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Two-hit model for sporadic congenital anomalies in mice with the disorganization mutation.

Congenital anomalies have complex etiologies involving both genetic and nongenetic components. Many are sporadic, without obvious evidence for heritability. An important model for these anomalies is a mutation in laboratory mice that is called "disorganization" (Ds), which functions as a variable autosomal dominant and leads to a wide variety of congenital anomalies involving many developmental processes and systems. Variable expressivity, asymmetrical manifestations, and low penetrance suggest that somatic events determine the location and nature of these anomalies. A statistical analysis suggests that occurrence of anomalies in mice with the Ds mutation follows a Poisson distribution. These results suggest that congenital anomalies in mice with the Ds mutation occur independently of each other. We propose that Ds causes a heritable predisposition to congenital anomalies and that Ds and appropriate somatic events combine to compromise normal development. We also propose that some sporadic, nonheritable congenital anomalies involve somatic mutations at Ds-like loci. Ds may therefore serve not only as a model for developmental anomalies in cell fate and pattern formation but also for complex developmental traits showing variable expressivity, low penetrance, and sporadic occurrence in mice and humans.

Abnormalities, Multiple↗

Analysis of the stochastic variation in LTQ single scan mass spectra.

A better understanding of the scan-to-scan signal intensity variation can lead to more sophisticated algorithms for database searching and de novo peptide sequencing using single scan mass spectra. In this study, we systematically studied the variation in relative intensity of m/z values in the single scan product ion mass spectra (MS2) derived from five representative precursor ions (MS1) collected using an LTQ linear ion trap under constant flow direct infusion conditions with peptide concentrations held constant. We applied a matching algorithm based on a pair hidden Markov model to align the peaks from each scan belonging to the same m/z value prior to assessing the signal intensity variation. The most significant single contributor to scan-to-scan signal intensity variation for high abundance ions was centroider error. Our study also showed that the variation in signal intensity is higher than what would be expected if the ion statistics derived from the dual geometry electron multiplier detector followed a Poisson distribution.

Algorithms↗

A longitudinal study of a natural lice infestation in growing cattle over two winter periods.

A group of 61 cattle which were naturally infested with lice was followed over two winter periods. Data were collected on the number of lice found at various body sites over this period. Summary statistics were produced and due to the repeated measured and hierarchical structure of the data, multi-level analysis was used to model the population dynamics of Bovicola bovis and assess the influence of the various hierarchical levels. A four level Poisson model was produced-level one, the individual number of lice at each parting; level two, the body site examined (shoulder, midline or rump); level three, the time of the inspection and level four, the animal. Seasonal fluctuation in lice numbers was modelled using a cosine function transformation of time. A seasonal pattern was seen in both years with lice counts higher in the first than the second year. The midline area was the most sensitive to detection of B. bovis. Variance contributed by the individual animal was less than that contributed by the body site examined and the time of the inspection. The model suggested that lice numbers within the shoulder and rump sites were near random following a Poisson distribution, but aggregation of lice occurred at the midline site with the distribution between animals following a Negative Binomial Pattern. The midline site was the most sensitive site for detecting B. bovis. Infestation numbers were higher in the first winter when cattle were younger. In the second winter, there was no difference in lice numbers between cattle exposed to infection for the first or second time.

Animals↗

Approaches to syndromic surveillance when data consist of small regional counts.

INTRODUCTION: Statistical systems designed for syndromic surveillance often must be able to monitor data received simultaneously from multiple regions. Such data might be of limited size, which would eliminate the possibility of using more common surveillance methods that assume data from a normal distribution. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to design and illustrate a multiregional surveillance system based on data inputs consisting of small regional counts, where frequencies are typically on the order of </=5. METHODS: Cumulative sum (CUSUM) methods designed for cumulating the sum of the deviations between observed and expected Poisson-distributed data were modified to account for changing expectations over time, including weekly and monthly effects. Data on lower respiratory tract infections during 1996-1999 at multiple Boston clinics among residents from 287 census tracts were used to illustrate the approach. RESULTS: When each region was monitored, 19% of the census tracts signaled a departure during 1999 from the base period (1996-1998) rates. When local statistics were used to monitor tracts and neighborhoods consisting of surrounding tracts, 60% of tracts experienced departures during 1999 from the base period. These results imply that the increases in lower respiratory tract infection that occurred during 1999 were geographically pervasive. CONCLUSIONS: Poisson CUSUM methods are useful for monitoring small regional counts over time. The methods can be generalized to account for time-varying expectations in the counts.

