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PubMed2005

Frequency and predictors of hypoglycaemia in Type 1 and insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes: a population-based study.

AIMS: To ascertain the frequency and identify predictors of self-reported hypoglycaemia in Type 1 and insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A random sample of 267 people with insulin-treated diabetes were recruited from a population-based diabetes register in Tayside, Scotland. Each subject prospectively recorded the number of mild and severe hypoglycaemic episodes experienced over a 1-month period. Ordinal logistic regression was performed to identify potential predictors of hypoglycaemia. RESULTS: Five hundred and seventy-two hypoglycaemic events were reported by 155 patients. The participants with Type 1 diabetes had a total of 336 hypoglycaemic events with a rate of 42.89 events per patient per year. Of these, nine were severe hypoglycaemic events, with a rate of 1.15 events per patient per year. Participants with insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes experienced a total of 236 hypoglycaemic events with a rate of 16.37 events per patient per year. Of these, five were severe hypoglycaemic events, which would be equivalent to 0.35 events per patient per year. Predictors of hypoglycaemia in Type 1 diabetes were a history of previous hypoglycaemia (P = 0.006) and co-prescribing of any oral drug (P = 0.048). In patients with insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes, a history of previous hypoglycaemia (P < 0.0001) and duration of insulin treatment (P = 0.014) were significant predictors. CONCLUSION: The incidence of self-reported severe hypoglycaemia in insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes is lower than in Type 1 diabetes but does occur more often than previously reported and with sufficient frequency to cause significant morbidity. Duration of insulin treatment is a key predictor of hypoglycaemia in insulin-treated Type 2 diabetes.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of incomplete immunisation in Victorian children.

OBJECTIVE: Using probabilistic record linkage, this study aimed to determine the predictors of incomplete immunisation in Victorian children. METHODS: Records of all births in Victoria in 1998 were linked with records from the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR). The outcomes of interest were the predictors of immunisation status at 12 and 24 months of age. RESULTS: A total of 91.1% of birth records were linked with records from the ACIR (n=55,129). Immunisation coverage was 92.8% at 12 months and 89.2% at 24 months. After multivariate analysis, the following maternal factors were significant predictors of incomplete immunisation in children aged 12 months: higher parity, 12-23 months interval between pregnancies, not being married, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander or born overseas, younger age, no private health insurance, home birth, metropolitan place of birth, and being in the highest or lowest socioeconomic quintiles. Low birthweight and singleton birth were also significant predictors. All of these factors were also predictive of incomplete immunisation in children aged 24 months, with the exception of low birth weight, which was only significant in the very low birth weight category. Congenital malformations or prematurity were not significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Record linkage is an effective means of determining the relationship between immunisation status and socio-demographic and health-related factors. It enabled small groups within a large population to be studied, confirming findings from previous survey studies and indicating that several population groups were at increased risk of incomplete immunisation. The main limitation of the study was the under-reporting of immunisation status to the ACIR.

Birth Certificates↗

PubMed1997

Predictors of perceived health in hospitalized older persons: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the predictors of perceived health and predictors of changes in perceived health in frail hospitalized older persons during the year after hospitalization. DESIGN: Both cross-sectional and longitudinal multivariate analysis of data from a cohort followed for 1 year. SETTING: Six hospital in a group practice model health maintenance organization (HMO) in Southern California. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1889 persons aged 65 or older who met at least one of 13 inclusionary criteria for a randomized trial of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment consultation at admission and completed three Functional and Health Status Questionnaires (FHSQ) during a 12-month period. MEASUREMENTS: Functional and health status measures included basic and intermediate activities of daily living (BADL and IADI) and social activities (SA) scales from the Functional Status Questionnaire as well as the mental health index (MHI) and current health perception (CHP), scales from the Medical Outcomes Study short from. Subject's severity of disease was measured by the Resource Demand Scale (RD Scale). RESULTS: In the cross-sectional analyses, MHI score, IADL score, RD Scale, history of falls during the 3 months before hospitalization, and female gender were significant predictors of perceived health in all models for each time point, BADL score, age, presence of incontinence, and ethnicity were significant in the model for baseline only, and SA score was significant in models for 3 months and 12 months only. In the longitudinal analyses, the baseline CHP score and the changes in MHI, IADL, and BADL score predicted CHP change from 0 to 3 months and from 3 to 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Functional and psychosocial health indicators are the most important and most consistent predictors of perceived health. Our study showed that several predictors of perceived health in cross-sectional analysis did not predict changes in perceived health over a 1-year period. Hence, to fully understand the medical and social contributors to perceived health, a comprehensive approach using both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses is necessary.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2000

