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PubMed1995

Six-year predictors of problems in a national sample of children and youth: II. Signs of disturbance.

OBJECTIVE: To identify 1986 and 1989 variables that significantly predicted signs of disturbance assessed in 1992. METHOD: 1986 parent reports and 1989 parent, teacher, and self-reports of syndromes, competencies, family variables, and stressful experiences were tested as predictors of 1992 reports of academic problems, school behavior problems, receipt of mental health services, suicidal behavior, police contacts, substance abuse, and the sum of these six signs. RESULTS: The predictors accounted for large percentages of variance in most signs and predicted fairly accurately which members of case-control samples would manifest specific signs. Overall predictive accuracy was similar for both sexes, but many predictors differed for boys versus girls. The six signs were weakly associated with each other but were strongly associated with particular syndromes. CONCLUSIONS: Signs of disturbance were predictable over a 6-year period despite the diversity of a national sample. Previous manifestations of certain signs were modest predictors of the same signs. The Delinquent Behavior and Attention Problems syndromes, plus stressful experiences, predicted the most signs. Sex differences in predictors argue against generalizing findings and inferences from one sex to the other.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Predictors of students' success in the Medical Service Apprentice course.

This study assessed the predictors of students' success in the 383d Training Squadron's Medical Service Apprentice course at Sheppard Air Force Base, Texas. Correlation and regression analyses provided seven predictors of students' success. These predictors were the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery Mechanical score, block 1 grade, block 3 grade, block 3 student hours, block 4 grade, block 4 student hours, and National Registry Emergency Medical Technician Test 1 grade. From these predictors, researchers ascertained demarcation points to provide direction for instructors and students. Using this guidance, proactive intervention by instructors and the Student Learning Center will improve the success of Medical Service Apprentice course students. Further research conducted by the 882d Training Group to evaluate predictors of success will yield a seamless evaluation process. This process will establish an improved proactive educational system enhancing the career field selection process and the quality of student education.

Aerospace Medicine↗

PubMed1998

Predictors of pathological stage before neoadjuvant androgen withdrawal therapy and radical prostatectomy. The Canadian Urologic Oncology Group.

PURPOSE: This prospective randomized trial was used to compare predictive factors for organ confined margin negative status after radical prostatectomy with and without a 3-month course of neoadjuvant androgen withdrawal therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 213 patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate were randomized to radical prostatectomy with or without a 3-month course of 300 mg. neoadjuvant cyproterone acetate daily. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant predictors of organ confined margin negative status after radical prostatectomy in both groups. Parameters evaluated included baseline prostate specific antigen (PSA 4 or less, 4.1 to 10, greater than 10 ng./ml.), clinical stage (T2c versus T2b or less), biopsy Gleason score and percentage of surface area of biopsies involved with cancer. The multivariate analysis was repeated with PSA density and the natural logarithm of PSA to optimize the model. RESULTS: In the radical prostatectomy alone arm a model incorporating only PSA density was the best predictor of organ confined margin negative status. In the neoadjuvant androgen withdrawal therapy arm a model incorporating biopsy Gleason score, PSA density and clinical stage was the best predictor. CONCLUSIONS: The conventional predictors of pathology at radical prostatectomy, biopsy Gleason score, PSA density and clinical stage retain significance as predictors in patients treated with a 3-month course of neoadjuvant androgen withdrawal therapy before radical prostatectomy.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed1998

