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Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

Actuarial Analysis

Epidemiological basis of tuberculosis eradication. 7. Application of life-table methods for assessing the prognosis for tuberculosis patients.

The experience of a group of patients, observed in a follow-up study, may conveniently be described by means of decrement tables, of which the survival table is the best known. Just as this table shows how a population group has decreased gradually because of death, so other decrement tables may depict the cumulative effect of cure, or of death and cure combined.Decrement tables can be established not only when all patients under study have been observed from the onset of their disease until cure or death, but also when patients with varying durations of disease have been followed for only a few years; in this case the statistical technique used for the construction of life-tables must be applied.This paper demonstrates in detail the tabulations and calculations involved in this technique, using nationwide data from the Danish Tuberculosis Register as the basis, and applying the technique to aspects of the prognosis for tuberculosis patients that have hitherto been difficult to quantify.

Denmark

[Comments on the use of the "life-table method" in orthopedics].

In the description of long term results, e.g. of joint replacements, survivorship analysis is used increasingly in orthopaedic surgery. The survivorship analysis is more useful to describe the frequency of failure rather than global statements in percentage. The relative probability of failure for fixed intervals is drawn from the number of controlled patients and the frequency of failure. The complementary probabilities of success are linked in their temporal sequence thus representing the probability of survival at a fixed endpoint. Necessary condition for the use of this procedure is the exact definition of moment and manner of failure. It is described how to establish survivorship tables.

Follow-Up Studies

Life-table methods for evaluating antiarrhythmic drug efficacy in patients with paroxysmal atrial tachycardia.

Spontaneous variability in the occurrence of paroxysmal arrhythmias has made it difficult to apply objective and quantitative methods to describe their clinical course. In this study of paroxysmal atrial tachycardia, the "tachycardia-free interval" was used as a quantitative measure of drug efficacy during treatment with oral verapamil. The tachycardia-free interval is the time a patient remains free from an episode of tachycardia after drug treatment is begun. We documented recurrent tachycardia by telephone transmission of the electrocardiogram. Improvement caused by increasing the drug dose (360 versus 480 mg/day) or by comparing verapamil with placebo treatment was demonstrated by upward shifts in the cumulative tachycardia-free interval curves. The tachycardia-free interval is an easily measured clinical variable that has substantial promise in the study of paroxysmal arrhythmias.

Actuarial Analysis

Analysis of survival data using the actuarial life table method.

A microcomputer program has been developed for an Apple II Plus microcomputer for the analysis of survival data. The program is fully interactive and can analyze complete survival and censored data. Input to the program may be in the form of frequency data or individual patient information. Standard errors of the cumulative survival function are also computed using Greenwood's formula. Incorrectly specified data can be modified immediately with little effort from the user.

Actuarial Analysis

Relapse in affective disorders: a reanalysis of the literature using life table methods.

Using survival methods the authors review and reanalyze nine published reports on relapse after recovery from depression. Despite wide disagreement over cross-sectional rates of relapse, the reanalysis reveals a common finding that the hazard of relapse declines steadily for the first three years after recovery. Methodological and design issues are discussed and summarized for the 40 naturalistic studies that report on longitudinal outcome after recovery from depression. The principles and techniques of survival methods are briefly introduced in an Appendix.

Actuarial Analysis

Life table methods for assessing the dynamics of U.S. nursing home utilization: 1976-1977.

One likely consequence of the aging of the U.S. population is the growth of the number of persons in nursing homes. As the numbers of persons in nursing homes increase so will the amount of resources required to keep them in those homes. This will make it increasingly important to understand the dynamics of nursing home utilization so that we can more effectively plan the allocation of resources. Unfortunately, we lack direct information on the dynamics of nursing home utilization both because of the expense of implementing longitudinal studies to gather such information and because the available data on current residents are inappropriate to study the dynamics of utilization because of several types of bias. Demographic methods are presented that can be applied to survey data to remove sample biases from the data and permit study of the dynamics of the utilization of facilities for the total U.S. nursing home population and for various of its components.

Actuarial Analysis

[Application of the life table method to the estimation of late complications of normal tissues after radiotherapy].

In order to evaluate the treatment results of radiotherapy it is important to estimate the degree of complications of the surrounding normal tissues as well as the frequency of tumor control. In this report, the cumulative incidence rate of the late radiation injuries of the normal tissues was calculated using the modified actuarial method (Cutler-Ederer's method) or Kaplan-Meier's method, which is usually applied to the calculation of the survival rate. By the use of this method of calculation, an accurate cumulative incidence rate over time can be easily obtained and applied to the statistical evaluation of the late radiation injuries.

Actuarial Analysis