance of tsetse flies in West Africa. The distributions of eight species of tsetse, Glossina morsitans, G. longipalpis, G. palpalis, G. tachinoides, G. pallicera, G. fusca, G. nigrofusca and G. medicorum in Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso, were analysed using discriminant analysis applied to temporal Fourier-processed surrogates for vegetation, temperature and rainfall derived from meteorological satellites. The vegetation and temperature surrogates were the normalized difference vegetation index and channel-4-brightness temperature, respectively, from the advanced, very-high-resolution radiometers on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's polar-orbiting, meteorological satellites. For rainfall the surrogate was the Cold-Cloud-Duration (CCD) index derived from the geostationary, Meteosat satellite series. The presence or absence of tsetse was predicted with accuracies ranging from 67%-100% (mean = 82.3%). A further data-set, for the abundance of five tsetse species across the northern part of Côte d'Ivoire (an area of about 140,000 km2), was analysed in the same way, and fly-abundance categories predicted with accuracies of 30%-100% (mean = 73.0%). The thermal data appeared to be the most useful of the predictor variables, followed by vegetation and rainfall indices. Refinements of the analytical technique and the problems of extending the predictions through space and time are discussed.

Africa, Western↗

Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide levels in predicting hemodynamic perturbations after heart transplantation despite preserved left ventricular systolic function.

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the association of peripheral B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels with clinical symptoms and central hemodynamic and echocardiographic measures in cardiac transplantation. BNP reflects ventricular wall stress and correlates with severity of heart failure. No previous investigation has comprehensively assessed the rapid bedside BNP assay for predicting hemodynamic measures of cardiac allograft function in heart transplantation. We evaluated BNP levels using a rapid point-of-care assay in 87 stable cardiac transplant recipients who had 237 consecutive measurements along with endomyocardial biopsy, right-sided cardiac catheterization, and echocardiography. Using median tendencies, 2 groups were identified: the low BNP group (n = 116, BNP <150 pg/ml) and the high BNP group (n = 121, BNP >/=150 pg/ml). The high BNP group had increased right atrial pressures, higher pulmonary artery systolic pressures, pulmonary capillary wedge pressures, and lower cardiac index. Besides hemodynamic variables, the presence of right ventricular dysfunction (p = 0.05) and significant tricuspid regurgitation (p = 0.003) were associated with higher BNP levels. Independent predictors of BNP levels on multivariate analysis included elevated pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, lower cardiac index, and symptoms of dyspnea and fatigue. This initial investigation establishes the accuracy of a point-of-care BNP assay in predicting cardiopulmonary hemodynamic aberrations despite preserved left ventricular systolic function in heart transplant recipients. Rapid bedside BNP analysis may provide a noninvasive surrogate method for the comprehensive assessment of cardiac allograft function and hemodynamics in heart transplantation.

Adult↗

Flight performance and competitive displacement of hummingbirds across elevational gradients.

Hummingbirds, with their impressive flight ability and competitive aerial contests, make ideal candidates for applying a mechanistic approach to studying community structure. Because flight costs are influenced by abiotic factors that change systematically with altitude, elevational gradients provide natural experiments for hummingbird flight ecology. Prior attempts relied on wing disc loading (WDL) as a morphological surrogate for flight performance, but recent analyses indicate this variable does not influence either territorial behavior or competitive ability. Aerodynamic power, by contrast, can be derived from direct measurements of performance and, like WDL, declines across elevations. Here, I demonstrate for a diverse community of Andean hummingbirds that burst aerodynamic power is associated with territorial behavior. Along a second elevational gradient in Colorado, I tested for correlated changes in aerodynamic power and competitive ability in two territorial hummingbirds. This behavioral analysis revealed that short-winged Selasphorus rufus males are dominant over long-winged Selasphorus platycercus males at low elevations but that the roles are reversed at higher elevations. Several lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the burst rather than sustained aerodynamic performance mediates competitive ability at high elevation. A minimum value for burst power may be required for successful competition, but other maneuverability features gain importance when all competitors have sufficient muscle power, as occurs at low elevations.

Animals↗

Lack of evidence for low-dimensional chaos in heart rate variability.

INTRODUCTION: The term chaos is used to describe erratic or apparently random time-dependent behavior in deterministic systems. It has been suggested that the variability observed in the normal heart rate may be due to chaos, but this question has not been settled. METHODS AND RESULTS: Heart rate variability was assessed by recordings of consecutive RR intervals in ten healthy subjects using ambulatory ECG. All recordings were performed with the subjects at rest in the supine position. To test for the presence of nonlinearities and/or chaotic dynamics, ten surrogate time series were constructed from each experimental dataset. The surrogate data were tailored to have the same linear dynamics and the same amplitude distribution as the original data. Experimental and surrogate data were then compared using various nonlinear measures. Power spectral analysis of the RR intervals showed a 1/f pattern. The correlation dimension differed only slightly between the experimental and the surrogate data, indicating that linear correlations, and not a "strange" attractor, are the major determinants of the calculated correlation dimension. A test for nonlinear predictability showed coherent nonlinear dynamic structure in the experimental data, but the prediction error as a function of the prediction length increased at a slower rate than characteristic of a low-dimensional chaotic system. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence for low-dimensional chaos in the time series of RR intervals from healthy human subjects. However, nonlinear determinism is present in the data, and various mechanisms that could generate such determinism are discussed.