Modeling postradiation prostate specific antigen level kinetics: predictors of rising postnadir slope suggest cure in men who remain biochemically free of prostate carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The goals of this study are twofold: 1) to describe the postradiation kinetics of nonrecurring prostate carcinoma based on prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels in men who remain biochemically free of disease; and 2) to determine predictors of all three components of the resulting piecewise exponential model based on pretreatment and treatment characteristics. METHODS: Between March 1988 and May 1994, 153 patients with T1-T3 nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma were treated definitively with radiation therapy and at last follow-up had not failed biochemically (PSA rising on 2 consecutive occasions to a level > 1.0 ng/mL or 3 consecutive elevations). All patients were required to have at least 6 posttreatment PSA determinations and a minimum follow-up of 36 months. The median follow-up was 53 months (range, 36-94 months). A piecewise exponential model was used to describe the mean PSA levels because 1) the kinetics of postradiation PSA levels appear to follow first-order rate processes, and 2) there is evidence that PSA levels may rise slightly several years after treatment. Nonlinear mixed effects modeling was used in this situation because of the aforementioned nonlinearity and because variability between patients and within patients (PSA variation) must be taken into account. In addition, this methodology allows for modeling parameters as a function of patient and treatment characteristics. RESULTS: The random effects model based on the entire patient population demonstrated that PSA levels do not continue to drop 3 years after treatment, and that in fact the levels begin to rise slowly between 2-3 years after treatment. Pretreatment PSA was the only independent predictor of baseline PSA at time zero (end of radiation therapy). Gleason score was the only independent predictor of the rate of PSA decline after treatment, in which tumors with Gleason scores 7-10 drop at a slower rate than do tumors with Gleason scores 2-6. Finally, pretreatment prostate volume was the only independent predictor of the postnadir rise in PSA level, in which larger volumes translate to a steeper slope. CONCLUSIONS: The fact that pretreatment PSA level is the only independent predictor of the baseline PSA at time zero is not surprising. The observation that patients with tumors with higher Gleason scores have a slower rate of decline is in agreement with previous reports that these tumors contribute less PSA per unit volume than do tumors with moderate to well differentiation. Finally, the fact that no tumor-related characteristic (only pretreatment prostate volume) was predictive independently of the observed postnadir rise in PSA level suggests that these patients were cured.

Aged↗

PubMed2001

Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level as a predictor of cardiovascular disease mortality.

BACKGROUND: Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) contains all known and potential atherogenic lipid particles. Therefore, non-HDL-C level may be as good a potential predictor of risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) as low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). OBJECTIVES: To determine whether non-HDL-C level could be useful in predicting CVD mortality and to compare the predictive value of non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels. METHODS: Data are from the Lipid Research Clinics Program Follow-up Study, a mortality study with baseline data gathered from 1972 through 1976, and mortality ascertained through 1995. A total of 2406 men and 2056 women aged 40 to 64 years at entry were observed for an average of 19 years, with CVD death as the main outcome measure. RESULTS: A total of 234 CVD deaths in men and 113 CVD deaths in women occurred during follow-up. Levels of HDL-C and non-HDL-C at baseline were significant and strong predictors of CVD death in both sexes. In contrast, LDL-C level was a somewhat weaker predictor of CVD death in both. Differences of 0.78 mmol/L (30 mg/dL) in non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels corresponded to increases in CVD risk of 19% and 15%, respectively, in men. In women, differences of 0.78 mmol/L (30 mg/dL) in non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels corresponded to increases in CVD risk of 11% and 8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Non-HDL-C level is a somewhat better predictor of CVD mortality than LDL-C level. Screening for non-HDL-C level may be useful for CVD risk assessment.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Neurodevelopment and predictors of outcomes of children with birth weights of less than 1000 g: 1992-1995.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the neurosensory and cognitive status of extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW; < 1,000 g) children born from January 1, 1992, through December 31, 1995, and to identify the significant predictors of outcome. DESIGN: An inception cohort of ELBW infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and observed to 20 months' corrected age. SETTING: A tertiary level urban NICU and follow-up clinic at a university hospital. POPULATION: Of 333 ELBW infants without major congenital malformations admitted to the NICU, 241 (72%) survived to 20 months' corrected age. We studied 221 children (92%) at a mean of 20 months' corrected age. The mean birth weight was 813 g; mean gestational age, 26.4 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Assessments of cognitive and neurosensory development. RESULTS: Major neurosensory abnormality was present in 54 children (24%), including 33 (15%) with cerebral palsy, 20 (9%) with deafness, and 2 (1%) with blindness. The mean (+/- SD) Bayley-Mental Developmental Index (MDI) score was 74.7 +/- 17. Ninety-two children (42%) had a subnormal MDI score (<70). Neurodevelopmental impairment (neurosensory abnormality and/or MDI score <70) was present in 105 children (48%). Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis that considered sex, social risk, birth weight, and neonatal risk factors revealed significant predictors of a subnormal MDI score to be male sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-4.92), social risk (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.09-2.00), and chronic lung disease (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.20-3.94). Predictors of neurologic abnormality were a severely abnormal finding on cerebral ultrasound (OR, 8.09; 95% CI, 3.69-17.71) and chronic lung disease (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.12-5.40); predictors of deafness were male sex (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.02-7.62), sepsis (OR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.05-9.48), and jaundice (maximal bilirubin level, >171 micromol/L [>10 mg/dL]) (OR, 4.80; 95% CI, 1.46-15.73). CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for research into the etiology and prevention of neonatal morbidity.

