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Assessing the effect of multiple linkage tests in complex diseases.

The significance of a lod score value of 3 is very difficult to assess in linkage studies between a genetic marker and a complex disease. One reason is that multiple tests may have been performed, voluntarily or otherwise. For the same disease, linkage may be tested by different laboratories with several markers under various genetic models and diagnostic schemes for the disease. In such a case, we show that the probability of getting a lod score value of 3 under independent transmission of the disease and the marker may be not negligible.

Female↗

Transmission/disequilibrium tests using multiple tightly linked markers.

Transmission/disequilibrium tests have attracted much attention in genetic studies of complex traits because (a) their power to detect genes having small to moderate effects may be greater than that of other linkage methods and (b) they are robust against population stratification. Highly polymorphic markers have become available throughout the human genome, and many such markers can be studied within short physical distances. Studies using multiple tightly linked markers are more informative than those using single markers. However, such information has not been fully utilized by existing statistical methods, resulting in possibly substantial loss of information in the identification of genes underlying complex traits. In this article, we propose novel statistical methods to analyze multiple tightly linked markers. Simulation studies comparing our methods versus existing methods suggest that our methods are more powerful. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to study genetic linkage between the dopamine D2 receptor locus and alcoholism.

Alcoholism↗

Maximum Shannon information content of diagnostic medical testing. Including application to multiple non-independent tests.

The increase in Shannon information available from a diagnostic test associated with grading of the test results into many outcomes, rather than simply positive or negative, was examined to determine its upper limit as the number of test outcomes is increased indefinitely. Numerical methods were employed to find the optimal locations of outcome boundaries when a single normally distributed test variable is classified into 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 14, or 20 outcome categories. In each case Shannon information was computed for values of prior probability between 0.01 and 0.99 and for distances between the means in diseased and nondiseased populations ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 standard deviations. There is an important improvement in Shannon information as the number of outcomes defined is increased, but the increment in information diminishes rapidly with each additional category. A 20%-30% increment in information may be achieved with three outcomes instead of two. A further important increase in information occurs with four to seven outcomes, but beyond this the increment in inforation is negligible. The findings were similar over a wide range of prior probabilities and distances between the means. The analysis was extended to the case of multiple nonindependent tests by demonstrating their application to a Fisher discriminant function incorporating such tests. It was concluded that for normally distributed test variables: grading of test results significantly improves the information content of both single and multiple tests; the value of information content for 8-20 outcomes represents very nearly the maximum information content of a test; there is little value in using more than five to seven test outcomes; multiple grading should not be neglected for discriminant functions.

Bayes Theorem↗

Global tests for multiple binary outcomes.

The applied statistician often encounters the need to compare two or more groups with respect to more than one outcome or response. Several options are generally available, including reducing the dimension of the problem by averaging or summarizing the outcomes, using Bonferroni or other adjustments for multiple comparisons, or applying a global test based on a suitable multivariate model. For normally distributed data, it is well established that global tests tend to be significantly more sensitive than other procedures. While global tests have also been proposed for multiple binary outcomes, their properties have not been well studied nor have they been widely discussed in the context of clustered data. In this paper, we derive a class of quasi-likelihood score tests for multiple binary outcomes, and show that special cases of this class correspond to other tests that have been proposed. We discuss extensions to allow for clustered data, and compare the results to the simple approach of collapsing the data to a single binary outcome, indicating the presence or absence of at least one response. The asymptotic relative efficiencies of the tests are shown to depend not only on the correlation between the outcomes, but also on the response probabilities. Although global tests based on a multivariate model are generally recommended, our findings suggest that a test based on the collapsed data can maintain surprisingly high efficiency, especially when the outcomes of interest are rare. Data from several developmental toxicity studies illustrate our results.

Abnormalities, Drug-Induced↗

Evaluation of diagnostic tests with multiple diagnostic categories.

The evaluation of diagnostic tests attempts to obtain one or more statistical parameters which can indicate the intrinsic diagnostic utility of a test. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive value are not appropriate for this use. The likelihood ratio has been proposed as a useful measure when using a test to diagnose one of two disease states (e.g. disease present or absent). In this paper, we generalize the likelihood ratio concept to a situation in which the goal is to diagnose one of several non-overlapping disease states. A formula is derived to determine the post-test probability of a specific disease state. The post-test odds are shown to be related to the pre-test odds of a disease and to the usual likelihood ratios derived from considering the diagnosis between the target diagnosis and each alternate in turn. Hence, likelihood ratios derived from comparing pairs of diseases can be used to determine test utility in a multiple disease diagnostic situation.

