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PubMed2002

Measurement and predictors of young adults' perceived ability to cope with dental life events.

The purpose of the present study was to assess coping skills and predictors of the ability to cope with dental life events employing a 10-item rather than a 48-item rating questionnaire. A representative random sample of 1490 subjects aged 25 years from 3 Norwegian counties received a mail questionnaire in March 1997. The response rate was 62% after 1 reminder. Eight selected items from the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) plus 2 dental items were presented as graphic rating scales with the endpoints 'not difficult at all' and 'more difficult than anything'. Mean values were used to rank the life events and for comparison with findings from a previous study. Information was also collected for 16 predictor variables (Table 2). The informants found it moderately difficult to cope with losing one or more teeth and with getting dentures. A 10- and a 48-item rating scale seemed to give comparable results. In multiple logistic regression analysis, controlling for having experienced extraction during the previous 5 years, gender, and dental anxiety were significant predictors of both dental life events; education, many cavities, and belief in keeping teeth for life influenced coping with getting dentures. The identified predictors of dental life events explained <11% of the variance. In addition to extending the list of predictors of perceived need for skills to adjust to dental life events, the study also provided evidence to suggest that it may be acceptable to rely on a shorter rating questionnaire.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

PubMed2003

Predictors of postmenopausal body mass index and waist hip ratio in the oklahoma postmenopausal health disparities study.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of the current study has been to examine systematically the respective roles of nutrition, exercise, menopausal weight gain, moderate drinking and smoking as determinants of body mass index (BMI) and waist hip ratio (WHR) in a setting in which the role of race or ethnic group could be simultaneously or individually evaluated as predictors of BMI and WHR. Because the use of estrogen replacement has been reported to affect estimates of body fat mass in postmenopausal women, endocrine factors have also been evaluated. METHODS: The design is cross-sectional with historical prospective elements. The study has a biomedical focus and is not an epidemiologic study. Data are from 649 women recruited into The Postmenopausal Health Disparities Study in Oklahoma. The study population was composed of 649 postmenopausal women: American Indian: 226 (34.9%), Asian: 21 (3.2%), Black: 78 (12.0%), Hispanics: 54 (8.3%) and Whites: 270 (41.6%). Recruitment occurred between 1994 and late 1999 in Oklahoma. RESULTS: In this multi-racial, multi-ethnic study population, there was statistical heterogeneity in all nutrition/dietary and exercise variables as well as in other potential determinants of BMI and WHR. In contrast to the literature available for postmenopausal women in which postmenopausal status, estrogen replacement and race have rarely been taken into account, the results of multi-linear regression revealed the following: Significant predictors for BMI, with or without WHR specified, included the neuroendocrine factors, menopausal weight gain, smoking, mean fitness (i.e., difficulty performing physical activities), fat as percent of total calories, moderate drinking and being Asian or Black. When WHR was not included, total calories and socioeconomic status also entered the model. The statistical predictors of WHR in the total study population with BMI in the equation included BMI and the neuroendocrine variables of FSH, E2, but not ERT, as well as the interaction of higher intensity exercise fitness with frequency, socioeconomic status and being American Indian or Asian. When BMI was not included in the model, in addition to the neuroendocrine factors, the interaction of lower intensity exercise fitness with frequency, fat as percent of total calories, age living alone and being American Indian or and Black were significant predictors of WHR. The predictors of both BMI and WHR were found to differ among individual racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Given the role of increased body fat and obesity in disease risk and the substantial differences in life expectancy among the racial and ethnic groups, the findings of this study, particularly in contrast to literature reports, strongly suggest that a whole variety of factors including hormonal status and race need to be considered when examining the role of dietary factors and physical activity in relation to estimates of body fat mass and disease risk.

