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Causal modeling of epidemiological data on psychiatric disorders.

This paper reviews the logic of causal inference from epidemiological data. I maintain that the clearest causal statements can be made when the philosophical causal principles of association, direction and isolation are upheld in epidemiological research. After reviewing the argument by Holland that only experimental manipulation affords clear causal claims, I examine the utility of structural equation models and longitudinal methods for making causal claims from non-experimental data. This examination leads to the conclusion that mental health epidemiologists should begin to incorporate intervention trials into the last phases of their research programmes when they want to make strong causal claims.

Humans

Test of a model of psychosocial resources, stress, and health among undereducated adults.

The purpose of this study was to test a model drawn from the modeling and role-modeling theory depicting relationships among psychosocial resources, perceived stress, and health for undereducated adults. A purposive sample of 171 adults enrolled at an urban adult education center completed several self-report measures: Modified Erikson Psychological Stage Inventory, Basic Need Satisfaction Inventory, Perceived Stress, and Positive Health Index. Based on a structural equation modeling analysis, psychosocial development and basic need satisfaction had significant direct effects on health, with the expected positive signs. Psychosocial development had the strongest direct effect on health and also had a strong direct effect on basic need satisfaction and an indirect effect on health. Support for the hypothesized model has important implications for nursing and other community-based care provider interventions regarding health, including strengthening psychosocial resources.

Adaptation, Psychological

Analyzing the development of individual differences in terms of Matthew effects in reading: results from a Dutch Longitudinal study.

The Matthew effect hypothesis provides a theoretical framework to describe the development of individual differences in reading ability. The model predicts an increase of individual differences in reading. Reciprocal relationships between reading and other factors seem to cause these increasing differences. This longitudinal study of 3 years was concerned with uncovering the existence and causes of increasing individual differences in reading in the early elementary grades. Data were analyzed within a structural equation modeling framework. The results clearly indicate increasing individual differences for word recognition skills. For reading comprehension, no such effects could be established for this limited time period. More important, some evidence for interactive relationships between reading and other cognitive skills, behaviors, and motivational factors, hypothesized to cause increasing differences between readers, was found.

Child

A bi-directional theory of addiction: examining coping and the factors related to substance relapse.

The results from this study supported a bi-directional theory of addiction for a sample of Black, inner-city, working-class, male substance abusers. Using structural equations modeling, at 6 months posttreatment we found that (a) the reciprocal effect emotional and psychological distress and substance relapse had on one another existed within the context of their bi-directional relationship with social instability, and (b) effective coping skills and resources moderated the negative effects that emotional and psychological distress, social structure, and substance relapse had on one another. These findings led us to three suggestions treatment professionals can use to counteract recidivism.

Adaptation, Psychological

Promoting wellness by delaying age of cardiovascular disease onset: development of a model.

Studies promoting wellness and prevention of cardiovascular disease have primarily dealt with identifying risk factors rather than factors that influence the age at which the cardiovascular disease develops. The purpose of this study was to determine whether selected risk factors affect the age when cardiovascular disease develops. Using a nonexperimental design, all 800 subjects who developed cardiovascular disease were selected from the Framingham Heart Study. A structural equation model for age of cardiovascular disease development was tested. Gender, smoking, entry age, antihypertensive medication use, hemoglobin, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure were significant determinants of the age at which cardiovascular disease develops. The model accounted for 72% of the variance in age of cardiovascular disease development. The results of this study suggest that in assisting individuals to modify cardiovascular disease risk, cardiovascular nurses and other professionals must address smoking, body mass index, and blood pressure as a package to delay onset of cardiovascular disease symptoms.

Age Factors

Social disconnection integrates genetic and proteomic risks in suicidal ideation and depression.

