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PubMed2005

Incidence and predictors of cardiac perforation after permanent pacemaker placement.

BACKGROUND: Pericardial effusion, a sign of cardiac perforation, may complicate permanent pacemaker placement. Risk factors for development of post-permanent pacemaker effusion have not been evaluated. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of symptomatic pericardial effusion after permanent pacemaker placement. METHODS: The Mayo Clinic pacemaker and echocardiogram databases were cross-referenced. From 1995 to 2003, 4,280 permanent pacemakers were implanted. Fifty (1.2%) patients developed significant effusion and symptoms consistent with perforation. They were randomly matched with 100 patients without effusion after permanent pacemaker placement. RESULTS: The strongest predictors of postimplant effusion by univariate analysis were the concomitant use of a temporary transvenous pacemaker (hazard ratio [HR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-6.2, P = .001) or steroid use within 7 days prior to implant (HR 4.1, 95% CI 1.1-10, P = .003). Weaker predictors were use of helical screw ventricular leads, body mass index (BMI) <20, older age, and longer fluoroscopy times. Variables associated with lower risk of perforation were right ventricular systolic pressure >35 mmHg (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.44-0.97, P = .01) or BMI >30 (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.93, P = .01). Multivariate predictors were use of temporary pacemaker (HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4-3.9, P = .01), helical screw leads (HR 2.5; 95% CI 1.4-3.8, P = .04), and steroids (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-5.4, P = .04). Right ventricular systolic pressure >35 mmHg was the only protective factor (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.92, P = .02). CONCLUSION: The incidence of postimplant effusions is low. In order to minimize periprocedural permanent pacemaker effusions, temporary pacemaker placement should be avoided unless essential, and particular care should be taken when placing a permanent pacemaker in patients who are taking steroids.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection.

BACKGROUND: If acute aortic dissection is a highly lethal disease. There were few reports addressing predictors of in-hospital mortality of this disease in southern Taiwan. METHODS: If from January 1, 1989, to December 31, 2001, patients with acute aortic dissection were enrolled. Patient demographics, history, clinical characteristics, and laboratory examinations were reviewed. Univariate testing followed by logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: If in total, 198 (146 male) patients with mean age of 60.7+/-11.6 years were enrolled. The in-hospital mortality rate was 34.8% in overall patients, 58.8% for type A dissection, and 14.8% for type B dissection. There were five independent predictors of in-hospital mortality: presence of hypertension [odds ratio (OR)=0.09, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.02-0.36, p<0.001], type A dissection (OR=8.26, 95% CI=3.44-19.60, p<0.001), probable extravasation (pericardial effusion in type A dissection or left side pleural effusion in patients with involvement of descending thoracic aorta) (OR=2.70, 95% CI=1.14-6.41, p=0.024), visible intimal flap in ascending aorta in trans-thoracic echocardiography (OR=4.46, 95% CI=1.58-12.60, p=0.005), and acute renal deterioration (OR=3.85, 95% CI=1.36-10.87, p=0.011). CONCLUSIONS: If acute aortic dissection, especially type A, is with high mortality in southern Taiwan. There are five independent predictors of in-hospital mortality found in current analysis. Our result may remind doctors to find out their patients at high risk. Trans-thoracic echocardiography is a useful tool to find out patients at high risk because it is easily performed to check if there is pericardial effusion or visible intimal flap in ascending aorta.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2006

Turbulence dynamics: an independent predictor of late mortality after acute myocardial infarction.

INTRODUCTION: The prognostic value of heart rate turbulence for predicting mortality after acute myocardial infarction is well established. This study investigates a new measure of heart rate turbulence, termed turbulence dynamics, which quantifies the relationship between turbulence slope and underlying heart rate (HR(VPC)). METHODS: Six hundred eight patients participating in the European Myocardial Infarction Amiodarone Trial had > or =25 ventricular premature complexes/24 h. During a follow-up period of 21 months (median), 120 patients died. Turbulence dynamics was assessed as the slope of the regression line between turbulence slope and HR(VPC). Survival analyses included age, history of previous myocardial infarction, presence of diabetes mellitus, mean normal-to-normal interval, heart rate variability index, presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, left ventricular ejection fraction, turbulence onset and turbulence slope. All risk predictors were dichotomized at pre-defined cut-off points, turbulence dynamics was dichotomized at the median. Primary endpoint of the study was death of any cause. RESULTS: In most patients, turbulence slope was inversely correlated to HR(VPC). Univariately, turbulence dynamics was the second strongest risk predictor of mortality (relative risk 2.4 (95% confidence interval 1.6-3.6), p<0.001). Multivariately, turbulence dynamics was the third strongest risk predictor (1.7 (1.1-2.7, p<0.01)). CONCLUSION: In the patient population studied, turbulence dynamics was an independent predictor of mortality. The results indicate that in addition to the overall level of autonomic function the loss of autonomic adaptability contributes to prognosis.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of in-hospital mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention for cardiogenic shock.