Predictors for functional decline among nondisabled older Japanese living in a community during a 3-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors for functional decline in basic activities of daily living (BADL) as well as predictors for decline in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) among nondisabled older Japanese people living in a community during a 3-year interval from 1992 to 1995. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING: A community-based environment. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 583 men and women aged 65 to 89 at baseline who were independent in both BADL and IADL. MEASUREMENTS: Independent variables regarding various factors potentially associated with functional decline were obtained from an interview survey and medical examinations at baseline. Dependent variables were functional status in BADL and IADL obtained at the time of the 3-year follow-up. RESULTS: During the 3-year follow-up, significant predictors for functional decline in BADL and only IADL decline included (1) age of > or = 75, (2) less hand-grip strength, and (3) a history of hospitalization during the past 1 year. In addition, having poor intellectual activities and having poor social roles were identified as significant predictors for functional decline in only IADL during the 3-year follow-up. Furthermore, not having the habit of taking a walk was identified as a significant predictor of functional decline in BADL during the 3-year interval. CONCLUSION: Having a high level hand-grip strength, good intellectual activities, and good social roles are strongly associated with remaining independence in IADL for the nondisabled Japanese persons aged > or = 65.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed1994

Predictors of device activation for ventricular arrhythmias and survival in patients with implantable pacemakers/defibrillators. CADENCE Investigators.

Predictors of survival and arrhythmia recurrence for patients with implanted defibrillators have been reported but patients with sustained, well-tolerated ventricular tachycardia were often excluded from these trials. Arrhythmia recurrence and survival in populations including these patients have been less well studied. The purpose of the present study was to examine predictors of spontaneous ventricular arrhythmias and mortality in patients who received a tiered therapy antitachycardia pacemaker/defibrillator for ventricular tachycardia, fibrillation, or both. Three hundred thirty-seven patients who received a Ventritex CADENCE tiered therapy antitachycardia device at one of 19 participating centers between July 11, 1989 and March 4, 1991 are included in this retrospective analysis. Diagnostic summary data and stored electrograms telemetered from the implanted device were assessed to determine characteristics of recurrent arrhythmias. Mean follow-up was 360 +/- 10 (SEM) days. Thirty-three patients died during follow-up. At least one recurrent ventricular arrhythmia was observed in 205 patients (61%). A total of 7,539 episodes were observed with a mean of 37 +/- 5 per patient. Patients with recurrent ventricular arrhythmias were slightly but significantly older (64 +/- 0.7 vs 59 +/- 1.2 years; P < 0.001) but were not distinguished by gender or underlying structural disease. Patients whose presenting arrhythmia was monomorphic ventricular tachycardia were more likely to experience recurrent ventricular arrhythmias (69% recurrence rate) than patients presenting with ventricular fibrillation or polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (46% recurrence rate; P < 0.001). Cycle length of spontaneous tachycardia was also a predictor of arrhythmia recurrence. Patients having slower ventricular arrhythmias were less likely to remain recurrence free. Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was similar for patients with and without recurrences. Younger age and absence of arrhythmia recurrence but not presenting arrhythmia were predictors of survival. We conclude that age and presentation with monomorphic ventricular tachycardia are important predictors of arrhythmia recurrence for this patient population. Exclusion of patients with monomorphic ventricular tachycardia underestimates the rate of recurrent ventricular arrhythmias and utilization of device therapy.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of appropriate defibrillator therapy among patients with an implantable defibrillator that delivers cardiac resynchronization therapy.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to determine predictors of appropriate implantable defibrillator (ICD) therapy among patients with heart failure who are treated with a cardiac resynchronization therapy-defibrillator (CRT-D). METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients enrolled in the Ventak CHF/Contak CD study were treated with a CRT-D device and were required to have NYHA class II-IV CHF, QRS duration > or = 120 msec, and a class I or II indication for an ICD. The study database was retrospectively analyzed during the 6-month postimplant period to identify predictors of appropriate ICD therapy. Five hundred and one of the 581 patients enrolled in the trial had successful device implantation and were included in this analysis. Patients were mostly male (83%), 66 +/- 11 years old, and had coronary artery disease (69%), a mean left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) = 0.22 +/- 0.07, and NYHA class II (33%), III (58%), or IV (9%) CHF symptoms. During 6 months of follow-up, 73 of 501 (14%) patients received an appropriate ICD therapy. Two independent predictors of appropriate therapy were identified: a history of a spontaneous, sustained ventricular arrhythmia (HR = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.31-3.20; P = 0.002) and NYHA class IV CHF (HR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.10-2.96; P = 0.019). When patients with NYHA class II were excluded from analysis, a history of a sustained ventricular arrhythmia and the presence of NYHA class IV CHF symptoms remained as independent predictors of appropriate ICD therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In a select population of advanced heart failure patients receiving a CRT-D, NYHA class IV CHF was a powerful independent predictor of appropriate ICD therapy. Approximately one-quarter of the patients with NYHA class IV CHF who received a CRT-D device received an appropriate ICD therapy within 3 months after implant. Additional studies are needed to confirm an association between class IV CHF symptoms and an increased frequency of ICD shocks.