Epidemiologic Measurements↗

The evolving national birth prevalence of Down syndrome in Taiwan. A study on the impact of second-trimester maternal serum screening.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to determine whether the liberal use of second-trimester maternal serum screening in Taiwan started in 1994 had a measurable impact on birth prevalence of infants with Down syndrome (DS) in the past decade. METHODS: We based our study on the databases of 'National Birth Defect Registration and Notification System', 'Amniocentesis in Pregnant Women', and 'Demographic Fact Book' in Taiwan. Collected data included total registered birth number, the registered number of stillbirths, the registered numbers of live births and of DS stillbirths affected with DS, amniocentesis rates each year in pregnant women aged 35 or more, and the age distribution of pregnant women in Taiwan. The live birth rate of and total birth rate of fetuses affected with DS, and the rates of live birth and stillbirth to total birth with DS, were analyzed year by year, in order to understand the change of birth rate of infants affected with DS between 1993 and 2001. Those with isolated cleft palate (ICP) were also analyzed as internal control variable. Confidence interval of live birth rate of infants with DS under Poisson distribution was calculated. Chi-square test for trend in binomial proportions was performed to see if there is an increasing (or decreasing) trend in the proportion of incidence of fetuses affected with DS. The difference was statistically significant if a p value was <0.05. RESULTS: A total of 1 331 616 deliveries were collected during the study period, including 840 cases of DS confirmed by karyotyping study. A marked decrease in the live birth rates of case with DS occurred in 1994-95, from 0.63 per 1000 births to 0.23 per 1000 births. There was a crossover from more live births with DS to more stillbirths with DS during 1994 to 1996 after the implementation of second-trimester maternal serum screening for DS in 1994. In 1993, 76.9% of births diagnosed with DS were born alive, compared to 32.5% in 2001 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The policy of prenatal diagnosis program including amniocentesis for pregnant women aged 35 or more and the liberal application of maternal serum screening for DS in younger women was responsible for the marked decrease in the live births affected with DS in Taiwan from 1993 to 2001.

Age Distribution↗

Sister chromatid exchange frequency in breast cancer cases.

Sister chromatid exchange (SCE) were studied in 22 patients with breast cancer (i.e., four stage II; 12 stage III, six stage IV) and 10 normal healthy females as age-matched controls. The data obtained in these cases followed a Poisson distribution. An apparent increase in the average rate of SCE/cell was observed with the advancing stage of breast cancer.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Paraplegic pressure sore frequency versus circulation measurements.

Paraplegic subjects (N = 34) were examined to determine the association of pressure sore history with respect to ankle pressure ratio and buttocks cutaneous plethysmographic harmonic persistence. No relationship was found between pressure sore history and ankle pressure ratio. No significant difference in ankle pressure ratios exists for those who have a pressure sore history as compared to those who have not experienced a pressure sore in 5 years. Those subjects with a diminished buttocks circulation harmonic persistence are more likely to have experienced one or more pressure sores than those subjects with normal circulation characteristics. A Poisson distribution analysis of multiple pressure sore occurrence suggests that repeated pressure sores are unlikely to arise as the result of chance.

Ankle↗

The distribution of transposable elements within and between chromosomes in a population of Drosophila melanogaster. I. Element frequencies and distribution.

Data were collected on the distribution of nine families of transposable elements among second and third chromosomes isolated from a natural population of Drosophila melanogaster, by means of in situ hybridization of element probes to polytene chromosomes. It was found that the copy numbers per chromosome in the distal sections of the chromosome arms followed a Poisson distribution. Elements appeared to be distributed randomly along the distal sections of the chromosome arms. There was no evidence for linkage disequilibrium in the distal sections of the chromosomes, but some significant disequilibrium was detected in proximal regions. There were many significant correlations between different element families with respect to the identity of the sites that were occupied in the sample. There were also significant correlations between families with respect to sites at which elements achieved relatively high frequencies. Element frequencies per chromosome band were generally low in the distal sections, but were higher proximally. These results are discussed in the light of models of the population dynamics of transposable elements. It is concluded that they provide strong evidence for the operation of a force or forces opposing transpositional increase in copy number. The data suggest that the rate of transposition per element per generation is of the order of 10(-4), for the elements included in this study.

