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Discovering molecular pathways from protein interaction and gene expression data.

In this paper, we describe an approach for identifying 'pathways' from gene expression and protein interaction data. Our approach is based on the assumption that many pathways exhibit two properties: their genes exhibit a similar gene expression profile, and the protein products of the genes often interact. Our approach is based on a unified probabilistic model, which is learned from the data using the EM algorithm. We present results on two Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data sets, combined with a binary protein interaction data set. Our results show that our approach is much more successful than other approaches at discovering both coherent functional groups and entire protein complexes.

Algorithms↗

Genome-wide discovery of transcriptional modules from DNA sequence and gene expression.

In this paper, we describe an approach for understanding transcriptional regulation from both gene expression and promoter sequence data. We aim to identify transcriptional modules--sets of genes that are co-regulated in a set of experiments, through a common motif profile. Using the EM algorithm, our approach refines both the module assignment and the motif profile so as to best explain the expression data as a function of transcriptional motifs. It also dynamically adds and deletes motifs, as required to provide a genome-wide explanation of the expression data. We evaluate the method on two Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data sets, showing that our approach is better than a standard one at recovering known motifs and at generating biologically coherent modules. We also combine our results with binding localization data to obtain regulatory relationships with known transcription factors, and show that many of the inferred relationships have support in the literature.

Algorithms↗

Gene networks inference using dynamic Bayesian networks.

This article deals with the identification of gene regulatory networks from experimental data using a statistical machine learning approach. A stochastic model of gene interactions capable of handling missing variables is proposed. It can be described as a dynamic Bayesian network particularly well suited to tackle the stochastic nature of gene regulation and gene expression measurement. Parameters of the model are learned through a penalized likelihood maximization implemented through an extended version of EM algorithm. Our approach is tested against experimental data relative to the S.O.S. DNA Repair network of the Escherichia coli bacterium. It appears to be able to extract the main regulations between the genes involved in this network. An added missing variable is found to model the main protein of the network. Good prediction abilities on unlearned data are observed. These first results are very promising: they show the power of the learning algorithm and the ability of the model to capture gene interactions.

Algorithms↗

Statistical modeling of sequencing errors in SAGE libraries.

MOTIVATION: Sequencing errors may bias the gene expression measurements made by Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE). They may introduce non-existent tags at low abundance and decrease the real abundance of other tags. These effects are increased in the longer tags generated in LongSAGE libraries. Current sequencing technology generates quite accurate estimates of sequencing error rates. Here we make use of the sequence neighborhood of SAGE tags and error estimates from the base-calling software to correct for such errors. RESULTS: We introduce a statistical model for the propagation of sequencing errors in SAGE and suggest an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to correct for them given observed sequences in a library and base-calling error estimates. We tested our method using simulated and experimental SAGE libraries. When comparing SAGE libraries, we found that sequencing errors can introduce considerable bias. High abundance tags may be falsely called as significantly differentially expressed, especially when comparing libraries with different levels of sequencing errors and/or of different size. Truly, differentially expressed tags have decreased significance as 'true'-tag counts are generally underestimated. This may alter if tags near the threshold of differential expression are called significant. Moreover, the number of different transcripts present in a library is overestimated as false tags are introduced at low abundance. Our correction method adjusts the tag counts to be closer to the true counts and is able to partly correct for biases introduced by sequencing errors. AVAILABILITY: An implementation using R is distributed as an R package. An online version is available at http://tagcalling.mbgproject.org

Algorithms↗

A meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies with interval-censored exposure data: application to chorionic villus sampling.

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) is a valued method of prenatal diagnosis that is often preferred over amniocentesis because it can be performed earlier, but which has also raised concern over a possible association with increased risk of terminal transverse limb deficiency (TTLD). We present and apply a meta-analytic method for estimating a combined dose-response effect from a series of case-control and cohort studies in which the exposure variable is interval-censored. Assuming coarsening at random for the interval-censoring, and calling upon the familiar result of Cornfield to pool case-control and cohort information on the association between a rare binary outcome and a multilevel exposure variable, we form a likelihood-based model to assess the effect of gestational age at the time of CVS on the presence or absence of a rare birth defect. Effect estimates are computed with a variant of the EM algorithm termed the method of weights, which enables the use of standard weighted regression software. Our findings suggest that CVS exposure at early gestational age leads to an increased risk of TTLD.

Journal Article↗

Maximum likelihood estimation in random effects cure rate models with nonignorable missing covariates.

