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Estimation of expected quality adjusted survival by cross-sectional survey.

To compare both mortality and quality of life (QOL) across different illnesses, we propose an estimator to calculate the expected quality adjusted survival (QAS) by multiplying the QOL into the survival function. While the survival function can be determined by the usual life table method, the QOL data can be collected by a cross-sectional survey among patients who are currently surviving. The area under the QAS curve is thus the expected utility of health of the specific illness, which may take a common unit of quality adjusted life year ready for outcome evaluation and policy decision. A simulation is performed to demonstrate that the proposed estimator and its standard error are relatively accurate. The limitations and guidelines for using this estimator are also discussed.

Bias↗

Risk factors for corneal graft failure and rejection in penetrating keratoplasty.

PURPOSE: To evaluate risk factors for graft failure and allograft rejection after penetrating keratoplasty (PK). METHODS: We retrospectively studied clinical results of PKs in terms of graft survival and rejection-free graft survival rates. PKs were done on 271 eyes between 1987 and 1997. Clinical results were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier's life table method and the log-rank test. Relative risks and adjusted survival probabilities for each value of the factor were compared with the risk for a specified reference value. RESULTS: The overall rates of graft survival and rejection-free graft survival in 10 years after PK were 79.3% and 77.9%, respectively. Higher relative risk of graft failure was associated with corneal vascularization (relative risk for within one quadrant = 1.67, two quadrants = 2.37, three or more quadrants = 3.39), regraft (relative risk for one failed previously graft = 2.08, two or more failed previously graft = 2.65), aphakia (relative risk = 2.17) or pseudophakia (relative risk = 3.02), presence of anterior synechia (relative risk = 2.91), presence of posterior synechia (relative risk = 2.56), long (more than 85 minutes) operation time (relative risk = 2.20), and older (more than 50 years) recipient age (relative risk = 2.38). Higher relative risk of rejection was associated with corneal vascularization (relative risk for within one quadrant = 2.35, two quadrants = 2.03, three or more quadrants = 2.63), long (more than 85 minutes) operation time (relative risk = 1.47), and younger (less than 60 years) donor age (relative risk = 2.10). There was no association between graft failure or allograft rejection and graft size or suture technique, respectively. CONCLUSION: The risk factors for graft failure after PK were corneal vascularization, regraft, aphakia or pseudophakia, presence of anterior synechia, presence of posterior synechia, long operation time, and older recipient age. The risk factors after PK for allograft rejection were corneal vascularization, long operation time, and younger donor age.

Adolescent↗

Acute myocardial infarction in patients with end-stage renal disease.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease is the major cause of death in dialysis patients, with 22% of cardiac deaths attributed to acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Few data exist on survival of dialysis patients after AMI. METHODS: The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) database of 627,983 patients was used to examine outcomes of dialysis patients hospitalized from 1977 to 1995 for AMI. Long-term survival was estimated by life-table method and independent predictors of survival were examined in a comorbidity-adjusted Cox model. In preliminary analyses we examined the utilization of thrombolytic therapy for AMI in 1991 to 1995 and separately analyzed outcomes of dialysis patients hospitalized 1977 to 1994 at our own institution. RESULTS: There were 34,189 dialysis patients with AMI. The in-hospital death was 26%. The all-cause mortality was 59% at one year and 73% at two years. The one- and two-year cardiac mortality was 41% and 52%, respectively. Patients with AMI 1990 to 1995 (vs. 1977 to 1984) had decreased mortality with RR (relative risk) 0.87 (0.83, 0.90). There were 16,063 patients with AMI 1991 to 1995 receiving no reperfusion therapy, and only 95 patients received intravenous thrombolytics, of whom 16 received concurrent coronary revascularization. At our institution, the in-hospital death for 113 dialysis patients with AMI was 29% (52% mortality for transmural MI, 16% mortality for nontransmural MI). CONCLUSION: We conclude that dialysis patients with AMI suffer dismal long-term survival. Based on preliminary data, thrombolytic therapy appears to be under-utilized in dialysis patients with AMI in the United States.