Animals↗

Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals for extreme low-level, paired counting.

Neyman-Pearson principles are briefly discussed and 95% confidence intervals of the form [0, ##.##] are presented. Use is made of the fact that the probability of the difference of two random variables, each with a Poisson distribution, can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order and elementary functions. The validity of the values is discussed.

Computer Simulation↗

Selectivity for temporal characteristics of sound and interaural time difference of auditory midbrain neurons in the grassfrog: a system theoretical approach.

The selectivity for temporal characteristics of sound and interaural time difference (ITD) was investigated in the torus semicircularis (TS) of the grassfrog. Stimuli were delivered by means of a closed sound system and consisted of binaurally presented Poisson distributed condensation clicks, and pseudo-random (RAN) or equidistant (EQU) click trains of which ITD was varied. With RAN and EQU trains, 86% of the TS units demonstrated a clear selectivity for ITD. Most commonly, these units had monotonically increasing ITD-rate functions. In general, units responding to Poisson clicks, responded also to RAN and EQU trains. One category of units which showed strong time-locking had comparable selectivities for ITD with both stimulus ensembles. A second category of units showed a combined selectivity for temporal structure and ITD. These units responded exclusively to EQU trains in a nonsynchronized way. From the responses obtained with the Poisson click ensemble so-called Poisson system kernels were determined, in analogy to the Wiener-Volterra functional expansion for nonlinear systems. The kernel analysis was performed up to second order. Contralateral (CL) first order kernels usually had positive or combinations of positive and negative regions, indicating that the contralateral ear exerted an excitatory or combined excitatory-inhibitory influence upon the neural response. Ipsilateral (IL), units were characterized by first order kernels which were not significantly different from zero, or kernels in which a single negative region was present. A large variety of CL second order kernels has been observed whereas rarely IL second order kernels were encountered. About 35% of the units possessed nonzero second order cross kernels, which indicates that CL and IL neural processes are interacting in a nonlinear way. Units demonstrating a pronounced selectivity for ITD, were generally characterized by positive CL combined with negative IL first order kernels. Findings suggested that, in the grassfrog, neural selectivity for ITD mainly is established by linear interaction of excitatory and inhibitory processes originating from the CL and IL ear, respectively. Units exhibiting strong time-locking to Poisson clicks and RAN and EQU trains had significantly shorter response latencies than moderately time-locking units. In the first category of units, a substantial higher number of nonzero first and second order kernels was observed. It was concluded that nonlinear response properties, as observed in TS units, most likely have to be ascribed to nonlinear characteristics of neural components located in the auditory nervous system peripheral to the torus semicircularis.

Acoustic Stimulation↗

Maximum (Max) and Mid-P confidence intervals and p values for the standardized mortality and incidence ratios.

The authors present algorithms to compute the confidence interval for a Poisson parameter (lambda) and the p value for testing the hypothesis that lambda is equal to a constant, which can be used to make inferences about the standardized mortality ratio and the standardized incidence ratio. The p value and confidence interval always agree, despite the discrete nature of the Poisson distribution. The authors also give simple equations to compute numeric approximations of the confidence limits that do not require the use of any probability distributions. An example based on data arising from a study of cancer incidence is given.

Algorithms↗

Temporal distribution of seizures in epilepsy.

A major problem in epileptology is why a seizure occurs at a particular moment in time. An initial step in solving this problem is a detailed analysis of the temporal distribution of seizures. Using methods and theories of stochastic processes, seizure patterns in a group of epileptic outpatients were examined for stationarity, randomness, dependency and periodicity in a prospective study. Sixteen of the 21 seizure diaries included in the study showed stationarity; 2 were non-stationary and 3 inconclusive. Eleven of the 16 stationary diaries were non-Poisson (P less than 0.005), indicating that in the majority of patients seizures did not occur randomly. The most frequently encountered phenomenon was seizure clustering. Clustering was considered when the diaries fulfilled all three criteria: (1) a positive R-test (P less than 0.001); (2) deviation from the fitted Poisson distribution towards clustering; and (3) the feature of an autoregressive process in the autocorrelogram plot. Dependency between seizure events was demonstrated in 8 of the 16 stationary diaries, computing first order transition probabilities. A detailed analysis of seizure occurrence is a major step towards a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seizure precipitation. This is exemplified by our finding of a relation between seizure frequency and the menstrual cycle.

