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PubMed2002

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece.

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗

PubMed2001

Hybrid expert system for decision supporting in the medical area: complexity and cognitive computing.

This paper proposes a hybrid expert system (HES) to minimise some complexity problems pervasive to the artificial intelligence such as: the knowledge elicitation process, known as the bottleneck of expert systems; the model choice for knowledge representation to code human reasoning; the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the topology used in the connectionist approach; the difficulty to obtain the explanation on how the network arrived to a conclusion. Two algorithms applied to developing of HES are also suggested. One of them is used to train the fuzzy neural network and the other to obtain explanations on how the fuzzy neural network attained a conclusion. To overcome these difficulties the cognitive computing was integrated to the developed system. A case study is presented (e.g. epileptic crisis) with the problem definition and simulations. Results are also discussed.

Algorithms↗

PubMed1994

Development and evaluation of a computer expert system for the management of fetal distress.

The general lack of specialist obstetricians in a developing country such as Malaysia prompted us to develop a computer expert system for the management of fetal distress in rural hospitals. It was based on accepted production rules and implemented on a microcomputer. The clinical prototype was evaluated by 8 specialist obstetricians and 21 non-specialist doctors involved in obstetric care. The initial impression was that this type of expert system may help in diagnosis, decision-making and teaching.

Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Expert systems: a new technology for increasing decision makers' effectiveness and efficiency.

The two systems described above illustrate ways in which expert systems can be used in managing health services. These examples demonstrate how unskilled persons, clerks, or health consumers can obtain advice or decisions equivalent to the results of an interview with an experienced specialist. The savings in specialists' time is an obvious benefit. Increased accessibility, owing to the ability to use the system concurrently in many locations, will enhance the quality of the service. The value of these improvements in service delivery exceeds the relatively small cost of developing and implementing the system. The other advantages described are a bonus.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

PubMed1993

An expert system for culture-based infection control surveillance.

Hospital-acquired infections represent a significant cause of prolonged inpatient days and additional hospital charges. We describe an expert system, called GERMWATCHER, which applies the Centers for Disease Control's National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance culture-based criteria for detecting nosocomial infections. GERMWATCHER has been deployed at Barnes Hospital, a large tertiary-care teaching hospital, since February 1993. We describe the Barnes Hospital infection control environment, the expert system design, and a predeployment performance evaluation. We then compare our system to other efforts in computer-based infection control.

Cells, Cultured↗

PubMed2006

A fuzzy expert system design for analysis of body sounds and design of an unique electronic stethoscope (development of HILSA kit).

In this paper we have developed a fuzzy expert system (FES) for different sounds produced by different organs in the human body. We have also constructed a unique electronic stethoscope. The human body sounds produced by different organs like heart, lungs and intestine were analyzed. The doctor provided the data and relation between variables chosen for each organ sound. Using this information a rule base for fuzzy expert system was built. Such FES helps the medical doctor in arriving at appropriate decision in different difficult clinical situations. The examination of body sounds was done using conventional stethoscope (CS) and electronic stethoscope (ES), which was uniquely designed for this study. We have found that unique stethoscope developed by us is far superior to conventional stethoscope by its overall performance.

Algorithms↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Validation of the VITEK2 and the Advance Expert System with a collection of Enterobacteriaceae harboring extended spectrum or inhibitor resistant beta-lactamases.

The susceptibility testing accuracy of the VITEK2 system and the ability of the Advance Expert System (AES) to provide interpretive readings were evaluated against 86 extended spectrum (ESBL) and 6 inhibitor-resistant-TEM (IRT) beta-lactamases producing Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates. VITEK2 MICs of 12 beta-lactams were compared with those obtained by the standard NCCLS microdilution technique. The overall essential agreement ( +/- 1 log dilution) was 87.8%. Discrepancies were mainly observed with cefepime (30.3% of total number of discrepancies), ceftazidime (21.2%), and cefotaxime (15.1%). MIC discrepancies were slightly higher in CTX-M- (14.4%) than in TEM- (12.5%) or SHV- (11.9%) type ESBL producers and were rare in IRT producers (1.4%). Overall interpretive agreement was 92.5% and minor, major, and very major errors were 5.4%, 1.7%, and 2.1%, respectively. The AES was able to identify an ESBL phenotype in 85 out of 86 isolates (98.8%) and an IRT phenotype in all 6 isolates harboring these enzymes, thus reducing very major errors to 0.9%. The VITEK2 system, in conjunction with the AES software, is a reliable tool for detection of ESBL or IRT producing Enterobacteriaceae isolates.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

PubMed1998

Evaluating expert systems: how to ensure an independent assessment.