Follow-Up Studies↗

[Clinical analysis of salivary malignant pleomorphic adenoma--a report of 95 cases].

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Malignant pleomorphic adenoma is rare with extensive location, which makes it difficult to evaluate the efficacy of the treatments. This study was to summarize the clinical features of salivary malignant pleomorphic adenoma, and thus to explore the treatment principle and efficacy of the treatment. METHODS: Clinical data of 95 salivary malignant pleomorphic adenoma patients, treated in Cancer Center, Sun Yat-sen University from May 1970 to Oct. 2000, were analyzed retrospectively. The overall cumulative survival rate was estimated using life table method by SPSS10.0 software. Survival curves were compared with Gehan method. RESULTS: The 5-, 10-, and 15-year overall survival rates of the 95 patients were (64.9+/-4.9)%, (56.3+/-5.4)%, and (47.8+/-6.1)%, respectively. The 5-and 10-year disease-specific survival rates for the patients received surgery (51 cases), surgery plus radiotherapy (35 cases) were 76.1%, 63.7% and 69.9%, 50.8%, respectively, but the 5-and 10-year disease-specific survival rates for the patients received radiotherapy only, chemotherapy only and radiochemotherapy (4 cases) were all 0. CONCLUSIONS: Surgery or surgery-dominated multi-modality are the principal treatment modalities for salivary malignant pleomorphic adenoma. The efficacy of surgery and surgery plus radiotherapy is better than non-surgery treatments.

Adenoma, Pleomorphic↗

Frequency and clinical significance of cytogenetic abnormalities in pediatric T-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a report from the Children's Cancer Group.

PURPOSE: Nonrandom chromosomal translocations are frequently observed in pediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Specific translocations, such as t(4;11) and t(9;22), identify subgroups of B-lineage ALL patients who have an increased risk of treatment failure. The current study was conducted to determine the prognostic significance of chromosomal translocations in T-lineage ALL patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included 169 children with newly diagnosed T-lineage ALL enrolled between 1988 and 1995 on risk-adjusted protocols of the Children's Cancer Group (CCG) who had centrally reviewed cytogenetics data. Outcome analyses used standard life-table methods. RESULTS: Presenting features for the current cohort were similar to those of concurrently enrolled patients for whom cytogenetic data were not accepted on central review. The majority of patients (80.5%) were assigned to CCG protocols for high-risk ALL and 86.4% had pseudodiploid (n = 80) or normal diploid (n = 66) karyotypes; modal chromosome number was not a significant prognostic factor. Overall, 103 of 169 (61%) patients had an abnormal karyotype, including 31 with del(6q), 29 with 14q11 breakpoints, 15 with del(9p), 11 with trisomy 8, nine with 11q23 breakpoints, nine with 14q32 translocations, and eight with 7q32-q36 breakpoints. Thirteen patients had the specific 14q11 translocation t(11;14)(p13;q11) and all were classified as poor risk. Patients with any of these translocations had outcomes similar to those with normal diploid karyotypes. CONCLUSION: Chromosomal abnormalities, including specific nonrandom translocations, were frequently observed in a large group of children with T-lineage ALL, but were not significant prognostic factors for this cohort. Thus, contemporary intensive treatment programs result in favorable outcomes for the majority of T-lineage ALL patients, regardless of karyotypic abnormalities, and such features do not identify patients at higher risk for relapse.

