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Neuronal basis of Hammel's model for set-point thermoregulation.

In 1965, H. T. Hammel proposed a neuronal model to explain set-point thermoregulation. His model was based on a synaptic network encompassing four different types of hypothalamic neurons: i.e., warm-sensitive and temperature-insensitive neurons and heat loss and heat production effector neurons. Although some modifications to this model are suggested, recent electrophysiological and morphological studies support many of the model's major tenets. Hypothalamic warm-sensitive neurons integrate core and peripheral thermal information. These neurons sense changes in hypothalamic temperature, and they orient their dendrites medially and laterally to receive ascending afferent input from cutaneous thermoreceptors. Temperature-insensitive neurons have a different dendritic orientation and may provide constant reference signals, which are important in determining thermoregulatory set points. In Hammel's model, temperature-sensitive and -insensitive neurons send mutually antagonistic synaptic inputs to effector neurons controlling various thermoregulatory responses. The model predicts that warm-sensitive neurons synaptically excite heat loss effector neurons and inhibit heat production effector neurons. In recent studies, one counterpart of these effector neurons may be "excitatory postsynaptic potential-driven neurons," the activity of which is dependent on synaptic excitation from nearby cells. Excitatory postsynaptic potential-driven neurons have sparse dendrites that appear to be specifically oriented, either medially or laterally, presumably to receive selective synaptic input from a discrete source. Another counterpart of effector neurons may be "silent neurons," which have extensive dendritic branches that may receive synaptic excitation from remote sources. Because some silent neurons receive synaptic inhibition from nearby warm-sensitive neurons, Hammel's model would predict that they have a role in heat production or heat retention responses.

Animals↗

Motor adaptation to Coriolis force perturbations of reaching movements: endpoint but not trajectory adaptation transfers to the nonexposed arm.

1. Reaching movements made in a rotating room generate Coriolis forces that are directly proportional to the cross product of the room's angular velocity and the arm's linear velocity. Such Coriolis forces are inertial forces not involving mechanical contact with the arm. 2. We measured the trajectories of arm movements made in darkness to a visual target that was extinguished at the onset of each reach. Prerotation subjects pointed with both the right and left arms in alternating sets of eight movements. During rotation at 10 rpm, the subjects reached only with the right arm. Postrotation, the subjects pointed with the left and right arms, starting with the left, in alternating sets of eight movements. 3. The initial perrotary reaching movements of the right arm were highly deviated both in movement path and endpoint relative to the prerotation reaches of the right arm. With additional movements, subjects rapidly regained straight movement paths and accurate endpoints despite the absence of visual or tactile feedback about reaching accuracy. The initial postrotation reaches of the left arm followed straight paths to the wrong endpoint. The initial postrotation reaches of the right arm had paths with mirror image curvature to the initial perrotation reaches of the right arm but went to the correct endpoint. 4. These observations are inconsistent with current equilibrium point models of movement control. Such theories predict accurate reaches under our experimental conditions. Our observations further show independent implementation of movement and posture, as evidenced by transfer of endpoint adaptation to the nonexposed arm without transfer of path adaptation. Endpoint control may occur at a relatively central stage that represents general constraints such as gravitoinertial force background or egocentric direction relative to both arms, and control of path may occur at a more peripheral stage that represents moments of inertia and muscle dynamics unique to each limb. 5. Endpoint and path adaptation occur despite the absence both of mechanical contact cues about the perturbing force and visual or tactile cues about movement accuracy. These findings point to the importance of muscle spindle signals, monitoring of motor commands, and possibly joint and tendon receptors in a detailed trajectory monitoring process. Muscle spindle primary and secondary afferent signals may differentially influence adaptation of movement shape and endpoint, respectively.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Equal division of estates and the exchange motive.

