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PubMed1991

Hyperinsulinaemia as a predictor of coronary heart disease mortality in a healthy population: the Paris Prospective Study, 15-year follow-up.

The Paris Prospective Study is a long-term, large-scale study of the factors predicting coronary heart disease. The first follow-up examination included, for subjects not known as having diabetes mellitus, a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test with measurement of plasma insulin and glucose levels, fasting and 2 h post-load. Between 1968 and 1973, 6903 men aged 43-54 years were thus examined. Causes of death were ascertained within this group after 15 years of mean follow-up. The baseline variables were tested as predictors of death from coronary heart disease by a Cox regression analysis. Significant independent predictors of coronary heart disease death were: systolic blood pressure, number of cigarettes per day, plasma cholesterol level, and 2 h post-load plasma insulin level when entered as a categorical variable (below or above 452 pmol/l. i.e. the lower limit of the fifth quintile of the distribution). This dichotomization was performed to account for the non-linear univariate distribution of deaths with increasing post-load insulin values. Fasting plasma insulin level was not an independent predictor of death by coronary heart disease over this long-term follow-up. Levels of blood glucose were not significant independent predictors of death by coronary heart disease when plasma insulin levels were included in the model. The same applied to abnormalities of glucose tolerance when the 125 men with known non-insulin-treated diabetes at baseline were added to the group. Under the assumption that hyperinsulinaemia is a marker of insulin resistance, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that insulin resistance is associated with a higher risk of coronary heart disease mortality. However, it is doubtful that circulating insulin per se is a direct cause of arterial complications.

Biomarkers↗

PubMed1984

An examination of predictor variables for child compliance and noncompliance.

The purpose of this study was to examine the antecedents of child compliance and noncompliance. Both maternal and child behaviors served as predictors. Fifty-six clinic-referred children and their mothers served as subjects. Data were collected in the home setting by independent observers. Four multiple regression analyses were performed. The results indicated that the behavior immediately preceding child compliance or noncompliance typically was the best predictor. Furthermore, the antecedents for child compliance and noncompliance differed. For maternal antecedents, the type of command that served as the best predictor for child compliance and noncompliance differed; however, the final predictor equation was similar for the two types of child behaviors. For child antecedents, compliance was best predicted by compliance and noncompliance was best predicted by noncompliance. The results were discussed in terms of Patterson's coercion hypothesis.

Child↗

PubMed1995

When the physician leaves the patient: predictors of satisfaction with the transfer of care in a primary care clinic.

OBJECTIVE: To identify independent predictors of patients' satisfaction with transfer of their care from a departing to a new resident physician. DESIGN: A self-administered questionnaire completed by consecutive patients following up after transfer of their care, and by a randomly selected 50% of patients not returning within three months after transfer. SETTING: An internal medicine clinic in a teaching hospital. PATIENTS: Questionnaires were completed by 376 patients: 237 returning to clinic and 139 (91%) of 152 randomly selected patients who had not returned. Mean age of the patients was 65 years, 52% were men, and they had come to the clinic for a median of four years. RESULTS: 57% of the patients were satisfied with the transfer process, 25% were neutral, and 18% expressed frank dissatisfaction. Of nine variables significantly associated with satisfaction by univariate analysis, stepwise multiple regression identified five independent predictors. Personal notification of the patient by the departing physician was the most powerful determinant, explaining 41% of the variability in satisfaction. Other predictors were whether patients believed their physicians had done everything possible to facilitate transfer, whether the departing physician had provided opportunity for discussion of the transfer, whether this discussion was considered sufficient, and patients' impressions of the institution. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the predictors identified can be influenced by physician behavior, suggesting that physicians should personally notify patients of their departure and provide an opportunity for discussion. This could significantly improve patient satisfaction with the transfer process and, as previous studies suggest, translate into greater compliance with medications and follow-up.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Hypoxemia in children with pneumonia and its clinical predictors.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of hypoxemia in children, 2 months to 5 years of age, with pneumonia and to identify its clinical predictors. METHODS: Children between 2-60 months of age presenting with a complaint of cough or difficulty breathing were assessed. Hypoxemia was defined as an arterial oxygen saturation of < 90% recorded by a portable pulse oximeter. Patients were categorized into groups: cough and cold, pneumonia, severe pneumonia and very severe pneumonia. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypoxemia (SpO2 of < 90%) in 150 children with pneumonia was 38.7%. Of them 100% of very severe pneumonia, 80% of severe and 17% of pneumonia patients were hypoxic. Number of infants with respiratory illness (p value = 0.03) and hypoxemia (Odds ratio = 2.21, 95% CI 1.03, 4.76) was significantly higher. Clinical predictors significantly associated with hypoxemia on univariate analysis were lethargy, grunting, nasal flaring, cyanosis, and complaint of inability to breastfeed/drink. Chest indrawing with 68.9% sensitivity and 82.6% specificity was the best predictor of hypoxemia. CONCLUSION: The prevalence and clinical predictors of hypoxemia identified validate the WHO classification of pneumonia based on severity. Age < 1 year in children with ARI is an important risk factor for hypoxemia.

