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PubMed2000

Predictors of hypothermia during spinal anesthesia.

BACKGROUND: Body temperature often is ignored during regional anesthesia, despite evidence that hypothermia occurs commonly. Because hypothermia is associated with adverse clinical outcomes, it is important to recognize predictors of hypothermia and to monitor and control body temperature in patients at risk. The current study was designed to determine the predictors of core hypothermia in patients receiving spinal anesthesia for radical retropubic prostatectomy. METHODS: Forty-four patients undergoing radical retropubic prostatectomy were studied. A lumbar intrathecal injection of 18-22 mg bupivacaine, 0.75%, with 20 microg fentanyl was given. No active warming measures were used other than intravenous fluid warming. The following clinical variables were assessed as potential predictors of core (tympanic) temperature at admission to the postanesthesia care unit: duration of surgery, average ambient operating room temperature, body habitus, age, and spinal blockade level. RESULTS: The mean core temperature at admission to the postanesthesia care unit was 35.1 +/- 0.6 degrees C (range, 33.6-36.3 degrees C). Duration of surgery, ambient operating room temperature, and body habitus were not predictors of hypothermia. A high level of spinal blockade and increasing age were predictors of hypothermia. For each incremental increase in block level, core temperature decreased by 0.15 degrees C, and for each increase in age, core temperature decreased by 0.3 degrees C. CONCLUSIONS: Although high-level spinal blockade has been associated with decreased thermoregulatory thresholds, no previous study has shown that a higher level of blockade is associated with a greater magnitude of core hypothermia in the clinical setting. As with general anesthesia, advanced age is associated with hypothermia during spinal anesthesia.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Early predictors of mechanical ventilation in Guillain-Barré syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Although mechanical ventilation is required in 30% of patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome, early predictors of this treatment remain unknown. DESIGN: Analysis of two cohorts of patients enrolled in two multicenter randomized clinical trials. SETTING: French intensive care and neurologic units. MEASUREMENTS: Demographic, neurologic, and biologic data; vital capacity; and time of onset, admission, and endotracheal mechanical ventilation were collected. RESULTS: Amid 722 consecutive adults not ventilated at admission, endotracheal mechanical ventilation was required in 313 (43%) patients. Multivariate analyses identified six predictors of endotracheal mechanical ventilation: time from onset to admission of <7 days (odds ratio, 2.51), inability to cough (odds ratio, 9.09), inability to stand (odds ratio, 2.53), inability to lift the elbows (odds ratio, 2.99) or head (odds ratio, 4.34), and liver enzyme increases (odds ratio, 2.09). In the 196 (27%) patients whose vital capacity was measured, time from onset to admission of <7 days (odds ratio, 5.00), inability to lift the head (odds ratio, 5.00), and vital capacity <60% (odds ratio, 2.86) predicted endotracheal mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with at least one of these predictors should be monitored in an intensive care unit. Mechanical ventilation was required in >85% of patients with at least four predictors from the first multivariate model and in 85% of patients with all three predictors from the second multivariate model. In these patients at high risk of respiratory failure, the value of early mechanical ventilation may deserve investigation.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of internalizing symptoms among very low birth weight young women.

As part of a longitudinal study of the outcomes of very low birth weight children (<1.5 kg), we sought to examine the perinatal, childhood, and young adult predictors of internalizing symptoms among very low birth weight young women and their normal birth weight controls. The cohort included 125 very low birth weight and 124 normal birth weight 20-year-old subjects. Perinatal, childhood, and young adult predictors were examined via stepwise multivariate analyses. Results revealed very low birth weight to be a significant predictor of parent-reported internalizing symptoms of their daughters but only among white subjects who had mothers with high levels of psychological distress. Additional significant predictors of 20-year internalizing symptoms included child I.Q. and internalizing symptoms at age 8 years and family expressiveness. When the results were analyzed according to the young adult self-report, additional predictors of internalizing symptoms included a history of asthma and exposure to violence. Perinatal risk factors were not found to be predictive of internalizing symptoms at age 20 years. Future studies should prospectively examine social and environmental factors associated with the neonatal intensive care experience that might explain the effect of very low birth weight on later psychopathology.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Treatment predictors of extrapyramidal side effects in patients with tardive dyskinesia: results from Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study 394.