Brain Damage, Chronic↗

PubMed2002

Rates and predictors of mortality in an aging, rural, community-based cohort: the role of depression.

CONTEXT: Depression, functional disability, cognitive impairment, and self-rated health all predict mortality in the elderly population. There is no consensus on their relative contributions when examined together. OBJECTIVES: To measure rates and identify predictors of mortality in an aging community-based cohort. DESIGN: Ten-year prospective epidemiological study. Predictor variables examined in Cox proportional hazards models were self-rated health, ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), depressive symptoms, and cognitive functioning, controlling for age, sex, education, and number of prescription drugs. SETTING: A largely blue-collar rural community in southwestern Pennsylvania. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based cohort of 1064 adults, 67 years or older at the beginning of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality at 3, 5, and 10 years (133, 218, and 482 deaths, respectively). RESULTS: Mortality rates were similar to those of the 1990 US population. Older age, male sex, IADL disability, and number of prescription drugs measured at baseline were significant predictors of mortality at all 3 follow-up end points. Depression at baseline predicted earlier (3- and 5-year) mortality but not later (10-year) mortality. The interaction between self-rated health and depression independently and strongly predicted mortality at all end points. Cognitive functioning predicted mortality only when IADL disability was excluded from the model. CONCLUSIONS: Age, sex, depression, and functional disability are strong and consistent independent predictors of mortality in older adults in the community, in addition to objective medical burden (prescription drugs). Depression alone predicts mortality in the shorter rather than longer term, but in combination with poor self-rating of health, it strongly predicts mortality at all end points.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed1999

Preoperative serum albumin level as a predictor of operative mortality and morbidity: results from the National VA Surgical Risk Study.

OBJECTIVE: To improve the precision and reliability of estimates of the association between preoperative serum albumin concentration and surgical outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. Patients were followed up for 30 days postoperatively. Multiple logistic regression models were developed to evaluate serum albumin level as a predictor of operative mortality and morbidity in relation to 61 other preoperative patient risk variables. SETTING: Forty-four tertiary care Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers. PATIENTS: A total of 54215 major noncardiac surgery cases from the National VA Surgical Risk Study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Thirty-day operative mortality and morbidity. RESULTS: A decrease in serum albumin from concentrations greater than 46 g/L to less than 21 g/L was associated with an exponential increase in mortality rates from less than 1% to 29% and in morbidity rates from 10% to 65%. In the regression models, albumin level was the strongest predictor of mortality and morbidity for surgery as a whole and within several subspecialties selected for further analysis. Albumin level was a better predictor of some types of morbidity, particularly sepsis and major infections, than other types. CONCLUSIONS: Serum albumin concentration is a better predictor of surgical outcomes than many other preoperative patient characteristics. It is a relatively low-cost test that should be used more frequently as a prognostic tool to detect malnutrition and risk of adverse surgical outcomes, particularly in populations in whom comorbid conditions are relatively frequent.

Female↗

PubMed2004

Lack of improvement in patients with acute stroke after treatment with thrombolytic therapy: predictors and association with outcome.

