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Economic evaluation of hospital at home versus hospital care: cost minimisation analysis of data from randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the costs of admission to a hospital at home scheme with those of acute hospital admission. DESIGN: Cost minimisation analysis within a pragmatic randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Hospital at home scheme in Leicester and the city's three acute hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 199 consecutive patients assessed as being suitable for admission to hospital at home for acute care during the 18 month trial period (median age 84 years). INTERVENTION: Hospital at home or hospital inpatient care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs to NHS, social services, patients, and families during the initial episode of treatment and the three months after admission. RESULTS: Mean (median) costs per episode (including any transfer from hospital at home to hospital) were similar when analysed by intention to treat-hospital at home 2569 pounds sterling (1655 pounds sterling), hospital ward 2881 pounds sterling (2031 pounds sterling), bootstrap mean difference -305 (95% confidence interval -1112 to 448). When analysis was restricted to those who accepted their allocated place of care, hospital at home was significantly cheaper-hospital at home 2557 pounds sterling(1710 pounds sterling), hospital ward 3660 pounds sterling (2903 pounds sterling), bootstrap mean difference -1071 (-1843 to -246). At three months the cost differences were sustained. Costs with all cases included were hospital at home 3671 pounds sterling (2491 pounds sterling), hospital ward 3877 pounds sterling (3405 pounds sterling), bootstrap mean difference -210 (-1025 to 635). When only those accepting allocated care were included the costs were hospital at home 3698 pounds sterling (2493 pounds sterling), hospital ward 4761 pounds sterling (3940 pounds sterling), bootstrap mean difference -1063 (-2044 to -163); P=0.009. About 25% of the costs for episodes of hospital at home were incurred through transfer to hospital. Costs per day of care were higher in the hospital at home arm (mean 207 pounds sterling v 134 pounds sterling in the hospital arm, excluding refusers, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital at home can deliver care at similar or lower cost than an equivalent admission to an acute hospital.

Aged↗

Cost-effectiveness of coronary artery bypass grafts versus percutaneous coronary intervention for revascularization of high-risk patients.

BACKGROUND: A Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study randomized high-risk patients with medically refractory myocardial ischemia, a group largely excluded from previous trials, to urgent revascularization with either percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The present study examined the cost-effectiveness of PCI versus CABG for these high-risk patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 454 patients at 16 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers, 445 were available for the economic analysis (218 PCI and 227 CABG patients). Total costs were assessed at 3 and 5 years from the third-party payer's perspective, and effectiveness was measured by survival. After 3 years, average total costs were 63,896 dollars for PCI versus 84,364 dollars for CABG patients, a difference of 20,468 dollars (95% confidence interval [CI] 13,918 dollars to 27,569 dollars). CIs were estimated by bootstrapping. Survival at 3 years was 0.82 for PCI versus 0.79 for CABG patients (P=0.34). Precision of the cost-effectiveness estimates were assessed by bootstrapping. PCI was less costly and more effective at 3 years in 92.6% of the bootstrap replications. After 5 years, average total costs were 81,790 dollars for PCI versus 100,522 dollars for CABG patients, a difference of 18,732 dollars (95% CI 9873 dollars to 27,831 dollars), whereas survival at 5 years was 0.75 for PCI patients versus 0.70 for CABG patients (P=0.21). At 5 years, PCI remained less costly and more effective in 89.4% of the bootstrap replications. CONCLUSIONS: PCI was less costly and at least as effective for the urgent revascularization of medically refractory, high-risk patients over 5 years.

Aged↗

Inferences about correlations when there is heteroscedasticity.

Let (Yb Xi), i = 1, ..., n, be a random sample from some bivariate distribution, and let rho be the (Pearson) population correlation between X and Y. The usual Student's t test of H0: rho = 0 is valid when X and Y are independent, so in particular the conditional variance of Y, given X, does not vary with X. But when the conditional variance does vary with X, Student's t uses an incorrect estimate of the standard error. In effect, when rejecting H0, this might be due to rho not equal to 0, but perhaps the main reason for rejecting is that there is heteroscedasticity. This note compares two heteroscedastic methods for testing H0 and finds that in terms of Type I errors, the nested bootstrap performed best in simulations when using rho. When using one of two robust analogues of rho (Spearman's rho and the percentage bend correlation), little or no advantage was found, in terms of Type I error probabilities, when using a nested bootstrap versus the basic percentile method. As for power, generally an adjusted percentile bootstrap, used in conjunction with r, performed better than the nested bootstrap, even in situations where, for the null case, the estimated probability of a Type I error was lower when using the adjusted percentile method. As for computing a confidence interval when correlations are positive, situations are found where all methods perform in an unsatisfactory manner.