OBJECTIVES: The mortality of patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains high, despite early revascularization. Current knowledge of predictors of death is limited. BACKGROUND: The pathophysiologic understanding of CS after acute myocardial infarction has shifted from a mere hemodynamic disorder to a more complex approach including imbalance in metabolic functions. METHODS: In 45 consecutive patients (71.4+/-13 years) with CS complicating STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) serum levels of lactate, glucose and uric acid on coronary care unit (CCU) admission were measured. The end-point was in-hospital death. RESULTS: The following parameters, on CCU admission, were univariate predictors of in-hospital mortality: serum glucose >200 mg/dl (OR=11.3, p=0.002), serum creatinine >1.5 mg/dl (OR=12.7, p=0.003), uric acid >6.5 mg/dl (OR=6.7, p=0.016), lactate >6.5 mmol/l (OR=54, p<0.0001), age > or =75 years (OR=8.5, p=0.002), history of hypertension (OR=8.3, p=0.003) and TIMI flow post PCI < or = 2 (OR=12.9, p=0.02). At multivariate analysis, after adjustment for sex, age, hypertension and diabetes, lactate >6.5 mmol/l and TIMI flow post PCI < or = 2 were still independent predictors of in-hospital mortality (OR=295, p=0.01; OR=19.5, p=0.04, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Hyperlactatemia, hyperglycemia and increased levels of uric acid on CCU admission are univariate predictors of in-hospital death. Moreover, at multivariate analysis, hyperlactatemia (>6.5 mmol/l) is an independent indicator of in-hospital death in CS patients complicating STEMI.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Interleukin-18/interleukin-10 ratio is an independent predictor of recurrent coronary events during a 1-year follow-up in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: The pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-18 has been suggested to play a role in atherogenesis and atheromatous plaque rupture leading to the acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Conversely, the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 seems to have an atheroprotective role. Patients with unstable coronary artery disease show an imbalance between serum levels of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, and studies have shown that IL-18/IL-10 ratio is an independent predictor of adverse in-hospital events in patients with ACS. We assessed the long-term prognostic significance of admission interleukin-18 (IL-18)/interleukin-10 (IL-10) ratio for recurrent coronary events during a 1-year follow-up in patients presenting with an ACS. METHODS: We assessed independent predictors of the combined end-point using multiple logistic regression analysis, in 186 patients (138 men, 65+/-12 years) with ACS (75 STEMI, 65 NSTEMI and 46 unstable angina). The composite of cardiac death and re-hospitalization with non-fatal myocardial infarction, or unstable angina, was the pre-specified study end-point. Serum IL-10 and IL-18 levels were measured at study entry using commercially available ELISAs. RESULTS: During the 1-year follow-up, 48 (26%) patients had recurrent cardiac events and 138 (74%) were event-free. IL-18/IL-10 ratio predicted the occurrence of adverse cardiac events (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.37-2.65, p<0.001), and was found to be an independent predictor among other established biochemical and clinical risk markers (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.55-3.42, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Serum IL-18/IL-10 ratio is an independent predictor of recurrent coronary events during long-term follow-up in patients presenting with ACS. Our study further supports the hypothesis that the balance between pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines may be an important determinant of patient outcome, suggesting a pathogenic role in plaque progression and instability.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary angioplasty.

BACKGROUND: Patients with baseline renal dysfunction (BRD) have an increased cardiovascular risk and a worse prognosis after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Besides, the appearance of worsening renal failure (WRF) after an AMI is an independent predictor of worse prognosis too. The aim of the present study was to determine the in-hospital prognostic significance of BRD and WRF in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who underwent successful primary angioplasty (PA). METHODS: Seventy-six consecutive patients with STEMI diagnosis were admitted to our department and treated with PA successfully. Two groups were established in relation to the presence of BRD on admission (defined by a ClCr<60 ml/min/1.73 m2, estimated by the modification of diet in renal disease equation). We compared their baseline characteristics and their in-hospital mortality and developing of WRF. RESULTS: BRD was associated to a greater in-hospital mortality (11.5% vs. 2.7%, p=0.009) and a higher incidence of WRF (12.2% vs. 2.5%, p<0.001). After adjusting by confounding factors, the multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that BRD was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.5, CI 95% 1.5-3.8, p<0.001). Besides, WRF was associated to a greater in-hospital mortality too, independent of the presence of BRD (OR 1.9, CI 95% 1.3-2.4, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: BRD was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI who underwent successful PA. Likewise, WRF occurring in these patients was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality too.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Year of treatment as independent predictor of relapse-free survival in patients with localized prostate cancer treated with definitive radiotherapy in the PSA era.