Alcohol Drinking↗

PubMed2006

Predictors for high costs of hospital care in elderly hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse predictors of high cost of care in elderly hypertensive patients, in particular costs related to short-term (<10 days) and long-term (< or = 10 days) institutional care. DESIGN: Health Economy (HE) sub-study in the Swedish Trial in Old Patients with Hypertension-2 (STOP Hypertension-2). SETTING: Outpatient clinics, hospitals and nursing homes in Sweden. SUBJECTS: Elderly (70-84 years) patients (n=6614) from the STOP Hypertension-2 cohort with a systolic or diastolic hypertension, or a combination thereof, were included. METHODS: Costs of institutional care were analysed and categorized as short-term (<10 days or long-term care (> or = 10 days). Costs were related to individual patients and calculations were made during follow-up in STOP Hypertension-2 from inclusion to end of study. Data was available from 99% of all scheduled visits during the median 5.3 years of follow-up in the 6614 elderly hypertensive patients. RESULTS: A multivariate analysis of potential predictors for inpatient short-term or long-term care demonstrated that several clinical factors within the groups of target organ damage (TOD), associated clinical conditions (ACC), as well as additional risk factors (RF) predicted for an increased probability of inpatient care in elderly hypertensives. Specifically, predictors for heart failure (OR 1.73, p=0.005), diabetes (OR 1.36, p<0.0005) and older age (OR 1.05, p<0.0001). Predictors at entry for long-term care (> or = 10 days) were; presence of ischaemic heart disease (OR 1.65, p<0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.32, p=0.012), female gender (OR 0.80, p=0.0003) as well as older age (OR 1.02, p=0.046). High total costs for this cohort of elderly hypertensive patients were recorded in the group subjected to long-term care for cardiovascular as well as non-cardiovascular reasons. Male gender (p=0.004) and stroke (p=0.06) remained predictors for high costs for hospital care while stroke (p<0.0001) and old age (p<0.0001) predicted for high costs for nursing home care. CONCLUSION: In elderly hypertensives in STOP Hypertension-2, presence of cardiac disease, stroke, diabetes and older age at entry increased the probability as well as costs for both short- and long-term care. Level of systolic or diastolic blood pressure did not predict for hospitalization or cost outcome. Our results provide an economic argument for strict risk reduction focus in the management of elderly high-risk hypertensive patients.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗

PubMed2000

Gender differences in behavioural and psychosocial predictors of HIV testing and return for test results in a high-risk population.

We assessed gender differences in psychosocial and behavioural predictors of HIV testing and returning for results in a high-risk sample of 1,049 predominately minority, impoverished, homeless and/or drug-abusing women (n = 621) and men (n = 428). Predictors included latent variables representing injection drug use, self-esteem, social support, AIDS knowledge, poor access to health services, perceived risk for AIDS, sexual risk behaviour and the mediators of positive and negative coping styles. Significant predictors of test and return for women included injection drug use, greater social support, more AIDS knowledge, a higher perceived risk for AIDS and a positive coping style. Significant predictors for the men included injection drug use, greater AIDS knowledge, a higher perceived risk for AIDS and a positive coping style. Although greater social support was not significant for the men, the significant predictors of HIV testing and return were generally similar for the men and women. However, the men evaluated their risk of AIDS significantly lower than the women, although they reported more sexual risk behaviours and equally risky injection drug use behaviours. Results suggest that interventions designed to increase AIDS knowledge, to raise the perception of risk and to promote a positive coping style would be effective in encouraging more HIV testing for both men and women, but raising perceptions of what constitutes personal risk behaviours may need special emphasis when delivering prevention programmes to men.

AIDS Serodiagnosis↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Outcome predictors in cocaine dependence treatment trials.

Finding the predictors of outcome in outpatient cocaine dependence treatment trials may be useful for the development of both psychosocial as well as pharmacological treatments for cocaine dependence. Among the most powerful predictors of response to psychosocial treatment are cocaine withdrawal symptom severity and the results of a urine drug screen (UDS) collected at study entry. The present trial seeks to extend these findings by examining outcome predictors in a large number of subjects participating in a series of outpatient cocaine pharmacotherapy trials while selecting three separate criteria to define successful outcome. The ability of several baseline variables were tested to predict treatment outcome in a series of cocaine medication trials that included 402 cocaine-dependent subjects. Predictor variables included results from the baseline Addiction Severity Index (ASI), initial UDS results, and cocaine withdrawal symptom severity at treatment entry, as measured by scores on the Cocaine Selective Severity Assessment (CSSA). Outcome measures included UDS results obtained during the trials and results from the ASI gathered at the end of the trials. Baseline variables that most consistently predicted treatment outcome were the initial UDS results and initial CSSA scores. These findings indicate that baseline UDS results and CSSA scores are powerful predictors of outcome and should be used as stratifying variables in outpatient cocaine medication trials.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of nosocomial bloodstream infections among critically ill adult trauma patients.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the independent predictors of nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSIs) among critically ill adult trauma patients. DESIGN: A prospective, cohort design was used to study patients who met predetermined inclusion criteria. Basic descriptive and univariate statistical analyses were performed to identify unadjusted predictors. A forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was then conducted to identify independent predictors of nosocomial BSI. SETTING: Level I university-affiliated shock trauma center. PATIENTS: Three hundred sixty-one critically ill adult trauma patients, 55 of whom developed nosocomial BSIs (15.2%). RESULTS: Data analysis of 45 variables indicated that only 9 were independent predictors of nosocomial BSI: presence of a chest tube, use of immunosuppressive agents, presence of microbial resistance, length of stay, presence of preexisting infection, percentage change of serum albumin levels, patient disposition, transfusion of 10 or more units of blood, and number of central venous catheters (CVCs) for patients who had 4 or more. The classification index of the final regression model at a cut-off point of 0.5 had a specificity of 97.4%, a sensitivity of 60%, a positive predictive value of 76.7%, a negative predictive value of 93%, and an overall precision of 91%. CONCLUSION: In this study, only 9 variables were independent predictors of nosocomial BSI. Our findings are specific to critically ill adult trauma patients and should be interpreted within the context of this particular population.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Tertiary peritonitis (recurrent diffuse or localized disease) is not an independent predictor of mortality in surgical patients with intraabdominal infection.