Aged↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Valve replacement surgery complicated by acute renal failure--predictors of early mortality.

BACKGROUND: Acute renal failure (ARF) is a serious complication of valve replacement surgery. The aim of this study was to determine the predictors of early mortality and if causative factors are preventable. METHODS: In the 25-year period between 1977 and 2002, 255 (2.6%) of 9721 patients (11,007 operations), who had valve replacement surgery, were managed for ARF with dialysis. The mean age of the patient population was 67.1 +/- 11.6 years (range 24 to 87 years, median 70.3 years). Fifty preoperative, operative, and postoperative risk factors were assessed as predictors of early mortality by univariate and multivariate modeling. RESULTS: The early mortality was 25.1% (64 patients). The predictors by univariate analysis were: New York Heart Association class (p = 0.001); ASA within 5 days (p = 0.030); cardiogenic shock (p = 0.010); infection--perioperative sepsis and preoperative endocarditis (p = 0.000); intraoperative stroke (p = 0.003); status--emergent (p = 0.000); mitral valve replacement (p = 0.040); ischemic (X-clamp) time >120 minutes (p = 0.020); cardiopulmonary bypass time >180 minutes (p = 0.000); surgical time >360 minutes (p = 0.000); surgical hemorrhage (p = 0.020); acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (p = 0.040). Multivariate predictors were urgent status of operation, odds ratio (OR) 0.3 (p = 0.029); emergent status of operation, OR 5.8 (p = 0.034); ischemic (X-clamp) time >120 minutes, OR 4.4 (p = 0.030); surgical time >360 minutes, OR 6.3 (p = 0.019); surgical hemorrhage, OR 5.1 (p = 0.003); perioperative nosocomial sepsis, OR 3.8 (p = 0.006); and preoperative endocarditis, OR 4.4 (p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Early mortality from ARF in valve replacement surgery is related to emergent status, ischemic and surgical times, surgical hemorrhage, and nosocomial infection/preoperative endocarditis. Among the variables assessed, preoperative renal insufficiency, unstable angina/recent myocardial infarction <6 weeks, and concomitant coronary artery bypass were not predictive. The evaluation of predictors of ARF requires further extensive assessment.

Acute Kidney Injury↗

PubMed2003

Is total out-of-hospital time a significant predictor of trauma patient mortality?

