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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources
PubMed1979

Forecasting the onset of a scrub typhus epidemic in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan using daily maximum temperatures.

Daily maximum atmospheric temperatures were used to forecast the seasonal onset of scrub typhus in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan. The day of the year on which the temperature first reached 30 degrees C was selected as the predictive base. Predictions for 1977 closely matched observed events. The model provides an easy and effective means to forecast the start of scrub typhus epidemics in the Pescadores Islands and could be used for such practical purposes as determining when prophylactic antibiotics should be administered to subjects whose risk of infection with Rickettsia tsutsugamushi is high.

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed1978

Automated purchasing: Forecasts to determine stock levels and print orders.

An automated purchasing system to optimize inventory levels of frozen foods, including meat items, while minimizing stock outages, was developed and implemented. Menu item forecast data were coordinated with on-hand quantities to automate the calculation of order quantities and printing purchase requisitions. The model selected also incorporated: (a) Safety stock level, (b) accumulated forecasts, and (c) accumulated orders already placed. The project was smoothly integrated into an on-going computer-assisted management system. All programs functioned as planned; computer documents were complete and accurate. The system design was retained for use in the foodservice operation.

Computers↗
PubMed1992

Forecasting the extent of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

This paper has a dual objective: (1) to describe the current status of the structure of a newly developed model system to generate a wide span of U.S. HIV/AIDS estimates; and (2) to implement that system through the development of a dataset of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence, by stage, in the U.S. for a range of past and future years. There are many uncertainties regarding the anticipated effects of HIV/AIDS; examination of many of these effects indicates multiple societal difficulties. The characteristic of AIDS-growth is that of a long-delayed but inexorable disabling morbidity "taking off" in 1991-1992 from an HIV population widely thought to be 1.0-1.5 million spread throughout the Nation. Although widely dispersed, its impact, even at this early stage of growth, is to endanger the health and social support systems of our urban centers. The spread of AIDS cases into the smaller cities and rural counties indicates that those problems will not be limited to our major cities. This paper provides new and purposely pessimistic estimates of the levels of prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS for future years, based on U.S. AIDS cases reported. Although these numbers are essentially upper bounds, their values are consistent with the upper sides of some recent broad band projections released in early Summer 1989 by the U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO). However, our estimation has generated data within a more proscribed range. A first set of forecasts has been provided to the State of Virginia's Department of Health for their use in statewide resource planning. The United States and the world face a severe HIV pandemic in the coming decade. The certainty of the threat is acknowledged by all of the major private and public medical authorities and institutions. Yet, to date, no official projection of the emergence, the level, and the sweep of the epidemic has been accepted by the medical community. And, there is certainly little agreement on the impact on the delivery of health care services in the United States and Canada, as well as throughout the world. On 26 June 1989, the U.S. GAO released a report that concluded, in part, that the Federal government's official data [e.g. from the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) of 12 May 1989] were greatly understating the epidemic's extent. Specifically, the CDC's estimate of 185,000-320,000 (cumulative) cases of AIDS expected to be reported by the end of 1991 contrasted with GAO's estimate of 300,000-480,000.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1983

Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney, Australia.

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.

Australia↗
PubMed1986

Forecasting the German population with Monte Carlo methods.

"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting the [West] German population by letting the fertility, mortality and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care."

Developed Countries↗
PubMed2026

AI-enabled viral genomics: from virus discovery to host prediction and emerging variant forecasting.

The rapid expansion of metagenomic sequencing has generated vast repositories of viral sequence data that far outpace our capacity to interpret them using conventional approaches. Highly divergent sequences, sparse functional annotation, and taxonomically uneven sampling present fundamental challenges for reference-dependent methods, which lose sensitivity precisely for novel and understudied viruses with high public health relevance. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a new avenue to address these challenges by enabling predictive inference from viral genomes and proteins while reducing dependence on sequence similarity. In this Review, we discuss representative advances in AI for virus discovery, taxonomic classification and functional annotation, prediction of host range and zoonotic potential, and efforts toward forecasting emerging variants. These advances are transforming viral genomics from a largely descriptive discipline into one with increasing predictive capability. We also critically assess the major challenges that constrain current approaches, including the availability of high-quality and representative datasets, rigorous model evaluation, biological interpretability and responsible governance for increasingly capable AI models.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed1998

Combining probabilistic and subjective assessments of error to provide realistic appraisals of demographic forecast uncertainty: Alho's approach.

