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Interpretation of serological surveillance data for measles using mathematical models: implications for vaccine strategy.

Serological surveillance of measles immunity has been carried out in England since 1986/7. Results from sera collected in 1989-91 revealed that the proportion of school age children who were susceptible to measles was increasing, following the introduction of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccination programme in October 1988. Mathematical models are used to interpret these data and determine whether this increasing susceptibility is sufficient to allow a resurgence of disease from the low levels achieved by 1993. The models summarize serological profiles by a single parameter, the reproduction number R, which quantifies the level of herd immunity in the population. Results showed that there was cause for concern over the levels of susceptibility to measles, with an epidemic of over 100,000 cases likely in 1995/6. These predictions are consistent with trends in the incidence and age distribution of measles and have enabled the planning of a major vaccination campaign.

Adolescent

Partition of perceived space within the fusional area on the basis of apparent fronto-parallel plane criterion.

The relationship between visual space and physical space was investigated by means of the apparent fronto-parallel plane percept. A set of curves in physical space, corresponding to fronto-parallel planes perceived in front or behind a given fixation point, was determined. The curvature at the apex of these curves follows a hyperbolic law that depends on the distance between the perceived plane and the fixation point. Our results are interpreted by distinguishing absolute disparity, which sets the position of the perceived plane, from relative disparity measured by adjusting in this plane eccentric vertical lines. We show that Foley's model, which interprets the shape of the apparent fronto-parallel planes on the mis-evaluation of egocentric distance, works for absolute disparity judgements, but seems to be inadequate for relative disparity judgements in our experimental conditions.

Humans

A coupled pacemaker-slave model for the insect photoperiodic clock: interpretation of ovarian diapause data in Drosophila melanogaster.

A coupled circadian oscillator model for the insect photoperiodic clock is described which consists of a hierarchically arranged pacemaker and slave. The pacemaker is self-sustained, temperature compensated, and entrainable by the light cycle; the slave is a damping oscillation receiving entrainment from two sources, from the pacemaker via a coupling factor, and also directly from the light. The damping slave oscillation is seen as the "photoperiodic oscillator", equivalent to that proposed earlier by Lewis and Saunders (1987). The present simulations describe the effect of the strength of the coupling factor between hypothetical short- and long-period pacemaker oscillations (modelled on the "clock" mutants perS and perL2 in Drosophila melanogaster) and a slave oscillation with a period of about 24 hours. The output is presented in terms of photoperiodic response curves and Nanda-Hamner, or resonance, plots. With a high coupling strength, the pacemakers strongly entrain the slave, but with a low coupling strength the slave's properties are more evident. The model is presented as a possible explanation for recent ovarian diapause data in D. melanogaster "clock" mutants (Saunders 1990), but also as a more general model for the role of the insect circadian system in seasonal time measurement.

Animals

Computer modelling of Tetrahymena axonemes at macromolecular resolution. Interpretation of electron micrographs.

A computer-generated model of the structural arrangement of the complete 9+2 ciliary axoneme of Tetrahymena at macromolecular resolution (4 nm) is presented. The model reconciles detailed information about subcomponents from negative-stained, thin-section and freeze-fracture electron micrographs, integrating the images into a consistent three-dimensional picture. This illuminates problems such as the requirement for compaction of dynein to form the arm, difficulties in visualization of the circumferential links, construction of the central sheath, and the comparative periodicities of the inner and outer arms. The model is pragmatic in that it is flexible and easily changed, as new information becomes available. It is also useful in the development of dynamic concepts, such as a spatial description of the dynein cross-bridge cycle, which is illustrated, or relationships between adjacent doublets during sliding and bending.

Animals

Evaluating the pathogenic significance of unique chromosomal variants in craniosynostosis using patient-derived induced pluripotent stem cells and mouse modelling.