PURPOSE: To study the use of the year of therapy as an independent predictor of outcomes, serving as a proxy for time-related changes in therapy and tumor factors in the treatment of prostate cancer. Accounting for these changes would facilitate the retrospective comparison of outcomes for patients treated in different periods. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Nine institutions combined data on 4,537 patients with Stages T1 and T2 adenocarcinoma of the prostate who had a pretherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and biopsy Gleason score, and who had received > or = 60 Gy external beam radiotherapy without neoadjuvant androgen deprivation or planned adjuvant androgen deprivation. All patients were treated between 1986 and 1995. Two groups were defined: those treated before 1993 (Yr < or = 92) vs. 1993 and after (Yr > or = 93). Patients treated before 1993 had their follow-up truncated to make the follow-up time similar to that for patients treated in 1993 and after. Therefore, the median follow-up time was 6.0 years for both groups (Yr < or = 92 and Yr > or = 93). Two separate biochemical failure endpoints were used. Definition A consisted of the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology Oncology endpoint (three PSA rises backdated, local failure, distant failure, or hormonal therapy). Definition B consisted of PSA level greater than the current nadir plus two, local failure, distant failure, or hormonal therapy administered. Multivariate analyses for factors affecting PSA disease-free survival (PSA-DFS) rates using both endpoints were performed for all cases using the following variables: T stage (T1b, T1c, T2a vs. T2b, T2c), pretreatment PSA (continuous variable), biopsy Gleason score (continuous variable), radiation dose (continuous variable), and year of treatment (continuous variable). The year variable (defined as the current year minus 1960) ranged from 26 to 35. To evaluate the effect of radiation dose, the multivariate analyses were repeated with the 3,897 cases who had received < 72 Gy using the same variables except for radiation dose. RESULTS: For all 4,537 patients, the 5- and 8-year PSA-DFS estimate using definition A (ASTRO consensus definition) was 60% and 55%, respectively. The 8-year PSA-DFS estimate for Yr < 93 vs. Yr > or = 93 was 52% vs. 57%, respectively (p < 0.001). In the subgroup of patients receiving < 72 Gy, the 8-year PSA-DFS estimate for Yr < 93 vs. Yr > or = 93 was 52% and 55%, respectively (p = 0.004). The differences in PSA-DFS rates in the different subgroups were similar when definition B was used. The multivariate analyses for all 4,537 cases with either PSA-DFS definition revealed T stage (p < 0.001), pretherapy PSA level (p < 0.001), Gleason score (p < 0.001), radiation dose (p < 0.001), and year of treatment (p < 0.001) to be independent predictors of outcomes. The multivariate analyses restricted to the 3,897 cases receiving < 72 Gy still revealed year of treatment to be an independent predictor of outcomes (p < 0.001), in addition to T stage (p < 0.001), pretherapy PSA level (p < 0.001), and Gleason score (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Independent of tumor stage, radiation dose, failure definition, and follow-up parameters, the year in which RT was performed was an independent predictor of outcomes. These findings indicate a more favorable presentation of localized prostate cancer in current years that is not necessarily reflected in the patients' PSA levels or Gleason scores. This phenomenon is probably related to a combination of factors, such as screening, increased patient awareness leading to earlier biopsies and earlier diagnosis, more aggressive pretherapy staging, and unrecognized improvements in therapy, but perhaps also to changing tumor biology. Outcomes predictions should be based on contemporaneous series. Alternatively, the year of therapy could be incorporated as a variable in outcomes analyses of localized prostate cancer patients treated in different periods within the PSA era.