Adolescent↗

Initial healing rates of venous ulcers: are they useful as predictors of healing?

Clinical trials that follow venous ulcers to complete healing can be costly because of the prolonged healing time involved. Initial healing rates in venous ulcers are calculated by 2 methods, which are based on a metric using wound area and perimeter. It has been proposed that these rates allow the prediction of complete healing and that they may be useful as surrogate end points for clinical trials. The objective of this study was to compare the 2 proposed methods for calculating initial healing rates and determine their usefulness in predicting the healing of venous ulcers. Venous leg ulcers from patients enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study were measured weekly for up to 12 weeks. Their healing status was determined for up to 24 weeks. Initial healing rates were calculated using the 2 proposed methods. The ability of these rates to predict time to complete healing was assessed. Information from 17 patients was available. The initial healing rates, calculated by either method, were quite similar; both methods produced the same median value of 0.046 cm/week in our patients. Five of the patients had negative initial healing rates, which do not allow any prediction of a healing time. Three of 7 patients predicted to heal within 24 weeks failed to do so. One of the 5 patients was predicted to heal at some time after 24 weeks but actually healed within 24 weeks. None of the 5 patients with negative initial healing rates healed within 24 weeks. Initial healing rates, as calculated by either method, have limited utility in describing healing curves and predicting a healing time. This poor predictive ability argues against using these initial healing rates as surrogate end points for clinical trials. The great variability observed in venous ulcer healing curves may limit the development of useful predictive models in this patient population.

Aged↗

Procollagen-derived biomarkers in malignant ascites of ovarian cancer. Independent prognosticators for progression-free interval and survival.

OBJECTIVE: Matrix formation is a hallmark of solid tumor biology. Circulating antigens of structural matrix proteins should reflect this fact, yet are subject to systemic variables. We propose that if measured regionally, in a cancer-induced extravascular fluid pool such as malignant ascites of ovarian cancer, the same antigens retain their conceptual advantage as surrogate markers for tumor biology. METHODS: In malignant ascites obtained at staging laparatomy of 35 women with ovarian cancer, the protein-normalized levels of the C-terminal propeptide of procollagen type I (pnPICP) and the N-terminal propeptide of procollagen type III (pnPIIINP) were determined. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we examined these parameters, their (pnPIIINP/pnPICP) quotient, and clinical criteria (FIGO stage, age, residual tumor, histology, and tumor grade) for impact on progression-free interval and survival. RESULTS: The absolute level of pnPIIINP was the single most powerful independent factor impacting on survival, its P value being distinctly below (P = 0.0005 vs 0.003) and its risk ratio distinctly above (15 vs 2.5) residual tumor after debulking surgery. The relative level of pnPIIINP, i.e. (pnPIIINP / pnPICP), impacted on the likelihood of recurrence even more than residual tumor. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, cutoff values for the absolute or relative pnPIIINP level significantly discriminated patients with shortened survival or progression-free interval, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Since malignant ovarian epithelium itself forms collagen type III, and since collagen type III is a solid-phase regulator of angiogenesis, we propose that ascitic pnPIIINP is a fluid-phase indicator for angiogenic activity in ovarian cancer and thus represents a tumor virulence index.

Age Factors↗

Measured FEV1 in the first postoperative day, and not ppoFEV1, is the best predictor of cardio-respiratory morbidity after lung resection.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: There is a low correlation between predicted postoperative FEV1 (ppoFEV1) and FEV1 measured the days after pulmonary resection, when most complications are developed. The hypothesis of this investigation is that ppoFEV1 does not predict postoperative morbidity in patients undergoing lung resection when immediate postoperative FEV1 is considered in the predictive model. METHODS: One hundred ninety-eight consecutive patients undergoing lobectomy or pneumonectomy were included in a prospective, multiinstitutional study. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: age, body mass index, ppoFEV1, surgical approach (VATS or muscle-sparing thoracotomy), type of analgesia (epidural or intraveous), postoperative visual analogue pain score and FEV1 measured the day after the operation. Target variable: occurrence of postoperative cardio-respiratory complications. Method of analysis: classification tree (CART) dividing the population at random in two subsets and developing a bootstrap set of 100 trees resampling training data. The relative importance of each variable and the accuracy of both initial and committee trees to predict the outcome were presented. RESULTS: One hundred seventy-seven lobectomies and 21 pneumonectomies were included. Overall cardio-respiratory morbidity was 22%. According to CART results, first day FEV1 was the most important variable to classify cases as primary splitter and as a surrogate of each primary splitter (100% importance). Patient age followed (51%) and ppoFEV1 was third (43%) with a score similar to postoperative pain score (42%) and type of analgesia (36%). Sensitivity and specificity of the initial tree were, respectively, 0.5 and 0.7; values for committee tree were 0.5 sensitivity and 0.7 specificity. CONCLUSION: Postoperative cardio-respiratory complications are more related to FEV1 measured in the first postoperative day than to ppoFEV1 value.

Age Factors↗

How to improve allocation of support service costs.

Better accounting for support service costs at outpatient facilities involves distinguishing between fixed and variable expenses, then creating separate budgets for them. To simplify this step, financial managers can create a surrogate, such as the number of patient visits, to represent service activity. Once this is completed, separated costs are allocated by using criteria that recognize short-term and long-term service use.

Budgets↗