BACKGROUND: It is well documented that tertiary peritonitis is associated with different microbiological flora and worse outcomes than secondary peritonitis. It is unknown, however, if these differences can be explained simply by the nosocomial nature of tertiary peritonitis and underlying severity of illness. METHODS: We reviewed all episodes of intraabdominal infection on the inpatient surgical services at a university hospital over a 46-month period. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were used to compare 91 episodes of secondary peritonitis that progressed to tertiary peritonitis (recurrent diffuse or localized intraabdominal infection) to all episodes of secondary peritonitis (n = 453) to identify predictors for developing tertiary peritonitis. Logistic regression was also used to identify predictors of mortality among patients with secondary (n = 473) or tertiary peritonitis (n = 129). RESULTS: Of 602 episodes of intraabdominal infection identified, there were 473 episodes of secondary peritonitis, including 20 patients who died within seven days of diagnosis. A total of 129 episodes of tertiary peritonitis were identified, of which 91 were preceded by a single episode of secondary peritonitis, and 38 were preceded by an episode of secondary peritonitis and at least one prior episode of tertiary peritonitis. Tertiary peritonitis was associated with a high APACHE II score (14.9 +/- 0.7), pancreatic or small bowel source, drainage only at initial intervention, gram-positive and fungal pathogens, and a high mortality rate (19%). Increasing APACHE II score (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.16, p = 0.0009) independently predicted progression from secondary to tertiary peritonitis while increasing age (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99, p = 0.01) and appendiceal source (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.68, p = 0.02) predicted non-progression to tertiary peritonitis. Independent predictors of mortality in this population included increasing age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.1, p < 0.001), increasing APACHE II score (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.3, p < 0.001), and four comorbidities: cerebrovascular disease (OR 4.3, 95% CI 1.4-13.1, p = 0.01), malignant disease (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.3-6.5, p = 0.01), hemodialysis dependency (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.3-11.2, p = 0.02), and liver disease (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-15.1, p = 0.03). Tertiary peritonitis was not an independent predictor of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to demonstrate, when compared to secondary peritonitis, that tertiary peritonitis is a significant independent predictor of mortality when other variables are taken into account. This suggests that the high mortality associated with tertiary peritonitis is more a function of the patient population in which it occurs than the severity of the pathologic process itself.

APACHE↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of optical density of lutein and zeaxanthin in retinas of older women in the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study, an ancillary study of the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Lifestyle, diet, and physical and health predictors of xanthophyll carotenoids in the retina are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the predictors of the density of lutein and zeaxanthin in the macula of the retina. DESIGN: Macular pigment optical density (MPOD) was measured by heterochromatic flicker photometry. Relations to dietary lutein and zeaxanthin and to other predictors were measured in 1698 women aged 53-86 y. The women were members of observational study cohorts of the Women's Health Initiative at Iowa City, IA, Madison, WI, or Portland, OR, and participated in the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study (2001-2004). RESULTS: MPOD at 0.5 degrees from the foveal center was 30% higher in women in the highest quintile for lutein and zeaxanthin intake [x (+/-SD): 0.40 +/- 0.21] than in women in the lowest quintile (0.31 +/- 0.21) and 20% higher after adjustment for other predictors. Dietary intake of lutein, zeaxanthin, fiber, and polyunsaturated fatty acids (% of energy) together explained 3% of the variability in MPOD. Higher waist circumference and diabetes, which are related to lower MPOD, together with study site explained an additional 5% of variation. The total explained variability increased to 12% when lutein and zexanthin concentrations obtained from the serum, which were collected 4-7 y earlier, were added to the model. CONCLUSIONS: MPOD is directly related to dietary intake of lutein and zeaxanthin but even more strongly to serum concentrations, which may reflect unmeasured physical and medical factors that influence the uptake, distribution, and utilization of lutein and zeaxanthin. Higher abdominal body fat and diabetes are related to lower MPOD. Unknown predictors of retinal carotenoids remain.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

A protocol for building and evaluating predictors of disease state based on microarray data.

