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PubMed1978

Food production relationships between entrée combinations and forecasted demand.

Macro elements and values for associated Time Measurement Units were applied to three classifications of entrées to synthesize production time for 100, 300, and 500 portions. Average handling and process time for each classification and time per portion were calculated. Data revealed that roast and single-item entrées required greater average handling time than combination entrées, because more individual handling of portions was required as forecasted demand increased. Process time for combination and single-item entrées increased as forecasted demand increased. The time for the single-item classification doubled for 300 and 500 portions, because oven capacity was exceeded. Production time data were applied to six combinations (menu mixes) and quantity levels of entrée classifications to determine production feasibility in a simulated foodservice system. Production problems were encountered in five of the six menu mixes because of system constraints. This study indicated that total production time estimates would be useful to foodservice managers when planning a menu mix, scheduling production personnel, and forecasting labor costs.

Food Handling↗

PubMed1979

Forecasting progress in preventive dentistry.

Technological forecasting is a new discipline with research methodologies of its own. One of the methods is the delphi-experiment. Predictive experiments have been conducted in both medicine and pharmacology, but not yet in the field of dentistry and dental research. The first round of the present dental delphi-experiment was conducted in 1975 with the participation of an international panel consisting of 91 experts. The experts were requested to respond to six questions related to dental caries and six questions related to periodontal disease. Numerous forecasts concerning future developments or breakthroughs were given by the international panel. This report discusses the preliminary findings.

Dental Caries↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba.

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kourí Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the beginning of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficiently accurate to warrant its use as a practical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Cuba↗

PubMed1992

Forecasting health: data needs and implications for model structure.

An agenda for analysing data on the health and functioning of the elderly must indicate new types of data to be collected, innovations in data collection strategies and new methods for analysis and forecasting. The required research agenda is broad and will require inputs from investigators in a number of disciplines. The data and methods required will need to be developed in order to reflect national, regional and local variations in the health phenomena under study; they will also have to be responsive to these variations. In the end, however, if the investment is to be most useful, it must be integrated into simulation and forecasting models, the mechanics of which are based on individual-level processes and not on the elements of the service system.

Breast Neoplasms↗

PubMed1975

Reliability of forecasts of annoyance reactions. A study of exposure to noise and air pollution.

Studies of the effect of external environmental factors on the individual are often carried out in order to obtain a basis for forecasts. The aim of the case studies reported has been to check the reliability of predictions of annoyance from four different external sources of discomfort. The results confirm the assumption that forecasts based on empirical studies provide a reliable picture of what the occurrence and extent of the annoyance reactions will be.

Air Pollution↗

PubMed1979

Forecasting the onset of a scrub typhus epidemic in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan using daily maximum temperatures.

Daily maximum atmospheric temperatures were used to forecast the seasonal onset of scrub typhus in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan. The day of the year on which the temperature first reached 30 degrees C was selected as the predictive base. Predictions for 1977 closely matched observed events. The model provides an easy and effective means to forecast the start of scrub typhus epidemics in the Pescadores Islands and could be used for such practical purposes as determining when prophylactic antibiotics should be administered to subjects whose risk of infection with Rickettsia tsutsugamushi is high.

Disease Outbreaks↗

PubMed1978

Automated purchasing: Forecasts to determine stock levels and print orders.

An automated purchasing system to optimize inventory levels of frozen foods, including meat items, while minimizing stock outages, was developed and implemented. Menu item forecast data were coordinated with on-hand quantities to automate the calculation of order quantities and printing purchase requisitions. The model selected also incorporated: (a) Safety stock level, (b) accumulated forecasts, and (c) accumulated orders already placed. The project was smoothly integrated into an on-going computer-assisted management system. All programs functioned as planned; computer documents were complete and accurate. The system design was retained for use in the foodservice operation.

Computers↗

PubMed2026

AI-enabled viral genomics: from virus discovery to host prediction and emerging variant forecasting.

The rapid expansion of metagenomic sequencing has generated vast repositories of viral sequence data that far outpace our capacity to interpret them using conventional approaches. Highly divergent sequences, sparse functional annotation, and taxonomically uneven sampling present fundamental challenges for reference-dependent methods, which lose sensitivity precisely for novel and understudied viruses with high public health relevance. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a new avenue to address these challenges by enabling predictive inference from viral genomes and proteins while reducing dependence on sequence similarity. In this Review, we discuss representative advances in AI for virus discovery, taxonomic classification and functional annotation, prediction of host range and zoonotic potential, and efforts toward forecasting emerging variants. These advances are transforming viral genomics from a largely descriptive discipline into one with increasing predictive capability. We also critically assess the major challenges that constrain current approaches, including the availability of high-quality and representative datasets, rigorous model evaluation, biological interpretability and responsible governance for increasingly capable AI models.

Artificial Intelligence↗

PubMed1979

Forecasting health manpower requirements: the case of thoracic surgeons.

This paper presents projections of the future demand for thoracic surgery. Estimates of the future supplies of thoracic surgeons are constructed based on three alternative annual Board-certification rates. The consequences of varying supplies of thoracic surgeons, for a given level of expected demand, are presented in terms of expected work-load levels. Since it is costly to society if there are too few thoracic surgeons and since it is an obvious waste of resources if there are too many, no single estimate for an optimal annual increase in the number of thoracic surgeons is suggested. Important inadequacies of data for both forecasting demand and determining work loads are noted.

