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PubMed2005

Dynamic modeling of the ratio volatile fatty acids/bicarbonate alkalinity in a UASB reactor for potato processing wastewater treatment.

In this work, dynamic mathematical model for the prediction of the operational parameter volatile fatty acids/bicarbonate alkalinity (VFA/ALK) in a UASB reactor was developed. The dynamic modeling technique was applied successfully to a two-year data record from an industrial wastewater treatment plant of a potato processing industry. The technique used included regression analysis by residuals. Seventeen parameters were examined including the following: wastewater's flow rate, reactor's temperature and pH, total and soluble influent COD, wastewater's temperature and pH, total and soluble effluent COD, volatile fatty acids, alkalinity, biogas production rate and each parameter with a time lag of up to 10 days. Finally, after all parameters and all time lag trials the best fitted model was developed. The model's adequacy was checked by chi2 test for a data record of the same UASB reactor but at a different time period and proved to be satisfactory. Additionally, the model's ability to predict and to control the plant's operation via VFA/ALK was examined. Through this model, in contrary to steady state models, various aspects of the process can be enlighten, such as the fact that the hydrolysis of starch requires at least a resident time of seven days.

Bicarbonates↗

PubMed1984

Attributional style: degree of depression, respondent's sex, and nature of the attributional event.

Attributional responses made to both good and bad events by male and female Ss (N = 117) differing in degree of clinical depression were examined in light of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression. Data comparison with control Ss provided support for the model's prediction. Clinically depressed Ss assumed more personal responsibility than control Ss for their life outcomes, especially the negative ones. While significant main effects were demonstrated in the clinical sample for all three variables, the significant two and three-way interaction effects revealed a complex relationship between causal attribution and depression.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

PubMed2004

Increased breath markers of oxidative stress in normal pregnancy and in preeclampsia.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare the intensity of oxidative stress in normal pregnancy, preeclampsia, and nonpregnant women using a breath test. STUDY DESIGN: We studied primiparous women in third trimester pregnancy (38 uncomplicated, 26 with preeclampsia) and 60 nonpregnant control subjects. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in alveolar breath were analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy to construct the breath methylated alkane contour (BMAC), a 3-dimensional display of abundance of C4-C20 alkanes and monomethylated alkanes. RESULTS: The mean volume under curve (VUC) of the BMAC was significantly higher in preeclampsia patients than in normal pregnant women (P < .003) and nonpregnant control subjects (P < .005). A predictive model employing 5 VOCs distinguished preeclampsia from uncomplicated pregnancy (sensitivity = 92.3%, specificity = 89.7%; cross-validated sensitivity = 88.5%, specificity = 79.3%). CONCLUSION: A breath test significantly demonstrated greater oxidative stress in women with preeclampsia than in uncomplicated pregnancy and nonpregnant control subjects. The breath test accurately identified women with established preeclampsia, but further studies are required to determine if this test can predict the onset of disease.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Estimating prevalence of community morbidity due to intestinal helminths: prevalence of infection as an indicator of the prevalence of disease.

The rational design of helminth control programmes for endemic areas requires that the limited resources be focused on the communities in greatest need. The process of locality-targetting would be facilitated by a simple, inexpensive method of assessing morbidity at the community level. This paper describes how a simple model of the distribution of infection in human populations can use infection prevalence data to predict the proportion of heavy, and potentially clinically significant, infections in a community. Analysis of observed data for Ascaris lumbricoides indicates that the risk of clinical ascariasis increases non-linearly with the prevalence of infection. The predicted prevalence of morbidity is low up to approximately 60% prevalence of infection, but increases very rapidly thereafter. Analyses of data for Trichuris trichiura, Schistosoma mansoni, S. haematobium and the hookworms suggests qualitatively similar patterns. The application of the model in predicting resource requirements for control is illustrated using infection prevalence data for A. lumbricoides in Brazil.

Ascariasis↗

PubMed1980

Interconversion of yeast cell types by transposable genes.