OBJECTIVE: To determine if there is an association between total out-of-hospital time and trauma patient mortality. METHODS: A retrospective review was performed of a convenience sample of consecutive medical records for all admitted patients transported by helicopter or ambulance from the scene of injury to the regional trauma center. Descriptive and univariate analyses were conducted to determine which variables were associated with patient mortality and total out-of-hospital time. Multiple predictors logistic regression was used to determine if total out-of-hospital time was associated with trauma patient outcome, while controlling for the variables associated with trauma patient mortality. RESULTS: Of the 2,925 patients who were transported from the scene, 1,877 met the inclusion criteria. Six percent (116) did not survive. The multiple predictors model included CUPS (critical, unstable, potentially unstable, stable) status, patient age, Injury Severity Score, Revised Trauma Score, and total out-of-hospital time as predictors of mortality. Total out-of-hospital time (odds ratio 0.987; p = 0.092) was the only variable not found to be a significant predictor of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Provider-assigned CUPS status, patient age, Injury Severity Score, and Revised Trauma Score all were significant predictors of trauma patient mortality. Total out-of-hospital time was not associated with mortality.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Resuscitation Predictor Scoring Scale for inhospital cardiac arrests.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the key factors influencing survival from cardiopulmonary resuscitation attempts and to produce a survival predictor scale for use during a resuscitation attempt. METHOD: Bivariate analysis of individual survival predictors and a prospective analysis of survival based on logistic regression models. Included in this seven year study (1993-2000) were 2567 inhospital resuscitation calls of which 1633 received full cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Immediate, 24 hour and discharge survival rates were the main outcome measures with additional analysis for the development of the Resuscitation Predictor Scoring Scale (RPS Scale). RESULTS: The immediate survival rate was 41%, 28% at 24 hours, and 19% by discharge. Multivariate analysis showed the main factors influencing 24 hour survival to be the duration of the arrest, primary arrhythmia (VT, VF, asystole, or PEA), age, and the primary mode of arrest (respiratory or cardiac). The RPS Scale was developed from these key predictors giving resuscitation teams an accurate prediction of survival 15 minutes into a resuscitation attempt. CONCLUSION: Data collection and analysis of cardiopulmonary resuscitation attempts are essential for the formulation of survival indicators. In this case the data have enabled the formulation of a survival predictor scale that will quantify the decision making process regarding the termination of cardiopulmonary resuscitation attempts.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Prospective study of predictors of attendance for breast screening in inner London.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictors of first-round attendance for breast screening in an inner city area. DESIGN: Prospective design in which women were interviewed or completed a postal questionnaire before being sent their invitation for breast screening. Sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, and attitudes, beliefs, and intentions were used as predictors of subsequent attendance. A randomised control group was included to assess the effect of being interviewed on attendance. SETTING: Three neighbouring health districts in inner south east London. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3291 women aged 50-64 years who were due to be called for breast screening for the first time. The analysis of predictors was based on a subsample of 1301, reflecting a response rate of 75% to interview and 36% to postal questionnaire. MAIN RESULTS: Attendance was 42% overall, and 70% in those who gave an interview or returned a questionnaire. There was little evidence for an interview effect on attendance. The main findings from the analysis of predictors are listed below. (These were necessarily based on those women who responded to interview/questionnaire and so may not be generalisable to the full sample.) (1) Sociodemographic factors: Women in rented accommodation were less likely to go for screening but other indicators of social class and education were not predictive of attendance. Age and other risk factors for breast cancer were unrelated to attendance, as was the distance between home and the screening centre. Married or single women were more likely to attend than divorced, separated, or widowed women, and black women had a higher than average attendance rate; however, neither of these relationships was found in the interview sample. (2) Health behaviours: Attenders were less likely to have had a recent breast screen, more likely to have had a cervical smear, more likely to go to the dentist for check ups, and differed from non-attenders with regard to drinking frequency. Exercise, smoking, diet change, and breast self-examination were unrelated to attendance. (3) Attitudes, beliefs, and intentions: The two best predictors were measures of the perceived importance of regular screening for cervical and breast cancer and intentions to go for breast screening. Also predictive were beliefs about the following: the personal consequences of going for breast screening, the effectiveness of breast screening, the chances of getting breast cancer, and the attitudes of significant others (the woman's husband/partner and children). Women who reported a moderate amount of worry about breast cancer were more likely to attend than those at the two extremes. CONCLUSIONS: Attenders and non-attenders differ in two broad areas: the health related behaviours they engage in and the attitudes, beliefs, and intentions they have towards breast cancer and breast screening. The latter are potentially amenable to change, and though different factors may operate among women who do not respond to questionnaires, the findings offer hope that attendance rates can be improved by targeting the relevant attitudes and beliefs. This could be done by changing the invitation letter and its accompanying literature, through national and local publicity campaigns, and by advice given by GPs, practice nurses, and other health professionals. It is essential that such interventions are properly evaluated, preferably in randomised controlled studies.