Bayes Theorem↗

Utilization review of simultaneously ordered multiple radiologic tests for the same symptom.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the utilization of multiple radiologic procedures ordered simultaneously for the same clinical problem. The method was a retrospective study of patients referred to an urban community hospital who had multiple radiologic tests ordered simultaneously before the referring physician reviewed any of the results. Utilization Findings Codes, beta versions II and III, of the American College of Radiology were applied. In- and outpatient charts were reviewed for initial indication, subsequent diagnosis, and treatment. Ninety-three patients had 214 radiologic examinations (2.3 per patient). Of the 214 total, 129 (60%) were retrospectively coded as inappropriate (beta II version). For 98 reports, the initial interpreting radiologist's coded 16% as inappropriate versus 55% when retrospectively coded by the authors (P < 0.0001). After applying the beta III version, 18% were coded as positive (and related to symptoms), 79% negative, and 3% equivocal. There were 161 (74%) examinations ordered by primary care physicians and 53 tests ordered by specialists. Using the beta III version, the negative rate for primary care physicians was 81 and 75% for specialists (P = 0.447). It was concluded that ordering multiple radiologic tests simultaneously on the same patient resulted in a high number of inappropriate procedures and negative results.

Adult↗

Paced visual serial addition test in multiple sclerosis.

The paced auditory serial addition test (PASAT), a subtest of the multiple sclerosis functional composite score (MSFC), is increasingly used in the evaluation of cognitive function in multiple sclerosis (MS). While patient acceptance for the PASAT is low, its visual version, the paced visual serial addition test (PVSAT), is perceived to be better tolerated. The aim of this study was to investigate the interchangeability of PVSAT and PASAT in the evaluation of cognitive function in MS. Twenty-one normal controls and 50 patients with clinically definite MS were tested with PASAT and PVSAT. Both for PASAT and PVSAT, 3 and 2-second versions of two parallel test forms were used. In the PVSAT, the PASAT stimuli were shown on a computer screen. Patients were also tested with the other two MSFC subtests, i.e. the nine-hole pegboard test and timed 25-foot walk test, to calculate MSFC scores. PASAT-3 correlated highly with both PVSAT-3 and PVSAT-2. MSFC-v scores calculated with PVSAT-2 and PVSAT-3 values correlated highly with MSFC scores calculated with PASAT-3 results. The results suggest that the PVSAT can be used as an alternative for the PASAT in the MSFC.

Adult↗

Evaluation of nonstress fetal heart rate testing in multiple gestations.

Routine serial nonstress fetal heart rate testing was evaluated in 94 patients with multiple gestations (193 fetuses). Reactive testing was associated with an uncomplicated perinatal outcome in 89% of the cases. Nonreactive fetuses had a significantly higher incidence of perinatal morbidity, including fetal distress in labor (77.8%), asphyxia (48%), and intrauterine growth retardation (28%). Overall perinatal mortality (21/1000) was nearly comparable to that observed in singleton pregnancies. Nonreactive fetuses had a perinatal death rate that was more than six times that of the reactive ones (80/1000 versus 12/1000). Antepartum nonstress testing was found to be a highly reliable and predictive tool in the assessment of multiple gestations.

Apgar Score↗

Cerebrospinal fluid corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) and vasopressin concentrations predict pituitary response in the CRF stimulation test: a multiple regression analysis.

There is considerable evidence that stress-related psychiatric disorders, including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are associated with hypersecretion of corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) within the central nervous system (CNS). One line of evidence that is consistent with central CRF hypersecretion in these disorders is the blunted adrenocorticotropin hormone (ACTH) response to intravenous CRF administration, likely a consequence, at least in part, of downregulation of anterior pituitary CRF receptors. The present study tests the hypothesis that elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of CRF and a secondary ACTH secretagogue, arginine vasopressin (AVP), are associated with diminished adenohypophyseal responses in a standard CRF stimulation test. CSF concentrations of CRF and AVP, and plasma ACTH responses to the administration of 1 microg/kg ovine CRF (oCRF) were measured in healthy adult women with and without current major depression and/or a history of significant childhood abuse. The primary outcome measure was ACTH area under the curve (AUC) in the CRF stimulation test. Multiple linear regression was performed to identify the impact of CSF CRF and AVP concentrations upon the pituitary response to CRF stimulation. The regression model explained 56.5% of the variation in the ACTH response to CRF stimulation. The relationship of CSF concentrations of CRF to ACTH responses to CRF were best described by a third-order function that was inversely correlated over most of the range of studied values. The association of ACTH response with CSF concentration of AVP and the dose of oCRF followed second-order kinetics. These findings support the hypothesis that central CRF hypersecretion is associated with a blunted ACTH response to exogenously administered CRF, explaining almost 60% of the variation in the ACTH response to CRF.

Adrenocorticotropic Hormone↗

E-UFA test in multiple sclerosis.

Field et al. have recently suggested a blood test for multiple sclerosis based on determination of the absolute electrophoretic mobility of erythrocytes alone and in the presence of linoleic acid (LA) or arachidonic acid (AA). We attempted to reinvestigate this phenomenon in an Italian population.