Child, Preschool↗

PubMed2006

Psychosocial impact and personality predictors of coherence feeling among girls with acne.

OBJECTIVE: The extent to which acne influences the emotional life of adolescents is a matter of discussion; but people with acne are prone to emotional and psychological disturbances. METHODS: 54 adolescent girls with acne were studied for their personality variables that are related to high coherence. Sense of coherence, e.g. meaningfulness of life, is crucial to cope successfully with stressors of living: it expresses the belief that a high probability exists that things will work out as well as can reasonably be expected. 58 adolescent girls without acne were in the control group. RESULTS: Neuroticism (anxiety level) was the first predictor of the sense of coherence measure for girls with acne, explaining 19% of the variance. Extraversion was the next predictor, explaining an additional 2 3% of the variance and psychoticism was the third predictor, explaining together 27% of the variance. There was a lack of difference between groups with respect to other personality variables. CONCLUSION: These predictors have to be taken into consideration while treating adolescents acne. Dermatologists, pediatricians and other physicians treating adolescents' acne should be familiar with emotional and psychosocial disturbances that accompany acne in order to effectively assist these patients.

Acne Vulgaris↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Obesity as a predictor of severity in acute pancreatitis.

In order to determine whether the presence of obesity, defined as increased body mass index, would serve as a predictor of severity in acute pancreatitis, we have reviewed the medical records of 27 patients with severe acute pancreatitis. All patients had at least four positive Ranson's signs; all but three patients had at least five Ranson's signs. When the 13 patients with a fatal outcome were compared with the 14 who lived, neither obesity nor respiratory failure was an independent predictor of death. However, when the 27 patients were analyzed on the basis of whether they were obese (15 patients) or not obese (12 patients), obesity was an independent predictor of respiratory failure. Obesity was not a predictor of renal failure, pancreatic necrosis, or need for surgery. We suggest that obese patients with severe acute pancreatitis require close monitoring for the development of respiratory failure.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2000

[Influences and predictors of unanticipated admission after ambulatory surgery].

