SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Forecasting”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

PubMed1981

GMENAC: its manpower forecasting framework.

The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) was an advisory group to the Secretary, US Department of Health and Human Services. Its charter ended September 30, 1980. It submitted 107 recommendations to achieve a better balance between future physician requirements and future physician supply, by specialty and geography. Among its contributions were the development of a manpower forecasting framework and series of models which are described here, together with the results of these models. These models may have significant utility in future human resource planning at both national and local levels.

Delphi Technique↗

PubMed1987

Forecasting coronary heart disease incidence, mortality, and cost: the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model.

A computer simulation model was developed to project the future mortality, morbidity, and cost of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States population. The model contains a demographic-epidemiologic (DE) submodel, which stimulates the distribution of coronary risk factors and the conditional incidence of CHD in a demographically evolving population; a "bridge" submodel, which determines the outcome of the initial CHD event; and a disease history (DH) submodel, which simulates subsequent events in persons with a previous CHD event. The user of the model may simulate the effects of interventions, either preventive (i.e., risk factor modification) or therapeutic, upon mortality, morbidity, and cost for up to a 30-year period. If there were no future changes in risk factors or the efficacy of therapies after 1980, baseline projections indicate that the aging of the population, and especially the maturation of the post-World War II baby-boom generation, would increase CHD prevalence and annual incidence, mortality, and costs by about 40-50 per cent by the year 2010. Unprecedented reductions in risk factors would be required to offset these demographic effects on the absolute incidence of CHD. The specific forecasts could be inaccurate, however, as a consequence of erroneous assumptions or misestimated baseline data, and the model awaits validation based on actual future data.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

International migration destination forecast concerning the region "Lazio.".

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to different kinds of problems, when it was necessary to simulate and forecast how nonlinear dynamic complex systems worked since the mid 1980's. Currently, ANNs are proposed either as a substitute technique for database analysis or alternating with more traditional classical statistical analysis. This article presents the results of a statistical and a Neural Network analysis, applied to a sociological database in order to systematically explore how these models work, their applications, and both their strong and weak points.

Artificial Intelligence↗

PubMed2026

Multimodal Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Early Detection and Forecasting of Plant Diseases.

Plant diseases destroy 20-40% of global food production annually, posing a critical threat to food security for a projected population of 9.7 billion by 2050. Conventional diagnostic approaches relying on expert visual assessment are slow, costly, and unsuitable for modern agricultural scales. While deep convolutional neural networks demonstrated early promise, single-modality, image-centric systems consistently fail under real-world field conditions characterized by variable lighting, co-occurring infections, and cultivar diversity. This review synthesizes a decade of progress across four interconnected frontiers: the evolution of deep learning architectures for plant disease detection; the adaptation of foundation models including CLIP, SAM, and DINOv2 to agricultural contexts; the development of multimodal fusion frameworks integrating imagery, environmental, genomic, and hyperspectral data; and the transition from static disease diagnosis to descriptive comparison of reported metrics, which suggested that multimodal approaches frequently reported improved diagnostic performance relative to corresponding single-modality baselines, although direct cross-study comparison was limited by methodological heterogeneity. A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines identifies eligible comparative studies. Descriptive comparison of reported performance metrics across these studies indicated that multimodal approaches generally achieved higher accuracy and sensitivity than single-modality models, particularly for pre-symptomatic disease detection. Eight critical research gaps are identified, including the absence of a unified agricultural foundation model and limited climate-aware forecasting under non-stationary climate projections. A structured research agenda is proposed to accelerate translation from laboratory performance to globally equitable, field-deployable crop protection systems.

convolutional neural networks↗

PubMed1990

Comparison of results of Chinese and American forecasting of nursing curriculum needs.