Predictors for the development of tardive dyskinesia (TD) have been studied extensively over the years, yet there are few studies of predictors of the course of TD after it has developed. Moreover, few studies have examined predictors of the course of other extrapyramidal side effects (EPS) in patients maintained on neuroleptics. The purpose of this study was to determine which modifiable variables are important in the prediction of EPS in patients with persistent TD over a period of as long as 2 years. One hundred fifty-eight patients enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study 394 were included in this study. A linear mixed-effects (LME) analysis to estimate the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale score (for TD severity), Simpson-Angus Scale (for parkinsonism severity), and Barnes Akathisia Scale at any given time after intake assessment was performed. The severity of each of the TD and EPS outcomes at any given visit was predicted by their respective baseline severity scores. Additional predictors of a favorable course of TD included lower doses of antipsychotic medications and use of anticholinergic medications. Other predictors of a favorable course of EPS included younger age and the use of atypical antipsychotic medication (for rigidity) and the use of anticholinergic medication (for tremor). These findings indicate that clinician-modifiable factors related to medication usage can influence the outcome of TD and EPS in patients with persistent TD.

Adult↗

PubMed1996

Predictors of outcome in blunt diaphragm rupture.

OBJECTIVE: Identify outcome predictors in blunt diaphragm rupture (BDR). DESIGN: Retrospective chart and trauma registry review. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed records of patients with BDR from January 1987 through May 1994 for outcomes of mortality, intensive care unit stay, hospital stay, and ventilator days. Predictors tested were age, sex, Injury Severity Score (ISS), diagnostic delay, rupture side, head injury, and associated injuries. Stepwise regression models were developed and tested on an additional data base of 115 BDR records from four trauma centers. RESULTS: Thirty-two patients were identified. Age was the only significant predictor for all outcomes (p < 0.05). Age, ISS, and severe head injury were mortality predictors. In the larger data base, age and ISS remained predictive of mortality, but age was not predictive of morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Age and ISS are predictive of BDR mortality. No morbidity predictor was validated in the larger data base. These data emphasize that predictive models from a single institution should be applied cautiously.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Comparison of the Injury Severity Score and ICD-9 diagnosis codes as predictors of outcome in injury: analysis of 44,032 patients.

INTRODUCTION: Appropriate stratification of injury severity is a critical tool in the assessment of the treatment and the prevention of injury. Since its inception, the Injury Severity Score (ISS) has been the generally recognized "gold standard" for anatomic injury severity assessment. However, there is considerable time and expense involved in the collection of the information required to calculate an accurate ISS. In addition, the predictive power of the ISS has been shown to be limited. Previous work has demonstrated that the anatomic information about injury contained in the International Classification of Diseases Version 9 (ICD-9) can be a significant predictor of survival in trauma patients. The goal of this study was to utilize the San Diego County Trauma Registry (SDTR), one of the nation's leading trauma registries, to compare the predictive power of the ISS with the predictive power of the information contained in the injured patients' ICD-9 diagnoses codes. It was our primary hypothesis that survival risk ratios derived from patients' ICD-9 diagnoses codes would be equal or better predictors of survival than the Injury Severity Score. The implications of such a finding would have the potential for significant cost savings in the care of injured patients. METHODS: Data for the test population were obtained from the SDTR, which contains data from 1985 through 1993 from five participating hospitals. Four data sources were utilized to estimate the expected survival rate/mortality rate for each ICD-9 code in the SDTR. These were (1) the SDTR patients themselves, (2) the North Carolina State Hospital Discharge Database, (3) the North Carolina Trauma Registry Database, and (4) the Agency for Health Care Policy Research's Health Care Utilization Project Database. Each of these data sources was separately utilized to develop a survival risk ratio (SRR) for each ICD-9 diagnoses code. The SRR was calculated by dividing the number of survivors for patients with each ICD-9 code by the total number of all patients with the particular ICD-9 diagnoses code. The four groups of SRRs derived from our four data sources were used as predictors of survival and the ability of the SRRs to predict survival was compared with the predictive power of the ISS using measures of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: During the years 1985 through 1993, complete data were available for analysis on 44,032 patients. Of these, 2,848 patients died during their hospitalization (6%). Survival risk ratios were calculated for each of the diagnoses in the data base. Logistic regression, using the SAS System for statistical analysis, was used to assess the relative predictive power of the ISS and the survival risk ratios derived from the ICD-9 diagnoses codes from each of the four data bases. The analyses demonstrated that the regression models using the SRRs were generally as good or better than ISS as predictors of survival. The predictive power of the SRRs derived from the SDTR data, the North Carolina Trauma Registry data and the Health Care Utilization Report data were the best. In a subsequent analysis, the SRR values and the ISS were added to the patient's age and the revised Trauma Scores to create new predictive models in the mode of TRISS methodology. The analyses again indicated that the models using SRRs had as good or better predictive power than the model using the ISS. CONCLUSIONS: The present study confirms previous work showing that survival risk ratios derived from injured patients' ICD-9 diagnoses codes are as good as or better than ISS as predictors of survival.