The a and alpha cell types of budding yeast saccharomyces cerevisiae are controlled by alternate alleles of the mating-type locus (MAT), MATa and mat alpha. The cell types can be interconverted by switching alleles of MAT. The loci HMRa and HML alpha, which are loosely linked to MAT, are involved in mating-type switching. Experimental evidence for their role in MAT interconversion is presented. As a result of switching, the homothallic and heterothallic strains containing the amber and ochre mutations within the HMRa locus yield corresponding amber and ochre mutant mata loci. Similarly, the hml alpha mutant strain generates mat alpha mutant alleles. That is, specific mutations from HMRa and HML alpha are transmitted to MAT. A replica of the mating-type coding information originating from these loci is transposed to MAT, where it replaces the existing information. Furthermore, "Hawthorne deletions" in strains containing hmra-amber/ochre result in production of mata-amber/ochre alleles. Therefore, genetic information for MATa resides at HMRa. The switches occur in a defined set of clonally related cells. Thus, the efficient interconversion of yeast cell types is mediated by an unidirectional transfer of genetic information between nonallelic sites in a nonrandom and programmed fashion. The results are inconsistent with the "flip-flop" models, but satisfy a key prediction of the general controlling element and the specific cassette models proposed for mating-type interchange.

Alleles↗

PubMed2005

The suppressive field of neurons in lateral geniculate nucleus.

The responses of neurons in lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) exhibit powerful suppressive phenomena such as contrast saturation, size tuning, and masking. These phenomena cannot be explained by the classical center-surround receptive field and have been ascribed to a variety of mechanisms, including feedback from cortex. We asked whether these phenomena might all be explained by a single mechanism, contrast gain control, which is inherited from retina and possibly strengthened in thalamus. We formalized an intuitive model of retinal contrast gain control that explicitly predicts gain as a function of local contrast. In the model, the output of the receptive field is divided by the output of a suppressive field, which computes the local root-mean-square contrast. The model provides good fits to LGN responses to a variety of stimuli; with a single set of parameters, it captures saturation, size tuning, and masking. It also correctly predicts that responses to small stimuli grow proportionally with contrast: were it not for the suppressive field, LGN responses would be linear. We characterized the suppressive field and found that it is similar in size to the surround of the classical receptive field (which is eight times larger than commonly estimated), it is not selective for stimulus orientation, and it responds to a wide range of frequencies, including very low spatial frequencies and high temporal frequencies. The latter property is hardly consistent with feedback from cortex. These measurements thoroughly describe the visual properties of contrast gain control in LGN and provide a parsimonious explanation for disparate suppressive phenomena.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Dual nonlinearities regulate contrast sensitivity in pattern discrimination tasks.

Many current psychophysical models propose that visual processing in cortex is hierarchical, with nonlinearities sandwiched between linear stages of processing. In earlier publications, we proposed a model of this type to account for masking effects found with spatial frequency and orientation discriminations. Our model includes two nonlinear mechanisms that regulate contrast sensitivity in early cortical mechanisms. The first is a local within-pathway nonlinearity that accelerates at low contrasts but is compressive at high. The second is a pooled nonlinear gain control process that operates over a broad range of neurons with different tuning characteristics. Here, we test predictions of the model for spatial frequency discriminations. The model predicts that at low contrasts, adding a grating mask oriented parallel to test gratings will improve discrimination performance via operation of the within-pathway nonlinearity, analogous to the "dipper effect" found with contrast discriminations. Adding an orthogonally oriented mask is predicted to have no effect at low contrasts, where pooled gain control processes contribute little to performance. At high contrasts, the model predicts that performance will asymptote and become independent of contrast with either parallel or orthogonal masks. The results confirm model predictions.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Fertility control as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger (Meles meles) populations in south-west England: predictions from a spatial stochastic simulation model.