This study used Mengel's (1987) Round Three Questionnaire results from the Fellows of the American Academy of Nursing and baccalaureate nurse educators of Taiwan to compare perceived importance of nursing curriculum needs. The t-test was used as a test of difference between the two groups. Ninety-nine of 129 items were significantly different (p less than .05). This result showed that the forecasting of nursing curriculum needs between R.O.C. and the U.S. generic baccalaureate nursing faculty are different in many ways; specific content areas, sites for clinical experience, and perceived baccalaureate nursing curriculum needs by the year 1995. R.O.C. nurse educators value more highly than the American group six specific content areas: midwifery, nuclear medicine/nursing, space medicine/nursing, geropsychiatry, critical care nursing, and cardiac rehabilitation. American nurse educators pay more attention to 16 specific content areas: palliative care, family and social support systems for the adult, human responses to actual and potential health problems, alcohol, substance abuse and toxicology, life cycle effects on family dynamics, gerentology, health needs of the adolescent, and increasing patient compliance. The emergency care units are placed higher by the R.O.C. nurse educators than by the American group for clinical experiences. R.O.C. nurse educators rated as more important than the American group the ability to speak a second language, the management of contracted nursing services, entrepreneurial activities, and occupational nursing.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cross-Cultural Comparison↗

PubMed1998

A versatile model of disease transmission applied to forecasting bovine tuberculosis dynamics in white-tailed deer populations.

A model was derived for disease transmission in dynamic host populations and its application was demonstrated in forecasting possible outcomes of a bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) epidemic in a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. The approach was mechanistic, based disease transmission on the probability of each susceptible individual becoming infected per unit time, and afforded the flexibility necessary to model epidemics in dynamic wildlife populations. This approach was applied to a sex- and age-structured deer population model. This model predicted that tuberculosis prevalence in a white-tailed deer population could rise from approximately 3% to about 21% over 25 yr, and that neither lowered deer survival nor lowered transmission would be completely effective in eliminating disease from the population. Maternal transmission appeared unimportant to modeled tuberculosis dynamics; in contrast, disease was not maintained for > 15 yr in models lacking lateral transmission.

Animals↗

PubMed1990

Unit dose pharmacy workload forecasting: validation of the pharmacy service unit model.

Departmental efficiency is a priority issue for hospital administration as third party payers maintain or reduce the level of reimbursement. This study validates the PHASU (PHArmacy Service Unit) model, which predicts the workload and productivity of a unit dose pharmacy. A PHASU equivalency system enabled the authors to develop a comparative standard for all pharmacy procedures. The procedure most reflective of workload is unit dose orders. Predicted productivity and staff requirements compare favorably to management engineering determinations. The PHASU model represents a reliable workload forecasting instrument that pharmacy managers can prospectively incorporate in the support of current and future pharmacy services.

Efficiency↗

PubMed1990

Forecasting change.

Planning the use of resources is central to the NHS reforms. In the first of a series on forecasting the impact of change on the health service Dr Roger Beech, Jayne Thompson and John Smyth examine the use of computer modelling.

Computer Simulation↗

PubMed1990

1991 forecast: the year of restructuring.

How is the foodservice industry faring under the clouds of three big uncertainties--oil prices, recession and war? All things considered, its doing quite well. This annual status report of commercial and institutional business shows fast food, catering, nursing homes and employee feeding with growth percentages on the good, left side of the decimal point. Our forecast includes business trends to watch, food trends to guide menu planning and pricing, and interior- and kitchen-design trends that can be a blueprint for a successful new year.

Commerce↗

PubMed1992

Forecasting the medical care costs of the HIV epidemic.

The 1991 average cost of treating an AIDS patient was $32,000 a year, including inpatient, outpatient, home care, and other services. The figures in this first comprehensive forecast of the cost of treating all people with HIV is relevant for the policymakers developing budgets for health services--and thus helping to shape the home care industry.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed1992

Forecasting the adoption of new medical technology using the Bass model.

A mathematical model, the Bass model, was used to forecast the adoption of new medical technology based on durable equipment. When the model was applied to five successful medical technologies, actual unit sales were predicted for three. The technologies investigated are computed tomography (CT scan), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound, hemodialysis, and lithotripsy. Because unit sales data for dialysis and ultrasound could not be obtained or estimated from secondary sources for the years immediately after market entry, application of the Bass model produced questionable results for those technologies. However, results for CT scan, MRI, and lithotripsy suggest that this model can be used to predict the adoption of new medical technology based on durable equipment when annual unit sales data can be estimated for the period immediately after market entry.