Suicidal ideation (SI) and major depressive disorder (MDD) are complex psychiatric conditions arising from the interplay of genetic liability, molecular processes, and psychosocial factors. While these dimensions have been extensively studied in isolation, their joint contribution to SI and MDD remains unclear. This study integrates multi-modal data to elucidate these synergistic effects and develop robust models for individual-level risk stratification. Leveraging longitudinal multi-modal data from 13,085 UK Biobank participants, we integrated genomic, proteomic, and social connection profiles. We developed interpretable risk scores using a rigorous supervised machine learning framework encompassing diverse linear and ensemble classifiers. Permutation importance was employed to quantify feature contributions and derive transparent, weighted risk metrics across diverse classifiers. These scores were validated through association, interaction, and mediation analyses. Social connection-based risk scores significantly differentiated cases and controls across the two suicidal ideation phenotypes at 2017 and 2023 with cross-sectional analyses (AUCs: 0.70 - 0.73), outperforming proteomic-only models. Functional dimensions of social connection emerged as the most informative predictors. Longitudinal analyses revealed that social risk scores at baseline predicted suicidal ideation onset six years later, independent of demographic covariates. Interaction analyses demonstrated that polygenic risk for suicide attempt significantly interacted with both social and proteomic risk features in relation to depression. Structural equation models further confirmed that social disconnection acts as a key mediator linking genetic predisposition to MDD and SI. Social disconnection is a critical risk factor mediating the impact of genetic vulnerability on psychiatric outcomes. Integrating social, genetic, and molecular data supports a multilevel framework for risk stratification and highlights the potential of socially oriented interventions to mitigate biological risk.

Humans

Psychosocial correlates of substance use: comparing high school students with incarcerated offenders in Hong Kong.

Drug use prevalence data were obtained from 969 adolescents, high school students and imprisoned offenders who reported use of cough medicine, organic solvents, cannabis, heroin, tranquilizers, and narcotics over the past six months. Incarcerated youths, in particular girls, had higher prevalence rates than students. Drug use frequencies were associated with psychosocial variables such as disinhibition, peer drug use, susceptibility to peer pressure, attitudes, encouragement by peers, and perceived availability of drugs. The psychosocial process of the initiation and maintenance of substance use was specified as a path model that considered 1) personality and social environment as distal precursors and 2) a drug-use predisposition and perceived availability as proximal precursors of three kinds of outcome variables: drug use, the intention to try illicit drugs if they were legal, and adverse outcomes of drug use. It was found that the same structural equation model fit the data of both samples of offenders and students, however, with very different weights assigned to the paths.

Adolescent

Construct validity of heroin abuse estimators.

The construct validity of two methodologically unrelated procedures for estimating the prevalence of heroin abuse was studied using a covariance structure model-fitting approach. A factor analytic estimation procedure and a log-linear-based capture-recapture method of estimation were simultaneously applied to 24 major metropolitan areas of the nation. A test of the construct validity of these procedures for estimating the prevalence of heroin abuse was carried out in the context of structural equation models where the results of the two methods were compared directly.

Data Collection

A longitudinal model of maternal self-efficacy, depression, and difficult temperament during toddlerhood.

The purpose of this study was to test a model of maternal self-efficacy during toddlerhood using a longitudinal sequential design. Participants were 126 mothers of 1-year olds (Cohort 1) and 126 mothers of 2-year olds (Cohort 2) who completed questionnaires measuring maternal self-efficacy, depression, and perceived difficult toddler temperament three times over 1 year. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling and maximum likelihood estimation. Findings support a model whereby (a) the more depressed the mother feels, the more likely she is to rate her toddler's temperament as difficult, (b) the more difficult the child's temperament is perceived to be, the lower the mother's estimates of her parenting self-efficacy, (c) the lower the mother's self-efficacy, the greater her depression, and (d) the more depressed the mother feels at one point in time, the more likely she is to remain depressed 6 months later. Implications of the findings are discussed as they relate to self-efficacy theory and nursing intervention with parents of difficult toddlers.

Adult

Factors promoting cigarette smoking among black youth: a causal modeling approach.

A longitudinal model of Black adolescent smoking was tested using 223 seventh-grade students attending public schools in northern New Jersey. Interpersonal and intrapersonal factors were hypothesized to have an impact on Black seventh graders' decision to smoke. After conducting an exploratory Principal Factor Analysis (PFA) using a varimax rotation with the Time 1 data, a structural equation model was developed and refined through successive iterations. The final model revealed friends' smoking to be the most significant predictor of Black adolescent smoking at Time 1, but perceived smoking norms and intrapersonal factors such as decision making, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at home and at school exerted an important influence on smoking at Time 2. These results suggest that social influence factors may be important early in the smoking initiation process, but factors such as perceived smoking norms and intrapersonal factors may play an important role in maintaining the smoking habit in Black adolescents.