PURPOSE: Unravelling causal links between unique structural/copy-number variants (SV/CNV) and associated phenotypes is essential for correct genetic counselling. We investigated two families in which patients with craniosynostosis had SV/CNV potentially dysregulating a fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-encoding gene; a 730 kb dup(4)(q21.21) including FGF5; and a complex 568 kb interspersed 13q12.11 duplication, located 841 kb from FGF9. METHODS: We combined bioinformatic predictions of altered topologically-associating domain (TAD) structure, with experimental analysis (RNA- and ATAC- [assay for transposase-accessible chromatin] sequencing) of patient induced pluripotent stem cell lines (iPSCs) differentiated to neural crest (NCC) and osteoprogenitor (OPC) identities. For the dup(4)(q21.21) we generated a mouse bearing an equivalent rearrangement using CRISPR-Cas9 targeting. RESULTS: TAD analysis suggested potential dysregulation of the FGF5/FGF9 gene by bringing it into a novel genomic milieu. The RNA- and ATAC-seq assays demonstrated FGF5/FGF9 upregulation (2.7-18x) and local opening of chromatin, in 3/4 cell lines. For the dup(4)(q21.21), a causal role was supported by the mouse model, whereas interpretation of the 13q12.11 SV is confounded by a co-existing FOXP2 pathogenic variant. CONCLUSION: Patient iPSC-differentiated NCC and OPC lines, combined with TAD-based modelling to generate testable functional hypotheses, provide valuable functional evidence when evaluating causation of unique SV/CNV in craniosynostosis.

copy-number variant

Causal circuit tracing reveals distinct computational architectures in single-cell foundation models: inhibitory dominance, biological coherence, and cross-model convergence.

MOTIVATION: Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) decompose foundation-model activations into interpretable features, but the model-internal causal interactions between those features (i.e. what ablating one feature does to the others, as distinct from the biological causal structure of the underlying cells)-and how those model-internal relationships relate to biological structure-are uncharacterized in single-cell foundation models. RESULTS: We introduce model-internal causal circuit tracing-zeroing one SAE feature at a source layer and measuring the resulting change in all downstream SAE features, for each of 120 source features-and apply it to Geneformer V2-316M and scGPT whole-human across four conditions (96&#xa0;892 ablation-derived edges, 80&#xa0;191 forward passes). On annotation-selected source features, edges share GO/KEGG/Reactome/STRING/TRRUST ontology terms at 50.9%-68.5%, a 2.9-6.2&#xd7; enrichment over a configuration-preserving permutation null (P<.002); on 20 randomly sampled source features this attenuates to 21.5%-26.3%-still 2.5-3.1&#xd7; above null-quantifying the annotation-selection contribution. Inhibitory dominance (fraction of ablation edges with d<0, i.e. source activation supports downstream target) is 65.5%-89.4%. scGPT produces larger raw per-edge effects (mean |d|=1.40 versus 1.05); after feature-share normalization, Geneformer is stronger (paired gene-pair ratio 0.64 on 33&#xa0;301 shared pairs). Cross-model consensus yields 1142 architecture-invariant domain pairs (ordered pairs of GO biological-process categories "A&#x2192;B" each connected by at least one ablation edge in both models; 10.6&#xd7; enrichment over permutation null; P<.001). Circuit edge magnitude explains <1% of the variance in marginal driver-gene coexpression on the same cells (R2=0.010, n=31&#xa0;176): the graph encodes structure beyond bivariate correlation. Against a matched-cell-type ENCODE ChIP-seq prior, circuit-predicted transcription factor (TF)&#x2192;target pairs are enriched 2.06&#xd7; (Fisher OR 5.84), markedly higher than 1.12&#xd7; against TRRUST; direct ChIP-seq-supported target pairs show 10-30&#xd7; larger CRISPRi sign-bias-corrected excess than indirect pairs. Gene-level CRISPRi validation on Replogle K562 and the noncancer RPE1 arm (and a true primary-T-cell control from Shifrut E, Carnevale J, Tobin V et&#xa0;al. Genome-wide CRISPR screens in primary human T cells reveal key regulators of immune function. Cell 2018; 175: 1958-71.e15) after sign-bias correction shows excess over baseline of +0.03 and +0.35 percentage points on K562 and RPE1, respectively (baseline already 52%-56% from sign marginals); effect-magnitude Spearman correlations &#x3c1;&#x2248;0. Bootstrap and per-cell-type stability (N&#x2208;{50,100,200}; B cell, CD4&#xa0;+ T, macrophage) give Pearson r&#x2265;0.97 on shared edges with 100% sign agreement; edge Jaccard grows monotonically with sample size. The circuit graph is therefore highly reproducible as an effect-size map, cell type specific in edge identity, consistent with coexpression encoding, and weakly but detectably enriched for ChIP-seq-supported direct regulatory edges. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/Biodyn-AI/bio-sae-circuits (Python). Archival DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19,633,166 (Zenodo).

