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On-line multi-analyzer monitoring of biomass, glucose and acetate for growth rate control of a Vibrio cholerae fed-batch cultivation.

In situ near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and in-line electronic nose (EN) mapping were used to monitor and control a cholera-toxin producing Vibrio cholerae fed-batch cultivation carried out with a laboratory method as well as with a production method. Prediction models for biomass, glucose and acetate using NIR spectroscopy were developed based on spectral identification and partial-least squares (PLS) regression resulting in high correlation to reference data (standard errors of prediction for biomass, glucose and acetate were 0.20 gl(-1), 0.26 gl(-1) and 0.28 gl(-1)). A compensation algorithm for aerated bioreactor disturbances was integrated in the model computation, which in particular improved the prediction by the biomass model. First, the NIR data were applied together with EN in-line data selected by principal component analysis (PCA) for generating a trajectory representation of the fed-batch cultivation. A correlation between the culture progression and EN signals was demonstrated, which proved to be beneficial in monitoring the culture quality. It was shown that a deviation from a normal cultivation behavior could easily be recognized and that the trajectory was able to alarm a bacterial contamination. Second, the NIR data indicated the potential of predicting the concentration of formed cholera toxin with a model prediction error of 0.020 gl(-1). Third, the on-line biomass prediction based on the NIR model was used to control the overflow metabolism acetate formation of the V. cholerae culture. The controller compared actual specific growth rate as estimated from the prediction with the critical acetate formation growth rate, and from that difference adjusted the glucose feed rate.

Acetates↗

Gender differences in outcomes in an HMO-based substance abuse treatment program.

This study examined gender differences in treatment outcomes and outcomes predictors among 155 men and 81 women attending a gender-sensitive substance abuse treatment program. Bivariate analyses indicated women improved more than men in social/family and daily functioning domains, but differences disappeared after controlling for baseline characteristics. Multivariate models predicting treatment outcomes revealed that, across Addiction Severity Index domains, outcomes for men were predicted primarily by mental health and medical conditions, severity of the substance abuse problem, and treatment com- pletion. For women, in addition to treatment completion, outcomes were more likely to be predicted by social, socio-demographic, and life-history characteristics. For abstinence outcomes, women who completed treatment were 9 times as likely to be abstinent at 7-month follow-up as other women; men who completed were 3 times more likely to be abstinent than other men. Women with more severe psychiatric status and those who felt their life was out of control were less likely to be abstinent, as were men who lived alone. Clinicians targeting such factors differentially for men and women may enhance the effectiveness of treatment.

Adult↗

[Family life strategies and their relation with malnutrition in children under 2 years old].

OBJECTIVE: To identify the role of family life strategies on malnutrition in children aged 6-23 months of age. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This case-control study was conducted in 1998 in the municipality of Teolocholco, State of Tlaxcala, Mexico, among families with children aged 6-23 months of age. The sample was conformed by 105 cases and 210 controls. Family life strategies were grouped into five types: family composition, means and distribution of family income, family and social networks, and life preservation strategies. Malnutrition was classified according to height for age. Data were analyzed using logistic regression to obtain odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Data were collected from 605 families, for a total of 445 controls and 160 cases. The predictive model included mother's schooling, overcrowding, time elapsed between childbirths, per capita monthly income, and time devoted to child-rearing activities. CONCLUSIONS: Family life strategies determine children's nutritional status; understanding the influence of the family on the children's health status is necessary to develop effective programs aimed at improving the nutritional status of children.

Case-Control Studies↗

What predicts change in marital interaction over time? A study of alternative models.

This is a report on what predicts the deterioration of affective marital interaction over a 4-year period. Four models were compared for their ability to predict Time-2 dysfunctional marital interaction (a set of reliable predictors of marital dissolution). These four models were: (1) baseline physiology at Time-1; (2) interaction physiology at Time-1; (3) a balance model based on the ratio of positivity to negativity at Time-1; and, (4) cognitions about the relationship operationalized from our coding of the Oral History Interview. All four models predicted Time-2 dysfunctional marital interaction. All four models were also able to predict change, operationalized as predicting Time-2 interaction, controlling for Time-1 interaction, that is, using a covariance regression analysis. The most powerful model in predicting change was the balance ratio model.

