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Pharmacodynamic system analysis of the biophase level predictor and the transduction function.

This work deals with the pharmacodynamic problem of relating a drug effect E(t) to an observable pharmacokinetic (PK) predictor variable r(t), which may be a venous and/or arterial drug level, some other PK variable, or a drug infusion scheme. It is proposed that the relationship between E(t) and r(t) may, in many cases, be appropriately modeled as E(t) = N(F(r(t))) [for practical analysis reasons, F(r(t)) is denoted the biophase level, cb(t), the operator F() is accordingly denoted the biophase level predictor (BLP), and N() is denoted the transduction function (TF)]. This work proposes a method for determining the two fundamental components, BLP and TF, that define the E(t)-r(t) relationship. The BLP is determined by a hysteresis minimization (HM) technique with the following features: (1) the method considers errors in both HM variables; (2) the method is suitable for dealing with the important case in which the predictor variable is a drug infusion scheme; (3) the approach is noncompartmental in contrast to the effect-compartment approaches and it does not require a specific structured modeling of the cb(t)-r(t) relationship when dealing with drugs with linear PKs in a general operational sense; and (4) the method makes use of a dimensionless transformation of the hysteresis variable that eliminates numerical scaling problems so that a complex penalty function optimization approach can be avoided. The TF is determined by a cross validation procedure in conjunction with the BLP determined by HM. The method is demonstrated using pharmacodynamic data for several drugs, considering both concentration-based and drug input-based r(t) values. The significance of the information obtained from the determined BLP and TF is discussed, including the concepts of equilibration dynamics and overloading. The limitations and potential problems of the methodology are discussed.

Alfentanil

Clinical predictors of relapse following neuroleptic withdrawal.

The validity of previously hypothesized predictors of elapse following neuroleptic discontinuation was examined. One hundred sixty-two outpatients, with either Research Diagnostic Criteria schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, were discontinued from neuroleptic medication for a 28-day period or until judged to be relapsed. Pre-discontinuation neuroleptic dosage level, the severity of psychotic symptoms, and the presence of dyskinetic movements prior to neuroleptic discontinuation were the predictor variables. Of the 162 patients, 62.7% did not relapse during the study period. There were no differences in the survival rates between the patients withdrawn from oral versus depot neuroleptics. Neuroleptic dosage, but not severity of psychotic symptoms or dyskinetic movements, predicted relapse. These results support the hypothesis that pre-withdrawal neuroleptic dosage level predicts relapse, but fail to validate either severity of psychotic symptoms or presence of dyskinetic movements as predictors of relapse.

Administration, Oral

Decision-making in clinical practice: application of predictors, indicators and indices to the medical history obtained by a self-administered questionnaire.

A theoretical description of predictors, indicators, and health indices was presented in an earlier paper (Hall and Sebag, 1974). The application of predictors, indicators and health indices--including dynamic health indices--to anamnestic data obtained by a self-administered questionnaire is presented herein. Predictors and indicators showed a varying degree of 'decision-making significance' in the 122 questions examined. The health index distinguished between diagnosed individuals and those receiving no diagnosis(es). The dynamic health index was found to reflect changes in the health status of an individual over a period of time.

Decision Making

Noninvasive predictors of sudden cardiac death in men with coronary heart disease. Predictive value of maximal stress testing.

In a follow-up study of 1,852 men with coronary heart disease, 195 deaths occurred within the first 3 years (33 +/- 13 months [mean +/- standard deviation]). Analysis of these cases indicated that the risk of sudden cardiac death in ambulatory men with clinical manifestations of coronary heart disease may be readily estimated from noninvasive clinical and exercise criteria. The important predictors are indexes of the severity of coronary heart disease and impairment of peak left ventricular function demonstrated with symptom-limited maximal exercise. The advantages of these predictors are that they may be elicited on the initial study as well as on follow-up noninvasive examinations of ambulatory patients. The appearance of nonelectrocardiographic predictors in serial examinations may provide an indication for invasive studies and be a more important finding than the ischemic S-T reponse to exertion.