Adolescent

A longitudinal causal model of cardiac invalidism following myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Invalidism has been discussed in the cardiovascular literature for decades. Researchers have studied health perceptions, emotional distress, and dependency in patients after acute myocardial infarction in an attempt to understand the phenomenon. However, no theory of the manner in which these variables interact has been proposed. OBJECTIVES: Using previous research, a model of invalidism was specified in which individuals' perceptions that their health is poor lead to emotional distress and increased dependency. As health perceptions improve over time, emotional distress and dependency decrease. METHOD: Survey data were collected from 111 men and women 1 and 4 months after a first myocardial infarction and were tested using structural equation modeling. RESULTS: The model was rejected using a confirmatory approach (chi2(89) = 141.40; p= .00034). The fit indices, however, suggested an adequate fit of the model to the data (CFI = .96; NNFI = .94). CONCLUSION: The conclusion is that the model is reasonable and serves as a starting point for a theory-based empirical exploration of the invalidism process.

Adult

Structural factor analyses for medically unexplained somatic symptoms of somatization disorder in the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study.

BACKGROUND: Assess the latent structure of the DSM-III somatization symptoms and the stability of symptom patterns over time. METHODS: Cross-sectional and longitudinal covariation of symptoms of somatization disorder were investigated using structural equation models in a population-based data set from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. RESULTS: Medically unexplained physical complaints were discovered to cluster into three separate factors, consistent with the DSM-IV definition of somatization disorder, but one dominant general factor was defined, consistent with the DSM-III conceptualization. Individual symptom prevalences and factor structures were different for men and women. The factor structures remained stable at 1 year follow-up. Variations in the threshold of number of somatization symptoms required for diagnosis affected prevalence, sex ratio and temporal stability of the diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: These population-based results support dimensional models of somatization. Implications for changing the threshold of the categorical diagnosis of somatization disorder and providing better care for these patients are given.

Adult

Modeling relationships among socioeconomic status, hostility, cardiovascular reactivity, and left ventricular mass in African American and White children.

In African American and White children and adolescents (N = 147), socioeconomic status (SES) was measured in 2 ways: (a) using neighborhood-level measures of population density, median income, educational attainment, and the number of children born to single mothers and (b) using family-level measures of parents' occupation and education. Structural equation modeling revealed that both lower family SES and lower neighborhood SES were independently associated with greater hostility and consequently greater cardiovascular reactivity to laboratory stressors in African Americans. Independent of neighborhood SES, only lower family SES was associated with greater cardiovascular reactivity in Whites. Heightened cardiovascular reactivity was associated with greater left ventricular mass (LVM) in Whites and marginally greater LVM in African Americans. Results suggest the importance of using multiple indicators of SES and confirm the relationship between SES and LVM in African Americans and Whites, albeit through different pathways.

Adolescent

Personality, life events and coping in the oldest-old.

This paper compares older adults in their sixties, eighties, and 100s on personality, experience of life events, and coping. A secondary goal was to test a structural model of adaptation. Participants (165) filled out a personality inventory, life-event lists, and coping and mental health measures. Results revealed differences in personality: centenarians scored higher on dominance, suspiciousness, and imagination. While centenarians scored lower on active behavioral coping than other age groups, they used cognitive strategies when coping with health and family events. Results from the structural equation model indicated that extraversion and anxiety predicted morale and mental health.

Adaptation, Psychological

Posttraumatic stress disorder among female Vietnam veterans: a causal model of etiology.

OBJECTIVES: The Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars have awakened people to the realization that military service can be traumatizing for women as well as men. This study investigated the etiological roles of both war and sexual trauma in the development of chronic posttraumatic stress disorder among female Vietnam veterans. METHODS: Data from the National Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Study for 396 Vietnam theater women and 250 Vietnam era women were analyzed with structural equation modeling. RESULTS: An etiological model with highly satisfactory fit and parsimony was developed. Exposure to war trauma contributed to the probability of posttraumatic stress disorder in theater women, as did sexual trauma in both theater and era women. Lack of social support at the time of homecoming acted as a powerful mediator of trauma for both groups of women. CONCLUSIONS: Within the constraints and assumptions of causal modeling, there is evidence that both war trauma and sexual trauma are powerful contributors to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder among female Vietnam veterans.