UNLABELLED: In order to plan the daily routine of a surgical day care unit optimally and effectively, it is indispensable to know the causes of unanticipated admission of outpatients. The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the influences and predictors of unanticipated admission of patients in our day care unit for ambulatory surgery. The data sets of 3152 surgical outpatients were evaluated. The duration of stay had been entered online by computers. METHOD: From January 1997 until June 1999, all clinically relevant parameters from any outpatient were entered into an anesthesia information management system (NarkoData, Imeso GmbH, Hüttenberg-Rechtenbach, Germany). The correlation of potential nominal and ordinal scaled predictors of unanticipated admission was tested using the chi-squared test. Univariate analysis was used in determining predictors for the occurrence of unanticipated admission. Pearson's contingency coefficient (CC) was used as a standard for the correlation rigidity in nominal and ordinal scaled parameters. The correlation standard eta was used for metrical parameters. RESULTS: Unanticipated admission occurred in 169 (5.4%) of the 3152 outpatients. The following parameters significantly influenced unanticipated admission: age, ASA status, diagnosis (ICD-9), time of admission, different anesthesia procedures and anesthetics (opioids and non-depolarizing muscle relaxants), surgical department, type of surgery (ICPM), duration of operation, blood loss, intraoperative hemoglobin values, and the administration of colloid and crystalloid solutions. The parameters blood loss, intraoperative hemoglobin values, and administration of colloid solutions were evaluated as being good predictors. CONCLUSION: The causes of unanticipated admission of patients in our day care unit for ambulatory surgery are manifold. Some relate to the patient, the anesthesia, and the organization of the day care unit, whereas lengthy operative trauma leading to intraoperative blood loss also plays a major role.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Fibrinogen and AER are major independent predictors of 11-year cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes: the Casale Monferrato Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Fibrinogen and elevated AER increase cardiovascular mortality, but few data are available in the type 2 diabetic population. We have conducted an 11-year follow-up study of the Casale Monferrato cohort to assess: (1) the long-term predictive role of AER independently of conventional risk factors; (2) the shape of its relationship with cardiovascular mortality; and (3) whether fibrinogen has a predictive effect independent of the increased cardiovascular risk associated with nephropathy. METHODS: During the follow-up period (1991-2001) a population-based cohort of 1,565 patients was regularly examined, and measurements of HbA1c were centralised. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelling was employed to assess the role of fibrinogen and AER as predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, independently of baseline variables and individual cumulative average values of HbA1c during follow-up. RESULTS: In 10,890.2 person-years of observations, 685 deaths were identified, giving an all-cause mortality rate of 63.4 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 58.8-68.3). In Cox regression analyses, the strongest predictor of cardiovascular mortality was macroalbuminuria (relative risk 2.18, 95% CI 1.62-2.94), which was mainly associated with a high risk of short-term mortality. No increased risk was evident until the upper microalbuminuric range of AER values. Plasma fibrinogen was also a major independent predictor, and its role was not modified by AER, or by the exclusion of subjects developing chronic renal failure or diabetic nephropathy during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The results indicate that: (1) AER is the main independent predictor of 11-year cardiovascular mortality; (2) this effect is mainly evident in the upper range of microalbuminuria and in macroalbuminuria; and (3) fibrinogen has an independent effect on cardiovascular mortality, but no synergistic effect with AER, suggesting that both endothelial dysfunction and chronic inflammation are involved in the excess cardiovascular mortality of type 2 diabetic patients.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of suicide in a community-based cohort of individuals with severe mental disorder.

BACKGROUND: Rate of suicide is probably an indicator of the quality of mental health services within an area. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of suicide in a large community-based cohort of persons with long-term mental disorder. METHODS: A survey was conducted in Stockholm County, Sweden, in 1997 to identify adults with long-term disabling mental disorder (mental retardation and dementia excluded). The survey included an inventory of unmet needs as perceived by the service providers. The 12,247 cases were linked to the national in-patient register and the cause-of-death register. Predictors of suicide in 1997-2000 were determined by bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Predictors of suicide included a history of in-patient psychiatric care, previous suicide attempt, substance abuse and unmet need of a contact person. Personality disorder, especially borderline personality disorder, was the strongest diagnostic predictor of suicide among those with a history of in-patient psychiatric care. CONCLUSION: Unmet needs may signal increased suicide risk in persons with severe mental disorder. Methods to improve suicide prevention in persons with personality disorder should be further developed. Interventions to reduce suicide in persons with a long-term mental disorder will require collaboration between psychiatric and social services.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Predictors of respiratory function deterioration after transfer of critically ill patients.

OBJECTIVES: Critically ill patients are often transferred due to the growing number of diagnostic procedures required to be performed outside the intensive care unit. These transfers have proved to be very critical. The aim of this study was to evaluate predictors for the deterioration of respiratory function in critically ill patients after transfer. DESIGN: Prospective, clinical, observational study. SETTING: 1800-bed university teaching hospital. SUBJECTS: 98 mechanically ventilated patients were investigated during transfer. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Before transfer, all patients were classified according to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS). Haemodynamics and arterial blood gases were measured at 11 different times. Arterial oxygen tension (PaO2), fractional inspired oxygen (FIO2), PaO2/FIO2 ratio, lowest PaO2/FIO2 ratio, minimal PaO2 and maximal FIO2, APACHE II score, TISS before transfer, age and duration of transfer were analysed as potential predictors for deterioration of respiratory function after transfer. Variables were analysed using Classification and Regression Trees and Clustering by Response. In 54 transports (55%) there was a decrease in the PaO2/FIO2 ratio, and a decrease of more than 20% from baseline was noted in 23 of the transferred patients (24%). Age > 43 years and FIO2 > 0.5 were identified as predictors for respiratory deterioration. CONCLUSIONS: Our predictors were able to indicate deterioration after transfer correctly in 20 of 22 patients (91%), combined with a false-positive rate in 17 of 49 (35%).