A spatial stochastic simulation model was used to assess the potential of fertility control, based on a yet-to-be-developed oral bait-delivered contraceptive directed at females, for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in south-west England. The contraceptive had a lifelong effect so that females rendered sterile in any particular year remained so for the rest of their lives. The efficacy of fertility control alone repeated annually for varying periods of time was compared with a single culling operation and integrated control involving an initial single cull followed by annually repeated fertility control. With fertility control alone, in no instance was the disease eradicated completely while a viable badger population (mean group size of at least one individual) was still maintained. Near eradication of the disease (less than 1% prevalence) combined with the survival of a minimum viable badger population was only achieved under a very limited set of conditions, either with high efficiency of control (95%) over a short time period (1-3 years) or a low efficiency of control (20%) over an intermediate time period (10-20 years). Under these conditions, it took more than 20 years for the disease to decline to such low levels. A single cull of 80% efficiency succeeded in near eradication of the disease (below 1% prevalence) after a period of 6-8 years, while still maintaining a viable badger population. Integrated strategies reduced disease prevalence more rapidly and to lower levels than culling alone, although the mean badger group size following the onset of control was smaller. Under certain integrated strategies, principally where a high initial cull (80%) was followed by fertility control over a short (1-3 year) time period, the disease could be completely eradicated while a viable badger population was maintained. However, even under the most favourable conditions of integrated control, it took on average more than 12 years following the onset of control for the disease to disappear completely from the badger population. These results show that whilst fertility control would not be a successful strategy for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers if used alone, it could be effective if used with culling as part of an integrated strategy. This type of integrated strategy is likely to be more effective in terms of disease eradication than a strategy employing culling alone. However, the high cost of developing a suitable fertility control agent, combined with the welfare and conservation implications, are significant factors which should be taken into account when considering its possible use as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in the UK.

Animals↗

PubMed2001

Validation for a recirculation model.

Recent Clean Air Act regulations designed to reduce volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions have placed new restrictions on painting operations. Treating large volumes of air which contain dilute quantities of VOCs can be expensive. Recirculating some fraction of the air allows an operator to comply with environmental regulations at reduced cost. However, there is a potential impact on employee safety because indoor pollutants will inevitably increase when air is recirculated. A computer model was developed, written in Microsoft Excel 97, to predict compliance costs and indoor air concentration changes with respect to changes in the level of recirculation for a given facility. The model predicts indoor air concentrations based on product usage and mass balance equations. This article validates the recirculation model using data collected from a C-130 aircraft painting facility at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. Air sampling data and air control cost quotes from vendors were collected for the Hill AFB painting facility and compared to the model's predictions. The model's predictions for strontium chromate and isocyanate air concentrations were generally between the maximum and minimum air sampling points with a tendency to predict near the maximum sampling points. The model's capital cost predictions for a thermal VOC control device ranged from a 14 percent underestimate to a 50 percent overestimate of the average cost quotes. A sensitivity analysis of the variables is also included. The model is demonstrated to be a good evaluation tool in understanding the impact of recirculation.

Air Pollution, Indoor↗

PubMed2003

The effects of delays in radiotherapy treatment on tumour control.

There is often a considerable delay from initial tumour diagnosis to the start of radiotherapy treatment, which may be due to factors such as waiting lists and referral delays. This paper uses widely published models and clinical parameters to calculate the effect of delays in treatment on local tumour control for four different types of tumour-squamous cell carcinoma (head and neck), breast, cervix and prostate. The Poisson model for tumour control probability (TCP), an exponential function for tumour growth and the linear quadratic model of cell kill are used to calculate the change in TCP for delays between diagnosis and treatment of up to 100 days. Typical values of the clinical parameters have been taken from the literature; these include alpha and beta, sigma(alpha), tumour size at diagnosis, pre-treatment doubling time, delay in onset of accelerated repopulation and doubling time during treatment. It is acknowledged that there are limitations in the reliability of these data for predicting absolute values of tumour control, but models are still useful for predicting how changes in treatment parameters are likely to affect the outcome. It is shown that for fast-growing tumours a delay of 1-2 months can have a significant adverse effect on the outcome, whereas for slow-growing tumours such as Ca prostate a delay of a few months does not significantly reduce the probability of tumour control. These calculations show the importance of ensuring that delays from diagnosis through to treatment are minimized, especially for patients with rapidly proliferating tumours.

Appointments and Schedules↗

PubMed1999

Predicting dysphoria in adolescence from actual and perceived peer acceptance in childhood.

Predicted dysphoria in midadolescence using actual and perceived peer acceptance of 68 4th and 5th graders (48% male, 30% minority). Main effect, additive, and interactive models for predicting dysphoria were examined. Perceived acceptance predicted later dysphoria, after controlling for initial levels of dysphoria, supporting the main effect model. Actual acceptance did not uniquely contribute to prediction of later dysphoria, and actual acceptance did not moderate the prediction of dysphoria from perceived acceptance. Sex differences in dysphoria were significant, but sex did not moderate the predictive links between perceived acceptance and dysphoria.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Certainty of paternity and paternal investment in eastern bluebirds and tree swallows.