Adult

Sturdy childhood predictors of adult antisocial behaviour: replications from longitudinal studies.

Results are compared in studies of 4 male cohorts - 1 all white, 1 all black, and 2 racially representative of the population - growing up in different eras, followed past varying portions of their adult lives, living in different parts of the US. Despite sample differences and differences in sources of information and in the variables used to measure both childhood predictors and adult outcomes, some striking replications appear with respect to childhood predictors of adult antisocial behaviour. All types of antisocial behaviour in childhood predict a high level of antisocial behaviour in adulthood and each kind of adult antisocial behaviour is predicted by the number of childhood antisocial behaviours, indicating that adult and childhood antisocial behaviour both form syndromes and that these syndromes are closely interconnected. Also confirmed across studies are: (1) adult antisocial behaviour virtually requires childhood antisocial behaviour; (2) most antisocial children do not become antisocial adults; (3) the variety of antisocial behaviour in childhood is a better predictor of adult antisocial behaviour than is any particular behaviour; (4) adult antisocial behaviour is better predicted by childhood behaviour than by family background or social class of rearing; (5) social class makes little contribution to the prediction of serious adult antisocial behaviour.

Adolescent

Open-heart surgery: somatic predictors of postoperative psychopathology.

This study reports on some relationships between somatic conditions and postoperative psychopathological disturbances in 102 subjects from 20 to 65 years of age, undergoing open heart surgery. The overall incidence of postoperative psychiatric complications was 40%. Only two variables showed a significant correlation with the psychiatric criteria we used, independent of the different diagnoses: body weight and preoperative urea-N levels in serum. Some of the somatic predictors reported in the literature could be found to be specific for mitral or aortic valve disease. Predictors for psychiatric complications in patients with aortic valve replacement were: age, preoperative protein and urea-N levels in serum, and daytime sedation. The predictor in mitral valve replacement was the decrease in venous oxygenation (pulmonary artery) under physical strain.

Adult

[Some psychological predictors for psychosis after open heart surgery (author's transl)].

In a study of postoperative psychosis after open heart surgery three psychopathological syndromes were identified which had different psychological predictors. Predictors of postoperative emotional disturbances are family problems and the lack of plans for the future, whereas patients with postoperative disorientations seem to have difficulties in their jobs and therefore feel distressed preoperatively. Predictors of the paranoid syndrome after the operation are: a high degree of fear in awaiting the operation and little confidence in the doctors. The social surroundings of these patients are often unstable and although they have no precise plans for the future they object to start working again after operation.

Adaptation, Psychological

Depressive symptoms and other psychosocial factors as predictors of stroke in the elderly.

The aim of this paper is to assess the influence of selected psychosocial factors as predictors of stroke incidence in a probability sample of noninstitutionalized elderly. The main psychosocial factor of interest was depression. Marital status, social support, social networks, and religiousness were also assessed as potential antecedent or mediating factors. The data were obtained from a prospective longitudinal study based on 2,812 individuals aged 65 years and over living in New Haven, Connecticut. The incidence of stroke was monitored from the baseline interview in 1982 until December 1988. Depression, measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), was measured at baseline as were other predictor variables. Univariate Cox regression analyses revealed that higher CES-D scores were predictive of greater stroke incidence (p < 0.05). More frequent attendance at religious services was associated with lower incidence (p < 0.001). CES-D scores were also correlated with many measures of sociodemographic, health, and physical function factors in our multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). When combined with other significant predictor variables such as age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, physical function, and smoking, neither depression nor religious attendance retained its significance.

Aged

Negative dataset selection impacts machine learning-based predictors for multiple bacterial species promoters.