CONTEXT: The focus of thrombolytic therapy in acute stroke has been on favorable outcome at 3 months. Few studies have analyzed outcome at 24 hours. An early and reliable prediction of poor outcome has implications for clinical management and discharge planning. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate predictors of lack of improvement at 24 hours after receiving alteplase and their relationship with poor outcome at 3 months. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort of consecutive patients with acute stroke who received alteplase and were admitted to a university hospital from January 1999 to March 2003. Participants were recruited from 2 academic centers in a major city in Ontario and 33 affiliated hospitals from 7 counties. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lack of improvement defined as a difference between the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at baseline and at 24 hours of 3 points or less. Poor outcome at 3 months defined by a modified Rankin Scale score of 3 to 5 or death. RESULTS: Among 216 patients with acute stroke who were treated with alteplase, 111 (51.4%) had a lack of improvement at 24 hours. After adjusting for age, sex, and stroke severity, baseline glucose level on admission (odds ratio [OR] 2.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40-5.99 for a glucose level >144 mg/dL [>8 mmol/L]), cortical involvement (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.36-5.20), and time to treatment (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.0-1.02 for each 1 minute increase in time to treatment) were independent predictors of lack of improvement. At 3 months, 43 patients (20.2%) had died; of the 170 survivors, 75 patients (44%) had poor outcomes. After adjusting for age, sex, and stroke severity, lack of improvement at 24 hours was an independent predictor of poor outcome (OR, 12.9; 95%CI, 5.7-29.6) and death (OR, 7.5; 95% CI, 2.9-19.6). Patients with a lack of improvement had longer lengths of hospitalization (14.5 vs 9.6 days; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with acute stroke treated with thrombolytic therapy, lack of improvement at 24 hours is associated with poor outcome and death at 3 months. Elevated glucose level, time to thrombolytic therapy, and cortical involvement were predictors of lack of improvement.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Course of objective memory impairment in non-demented subjects attending a memory clinic and predictors of outcome.

The aim of the study was to investigate the course of objective memory impairment in non-demented subjects who attended a memory clinic and to test predictors of outcome. Non-demented subjects (N=74) were included when they were older than 40 years and had a baseline score on the delayed recall of a word learning test below the tenth percentile. Subjects with memory impairment due to known somatic or neurological causes were excluded. The subjects were reassessed after 2 and 5 years. At the 5-year follow-up, 42% of the subjects had no memory impairment, 19% of the subjects had memory impairment without dementia, and 39% of the subjects had Alzheimer type dementia (AD). Predictors at baseline of reversible memory impairment in a multivariate analysis were age, scores on the MMSE and delayed recall, and the degree of functional impairment. Predictors at baseline of AD in a multivariate analysis were age and the score on the MMSE. The apolipoprotein E genotype and the presence of depression at baseline were not predictors of outcome. The positive predictive value was 72% for reversible memory impairment and 81% for AD. Memory impairment is often reversible and therefore its presence alone is not sufficient to consider subjects as preclinically demented. Predictive accuracy can be increased by including simple measures such as age, the scores on the MMSE and delayed recall, and the degree of functional impairment.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1990

Physician behaviors, patient perceptions, and patient characteristics as predictors of satisfaction of hospitalized adult cancer patients.

To examine potential predictors of cancer patient satisfaction with physician behavior, 366 cases were studied. Physician behavior was measured on morning rounds using the Physician Behavior Check List (PBCL). Patient satisfaction and perceptions were assessed after the visit. Patient characteristics were obtained from the chart and the physician. Results showed wide variation in physician behavior; no "standard" set of behaviors was seen in all interactions. Patient satisfaction was high (mean = 87.8 mm on a 100-mm scale). Path analysis showed four variables predicted 62% of the variance in patient satisfaction. The strongest predictor was the patient perception item, "perception of needs addressed that day." Other predictors were perception of emotional support provided by the physician, age (older), and one physician behavior, "discusses treatment." Patient perceptions of needs met or emotional support provided were predicted by perceptions of the occurrence of physician behaviors involving information such as the diagnosis and tests and treatment. Overall, patient perceptions of physician behaviors were stronger predictors of patient satisfaction than the actual occurrence or absence of those behaviors.

