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Physicians resources in Lithuania: change comes slowly.

AIM: To analyze the structure of the physician workforce in Lithuania at the time when the country gained independence, changes it has undergone since 1990, and physician resource planning activities. METHODS: National and international databases were examined to determine the changes in the structure of physician workforce after 1990. Studies and reports, funded by international and national governmental organizations, were reviewed to examine the recommendations for physician resource planning and the rate of their acceptance. Since there was no government plan, a study using Delphi technique was conducted to find consensus among practitioners and policy makers on the physician-to-population ratio needed in Lithuania. Medical residents and physicians in Lithuania were surveyed to assess their emigration intentions. RESULTS: In comparison with other Baltic countries, the number of physicians in Lithuania has remained high despite dramatic reductions in the number of students enrolled to medical schools. There is still a maldistribution of physician resources geographically and by specialty. The government has accepted few recommendations based on the international studies. None of the internal databases provided all the needed information on the physician workforce and the existing databases could not be linked to gain access to all required information. CONCLUSIONS: The physician-to-population ratio remained high after Lithuania had gained independence. There has been little planning at the government level to determine the number of physicians needed in a reformed health system. Changes in the number of students admitted to medical schools did not follow from a well thought-out long-term plan for physician workforce the country will need in the future. To develop a frequently updated database of physicians is essential for the successful planning of future physician workforce.

Databases as Topic↗

A survey of pediatric oncology nurses' perceptions of parent educational needs.

Educating parents of children with cancer is a primary nursing responsibility in pediatric oncology. A survey using Delphi techniques was conducted with nurses attending a Children's Oncology Group Nursing Workshop to identify priority educational topics from pediatric oncology nurses' perspective. In round 1 of the survey, nurses were asked to identify 5 priority educational topics and 5 topics they spend the most time teaching parents. Twenty-four educational categories were identified by 199 nurses, and responses were sorted by category and frequencies tabulated. Information about treatment was the most frequently cited priority. Bone marrow suppression (BMS) was the second most important priority and was the topic nurses spent most time in teaching. Round 2 of the survey was sent via e-mail to 132 consenting participants from round 1. Nurses were asked to rate the importance of the categories from round 1 (presented in random order) during 4 time periods (diagnosis, initial treatment, maintenance, and off therapy). Nurses reported different teaching priorities across the continuum of treatment. Of note, teaching about end-of-life issues and alternative therapy were ranked as low in importance across all time points. These findings can be used to inform educational programs and materials development for parents of children with cancer.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

The rational use of albumin in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. A Delphi study for the attainment of a consensus on prescribing standards.

BACKGROUND: Ascites is one of the most frequent severe complications in patients with liver cirrhosis. The treatment of this chronic disease usually requires the prolonged use of albumin, frequently continued even after patients' discharge from the hospital. AIMS: Aim of the study was to define a consensus among Italian physicians with regard to the use of albumin in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites. METHODS: The study adopted the Delphi technique to conduct the consensus activities. All controversial issues related to the use of albumin were identified by the experts' board and proposed to the 68 participating hepatology centres through two subsequent questionnaires. The questionnaires, returned by the specialists involved, were collected and the answers classified to verify the elements on which a consensus was reached. RESULTS: The home use of albumin can help to improve the patient's general conditions and well-being. About 77% of the experts involved considered likely that albumin administration could shorten hospital stays or could reduce the number of hospital admissions. The results of the study, along with a socioeconomic analysis, were presented to the Italian Drug Commission, which subsequently removed the specific hypoalbuminemia level as a prerequisite for having the drug reimbursed by the National Health Service. CONCLUSIONS: For an outpatient prescription, the hypoalbuminemia limit of 2.5 g/dl or less is not sufficient, while the decision whether to administer the drug requires the evaluation of patient's overall clinical conditions as an essential criterion for the prescription of a home treatment with albumin.