Adolescent↗

Mortality and survival in myasthenia gravis: a Danish population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To study mortality and survival of patients with myasthenia gravis. METHODS: 290 patients with myasthenia gravis were studied, including 212 incident cases identified during a comprehensive epidemiological study of myasthenia gravis in western Denmark 1975-89. Follow up was performed on 31 December 1994. Survival curves were constructed using the life table method. Patient data were compared with data from the public Danish population statistics. Death certificates were provided from the National Registry of Death. RESULTS: The annual average crude mortality rate was 1.8 per million (range 1.5-2.2). The myasthenia gravis related mortality rate (myasthenia gravis as underlying or contributory cause) was 1.4 per million (range 1.1-1.8). The age specific mortality rates were low below 50 years. After this age the mortality increased with age in both sexes; after 60 years more rapidly in men than in women. The overall survival rates three, five, 10, and 20 years from diagnosis were 85%, 81%, 69%, and 63% respectively. The survival of both sexes was shorter than that of the corresponding Danish population. Old age at diagnosis, a classification in Osserman-Genkins group IIB or III, and the presence of a thymoma were associated with a less favourable prognosis. The three, five, 10, and 20 year survival rates of thymectomised patients were 94%, 94%, 86%, and 79% respectively. The corresponding figures for the non-thymectomised patients were 78%, 71%, 56%, and 51%. A Cox regression analysis showed that this apparently significant effect of thymectomy was because the thymectomised patients were younger than the non-thymectomised patients. Furthermore, at the time of diagnosis of myasthenia gravis the non-thymectomised patients had a higher frequency of serious conditions associated with myasthenia gravis than the thymectomised patients. CONCLUSION: Patients with myasthenia gravis generally have a relative good prognosis although their survival is shorter than that of the corresponding population. Old age, a classification in Osserman-Genkins group III, and the presence of a thymoma are associated with a less favourable prognosis. In this study, the apparently significant effect of thymectomy was because the thymectomised patients were younger than non-thymectomised patients and because the non-thymctomised patients had a higher frequency of serious conditions associated with myasthenia gravis.

Age Distribution↗

The influence of unruptured intracranial aneurysms on life expectancy in relation to their size at the time of detection and to age.

A theoretical evaluation of the lifetime probabilities of different outcomes in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UA) has been made using a life table method. The calculations were performed for aneurysm presenting ages from 20 to 70 years of age for men and women assuming an annual risk of aneurysm rupture of 1%, 2% and 3% and a rate of mortality after rupture of 50%. At 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 years after the diagnosis of an UA the probability of survival without bleeding is reduced below the expected probability of survival according to the life tables by the following percentages (assuming an annual risk of bleeding of 2%): 19%, 34%, 46%, 56%, 64% and 72%, respectively. A survey of the lifetime probabilities of four different outcomes for patients with an UA indicates a substantial reduction in life expectancy after the diagnosis of an UA. In most ages the surgical risks are more than balanced by the risks associated with an untreated unruptured aneurysm.

Adult↗

Huntington disease in Georgia: age at onset.

Age at onset of motor symptoms was collected on 611 persons affected with Huntington disease (HD) among 3,201 persons "at risk" in 108 kindreds. Life-table estimates correcting for truncated intervals of observation (censoring) produced a median age at onset 5 years older than the observed mean. Risk estimates of HD onset for persons at risk, as calculated by life-table methods, were significantly higher for older ages than were estimates based on the observed distribution of onsets. Age-specific incidence was found to be highest at age 35-64 years, a considerably older age interval than suggested by previous estimates. The offspring of affected males had significantly younger onset than did offspring of affected females, and a trend suggesting and excess of paternal descent among juvenile-onset cases was present. Life-table analysis is contrasted with analyses of (a) the observed distribution of age at onset and (b) remote cohorts age 63 or older at the time of data collection. The implications for risk prediction, genetic counseling, and genetic analysis of HD are discussed.

Adult↗

Basilic vein transposition fistula: a good option for maintaining hemodialysis access site options?