Abbreviated Injury Scale↗

PubMed1996

Clinical predictors of functioning in persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

To help clinicians better assess and treat functional disabilities in persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), the authors estimate empirical relations among biologic and physiologic variables, symptoms, and physical functioning in persons with AIDS. The sample of 305 persons with AIDS for this cross-sectional analysis came from three sites in Boston, Massachusetts: a hospital-based group practice, a human immunodeficiency virus clinic at a city hospital, and a staff-model health maintenance organization. Physical functioning, 10 AIDS-specific symptoms, and mental health were assessed by interview. Clinical diagnoses, comorbidities, health habits such as smoking, laboratory results, and selected medication use were assessed by chart review. Significant predictors of physical functioning P < 0.01, R2 = .58) in a multivariable regression model included energy/fatigue, neurologic symptoms, fever symptoms, a lower hemoglobin level, and current non-pneumonia bacterial infection. Ninety-six percent of the explained variance in physical functioning was accounted for by three symptom complexes: energy/fatigue, neurologic symptoms, and fever symptoms. Significant predictors of energy/fatigue in multivariable models included poorer mental health, lower white blood cell count, longer time since diagnosis, and weight loss (P < 0.01, R2 =.36). Significant predictors of neurologic symptoms included poorer mental health, weight loss, and no zidovudine use (P < 0.001, R2 = .30). Predictors of fever symptoms included poorer mental health, no zidovudine use, weight loss, and history of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P < 0.05, R2 = .25). In conclusion, symptom reports were strong predictors of physical functioning. Poorer mental health and weight loss were correlated consistently with worse symptoms, and not using zidovudine was correlated with worse neurologic and fever symptoms. These variables, and the others the authors identified, may represent mutable determinants of physical functioning in persons with AIDS, and potential targets for specific clinical interventions.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2001

Characteristics of adult primary care patients as predictors of future health services charges.

BACKGROUND: Utilization risk assessment is potentially useful for allocation of health care resources, but precise measurement is difficult. OBJECTIVE: Test the hypotheses that health-related quality of life (HRQOL), severity of illness, and diagnoses at a single primary care visit are comparable case-mix predictors of future 1-year charges in all clinical settings within a large health system, and that these predictors are more accurate in combination than alone. RESEARCH DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study in which subjects' characteristics were measured at baseline, and their outpatient clinic visits and charges and their inpatient hospital days and charges were tracked for 1 year. SUBJECTS: Adult primary care patients. MEASURES: Duke Health Profile for HRQOL, Duke Severity of Illness Checklist for severity of illness, and Johns Hopkins Ambulatory Care Groups for diagnostic groups classification. RESULTS: Of 1,202 patients, 84.4% had follow up in the primary care clinic, 63.2% in subspecialty clinics, 14.8% in the emergency room, and 9.6% in the hospital. Of $6,290,775 total charges, $779,037 (12.2%) was for follow-up primary care. The highest accuracy was found for predicting primary care charges, where R2 for predictors ranged from 0.083 for medical record auditor-reported severity of illness to 0.107 for HRQOL. When predictors were combined, the highest R2 of 0.125 was found for the combination of HRQOL and diagnostic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline HRQOL, severity of illness, and diagnoses were comparable predictors of 1-year health services charges in all clinical sites but most predictive for primary care charges, and were more accurate in combination than alone.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of relapse in bipolar disorder: A review.