Adolescent↗

Anti-erythropoietin antibody-mediated pure red cell aplasia after treatment with recombinant erythropoietin products: recommendations for minimization of risk.

Since 1998, there has been a marked increase in incidence of pure red cell aplasia secondary to development of anti-erythropoietin antibodies (Ab+ PRCA) in patients who have chronic kidney disease (CKD) and receive recombinant erythropoietin. The relationship between incidence of Ab+ PRCA and specific erythropoietin products has not been examined rigorously. Manufacturers provided data regarding exposure to erythropoietin products and incidence of Ab+ PRCA between January 1998 and March 2003 in patients with CKD. Assuming a Poisson distribution, a maximum likelihood estimate for the Poisson rate parameter was calculated for each product. A test for homogeneity of Poisson rates was conducted to compare likelihood estimates between products. Global incidence of Ab+ PRCA was relatively low. Likelihood estimates were not significantly different for Epogen, Procrit, and Aranesp, independent of their formulation or route of administration. Eprex lacking human serum albumin (HSA) and administered subcutaneously was associated with the greatest risk of Ab+ PRCA. HSA-containing Eprex administered subcutaneously was associated with a lower risk than HSA-free Eprex administered subcutaneously, but this risk exceeded that of intravenous Epogen and intravenous HSA-free Eprex. NeoRecormon administered subcutaneously was associated with less risk than subcutaneous HSA-free Eprex but more risk than intravenous Epogen. HSA-free Eprex should not be administered subcutaneously to patients with CKD due to increased risk of Ab+ PRCA. Although the subcutaneous administration of HSA-containing Eprex is riskier than intravenous Epogen and intravenous HSA-free Eprex, and the use of subcutaneous NeoRecormon is riskier than intravenous Epogen, there is currently no evidence that other products are safer.

Age Distribution↗

Interaction between explosive and analyte layers in explosive matrix-assisted plasma desorption mass spectrometry.

An HMX/insulin two-layer system was chosen as a model for further investigation of the matrix properties of explosive materials for protein analytes in plasma desorption mass spectrometry. The dependencies of the molecular ion yield and average charge state as a function of the analyte thickness were studied. An increase in the charge state of multiply protonated molecular species was confirmed as the major matrix effect, with the average charge state z at the smallest thickness studied being higher than in matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization and closer to the value obtained in electrospray ionization under standard acidic conditions. Observed charge state distributions are significantly narrower than the corresponding Poisson distributions, which suggests that the protonation of insulin is limited in plasma desorption by the number of basic sites in the molecule, similar to electrospray ionization. Both the curve displaying total molecular ion yield and the one showing the total charge (proton) yield as a function of the insulin thickness have maxima at a thickness different from an insulin monolayer. These observations diminish the significance of a matrix/analyte interface mechanism for the explosive matrix assistance. Instead, a mechanism related to the chemical energy release during conversion of the explosive after the ion impact is proposed. As additional mechanisms, enhanced protonation of the analyte through collisions with products of the explosive decay is considered, as well as electron scavenging by other products, which leads to a higher survival probability of positively charged protein molecular ions. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Journal Article↗

Voiding and incontinence frequencies: variability of diary data and required diary length.