Adult↗

A theoretical study of in vivo lesion repair using a controlled-release device.

A theoretical model of lesion remineralization predicts that in vivo caries repair can be effected in a five-day period by means of a controlled- and sustained-release device containing calcium, phosphate, and fluoride. The calculations detail an 80% repair before the remineralization process stops. However, the fluoridated hydroxyapatite formed is calculated to be about 20% more resistant to future attack than is hydroxyapatite, making effective repair complete. Optimal flux (W) conditions for repair of 100 microns lesions are WCa = 1.0 X 10(-6) kg/m2s, stoichiometric phosphate, and WF = 2.0 X 10(-9) kg/m2s.

Adsorption↗

Evidence from Amazonian forests is consistent with isohydric control of leaf water potential.

Climate modelling studies predict that the rain forests of the Eastern Amazon basin are likely to experience reductions in rainfall of up to 50% over the next 50-100 years. Efforts to predict the effects of changing climate, especially drought stress, on forest gas exchange are currently limited by uncertainty about the mechanism that controls stomatal closure in response to low soil moisture. At a through-fall exclusion experiment in Eastern Amazonia where water was experimentally excluded from the soil, we tested the hypothesis that plants are isohydric, that is, when water is scarce, the stomata act to prevent leaf water potential from dropping below a critical threshold level. We made diurnal measurements of leaf water potential (psi 1), stomatal conductance (g(s)), sap flow and stem water potential (psi stem) in the wet and dry seasons. We compared the data with the predictions of the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model, which embeds the isohydric hypothesis within its stomatal conductance algorithm. The model inputs for meteorology, leaf area index (LAI), soil water potential and soil-to-leaf hydraulic resistance (R) were altered between seasons in accordance with measured values. No optimization parameters were used to adjust the model. This 'mechanistic' model of stomatal function was able to explain the individual tree-level seasonal changes in water relations (r2 = 0.85, 0.90 and 0.58 for psi 1, sap flow and g(s), respectively). The model indicated that the measured increase in R was the dominant cause of restricted water use during the dry season, resulting in a modelled restriction of sap flow four times greater than that caused by reduced soil water potential. Higher resistance during the dry season resulted from an increase in below-ground resistance (including root and soil-to-root resistance) to water flow.

Brazil↗

Hospital falls: development of a predictive model for clinical practice.

A retrospective case-control study related to falls was conducted at an 1,120-bed acute care tertiary hospital. The case (fall) sample consisted of 102 falls and 236 control (nonfall) charts during a 1-month period. An instrument developed by Hendrich (1988) was modified for use in the study. Demographic data and risk factors were recorded. Descriptive statistics included risk factor percentages for each sample and the corresponding univariate relative risks. Logistic regression was used to develop a multivariate risk factor model with seven risk factors. The significant risk factors were recent history of falls, depression, altered elimination patterns, dizziness or vertigo, primary cancer diagnosis, confusion, and altered mobility. The adjusted relative risks were converted to risk points to be used to assess a patient's level of fall risk. Within the data set, a sensitivity of 77% (79 of 102) and specificity of 72% (169 of 236) were calculated. The model was cross-validated in a 1987 data set with a sensitivity of 83% (59 of 71) and specificity of 66% (106 of 161).

Accidental Falls↗

Mandibular growth prediction: mean growth increments versus mathematical models.

The aim of this study was to compare growth predictions obtained by adding mean annual velocities with predictions derived from a polynomial model of the population's growth curve. Given the child's previous measures at 11, 12 and/or 13 years of age, the cephalometric distance sella-gnathion at 15 years was estimated. Based on a sample of 223 boys and girls, the root mean square error decreased from 0.28 cm (males) and 0.18 cm (females) at 11 years, to 0.19 cm (males) and 0.12 cm (females) at 13 years. Root mean square errors were similar between methods, which was due to high correlations between measures across ages. Significantly, predictions based on mean increments were biased. They often over or underestimate growth for children who are larger and smaller than average. The observed bias was due to expected changes of variance associated with growth, which unconditional methods of prediction cannot control for. Predictions derived from growth models are conditional upon the child's size and are, therefore, unbiased.