Consumer Behavior↗

PubMed1994

Serum tumor marker decline is an early predictor of treatment outcome in germ cell tumor patients treated with cisplatin and ifosfamide salvage chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Serum tumor marker regression (alpha-fetoprotein [AFP] and human chorionic gonadotrophin [hCG]) was studied in patients treated with ifosfamide-based chemotherapy for cisplatin-resistant germ cell tumors (GCT) to investigate the role of marker regression as a predictor of treatment outcome. METHODS: Fifty-four patients treated with cisplatin and ifosfamide-containing therapy were the subject of this retrospective analysis. The serum tumor marker half-life (T1/2) for the first two cycles of therapy was calculated for each patient using all marker values Day 7 through the end of the second treatment cycle. A calculated T1/2 for hCG of less than or equal to 3 days or a calculated T1/2 for AFP of less than or equal to 7 days was defined as appropriate marker regression; any T1/2 greater than these values was considered prolonged. A variable designated "marker decline" was defined to indicate whether the serum tumor marker half-life of AFP and/or hCG was satisfactory or unsatisfactory for each individual patient. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to investigate "marker decline" as a predictor for response, event-free survival (time to death or relapse), and overall survival. RESULTS: Satisfactory marker decline predicted an improved event-free survival and overall survival. The median event-free survival for patients with an unsatisfactory marker decline was 5.8 months versus 20.7 months for patients with a satisfactory marker decline. Survival for patients with an unsatisfactory marker decline was 6.3 months versus 20.7 months for those patients with a satisfactory marker decline. Further evaluation demonstrated that hCG decline was a stronger predictor for improved survival than AFP decline. A multivariate analysis performed on selected clinical variables using a Cox regression model demonstrated that marker decline, pretreatment hCG, and primary site were independent predictors for event-free and overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of serum AFP and/or hCG decline during the first two cycles of therapy was predictive for event-free and overall survival in GCT patients treated with ifosfamide-based salvage therapy. Those patients with an appropriate serum tumor marker decline had a longer event-free and overall survival. When evaluated separately, the rate of hCG decline was more predictive of treatment outcome than decline of AFP. The rate of serum tumor marker regression during the first two cycles of therapy is a clinically useful tool in assessing treatment outcome at an early point in therapy and may thereby identify patients who could benefit from a change to more intensive therapy.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

PubMed2000

Visual estimate of the percentage of carcinoma is an independent predictor of prostate carcinoma recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: The importance of tumor size measurements as predictors of disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy in patients with prostate carcinoma remains somewhat controversial, and many pathologists do not report these measurements routinely. The authors studied the correlation between the visual estimate of the percentage of carcinoma in prostatic tissue from radical prostatectomy specimens and prostate carcinoma recurrence rates in a series of 595 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy. METHODS: A total of 595 men with clinically localized prostate carcinoma were treated by the same surgeon (W.J.C.) from 1993 through 1997. The percentage of carcinoma in radical prostatectomy specimens from these patients was assessed microscopically through visual estimate. The authors used Kaplan-Meier product limit estimates, log-rank statistics, and the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the percentage of carcinoma in the pathologic specimens as predictors of recurrence free survival. RESULTS: Of the 595 patients, 46 (8%) had evidence of tumor recurrence. The mean percentage of carcinoma in the prostatectomy specimen was 11.3% in the group of patients who did not have disease recurrence and 23.8% in the group of patients who did experience disease recurrence. The percentage of carcinoma, preoperative prostate specific antigen levels, tumor differentiation (histologic Gleason grade), and pathologic stage all were significant predictors of disease recurrence according to the Kaplan-Meier method (all log-rank P values < 0.0001). Using the Cox proportional hazards model, controlling for all of these variables, only pathologic tumor stage, Gleason score, and percentage of carcinoma proved to be independent predictors of disease recurrence. In the final model, which included pathologic stage, Gleason score, and percentage of carcinoma, for each 5% increase in the percentage of carcinoma in the surgical specimen, there was an 11% incremental increase in the chance of tumor recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The visual estimate of the percentage of carcinoma in prostatic tissue specimens from patients who undergo radical prostatectomy is a practical, simple, and inexpensive method that provides important prognostic information after radical prostatectomy.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Medical gross anatomy as a predictor of performance on the USMLE Step 1.