MOTIVATION: Advances in bacterial promoter predictors based on machine learning have greatly improved identification metrics. However, existing models overlooked the impact of negative datasets, previously identified in GC-content discrepancies between positive and negative datasets in single-species models. This study aims to investigate whether multiple-species models for promoter classification are inherently biased due to the selection criteria of negative datasets. We further explore whether the generation of synthetic random sequences (SRS) that mimic GC-content distribution of promoters can partly reduce this bias. RESULTS: Multiple-species predictors exhibited GC-content bias when using CDS as a negative dataset, suggested by specificity and sensibility metrics in a species-specific manner, and investigated by dimensionality reduction. We demonstrated a reduction in this bias by using the SRS dataset, with less detection of background noise in real genomic data. In both scenarios DNABERT showed the best metrics. These findings suggest that GC-balanced datasets can enhance the generalizability of promoter predictors across Bacteria. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The source code of the experiments is freely available at https://github.com/maigonzalezh/MultispeciesPromoterClassifier.

Machine Learning

Incidence and predictors of loss of pacing in the atrium in patients with sick sinus syndrome.

Atrial and dual-chamber pacemakers may be associated with reduced morbidity in patients with the sick sinus syndrome (SSS). In some patients, however, subsequent development of chronic atrial fibrillation or atrial lead failure make long-term pacing in the atrium not feasible. We analyzed the incidence and predictors of loss of atrial pacing in 395 consecutive patients with SSS (376 with dual-chamber pacemakers and 19 with single-chamber atrial pacemakers). None of them was in established atrial fibrillation at time of implant. Patients were followed-up for 55 +/- 35 months. Actuarial survival of effective atrial pacing was 92.5% at 1 year, 85% at 5 years, and 76.5% at 10 years. Overall, 60 patients lost atrial pacing. The most frequent cause was the development of chronic atrial fibrillation (53 patients). By multivariate analysis (Cox proportional-hazards model), independent predictors of loss of pacing in the atrium were preimplant episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) lasting more than 1 hour (P < 0.001; hazard ratio (HR) = 4.3); prior history of PAF for more than 5 years (P < 0.001; HR = 2.67; and endocardial P wave < 2 mV (P = 0.014; HR = 1.96). In a subgroup of patients (n = 187) who had echocardiograms, a left atrium > 50 mm was also an independent predictor of loss of atrial pacing (P = 0.028; HR = 2.28).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Actuarial Analysis

Multiple regression of predictors and criteria of dental school performance.

This study reports normative data for 370 students admitted to the UCLA School of Dentistry, data on commonly used performance predictors, and the regression equation best fitted for forecasting performance in this school. Most variance was associated with denatl school grade point average, National Board Dental Examination averages, and clinical performance. Best predictors were achievement level and trend in preadmission academic performance. The selection interview and high school preformance were also evaluated as predictor criteria.

Age Factors

Extent of resection as an independent predictor of survival for patients with glioblastoma as defined by the new WHO 2021 classification.

OBJECTIVE: Extent of resection (EOR) has previously been demonstrated to have an impact on survival in patients with glioblastoma (GBM). However, with the World Health Organization (WHO) 2021 reclassification of GBMs based on IDH-mutation status, patients with "IDH-mutant GBMs," who typically survive long term, were reclassified as WHO grade 4 IDH-mutant astrocytomas and removed from the GBM taxonomy. Therefore, it is unknown whether the previously reported impact of resection on survival was a false-positive result due to the inclusion of the less aggressive IDH-mutant tumors in previous datasets. This study aimed to determine the extent to which EOR remains an independent predictor of survival in patients with WHO 2021 GBM after the reclassification of IDH-mutant grade 4 astrocytomas. METHODS: All cases of GBM tumors (based on the pre-2021 GBM classification) that were newly diagnosed between 2005 and 2021 were identified in our institutional database and subsequently reclassified based on the updated WHO 2021 criteria using IDH status. Multivariable statistical analyses of demographic information, survival time, and EOR based on volumetric MRI were performed to determine the independent predictors of survival for the whole group of patients and for IDH-wildtype GBM patients exclusively. Additional analyses were performed to identify an EOR threshold for improvement in survival. RESULTS: Of the 523 tumors classified as GBM based on the pre-2021 taxonomy, 52 (9.9%) cases were reclassified as WHO grade 4 IDH-mutant astrocytomas, and the median survival of patients in this group was 7.9 years, whereas median survival of the IDH-wildtype GBM patients was 1.4 years. Multivariate analyses of the whole group demonstrated that IDH-mutant astrocytomas were associated with reduced hazard of death. In both the whole group (n = 523) and in IDH-wildtype GBMs (n = 471), higher EOR of the contrast-enhancing (CE) tumor was associated with reduced hazard of death, whereas older age or male sex was associated with increased hazard of death. Because most patients (90%) had high EOR values (> 81%), a statistically meaningful EOR threshold could not be established. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses demonstrated that EOR of the CE tumor is an independent predictor of survival and that greater EOR is associated with improved survival in WHO 2021 IDH-wildtype GBMs even after excluding grade 4 IDH-mutant astrocytomas. However, an absolute EOR threshold below which resection did not improve survival could not be established, raising concerns about prior cutoff assessments.