MOTIVATION: Microarray gene expression data are increasingly employed to identify sets of marker genes that accurately predict disease development and outcome in cancer. Many computational approaches have been proposed to construct such predictors. However, there is, as yet, no objective way to evaluate whether a new approach truly improves on the current state of the art. In addition no 'standard' computational approach has emerged which enables robust outcome prediction. RESULTS: An important contribution of this work is the description of a principled training and validation protocol, which allows objective evaluation of the complete methodology for constructing a predictor. We review the possible choices of computational approaches, with specific emphasis on predictor choice and reporter selection strategies. Employing this training-validation protocol, we evaluated different reporter selection strategies and predictors on six gene expression datasets of varying degrees of difficulty. We demonstrate that simple reporter selection strategies (forward filtering and shrunken centroids) work surprisingly well and outperform partial least squares in four of the six datasets. Similarly, simple predictors, such as the nearest mean classifier, outperform more complex classifiers. Our training-validation protocol provides a robust methodology to evaluate the performance of new computational approaches and to objectively compare outcome predictions on different datasets.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2005

Temporal lobe epilepsy with hippocampal sclerosis: predictors for long-term surgical outcome.

Temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) accompanied by hippocampal sclerosis (HS) is the type of epilepsy most frequently operated on. The predictors for long-term seizure freedom after surgery of TLE-HS are unknown. In this study, we aimed to identify prognostic factors which predict the outcome 6 months and 2, 3 and 5 years after epilepsy surgery of TLE-HS. Our working hypothesis was that the prognostic value of potential predictors depended on the post-operative time interval for which the assessment was made. We included 171 patients (100 females and 71 males, aged 16-59 years) who had undergone presurgical evaluation, including video-EEG, who had had MRI-defined HS, and who had undergone temporal lobectomy. We found that secondarily generalized seizures (SGTCS) and ictal dystonia were associated with a worse 2-year outcome. Both these variables together with older age and longer epilepsy duration were also related to a worse 3-year outcome. Ictal limb dystonia, older age and longer epilepsy duration were associated with long-term surgical failure evaluated 5 years post-operatively. In order to determine the independent predictors of outcomes, we calculated multivariate analyses. The presence of SGTCS and ictal dystonia independently predicted the 2-year outcome. Longer epilepsy duration and ictal dystonia predicted the 3-year outcome. Longer epilepsy duration (P = 0.003) predicted a poor 5-year outcome. Conclusively, predictors for the long-term surgical results of TLE with HS are different from those variables that predict the short-term outcome. Epilepsy duration is the most important predictor for long-term surgical outcome. Our results strongly suggest that surgery for TLE-HS should be performed as early as possible.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1995

Predictors of the age-related increase in blood pressure in men and women.

BACKGROUND: The age-related increase in blood pressure frequently observed in men and women may be more related to deleterious alterations in physical fitness, body composition, and diet than to a true aging phenomenon. Our purposes were to: (a) characterize the relationship between age and blood pressure in normotensive men and women; (b) identify physiological predictors of the age-related increase in blood pressure; and (c) examine whether the relationship between age and blood pressure persists after controlling for differences in these predictor variables. METHODS: Three hundred and sixty four Caucasian men (17-80 yr) and 215 Caucasian women (18-81 yr) were characterized for supine resting blood pressure, peak oxygen consumption, body composition, body fat distribution, plasma insulin and glucose concentrations, and nutritional intake. RESULTS: In men, the relationship between age and mean arterial pressure (MAP) (r = .25, p < .01) was no longer significant (partial r = .07, p = .20; 0.03 mmHg increase per year) after four predictor variables of MAP (fat mass, sum of 9 skinfolds, alcohol intake, and supine heart rate) were statistically controlled. In women, the relationship between age and MAP (r = .44, p < .01) no longer existed in women younger than 62 years of age (partial r = .06, p = .46; .04 mmHg increase per year) after three predictor variables of MAP (waist-to-thigh ratio, supine heart rate, and alcohol intake) were held constant, whereas in women older than 62 the relationship persisted (partial r = .37, p < .01; 0.9 mmHg increase per year). CONCLUSION: In healthy Caucasian men and women between 17-81 years of age: (a) The relationship between MAP and age was stronger in women than in men, primarily due to an accelerated increase in MAP in women older than 62 years of age; (b) the age-related increase in MAP in men was primarily related to an increase in body fatness, whereas in women the distribution of fat was the primary factor; and (c) after the influence of the predictor variables of MAP were controlled, the relationship between MAP and age persisted in women beyond 62 years of age, but not in women younger than age 62 or in men of any age.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of functional impairment in residents of assisted-living facilities: the Maryland Assisted Living study.