INTRODUCTION: Bipolar disorder is the sixth leading cause of disability in the United States. Moreover, repeated episodes and non-responsiveness to treatment continue to present a significant problem, and little is known about the factors that may precipitate relapse. This article reviews the available literature on predictors of bipolar relapse. METHODS: We conducted a literature search on Medline from 1996 to March 2006, using the keywords "relapse," "recurrence," "compliance," "adherence," "life events," "kindling," and "predictors" combined with the term "bipolar disorder(s)." References from the resulting articles also supplemented the initial search. Thirty-eight articles were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Predictors of episodes include stressful life events, increased number of previous episodes, decreased interval between episodes, and persistence of affective symptoms and episodes. Factors associated with longer survival times include psychotherapy, social support, and medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Our review suggests several reliable predictors of bipolar episodes. Knowledge of these factors has significant clinical implications and could aid in treatment and prevention strategies. However, further research is clearly needed to address the limitations of the existing research and to increase our understanding of predictors of relapse, with the intent of improving quality of life and preventing episodes in patients with bipolar disorder.

Antipsychotic Agents↗

PubMed2003

Prevalence and predictors of intense, chronic, and disabling neck and back pain in the UK general population.

STUDY DESIGN: Multiphase cross-sectional survey of musculoskeletal pain. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of all reported and clinically significant spinal pain. To identify independent predictors of spinal pain. METHODS: A total of 5752 adults sampled from three general practice registers were mailed a screening questionnaire. Subjects who reported the spine as a predominant site of pain were sent a site-specific questionnaire (i.e., back or neck) that asked about severity. Prevalence estimates were calculated and extrapolated to the general population. Predictors of spinal pain were identified using logistic regression with comprehensive adjustment for confounders (including pain at other anatomic sites). RESULTS: The 1-month-period prevalence of all reported spinal pain was 29% (95% confidence interval 27-31%), of which about half was intense, half was chronic, 40% was disabling, and 20% was intense, disabling, and chronic. Most people with back (75%) or neck (89%) pain also reported pain at other sites. Age, female gender (neck pain only), high body mass index, living in an area of raised material deprivation, and south Asian ethnicity were significant predictors of spinal pain with disability. The association between body mass index and deprivation and neck pain was lost after adjustment for pain at other sites. However, even after full adjustment, obesity (OR, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.5) and high deprivation (OR, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.7) were predictors of back pain with disability. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for pain at other sites enabled assessment of whether observed associations were with spinal pain itself or with the other sites of pain. Obesity is an important independent predictor of back pain and its severity. This has implications for primary prevention. The prevalence of spinal pain with disability continues to rise into old age. This has implications for healthcare planning.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Preoperative predictors for postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis: systematic review.

STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review. OBJECTIVE: To define preoperative factors predicting clinical outcome after lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) surgery. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: LSS is the most common reason requiring lumbar spine surgery in adults older than 65 years. There are no published systematic reviews on this topic. METHODS: A literature search was done until April 30, 2005. Included were randomized controlled or controlled trials or prospective studies dealing with operated LSS. The preoperative predictors had to be presented. Included articles were assessed as high-quality (HQ) and low-quality studies. The predictors in HQ studies were considered as the main results. RESULTS: A total of 21 articles were included. Depression and walking capacity were predictors according to 2 HQ studies. Predictors reported in 1 HQ study were cardiovascular/overall comorbidity, disorder influencing walking ability, self-rated health, income, severity of central stenosis, and scoliosis. CONCLUSION: Depression, cardiovascular comorbidity, disorder influencing walking ability, and scoliosis predicted poorer subjective outcome. Better walking ability, self-rated health, higher income, less overall comorbidity, and pronounced central stenosis predicted better subjective outcome. Male gender and younger age predicted better postoperative walking ability. The predictive value may be outcome specific; thus, the use of all relevant outcome measures is recommended when studying predictors of LSS.