Frequencies of voiding and urinary incontinence are commonly measured by a patient's recall or a diary. The recommended diary length varies from 1 to 14 days, with 7 days apparently being most common. To examine the statistical precision of these different modalities, we analyzed recall data and diary data of 74 patients with urinary frequency, incontinence, or both. Recall data on voiding and incontinence frequency were systematically higher and more variable than diary data. Longer diary length provided less variable diary data. The confidence interval of diary data was calculated by applying the normal distribution to daytime voiding frequency and the Poisson distribution to daytime incontinence frequency. For daytime voiding frequency, the 95% confidence interval was estimated to be (x - 2.65, x + 2.65) (x - 1.53, x + 1.53) (x - 1, x + 1), where x is the 1-day, 3-day, and 7-day diary mean, respectively. For daytime incontinence frequency, the confidence interval depended on both the diary length and the diary mean. It was estimated to be (0, 6.39), (1.72, 4.28), (2.36, 3.64), by using a diary mean of 3 or 1-day, 7-day, and 28-day diaries, respectively. Also, it was estimated to be (0, 1.02), (1.72, 4.28), (7.66, 12.34), when the 7-day diary mean was 0.5, 3, and 10, respectively. Studies with different samples of genuine stress incontinence (n = 37) and urge incontinence (n = 25) confirmed these results. In conclusion, we believe the 7-day diary is highly reliable for estimating voiding frequency and is a reasonable option for predicting incontinence episodes. However, the diary length should be extended in a patient with rarer events of incontinence, and it should be shortened for those who are incontinent more often or who are diagnosed with voiding frequency only.

Aged↗

Fragile sites and statistics.

A simple and reliable statistical method is proposed to distinguish real fragile sites from the casual accumulation of aberrations that can occur as a consequence of random distribution. It is based on a study of the expected random distribution, assumed to be equal to a Poisson distribution, with the expected value of events per band as the mean.

Chromosome Fragile Sites↗

Axosomatic synapses in the visual cortex of adult rat. A comparison between GABA-accumulating and other neurons.

Differences in axosomatic synapses between GABA-accumulating [G(+)N] or non-accumulating [G(-)N] neurons have been investigated in the visual cortex of adult rat. The neurons were classified and localized in light microscopic autoradiograms after [3H]GABA injections. The cells resectioned for electron microscopic identification of type 1 synapses (T1S) and type 2 synapses (T2S). A total of 167 neurons [45 G(+)N, 122 G(-)N] situated in laminae II-VI were evaluated. The two groups of neurons were not uniform populations. G(-)N included both pyramidal and non-pyramidal neurons, whereas no typical pyramidal neurons were found among G(+)N. A total of 691 synaptic contacts was evaluated for these groups of somata. The density of synapses was higher on G(+)N than on G(-)N. This was mainly due to a difference in the number of T1S. On G(-)N the frequency distributions of both types of synapses represented Poisson distributions, indicating that there were stochastic variations around mean values. In contrast, on G(+)N the distribution was exponential which suggests that G(+)N include several subpopulations with different densities of T1S. On all cortical neurons the average density of T2S was 509-60 T2S per 1000 microns2 of soma surface, which resembles the density in the neuropil. In contrast, T1S varied from zero to a mean of 12 per 1000 microns2 on G(-)N and to a mean of 51 per 1000 microns2 on G(+)N, i.e. the density of T1S, unlike T2S, is much smaller on neuronal somata than in the surrounding neuropil. It is suggested that the formation of axosomatic T1S, but not of T2S, is suppressed to a variable degree on almost all cortical neurons. Only on pyramidal neurons does the suppression of T1S seem to be complete.

Animals↗

Direct analysis of radiation-induced chromosome fragments and rings in unstimulated human peripheral blood lymphocytes by means of the premature chromosome condensation technique.

Development of the procedure to stimulate peripheral blood lymphocytes has greatly facilitated the understanding of chromosome aberration formation and repair mechanisms in human cells. Yet, because radiation induces far more initial chromosome breaks than are observed as aberrations in metaphase, it has not been possible to examine the kinetics of primary chromosome breakage and rejoining with this procedure. An improved method to induce premature chromosome condensation in unstimulated lymphocytes has been used to study primary chromosome breakage, rejoining, and ring formation at various times after irradiation with up to 800 rad of X-rays. The dose-response relations for chromosome fragments analyzed immediately or 1, 2, or 24 h after exposure were found to be linear. Rapid rejoining of chromosome fragments, which takes place in the first 3 h after X-ray exposure, was not correlated with a simultaneous increase in the formation of rings. The yield of rings per cell scored 24 h after irradiation, however, increased significantly and fit a linear quadratic equation. Both chromosome fragment rejoining and ring formation were completed about 6 h after irradiation. The frequency distributions of rings among cells followed a Poisson distribution, whereas chromosome fragments were overdispersed.

Animals↗