BACKGROUND: Assisted living is a popular residential option for older individuals, yet little research has been done on people choosing this option. This study examines predictors of functional impairment in assisted living residents in the domains of cognition, mood, and health. METHODS: An experienced team of neuropsychiatrists, nurses, and technicians using a number of cognitive, behavioral, health, and functional status tests and a cross-sectional study design assessed 198 residents of 22 assisted living facilities in Maryland. Data from these evaluations were used in univariate and multiple regression models to identify predictors of functional impairment, operationalized as the sum of the scores on two scales, one measuring impairment in basic activities of daily living and one measuring impairment in instrumental activities of daily living. RESULTS: Greater cognitive impairment, worse depression, and worse medical health were significant independent predictors of functional impairment, together explaining a sizeable portion of the variance (adjusted R2=0.434). None of the demographic variables examined individually, including age and education, was predictive of functional impairment. In an analysis of specific cognitive domains, executive dysfunction, impairment of visuospatial skills, and amnesia were significant predictors of impairment, whereas inattention was not. CONCLUSION: Executive dysfunction, apraxia, memory impairment, depression, and general medical health are all significant predictors of functional impairment in assisted living residents, with executive dysfunction being the strongest. These results may be instrumental in developing a more efficient model of care for residents of assisted living facilities, one based on having accurate predictive models of degree of impairment.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2004

The effect of the duration of follow-up in mortality analysis: the temporal pattern of different predictors.

OBJECTIVES: This study presents a model of the mechanisms affecting how time since baseline affects the correlation between mortality and commonly used predictors. METHODS: In 1986, 421 persons (aged 75 years or older) in a Swedish community were interviewed. Fifteen-year mortality rates were analyzed by using hazard regressions. Rather than using average risk over the whole follow-up time, this study looks at temporal differences in predictor strength. RESULTS: All studied health variables, living conditions, and life satisfaction were much stronger predictors of mortality during the first 1 or 2 years of follow-up than during later years. Gender, social contacts, and mental status were about equally correlated to mortality throughout the period. DISCUSSION: Of the presented mechanisms affecting predictive strength, results suggest the importance of the instability of predictors over time. Especially in old populations, predictors that can change rapidly (e.g., health) are strongest for the short term, revealing a lower average mortality risk for longer follow-ups. Rather stable variables (e.g., gender or social contacts) are not affected by the length of follow-up. When average risk is studied over a longer follow-up, insignificant results may hide significant effects during a part of the follow-up. These findings are relevant for studies that examine any kind of outcome after a follow-up.

Aged↗

PubMed1982

Predictors of retirement.

Predictors of retirement among men were analyzed using data from seven longitudinal studies, multiple definitions of retirement, multivariate analyses, and unbiased statistical techniques. Results show that the predictors of retirement vary depending on how retirement is defined. The strongest predictors of objective retirement among men over age 65 (i.e., employed less than full-time and receiving a pension) are structural factors such as socioeconomic status and job characteristics. The strongest predictors of early retirement (i.e., retiring before age 65) and of age at retirement include both structural factors and subjective factors, characteristics are more important predictors than all the others combined.

Aged↗

PubMed1990

Predictors of observed sleep/wakefulness in residents in long-term care.

This cross-sectional study investigated predictors of sleep/wakefulness in residents in a skilled care nursing facility. Sleep/wakefulness was defined behaviorally by observations made four times an hour over four 12-hour observation periods. Predictors studied were mental status, functional capacity, relative likelihood of cardiovascular/respiratory, musculoskeletal, and endocrine disease, psychotropic medication intake, and presence of sleep apnea. Results based on 39 residents indicated that sleep apnea was a positive consistent predictor of observed sleep in the nursing home. Apnea generally was unrelated to other predictors. We discuss these findings in terms of the viability of this technique to study sleep as well as other potential predictors of sleep/wakefulness in elderly institutionalized patients.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Day 3 serum inhibin B and FSH and age as predictors of assisted reproduction treatment outcome.