We introduce a method of parameter estimation for a random effects cure rate model. We also propose a methodology that allows us to account for nonignorable missing covariates in this class of models. The proposed method corrects for possible bias introduced by complete case analysis when missing data are not missing completely at random and is motivated by data from a pair of melanoma studies conducted by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group in which clustering by cohort or time of study entry was suspected. In addition, these models allow estimation of cure rates, which is desirable when we do not wish to assume that all subjects remain at risk of death or relapse from disease after sufficient follow-up. We develop an EM algorithm for the model and provide an efficient Gibbs sampling scheme for carrying out the E-step of the algorithm.

Journal Article↗

The joint modeling of a longitudinal disease progression marker and the failure time process in the presence of cure.

In this paper we present an extension of cure models: to incorporate a longitudinal disease progression marker. The model is motivated by studies of patients with prostate cancer undergoing radiation therapy. The patients are followed until recurrence of the prostate cancer or censoring, with the PSA marker measured intermittently. Some patients are cured by the treatment and are immune from recurrence. A joint-cure model is developed for this type of data, in which the longitudinal marker and the failure time process are modeled jointly, with a fraction of patients assumed to be immune from the endpoint. A hierarchical nonlinear mixed-effects model is assumed for the marker and a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model is used to model the time to endpoint. The probability of cure is modeled by a logistic link. The parameters are estimated using a Monte Carlo EM algorithm. Importance sampling with an adaptively chosen t-distribution and variable Monte Carlo sample size is used. We apply the method to data from prostate cancer and perform a simulation study. We show that by incorporating the longitudinal disease progression marker into the cure model, we obtain parameter estimates with better statistical properties. The classification of the censored patients into the cure group and the susceptible group based on the estimated conditional recurrence probability from the joint-cure model has a higher sensitivity and specificity, and a lower misclassification probability compared with the standard cure model. The addition of the longitudinal data has the effect of reducing the impact of the identifiability problems in a standard cure model and can help overcome biases due to informative censoring.

Journal Article↗

Generalized additive models for cancer mapping with incomplete covariates.

Maps depicting cancer incidence rates have become useful tools in public health research, giving valuable information about the spatial variation in rates of disease. Typically, these maps are generated using count data aggregated over areas such as counties or census blocks. However, with the proliferation of geographic information systems and related databases, it is becoming easier to obtain exact spatial locations for the cancer cases and suitable control subjects. The use of such point data allows us to adjust for individual-level covariates, such as age and smoking status, when estimating the spatial variation in disease risk. Unfortunately, such covariate information is often subject to missingness. We propose a method for mapping cancer risk when covariates are not completely observed. We model these data using a logistic generalized additive model. Estimates of the linear and non-linear effects are obtained using a mixed effects model representation. We develop an EM algorithm to account for missing data and the random effects. Since the expectation step involves an intractable integral, we estimate the E-step with a Laplace approximation. This framework provides a general method for handling missing covariate values when fitting generalized additive models. We illustrate our method through an analysis of cancer incidence data from Cape Cod, Massachusetts. These analyses demonstrate that standard complete-case methods can yield biased estimates of the spatial variation of cancer risk.

Algorithms↗

High resolution of quantitative traits into multiple loci via interval mapping.

A very general method is described for multiple linear regression of a quantitative phenotype on genotype [putative quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and markers] in segregating generations obtained from line crosses. The method exploits two features, (a) the use of additional parental and F1 data, which fixes the joint QTL effects and the environmental error, and (b) the use of markers as cofactors, which reduces the genetic background noise. As a result, a significant increase of QTL detection power is achieved in comparison with conventional QTL mapping. The core of the method is the completion of any missing genotypic (QTL and marker) observations, which is embedded in a general and simple expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. The method is described in detail for the analysis of an F2 generation. Because of the generality of the approach, it is easily applicable to other generations, such as backcross progenies and recombinant inbred lines. An example is presented in which multiple QTLs for plant height in tomato are mapped in an F2 progeny, using additional data from the parents and their F1 progeny.

Chromosome Mapping↗

A general Monte Carlo method for mapping multiple quantitative trait loci.