Albumins↗

Impact of hepatitis C on health related quality of life: a systematic review and quantitative assessment.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diminishes health related quality of life (HRQOL), and it is now common to measure HRQOL in clinical trials. We sought to summarize the HRQOL data in HCV, and to establish the minimally clinically important difference (MCID) in HRQOL scores in HCV. We performed a systematic review to identify relevant studies, and converted HRQOL data from each study into clinically interpretable statistics. An expert panel used a modified Delphi technique to estimate the MCID in HCV. We found that patients with HCV scored lower than controls across all scales of the SF-36. Patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR) scored higher across all scales versus patients without SVR, especially in the physical health domains. HRQOL differences did not correspond with differences in liver histology or ALT levels. Based upon the published data, the expert panel concluded that the SF-36 vitality scale was most relevant in patients with HCV, and generated a mean MCID of 4.2 points on this scale. In conclusion, patients with HCV have a clinically significant decrement in HRQOL versus controls, and physical HRQOL improves in patients achieving SVR but not in those without SVR. The data further suggest that traditional outcomes fail to capture the full spectrum of illness related to chronic HCV. A difference of 4.2 points on the SF-36 vitality scale can be used as an estimate of the MCID in HCV, and this value may be used as the basis for power calculations in clinical trials evaluating HRQOL. Supplementary material for this article can be found on the HEPATOLOGY website (http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-9139/suppmat/index.html).

Case-Control Studies↗

[Factors that affect the prescription of benzodiazepines and actions to improve their use: a Delphi study of primary care doctors].

OBJECTIVES: To identify the factors that affect the prescription of benzodiazepines and similar drugs and the actions that can be taken to reduce their prescription.Design. Consensus method. Delphi technique. SETTING: Four primary care areas in Asturias. Participants. 39 doctors from primary care teams agreed voluntarily to take part in the study, and 32 completed the study. They belonged to 20 health centres. METHOD: They were sent by mail three questionnaires one after the other. The second and third questionnaires were worked out on the basis of the analysis of the information from the replies to the preceding questionnaire. Those who did not send in a reply were reminded by phone. RESULTS: The 5 most influential factors in benzodiazepine prescription were agreed: reduction in the threshold of tolerance of emotional discomfort; increase of the prevalence of pathologies; lack of time in the consulting-room; social and economic conditioning factors; properties of the benzodiazepine family. The 5 most important actions that could reduce prescription of these drugs were agreed: general health education; reduction in case loads; making doctors more conscious of prescribing correctly; strengthening the social support network; doctors fomenting use of effective alternative treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The prescription of benzodiazepines and their analogues is a multi-factorial action with social and psychological roots. The action most voted on to reduce their prescription was general health education.

Adult↗

Cost-effectiveness in Italy of preventive treatment with ramipril in patients at high risk of cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted in Italy of preventive treatment with ramipril (an angiotensin converting enzyme [ACE] inhibitor) compared to no treatment in patients at high risk of cardiovascular death. The analysis was based on data extracted from the HOPE trial. METHODS: The current life table method was used in order to model a lifetime time horizon for outcomes and costs. The cohorts used were 1000 subjects on ramipril, and 1000 subjects on placebo enrolled in the HOPE trial. Kaplan-Meier curves at 5 years of the clinical study were fitted using an exponential model over a lifetime horizon, the outcome variables being myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization and death. Total direct medical costs have been considered from a third-party payer's perspective--the Italian National Health Service. Resources involved in each event/activity were estimated using the modified Delphi technique with a panel of six clinicians. Types of resources reported included drug therapies, laboratory and imaging tests, physician visits, outpatient and inpatient rehabilitation, as well as medical and surgical hospital admissions. The incremental cost per life year gained was the main measure of the analysis. RESULTS: ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) decreases with the length of the treatment period. After the first year the ICER is 55,062 euros and subsequently decreases to about 12,770 euros at 5 years, 5945 euros at 10 years and 3726 euros at 20 years. The two ways sensitivity analysis showed that at 5 years ICERs range from a saving of 4059 euros to a cost of 22,929 euros (at 20 years they are 1814 euros and 4434 euros), mainly depending on the cost of drug and cost of events. Previous analyses in other countries based on the HOPE study obtained ICER values which are comparable with our results, when taking into account the different cost structure of the health care systems. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of these results, the use of ramipril is likely to represent an efficient use of public health expenditure in the Italian healthcare system.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors↗

Agricultural health nurses. Job analysis of functions and competencies.