Certification↗

PubMed1975

Forecasting and medical education.

The ability to render more accurate predictions of the future will enable medical educators and administrators to make more advantageous policy and program decisions. Modern forecasting techniques and criteria to evaluate prognostic endeavors are described. Examples of how these methods can be applied to medical education are provided.

Decision Making↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic morbidity in Cuba.

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2026

Multimodal Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Early Detection and Forecasting of Plant Diseases.

Plant diseases destroy 20-40% of global food production annually, posing a critical threat to food security for a projected population of 9.7 billion by 2050. Conventional diagnostic approaches relying on expert visual assessment are slow, costly, and unsuitable for modern agricultural scales. While deep convolutional neural networks demonstrated early promise, single-modality, image-centric systems consistently fail under real-world field conditions characterized by variable lighting, co-occurring infections, and cultivar diversity. This review synthesizes a decade of progress across four interconnected frontiers: the evolution of deep learning architectures for plant disease detection; the adaptation of foundation models including CLIP, SAM, and DINOv2 to agricultural contexts; the development of multimodal fusion frameworks integrating imagery, environmental, genomic, and hyperspectral data; and the transition from static disease diagnosis to descriptive comparison of reported metrics, which suggested that multimodal approaches frequently reported improved diagnostic performance relative to corresponding single-modality baselines, although direct cross-study comparison was limited by methodological heterogeneity. A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines identifies eligible comparative studies. Descriptive comparison of reported performance metrics across these studies indicated that multimodal approaches generally achieved higher accuracy and sensitivity than single-modality models, particularly for pre-symptomatic disease detection. Eight critical research gaps are identified, including the absence of a unified agricultural foundation model and limited climate-aware forecasting under non-stationary climate projections. A structured research agenda is proposed to accelerate translation from laboratory performance to globally equitable, field-deployable crop protection systems.

convolutional neural networks↗

PubMed1992

Forecasts of the costs of medical care for persons with HIV: 1992-1995.

This study concludes that the cumulative (national) cost of treating all persons with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rose considerably over the past year and will continue to rise over the next several years. It is forecast that the cumulative cost of treating all persons with HIV will increase 48% from 1992 to 1995 (from $10.3 billion to $15.2 billion). It is estimated that the average yearly cost of treating a person with AIDS is $38,300 and of treating an infected person without AIDS is $10,000. The lifetime cost of treating a PWA is calculated to be $102,000. This is the first study to use, along with other data, data from the AIDS Cost and Service Utilization Survey to estimate the cost of treating persons with the HIV. The study also projects the number of AIDS cases to be 66,300 in 1992, 76,200 in 1993, 86,800 in 1994, and 97,800 in 1995.

Ambulatory Care↗

PubMed1978

Forecasting the incidence of parasitic gastroenteritis in lambs in England and Wales.

An empirical method for forecasting the incidence of parasitic gastroenteritis in sheep in England and Wales is described. The level of disease in lambs in late summer depends on the date soil moisture returns to field capacity (the autumn return date) in the previous year together with rainfall from May to July in the current year. The importance of a late autumn return date and winter weather in relation to disease in stock at other times of the year is also discussed.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Forecasting the development of the workshops for repair of medical equipment].

A rapidly increasing provision of public health establishments with medical equipment and the need of continually keeping up its performance efficiency require a scientific approach to forecasting the necessary technical maintanance service and, consequently, an adequate growth of the repair workshops capacity. The dependance elicited on the example of the Perm works for repair of medical equipment suggests considering economicomathematical models for the development of the like enterprises serving the purpose of planning capital investments in the construction of new and reconstruction of old workshops and plants within the system of "Medtekhnika".

Biomedical Engineering↗

PubMed1978

Psychophysiological forecasting of efficiency.

The method of mathematical forecasting of the changes in efficiency throughout an increase in emotional stress is suggested on the basis of experimental data from experiments in which paratroopers discerned visual patterns. The comparison of human errors with the experimental results obtained in animals permitted formulation of several suppositions on the role of different cerebral structures in the genesis of emotional stress and the mechanisms of its effect on perceptive activity.

Aviation↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Ovine dicrocoeliasis: incidence of climatic factors and share in the setting of a forecasting method (author's transl)].

Study of annual activity cycle of ants parasited with Dicrocoelium lanceolatum. Effect of some climatic factors (temperature, rainfall) on seasonal variations of the number of clinching parasited ants. A close analysis of the data displays a double correlation: the increase of the number of clinching ants indirectly brought about by precipitations and this with some delay; a strong decrease by high temperatures in the height of summer. Setting of a calendar including the different stages of the developing cycle of Dicrocoelium lanceolatum in Limousin and proposition of a forecasting technic established from land observations.

Animals↗

PubMed1977

[A simple procedure to forecast the course of diseases (author's transl)].

A procedure is presented which enables the physician to forecast the course a disease will take by looking through a list of items with attached numbers, i.e. weights, and simply adding the weights of those items which hold true for a specific patient. The application of this procedure to three different diseases, namely schizophrenia, facial paresis, and aphasia is presented and proves its accuracy. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo Analysis of the procedure underlying this method--multiple linear regression of dichotomous items--leads to recommendations concerning the optimum definitions of items and the structuring of data. The procedure is compared with other methods used in computer diagnosis and its main advantage, apart from its high reliability, i.e. independence of computers in its application, is stressed. Its application to other diseases is encouraged and the presentation of data for processing by this Department is invited.

Aphasia↗