Attitude to Health↗

PubMed1999

Health, cognitive, and psychosocial factors as predictors of mortality in an elderly community sample.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To examine whether cognitive and psychosocial factors predict mortality once physical health is controlled. DESIGN: A prospective study of community dwelling elderly. Mortality was assessed over a period of 3-4 years after the baseline assessment of predictors. The data were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: Canberra and Queanbeyan, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A sample of 897 people aged 70 or over and living in the community, drawn from the compulsory electoral roll. RESULTS: For the sample as a whole, the significant predictors of mortality were male sex, poor physical health, poor cognitive functioning, and low neuroticism. Men had an adjusted relative risk of mortality of 2.5 compared with women. For the male sub-sample, poor self rated health and a poor performance on a speeded cognitive task were significant predictors, while for women, greater disability, low systolic blood pressure, and a low score on a dementia screening test were the strongest predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality was predicted by physical ill health and poor cognitive functioning. Psychosocial factors such as socioeconomic status, psychiatric symptoms, and social support did not add to the prediction of mortality, once sex, physical health, and cognitive functioning were controlled. Mortality among men was more than twice that of women, even when adjusted for other predictors.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

Children with headache: clinical predictors of surgical space-occupying lesions and the role of neuroimaging.

PURPOSE: To determine clinical predictors useful in differentiation of surgical lesions from medically treated disorders and the role of neuroimaging in children with headache. MATERIALS' AND METHODS: In a 4-year retrospective study, 315 patients with headache and no known neurologic disorder underwent brain magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Sixty-nine patients also underwent brain computed tomography (CT). Clinical data were correlated with findings from MR imaging and CT and the final diagnosis by means of logistic regression. RESULTS: Thirteen (4%) patients had surgical space-occupying lesions. Seven independent multivariate predictors of a surgical lesion were identified. Sleep-related headache and no family history of migraine were the strongest predictors. Other predictors included vomiting, absence of visual symptoms, headache of less than 6 months duration, confusion, and abnormal neurologic examination findings. A positive correlation between number of predictors and risk of surgical lesion was noted (P < .0001). No difference between MR imaging and CT was noted in detection of surgical space-occupying lesions, and there were no false-positive or false-negative surgical lesions detected with either modality on the basis of clinical follow-up. CONCLUSION: Children at high risk on the basis of these criteria usually require neuroimaging, while children at low risk may be safely followed up clinically without neuroimaging.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Prevalence and predictors of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in a population-based study of breast cancer in white and black American women ages 35 to 64 years.

Although well studied in families at high-risk, the roles of mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes are poorly understood in breast cancers in the general population, particularly in Black women and in age groups outside of the very young. We examined the prevalence and predictors of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in 1,628 women with breast cancer and 674 women without breast cancer who participated in a multicenter population-based case-control study of Black and White women, 35 to 64 years of age. Among cases, 2.4% and 2.3% carried deleterious mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. BRCA1 mutations were significantly more common in White (2.9%) versus Black (1.4%) cases and in Jewish (10.2%) versus non-Jewish (2.0%) cases; BRCA2 mutations were slightly more frequent in Black (2.6%) versus White (2.1%) cases. Numerous familial and demographic factors were significantly associated with BRCA1 and, to a lesser extent, BRCA2 carrier status, when examined individually. In models considering all predictors together, early onset ages in cases and in relatives, family history of ovarian cancer, and Jewish ancestry remained strongly and significantly predictive of BRCA1 carrier status, whereas BRCA2 predictors were fewer and more modest in magnitude. Both the combinations of predictors and effect sizes varied across racial/ethnic and age groups. These results provide first-time prevalence estimates for BRCA1/BRCA2 in breast cancer cases among understudied racial and age groups and show key predictors of mutation carrier status for both White and Black women and women of a wide age spectrum with breast cancer in the general population.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Annual rate and predictors of conversion to dementia in subjects presenting mild cognitive impairment criteria defined according to a population-based study.