Agricultural health nurses address the health and safety issues of farmers, agricultural workers, and farm families. This nurse role incorporates both public health and occupational health nurse specialty practice. The purpose of this study was to describe agricultural health nurse job functions and competencies used in providing services to agricultural populations. A two round modified Delphi technique was used to attain a consensus among participants related to agricultural health nurse functions and competencies. In Round I, a mailed survey assessing demographic characteristics, and job functions and competencies was sent to an identified list of 61 nurses. A second mailed survey, with categorized job function and competency responses elicited through Round I, was sent to the 32 Round I respondents to assess the importance of the job functions and competencies and the frequency of performing each job function. Twenty four Round II surveys were returned. Job functions rated highest were: Serve as a liaison for the agricultural, health and medical, and nonfarm communities. Promote agricultural health and safety issues through the media. Implement educational courses for various groups. Conduct follow up assessment of injury, illness, or disease occurring as a result of an agricultural exposure. Function as a resource for information to victims of agricultural injury and illness and their families. The competencies of greatest importance were interpersonal communication skills, knowledge of injury prevention principles and measures, ability to recognize potential hazards within the work and home environment, and demonstrate a strong sense of self. This study adds to the body of knowledge needed to define the agricultural health nurse role.

Agricultural Workers' Diseases↗

Desirable attributes of the ambulance technician, paramedic, and clinical supervisor: findings from a Delphi study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify those attributes experts regard as desirable qualities in the ambulance technician, paramedic, and clinical supervisor. METHODS: The Delphi technique was used to gain a consensus view from a panel of experts. The first round of the study asked the experts to list the attributes they believed were desirable for the ambulance technician, the ambulance paramedic, and the clinical supervisor. The first round of the study generated 3403 individual statements that were collapsed into 25 broad categories, which were returned to the experts, who were required to rate each of the attributes along a visual analogue scale in respect of each of the identified occupational groups. RESULTS: On completion of the second round the data were analysed to demonstrate rank ordering of desirable attributes by occupational group. The level of agreement within each group was determined by analysis using the Kendall coefficient of concordance. This showed high levels of agreement within the technician group but less agreement within the paramedic and clinical supervisor group. All were highly significant p<0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: There was significant agreement among the experts as to the desirable attributes of ambulance staff, many of which do not feature in existing ambulance training curriculums. The findings of this study may therefore be of value in informing future curriculum development and in providing guidance for the selection of staff for each of the occupational groups.

Ambulances↗

Development of syndrome severity scores for pediatric epilepsy.

PURPOSE: A severity rating for each of the pediatric epilepsy syndromes can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of seizure condition severity. We describe the development of the Epilepsy Syndrome Severity Scores-Child (ESSS-C). METHODS: The Delphi Technique was used to establish severity scores for pediatric epileptic syndromes as defined by the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). Pediatric neurologists with expertise in epilepsy were asked to rate the severity of each syndrome on a scale of 1 to 10, considering: (a) response to medical treatment, (b) seizure severity, and (c) long-term prognosis. Syndrome severity ratings took place in four different rounds. Experts provided initial scores in rounds 1 and 2. RESULTS: Of the 18 experts who agreed to participate in the development of the scale, 12 completed all four rounds. The median served as the syndrome severity score if the mean and median agreed within 0.5. Otherwise, whichever of these two numbers was closest to the mode was selected. Syndromes that were rated with high severity scores (9 or 10) or low severity scores (1 or 2) had unanimous or near unanimous ratings. The syndromes with scores in the middle range (4 to 8) had a wider range of ratings. CONCLUSIONS: If further studies provide empirical support for the validity of these epileptic syndrome severity scores, then the ESSS-C has potential for use both clinically and in future research in the prediction of outcomes of treatments.