Adolescent↗

First-order kinetics of muscle oxygen consumption, and an equivalent proportionality between QO2 and phosphorylcreatine level. Implications for the control of respiration.

In frog sartorius muscle, after a tetanus at 20 degrees C, during which an impulse-like increase occurs in the rate of ATP hydrolysis, the rate of O2 consumption (QO2) reaches a peak relatively quickly and then declines monoexponentially, with a time constant not dependent on the tetanus duration (tau = 2.6 min in Rana pipiens and 2.1 min in Rana temporaria). To a good approximation, these kinetics are those of a first-order impulse response, and the scheme of reactions that couple O2 consumption to extramitochondrial ATP hydrolysis thus behaves as a first-order system. It is first deduced and then demonstrated directly that while QO2(t) is monoexponential, it changes in parallel with the levels of creatine and phosphorylcreatine, with proportionality constants +/- 1/tau p, where p is the P/O2 ratio in vivo. From this, it is further deduced that the mitochondrial creatine kinase (CK) reaction is pseudo-first order in vivo. The relationship between [creatine] and QO2 predicted by published models of the control of respiration is markedly different from that actually observed. As shown here, the first-order kinetics of QO2 are consistent with the hypothesis that respiration is rate-limited by the mitochondrial CK reaction; this has as a corollary the "creatine shuttle" hypothesis.

Adenosine Triphosphate↗

Linear quadratic model compared with TDF and TSD concepts for malignancy of cervix uteri treated with twice daily fractionated schedules.

PURPOSE: Various types of fractionation schemes have been tried in recent year with the objective of improving tumor control rate because conventional fractionation schedules do not always produce optimum results. To compare the radiobiological effectiveness and the gain in the therapeutic ratio due to various fractionation schemes, empirical formulae such as NSD, TDF, CRE and TSD were introduced and used despite of many short comings. Recent linear quadratic (LQ) model is claimed to be able to predict the radiobiological responses of tumor as well as normal tissues more accurately. In the present study various empirical models are compared. PATIENTS AND METHOD: We treated malignancy of cervix uteri by twice daily fractionation schedules of 1.2 Gy/fraction, 1.4 Gy/fraction and 1.6 Gy/fraction with interfraction interval of four to six hours. The percentage tumor regression was estimated from weekly clinical observations and the TDFt, TSD and ERDt concepts were applied to the data and the predictions are compared. RESULTS: It was observed that TDFt and TSD concepts predicts equally well (within +/- 3%) the probable tumor regression as predicted by LQ concept. CONCLUSIONS: Till precise values of various parameters of LQ model are known, the TDF and TSD models can be used to predict probable tumor control rates within reasonable accuracy.

Carcinoma, Squamous Cell↗

Natural history of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in a database population. Validation of a scoring system and a model for survival prediction.

Over 1200 patients with motor neuron disease have been carefully diagnosed, followed, and included in a detailed database delineating characteristics of the disease. Of these patients, 831 were identified as exhibiting typical, sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The progression of the disease in these patients has been followed with our scoring system, and the ALS score was verified as a significant covariate of survival. Age at first symptom, delay from first symptom to entering ALS clinic, and rate of change of respiratory function were also identified as significant covariates of survival. These measures, applied to the Cox proportional hazards model, were used to develop a mathematical model for prediction of survival time in ALS, which proved highly accurate for the 80% of patients at intermediate risk. For those patients, a second model was developed which accurately predicts, after an initial period of observation, the time over which ALS patients will decline a set number of points in total ALS score. Such validation permits initial trials for drug therapies in ALS by comparison of relatively small groups of treated patients to this historical control group, based on the model of predicted time to a particular decrement in total ALS score.