Humans

Optimizing performance through process improvement.

Health care professionals have found traditional problem solving and traditional management have not succeeded in "assuring quality." Organizations are changing the way they do business and are utilizing process improvement methodology to improve performance. Based on important functions, select dimensions of performance for processes are measured, evaluated, redesigned, and improved. Once priorities for improvement activities are determined, improvement projects can be implemented utilizing various process improvement models. The PRIDE (process, relevant, interpret, design, execute) model, designed by the authors, is one approach that can be applied in any setting.

Efficiency, Organizational

Porcine and human insulin absorption from subcutaneous tissues in normal and insulin-dependent diabetic subjects: a deconvolution-based approach.

The mechanisms of sc insulin absorption are not understood, and models for interpreting in vivo data cannot be developed without gross simplification. To overcome this difficulty we developed a new approach which makes use of deconvolution analysis and does not require any model of the sc tissue. In five normal subjects and seven insulin-dependent diabetic (IDDM) patients endogenous insulin secretion was suppressed by means of a hypoglycemic glucose clamp procedure (approximately 2.8 mmol/L) sustained by a continuous insulin infusion (approximately 4 pmol/min.kg). A bolus injection of insulin (5.4 nmol) was administered iv, and plasma insulin concentrations were measured frequently for 2 h to assess iv insulin kinetics. Insulin then was injected sc in the abdominal region, and plasma insulin concentrations were measured for 8 h. Each subject was studied twice, with porcine and semisynthetic human insulin (Actrapid, Novo). The rate of insulin absorption was reconstructed by deconvolution from the plasma concentrations and iv insulin kinetic data. Linearity of the iv insulin kinetics, essential for deconvolution analysis, was confirmed by a dose-response study in the range of the measured concentrations (150-1800 pmol/L). In most instances, a two-compartment model was adequate to describe the iv response. The mean plasma insulin clearance rates were 15.5 +/- 1.9 (+/- SD) mL/min.kg (porcine) and 17.2 +/- 6.0 (human) in normal subjects and 20.7 +/- 8.8 (porcine) and 20.9 +/- 9.1 (human) in the IDDM patients. The rate of appearance of human insulin from sc tissue was faster than that of porcine insulin in both normal and IDDM subjects, but no significant differences were found in bioavailability, which was 55 +/- 12% (+/- SD; porcine) and 61 +/- 34% (human) in the normal subjects, and 84 +/- 28% (porcine) and 86 +/- 23% (human) in the IDDM patients. The rate of absorption and bioavailability were higher in the IDDM patients than in the normal subjects, a difference possibly related to increased sc blood flow in the IDDM patients. No differences were found with regard to glucose requirement values, normalized to plasma insulin concentrations, in agreement with the finding that the bioavailability of the two insulin species was similar.

Adolescent

Localization of the sites of pulmonary vasomotion by use of arterial and venous occlusion.

In this study, we present a new approach for using the pressure vs. time data obtained after various vascular occlusion maneuvers in pump-perfused lungs to gain insight into the longitudinal distribution of vascular resistance with respect to vascular compliance. Occlusion data were obtained from isolated dog lung lobes under normal control conditions, during hypoxia, and during histamine or serotonin infusion. The data used in the analysis include the slope of the arterial pressure curve and the zero time intercept of the extrapolated venous pressure curve after venous occlusion, the equilibrium pressure after simultaneous occlusion of both the arterial inflow and venous outflow, and the area bounded by equilibrium pressure and the arterial pressure curve after arterial occlusion. We analyzed these data by use of a compartmental model in which the vascular bed is represented by three parallel compliances separated by two series resistances, and each of the three compliances and the two resistances can be identified. To interpret the model parameters, we view the large arteries and veins as mainly compliance vessels and the small arteries and veins as mainly resistance vessels. The capillary bed is viewed as having a high compliance, and any capillary resistance is included in the two series resistances. With this view in mind, the results are consistent with the major response to serotonin infusion being constriction of large and small arteries (a decrease in arterial compliance and an increase in arterial resistance), the major response to histamine infusion being constriction of small and large veins (an increase in venous resistance and a decrease in venous compliance), and the major response to hypoxia being constriction of the small arteries (an increase in arterial resistance). The results suggest that this approach may have utility for evaluation of the sites of action of pulmonary vasomotor stimuli.