APACHE↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of acamprosate efficacy: results from a pooled analysis of seven European trials including 1485 alcohol-dependent patients.

RATIONALE: Acamprosate is a proven effective intervention in the treatment of alcohol dependence. However, acamprosate prevents lapses or relapses only in a minority of patients. An important question, therefore, is whether there is a specific subgroup of patients who respond particularly well to acamprosate. OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors of acamprosate efficacy. Based upon the available evidence and hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying acamprosate's effects on drinking behavior, the following variables were considered to be potential positive predictors: high physiological dependence at baseline, negative family history of alcoholism, late age-of-onset, serious anxiety symptomatology at baseline, severe craving at baseline, and female gender. METHOD: Potential predictors of acamprosate's efficacy were analyzed in a pooled analysis of data from seven randomized placebo-controlled trials involving a total of 1485 patients with alcohol dependence. Outcome is measured in terms of cumulative abstinence duration (CAD), continuous abstinence (ABST), and time to first relapse (TFR). RESULTS: CAD and ABST were predicted by baseline measures of craving and anxiety, as well as by study and treatment condition. Acamprosate efficacy was not differentially associated with any of the predictor variables. Importantly, the hypotheses were rejected despite the large sample size and sufficient statistical power. COMMENT: The most straight-forward clinical implication of this study is that acamprosate can be considered as a potentially effective pharmacotherapy for all patients with alcohol dependence. The effect size of acamprosate alone is, however, moderate. Some evidence indicates that the combination of acamprosate with naltrexone or disulfiram leads to substantially better outcomes.

Acamprosate↗

PubMed2002

Predictors of cognitive level and depression severity are different in patients with left and right hemispheric stroke within the first year of illness.

Causes of cognitive impairment after stroke are not yet clear because a large number of sociodemographic and clinical variables complicate the understanding of the phenomenon. We aim to evaluate sociodemographic and clinical predictors of cognitive level and depression in subjects with different lesion laterality. We assessed 153 right (n = 87) and left (n = 66) unilateral first-ever stroke patients within the first year of illness with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-Patient Edition, the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, the State Trait Anger Expression Inventory, the Barthel Index, and the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). Sociodemographic variables were also measured. Sixty-two (41 %) patients suffered from Major Depression (MDD), and 26 (17 %) suffered from Minor Depression (MIND). An univariate analysis of variance showed that MMSE scores were different throughout the groups of left and right stroke patients with MDD, MIND and without depression. Left stroke patients with MDD were more cognitively impaired than all the other groups. This result was valid after controlling for the effect of lesion location on cognitive level difference between the groups. A series of stepwise multiple regression analyses indicated that depression severity was a predictor of cognitive level and vice-versa in left hemispheric stroke patients only. Moreover, educational level in right hemispheric stroke patients and state-anger and number of regions affected in left hemispheric stroke patients were other predictors of cognitive level. The study confirms the hypothesis that predictors of cognitive level and depression severity are different in subjects with different laterality of lesion and that MDD is associated with cognitive impairment in left stroke patients.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of morbidity and mortality in the surgical management of hydatid cyst of the liver.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Surgery for hydatid cyst of the liver is widely practiced worldwide; this type of management is still associated with high mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study is to find out possible predictors for this high mortality and morbidity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The medical records of 169 patients who underwent surgery for hydatid cyst of the liver were retrospectively reviewed. The mortality and the morbidity rates were assessed as well as the following eight potential predictors of mortality and morbidity: age of the patients, size of the cyst, number of cysts, other organs involved by the disease, the presence of preoperative complications, the type of surgery performed (radical or conservative), whether the disease was new or recurrent, and when surgery was performed in the first period (1973-1986) or in the second period (1987-1999). Cross-tabulation and logistic regression between mortality and morbidity (dependent variable) and the above-mentioned eight potential predictors (independent variables) were carried out. RESULTS: Of the 169 patients, 112 were female subjects and 57 male subjects, the age range was from 5 to 85 years (mean=39.2 years), the mortality rate was 6.5% (n=11), and the overall morbidity rate was 53.8% (n=91), while specific complications of liver hydatid cyst surgery were seen in 32% (n=54). Patients of age >40 years, with a cyst diameter of >10 cm, who presented with pre-operative complications, who had conservative surgery, and who had surgery before 1987 were having a significantly higher mortality and morbidity rate. CONCLUSION: Age, size of the cyst, the presence of pre-operative complications particularly cyst-biliary communication, and type of surgical procedure performed (conservative or radical) represent as significant predictors of mortality and morbidity of surgery for liver hydatid cyst.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Predictors of aspiration pneumonia in nursing home residents.