Age Factors↗

A comparison of clinically important differences in health-related quality of life for patients with chronic lung disease, asthma, or heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: On the eight scales of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36-Item Health Survey (SF-36), Version 2, we compared the clinically important difference (CID) thresholds for change over time developed by three separate expert panels of physicians with experience in quality of life assessment among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and heart disease. STUDY DESIGN: We used a modified Delphi technique combined with a face-to-face panel meeting within each disease to organize and conduct the consensus process among the expert panelists, who were familiar with the assessment and evaluations of health-related quality of life (HRQL) measures among patients with the panel-specific disease. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Each of the expert panels first determined the magnitude of the smallest numerically possible change on each SF-36 scale, referred to as a state change, and then built their CIDs from this metric. All three panels attained consensus on the scale changes that constituted small, moderate, and large clinically important SF-36 change scores. The CIDs established by the heart disease panel were generally greater than the CIDs agreed on by the asthma and COPD panels. CONCLUSIONS: These panel-derived thresholds reflect possible differences in disease management among the represented panel-specific diseases, and are all greater than the minimal CID thresholds previously developed for the SF-36 scales among patients with arthritis. If confirmed among patients with the relevant diseases and those patients' physicians, these disease-specific CIDs could assist both researchers and practicing clinicians in the use and interpretation of HRQL changes over time.

Asthma↗

Research priorities in vascular nursing.

This study was initiated by the Society for Vascular Nursing (SVN) Research Committee for the purpose of establishing priorities in vascular nursing research. With a three-round Delphi technique for this study, 176 SVN members were asked the question: What are the most significant problems or questions affecting the welfare of patients with vascular disease that can be solved or answered through nursing research? In round I, experts in vascular nursing (n = 43) identified 182 items that were edited by the investigators into 135 researchable questions and 15 categories. In round II, the expert panel (n = 35) rated each item on a 1 to 7-point scale regarding impact on patient welfare. For round III, panelists (n = 34) were asked to rerate each item, taking into consideration their individual and group mean on each item. Participants who responded to all three rounds were generally experienced advanced practice vascular nurses. The number one research priority identified by this panel was the following: What are the most important barriers to compliance with treatment regimens (diet, cessation of smoking, etc) in the patient with vascular disease? Other top research priorities were concerned with nursing standards, patient education, risk factor modification, pain management, decreasing length of stay, nursing education, stress and anxiety in the preoperative period, and providing care at less expense. The research priorities identified by this study are intended to provide direction for the SVN and its members in their efforts to foster future research in vascular nursing.

Delphi Technique↗

A checklist for assessing the risk of falls among the elderly.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of falls among elderly citizens by using a checklist. This checklist was initially developed using the Delphi technique, then refined on the basis of research findings. Cross-sectional design and a purposive sample were used, with the sample selected from three sheltered housing projects (n = 302) and from Win-san district (n = 103) in Taipei, comprising 405 participants. On the basis of their experiences of falling in the previous year, participants were classified into two groups: fall (n = 202) and non-fall (n = 203). Participants in the fall group had lower scores on an SPMSQ (Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire), took longer to complete the Get-up and Go test and were more afraid of falling. Participants who took longer than one second to complete the Get-up and Go test or had urinary frequency or incontinence problems were found to be at greater risks for falls. The elderly who lived in homes with dimly lit kitchens and clutters at entryways (or backyards) were found to be at a considerably greater risk, by 22 or 13 times respectively. This checklist can be used by care providers to identify those providing care to the elderly, those at high risk of falls, and to prevent such falls or, at least lessen the risks of falls.

Accidental Falls↗

Pediatric injury prevention counseling priorities.