Traditional predictors of medical school performance, such as Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores and grade point averages, are often used during the admissions process to help identify the prospective students who are most likely to complete the basic science portion of the curriculum successfully. Here we analyzed the admissions files and student records of 285 first-year medical students who matriculated at the University of California at Davis School of Medicine between 1999 and 2001 to determine if performance in medical gross anatomy is a similar, if not better, predictor of performance on the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 than traditional predictors used by medical school admissions committees. Though MCAT scores and grade point averages were correlated with scores on the USMLE Step 1, only the score on the biological science section of the MCAT was significantly correlated with passing the licensing examination. In contrast, class rank in medical gross anatomy and the score on a gross anatomy comprehensive final examination were correlated both with scores on the USMLE Step 1 and passing the examination. Our results indicate that medical schools should consider performance in medical gross anatomy just as much, if not more, than traditional predictors of medical school performance when trying to identify students who may need more time or tutoring to pass the licensing examination.

Anatomy↗

PubMed2002

Predictors of infection in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have been shown to have an increased susceptibility to the development of infections. The exact causes of this increased risk are unknown, but may relate to immunologic disturbances associated with the disease or to the immunosuppressive effects of agents used in its treatment. This study was undertaken to identify predictors of serious infections among patients with RA. Identification of such factors is the necessary first step in reducing the excess risk of infection in RA. METHODS: Members of a population-based incidence cohort of Rochester, Minnesota residents ages >or=18 years, who had been diagnosed with RA between 1955 and 1994, were followed up longitudinally through their complete medical records until January 1, 2000. We examined potential risk factors for the development of all objectively confirmed (by microbiology or radiology) infections and for infections requiring hospitalization. Potential risk factors included RA severity measures (rheumatoid factor positivity, elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate, extraarticular manifestations of RA, and functional status), comorbidities (diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, and chronic lung disease), and other risk factors for infection (presence of leukopenia, smoking). Predictors were identified using multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS: The 609 RA patients in the cohort had a total followup time of 7,729.7 person-years (mean 12.7 years per patient). A total of 389 patients (64%) had at least 1 infection with objective confirmation, and 290 (48%) had at least 1 infection requiring hospitalization. Increasing age, presence of extraarticular manifestations of RA, leukopenia, and comorbidities (chronic lung disease, alcoholism, organic brain disease, and diabetes mellitus), as well as use of corticosteroids, were strong predictors of infection (P < 0.004) in both univariate and multivariate analyses. Notably, use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs was not associated with increased risk of infection in multivariate analyses, after adjustment for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and disease-related variables. CONCLUSION: We identified a number of strong predictors of infections in a population-based cohort of patients with RA. These results can be used to prospectively identify high-risk patients, who may benefit from closer followup and implementation of preventive strategies.