Extra-pair paternity is common in many socially monogamous passerine birds with biparental care. Thus, males often invest in offspring to which they are not related. Models of optimal parental investment predict that, under certain assumptions, males should lower their investment in response to reduced certainty of paternity. We attempted to reduce certainty of paternity experimentally in two species, the eastern bluebird, Sialia sialis, and the tree swallow, Tachycineta bicolor, by temporarily removing fertile females on two mornings during egg laying. In both species, experimental males usually attempted to copulate with the female immediately after her reappearance, suggesting that they experienced the absence of their mate as a threat to their paternity. Experimental males copulated at a significantly higher rate than control males. However, contrary to the prediction of the model, experimental males did not invest less than control males in their offspring. There was no difference between experimental and control nests in the proportion of male feeds, male and female feeding rates, nestling growth and nestling condition and size at age 14 days. We argue that females might have restored the males' confidence in paternity after the experiment by soliciting or accepting copulations. Alternatively, males may not reduce their effort, because the fitness costs to their own offspring may outweigh the benefits for the males, at least in populations where females cannot fully compensate for reduced male investment. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1994

Boron neutron capture therapy: a mechanism for achieving a concomitant tumor boost in fast neutron radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: For many years neutron radiation has been used to treat malignant disease both as fast neutron radiotherapy and as thermal neutron induced boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT). To date, these two approaches have been used independently of one another due to the large difference in neutron energies each employs. In this paper we discuss the potential application of BNCT to enhance the therapeutic effectiveness of a fast neutron radiotherapy beam. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Measurements are presented for the thermal neutron component that is spontaneously developed as the University of Washington fast neutron radiotherapy beam penetrates a water phantom. The biological effect of this thermalized component on cells "tagged" with boron-10 (10B) is modeled mathematically and the expected change in cell survival calculated. The model is then extended to estimate the effect this enhanced cell killing would have for increased tumor control. RESULTS: The basic predictions of the model on changes in cell survival are verified with in vitro measurements using the V-79 cell line. An additional factor of 10-100 in tumor cell killing appears achievable with currently available 10B carriers using our present neutron beam. A Poisson model is then used to estimate the change in tumor control this enhanced cell killing would produce in various clinical situations and the effect is sufficiently large so as to be clinically relevant. It is also demonstrated that the magnitude of the thermalized component can be increased by a factor of 2-3 with relatively simple changes in the beam generating conditions. CONCLUSION: BNCT may provide a means of enhancing the therapeutic effectiveness of fast neutron radiotherapy in a wide variety of clinical situations and is an area of research that should be aggressively pursued.

Boron Neutron Capture Therapy↗

PubMed2006

What is healthy work for women and men? - A case-control study of gender- and sector-specific effects of psycho-social working conditions on long-term sickness absence.

The aim of the study was to investigate the relevance of the demand-control model and social support in predicting long-term sickness absence (LTSA). Identifying gender- and sector- (private vs. public) specific patterns was in focus. The study uses a cross-sectional design with a case and a control group. The cases are a sample of 2 327 long-term sick listed (>60 days) and the controls are a Swedish population-based sample of 2 063. Data on sickness absence were retrieved from the Swedish national social insurance registers. Data on health, working and living conditions were gathered through a self-administered questionnaire. The results show that employed women have a notably higher risk for LTSA than employed men. High-strain jobs increase the odds for LTSA among both women and men. Active jobs were also associated with LTSA among women. The study confirms the demand-control model (job strain hypothesis) and social support and their associations with LTSA. However, the job strain hypothesis is more evident in the private sector. Active jobs with high psychological demands and high decision latitude seem to be problematic for many women, especially in the private sector. Thus, the active learning hypothesis receives no support for women in the Swedish working population in general.

Absenteeism↗

PubMed2001

Predicting the voluntary arm forces in FES-assisted standing up using neural networks.