Elderly subjects diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are becoming the target of intervention trials. The criteria used for MCI are principally issued from prospective clinical studies, although longitudinal population-based studies having identified several cognitive predictors of dementia can be of great contribution in the definition of these criteria. This study was conducted to explore the external validity of MCI criteria issued from a longitudinal population-based study, and subsequently to identify the best predictors of the short-term conversion to Alzheimer's disease 2 years after the MCI diagnosis. Ninety elderly volunteers with memory complaint diagnosed with MCI on the basis of their functional and neuropsychological performances were followed up within 2 years. The potential predictors of the conversion to dementia collected at baseline included age, gender, educational level, size of temporal lobe, apolipoprotein E genotype and a series of neuropsychological measures (Mac Nair Scale, Mini-Mental State Examination, Benton Visual Retention Test, Isaacs Set Test, Digit Symbol Substitution Task, Letter Cancellation Task, digit span tasks and finger-tapping test). Within the 2 years, 29 subjects (32.2%) presented a conversion to dementia. The risk of conversion to dementia was associated with age and size of temporal lobe but not with gender, education, or apolipoprotein E4 genotype. Several neuropsychological measures were associated with the risk of conversion to dementia, but in a logistic regression performed with the significant variables found in the univariate analysis, only the Letter Cancellation Test was shown to be an independent predictor. In conclusion, the quite elevated conversion rates obtained show the usefulness, when defining MCI criteria, of considering not only memory impairment but also impairment in other cognitive areas, as well as mild impairment on higher-order activities of daily living. Among the variables considered, the Letter Cancellation Test proved to be a major predictor of short-term conversion to dementia.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1996

Clinical and psychosocial variables in different diagnostic groups: their interrelationships and value as predictors of course and outcome during a 14-year follow-up.