Databases, Factual↗

PubMed2005

Clinical predictors of and mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome: potential role of red cell transfusion.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical predictors for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have been studied in few prospective studies. Although transfusions are common in the intensive care unit, the role of submassive transfusion in non-trauma-related ARDS has not been studied. We describe here the clinical predictors of ARDS risk and mortality including the role of red cell transfusion. DESIGN: Observational prospective cohort. SETTING: Intensive care unit of Massachusetts General Hospital. PATIENTS: We studied 688 patients with sepsis, trauma, aspiration, and hypertransfusion. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-one (32%) subjects developed ARDS with a 60-day mortality rate of 46%. Significant predictors for ARDS on multivariate analyses included trauma (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09-0.53), diabetes (ORadj 0.58, 95% CI 0.36-0.92), direct pulmonary injury (ORadj 3.78, 95% CI 2.45-5.81), hematologic failure (ORadj 1.84, 95% CI 1.05-3.21), transfer from another hospital (ORadj 2.08, 95% CI 1.33-3.25), respiratory rate >33 breaths/min (ORadj 2.39, 95% CI 1.51-3.78), hematocrit >37.5% (ORadj 1.77, 95% CI 1.14-2.77), arterial pH <7.33 (ORadj 2.00, 95% CI 1.31-3.05), and albumin </=2.3 g/dL (ORadj 1.80, 95% CI 1.18-2.73). Packed red blood cell transfusion was associated with ARDS (ORadj 1.52, 95% CI 1.00-2.31, p = .05). Significant predictors for mortality in ARDS included age (ORadj 1.96, 95% CI 1.50-2.53), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score (ORadj 1.78, 95% CI 1.16-2.73), trauma (ORadj 0.075, 95% CI 0.006-0.96), corticosteroids before ARDS (ORadj 4.65, 95% CI 1.47-14.7), and arterial pH <7.22 (ORadj 2.32, 95% CI 1.02-5.25). Packed red blood cell transfusions were associated with increased mortality in ARDS (ORadj 1.10 per unit transfused; 95% CI 1.04-1.17) with a significant dose-dependent response (p = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Important predictors for the development of and mortality in ARDS were identified. Packed red blood cell transfusion was associated with an increased development of and increased mortality in ARDS.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Charlson co-morbidity index as a predictor of outcome after surgery for renal cell carcinoma with renal vein, vena cava or right atrium extension.

PURPOSE: Surgery is the most effective treatment for renal cell carcinoma with tumor thrombus but predictors of outcome and patient survival are variable. Co-morbidity may affect therapeutic decision making and survival, although to our knowledge this factor has not been studied in patients with tumor thrombus. We analyzed the Charlson co-morbidity index as a predictor of outcome after surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From 1970 to 1998, 303 patients underwent surgical resection. The Charlson index, surgical era, completeness of resection, patient age, sex, tumor level, TNM stage, grade and perinephric fat invasion were studied retrospectively as univariate and multivariate predictors of outcome. RESULTS: The level of tumor thrombus was 0 (renal vein only) in 127 patients, and I to IV in 66, 58, 36 and 16, respectively. At 5 years overall, cause specific and metastasis-free survival were 32%, 42% and 41%, while at 10 years they were 21%, 32% and 30%, respectively. For the whole cohort significant multivariate predictors of cause specific survival were metastasis (p = 0.0001), grade (p = 0.0001), perinephric fat involvement (p = 0.02) and tumor levels 0 versus I to IV (p = 0.048). The Charlson index did not predict outcome (univariate model p = 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of the primary tumor remained the most important predictors of cause specific survival in this cohort. The Charlson index did not predict cause specific survival in this cohort of surgically treated patients. Prospective assessment of co-morbidity in patients treated with surgery versus conservative therapy is warranted.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Predictors for lower quality of life in the HAART era among HIV-infected men.