"With increasing interest in forecast uncertainty, there is an evolving concern with assessing the degree of certainty we can attach to uncertainty itself. This concern is the subject of recent work by Juha Alho.... I examine [his] approach systematically and draw general conclusions about its efficacy. Suggestions for improvement are made."

Evaluation Studies as Topic↗
PubMed1985

Economic-demographic models for forecasting interregional migration.

"A class of spatial economic-demographic forecasting models is proposed. The models combine elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models. A base-period probability structure is modified by the changing relative distribution of economic opportunity. Estimation issues are addressed, and an empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s is described. It is contended that the framework represents a merger of past demographic and economic modeling traditions in a spatial interaction framework."

Americas↗
PubMed1993

The role of trans-Tasman migration in forecasting the New Zealand population.

"This article argues that, for the short to medium term, [New Zealand population] projections can be improved upon by adopting econometric methodologies which take explicitly into account the demographic-economic two-way interaction in certain components of international migration. Specifically, the article summarizes research on the causes and consequences of trans-Tasman migration, which is the dominant component of the volatility in New Zealand's net migration. It is shown how these findings can aid population forecasting."

Demography↗
PubMed1987

Forecasting the reorganization of the settlement pattern in a region of formation of a territorial-production complex.

The author investigates the formation and development of territorial-production complexes (TPCs) in the USSR. "The main issue in preliminary studies for a TPC is to determine the long-term industrial and territorial structure of the TPC, as well as to set the sequence of priorities for the construction and start-up of plants in specialized sectors complementing and serving the various industries making up the TPC. Forecasts [must be] made for the size of the population and the dimensions of the industrial and social infrastructure subserving the industrial units in the TPC to be expected by the end of a specified period of time. Our purpose is to determine the dynamics of the above-enumerated elements of the system, as well as the main population growth parameters of all cities and rural areas in a specified region."

Demography↗
PubMed1988

The use of sigmoids in modelling and forecasting human populations.

"The aim of this paper is to present a review that might justify giving further consideration to the use of sigmoids in contemporary population modelling and forecasting. To do this a brief account is given of the historical development of these models, pointing out why demographers have viewed these trend models with scepticism. Most of the paper is devoted to showing that, despite these criticisms, sigmoid-based trend models are useful practical tools for the demographer." Examples using data for various countries are presented.

Demography↗
PubMed1982

[Population forecasts for the Netherlands after 1980].

"This article deals with the results of the most recent population forecasts for the Netherlands, compiled by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Some attention is also given to the methods and the assumptions that were used." The projections include three variants regarding marriages, births, and international migration. (summary in ENG)

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1982

[The nuptiality model in the 1980-based population forecasts].

"This article describes the nuptiality model that was used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands, released by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics...in December 1981." Particular attention is paid to the need for a realistic two-sex marriage model. A model is presented that the author suggests is an improvement on the British model on which it is based, in that it uses originally specified one-sex nuptiality rates, which are adjusted in order to achieve consistency. (summary in ENG)

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1992

[Forecast intervals of population size].

"This article describes a method for assessing a statistical confidence interval of future population size. The method is based on an autoregressive model of forecast errors of the population growth rate. An English-language version of this article is available upon request (address: Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg)." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗
PubMed1993

[Mortality in the Netherlands population forecasts].

Trends in life expectancy in the Netherlands are reviewed, using mortality data from the 1992 official Netherlands population forecasts. Data are presented by age and sex. "A main conclusion is that mortality in recent years has developed more favourably for men than for women." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

Labour force. Outlook to the year 2020 according to the current Central Statistical Office forecast.

"The paper deals with the changes in the number and structure of population of working age in Poland and by voivodeships to the year 2020 as presented by the most current demographic forecast of the Central Statistical Office. The period 1995-2020 is going to be characterised, in its first stage, by a serious increase in the number of population of working age and then, after the year 2010, the size of this group will considerably contract.... The changes flagged will vary geographically."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1998

K-12 enrollment forecasting: merging methods and judgment.

"This article describes an enrollment forecasting process in which technical experts and local community stakeholders [in Oregon] worked together to produce data that were cost-efficient and yet accurate enough to serve as the basis for sound decisions. The large school district that employed this process gained valuable insights to guide its attendance zone and facilities planning decisions, and also created a group of key communicators to ensure community understanding and support."

Americas↗