Adult↗

Food insecurity affects school children's academic performance, weight gain, and social skills.

Food insecurity has been associated with diverse developmental consequences for U.S. children primarily from cross-sectional studies. We used longitudinal data to investigate how food insecurity over time related to changes in reading and mathematics test performance, weight and BMI, and social skills in children. Data were from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort, a prospective sample of approximately 21,000 nationally representative children entering kindergarten in 1998 and followed through 3rd grade. Food insecurity was measured by parent interview using a modification of the USDA module in which households were classified as food insecure if they reported > or =1 affirmative response in the past year. Households were grouped into 4 categories based on the temporal occurrence of food insecurity in kindergarten and 3rd grade. Children's academic performance, height, and weight were assessed directly. Children's social skills were reported by teachers. Analyses examined the effects of modified food insecurity on changes in child outcomes using lagged, dynamic, and difference (i.e., fixed-effects) models and controlling for child and household contextual variables. In lagged models, food insecurity was predictive of poor developmental trajectories in children before controlling for other variables. Food insecurity thus serves as an important marker for identifying children who fare worse in terms of subsequent development. In all models with controls, food insecurity was associated with outcomes, and associations differed by gender. This study provides the strongest empirical evidence to date that food insecurity is linked to specific developmental consequences for children, and that these consequences may be both nutritional and nonnutritional.

Attitude to Health↗

Identification of the Shine-Dalgarno sequence required for expression and translational control of the pyrC gene in Escherichia coli K-12.

Expression of the pyrC gene in Escherichia coli K-12 is regulated by a translational control mechanism in which CTP (and perhaps GTP) pool sizes determine the selection of alternative transcriptional start sites at the pyrC promoter. High CTP levels cause transcription to start primarily at a site that directs the synthesis of untranslatable pyrC transcripts. These transcripts form a hairpin at their 5' ends that blocks ribosome binding to the Shine-Dalgarno (SD) sequence. The pyrC ribosome binding site is unusual in that it contains two potential SD sequences, designated SD1 and SD2, which are located 11 and 4 nucleotides upstream of the translational initiation codon, respectively. In this study, we examined the functions of these two SD sequences in translational initiation. Mutations that inactivate either SD1 or SD2 were constructed and incorporated separately into a pyrC::lacZ protein fusion. The effects of the mutations on pyrC::lacZ expression, regulation, and transcript levels were determined. The results indicate that SD1 is the only functional pyrC SD sequence. The SD2 mutation did cause a small reduction in expression, but this effect appeared to be due to a decrease in transcript stability. In addition, we constructed a mutation that introduces a long spacer region between the hairpin at the 5' end of the pyrC transcript and a new pyrC SD sequence. As predicted by the model for translational control, this mutation caused constitutive expression of a pyrC::lacZ protein fusion.

Base Sequence↗

Use of a physiologic pharmacokinetic model of glucose homeostasis for assessment of performance requirements for improved insulin therapies.

Methods are presented for assessing insulin therapies using a physiologic pharmacokinetic model of glucose homeostasis in man. The model is composed of simultaneous differential equations that represent physiologic compartments and spaces in which glucose and insulin are distributed and undergo metabolic reactions. The model is used to simulate clinical experiments in which blood glucose concentration is controlled by artificial device therapies. Predictions of the theoretical model for responses of normal and diabetic individuals to standard intravenous and oral glucose tolerance tests are compared to clinical data. Reasonable agreement is obtained between predictions of the computer simulations and clinical data for normal individuals. The responses of a diabetic person to oral glucose tolerance tests are simulated by removal of the pancreas from the glucose homeostasis model and introduction of insulin into the model by a prescribed therapy. Model simulations reaffirm expectations concerning the poor blood glucose control attainable by intramuscular insulin injection. Simulations of blood glucose regulation by an artificial pancreas using closed-loop feedback control for controlling insulin delivery rate reveal hyperinsulinemia that results in a net shift in the deposition of a glucose load from liver to peripheral tissues. Simulations of this system in which the time delay for glucose measurement is varied from 1.5 to 30 min show that increases in sensor delay result in progressive loss in glucose regulation, exacerbation of hyperinsulinemia, and increased insulin requirements.

