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Money, or the prospect of saving it, is what's rallying many in Congress around supporting managed care as Medicare's magic bullet. And financial, as well as community, incentives are certainly helping to push Medicare managed care programs forward in the delivery system. But will those programs accomplish everything their advocates expect?
The health consequences of an adverse body-fat distribution (e.g., android, upper-body, visceral) have only recently concerned the medical community. Ninety years ago, however, actuarial study demonstrated the relationship of body-fat distribution to the mortality experience of insured, North American men. Thirty-four insurance companies pooled their data on males issued life policies between 1870 and 1899. Special classes of risk were defined by weight for height at baseline or by the observation that abdominal girth exceeded the girth of the expanded chest (abdominal obesity). The mortality experience of each risk class was compared to an age-stratified, actuarial table of the period. We present new analyses of these historical data relating specifically to the mortality impact of abdominal obesity. Among 163,567 overweight men, the prevalence of abdominal obesity increased with age and with degree of overweight. Among moderately overweight men, those with abdominal obesity experienced 133% of the expected mortality rate compared to 112% of the expected mortality for those who were not abdominally obese. Severely overweight men with abdominal obesity experienced 152% of the expected mortality compared to 135% of the expected mortality for severely overweight men who were not abdominally obese. We believe this nineteenth-century, acturial study of waist and chest girths was the first demonstration that body-fat distribution can influence longevity. These early actuarial findings, taken with more recent reports, establish that abdominal enlargement, but not necessarily an 'upper-body' fat distribution, constitutes a major health hazard. Future research must establish which abdominal-obesity index best predicts disease outcomes.
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This article examines the information requirements and other strategies needed to manage business and financial risk in health care organizations. The business and financial risk of providers in the changing health care market is defined. The major factors that are increasing risk are outlined, and strategies for measuring and managing risk are discussed. The interaction of business and financial risk is described, and strategic goals that will minimize the effect of this interaction are presented.
The 1990s have seen many health care organizations attempting to merge, acquire, or affiliate with physician groups. Many have failed to provide physicians a stake in the success of the newly formed enterprise, frequently resulting in declining physician productivity, poor morale, and large operating losses. These problems warrant a reexamination of the traditional acquisition model of growth in favor of structures that retain a physician ownership component. This article examines three models of health care organization in which physicians share in the success of the enterprise and compares them in terms of ownership structure, governance, and funds flow.
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Incremental proposals to expand health insurance coverage, such as expansions of the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) or creation of new tax credits, should be examined for the values that underlie them and for how they structure future options for additional incremental coverage expansions. This paper examines five design issues in incremental reform: who determines coverage options for the newly insured; what risk pool do they enter; what is the government's contribution toward their coverage; what barriers are created by efforts to encourage efficiency; and how are issues of federalism handled? Tax credits are a departure from past approaches, while an SCHIP expansion is a continuation of current policy directions.
In two recent papers, [Journal of Health Economics 18(2), 141-152, Journal of Health Economics 18(6), 811-824] Nyman raised some questions about the welfare calculations and conclusions in our earlier paper [Manning and Marquis, Health insurance: the tradeoff between risk pooling and moral hazard, Vol. 15, 1996]. This note discusses the erroneous criticisms in his papers. First, although, we estimated a Marshallian demand curve, our calculations are based on compensating variations that incorporate the gains from risk pooling. Second, our estimates of second best insurance plans indicate that some cost sharing is optimal, in contradiction to his assertion that our results raise questions about the desirability of insurance coverage. The comment also deals with other issues raised by Nyman.
This paper reports an empirical investigation into the pattern of private health insurance coverage in South Africa before and after deregulation of the health insurance industry. More specifically, we sought to measure trends in risk-pooling over the period 1985-95, and to assess the impact of risk pooling on the costs of health insurance cover over this period. South African mutual health insurers (Medical Schemes) have existed for over 100 years, and have been regulated under a specific Act since 1967. Up until 1989, health insurers were required by law to community rate their premiums, and were not allowed to exclude high-risk enrolees from cover. In 1989 these regulations were removed, effectively allowing health insurers to risk-rate the cover which they provided, and exclude 'medically uninsurables'. Data were obtained from the office of the health insurance regulator (the Registrar of Medical Schemes) for the period 1985-95, and consisted of the statutory returns from all registered medical schemes for each year during the study period. Multiple regression methods were used to assess the determinants of changes in the risk pools of insurers, and their costs. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal models were estimated. Unadjusted data suggest changes in risk-pooling since the deregulation period after 1985. Health insurers with open enrolment had worse than average risk profiles in the 1980s, but this reversed by the early 1990s, leaving them with significantly better risk profiles by 1995. Worsening risk profiles were associated with decreasing fund size, higher loss-ratios and past premium increases. Most models showed that risk rating of premiums was consistently associated with higher premiums, after adjustment for risk, quality, scale and other environmental differences between insurers. Likely explanations include the additional costs required for marketing and underwriting risk-rated policies, insufficient incentives to use cost-control techniques, and higher levels of moral hazard associated with diminished risk-pooling. Current re-regulation of risk-pooling within medical schemes may thus improve both equity and efficiency of private health care cover.