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A retrospective case-control study was conducted to estimate the possible association between risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) and the number of changes in residence before the age 20 years. Forty-one patients and 82 controls were interviewed. Using the Mantel-Haenszel estimate of the odds ratio, no association was found between the number of moves and MS.
Using data from the National Vital Statistics System and the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, this study examined mortality trends and differentials from 1950 through 1993 among US adolescents and young adults according to sex, race/ethnicity, education, family income, marital status, and cause of dealth. No appreciable reduction in youth mortality has occurred, especially among men. Declines in youth mortality from accidents have been nearly ofset by increases in death rates from homicide, suicide, and firearm injuries. American Indians, Blacks, males, and those with least education and income were at increased risk of both overall and injury-specific youth mortality.
The fungicide fluazinam, the insecticide lambda-cyhalothrin, and the herbicides asulam and metamitron were applied to indoor freshwater microcosms (water volume approximately 0.6 m3). The treatment regime was based on a realistic application scenario in tulip cultivation. Concentrations of each pesticide were equal to 0%, 0.2%, 0.5%, 2%, and 5% spray drift emission of label-recommended rates. Contribution of compounds to the toxicity of the pesticide package was established by expressing their concentrations as fractions of toxic units. The fate of the compounds in the water, and responses of phytoplankton, zooplankton, periphyton, macroinvertebrates, macrophytes, decomposition, and water quality were followed for 13 weeks. The half-lives of lambda-cyhalothrin, metamitron, and fluazinam were 1 to 2 d; that of asulam was >30 d. No consistent effects could be demonstrated for the 0.2% treatment regime that was therefore considered the no-observed-effect concentration community (NOEC). The macroinvertebrate populations of Gammarus pulex, Asellus aquaticus, and Proasellus meridianus were the most sensitive end points, followed by species of copepods and cladocerans. Responses mainly were due to lambda-cyhalothrin. The 0.5% treatment regime resulted in short-term effects. Pronounced effects were observed at the 2% and 5% treatment levels. At the end of the experiment, the macrophyte biomass that consisted of Elodea nuttallii, showed a decline at the two highest treatment levels, asulam being the causal factor (NOEC: 0.5% treatment level). Primary production was reduced at the 5% treatment level only. In our experiment, the first-tier risk assessment procedure for individual compounds was adequate for protecting sensitive populations exposed to realistic combinations of pesticides. Spray drift reduction measures seem to be efficient in protecting aquatic ecosystems in agricultural areas.
A major goal of ecology is to understand spatial variation in species richness. The latter is markedly influenced by energy availability and appears to be influenced more by common species than rare ones; species-energy relationships should thus be stronger for common species. Species-energy relationships may arise because high-energy areas support more individuals, and these larger populations may buffer species from extinction. As extinction risk is a negative decelerating function of population size, this more-individuals hypothesis (MIH) predicts that rare species should respond more strongly to energy. We investigate these opposing predictions using British breeding bird data and find that, contrary to the MIH, common species contribute more to species-energy relationships than rare ones.
Emerging and re-emerging pathogens present a huge challenge to human and veterinary medicine. Emergence is most commonly associated with ecological change, and specific risk factors are related to the type of pathogen, route of transmission and host range. The biological determinants of host range remain poorly understood but most pathogens can infect multiple hosts, and three-quarters of emerging human pathogens are zoonotic. Surveillance is a key defence against emerging pathogens but will often need to be integrated across human, domestic animal and wildlife populations.