Analysis of Variance↗

Phylogeny of Gastrotricha: a morphology-based framework of gastrotrich relationships.

Currently, the phylum Gastrotricha is divided into the orders Macrodasyida and Chaetonotida, with the structure of the myoepithelial pharynx being an important distinguishing feature. Macrodasyida currently has six recognized families, and Chaetonotida comprises seven families. However, within-group relationships are poorly understood. To arrive at a better understanding of gastrotrich systematics and phylogeny, we performed the first cladistic analysis of nearly all known gastrotrich genera using 71 morphological characters. Results suggest that the Gastrotricha is a monophyletic group (supported by 82% of bootstrap replications) with its most primitive taxa distributed among the families Dactylopodolidae and Neodasyidae. Monophyly of Macrodasyida and Chaetonotida was supported by 90% and 52% bootstrap replications, respectively. Within the Macrodasyida, the families Dactylopodolidae, Turbanellidae, Macrodasyidae, and Thaumastodermatidae all formed monophyletic clades. The families Planodasyidae and Lepidodasyidae were paraphyletic. Among the Chaetonotida, the marine family Xenotrichulidae was monophyletic, supported by 51% of bootstrap replications. A second clade containing all freshwater families was supported by 62% bootstrap values. However, Chaetonotidae were paraphyletic. Using this analysis as a framework, we now can explore possible patterns of evolution within it, and arrive at a consensus of the gastrotrich ground pattern. Moreover, in future molecular studies of metazoan phylogeny, we will be able to select gastrotrich species that are more appropriate representatives of the phylum.

Animals↗

The distribution of lifetime cumulative exposures to radon for California residents.

The distribution of individual lifetime exposures to radon was estimated using data from studies on radon concentrations, mobility, and time-activity patterns in the state of California. The distributions of radon concentrations in various geographic regions were obtained from the results of year-long radon measurements of 310 residences. The mobility patterns were acquired through a survey of the moving histories of the members of 507 households. The indoor and outdoor time-activity data were collected for 1,780 individuals in 1,596 households. Based on these data, a computer simulation technique was used to estimate the distribution of radon exposures with a parametric (lognormal model) and a nonparametric approach (bootstrap method). The estimated average lifetime exposure for radon was 2,448 Bq.m-3.yr for the lognormal model and 2,487 Bq.m-3.yr for the bootstrap method. The standard deviation was 1,130 and 1,145 Bq.m-3.yr respectively. Assuming no move over the lifetime, the estimated average lifetime exposure to radon was 2,052 Bq.m-3.yr for the lognormal model and 2,078 Bq.m-3.yr for the bootstrap method, while the standard deviation increased to 1,378 Bq.m-3.yr for the lognormal model and 1,514 Bq.m-3.yr for the bootstrap method.

Adolescent↗

Clinical identifiers of complicated Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia.

BACKGROUND: Complications of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) are often difficult to identify. The ability to accurately predict the likelihood of these complications would impact patient management. This investigation sought to define readily available clinical characteristics that could help identify patients at risk for complicated SAB. METHODS: A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted from September 1994 through December 1999. Patients were followed up for 12 weeks after the initial positive blood culture result. The primary end point was complicated SAB (attributable mortality, complicated infection, embolic stroke, or recurrent S aureus infection during the 12-week follow-up period). The predictive model was validated using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: Complicated SAB was present in 43% of 724 consecutive adult hospitalized patients identified during the study period. The full predictive model had a high discriminative ability (bootstrap-corrected c index, 0.78). The strongest predictor of complicated SAB was a positive follow-up blood culture result at 48 to 96 hours. A scoring system based on the presence or absence of 4 risk factors (community acquisition, skin examination findings suggesting acute systemic infection, persistent fever at 72 hours, and positive follow-up blood culture results at 48-96 hours) accurately identified complicated SAB (bootstrap-corrected c index, 0.76). CONCLUSION: Readily available clinical variables can help identify patients at risk for complicated SAB.