Humans

Relationship between work environment and anamnestic health status. Use of predictors, indicators and indices for the evaluation of medical and environmental factors.

Experience with computerized medical record systems in handling medical data in hospital and health screening environments has led to the development of a new approach to the evaluation of medical data. Predictors and indicators quantify the "information value" of medical data and can, theoretically, do so for all types of data. This paper describes the methodology and presents the results obtained when the technique was applied to the anamnestic data of the medical history and environmental data about the conditions in the work environment. Over 4,000 individuals who underwent multiphasic health screening were used as a data base for this study. From these 4,000 persons 3,164 were used for the calculation of anamnestic predictors and indicators and 1,013 for the environmental predictors and indicators. Anamnestic environmental indices were calculated upon 77 test individuals so as to correlate the association and dependence of the two indices.

Environmental Exposure

Predictors of family functioning one year following traumatic brain injury in children.

This study examined changes in family functioning and predictors of family outcome during the year following traumatic brain injury (TBI). The families of 94 children with TBI (mild = 50, moderate = 25, severe = 19), ages six to 15, were consecutively enrolled from two regional medical centers. Family interview ratings and standard measures of family and child functioning were completed three weeks after injury (measuring preinjury status), as well as three and 12 months. Two-thirds of families had moderate to good preinjury global functioning and coping resources, but more than half exhibited high levels of stress and at-risk family relationships. No significant preinjury differences by injury severity were seen on any measure. Whereas few changes in family functioning were observed over the year in the mild or moderate groups, greater deterioration occurred in the severe group. From one third to one half noted moderate to severe strain in 13 problem areas often seen in individuals with TBI. Preinjury family global functioning, however, was more strongly predictive of 12-month family functioning (R2 = .38 to .68) than was injury severity (R2 = .05 to .09). In four out of five outcome areas assessed at 12 months, preinjury status in each area was the strongest single predictor. Preinjury coping was the best predictor of stress. Families at risk can be identified and need ongoing support for optimal functioning.

Adaptation, Psychological

Pediatric submersions: prehospital predictors of outcome.

This retrospective cohort study was conducted to test prehospital prognostic indicators in pediatric submersion victims. The authors studied all less than 20 years old victims submerged in the non-icy waters of King County, WA who were treated by Seattle or King County Emergency Medical Services between 1985 and 1989 and were hospitalized or died. Seventy-seven victims were identified from emergency medical services incident logs, hospital discharge records, and medical examiner's registries. Outcome predictors were correlated with the victim's condition at hospital discharge. Of 29 victims in cardiac arrest, 13 had return of spontaneous circulation following field resuscitation. Of these, 6 (21%) survived, with mild (n = 2) and severe (n = 4) neurologic impairment at hospital discharge. The best outcome predictors were obtained in the field. These were, for death or severe neurologic impairment, submersion durations > 10 minutes (6/6) and resuscitation durations > 25 minutes (17/17), and for good outcome, sinus rhythm (37/37), reactive pupils (43/43), and neurologic responsiveness (40/40) at the scene. Field-determined factors were reproducibly good outcome predictors. Aggressive emergency medical services may save the lives of pediatric victims in cardiac arrest following short submersion durations. The data support pronouncing dead in the field those pediatric victims of non-icy submersions who do not respond to advanced life support within 25 minutes.