Recent reports investigating the value of basal inhibin B determination as a predictor of ovarian reserve and assisted reproduction treatment have led to discordant results. This study was undertaken to further assess the relative power of day 3 inhibin B and follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) (defined before treatment) and the woman's age both as single and combined predictors of ovarian response and pregnancy in an in-vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) programme. A total of 120 women undergoing their first cycle of IVF or ICSI was included. Forty consecutive cycles cancelled because of poor follicular response were initially selected. As a control group, the nearest completed IVF/ICSI cycles before and after each cancelled cycle (i.e. the closest cycles in temporal relationship to the index cycle) were used. Mean age and basal FSH concentrations were significantly higher in the cancelled than in the control group (P: < 0.01 and P: < 0.001 respectively), whereas basal inhibin B was significantly higher in the latter (P: < 0.05). The association of basal FSH (with an accuracy or predictive value of ovarian response of 79%) with cancellation rate was significant, independent of, and stronger than the effects of age and inhibin B (P: < 0.05). Any two or all three of these variables studied did not improve the predictive value of FSH alone. Woman's age was the only variable independently associated with pregnancy rate. It is concluded that the stronger predictors of success in patients undergoing their first IVF/ICSI treatment cycle are age and basal FSH rather than inhibin B. Basal FSH concentration was a better predictor of cancellation rate than age, but age was a stronger predictor of pregnancy rate.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

HIV-1 subtype E progression among northern Thai couples: traditional and non-traditional predictors of survival.

BACKGROUND: In the continuing effort to introduce antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings, there is a need to understand differences between natural history of HIV in different populations and to identify feasible clinical measures predictive of survival. METHODS: We examined predictors of survival among 836 heterosexuals who were infected with HIV subtype CRF01_AE in Thailand. RESULTS: From 1993 to 1999, 269 (49.4%) men and 65 (25.7%) women died. The median time from the estimated seroconversion to death was 7.8 years (95% confidence interval 7.0-9.1). Men and women with enrolment CD4 counts <200 cells/microl had about 2 and 11 times greater risk of death than those with CD4 counts of 200-500 and >500, respectively. Measurements available in resource-limited settings, including total lymphocyte count (TLC), anaemia, and low body mass index (BMI), also predicted survival. Men with two or more of these predictors had a median survival of 0.8 (0.5-1.8) years, compared with 2.7 (1.9-3.3) years for one predictor and 4.9 (4.1-5.2) years for no predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The time from HIV infection to death appears shorter among this Thai population than among antiretroviral naive Western populations. CD4 count and viral load (VL) were strong, independent predictors of survival. When CD4 count and VL are unavailable, individuals at high risk for shortened HIV survival may be identified by a combination of low TLC, anaemia, and low BMI. This combination of accessible clinical measures of the disease stage may be useful for medical management in resource-limited settings.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1996

Anthropometric variables as predictors for duration of action of atracurium-induced neuromuscular block.

Reports concerning duration of action of atracurium in obese patients are conflicting. The aim of this study was to evaluate different anthropometric variables as predictors for duration of action of atracurium-induced block. We studied 127 female patients (total body weight 46-119 kg) anesthetized with midazolam, fentanyl, thiopental, nitrous oxide, and halothane. Twelve different anthropometric variables were evaluated as predictors for duration of action. Linear, least-square, regression analyses were used. There was a significant correlation between each of the 12 variables and the duration of action. The predictors with the greatest correlation coefficients for duration of action of the atracurium induction dose (0.5 mg/kg) were total body weight divided by surface area (r2 = 0.284, P < 0.0001), body mass index (r2 = 0.265, P < 0.0001), and total body weight (r2 = 0.264, P < 0.0001). The most significant predictors for the duration of action of the first supplemental atracurium dose (0.15 mg/kg) were total body weight divided by surface area (r2 = 0.170, P < 0.0001) and total body weight (r2 = 0.160, P < 0.0001). We propose that the atracurium dose should be reduced with 0.23 mg for each kilogram of total body weight above 70 kg. We conclude that the duration of action of atracurium block is prolonged in obese patients, and that atracurium dose in milligrams per kilogram of total body weight should be reduced in these patients. Total body weight divided by the surface area and total body weight were the best predictors for duration of action of atracurium-induced neuromuscular block.

Adult↗