Arachidonic Acids↗

The Face-Symbol Test and the Symbol-Digit Test are not reliable surrogates for the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test in multiple sclerosis.

The Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) is the chosen task for cognitive assessment in the multiple sclerosis functional composite (MSFC) and a widely used task in neuropsychological studies of people with multiple sclerosis (MS), but is unpopular with patients. The Face-Symbol Test (FST) and Symbol-Digit Tests (SDT) are alternative methods of cognitive testing in MS, which are easily administered and patient-friendly. In order to evaluate the potential of the FST as a possible surrogate for the PASAT, we directly compared the FST to the PASAT and the SDT in a cohort of 50 MS patients with varying levels of disability. There was significant correlation between SDT and FST scores (Spearman's rho 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.88), R(2) 65%, with moderate inter-test agreement (k =0.52). In contrast, SDT and FST scores were less predictive of PASAT scores. We concluded that neither the FST nor SDT are reliable surrogates for the PASAT.

Adult↗

Evaluating multiple diagnostic tests with partial verification.

To evaluate diagnostic tests, one would ideally like to verify, for example, with a biopsy, the disease state of all subjects in a study. Often, however, no all subjects are verified. Previous methods for evaluation assume that the decision to verify depends only on recorded variables. Sometimes, particularly if the disease process is not well understood, the decision to verify may also depend on unrecorded variables related to disease. We propose a method to estimate the true- and false-positive rates of multiple tests while adjusting for the effect, on the decision to verify, of unrecorded variables related to disease. To put the estimates into a more usable form, we develop a simple algorithm for creating a receiver-operating curve which maximizes the true-positive rate, given the false-positive rate. We apply the methodology to data on the early detection of prostate cancer using ultrasonography, digital rectal exam, and prostate specific antigen.

Biometry↗

Clinical and economic considerations associated with testing for fetal lung maturity.

Performing multiple tests of fetal lung maturity on amniotic fluid samples may not use the individual test results and laboratory personnel most effectively. To determine the best strategy for fetal lung maturity testing, we analyzed our experience with use of a variety of procedures. Clinical usefulness was assessed according to sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and efficiency. Economic and technical aspects analyzed included time and personnel requirements, availability of tests, and expense of each procedure. Several testing sequence approaches were compared for efficiency and cost. In our laboratory the foam stability index proved to be the most useful initial test of fetal lung maturity, reserving more expensive and time-consuming tests for instances in which the foam stability index is immature. Routine multiple testing did not enhance clinical usefulness and greatly increased costs. Development of a testing strategy using a rapid, inexpensive, and widely available test such as the foam stability index would promote clinical and economic efficiency.

Amniotic Fluid↗

Genome-wide scan identified QTLs underlying femoral neck cross-sectional geometry that are novel studied risk factors of osteoporosis.

UNLABELLED: A genome-wide screen was conducted using a large white sample to identify QTLs for FNCS geometry. We found significant linkage of FNCS parameters to 20q12 and Xq25, plus significant epistatic interactions and sex-specific QTLs influencing FNCS geometry variation. INTRODUCTION: Bone geometry, a highly heritable trait, is a critical component of bone strength that significantly determines osteoporotic fracture risk. Specifically, femoral neck cross-sectional (FNCS) geometry is significantly associated with hip fracture risk as well as genetic factors. However, genetic research in this respect is still in its infancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To identify the underlying genomic regions influencing FNCS variables, we performed a remarkably large-scale whole genome linkage scan involving 3998 individuals from 434 pedigrees for four FNCS geometry parameters, namely buckling ratio (BR), cross-sectional area (CSA), cortical thickness (CT), and section modulus (Z). The major statistical approach adopted is the variance component method implemented in SOLAR. RESULTS: Significant linkage evidence (threshold LOD = 3.72 after correction for tests of multiple phenotypes) was found in the regions of 20q12 and Xq25 for CT (LOD = 4.28 and 3.90, respectively). We also identified eight suggestive linkage signals (threshold LOD = 2.31 after correction for multiple tests) for the respective geometry traits. The above findings were supported by principal component linkage analysis. Of them, 20q12 was of particular interest because it was linked to multiple FNCS geometry traits and significantly interacted with five other genomic loci to influence CSA variation. The effects of 20q12 on FNCS geometry were present in both male and female subgroups. Subgroup analysis also revealed the presence of sex-specific quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for FNCS traits in the regions such as 2p14, 3q26, 7q21 and 15q21. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings laid a foundation for further replication and fine-mapping studies as well as for positional and functional candidate gene studies, aiming at eventually finding the causal genetic variants and hidden mechanisms concerning FNCS geometry variation and the associated hip fractures.

Adult↗