Adult↗

Identification of a novel GB type C virus/hepatitis G virus subtype in patients with hematologic malignancies.

The existence of four GB C virus/hepatitis G virus (GBV-C/HGV) subtypes has been reported. The subtype was determined in 16 multitransfused GBV-C/HGV infected patients prior to bone marrow transplantation by comparing the 5' untranslated region (5' UTR) sequence with 39 available sequences. Phylogenetic and bootstrap analyses were carried out with PHYLIP package 3.5c. In the samples with undefined subtype, the whole 5' UTR was cloned and sequenced. Comparison of distances showed that the isolates from 12/16 and 4/16 patients belonged theoretically to subtypes 2a and 2b, respectively. The phylogenetic tree and bootstrap analyses confirmed this result in only 11/16 samples. Analysis of the entire 5' UTR from the remaining five samples with undefined GBV-C/HGV subtype revealed genomic variability within the isolates from each patient and between the isolates of different patients. Evolutionary distances, phylogenetic tree, and bootstrap showed that the isolates from these samples were grouped in a separate branch, different from the published subtypes. In conclusion, a novel GBV-C/HGV subtype was found in a group of multitransfused patients with GBV-C/HGV infection.

5' Untranslated Regions↗

A comparison of several procedures to estimate the confidence interval for attributable risk in case-control studies.

The estimation of a confidence interval for attributable risk from the logistic model based on data from case-control studies is a problem for which an accepted solution is lacking. Two methods, one based on the delta method and one bootstrap on the population base, have been described but their accuracy has not been compared. We present two other methods, one based on a jack-knife approach and the other using a bootstrap on two samples (cases and controls). The four methods are compared in a simulation study. The four methods are also applied to a case-control study on risk factors for preterm delivery; the confidence intervals are obtained assuming normality and by logarithmic transformation. When attributable risk is not smooth (for example, when exposure prevalence is low) both the jack-knife and the delta method tend to fail. If attributable risk is close to zero or one, normality cannot be assumed and log-transformed confidence intervals must be used. Finally, the extension to matched studies is analysed using a case-control study on risk factors of cutaneous malignant melanoma. In this situation, the population-based bootstrap is not available.

Abruptio Placentae↗

Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios: a comparison of four methods.

We evaluated four methods for computing confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios developed from randomized controlled trials: the box method, the Taylor series method, the nonparametric bootstrap method and the Fieller theorem method. We performed a Monte Carlo experiment to compare these methods. We investigated the relative performance of each method and assessed whether or not it was affected by differing distributions of costs (normal and log normal) and effects (10% absolute difference in mortality resulting from mortality rates of 25% versus 15% in the two groups as well as from mortality rates of 55% versus 45%) or by differing levels of correlation between the costs and effects (correlations of -0.50, -0.25, 0.0, 0.25 and 0.50). The principal criterion used to evaluate the performance of the methods was the probability of miscoverage. Symmetrical miscoverage of the intervals was used as a secondary criterion for evaluating the four methods. Overall probabilities of miscoverage for the nonparametric bootstrap method and the Fieller theorem method were more accurate than those for the other the methods. The Taylor series method had confidence intervals that asymmetrically underestimated the upper limit of the interval. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios resulting from the nonparametric bootstrap method and the Fieller theorem method were more dependably accurate than those estimated using the Taylor series or box methods. Routine reporting of these intervals will allow individuals using cost-effectiveness ratios to make clinical and policy judgments to better identify when an intervention is a good value for its cost.

Computer Simulation↗

Numerical methods for the evaluation of individual bioequivalence criteria.