Extinction risk is a key area of investigation for contemporary ecologists and conservation biologists. Practical conservation efforts for vulnerable species can be considerably enhanced by thoroughly understanding the ecological processes that interact to determine species persistence or extinction. Theory has highlighted the importance of both extrinsic environmental factors and intrinsic demographic processes. In laboratory microcosms, single-species single-habitat patch experimental designs have been widely used to validate the theoretical prediction that environmental heterogeneity can increase extinction risk. Here, we develop on this theme by testing the effects of fluctuating resource levels in experimental multispecies metapopulations. We compare a three-species host-parasitoid assemblage that exhibits apparent competition to the individual pairwise, host-parasitoid interactions. Existing theory is broadly supported for two-species assemblages: environmental stochasticity reduces trophic interaction persistence time, while metapopulation structure increases persistence time. However, with increasing assemblage complexity, the effects of trophic interactions mask environmental impacts and persistence time is further reduced, regardless of resource renewal regime. We relate our findings to recent theory, highlighting the importance of taking into account both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, over a range of spatial scales, in order to understand resource-consumer dynamics.
OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have indicated varying rates of HIV infection among labor migrants to the United States of America. Most of these studies have been conducted with convenience samples of farmworkers, thus presenting limited external validity. This study sought to estimate the prevalence of HIV infection and risk factors among Mexican migrants traveling through the border region of Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico, and San Diego, California, United States. This region handles 37% of the migrant flow between Mexico and the United States and represents the natural port of entry for Mexican migrants to California. METHODS: From April to December 2002 a probability survey was conducted at key migrant crossing points in Tijuana. Mexican migrants, including ones with a history of illegal migration to the United States, completed an interview on HIV risk factors (n = 1 429) and an oral HIV antibody test (n = 1,041). RESULTS: Despite reporting risk factors for HIV infection, none of the migrants tested positive for HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings contrast with previous estimates of HIV among labor migrants in the United States that were based on nonprobability samples. Our findings also underline the need for early HIV prevention interventions targeting this population of Mexican migrants.
Theoretically, segregation and discrimination could affect mortality among blacks (African Americans) not only through their impact on social class (including the concentration of blacks in high-poverty areas) but also by influencing health care and psychosocial factors. This paper reviews evidence that variation in mortality rates for black infants and young adults living in large metropolitan areas is associated with the level of black-white segregation. A few metropolitan areas in California with relatively low levels of segregation are shown to have low black death rates and small black-white differences in mortality rates for infants and young adult males (15-44 years old). In-depth studies are needed in these areas. Longitudinal studies of potential "risk factors" for disease and death among blacks should include: personal histories of experiences with discrimination, psychological reactions to discrimination, segregation indexes, quality of life in residential areas, and social class indicators.
The authors hypothesized that cognitive impairment is associated with falls in older adults, but that transfer bias may obscure this association in cross-sectional community studies. The bias would arise if demented patients who fall are relatively unavailable to community surveys due to death or institutionalization. To test this hypothesis, a "dose-response" relationship between falls and cognitive impairment was tested for using data from a longitudinal cohort study of 157 patients with Alzheimer-type dementia. In a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data, when 96% of the cohort were community residents, the association between falls and cognitive impairment was insignificant (odds ratio for a 10-point change in Mini-mental State score = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.76-1.9). Yet cognitive impairment at baseline predicted falls during three-year follow-up (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.0). Both severity of dementia and falls were risk factors for death or institutionalization. Patients at highest risk for leaving the community during follow-up were those who became non-ambulatory. The authors conclude, based on longitudinal data, that there is a dose-response effect between cognitive impairment and falls. Transfer bias probably obscured the association at baseline. These data emphasize the importance of prospective studies of falls.
