PubMedDate not supplied
PURPOSE: To evaluate the post-lumpectomy treatment of a nonpalpable, stage I, T1b tumor, mammographically detected, in a 74-year-old woman without comorbidities. METHODS: A Markov process, through 120 monthly cycles, was used to model patient progression through a treatment program, employing literature data and a health-outcome utility. Treatments considered were: observation; radiation totaling 5,000 cGy over six weeks; tamoxifen, 20 mg/day, for five years; simple mastectomy; and radiation therapy plus tamoxifen. Health states included absence of disease (NED), loco-regional recurrence, distant metastasis, age-sex-race (ASR)-adjusted death, cancer mortality, treatment complications, and post-mastectomy death. Transition probabilities were established from the literature. Health-state utilities were determined from the responses of health care professionals to a basic reference gamble. RESULTS: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were determined to be 8.19 for radiation plus tamoxifen, decreasing to 8.04 for mastectomy, a difference of only a 0.15 years (1.8 months). Sensitivity analysis, however, showed relative stability in the ranking among treatment options. CONCLUSION: Although the model showed little difference between QALYs with the treatments, the combination of radiation and tamoxifen provides the optimal therapy for this case.