In this paper we address the mapping of multiple quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in line crosses for which the genetic data are highly incomplete. Such complicated situations occur, for instance, when dominant markers are used or when unequally informative markers are used in experiments with outbred populations. We describe a general and flexible Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (Monte Carlo EM) algorithm for fitting multiple-QTL models to such data. Implementation of this algorithm is straightforward in standard statistical software, but computation may take much time. The method may be generalized to cope with more complex models for animal and human pedigrees. A practical example is presented, where a three-QTL model is adopted in an outbreeding situation with dominant markers. The example is concerned with the linkage between randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers and QTLs for partial resistance to Fusarium oxysporum in lily.

Algorithms↗

A random model approach to mapping quantitative trait loci for complex binary traits in outbred populations.

Mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) for complex binary traits is more challenging than for normally distributed traits due to the nonlinear relationship between the observed phenotype and unobservable genetic effects, especially when the mapping population contains multiple outbred families. Because the number of alleles of a QTL depends on the number of founders in an outbred population, it is more appropriate to treat the effect of each allele as a random variable so that a single variance rather than individual allelic effects is estimated and tested. Such a method is called the random model approach. In this study, we develop the random model approach of QTL mapping for binary traits in outbred populations. An EM-algorithm with a Fisher-scoring algorithm embedded in each E-step is adopted here to estimate the genetic variances. A simple Monte Carlo integration technique is used here to calculate the likelihood-ratio test statistic. For the first time we show that QTL of complex binary traits in an outbred population can be scanned along a chromosome for their positions, estimated for their explained variances, and tested for their statistical significance. Application of the method is illustrated using a set of simulated data.

Breeding↗

Multipoint mapping of viability and segregation distorting loci using molecular markers.

In line-crossing experiments, deviations from Mendelian segregation ratios are usually observed for some markers. We hypothesize that these deviations are caused by one or more segregation-distorting loci (SDL) linked to the markers. We develop both a maximum-likelihood (ML) method and a Bayesian method to map SDL using molecular markers. The ML mapping is implemented via an EM algorithm and the Bayesian method is performed via the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian mapping is computationally more intensive than the ML mapping but can handle more complicated models such as multiple SDL and variable number of SDL. Both methods are applied to a set of simulated data and real data from a cross of two Scots pine trees.

Alleles↗

Construction of a genetic linkage map in tetraploid species using molecular markers.

This article presents methodology for the construction of a linkage map in an autotetraploid species, using either codominant or dominant molecular markers scored on two parents and their full-sib progeny. The steps of the analysis are as follows: identification of parental genotypes from the parental and offspring phenotypes; testing for independent segregation of markers; partition of markers into linkage groups using cluster analysis; maximum-likelihood estimation of the phase, recombination frequency, and LOD score for all pairs of markers in the same linkage group using the EM algorithm; ordering the markers and estimating distances between them; and reconstructing their linkage phases. The information from different marker configurations about the recombination frequency is examined and found to vary considerably, depending on the number of different alleles, the number of alleles shared by the parents, and the phase of the markers. The methods are applied to a simulated data set and to a small set of SSR and AFLP markers scored in a full-sib population of tetraploid potato.

Algorithms↗

A multivalent pairing model of linkage analysis in autotetraploids.

Polyploidy has been recognized as an important step in the evolutionary diversification of flowering plants and may have a significant impact on plant breeding. Statistical analyses for linkage mapping in polyploid species can be difficult due to considerable complexities in polysomic inheritance. In this article, we develop a novel statistical method for linkage analysis of polymorphic markers in a full-sib family of autotetraploids. This method is established on multivalent pairings of homologous chromosomes at meiosis and can provide a simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of the double reduction frequencies of and recombination fraction between two markers. The EM algorithm is implemented to provide a tractable way for estimating relative proportions of different modes of gamete formation that generate identical gamete genotypes due to multivalent pairings. Extensive simulation studies were performed to demonstrate the statistical properties of this method. The implications of the new method for understanding the genome structure and organization of polyploid species are discussed.

Algorithms↗

Functional mapping of quantitative trait loci underlying the character process: a theoretical framework.