Estuaries in urban regions present unique environmental management challenges. Ecosystems in urban estuaries are typically impacted by habitat loss and degradation, watershed modification, and nonpoint and point sources of many chemicals. Restoring such systems requires an understanding of the relative contribution of various stressors to overall ecological conditions and an understanding of shifting patterns of stress over time. In this article, we present the results of a multiparameter environmental assessment of a quintessential urbanized waterway: the lower Passaic River in the vicinity of Newark, New Jersey, USA. To provide the foundation for effective management decision making, we quantified baseline conditions (habitat losses and degradation), chemical concentrations in sediment and biota relative to published toxic effect levels, direct toxicity of sediments to benthic organisms, and food-web mediated risks to fish-eating birds. Habitat losses have been severe (greater than 85% of wetlands, nearly 100% of the total length of tidal and nontidal tributaries, and 100% of natural shoreline habitat have been lost), resulting in substantial habitat constraints on biota. Despite this, biological communities are present in the lower Passaic. In general, concentrations of toxic chemicals in surface sediments have fallen with time, and natural recovery processes are proceeding. Chemical concentrations remain high enough to impair survival of amphipods, but not amphipod growth or polychaete growth or survival as measured in laboratory bioassays using field-collected sediment. Fish and blue crab body burdens of some metals, PCBs, and the pesticide, DDT, are at concentrations sufficiently high to exceed toxicity thresholds. The resident fish-eating bird--the belted kingfisher--is at exposure risk from some metals, PCBs, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzo furans (PCDD/Fs). Migratory waders--the herons and egrets--are not at risk from chemical exposure. These complex findings suggest that restoring the lower Passaic River to ecological health is a correspondingly complex task. Habitat constraints must be eased for biotic components of the ecosystem, and chemical effects must be reduced for those organisms that are present. Only a coordinated, multidisciplinary restoration program will succeed in this challenging environment.
"In order to analyze the deaths from heart disease associated with various occupations, we examined [1985 vital statistics for Japan] and calculated the risk ratio as well as the attributable risk percent (ARP), for deaths from all forms of heart disease, from ischemic heart disease, [and] from heart failure. The risk ratio for all forms of heart disease was highest in Group E (agricultural, forestry and fisheries workers) and Group F (mining workers) in most age groups. The second highest ratio was seen in Group J (service workers), especially those in their 30s and over. The ratio was also higher in Group D (sales workers) in their 50s and over."
In the winter-spring of 2001, South Florida experienced one of the worst droughts in its recorded history. Out of a myriad of ecological concerns identified during this time, the potential for catastrophic peat fire and negative impacts to wading bird reproduction emerged as critical issues. Water managers attempted to strike a balance between the environment and protection of water supplies for agriculture and urban interests. It became evident, however, that a broad-scale, integrated way to portray and prioritise ecological stress was lacking in the Florida Everglades, despite this being considered a necessary tool for addressing issues of environmental protection. In order to provide a framework for evaluating various water management operations using real-time information, we developed GIS-based indices of peat-fire risk and wading bird habitat suitability. These indices, based on real physical, chemical, and biological data, describe two ecological conditions that help define the physical and biological integrity of the Everglades. In addition to providing continuous, updated assessments throughout the drought period, we incorporated predictive models of water levels to evaluate how various water management alternatives might exacerbate or alleviate ecological stress during this time.
Synoptic data on concentrations of sediment-associated chemical contaminants and benthic macroinfaunal community structure were collected from 1,389 stations in estuaries along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts as part of the nationwide Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). These data were used to develop an empirical framework for evaluating risks of benthic community-level effects within different ranges of sediment contamination from mixtures of multiple chemicals present at varying concentrations. Sediment contamination was expressed as the mean ratio of individual chemical concentrations relative to corresponding sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), including Effects Range-Median (ERM) and Probable Effects Level (PEL) values. Benthic condition was assessed using diagnostic, multi-metric indices developed for each of three EMAP provinces (Virginian, Carolinian, and Louisianian). Cumulative percentages of stations with a degraded benthic community were plotted against ascending values of the mean ERM and PEL quotients. Based on the observed relationships, mean SQG quotients were divided into four ranges corresponding to either a low, moderate, high, or very high incidence of degraded benthic condition. Results showed that condition of the ambient benthic community provides a reliable and sensitive indicator for evaluating the biological significance of sediment-associated stressors. Mean SQG quotients marking the beginning of the contaminant range associated with the highest incidence of benthic impacts (73-100% of samples, depending on the province and type of SQG) were well below those linked to high risks of sediment toxicity as determined by short-term toxicity tests with single species. Measures of the ambient benthic community reflect the sensitivities of multiple species and life stages to persistent exposures under actual field conditions. Similar results were obtained with preliminary data from the west coast (Puget Sound).