For individuals with paraplegia, standing up requires activation of paralyzed leg muscles by an artificial functional electrical stimulation (FES) controller and voluntary control of arm forces by the individual. Any knowledge of such voluntary control, particularly its prediction, could be used to design more effective FES controllers. Therefore, artificial neural network models were developed to predict voluntary arm forces from measured angular positions of the ankle, knee, and hip joints during FES-assisted standing up in paraplegia. The training data were collected from eight paraplegic subjects in repeated standing-up trials, and divided into two categories for training and validation. The predictions of the models closely followed both the training and validation data, showing good accuracy and generalization. The comparison of the models showed that, although there are striking similarities among the voluntary controls adopted by different subjects, each subject develops his/her own 'personal strategy' to control the arm forces, which is consistent from trial to trial. The level of consistency was dependent on the experience in using FES, injury level, body weight, and other subject-specific parameters.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Herd immunity to helminth infection and implications for parasite control.

Despite much research on immunological responses to helminth parasites, knowledge of the dynamic interplay between levels of herd immunity in humans and the rates of exposure, establishment and mortality of parasites remains limited. We describe here a simple mathematical model for the population dynamics of helminth infections which mirrors the development of a degree of acquired immunity within populations which are genetically heterogeneous with respect to immunological responsiveness. We interpret observed patterns in the age-specific intensity of infection and attempt to understand the possible effects of control measures based on chemotherapy and vaccination. Mass chemotherapy can, in some circumstances, reduce the level of herd immunity such that average worm burdens in the adult age classes rise above their precontrol levels. When certain individuals or groups are predisposed to heavy infection, selective or targeted drug treatment can have significantly greater impact than mass or random application. Conversely, model predictions suggest that effective parasite control by vaccination (if and when vaccines become available) is difficult to achieve in communities that are genetically heterogeneous in their ability to mount protective responses to infection.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2000

A functional model system of an hypoxic nerve injury and its evaluation.

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: Develop an hypoxic peripheral nerve injury model with a controlled injury type and two types of clinically relevant physiological measurements of function during and after recovery. The model, controlling for injury and measurement variables, would have predictable outcomes in function. The functional model could test potential therapeutic interventions with greater sensitivity. STUDY DESIGN: Twenty-one rats were used in preliminary studies evaluating peroneal nerve injury types and functional model evaluation. Forty-eight rats were used in a controlled and blinded evaluation of the injury model followed by treatment with hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) as a potential therapeutic intervention and evaluated with functional models. METHODS: Preliminary studies compared nerve injuries: epineurectomy, epineurectomy with crush and transection with autograft for rate of return of function and final extent of return of function. The gait analysis model was also evaluated and modified to decrease variability. The final study evaluated peroneal epineurectomy and nerve crush injury with serial gait analysis during recovery, final elicited maximum force measurements, and histological analysis. Half of the animals were treated with HBO during recovery (ANOVA or regression statistical analysis were used to determine group differences.). RESULTS: Preliminary studies suggested that the peroneal nerve injury model of an epineurectomy with crush of specified length and a modification of the gait analysis model would yield a useful and predictable injury outcome. The final study resulted in predicted and consistent injury outcomes. In the HBO treatment group, a 12% improvement in function 5 days after HBO treatment was demonstrated (P < .03), but no long-term or histological benefit was seen. CONCLUSION: A reliable hypoxic nerve injury model has been developed and tested utilizing two functional methods as the primary outcome variables.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Space-time interaction as an indicator of local spread during the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK.

During the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK, decisions on the level of implementation of control measures were supported by predictive models. Models were mainly used as macro-level tools to predict the behaviour of the disease in the whole country rather than at the local level. Here we explore the use of the magnitude and characteristics of the space-time interaction as an indicator of local spread and, indirectly, of the effectiveness of control measures aimed at reducing short-range transmission during the course of a major livestock disease epidemic. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns are described in the four main clusters that were observed during the outbreak by means of the hazard rate and space-time K-function (K(s,t)). For each local outbreak, the relative measure D(0)(s,t), derived from K(s,t), which represents the excess risk attributable to the space-time interaction was calculated for consecutive 20-day temporal windows to represent the dynamics of the space-time interaction. The dynamics of the spatiotemporal interaction were very different among the four local clusters, suggesting that the intensity of local spread, and therefore the effectiveness of control measures, markedly differed between local outbreaks. The large heterogeneity observed in the relative impact of being close in time and space to an infected premises suggests that the decision making in relation to control of the outbreak would have benefited from indicators of local spread which could be used to complement global predictive modelling results. Despite its limitations, our results suggest that the real-time analysis of the space-time interaction can be a valuable decision support tool during the course of a livestock disease epidemic.

Animals↗