The evaluation of individual bioequivalence (IBE) by bootstrap resampling using common statistical software, for example SAS, is extremely time consuming. In this article, an estimation procedure that can be implemented in a high level language with the same degree of accuracy as SAS is described. The necessary parameter estimating equations under both least square (LSE) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) methods are given. The algorithms used to numerically compute these values are outlined and tested, in FORTRAN, on several simulated data sets and shown to reproduce SAS results with at least 10(-3) precision. More importantly, the REML bootstrap algorithm reduces the time taken in SAS by a factor of 20. Secondary results indicate that LSE and REML parameter estimates are similar for mild unbalancedness. PROC MIXED, with unstructured (UN) and compound symmetry heterogeneous (CSH) variance structures give the same results except when the subject-by-treatment interaction variance, sigma(2)(D), is 0 in which case CSH significantly overestimates sigma(2)(D) and underestimates the within-treatment variances. It is concluded that bootstrap evaluation of IBE is efficiently done using either the LSE or REML algorithm in FORTRAN.

Algorithms↗

A multilevel model framework for meta-analysis of clinical trials with binary outcomes.

In this paper we explore the potential of multilevel models for meta-analysis of trials with binary outcomes for both summary data, such as log-odds ratios, and individual patient data. Conventional fixed effect and random effects models are put into a multilevel model framework, which provides maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood estimation. To exemplify the methods, we use the results from 22 trials to prevent respiratory tract infections; we also make comparisons with a second example data set comprising fewer trials. Within summary data methods, confidence intervals for the overall treatment effect and for the between-trial variance may be derived from likelihood based methods or a parametric bootstrap as well as from Wald methods; the bootstrap intervals are preferred because they relax the assumptions required by the other two methods. When modelling individual patient data, a bias corrected bootstrap may be used to provide unbiased estimation and correctly located confidence intervals; this method is particularly valuable for the between-trial variance. The trial effects may be modelled as either fixed or random within individual data models, and we discuss the corresponding assumptions and implications. If random trial effects are used, the covariance between these and the random treatment effects should be included; the resulting model is equivalent to a bivariate approach to meta-analysis. Having implemented these techniques, the flexibility of multilevel modelling may be exploited in facilitating extensions to standard meta-analysis methods.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗

Inferring species phylogenies from multiple genes: concatenated sequence tree versus consensus gene tree.

Phylogenetic trees from multiple genes can be obtained in two fundamentally different ways. In one, gene sequences are concatenated into a super-gene alignment, which is then analyzed to generate the species tree. In the other, phylogenies are inferred separately from each gene, and a consensus of these gene phylogenies is used to represent the species tree. Here, we have compared these two approaches by means of computer simulation, using 448 parameter sets, including evolutionary rate, sequence length, base composition, and transition/transversion rate bias. In these simulations, we emphasized a worst-case scenario analysis in which 100 replicate datasets for each evolutionary parameter set (gene) were generated, and the replicate dataset that produced a tree topology showing the largest number of phylogenetic errors was selected to represent that parameter set. Both randomly selected and worst-case replicates were utilized to compare the consensus and concatenation approaches primarily using the neighbor-joining (NJ) method. We find that the concatenation approach yields more accurate trees, even when the sequences concatenated have evolved with very different substitution patterns and no attempts are made to accommodate these differences while inferring phylogenies. These results appear to hold true for parsimony and likelihood methods as well. The concatenation approach shows >95% accuracy with only 10 genes. However, this gain in accuracy is sometimes accompanied by reinforcement of certain systematic biases, resulting in spuriously high bootstrap support for incorrect partitions, whether we employ site, gene, or a combined bootstrap resampling approach. Therefore, it will be prudent to report the number of individual genes supporting an inferred clade in the concatenated sequence tree, in addition to the bootstrap support.

Animals↗

Molecular analysis of VP4, VP7, and NSP4 genes of P[6]G2 rotavirus genotype strains recovered from neonates admitted to hospital in Belém, Brazil.