Aspiration pneumonia is a serious problem for the elderly institutionalized person, often requiring transfer to a hospital and a lengthy stay there. It is associated with a high mortality rate and is very costly to the health care system. The current study sought to determine the key predictors of aspiration pneumonia in a nursing home population with the hope that health care providers could identify those residents at highest risk and focus more efforts on prevention of this serious disease. A cross-sectional, retrospective analysis was done, using the Minimum Data Set (MDS) nursing home assessment data for three states (New York, Mississippi, Maine) from 1993 to 1994 (N = 102842). Nursing home residents were aged 65+. Standardized MDS summary scales and their component items were used, including: the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, the cognitive performance scale (CPS), and the Resource Utilization Groups (RUGs). Results of these analyses showed the prevalence of pneumonia among this population was 3% (n = 3118). Results from the logistic regression models indicated 18 significant predictors of aspiration pneumonia. The strongest to weakest predictors of pneumonia were, respectively, suctioning use, COPD, CHF, presence of feeding tube, bedfast, high case mix index, delirium, weight loss, swallowing problems, urinary tract infections, mechanically altered diet, dependence for eating, bed mobility, locomotion, number of medications, and age, while both CVA and tracheotomy care were inversely predictive of pneumonia. The emergence of these significant predictors suggested a different pathogenesis of pneumonia in the elderly nursing home resident from the acute care patient or the outpatient. Nursing home residents have chronic medical conditions that gradually lead to "decompensation" in functional status, nutritional status, and pulmonary clearance. Dysphagia and aspiration are common complications of their medical conditions and may slowly worsen as their status deteriorates. Alternatively, a sudden adverse event may dramatically increase the amount aspirated or the ability to resist infection and lead to sudden decompensation. Clinical staff must identify residents with dysphagia and aspiration and work to prevent decline in functional status in all residents. They must be aware of the dangers of adverse events that lead to sudden inactivity or illness and increase the risk of aspiration pneumonia. Prevention of this disease whenever possible will reduce costs, improve health outcomes, and improve our quality of care.

Aged↗

PubMed1998

Outcome of patients with cirrhosis requiring intensive care unit support: prospective assessment of predictors of mortality.

Determinants of outcome and the utility of the Child-Pugh score and the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score as predictors of outcome were prospectively assessed in 54 consecutive patients with cirrhosis requiring intensive care unit (ICU) management. Overall mortality in the ICU was 43% (23/54). Child-Pugh scores did not differ between survivors or nonsurvivors (12.8 versus 12.3, P = 0.26), however APACHE II scores (P = 0.007), acute physiology scores (P = 0.006), and Karnofsky scores (P = 0.001) were significant predictors of outcome. By univariate analysis, requirement of mechanical ventilation analysis (P = 0.001), duration of mechanical ventilation (P = 0.001), pulmonary infiltrates (P = 0.0001), infections (P = 0.047), gastrointestinal bleeding (P = 0.005), and serum creatinine >1.5mg/dl (P = 0.0005) were significantly associated with mortality. By logistic regression analysis only pulmonary infiltrates (P = 0.0001) and renal dysfunction (P = 0.041) were independent predictors of mortality. When controlled for the severity of illness (APACHE II scores), the mortality in patients with cirrhosis caused by alcohol was significantly lower than that in patients with liver disease not caused by alcohol (P = 0.01). Our study not only identified predictors of poor outcome in patients with cirrhosis requiring ICU care but also provided data that may have implications for optimal timing for transplantation.

APACHE↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of multidimensional outcome after spinal surgery.