PURPOSE: The primary use of autogenous arteriovenous access for chronic hemodialysis is recommended by the National Kidney Foundation-Dialysis Outcomes Quality Initiative practice guidelines. We review the outcomes of basilic vein transposition (BVT) to assess its value as a primary upper arm arteriovenous access option. METHODS: A retrospective review of 56 patients undergoing BVT was performed. Thirty patients were men; average age was 56 years. Etiology of end-stage renal disease, complications, and time to maturation were tabulated. Primary and secondary patency rates were determined by using life table methods. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to assess risk factors for fistula failure. RESULTS: Renal failure was associated with diabetes in 32 (57%) patients, and BVT was the primary access procedure in 22 (39%) patients. Perioperative complications occurred in 5 (9%) patients and included hematoma (n = 3), myocardial infarction (n = 1), and death (n = 1). The average time to maturation was 74 days (range, 12-265 days), and maturation failure occurred in 21 (38%) patients. Logistic regression analysis showed that age older than 60 years was associated with poorer maturation and patency rates. On an intent-to-treat basis, 1-year primary and secondary patencies were 35% and 47%, respectively, but only 18% and 28%, respectively, for age >60 years. Forty-two percent of failed BVT were subsequently replaced with a prosthetic graft by using the same upper arm vessels. CONCLUSION: BVT frequently do not mature in patients older than 60 years, which compromises its utility as a primary access. However, fistulas that mature provide acceptable patency rates, and subsequent conversion to a prosthetic access is frequently possible. Selective use of BVT might improve the utilization of available access sites.

Arm↗

Infragenicular polytetrafluoroethylene bypass with distal vein cuffs for limb salvage: a contemporary series.

HYPOTHESIS: Infragenicular polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-venous cuff bypass grafting provides acceptable graft patency and limb salvage rates for limb salvage. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical review of a consecutive series. SETTING: Vascular surgical practice during the interval October 1, 2000, to September 1, 2004. PATIENTS: Fifty-one male and 49 female patients whose mean age was 76.9 years were operated on for tissue loss (67%), chronic rest pain (28%), and severe claudication (6%). Fifty-two percent of patients were diabetic and 49% had undergone previous leg bypass surgery. All patients had absent or inadequate greater saphenous vein, and 84 patients had absent or inadequate arm vein. INTERVENTIONS: One hundred five infragenicular PTFE bypasses were performed in these 100 patients. Distal targets were the infragenicular popliteal (40), posterior tibial (35), anterior tibial (16), and peroneal arteries (14). Sixty-eight venous cuffs were constructed from lesser saphenous vein. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Graft patency, limb salvage, and patient survival were analyzed. RESULTS: Twelve early graft failures resulted in 7 leg amputations. The mean +/- SE 3-year primary patency and limb salvage rates were 64.4% +/- 12.8% and 74.4% +/- 11.9%, respectively. Perioperative mortality was 2.9% and 3-year survival was 38%. Graft follow-up ranged from 1 to 47 months with a mean of 13 months using life-table methods. CONCLUSIONS: For patients requiring arterial revascularization for limb salvage, in which autologous venous conduit is unavailable, distal venous cuff-PTFE bypass provides acceptable patency and limb salvage rates when viewed in the context of short life expectancy for these elderly patients.

Aged↗

The mortality predictive power of discharge electrocardiogram after first acute myocardial infarction.

The prognostic value of discharge ECG was studied in 457 patients after their first acute myocardial infarction. Thirteen different ECG variables were studied on the discharge ECG. When cumulative 4-year survival rates were calculated by standard life-table method for each variable individually, the following variables had statistically significant prognostic power: PTF (P terminal force), PTFA (P terminal frontal axis), AF (atrial fibrillation), ST depression, ST elevation, QRS duration, and the combination block (LBBB/RBBB + LAHB/LPHB). The variables with no statistically significant predictive power were: QTc, LBBB or RBBB, LAHB or LPHB, AV block, T wave angle, T negativity, and sigma R. The relative risks for the most important variables in the discrete life-table model were: PTF 3.4, QRS duration 3.3, ST depression 2.6, PTFA 2.5, and ST elevation 2.2. In further analysis a model with only three ECG variables (PTF, ST depression, and ST elevation) was developed which stratified the study population in categories with 1.9% to 75.5% estimated 4-year survival rates.