BACKGROUND: In the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), maximizing health-related quality of life (QOL) has become a high priority of long-term management of HIV-infected individuals. Modifiable determinants of lower QOL should be identified for interventions specifically targeted to the HAART-using individuals to improve their QOL. OBJECTIVE: To identify the predictors for lower QOL among HAART-using study participants in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of HIV infection among homosexual and bisexual men in 4 cities. METHODS: In the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, 636 HAART-using subjects had QOL data before HAART initiation and at least 2 consecutive QOL measurements after HAART initiation to visit 40 (April 2004). Variables of sociodemographics, individual risk behaviors, social support, biological markers, HIV-related medication use and clinical outcome indicators preceding the study outcomes, the physical health summary score and the mental health summary score derived from the standard SF-36 QOL form, were assessed as possible predictors using random-effects mixed models. RESULTS: QOL before HAART initiation was a strong predictor of QOL subsequent to HAART initiation. Older age, lower socioeconomic status, less male sexual partners, no alcohol drinking, and more advanced HIV disease stage were significant predictors for lower physical health summary score. In addition, more outpatient visits, depression, amprenavir use, antiretroviral drug interruption, recreational drug use, and less social support were significantly associated with lower mental health summary score. DISCUSSION: Many predictors of lower QOL are alterable risk factors that can be effectively targeted for interventions to maximize patients' QOL. With appropriate treatment and management of HIV disease and depression, clinicians can help improve the QOL of their patients. Through modification of individual risk behaviors, HIV-infected individuals can enhance their own QOL with support from clinicians and the community. In addition, active social support can also be an effective way to improve mental health of the infected persons.

Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active↗

PubMed2005

Pediatric short bowel syndrome: redefining predictors of success.

OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of survival and of weaning off parenteral nutrition (PN) in pediatric short bowel syndrome (SBS) patients. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Pediatric SBS carries extensive morbidity and high mortality, but factors believed to predict survival or weaning from PN have been based on limited studies. This study reviews outcomes of a large number of SBS infants and identifies predictors of success. METHODS: Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was conducted on 80 pediatric SBS patients. Primary outcome was survival; secondary outcome was ability to wean off PN. Nonsignificant covariates were eliminated. P < 0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: Over a mean of 5.1 years of follow-up, survival was 58 of 80 (72.5%) and 51 weaned off PN (63.8%). Cholestasis (conjugated bilirubin > or =2.5 mg/dL) was the strongest predictor of mortality (relative risk [RR] 22.7, P = 0.005). Although absolute small bowel length was only slightly predictive, percentage of normal bowel length (for a given infant's gestational age) was strongly predictive of mortality (if <10% of normal length, RR of death was 5.7, P = 0.003) and of weaning PN (if > or =10% of normal, RR of weaning PN was 11.8, P = 0.001). Presence of the ileocecal valve (ICV) also strongly predicted weaning PN (RR 3.9, P < 0.0005); however, ICV was not predictive of survival. CONCLUSIONS: Cholestasis and age-adjusted small bowel length are the major predictors of mortality in pediatric SBS. Age-adjusted small bowel length and ICV are the major predictors of weaning from PN. These data permit better prediction of outcomes of pediatric SBS, which may help to direct future management of these challenging patients.

Child Nutritional Physiological Phenomena↗

PubMed2005

Blood transfusion is an independent predictor of increased mortality in nonoperatively managed blunt hepatic and splenic injuries.