Blood Glucose↗

Transconjunctival suture adjustment for initial intraocular pressure control after trabeculectomy.

PURPOSE: In an experimental human eye model of trabeculectomy, scleral flap suture adjustment allows predictable control of intraocular pressure (IOP). This approach had not previously been described in clinical use; we present a case series with the application of this technique. METHODS: A prospective, non-comparative interventional case series of consecutive patients undergoing trabeculectomy. Forty trabeculectomies were performed using a 3 mm x 4 mm scleral flap with two apical adjustable 10-0 nylon sutures under a fornix-based conjunctival flap. Intraoperatively the scleral flap sutures were tied tightly to appose the edges of the flap. All trabeculectomies were augmented with antimetabolite intraoperatively. On day one, patients with an IOP greater than 15 mm Hg had their suture tension adjusted to lower their IOP to a target range (10 to 15 mm Hg). Major outcome measures were IOP before and after adjustment and success at last follow-up (IOP < or = 15 mm Hg on no glaucoma medication and no clinically significant complications) without and with adjunctive needling. Other outcomes measured were postoperative complications, bleb needling, final bleb morphology, and visual acuity change from pre-operation to final follow-up. RESULTS: Average day one IOP was 14.8 mm Hg (standard deviation (SD) 7.8). Fourteen patients had a day one IOP over 15 mm Hg and underwent suture adjustment, lowering IOP to between 10 and 15 mm Hg. (Mean post adjustment IOP was 10.7 mm Hg (SD 3.6)). One patient had a conjunctival tear intraoperatively. Four patients had transient wound leaks. No patients had shallow anterior chambers. All but four had diffuse blebs at last follow-up. Success rate without any further surgical intervention was 75%, and success rate with adjunctive needling was 100%. The mean duration of follow-up was 6.3 months (range 1-12 months). CONCLUSION: The approach of tying scleral flap sutures tightly with transconjunctival adjustment of sutures if the IOP is greater than 15 mm Hg on day one allows excellent control of early postoperative IOP.

Adult↗

Predictions of the growth model for normal chicken growth.

The model of growth control advanced by Weiss and Kavanau has been further evaluated with an I.B.M. 7090 computer. Predictions for the concentration of growth-inhibiting substances and their quantitative distribution in the animal are in good agreement with known developmental changes. Results are being used to predict the course of compensatory organ growth in the immature animal.

Animals↗

A model of insulin delivery by a controlled release micropump.

A model has been developed to describe the delivery of insulin from a controlled release micropump (CRM). Basal delivery was provided by diffusion due to a concentration difference driving force across the CRM. This was modelled by considering the CRM to be a series of one-dimensional steady-state diffusion resistances. This delivery model was used to size prototypes and identify the piston, foam and the pump outlet as the controlling resistances to basal insulin transport. Augmented delivery by the CRM was achieved by repeated compression of a foam disk by a mild steel piston which was driven by a solenoid (tested voltage range 0-173 V DC; 5 msec "on" time; frequency 20-40 min-1). The increased delivery was attributed to the combination of mixing inside the pump barrel and displacement of barrel contents into the downstream reservoir. This action was approximated by a three-compartment model, which considered the CRM to consist of a well-mixed upstream reservoir and pump barrel (with a downstream reservoir) separated by two resistances: a constant upstream membrane resistance, (KmAm)-1, and a variable downstream mixing rate resistance, (Qd)-1. A least squares fit of the model to experimental data showed Qd to increase with the cube of the force on the piston and linearly with the compression frequency. In agreement with experimental results, the model predicted the upstream membrane to be rate controlling only at augmented pump resistances close to the value (KmAm)-1. These models were used to design an improved prototype (VIII) which is now being evaluated in vivo in pancreatectomized dogs for its efficacy in restoring and sustaining normoglycemia.

Animals↗