The variables identified as predictors of surgical outcome often differ depending on the specific outcome variable chosen to designate "success". A short set of multidimensional core outcome measures was recently developed, in which each of the following domains was addressed with a single question and then combined in an index: pain, function, symptom-specific well-being, general well-being (quality of life), disability (work and social). The present study examined the factors that predicted surgical outcome as measured using the multidimensional core measures. 163 spinal surgery patients (mixed indications) completed questionnaires before and 6 months after surgery enquiring about demographics, medical/clinical history, fear-avoidance beliefs (FABQ), depression (Zung self-rated depression), and the core measures domains. Multiple regression analyses were used to identify predictor variables for each core domain and for the multidimensional combined core-set index. The combination of baseline symptoms, medical variables (pain duration, previous spine operations, number of levels treated, operative procedure) and psychosocial factors (FABQ and Zung depression) explained 34% of the variance in the core measures index (P < 0.001). With regard to the individual domain items, the medical variables were better in predicting the items "pain" and "symptom-specific well-being" (R (2) = 6-7%) than in predicting "function", "general well-being" or "disability" (each R (2) < 4%). The inverse pattern was shown for the psychosocial predictors, which accounted for in each case approximately 20% variance in "function", "general well-being" and "disability" but only 12-14% variance in "pain" and "symptom-specific well-being". Further to previous studies establishing the sensitivity to change of the core-set, we have shown that a large proportion of the variance in its scores after surgery could be predicted by "well-known" medical and psychosocial predictor variables. This substantiates the recommendation for its further use in registry systems, quality management projects, and clinical trials.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of postoperative complications after radical resection for pulmonary aspergillosis.

OBJECTIVE: Although surgery has proven to be the best treatment for pulmonary aspergillosis, with the highest chance of achieving complete remission, it is difficult to determine the surgical indications for this disease because of the high incidence of postoperative complications. We conducted this study to identify some predictors of postoperative complications, in an attempt to reduce the morbidity rate. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 31 patients (18 men, 13 women; median age 53 years) who underwent radical resection for pulmonary aspergillosis between 1976 and 2004. The clinical manifestations, surgical procedures, and postoperative complications were reviewed to clarify the predictors of postoperative complications. RESULTS: The morbidity rate associated with major complications such as intrapleural bleeding, bronchopleural fistula, and empyema, resulting in further surgery, was 19%. Univariate analysis revealed the predictors of major complications to be sex, severe preoperative symptoms, and extensive pulmonary resection. Multivariate analyses also indicated that preoperative symptom severity was an independent predictor of major complications. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary aspergillosis should be resected before the symptoms become too severe if the patient is a surgical candidate.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Predictors of survival in recurrent rectal cancer after resection and intraoperative radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: This study was designed to determine predictors of survival after surgery and intraoperative radiotherapy for recurrent rectal cancer. METHODS: From a prospective database, 634 patients undergoing resection for recurrent rectal cancer between January 1990 and June 2000 were identified. Of these, 111 received intraoperative radiotherapy with curative intent, and 100 were available for follow-up. Clinicopathologic variables from both the primary and recurrent operations were evaluated as predictors of disease-free and disease-specific survival by multivariate Cox regression and log-rank test. RESULTS: There were 54 males and 46 females, with a median age of 57 (range, 37-83) years. With a median follow-up of 23.2 months, 60 patients (60 percent) recurred: 20 (33 percent) locally, 27 (45 percent) distantly, and 13 (22 percent) at both sites. Of all variables analyzed, only complete resection with microscopically negative margins and the absence of vascular invasion in the recurrent specimen predicted improved disease-free and disease-specific survival (P < 0.01 for all). Median disease-free survival and median disease-specific survival were 31.2 and 66.1 months, respectively, for complete resection compared with 7.9 and 22.8 months for resection with microscopic or grossly positive margins (P < 0.01 for both). Median disease-free survival and median disease-specific survival were 6.4 and 16.1 months, respectively, in the presence of vascular invasion in the recurrent specimen compared with 23.3 and 57.3 months in the absence of vascular invasion (P < 0.01 and P < 0.05, respectively). Complete resection and the absence of vascular invasion were the only predictors of improved local control as well (P < 0.05 and P < 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: Resection with negative microscopic margins and absence of vascular invasion are independent predictors of local control and improved survival after resection and intraoperative radiotherapy for recurrent rectal cancer.

Adult↗