Adolescent

Predictors of Treatment Failure in Children With HIV Starting First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in the ODYSSEY Trial.

BACKGROUND: Data on predictors of treatment failure in children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, particularly on dolutegravir-based regimens (DTG). METHODS: ODYSSEY demonstrated superior efficacy of DTG versus standard-of-care (SOC). We assessed predictors at ART initiation of treatment failure by 96 weeks. RESULTS: Three hundred and eighty-one children started first-line ART (82% African). At ART-initiation, median age was 10.5 years (IQR: 6.5, 14.0, 67 < 3 years), CD4% 20% (IQR: 12, 28), BMI-for-age Z-score -.58 (IQR:-1.48, +.25). One hundred and eighty-nine children started DTG, 192 started SOC (91% &#x2265;3 years started efavirenz; 79% <3 years started lopinavir). Seventy-five children experienced treatment failure (24 DTG, 51 SOC). Failure risk was lower on DTG than SOC (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.29-0.77, P = .002). Lower BMI-for-age Z-score (HR = 0.82 for each unit gain, 95% CI: 0.70-0.96, P = .01) and being at an African site (HR = 2.09, 95% CI: 0.82-5.31, P = .09) were associated with higher failure risk. Risk was also higher at younger ages with the steepest increase in the youngest children and increased at lower CD4%, with a stronger CD4% effect at younger ages. At CD4% = 20, HRs relative to age 10 years were 2.40 (95% CI: 1.58-3.65) at age 1 year, 1.30 (95% CI: 1.15-1.48) at age 5 years, and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72-0.89) at age 18 years. At age 1 year, HRs relative to CD4% = 20 were 1.39 (95% CI: 1.16-1.66) at CD4% = 15, and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.36-0.75) at CD4% = 30; at age 10, corresponding estimates were 1.07 (95% CI: 0.94-1.20) at CD4% = 15, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.69-1.13) at CD4% = 30. CONCLUSIONS: Young age, low BMI-for-age, and low CD4% at ART initiation predicted higher risk of treatment failure and can guide targeted support.

Humans

Demographic and clinical characteristics as predictors of length of hospitalization and readmission.

The present study investigated demographic and clinical characteristics of psychiatric patients in relation to the two criterion variables of length of hospitalization and readmission within 3 months of discharge. Stepwise multiple regression analysis identified five variables as the optimal set of predictors for length of hospitalization: age, history of commitment, number of prior psychiatric hospitalizations, recent employment history, and past history of suicidal behavior (R = .451). Regression analysis also identified six variables as the optimal set of predictors for readmission within 3 months of discharge: type of discharge, number of prior psychiatric hospitalizations, race, suicide attempt within 1 month prior to admission, subjective report of depression upon admission, and occupational level (R = .452). Implications of the findings for identifying short-term treatment candidates and factors related to readmission are discussed.

Adult

Predictors of BRCA1/2 genetic testing among Black women with breast cancer: a population-based study.

Evidence shows that Black women diagnosed with breast cancer are substantially less likely to undergo BRCA testing and other multipanel genetic testing compared to White women, despite having a higher incidence of early-age onset breast cancer and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Our study identifies predictors of BRCA testing among Black women treated for breast cancer and examines differences between BRCA testers and nontesters. We conducted an analysis of 945 Black women ages 18-64 diagnosed with localized or regional-stage invasive breast cancer in Pennsylvania and Florida between 2007 and 2009. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of BRCA 1/2 testing. Few (27%) (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;252) of the participants reported having BRCA testing. In the multivariate analysis, we found that perceived benefits of BRCA testing (predisposing factor) ([OR], 1.16; 95% CI: 1.11-1.21; P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), income (enabling factor) ([OR], 2.10; 95% CI: 1.16-3.80; p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.014), and BRCA mutation risk category (need factor) ([OR], 3.78; 95% CI: 2.31-6.19; P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001) predicted BRCA testing. These results suggest that interventions to reduce disparities in BRCA testing should focus on identifying patients with high risk of mutation, increasing patient understanding of the benefits of BRCA testing, and removing financial and other administrative barriers to genetic testing.

Adolescent