A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.
Risk from Acanthamoeba keratitis is complex, depending upon the virulence of the particular strain, exposure, trauma, or other stress to the eye, and host immune response. Bacterial endosymbionts may also play a factor in the pathogenicity of Acanthamoeba. Which factor(s) may be the most important is not clear. The ability of the host to produce IgA antibodies in tears may be a significant factor. The immune response of the host is a significant risk factor for GAE infection. If so, then a certain subpopulation with an inability to produce IgA in the tears may be at greatest risk. There was no sufficient data on the occurrence or types of Acanthamoeba in tapwater in the U.S. Published work on amoebal presence in tapwater does not provide information on the type of treatment the water received or the level of residual chlorine. Assessment of the pathogenicity by cell culture and molecular methods of Acanthamoeba in tapwater would also be useful in the risk assessment process for drinking water. The possibility that Acanthamoeba spp. might serve as vectors for bacterial infections from water sources also should be explored. The bacterial endosymbionts include an interesting array of pathogens such as Vibrio cholerae and Legionella pneumophila, both of which are well recognized waterborne/water-based pathogens. Work is needed to determine if control of Acanthamoeba spp. is needed to control water-based pathogens in water supplies.
This paper makes three points relevant to the application of the precautionary principle to the regulation of GMOs. i) The unavoidable arbitrariness in the application of the precautionary principle reflects a deeper epistemological problem affecting scientific analyses of sustainability. This requires understanding the difference between the concepts of "risk", "uncertainty" and "ignorance". ii) When dealing with evolutionary processes it is impossible to ban uncertainty and ignorance from scientific models. Hence, traditional risk analysis (probability distributions and exact numerical models) becomes powerless. Other forms of scientific knowledge (general principles or metaphors) may be useful alternatives. iii) The existence of ecological hazards per se should not be used as a reason to stop innovations altogether. However, the precautionary principle entails that scientists move away from the concept of "substantive rationality" (trying to indicate to society optimal solutions) to that of "procedural rationality" (trying to help society to find "satisficing" solutions).
Decisions about management of invasive species are difficult for all the reasons typically addressed by multiattribute decision analysis: uncertain outcomes, multiple and conflicting objectives, and many interested parties with differing views on both facts and values. This article illustrates how the tools of multiattribute analysis can improve management of invasive species, with an emphasis on making explicit the social values and preferences that must inform invasive species management. Risk assessment protocols developed previously for invasive species management typically suffer from two interacting flaws: (1) separating risk assessment from risk management, thus disrupting essential connections between the social values at stake in invasive species decisions and the scientific knowledge necessary to predict the likely impacts of management actions, and (2) relying on expert judgment about risk framed in qualitative and value-laden terms, inadvertently mixing the expert's judgment about what is likely to happen with personal preferences. Using the values structuring and probability-modeling elements of formal decision analysis can remedy these difficulties and make invasive species management responsive to both good science and public values. The management of feral pigs in Hawaiian ecosystems illustrates the need for such an integrated approach.
The human mediated transfer of harmful organisms via shipping, specifically via ballast water transport, leading to the loss of biodiversity, alteration of ecosystems, negative impacts on human health and in some regions economic loss, has raised considerable attention especially in the last decade. Ballast water sampling is very important for biological invasions risk management. The complexity of ballast water sampling is a result of both the variety of organism diversity and behaviour, as well as ship design including availability of ballast water sampling points. Furthermore, ballast water sampling methodology is influenced by the objectives of the sampling study. In the course of research conducted in Slovenia, new sampling equipment for ships' ballast water was developed and tested. In this paper new ballast water sampling methods and equipment together with practical shipboard testing results are presented.