This investigation describes the molecular characterization of P[6]G2 rotavirus strains from hospitalized neonates with community-acquired diarrhea (CAD), nosocomial diarrhea (ND), and asymptomatic nosocomial infection (ANI) in Belém, Brazil. Twenty-six rotavirus strains with P[6]G2 genotype were sequenced to genes coding for VP4, VP7, and NSP4 proteins. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP4 gene, including prototype strains RV3, ST3, M37, and U1205, showed that local P[6]G2 strains clustered forming a distinct lineage (bootstrap of 99%). Brazilian P[6]G2 strains had the highest homology (ranging from 96.0%-98.3%) with the African strain GR1107, G4P[6]. Phylogenetic tree for VP7 gene was constructed including old and new G2 African strains SA3958GR/97, SA356PT/96, SA514GR/87, SA4476PT/97, BF3676/99, GH1803/99, and representative strains of G1, G3, G4, G5, G8, and G9 genotypes. The Brazilian P[6]G2 samples fell into a distinct group (bootstrap value of 97%) and showed homology rates ranging from 92.1% to 93.5% with P[6]G2 African strains BF3676/99, GH1803/99, and SA3958GR/97. Nucleotide sequence analysis of the NSP4 gene, including human prototype strains S2, KUN, DS-1, RV5, RV3 and ST3, and animal prototype OSU, showed that all neonatal isolates fell into genotype A and clustered with a bootstrap value of 100%, with in-group similarities ranging from 99.3% to 100%. In this study no significant differences in nucleotide sequences of the VP4, VP7, and NSP4 genes could be observed when comparing diarrheic (CAD and ND) and non-diarrheic (ANI) babies. Monitoring of rotavirus strains in hospital environments is of particular importance, since it is claimed currently that an efficacious rotavirus vaccine, when available for routine use, will determine an impact on hospital-acquired rotavirus disease.

Antigens, Viral↗

Hepatitis B virus genotyping, core promoter, and precore/core mutations among Afghan patients infected with hepatitis B: a preliminary report.

In spite of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination, HBV infection remains an important public health problem worldwide. Although the HBV genotype distribution has been determined in some parts of South Central Asia, no survey has been conducted to determine the HBV genotype in Afghanistan. Twelve Afghan patients infected with HBV living in Afghanistan were enrolled in this study. Partial HBsAg and basic core promoter, precore, and core (BCP/preC/C) regions were amplified and subjected for direct sequencing. In parallel, precore G1896A mutation was also determined by an amplification-created restriction site method. Results revealed HBV genotype D (95% bootstrap value), sub-genotype D1 (98% bootstrap value), and subtype ayw2 in all Afghan isolates. Afghan isolates clustered in a separate branch in the D1 sub-genotype called D1', while supported by 82% bootstrap value. The percentage of intra-genotypic distance among Afghan isolates was 1.05% and inter-genotypic distance with the other genotype D was 2.87% and with other genotypes was 7.50%-11.1%. The wild-type, mixed infection, and precore mutant were found in six, two, and four HBV isolates, respectively. The A1762T/G1764A BCP dual mutation was found in one isolate. Three isolates presented single mutation in the BCP dual mutation region, whereas two showed a novel G1764T mutation. In conclusion, this preliminary study revealed HBV genotype D, sub-genotype D1, and subtype ayw2 of HBV among hepatitis B infected patients from Afghanistan. Further investigation should be carried out.

Adolescent↗

The study of long-term HIV dynamics using semi-parametric non-linear mixed-effects models.

Modelling HIV dynamics has played an important role in understanding the pathogenesis of HIV infection in the past several years. Non-linear parametric models, derived from the mechanisms of HIV infection and drug action, have been used to fit short-term clinical data from AIDS clinical trials. However, it is found that the parametric models may not be adequate to fit long-term HIV dynamic data. To preserve the meaningful interpretation of the short-term HIV dynamic models as well as to characterize the long-term dynamics, we introduce a class of semi-parametric non-linear mixed-effects (NLME) models. The models are non-linear in population characteristics (fixed effects) and individual variations (random effects), both of which are modelled semi-parametrically. A basis-based approach is proposed to fit the models, which transforms a general semi-parametric NLME model into a set of standard parametric NLME models, indexed by the bases used. The bases that we employ are natural cubic splines for easy implementation. The resulting standard NLME models are low-dimensional and easy to solve. Statistical inferences that include testing parametric against semi-parametric mixed-effects are investigated. Innovative bootstrap procedures are developed for simulating the empirical distributions of the test statistics. Small-scale simulation and bootstrap studies show that our bootstrap procedures work well. The proposed approach and procedures are applied to long-term HIV dynamic data from an AIDS clinical study.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

On combining dose-response data from epidemiological studies by meta-analysis.