Adult↗

Comparison of early and late mortality in men and women after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in Stockholm, Sweden, 1980 to 1989.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to analyze early and late mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) in relation to gender. BACKGROUND: Early mortality after CABG is generally higher in women than in men, but the causes are controversial. Few studies have investigated long-term mortality after CABG in relation to gender. METHODS: In all, 3,326 men and 607 women underwent isolated CABG in Stockholm from 1980 to 1989. Mortality for these patients was followed by means of the National Cause of Death Register, from the time of operation until the end of 1990. Survival was evaluated by life-table methods and by proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Early mortality (within 30 days) was 3% in women and 1.7% in men, corresponding to a relative risk of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 3.0) in women compared with men. When age and body surface area were taken into account, the relative risk was 1.0 (95% CI 0.5 to 2.0), which was not markedly different but multivariate analyses that included hypertension, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular function and number of diseased vessels. Only small gender differences in mortality were observed for 5 years after the operation among those who survived for 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that men and women run similar risks of early and late mortality after CABG when patient characteristics are taken into account.

Adult↗

First steps in analysing NHS waiting times: avoiding the 'stationary and closed population' fallacy.

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the effect of excluding incomplete observations and competing events when calculating cross-sectional measures of NHS waiting times, and to obtain a more accurate estimate of the 'time-to-admission' of those listed on NHS waiting lists using life-table methods. The official 'times-since-enrollment' of all elective 'admissions' in England, 1 July to 31 December 1994 inclusive, were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics. The official 'times-to-census' of all those on a waiting list in England at 30 September 1994 were obtained from aggregated KH07 data. The percentage waiting at least three months, at least six months etc., was calculated separately for each data set and compared with a period life-table derived from the combined data. The cumulative likelihood of elective admission is markedly overestimated across the whole range of waiting times. The experience of those still waiting, those removed from the list, those suspended or deferred and those put to the back of the queue is not taken into account in the calculation of official waiting times. The Department of Health currently presents the 'time-since-enrollment' of those admitted as though it indicates how long all patients can expect to wait for admission. The consequent bias in published summary statistics incorrectly quantifies the real experience of patients. It is recommended that calculation of waiting times from KH07 census counts and Hospital Episode Statistics be reconsidered in the light of what patients, clinicians, managers and politicians need to know about treatment delay.

Bias↗

Efficacy and complications after trabeculectomy with mitomycin C in normal-tension glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of and complications after trabeculectomy using mitomycin C (MMC) in Japanese normal-tension glaucoma (NTG) patients by a retrospective analysis based on the Kaplan-Meier life table method. METHODS: Clinical records of 39 NTG patients who underwent trabeculectomy with 0.04% MMC and had postoperative follow-up periods of 3 years or more (50.5 +/- 8.4 months, mean +/- SD) were reviewed. Postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) at every 1 or 2 months, complications, visual acuity, and visual field at every 6 months were recorded. RESULTS: IOP significantly decreased from 15.9 +/- 1.9 preoperatively to 8-11 mmHg throughout the postoperative follow-up period (P < 0.0001). The life table analysis, in which failure of IOP control was defined as an IOP above a level either 30% or 20% lower than the preoperative IOP at three consecutive visits, showed a cumulative survival rate of 39.4 +/- 7.8% (mean +/- SEM) or 41.3 +/- 8.9%, respectively, at 4 years after surgery. Mean deviation of the visual field results did not significantly change (P > 0.5). The cumulative survival rate from postoperative late-onset hypotony was 74.7 +/- 6.3% at 4 years after surgery. Postoperative complications observed were shallow anterior chamber (six eyes), choroidal detachment (nine eyes), hypotonous maculopathy (seven eyes), bleb leak (one eye), cataract development (three eyes), and blebitis (two eyes). No eyes developed endophthalmitis. CONCLUSIONS: In NTG patients, trabeculectomy with MMC showed significant efficacy in reducing IOP up to 4 years after surgery. Since risks of postoperative complications are unavoidable, indications for surgery should be carefully considered, and careful follow-up is necessary to avoid severe postoperative complications.

Antibiotics, Antineoplastic↗

Survival patterns of female breast cancer patients in the Estonian SSR in 1968-1981.

Survival of 4090 female breast cancer patients in the Estonian SSR in 1968--1981 was studied on the basis of the republic-wide, population-based Estonian Cancer Registry. Using the life table method, the overall estimated 5-year relative survival rate was 55.9%. Survival was related to stage of disease and patient's age at diagnosis. Breast cancer, the most frequent malignancy in females in Estonia, considerable reduces patient's life expectancy. During the entire 13-year follow-up period the patient population under study experienced excess cancer mortality.