Adult

[Cognitive appraisal, coping behavior, and social integration of centenarians].

Thomae's conceptualization of cognitive appraisal is tested in a mediation model of centenarian coping, adaptation, and social integration. Eight men and 32 women between 100 to 104 years were assessed with a semi-structured interview. On the basis of the interviews, indicators of functional health, cognitive appraisal, coping behavior, and social integration were rated. In addition, functional health was evaluated by observational methods, including a physician's rating. Testing of structural equation models indicated that cognitive appraisal is an important mediator between an emerging situation and the subsequent reactions in centenarians and that coping behavior is a substantial predictor of social integration. Even at the end of the human lifespan adaptational processes are generally efficient, albeit with some limitations. Similar to other adult age groups, very old adults use a variety of psychological processes to cope with tasks and stress.

Adaptation, Psychological

Unraveling causal links between chronic rhinosinusitis and peripheral artery diseases: insights from genetic correlations through genome-wide association studies.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic Rhinosinusitis (CRS) shares epidemiological links with Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs), however, their shared genetic basis remains unclear. We hypothesized that pleiotropic genetic variants underlie CRS-CVDs links via distinct biological pathways. METHODS: Using large-scale GWAS data from European-ancestry individuals, we assessed global and local genetic correlations. We applied Genomic Structural Equation Modeling (Genomic SEM) to dissect shared genetic architecture, performed bidirectional Mendelian Randomization (MR) to infer causality, and conducted cis-eQTL colocalization to identify shared genetic signals. Finally, in vitro endothelial models (HUVECs) validated the functional dynamics of candidate genes under CRS-mimicking inflammatory stress. RESULTS: CRS showed significant genetic correlations with multiple CVDs. Genomic SEM revealed a latent factor structuring shared genetic risk through three pathways: artery diseases, myocardial diseases, and heart failure. Local genetic correlations identified significant local genetic correlations specifically between CRS and Peripheral Atherosclerosis (PAS)/Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) specifically within the chr6: 31.57&#x2012;33.24 Mb locus. MR demonstrated causal effects of CRS on PAD (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.23, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.022) and PAS (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.21, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.011), but not vice versa. Genetically predicted HLA-DRB1, APOM, and COL11A2 expression conferred protection, while HLA-DQA2 increased risk. Crucially, in vitro validation corroborated these pathogenic trajectories, inflammatory stress significantly downregulated the protective APOM and upregulated the risk-associated HLA-DQA2 alongside pro-atherogenic VCAM-1, while HLA-DRB1 exhibited a compensatory upregulation (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05). CONCLUSION: CRS shares global genetic liability with CVDs, structured through three primary etiological pathways. Causal effects of CRS on peripheral artery diseases are mediated by immune and lipid-related genes within the chr6 locus, revealing divergent pleiotropic mechanisms. Our integrated genetic and in vitro evidence provides a mechanistic framework wherein chronic mucosal inflammation contributes to systemic endothelial vulnerability, thereby highlighting candidate targets for mechanism-directed therapy.

Humans

Structural equation analyses of clinical subpopulation differences and comparative treatment outcomes: characterizing the daily lives of drug addicts.

The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is illustrated for comparative treatment outcome research conducted with heterogeneous clinical subpopulations within large multimodality treatment settings. All analyses are accomplished with SEM analogs of more familiar classical multivariate techniques. The effect of the early period of treatment on the daily lives of 486 clients in two drug abuse treatment modalities (methadone maintenance and outpatient counseling) is evaluated. Structured means analysis is used to assess initial differences between modalities on the latent means of 6 latent constructs reflecting daily life. The effect of treatment modality and attrition from the program on daily life latent constructs is evaluated while initial selection differences are statistically controlled. Effect sizes are computed on the basis of SEM parameter estimates. The advantage of SEM over classic multivariate approaches for correcting for selection bias when assessing comparative outcomes is explained.

Activities of Daily Living