Unlike a character measured at a finite set of landmark points, function-valued traits are those that change as a function of some independent and continuous variable. These traits, also called infinite-dimensional characters, can be described as the character process and include a number of biologically, economically, or biomedically important features, such as growth trajectories, allometric scalings, and norms of reaction. Here we present a new statistical infrastructure for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying the character process. This strategy, termed functional mapping, integrates mathematical relationships of different traits or variables within the genetic mapping framework. Logistic mapping proposed in this article can be viewed as an example of functional mapping. Logistic mapping is based on a universal biological law that for each and every living organism growth over time follows an exponential growth curve (e.g., logistic or S-shaped). A maximum-likelihood approach based on a logistic-mixture model, implemented with the EM algorithm, is developed to provide the estimates of QTL positions, QTL effects, and other model parameters responsible for growth trajectories. Logistic mapping displays a tremendous potential to increase the power of QTL detection, the precision of parameter estimation, and the resolution of QTL localization due to the small number of parameters to be estimated, the pleiotropic effect of a QTL on growth, and/or residual correlations of growth at different ages. More importantly, logistic mapping allows for testing numerous biologically important hypotheses concerning the genetic basis of quantitative variation, thus gaining an insight into the critical role of development in shaping plant and animal evolution and domestication. The power of logistic mapping is demonstrated by an example of a forest tree, in which one QTL affecting stem growth processes is detected on a linkage group using our method, whereas it cannot be detected using current methods. The advantages of functional mapping are also discussed.

Chromosome Mapping↗

A general statistical framework for mapping quantitative trait loci in nonmodel systems: issue for characterizing linkage phases.

Because of uncertainty about linkage phases of founders, linkage mapping in nonmodel, outcrossing systems using molecular markers presents one of the major statistical challenges in genetic research. In this article, we devise a statistical method for mapping QTL affecting a complex trait by incorporating all possible QTL-marker linkage phases within a mapping framework. The advantage of this model is the simultaneous estimation of linkage phases and QTL location and effect parameters. These estimates are obtained through maximum-likelihood methods implemented with the EM algorithm. Extensive simulation studies are performed to investigate the statistical properties of our model. In a case study from a forest tree, this model has successfully identified a significant QTL affecting wood density. Also, the probability of the linkage phase between this QTL and its flanking markers is estimated. The implications of our model and its extension to more general circumstances are discussed.

Chromosome Mapping↗

A likelihood-based method of identifying contaminated lots of blood product.

BACKGROUND: In 1994 a small cluster of hepatitis-C cases in Rhesus-negative women in Ireland prompted a nationwide screening programme for hepatitis-C antibodies in all anti-D recipients. A total of 55 386 women presented for screening and a history of exposure to anti-D was sought from all those testing positive and a sample of those testing negative. The resulting data comprised 620 antibody-positive and 1708 antibody-negative women with known exposure history, and interest was focused on using these data to estimate the infectivity of anti-D in the period 1970-1993. METHODS: Any exposure to anti-D provides an opportunity for infection, but the infection status at each exposure time is not observed. Instead, the available data from antibody testing only indicate whether at least one of the exposures resulted in infection. Using a simple Bernoulli model to describe the risk of infection in each year, the absence of information regarding which exposure(s) led to infection fits neatly into the framework of 'incomplete data'. Hence the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm provides estimates of the infectiousness of anti-D in each of the 24 years studied. RESULTS: The analysis highlighted the 1977 anti-D as a source of infection, a fact which was confirmed by laboratory investigation. Other suspect batches were also identified, helping to direct the efforts of laboratory investigators. CONCLUSIONS: We have presented a method to estimate the risk of infection at each exposure time from multiple exposure data. The method can also be used to estimate transmission rates and the risk associated with different sources of infection in a range of infectious disease applications.

Algorithms↗

A study on effectiveness of screening mammograms.

BACKGROUND: So far, no randomized controlled trials with a mean mammographic screening interval of > or = 2 years has demonstrated statistically significant mortality reduction for women younger than age 50. The issue of screening frequency is vital in detection of primary breast cancer. METHODS: The study group consisted of cancers diagnosed in women who participated in a serial screening programme with a mean screening interval of 2 years. To study the effectiveness of the screening, a comparison is made between the distribution of age at which the tumour could be detected when biennial mammographic screening is the only detection method, and the distribution of age at which the tumour would be detected by either biennial mammographic screening or the development of symptoms. Some recently developed statistic methods, such as bootstrap, the maximum likelihood distribution estimator for doubly censored data and the EM algorithm, are used in estimation of these distributions. RESULTS: The hypothesis tests and confidence intervals show that the difference between the two distributions was statistically significant for women younger than 50 and 50-70 years old, but not for women over 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: The statistical analysis indicates that for women younger than 50, and 50-70 years of age, a screening mammogram every other year is not frequent enough to detect primary breast cancer, but for women over 70 years, it might be sufficient.

Age Distribution↗