Animals

Theoretical modelling of the motion and deformation of capsules in shear flows.

Mechanical models for capsules freely suspended in another liquid, are devised to predict the deformation, motion, breakup of one particle and also the rheological flow behaviour of a suspension. The capsule is filled with a newtonian liquid, and is surrounded by a thin deformable membrane having otherwise arbitrary mechanical properties. Initially spherical capsules in simple shear flow, are found to deform and orient with respect to streamlines, while their membrane is continuously rotating around the internal liquid. A dilute suspension of such capsules has a viscoelastic constitutive law which depends on the particle physical properties. It is then possible to use such models to interpret experiments in terms of the mean intrinsic properties of a capsule population.

Capsules

The advanced practice nurse as case manager.

The dynamic interactions of the client, service provided, and payer are complex relationships in today's health care environment. An advanced practice nurse's abilities to care physically and psychosocially for clients and their families are essential within the case management framework. With a holistic view of clients' health status, the nurse case manager develops and carries out advanced practice functions that help achieve the best outcome for the client through effective interactions with clients, payers, and providers. Those functions, illustrated by the Star Case Management Model, include interpretation, advocacy, and surveillance.

Aged

A spectral network model of pitch perception.

A model of pitch perception, called the spatial pitch network or SPINET model, is developed and analyzed. The model neurally instantiates ideas from the spectral pitch modeling literature and joins them to basic neural network signal processing designs to stimulate a broader range of perceptual pitch data than previous spectral models. The components of the model are interpreted as peripheral mechanical and neural processing stages, which are capable of being incorporated into a larger network architecture for separating multiple sound sources in the environment. The core of the new model transforms a spectral representation of an acoustic source into a spatial distribution of pitch strengths. The SPINET model uses a weighted "harmonic sieve" whereby the strength of activation of a given pitch depends upon a weighted sum of narrow regions around the harmonics of the nominal pitch value, and higher harmonics contribute less to a pitch than lower ones. Suitably chosen harmonic weighting functions enable computer simulations of pitch perception data involving mistuned components, shifted harmonics, and various types of continuous spectra including rippled noise. It is shown how the weighting functions produce the dominance region, how they lead to octave shifts of pitch in response to ambiguous stimuli, and how they lead to a pitch region in response to the octave-spaced Shepard tone complexes and Deutsch tritones without the use of attentional mechanisms to limit pitch choices. An on-center off-surround network in the model helps to produce noise suppression, partial masking, and edge pitch. Finally, it is shown how peripheral filtering and short-term energy measurements produce a model pitch estimate that is sensitive to certain component phase relationships.

Cochlea

Computer simulation of metabolism of glucose-perfused rat heart in a work-jump.

A computer model of glycolysis, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and related amino acid metabolism, is described for a glucose-perfused experimental rat heart preparation suddenly switched from low work load (Langendorff perfusion) to high work load (left atrial perfusion). Glycolytic intermediate measurements suggest activation of phosphofructokinase within a few seconds. This activation, and also that of other glycolytic enzymes, is calculated as due to a sharp increase in cytoplasmic Mg2+ level, which overcomes the inhibitory effects of a rapid fall in cytoplasmic pH to 6.77 (calculated from a rapid fall in creatine phosphate). Increased glycolytic substrate is initially supplied by glycogenolysis mediated by phosphorylase b (activated by an early rise in cytoplasmic AMP), followed by increased glucose uptake from the perfusate. Testable predictions are made by the model, especially that lactate production rate should peak early. Additional experiments are described that verify these predictions and fill gaps in the original measurements. The role of modeling in interpreting such experiments is discussed.

Amino Acids

Mathematical modelling of cell cycle and chronobiology: preliminary results.

A mathematical model taking into account the observed diurnal variations in cell kinetics is presented. The principle of the method is to divide each phase of the cell cycle in a definite number of compartments and to assume that the fluxes into and out of the compartments corresponding to the G1 phase are the only varying parameters through the day. Theoretical evolutions of percentages of cells in M and S phase, theoretical curves for percentage labelled mitosis experiment are derived. Preliminary results of the applications of the model to interpretation of published experimental data obtained in hamster cheek pouch epithelium are shown.