Data Collection↗

PubMed1984

Productivity monitoring systems: their use in management planning, forecasting, and labor budgeting.

The productivity monitoring system (PMS) has long proved itself a useful and necessary management tool for controlling scarce and costly labor resources. Here, the reader is introduced to the use of the PMS within the hospital industry. The general concern with controlling productivity in hospitals is presented within the context of regulatory change and overall cost-consciousness, followed by a description of a successful PMS and the information it provides. Techniques and an example for using PMSs in workload forecasting are also provided.

Budgets↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Forecasters of a more cost-effective future. Interview by Joyce Gildea.

Dr. Linda H. Aiken is The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Vice President who evaluates health-related programs funded by this large and influential organization. In this interview, the first of several with executives of foundations whose efforts often forecast effective approaches to health care and cost problems, Dr Aiken discusses The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's funding interests.

Forecasting↗

PubMed1988

Demand forecasting and targeting of MRI services.

As more hospitals acquire MRI and freestanding diagnostic imaging centers proliferate, strategies to develop market share must be combined with financial projections from the forecast of demand for MRI services. The second-generation MRI projection method developed by the American Hospital Association provides detailed estimates of inpatient and outpatient CT and MRI scans for 229 international Classification of Diseases codes, which can be used to target specific practitioners and product lines for MRI services.

American Hospital Association↗

PubMed1987

Imaging industry forecast.

From radiography to holography, imaging techniques are continuing to undergo innovative and sometimes revolutionary improvements. Representatives of several diagnostic imaging equipment manufacturers recently surveyed the state-of-the-art in various modalities and made forecasts for further technical developments. As one representative says, "None of the modalities is at a stage where there is no more room for improvement."

Diagnostic Imaging↗

PubMed1999

Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment.

This article highlights Procter & Gamble's (P&G's) current success and future direction of creating consumer value and improving trading partner relationships through electronic data communication, including the future vision of the company's ultimate supply system and CPFR--Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment.

Commerce↗

PubMed2000

Forecasting health expenditures: short, medium, and long (long) term.

As the forecasting perspective changes from short to medium to long run, the appropriate measure of health spending and the choice of which variables to hold constant and which to include changes. In the short run, current dollar spending is the best unit and the primary factors affecting spending are contracts (insurance, labor) and inflation. In the medium run, real per capita health expenditures are a better measure and prior growth of income is the primary factor. In the long run, the percentage of gross domestic product is the best measure and the structure of the health system and operation of budget constraints become the most important determinants. Accuracy of +/- 1-2 percent per year is obtainable. A major issue is whether the recent moderation in the rate of growth of spending is a pause or a turning point.

Delivery of Health Care↗

PubMed2000

The economic burden of prostate cancer in Canada: forecasts from the Montreal Prostate Cancer Model.

BACKGROUND: We developed an economic model of prostate cancer management from diagnosis until death. We have used the Montreal Prostate Cancer Model to estimate the total economic burden of the disease in a cohort of Canadian men. METHODS: Using this Markov state-transition simulation model, we estimated the probability of prostate cancer, annual prostate cancer progression rates and associated direct medical costs according to patient age, tumour stage and grade, and treatment modalities in a 1997 cohort of Canadian men. The estimated lifetime costs of prostate cancer included the costs of clinical staging, initial treatments and complications, follow-up cancer therapies, routine outpatient care, and palliative care following metastatic disease. RESULTS: The clinical burden of prostate cancer forecasted using the model was similar to the projections of the National Cancer Institute. In the 1997 cohort of 5.8 million Canadian men between 40 and 80 years old, prostate cancer would be diagnosed in an estimated 701,491 men (12.1%) over their lifetime. Direct medical costs would total $9.76 billion, or $3.89 billion when discounted 5% annually. INTERPRETATION: The Montreal Prostate Cancer Model indicates that the economic burden of prostate cancer to Canada's health care system will be substantial. Further analyses are needed to identify the most efficient means of treating this disease.

Adult↗