Adrenal Cortex Hormones↗

PubMed2003

Preoperative predictors of locomotor ability two months after total knee arthroplasty for severe osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify preoperative predictors of locomotor ability 2 months after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: Sixty-five participants scheduled for a first TKA were recruited. The dependent variable was the distance covered during the 6-minute gait test 2 months after TKA. The independent variables, measured before surgery, were grouped into 3 categories: 1). personal; 2). organic system, and 3). capability variables. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the best predictors of the dependent variable. Modified cross-validation of the model combining predictors from the three categories was obtained with 10 random samples derived from the original cohort by resampling with replacement. RESULTS: Predictors were identified in the 3 categories: 1). gender, number of comorbidities, body mass index, 2). knee pain, flexion and strength, lower limb mechanical power, and 3). preoperative 6-minute gait distance. When these variables were modeled together only the preoperative 6-minute gait distance and knee pain and flexion remained significant (adjusted R(2) = 0.66). CONCLUSION: Using variables easily measured before surgery, it is possible to predict with good accuracy locomotor ability 2 months after TKA.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Bone density threshold and other predictors of vertebral fracture in patients receiving oral glucocorticoid therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate predictors of vertebral fractures, including a threshold for bone mineral density (BMD), in patients receiving oral glucocorticoids (GCs). METHODS: Data were obtained from 2 randomized clinical trials (prevention and treatment trials of risedronate) using similar methods, but different inclusion criteria were applied with regard to prior exposure to GCs. Predictors of vertebral fracture in the placebo group were identified using Cox regression with forward selection. The BMD threshold analysis involved a comparison of the 1-year fracture risk in postmenopausal women receiving placebo in the GC trials with that in postmenopausal women not taking GCs in 3 other trials. RESULTS: The study population comprised 306 patients with baseline and 1-year followup data on vertebral fractures (111 receiving placebo and 195 receiving risedronate). In the placebo group, the statistically significant predictors of incident fracture were the baseline lumbar spine BMD (for each 1-point decrease in T score, relative risk [RR] 1.85, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.06-3.21) and the daily GC dose (for each 10-mg dose increase, RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.11-2.36). In the BMD threshold analysis, compared with nonusers of GCs, patients receiving GCs were younger, had a higher BMD at baseline, and had fewer prevalent fractures; nevertheless, the risk of fracture was higher in the GC users compared with nonusers (adjusted RR 5.67, 95% CI 2.57-12.54). The increased risk of fracture was observed in GC users regardless of whether osteoporosis was present. CONCLUSION: The daily, but not cumulative, GC dose was found to be a strong predictor of vertebral fracture in patients receiving GCs. At similar levels of BMD, postmenopausal women taking GCs, as compared with nonusers of GCs, had considerably higher risks of fracture.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗

PubMed2004

Predictors and outcome of renal flares after successful cyclophosphamide treatment for diffuse proliferative lupus glomerulonephritis.

OBJECTIVE: To study the incidence, predictors, and outcome of renal flares after successful cyclophosphamide (CYC) treatment for diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis (DPGN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Between 1988 and 2001, patients with biopsy-proven SLE DPGN who were treated initially with prednisone and CYC were studied. Those who responded to CYC were followed up for the occurrence of renal flares. The cumulative risk, predictors, and outcome of renal flares were evaluated. RESULTS: We studied 189 patients (167 women; and 22 men) with SLE DPGN. All were initially treated with prednisone and CYC (49% orally; 51% by intravenous pulse). At the last dose of CYC, 103 patients (55%) and 52 patients (28%) had achieved complete and partial renal responses, respectively. Azathioprine (AZA) was given as maintenance therapy in 117 patients (75%). After a mean followup of 96.5 months, 59 patients (38%) experienced renal flares (42% nephritic; 58% proteinuric). The median time to relapse was 32 months. The cumulative risk of renal flare was 28% at 36 months and 44% at 60 months. Independent predictors of nephritic flares were persistently low C3 levels after CYC treatment and absence of AZA maintenance therapy. At the last clinic visit, 16 patients (10.3%) had developed doubling of the serum creatinine level (cumulative risk of creatinine doubling 7.4% at 5 years after renal biopsy and 14.3% at 10 years). Ten patients (6.5%) developed end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Renal survival rates at 5 and 10 years were 94.9% and 87.5%, respectively. Increasing histologic chronicity scores, failure to achieve complete response, persistent hypertension after CYC treatment, and nephritic renal flares were unfavorable factors for doubling of the serum creatinine level and for ESRD by univariate analysis. The occurrence of nephritic flares was the only predictor of creatinine doubling by Cox regression analysis. CONCLUSION: In patients with SLE DPGN, renal flares are common despite initial responses to CYC. Nephritic renal flares are associated with a decline in renal function. Maintenance therapy with AZA reduces, but does not completely prevent, renal flares. More effective maintenance treatment for SLE DPGN after an initial response to CYC should be evaluated.

Adult↗