A 14-year follow-up study was conducted on 214 patients from the diagnostic groups schizophrenia, affective psychosis, and neurosis to determine the relationships between various clinical and psychosocial variables and to assess their value as predictors of long-term course and outcome. Particular emphasis was placed on ascertaining the interrelationships between the variables within the individual diagnostic groups. The results indicate that for schizophrenia, severity of disease at discharge from index hospitalization was the principal predictor of the number and duration of further hospitalizations. Furthermore, it predicted the severity of illness and social functioning at follow-up. For affective psychosis, the Global Assessment Scale score predicted the number and duration of further hospitalizations. Severity of illness, social functioning, and age at first hospitalization were predictors of occupational development. For neurotic disorders, severity of disease and social adjustment at discharge from index hospitalization were each predictors of themselves at final follow-up. In addition, age at first hospitalization was an important predictor of most course and psychosocial variables. Among the endogenous course variables within the schizophrenic group, the number and duration of further hospitalizations had a substantial bearing on severity of illness and social functioning at follow-up. For affective psychoses, indicators of occupational development and number of hospitalizations had an impact on severity of illness and social functioning at follow-up. Our findings reveal a good overall predictive value for the clinical and psychosocial variables within each of the diagnostic categories studied.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Morphological predictors of acute complications after percutaneous excimer laser coronary angioplasty. Results of a comprehensive angiographic analysis: importance of the eccentricity index.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous excimer laser coronary angioplasty (ELCA) is a new technique for recanalization of arteries obstructed by coronary atherosclerosis. This study was conducted to assess the complication rate and determine the influence of clinical and angiographic characteristics on complications after ELCA. METHODS AND RESULTS: A detailed, quantitative, angiographic core laboratory analysis of patients undergoing ELCA was performed by two experienced angiographers who were not the primary laser angioplasty operators. Two hundred patients underwent 203 separate procedures on 220 lesions at three medical centers. Laser success was achieved in 180 lesions (81.8%) and procedural success in 199 (90.5%). Emergency coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) was required in five patients (2.5%). One patient suffered a Q wave myocardial infarction; there were no deaths. Also, acute closure and perforation occurred in 10 (4.5%) and three (1.4%) vessels, respectively. Coronary dissections after laser treatment were seen in 36 vessels (16.4%). Multivariate analysis found two independent preprocedural factors related to complications: eccentricity index, which is the percent deviation of the lesion lumen from the center of the artery (p = 0.0007), and proximal vessel diameter (p = 0.033). In addition, an abrupt proximal face of the lesion was associated with angiographic complications by univariate analysis (p = 0.051). Multivariate analysis showed the eccentricity index (p = 0.032) to be the only independent predictor for the occurrence of any one or more of the important complications (emergency CABG, perforation, acute closure, or Q wave myocardial infarction), whereas lesion angle greater than 45 degrees was a significant univariate predictor (p = 0.029). Other predictors of complications with balloon percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, such as increased lesion length, rough edges, calcification, ulceration, and branch point, were not predictive of complications with the excimer laser. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of lesion eccentricity is the most powerful predictor of complications after ELCA. This and other morphological predictors may be of benefit in the selection of patients for ELCA as well as directing future development of this new technology.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of cerebrovascular events and death among patients with valvular heart disease: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is little population-based information on cerebrovascular events and survival among valvular heart disease patients. We used the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method and the Cox proportional hazards model to determine rates and predictors of cerebrovascular events and death among valve disease patients. METHODS: This population-based historical cohort study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, reviewed residents with a first echocardiographic diagnosis of mitral stenosis (n=19), mitral regurgitation (n=528), aortic stenosis (n=140), and aortic regurgitation (n=106) between 1985 and 1992. RESULTS: During 2694 person-years of follow-up, 98 patients developed cerebrovascular events and 356 died. Compared with expected numbers, these observations are significantly elevated, with standardized morbidity ratio of 3.2 (95% CI, 2.6 to 3.8) and 2. 5 (95% CI, 2.2 to 2.7), respectively. Independent predictors of cerebrovascular events were age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis. The risk ratio of severe aortic stenosis was 3.5 (95% CI, 1.4 to 8.6), with atrial fibrillation conferring greater risk at younger age. Predictors of death were age, sex, cerebrovascular events, ischemic heart disease, and congestive heart failure, the greatest risk being among those with both congestive heart failure and cerebrovascular events (risk ratio=8.8; 95% CI, 5. 8 to 13.4). Valve disease type and severity were not independent determinants of death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of cerebrovascular events and death among patients with valve disease remains high. Age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis are independent predictors of cerebrovascular events, and age, sex, cerebrovascular events, congestive heart failure, and ischemic heart disease are independent predictors of death in these patients.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Predictors of success and satisfaction in the practice of psychiatry: a preliminary follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the predictors of psychiatrists' perceived success and personal satisfaction with their careers. The present study examines self-reported success and personal satisfaction with their careers in a cohort of psychiatrists followed for more than 20 years. METHODS: A total of 29 psychiatrists, all of whom had participated in a study during their residency 21 to 24 years earlier, completed a self-report questionnaire. The first set of questions addressed the type and characteristics of their professional practice; the second set assessed aspects of their nonprofessional practice; and the third set assessed aspects of their nonprofessional, personal lifestyles. The personality traits of neuroticism and extraversion were assessed during the residency years and were used as predictors. Composite measures of self-perceived external success and personal satisfaction were computed. Regression models were constructed to determine the best predictors of these composite measures. RESULTS: Neuroticism proved to be a significant predictor of external success but not of personal satisfaction, with higher scores predicting a lower rating of perceived external success. There were 2 practice characteristics--involvement with research and practising from an orientation other than psychoanalytic--that predicted perception of success. One personal lifestyle characteristic--the perception that one's nonprofessional life sustained professional life--also predicted perception of success. The best predictor of personal satisfaction was overall satisfaction with nonprofessional aspects of life. CONCLUSIONS: Personality, nonprofessional social support, and engaging in research are associated with greater perceived success and personal satisfaction with a career in psychiatry.

Career Choice↗