Evaluation of an expert system provides unique challenges in an organizational setting. Often the proposed system is provided by an independent supplier who is not in a position to provide an unbiased assessment of the effectiveness or merit of the system. Even when the system is developed by personnel within the same firm or by the users themselves, these individuals, being instrumental in the design and development of the system, lack the autonomy necessary to evaluate the system. This article describes one evaluation process which was applied by the authors. It is an adaptable approach which provides the needed independent assessment without being excessively cumbersome or difficult to administer.

Contract Services↗

PubMed1988

Expert system for pathologists to generate an image analysis program for tumor grading.

The pathologist is usually not an expert in engineering or image analysis. We have, therefore, developed an expert system, entitled PARTICLE, to help pathologists producing image analysis programs by which to tackle problems in histological pathology, including tumor grading. The PARTICLE expert system is based on karyometric data, using the AMBA/R dialogue and programming system.

Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted↗

PubMed2000

From a urinalysis strategy to an evaluated urine protein expert system.

Urine single protein analysis has developed into a routine method for the screening and monitoring of kidney diseases. In order to support clinical decision making by an interpretative report, a urine protein expert system (UPES) has been developed. Based on a database containing more than 500 excretion patterns, a modular knowledge base was extracted in production rules and implemented in a modern expert system shell. The resulting interpretation system has been thoroughly verified and validated. After the need of interpretation of the complex findings had been documented in a survey, its usability in routine and its knowledge representation was evaluated in 11 hospitals. A user conference confirmed a high quality level of the reports proposed by UPES. It revealed that the problem of automatic data transfer as well as the common definition of diagnostic terms by laboratorians and clinicians play a crucial role for the use of knowledge-based systems in laboratory medicine.

Artificial Intelligence↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Approach to a hospital-based application of a medical expert system.

CADIAG-2 is a data-driven fuzzy medical expert system built for computer-based consultation in internal medicine. It has been integrated into the medical information system WAMIS of the Vienna General Hospital. Through the integration, CADIAG-2 is able to access patient data and laboratory test results already collected in the central patient database of WAMIS. CADIAG-2 operates in two subsequent phases: (1) as an automatic screening procedure for detecting pathological states in the patient, for generating diagnostic hypotheses, and for proposing further useful examinations; and (2) as an on-line consultation system for the clinician to assist him in clarifying patients' disorders completely and in great detail. At present, CADIAG-2 is subject to extended clinical trials. There are four application areas: rheumatic diseases, pancreatic diseases, gall bladder and bile duct diseases and colon diseases. First results on the performance of CADIAG-2 based on the evaluation of about 500 cases were obtained. In this paper, the principal goals, main components and concepts of CADIAG-2, and the experience gained until now are discussed.

Artificial Intelligence↗

PubMed1984

Languages, DBMSs, and expert systems. Software for nurse decision making.

This article sheds some light on the task of selecting software for decision making by nurse administrators. The basics of software are described, defining and distinguishing software, firmware, programs, languages, and systems (including database management and expert systems). A discussion of evolving trends and a short discussion of how to go about selecting software systems to meet your needs are included.

Administrative Personnel↗

PubMed1995

[An expert system for the diagnosis of intraocular pressure disorders].

PURPOSE: This expert system (ES) is designed to avoid the four types of diagnosis errors: by omission or by confusion both of which may occur when collecting signs and symptoms and when analyzed data. This ES uses a thesaurus containing 42 classical and objective signs and a comprehensive library. For a given case report, it provides the practitioner with a positive diagnosis, and if possible, one or several etiologies taking into account all the data known about intraocular disorders. METHODS: This ES is run on a PC-compatible computer with 640 KB RAM and without hard drive. The 90 KB program is written in compiled Basic. After checking the case record to rule out nonsenses, the logic considers every sign of the case record as equivalent. Likewise, in the first stage all syndromes are considered of equal likelihood. The syndromic diagnosis is set by identification. Comparisons of prevalence interfere, when needed, in a second phase, within the framework of etiological diagnosis. RESULTS: When tested on a set of 180 cases records combined with 115 cases extracted from the literature corresponding to more than 1,900 diaagnoses, this ES yielded 100% correct positive and differential diagnoses, thus validating the logial hypotheses. Probability of error by omission was less than a 3% and probability of error by confusion was well below 0.1%. Besides, the logical analysis shelds light on the intellectual mechanisms of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This ES is user-friendly, easy to update and can answer clinical problems the ophthalmologist has to cope with in diagnosis and therapy of intraocular pressure disorders.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed1997

Determining an appropriate clinical problem for expert system development in the neonatal intensive care unit.