Cell Division

A model to describe growth patterns of the mammary gland during pregnancy and lactation.

Extensive proliferation and death of cells in the mammary gland occur during pregnancy and lactation. In this study, a mechanistic model was developed that yielded a single equation to describe the pattern of mammary growth of mammals throughout pregnancy and lactation. The model contains a single pool, which is the cell population of the mammary gland; one influx, representing cell proliferation; and one efflux, representing cell death. The parameters of the equation lend themselves to direct physiological interpretation. The model fitted data on mammary gland DNA adequately and can be related to current knowledge on factors and inhibitors of mammary gland growth. A unique definition of the parameters of the model can be difficult because of the high degree of variation among animals, an improper number of observations, or timing, as indicated by analyses of simulated data. The model can also be applied to the study of the entire lactation curve. The widely applied gamma equation and the equation that was developed in this study were compared using weekly production data from dairy cows. The new model performed well, particularly when a sharp peak in milk production occurred. The model has the advantage of providing, for the first time, a simple biological description of the lactation curve that can be used to discriminate changes in lactational performance that are associated with experimental treatments.

Animals

Removable partial denture design: a photoelastic study.

Quantifiable frozen-stress photoelastic techniques were used to analyze stresses induced in mandibular models by a conventional free-end saddle removable partial denture. Four quasi-anatomical mandibular models were constructed for processing, together with their respective calibration specimens, through identical time/temperature stress-freezing cycles. After processing and slicing, an unloaded control model demonstrated some low-order fringes adjacent to the coronal third of the abutment tooth roots, but was otherwise stress free. A lower bilateral free-end saddle partial denture was constructed and fitted in turn to each of the remaining three models. Each denture/model combination was then loaded and processed through a stress-freezing cycle. After processing, 6-mm slices were cut from selected regions for analysis for the presence of stresses. Using a polariscope with circular polarized, monochromatic light, values for maximum shear stress were calculated at selected points in the slices taken from the three loaded models. Variations up to 28% of the mean were obtained for the three experimental models as compared with the consistent results for the material fringe values obtained from the calibration specimens. The study pointed out the problems involved in using photoelastic stress analysis on complicated anatomical models. The interpretation of the results from such studies should be approached with caution.

Denture, Partial

[Psychoanalytic interpretation of sleep-disturbances. Model of a structural-theoretical classification (author's transl)].

In psychoanalytic literature anxiety, guilt-feelings and unconscious hostility are assumed to be the most common causes of spleeplessness. The author attempts to ascribe these emotions to conflicts between the instances of the psychoanalytic personality model as a structure-theoretical classification of sleep-disturbances. Three large groups emerge: Neurotic disturbances of sleep with internalized conflicts (these correspond essentially to what are generally understood to be neurotic sleep-disturbances), neurotic disturbances of sleep with externalized conflicts (these are more common in childhood) and non-neurotic sleep disturbances. Within these groups the relative parts of effectiveness of the instances of the psychoanalytic personality-model - ego, super-ego, id and reality - are discussed.

Aggression

Lesion spectra: radiation signatures and biological gateways.

We describe an integrative approach to the modeling of biophysical radiation effects. The model takes aim at practical applications of the knowledge provided by molecular studies of radiation-matter interactions in DNA. The central proposition is the idea that the distribution of molecular lesions (i.e., a molecular lesion spectrum, MLS) generated in DNA by exposure to a particular radiation is a characteristic of that causal radiation (i.e., is a radiation signature, RS). We have found that adaptive neural networks (ANN's) provide an efficient way to validate that proposition and that ANN's are also likely to be invaluable in any attempt to correlate cancers with radiation types (i.e., with RS's), to use RS's for evaluating individual carcinogenic susceptibilities, and to develop a low-dose personalized monitoring capability. Although efforts to identify products of radiation that are specific to radiation type and to link those with biological responses are almost a century old, the RS concept has provided the first quantitative confirmation of such causal relations. That is, RS's and radiation markers have been identified for various types of radiation, electromagnetic (EM) and particulate, and these signatures and markers may constitute a new way for fast radiation exposure estimates, risk assessment, and cumulative low-dose evaluation. In this work, while we will present a short review of the concepts and methods related to both RS's and markers, almost the entire effort will relate to the modeling and interpretation of RS's using ANN processing.

Biomarkers