Although the bequest motive is one of the most important theoretical extensions of the life-cycle hypothesis, few empirical studies have measured determinants of unequal estate division. We estimated whether several proxies that are consistent with exchange and altruism lead to unequal estate division using data from a longitudinal survey of deceased elderly persons linked to probate court records. Equal division was the rule-between 70 and 83% of estates were divided equally, depending on the strictness of the definition of equal division. Several measures of exchange were not significant predictors of unequal division. Two factors that are consistent with both exchange and altruism- writing the last will and testament within five years of death and having more children-predict unequal estate division. The models control for selection, because many decedents do not file a record in probate court.

Aged↗

Hepatitis C and substance use in a sample of homeless people in New York City.

This study examined the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies and its association with substance use and sexual behavior among a sample of 139 persons visiting a mobile medical clinic in Manhattan. Ninety percent were unstably housed or were living on the street. The prevalence of HCV antibodies was 32%. Prevalence was also high for hepatitis B core antibodies (47%), HIV antibodies (15%), and syphilis exposure (14%); 76% tested positive for cocaine. Among subjects who reported ever injecting (20%), 86% were HCV positive; 19% of non-injectors were HCV positive. In separate multivariate logistic regression models (with injection controlled), HCV was predicted by quantitative hair assays for cocaine and self-reported duration of crack-cocaine use. Alcohol dependence and sexual behavior did not predict HCV. Hepatitis C is a significant public health problem among the urban homeless population, with injection drug use and, to a lesser extent, cocaine use implicated as risk factors.

Adult↗

Predicting delivery within 48 hours in women treated with parenteral tocolysis.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction rule using clinical admission characteristics for women treated with parenteral tocolysis for preterm labor who are at highest risk of delivery within 48 hours. METHODS: We performed a case-control study of patients treated with magnesium sulfate for idiopathic preterm labor. A case was defined as a patient who received magnesium sulfate tocolysis and delivered within 48 hours of admission. We selected a 48-hour delay to delivery as a clinically relevant endpoint for the maximization of steroid benefit. Controls were patients who received magnesium sulfate tocolysis and remained undelivered 48 hours after admission. Cases and controls were identified by merging a pharmacy billing database with International Classification of Disease codes for premature labor. Medical records were reviewed and risk factor information was obtained. We focused on risk factors within the first hour of admission, because our goal was to identify patients at high risk of delivery early in their hospital course. Backward stepwise logistic regression was used to develop explanatory and predictive models. The focus of the predictive model was to maximize the test's sensitivity and negative predictive value. RESULTS: We identified 50 cases and 150 controls. The following six variables were included in the initial multivariable models based on bivariate analyses: white blood cell count at least 14.0 (1000/microL), cervical dilation at least 2 cm, bleeding, substance abuse, parity, and previous abortion. A two-variable model containing cervical dilation and bleeding had an overall accuracy of 73%, sensitivity of 62%, and specificity of 76%, and it was as sensitive and specific as more complex models. CONCLUSION: Cervical dilation of at least 2 cm and bleeding on admission had an overall accuracy of 73% in predicting the likelihood of delivery within 48 hours in women receiving magnesium sulfate.

Case-Control Studies↗

ADAPT: a predictive cognitive model of user visual attention and action planning.

We present a computational cognitive model of novice and expert aviation pilot action planning called ADAPT that models performance in a dynamically changing simulated flight environment. We perform rigorous tests of ADAPT's predictive validity by comparing the performance of individual human pilots to that of their respective models. Individual pilots were asked to execute a series of flight maneuvers using a flight simulator, and their eye fixations and control movements were recorded in a time-synched database. Computational models of each of the 25 individual pilots were constructed, and the individual models simulated execution of the same flight maneuvers performed by the human pilots. The time-synched eye fixations and control movements of individual pilots and their respective models were compared, and rigorous tests of ADAPT's predictive validity were performed. The model explains and predicts a significant portion of pilot visual attention and control movements during flight as a function of piloting expertise. Implications for adaptive training systems are discussed.

Artificial Intelligence↗

The relations of effortful control and impulsivity to children's resiliency and adjustment.