The purpose of this pilot study was to demonstrate the use of the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) to identify a clinical problem for expert system (ES) development. NGT is a research method that allows individual judgments about a problem to be combined effectively. Problem identification is the necessary first step for the development of an expert system for use by neonatal nurse practitioners (NNPs) caring for neonates in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Five NNPs identified 21 clinical problems encountered when caring for infants in the NICU and reduced these to the 5 most amenable to ES development. Of these 5 problems, fluid management in the very low birthweight (VLBW) infant was chosen for projected ES development.

Data Collection↗

PubMed2006

Computer expert systems for African-American smokers in physicians offices: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Stage-based computer expert systems (CES), delivered in physician offices, may offer unique opportunities to combine high participation and high efficacy, resulting in a high public health impact. Applying this technology in settings serving low-income African-American smokers, with the addition of practical tools for stress reduction, may help to reduce disparities in morbidity and mortality from smoking-related diseases. METHODS: Ninety-eight African-American smokers were recruited from a publicly funded, continuity care clinic waiting room to a study of computer interactive feedback and stress reduction audiotapes. The study was designed to assess: participation and retention rates; acceptability of both the computer expert system and the audiotapes; the fit of the transtheoretical model for the target population; and the 6-month shift in stages of change. RESULTS: Overall, 55.6% of invited smokers participated, 75.5% were seen at all three observation points. The CES and the audiotape were rated as highly interesting, relevant, and new, and most participants tried them. The predictable relationship between stage and decisional balance was reproduced in this low income African-American population. Significant stage progression occurred from baseline to 3 months (P = 0.011), from 3 to 6 months (P = 0.0001), and from baseline to 6 months (P = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: These data support the feasibility, acceptability and potential efficacy of stage-tailored computer interactive feedback plus stress reduction intervention delivered at the point of service to low-income African-Americans.

Black or African American↗

PubMed1985

[PROTIS, an expert system applied to the treatment of non-insulin-dependent diabetes. Evaluation of its efficacy].

PROTIS is an expert system devised to help general practitioners in the treatment of diabetes. It provides weighted results in ranking order from the most indicated to the most contra-indicated treatment. The reliability of PROTIS was tested comparatively by asking the system and two diabetologists involved in its design to analyze 250 clinical cases. The therapeutic advice given by PROTIS was considered satisfactory in 91.2% of the cases and erroneous, though without vital consequences, in 4.4%. The system was unable to propose any treatment in 4.4% of the cases. Most errors or non-responses could be corrected. This evaluation showed that PROTIS faithfully reproduces the reasoning of diabetologists and could serve as an example of what an expert system could do for the general practitioner.

Artificial Intelligence↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[An expert system for choosing prostheses for the lower extremities (hip) and assessing the quality of the prosthesis. I].

The authors describe the structure, characteristic features and experience gained with the employment of an expert system for the choice of hip prostheses (in cases of unilateral amputation) and assessment of the prosthetics quality. Word the requirements for hardware and software, present functional subsystems corresponding to certain interrelated stages of prosthetics. A variant has been devised of an appropriate training expert system with a profound representation of intelligence in an object area.

Expert Systems↗

PubMed1997

The development and implementation of an expert system for the analysis of umbilical cord blood.

An assessment of neonatal outcome may be obtained from analysis of blood in the umbilical cord of the infant immediately after delivery. This can provide information on the health of the newborn infant, guide requirements for neonatal care, and is recommended practice of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. However, there are problems with the technique. Samples frequently contain errors in one or more of the important parameters, preventing accurate interpretation and many clinical staff lack the expert knowledge required to interpret error-free results. In this paper the development and implementation of an expert system to overcome these difficulties is described. The expert system validates results, provides a textual interpretation and archives all results to database for audit, research and medico-legal purposes. The system has now been in routine clinical use for over 3 years in Plymouth, and has also been installed in several other hospitals in the UK. Results are presented in which the types and frequency of errors are established and the user acceptance of the system is determined.

Expert Systems↗