Using data from a meta-analysis of the effects of oestrogen replacement therapy on the development of breast cancer, we compared alternative methods for combining dose-response slopes from epidemiological studies. We evaluated issues related both to summarizing data from single studies and to combining results from multiple studies. Findings related to the analysis of individual dose-response studies include: (1) a method of weighing studies that gives greater influence to dose-response slopes that conform to the linear relation of relative risk to duration can lead to large differences in calculated weights as a function of non-linearity; (2) a regression model using a variable-intercept resulted in a mean dose-response slope that increased as much as threefold when compared with the values obtained with a zero-intercept model. When combining results from multiple studies, we found: (1) calculating standard errors of mean dose-response slopes by methods that allow for both among-study and within-study variability (a random-effects type model) gave values different from a method that assumes homogeneity and equal within-study precision (a fixed-effects model); (2) the random-effects model gives mean and standard error results most similar to a bootstrap resampling method as increasing heterogeneity is observed (however, this model could give biased mean estimates compared with the bootstrap method); (3) a components-of-variance model compares favourably with the bootstrap and is easier to apply than the random-effects model. Based on these findings, we recommend the use of methods which incorporate heterogeneity to guard against underestimating the standard error. However, caution is urged because bias in point estimates can occur if extreme heterogeneity is present. Two other observations affect the interpretation of data combined from multiple studies. First, inclusion into a model of quality scores assigned by blinded reviewers had little effect on the mean dose-response slope and its standard error. Second, the number of studies required to achieve desired statistical power, varies with effect size.

Analysis of Variance↗

Methods for testing equality of means of health care costs in a paired design study.

In this paper we propose five new tests for the equality of paired means of health care costs. The first two tests are the parametric tests, a Z-score test and a likelihood ratio test, both derived under the bivariate normality assumption for the log-transformed costs. The third test (Z-score with jack-knife) is a semi-parametric Z-score method, which only requires marginal log-normal assumptions. The last two tests are the non-parametric bootstrap tests: one is based on a t-test statistic, and the other is based on Johnson's modified t-test statistic. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of these tests, along with some commonly used tests when the sample size is small to moderate. The simulation results demonstrate that the commonly used paired t-test on the log-scale and the Wilcoxon signed rank for differences of the two original scales can yield type I error rates larger than the preset nominal levels. The commonly used paired t-test on the original data performs well with slightly skewed data, but can yield inaccurate results when two populations have different skewness. The likelihood ratio test, the parametric and semi-parametric Z-score tests all have very good type I error control with the likelihood ratio test being the best. However, the semi-parametric Z-score test requires less distributional assumptions than the two parametric tests. The percentile-t bootstrap test and bootstrapped Johnson's modified t-test have better type I error control than the paired t-test on the original-scale and Johnson's modified t-test, respectively. Combining with the propensity-score method, we can also apply the proposed methods to test the mean equality of two cost outcomes in the presence of confounders. Our two applications are from health services research. In the first one, we want to know the effect of Medicaid reimbursement policy change on outpatient health care costs. The second one is to evaluate the effect of a hospitalist programme on health care costs in an observational study, and the imbalanced covariates between intervention and control patients are taken into account using a propensity score approach.

Computer Simulation↗

The early acquisition of verb meaning in German by normally developing and language impaired children.

The research reported here focuses on the early acquisition of event structure in German. Based on longitudinal studies from 5 normally developing (ND) and 6 language-impaired (LI) children, a model of "event structural bootstrapping" is presented that spells out how ND children log into the verb lexicon. They project a target-consistent event tree, depicting the head-of-event of transitions. Young LI children, failing to employ this bootstrapping strategy, resort to radically underspecified event representations. The results from a truth-value judgment experiment with 16 ND and 16 LI children showed that ND children perform correctly on transitional verbs, while LI children perform at chance level on the same tasks. These findings are accounted for by the model of event structural bootstrapping to the extent that LI children lack an explicit representation of the head-of-event.

Adult↗