The unique relations of effortful control and impulsivity to resiliency and adjustment were examined when children were 4.5 to 8 years old, and 2 years later. Parents and teachers reported on all constructs and children's attentional persistence was observed. In concurrent structural equation models, effortful control and impulsivity uniquely and directly predicted resiliency and externalizing problems and indirectly predicted internalizing problems (through resiliency). Teacher-reported anger moderated the relations of effortful control and impulsivity to externalizing problems. In the longitudinal model, all relations held at T2 except for the path from impulsivity to externalizing problems. Evidence of bidirectional effects also was obtained. The results indicate that effortful control and impulsivity are distinct constructs with some unique prediction of resiliency and adjustment.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

Estimating environmental exposures to sulfur dioxide from multiple industrial sources for a case-control study.

This paper first discusses how population exposures to environmental pollutants are estimated from environmental monitoring data and the problems that are encountered in estimating risk from pollutants on the basis of ecologic studies. We then present a technique of estimating individualized exposures to an atmospheric pollutant, sulfur dioxide (SO2), through atmospheric transport modeling for a case-control study. The transport model uses the quantities of SO2 released from 30 geographically identified industrial facilities and meteorological data (wind speed and direction) to predict the downwind ground-level concentrations of SO2 at geographically identified residences, receptors, of 797 study subjects. A distribution of facility SO2 emissions, uncertainties in effective stack height, and model uncertainty are incorporated to examine the uncertainty in the predicted versus ambient monitoring SO2 levels, and to generate an exposure uncertainty distribution for both the cases and controls. The transport model's accuracy is evaluated by comparing recorded ambient measurements of SO2 with the model's predicted SO2 estimates at geographically identified ambient monitoring stations.

Air Pollutants↗

Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines.

Mathematical models can be used as health policy tools and predictive tools. Here we review how mathematical models have been used both to predict the consequences of specific epidemic control strategies and to design epidemic control strategies. We review how models have been used to evaluate the potential impact on HIV epidemics of (i) combination antiretroviral therapies (ART) and (ii) imperfect vaccines. In particular, we discuss how models have been used to predict the potential effect of ART on incidence rates, and to predict the evolution of an epidemic of drug-resistant HIV. We also discuss, in detail, how mathematical models have been used to evaluate the potential impact of prophylactic, live-attenuated and therapeutic HIV vaccines. We show how HIV vaccine models can be used to evaluate the epidemic-level impact of vaccine efficacy, waning in vaccine-induced immunity, vaccination coverage level, and changes (increases or decreases) in risky behavior. We also discuss how mathematical models can be used to determine the levels of cross-immunity that vaccines will need to attain if they are to be used to control HIV epidemics in countries where more than one subtype is being transmitted.

AIDS Vaccines↗

Evaluation of strategies for control of sheep lice (Damalinia ovis) with an epidemiological model.

A model was constructed to integrate the epidemiology and economics of control of sheep lice in Victoria and provide an objective basis for comparing lice control strategies. The strategies evaluated included different allocations of Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (DARA) resources for detection and supervision of infected flocks and for extension to enhance owner detection rates, change treatment practices or promote the adoption of disease prevention measures. Changes in prevalence and the net present cost of sheep lice to the industry were calculated over a 10-year period. The model predicted that the most profitable lice control strategy was to discourage routine annual treatment, promote treatment on detection, and encourage the adoption of lice prevention measures. The number of infested flocks undertaking eradication programs under DARA supervision had little effect on the prevalence or net cost of lice to Victoria.

Animals↗

In vitro zonation and toxicity in a hepatocyte bioreactor.