BACKGROUND: Management strategies for blunt solid viscus injuries often include blood transfusion. However, transfusion has previously been identified as an independent predictor of mortality in unselected trauma admissions. We hypothesized that transfusion would adversely affect mortality and outcome in patients presenting with blunt hepatic and splenic injuries after controlling for injury severity and degree of shock. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed records from all adults with blunt hepatic and/or splenic injuries admitted to a Level I trauma center over a 4-year period. Demographics, physiologic variables, injury severity, and amount of blood transfused were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis with logistic and linear regression were used to identify predictors of mortality and outcome. RESULTS: One hundred forty-three (45%) of 316 patients presenting with blunt hepatic and/or splenic injuries received blood transfusion within the first 24 hours. Two hundred thirty patients (72.8%) were selected for nonoperative management, of whom 75 (33%) required transfusion in the first 24 hours. Transfusion was an independent predictor of mortality in all patients (odds ratio [OR], 4.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37-16.4; p = 0.014) and in those managed nonoperatively (OR, 8.45; 95% CI, 1.95-36.53; p = 0.0043) after controlling for indices of shock and injury severity. The risk of death increased with each unit of packed red blood cells transfused (OR per unit, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.24; p < 0.0001). Blood transfusion was also an independent predictor of increased hospital length of stay (coefficient, 5.45; 95% CI, 1.64-9.25; p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Blood transfusion is a strong independent predictor of mortality and hospital length of stay in patients with blunt liver and spleen injuries after controlling for indices of shock and injury severity. Transfusion-associated mortality risk was highest in the subset of patients managed nonoperatively. Prospective examination of transfusion practices in treatment algorithms of blunt hepatic and splenic injuries is warranted.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Visual estimation of tumour extent is not an independent predictor of prostate specific antigen recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse tumour extent as a predictor of cancer progression after radical prostatectomy (RP), using a multivariate Cox regression model, as several variables (e.g. Gleason grade and tumour stage) are well-established prognostic factors in prostate cancer but it is uncertain if the visual estimation of tumour extent (percentage of carcinoma) is an independent predictor for prostate cancer recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tumour extent was estimated in the RP specimens from 504 men with clinically localized prostate cancer; clinical follow-up data were available for 459 men. The mean (range) follow-up was 44.3 (1.5-144) months. Cancer progression was defined by the development of biochemical recurrence, local recurrence, or distant metastasis. Multivariate analysis was used to assess tumour extent as a predictor of cancer progression. RESULTS: Of the 459 patients, 157 had cancer progression; the mean tumour extent was 36% and 24% in those with and without cancer progression, respectively (P < 0.001). Univariate analysis showed a significant association between the visual estimation of tumour extent and tumour stage, Gleason grade, surgical margins, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, lymph node metastasis, and preoperative serum prostate-specific antigen level (all P < 0.001). However, in a multivariate Cox regression model controlling for pathological stage, Gleason score, and surgical margin status, the visual estimation of tumour extent was no longer a significant predictor of cancer progression (P = 0.84). CONCLUSION: The visual estimation of tumour extent was associated with various established prognostic factors for prostate cancer, and with cancer progression in a univariate analysis, but it was not a significant predictor of cancer progression in the multivariate analysis controlling for pathological stage, Gleason score, and surgical margin status.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Predictors of glycaemic control in type 1 diabetic patients after participation in an intensified treatment and teaching programme.

The aim of the study was to identify predictors of long-term glycaemic control in Type 1 diabetic patients after participation in an intensified insulin treatment and teaching programme. The study population consisted of 697 Type 1 diabetic patients (mean age 26 +/- 7 (SD) years, duration of diabetes 8 +/- 7 years) who participated in the same structured intensified insulin treatment and teaching programme in 10 hospitals and who were re-examined after 1, 2, and 3 years. Multiple and logistic regression analyses were performed including a set of demographic, disease-related, social, and psychosocial variables as potential predictors. As dependent variables the average HbA1 values during the 3-year follow-up period and a composite variable (average HbA1 values/frequency of severe hypoglycaemia)--dividing patients into three groups with good, moderate or poor metabolic control--were considered. Regression analysis of average HbA1 values revealed significance (p < 0.05) for seven independent predictors in descending order: smoking, age at onset of diabetes, frequency of home blood glucose monitoring, socioeconomic status, diabetes-related knowledge, perceived coping abilities, and sex (R2 (percentage of variation explained by the model) = 17%). In a second regression model, HbA1 values before the intervention programme were added to the model and achieved the highest standardized regression coefficient (0.38), increasing R2 to 29%. In the logistic regression models considering both HbA1 and severe hypoglycaemia as a composite dependent variable, diabetes-related knowledge, HbA1 values before the intervention, smoking, perceived coping abilities, age at onset of diabetes, and C-peptide levels were the strongest predictors of glycaemic control. In conclusion, the relationship between demographic, disease-related, psychosocial, and social variables and metabolic control is complex. Therefore, simplistic concepts of linear causality should be abandoned. In addition to HbA1 values before the intervention, smoking, diabetes-related knowledge, home blood glucose monitoring, age at onset of diabetes, perceived coping abilities and C-peptide levels were the most significant and consistent predictors of glycaemic control.

Adolescent↗