Actuarial Analysis↗

[The study of lymph nodes metastasis and staging of carcinoma of the gastric cardia by computer].

A total of 605 cases of the carcinoma of gastric cardia resected were analysed univariantly using program of analysis for risk states and survival analysis by life table method on IBM-PC computer. The significance of lymph nodes metastasis in different situations concerning prognosis was evaluated. Our results suggest that the lymph nodes with metastasis at the lower part of esophagus should be grouped as N 1 in the TNM staging system for carcinoma of the gastric cardia. We propose a new staging method, using number of lymph nodes metastasis and degree of tumorous infiltration to the adjacent organs as main indices, for the advanced carcinoma of the gastric cardia clinically and pathologically.

Cardia↗

Isolated bypass to the superior mesenteric artery for intestinal ischemia.

OBJECTIVE: A number of reports indicate revascularization for intestinal ischemia should include the superior mesenteric artery (SMA) and the celiac artery. However, no controlled or randomized studies have proven this approach superior to SMA bypass alone. We report our results using bypass to only the SMA for intestinal ischemia. DESIGN: Retrospective review with mean follow-up of 40 months (range, 2 to 110 months). SETTING: University medical center and Veterans Affairs hospital. PATIENTS/METHODS: The records of patients who underwent intestinal revascularization of the SMA alone from 1982 through 1993 were reviewed. Patients were assessed for indication for operation, operative technique, perioperative mortality, and long-term outcome. The SMA grafts were examined for patency within the last 6 months using duplex scanning or arteriography. Patient survival and graft patency rates were calculated using life-table methods. RESULTS: Twenty-nine bypasses to only the SMA were performed in 26 patients (16 female and 10 male; mean age, 59 years; age range, 13 to 81 years). Indication for operation was symptomatic chronic mesenteric ischemia in 23 cases and acute intestinal ischemia in five cases. One bypass was performed for asymptomatic SMA occlusion. There were three perioperative deaths (10% mortality rate), all in patients with acute intestinal ischemia and previous mesenteric arterial surgery. Life-table 4-year primary graft patency and patient survival rates were 89% and 82%, respectively. Symptomatic improvement was maintained in all patients available for follow-up. CONCLUSION: Revascularization of only the SMA for intestinal ischemia provides excellent graft patency with acceptable perioperative mortality and long-term patient survival. The SMA bypass alone for intestinal ischemia appears as successful as bypasses to multiple visceral vessels.

Adolescent↗

Incidence of depression in the Stirling County Study: historical and comparative perspectives.

BACKGROUND: The Stirling County Study provides a 40-year perspective on the epidemiology of psychiatric disorders in an adult population in Atlantic Canada. Across samples selected in 1952, 1970 and 1992 current prevalence of depression was stable. This paper concerns time trends in annual incidence as assessed through cohorts selected from the first two samples. METHODS: Consistent interview data were analysed by a computerized diagnostic algorithm. The cohorts consisted of subjects at risk for a first depression: Cohort-1 (N = 575) was followed 1952-1970; Cohort-2 (N = 639) was followed 1970-1992. Life-table methods were used to calculate incidence rates and proportional hazards procedures were used for statistical assessment. RESULTS: Average annual incidence of depression was 4.5 per 1000 for Cohort-1 and 3.7 for Cohort-2. Differences by gender, age and time were not statistically significant. The stability of incidence and the similarity of distribution by gender and age in these two cohorts corresponds to findings about the two early samples. In contrast, current prevalence in the recent sample was distributed differently and showed an increase among women under 45 years. CONCLUSIONS: The stability of the incidence of depression emphasizes the distinctive characteristics of current prevalence in the recent sample and suggests that the dominance of women in rates of depression may have occurred among those born after the Second World War. The results offer partial support for the interpretation of an increase in depression based on retrospective data in other recent studies but they indicate that the increase is specific to women.

Adolescent↗