The complex architecture of the liver is intertwined with its response to xenobiotic compounds. In particular, hepatocyte subpopulations are distributed along the sinusoid in zones 1 to 3, leading to prototypical "periportal" and "centrilobular" patterns of cell death in response to a toxic insult. In vitro models that more closely represent these zones of sub-specialization may therefore be valuable for the investigation of hepatic physiology and pathophysiology. We have established a perfused hepatocyte bioreactor that imposes physiologic oxygen gradients on co-cultures of rat hepatocytes and non-parenchymal cells, thereby producing an in vitro model of zonation. In order to predict and control oxygen gradients, oxygen transport in a parallel-plate bioreactor containing co-cultures was first mathematically modeled and experimentally validated. Co-cultures exposed to these physiologic oxygen gradients demonstrated regionally heterogeneity of CYP2B and CYP3A protein that mimics the distribution seen in the zonated liver. The distribution of CYP expression in the bioreactor was shown to vary with exposure to different chemical inducers and growth factors, providing a potential platform to study physiologic zonal responses. In order to explore zonal hepatotoxicity, bioreactors were perfused with APAP (acetominophen) for 24 h, resulting in maximal cell death at the low-oxygen outlet region similar to centrilobular necrotic patterns observed in vivo. This hepatocyte bioreactor system enables further in vitro investigation into zonation-dependent phenomena involving drug metabolism and toxicity.

Acetaminophen↗

Control theory predictions of reproductive allocation in female dusky salamanders.

A model of the reproductive ecology of female dusky salamanders was used to investigate the allocation scheme that a female might use to maximize her reproductive success. Analysis of the model with techniques of optimal control theory suggests that fecundity is maximized either by allocating food resources to reproduction for the entire time period prior to egg laying, or by growing first, then switching to reproduction later in the year. The analysis also indicates that egg mortality will be minimized if the female provides maternal care at the maximum level throughout egg brooding. These results are not specific to dusky salamanders, but can be extended to other organisms with similar reproductive characteristics.

Animals↗

SCHISTOSIM: a microsimulation model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis.

A computer simulation model, SCHISTOSIM, has been developed for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis, based on the stochastic microsimulation technique. The eventual aim is to evaluate and predict the effects of different control strategies. In the current state of the model, human-, worm-, and infection-related aspects have been included. However, many others, including most transmission and transmission-related mechanisms, have yet to be modeled. By simulating a series of surveys and treatments in Burundi, short-term effects of this program were satisfactorily explained by the model. However, long-term predictions did not match the observed data. Possible extensions of the model to properly describe these effects are identified. The potential of SCHISTOSIM as a tool for the prediction of outcomes of alternative control strategies is illustrated and discussed.

Animals↗

Understanding, predicting and controlling the emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a theoretical framework.

The high prevalence of tuberculosis in developing countries and the recent resurgence of tuberculosis in many developed countries suggests that current control strategies are suboptimal. The increase in drug-resistant cases exacerbates the control problems. Currently employed epidemic control strategies are not devised on the basis of a theoretical understanding of the transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We describe and discuss a theoretical framework based upon mathematical transmission models that can be used for understanding, predicting, and controlling tuberculosis epidemics. We illustrate how the theoretical framework can be used to predict the temporal dynamics of the emergence of drug resistance, to predict the epidemiological consequences of epidemic control strategies in developing and developed countries, and to design epidemic control strategies.

Disease Outbreaks↗

Intentional action: conscious experience and neural prediction.

Intentional action involves both a series of neural events in the motor areas of the brain, and also a distinctive conscious experience that "I" am the author of the action. This paper investigates some possible ways in which these neural and phenomenal events may be related. Recent models of motor prediction are relevant to the conscious experience of action as well as to its neural control. Such models depend critically on matching the actual consequences of a movement against its internally predicted effects. However, it remains unclear whether our conscious experience of action depends on a precise matching process, or a retrospective inference that "I" must have been responsible for a particular event. We report an experiment in which normal subjects judged the perceived time of either intentional actions, involuntary movements, or subsequent effects (auditory tones) of these. We found that the subject's intention to produce the auditory tone produced an intentional binding between the perceived times of the subject's action and the tone. However, if the intention was interrupted by an imposed involuntary movement, followed by the identical tone, no such binding occurred. The phenomenology of intentional action requires an appropriate predictive link between intentions and effects, rather than a retrospective inference that "I" caused the effect.