OBJECTIVE: Child health care providers have a unique opportunity to conduct injury prevention counseling but limited empirical evidence for choosing prevention strategies. Efficient use of time requires that prevention strategies of higher priority be discussed before lower priority strategies. Our aim was to assess consensus among experts about the prioritization of prevention strategies for office based injury prevention counseling for parents of children under age two. DESIGN: We used a modified Delphi technique with 23 childhood injury prevention experts nationwide. Participants were blinded to the identities of each other. MEASURES: The first questionnaire, distributed via facsimile transmission, consisted of open ended questions about prevention strategies participants believe should be included and their prioritization methods. The second questionnaire was closed ended and based on the results of the first. RESULTS: Seventeen injury problems and 21 prevention strategies were suggested for counseling. Participants emphasized environmental strategies over more active, educational ones. Motor vehicle occupant injuries and car seats were given high priority scores by all participants. Smoke detectors, lowering the hot water heater temperature, and pool fencing also received high priority ratings. Participants based their decisions on the severity of the injury, the frequency with which the injury occured, and the availability of environmental strategies. However, they disagreed about the relative importance of these factors. Time constraints and parents' inability to absorb information led them to suggest limiting, to fewer than four, the number of prevention strategies addressed at any one visit. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates areas of consensus as well as unresolved dilemmas about pediatric injury prevention counseling. A rational decision making approach to prioritizing elements of clinical counseling is needed. Meanwhile, clinicians can use the findings of this study to derive their own judgments.

Accident Prevention↗

[Inter-professional relationship between primary health care (PHC) and secondary care (hospital) in 1992 and 2000. A Delphi study].

AIM: To evaluate the trends in the inter-professional relationship between primary health care (PHC) and secondary care (hospital) at 2 different moments of the health reform, at its start in 1992 and after a phase of consolidation (2001). DESIGN: Observational study based on modified Delphi technique. SETTING: Valencia Community, Spain. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and ninety six professionals from Valencia Community were selected (103 PH centre administrators, 43 hospital and PC medical directors, and 50 heads of internal medicine or emergency services). RESULTS: One hundred and ninety six questionnaires were sent out, with a response rate of 38%. In PHC problems remained the same, but the following got worse: "lack of motivation" (+1.34), "lack of overall vision of patients" (+1.10), and "overuse of medical services" (+1.06). The existence of non-integrated out-patient specialists got better (-1.32). In hospitals, "lack of overall vision of patients" got worse (+0.51), but in general problems got better, especially in "lack of communication and dialogue" (-1.14). PC increased its demand for "a single computerized clinical record" (+1.50), drawing up of common protocols (+0.86), and periodic rotations of PC doctors through hospitals (+0.85), but bureaucratic referrals to PC (-0.60) and the need for specialists in PC as consultants (-0.36) diminished. In hospitals all solutions showed lower scores, particularly access of PC doctors to monitoring of admitted patients (-2.44) and PC doctors doing hospital cover (-2.30). CONCLUSIONS: Problems and solutions from PHC and hospitals remain the same, but there is a trend to the worse in PHC, whereas in hospitals the trend is more positive.

Delphi Technique↗

The appropriateness of carotid endarterectomy.

Carotid endarterectomy is a commonly performed but controversial procedure. We developed from the literature a list of 864 possible reasons for performing carotid endarterectomy, and asked a panel of nationally known experts to rate the appropriateness of each indication using a modified Delphi technique. On the basis of the panel's ratings, we determined the appropriateness of carotid endarterectomy in a random sample of 1302 Medicare patients in three geographic areas who had had the procedure in 1981. Thirty-five percent of the patients in our sample had carotid endarterectomy for appropriate reasons, 32 percent for equivocal reasons, and 32 percent for inappropriate reasons. Of the patients having inappropriate surgery, 48 percent had less than 50 percent stenosis of the carotid artery that was operated on. Fifty-four percent of all the procedures were performed in patients without transient ischemic attacks in the carotid distribution. Of these procedures, 18 percent were judged appropriate, as compared with 55 percent judged appropriate in patients with transient ischemic attacks in the carotid distribution. After carotid endarterectomy, 9.8 percent of patients had a major complication (stroke with residual deficit at the time of hospital discharge or death within 30 days of surgery). We conclude that carotid endarterectomy was substantially overused in the three geographic areas we studied. Furthermore, in situations in which the complication rate is equal to or above the study's aggregate rate, carotid endarterectomy would not be warranted, even in cases with an appropriate indication, because the risks would almost certainly outweigh the benefits.

Aged↗

Construction and validation of a risk-screening questionnaire for the investigation of recurrent airway obstruction in epidemiological studies of horse populations in Great Britain.

Recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) is an environmental respiratory disease affecting horses. A risk-screening questionnaire (RSQ) for RAO would provide a useful tool to investigate the epidemiology of the disease in horses; our aim in this study was to construct and validate such an instrument. Guidance for what questions to include in the RSQ came from three processes: a review of the scientific literature, a survey of equine practitioners in the UK and a consultation with 19 experts using a modified Delphi technique. The latter consultation consisted of two rounds; agreement amongst the experts increased between the rounds. The quantitative outputs provided estimates of the probabilities of a horse having RAO for each particular piece of historical information or clinical sign. The RSQ for RAO was a short questionnaire for completion by horse owners regarding the horse, its health and its management. The likelihood of a horse having RAO (the RAO score) was calculated from a completed RSQ by combining the relevant estimated probabilities. The RSQ was validated against a reference standard of a veterinary diagnosis including respiratory cytology. This was achieved by inviting veterinary surgeons (residing in Great Britain who had taken part in the practitioner survey, and who had indicated that they used respiratory cytology in the diagnosis of respiratory cases) to participate. During 2003 and 2004 these veterinary surgeons returned RSQs for 40 cases that underwent investigation of the respiratory tract and 40 controls; 18 of the cases were given a final diagnosis of RAO. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to select a positive cut-off of 0.87 for the RSQ for RAO. This suggested that the RSQ had a sensitivity of 0.83 (95% confidence interval=0.59-0.96) and specificity of 0.85 (0.74-0.93) for the diagnosis of apparent RAO (compared to all other diagnoses).

Airway Obstruction↗

Cancer pain management in Lanarkshire: a community-based audit.

BACKGROUND: A prospective, longitudinal audit of pain management in patients with cancer was conducted in an unselected community population in Lanarkshire, Scotland. METHODS: Using a modified Delphi technique, a recording form was developed and a dedicated project manager was appointed to oversee the development and implementation of the audit. Community staff recorded pain level and analgesic prescribing on consecutive home visits to patients with cancer-related pain. Areas of good and poor prescribing were assessed using standards previously developed for the Scottish Cancer Pain Audit. These results were fed back to prescribers in a variety of ways and used as a focus for a programme of primary care-based education. RESULTS: Five hundred and forty-one patients have been entered in the audit between May 1999 and end October 2002. A total of 3259 visits have been recorded and 88% of general practices in Lanarkshire submitted forms during this period. Pain scores were recorded in 90% of visits. Specific gaps in prescribing practice were identified. CONCLUSION: The audit demonstrated that it is possible to engage primary care teams in a continuing audit of cancer pain management, which is achievable within the context of normal care. It provided a means to collect and analyse serial data on pain level and pain management and to identify areas of prescribing in need of improvement. Concerted efforts to establish the legitimacy and relevance of the project in the eyes of key stakeholders proved fundamental to encouraging longer-term behavioural change in the management of cancer pain.

Analgesics↗

1988 Delphi survey of nursing research priorities for New York State.

In order to inform decisions about nursing research and health care policy, the Council on Nursing Research of the New York State Nurses Association (NYSNA) conducted a Delphi survey to identify the priorities for nursing research in New York state. The Delphi technique is a method of eliciting judgements from experts for the purpose of short-term forecasting and planning. The survey was conducted by mail in three rounds during 1988. Round I required participants to identify three primary research priorities for the nursing profession. In Round II participants ranked the 37 most frequently identified categories from Round I. The highest 16 categories from Round II were ranked by participants in Round III to provide the final 10 nursing research priority categories for New York state. All members of the New York State Nurses Association holding a minimum of a master's degree in nursing were invited to participate. The response rates were: Round I, 34% (N = 872); Round II, 38% (N = 985); Round III 37% (N = 974). Of the 10 nursing research priority categories identified in the final round, 5 relate to nurses, 2 relate to nursing, and 3 relate to clients. None of the high-risk conditions or populations with whom nurses work appear in the top 10, and only 2 of these are ranked in the top 15 priority categories. These priority categories will be used by the NYSNA Council on Nursing Research to influence its future agenda and activities. They can be used by the nursing profession and others for planning, policy making, and establishing nursing research funding priorities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Delphi Technique↗