Adolescent↗

Efficacy of ivermectin in a beef-based chewable formulation against Ancylostoma caninum and Uncinaria stenocephala in dogs.

The effective dosage of a chewable formulation of ivermectin was determined in 35 young dogs with induced infections of Ancylostoma caninum and Uncinaria stenocephala. Dogs were inoculated with these parasites and held until the infections were patent. Within each of 7 replicates, dogs were allocated randomly to 1 of 5 treatment groups: vehicle control, or ivermectin at 6, 12, 18, or 24 micrograms/kg. Chewable treatments were tailored to body weight. Seven or 8 days after treatment, parasites were recovered using standard techniques. All 7 controls had adult A. caninum (geometric mean = 35.5) and U. stenocephala (geometric mean = 82.6). Against A. caninum, the efficacy of ivermectin was 52%, 98%, 95%, and 97% at 6, 12, 18, and 24 micrograms/kg, respectively. The statistical model that best described the dose response was linear to 12 micrograms/kg with a plateau thereafter. Using this model, the estimated reduction from the predicted control mean was 97.2%; the estimated dose to eliminate 90% of the worms (ED90) was 8.4 micrograms/kg, and the ED95 was 10.5 micrograms/kg. Against U. stenocephala, the dose response was linear in the range studied, with an ED90 of 20.8 micrograms/kg; it was estimated that 93.2% of the worms would be eliminated.

Administration, Oral↗

Task-level control of rapid wall following in the American cockroach.

The American cockroach, Periplaneta americana, is reported to follow walls at a rate of up to 25 turns s(-1). During high-speed wall following, a cockroach holds its antenna relatively still at the base while the flagellum bends in response to upcoming protrusions. We present a simple mechanosensory model for the task-level dynamics of wall following. In the model a torsional, mass-damper system describes the cockroach's turning dynamics, and a simplified antenna measures distance from the cockroach's centerline to a wall. The model predicts that stabilizing neural feedback requires both proportional feedback (difference between the actual and desired distance to wall) and derivative feedback (velocity of wall convergence) information from the antenna. To test this prediction, we fit a closed-loop proportional-derivative control model to trials in which blinded cockroaches encountered an angled wall (30 degrees or 45 degrees ) while running. We used the average state of the cockroach in each of its first four strides after first contacting the angled wall to predict the state in each subsequent stride. Nonlinear statistical regression provided best-fit model parameters. We rejected the hypothesis that proportional feedback alone was sufficient. A derivative (velocity) feedback term in the control model was necessary for stability.

Animals↗

A novel personal air sampling device for collecting volatile organic compounds: a comparison to charcoal tubes and diffusive badges.

Evacuated canisters have been used for many years to collect ambient air samples for gases and vapors. Recently, significant interest has arisen in using evacuated canisters for personal breathing zone sampling as an alternative to sorbent sampling. A novel flow control device was designed and built at McGill University. The flow control device was designed to provide a very low flow rate, <0.5 mL/min, to allow a sample to be collected over an extended period of time. Previous experiments run at McGill have shown agreement between the mathematical and empirical models to predict flow rate. The flow control device combined with an evacuated canister (capillary flow control-canister) was used in a series of experiments to evaluate its performance against charcoal tubes and diffusive badges. Air samples of six volatile organic compounds were simultaneously collected in a chamber using the capillary flow control-canister, charcoal tubes, and diffusive badges. Five different concentrations of the six volatile organic compounds were evaluated. The results from the three sampling devices were compared to each other and to concentration values obtained using an online gas chromatograph (GC). Eighty-four samples of each method were collected for each of the six chemicals. Results indicate that the capillary flow control-canister device compares quite favorably to the online GC and to the charcoal tubes, p > 0.05 for most of the tests. The capillary flow control-canister was found to be more accurate for the compounds evaluated, easier to use, and easier to analyze than charcoal tubes and passive dosimeter badges.

Air Movements↗