Disease-Free Survival↗

PubMed2003

Comparing symptoms of depression and anxiety as predictors of cardiac events and increased health care consumption after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to compare symptoms of depression and anxiety as predictors of incomplete recovery after a first myocardial infarction (MI). BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms have been related to post-MI mortality and health care consumption, but little is known about the effect of anxiety. We wanted to examine the effect of emotional distress on health care consumption and whether depressive symptomatology is a better predictor of prognosis than anxiety. METHODS: Subjects were 318 men (mean age 58 years) who completed the depression, anxiety, and hostility scales from the 90-item symptom check list after they survived a first MI. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 3.4 years, there were 25 cardiac events (fatal or non-fatal MI). Symptoms of both depression (hazard ratio [HR] 2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04 to 5.18; p = 0.039) and anxiety (HR 3.01, 95% CI 1.20 to 7.60; p = 0.019) were associated with cardiac events, adjusting for age, left ventricular ejection fraction, and use of antidepressants. However, a multivariate analysis including all three negative emotions indicated that symptoms of anxiety (HR 2.79, 95% CI 1.11 to 7.03; p = 0.029) explained away the relationship between depressive symptoms and cardiac events. Regarding health care consumption, anxiety (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.22; p = 0.005), but not depression/hostility, was a predictor of cardiac rehospitalization and frequent visits at the cardiac outpatient clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms of depression and anxiety were associated with cardiac events. Anxiety was an independent predictor of both cardiac events and increased health care consumption and accounted for the relationship between depressive symptoms and prognosis. Symptoms of anxiety need to be considered in the risk stratification and treatment of post-MI patients.

Aged↗

PubMed2004

Reduced glomerular filtration rate in asymptomatic diabetic patients: predictor of increased risk for cardiac events independent of albuminuria.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of a reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with and without albuminuria and its ability to predict cardiac events in asymptomatic diabetic patients undergoing stress-rest thallium-201 myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography. BACKGROUND: Diabetic patients have a higher prevalence of asymptomatic coronary heart disease. Therefore, identifying predictors of cardiac events in asymptomatic diabetic patients is needed. METHODS: In 269 asymptomatic patients, baseline evaluation included diabetes-related complications, including creatinine clearance (CrCl) and albuminuria. During follow-up (mean 2.3 +/- 1.0 years), all cardiac events were recorded. RESULTS: Seventy-seven patients (29%) had a reduced GFR defined by CrCl <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Compared with the 177 patients with CrCl >/=60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), the reduced GFR group was older (p < 0.0001), had a longer duration of diabetes (p = 0.002), and had a higher prevalence of albuminuria (p = 0.04). Nevertheless, 35% of the reduced GFR group had normoalbuminuria. Patients with reduced GFR had a significant two-fold increase in total cardiac events (unstable angina, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiac procedures) (25% vs. 13%, p = 0.019), and multivariate analysis found that reduced GFR was an independent predictor of cardiac events (odds ratio [OR] 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1 to 4.46). Other independent predictors of cardiac events included stress-induced abnormal myocardial perfusion imaging (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3 to 7.5), an electrocardiographic ischemic response (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.01 to 7.14), and peripheral artery disease (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.05 to 4.23); however, albuminuria was not. CONCLUSIONS: A reduced GFR was common in our group of asymptomatic diabetic patients and was associated with a two-fold increase in cardiac events. Multivariate analysis found that reduced GFR independent of albuminuria was a significant predictor of cardiac events.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of failure after pancreaticoduodenectomy for ampullary carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Complete resection offers the only potential cure for ampullary carcinoma. We analyzed factors that contribute to treatment failure and survival in patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for ampullary carcinoma. STUDY DESIGN: We retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between August 1994 and August 2003 for ampullary carcinoma. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic data were collected. Chi-square analysis was used for categorical data and the t-test was used for continuous variables. Kaplan-Meier analyses were compared using the log-rank test to examine patient survival. RESULTS: Forty-three patients (24 men) aged 63.7 +/- 11.4 years (standard deviation) were followed for a mean of 23.9 months (median 660 days, range 18 to 2,249 days). Jaundice (n = 33) and weight loss (n = 13) were the most common presenting symptoms. Stage (p < 0.01) and degree of differentiation (p < 0.029) were significant predictors of failure by univariate analysis. But only stage (p < 0.04) was a significant predictor by multivariate analysis. Further analysis revealed that nodal status (p < 0.001), but not tumor grade, was a significant predictor of treatment failure. Neither demographic nor clinical variables were significant predictors. Five-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 67.4% and 51.4%, respectively. Both metastases and disease recurrence had significant impact on patient survival. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor stage is associated with treatment failure after pancreaticoduodenectomy for ampullary carcinoma and may identify candidates for adjuvant therapy. Because an aggressive surgical approach can be adopted safely with the best chance for cure, we recommend that pancreaticoduodenectomy be offered to all patients with ampullary tumors when malignancy or dysplasia is in question.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predictors of do not resuscitate orders in the nursing home.

BACKGROUND: The outcome of cardiopulmonary resuscitation of residents of long-term care facilities is poor. However, only about one half of residents of long term care facilities have a do not resuscitate (DNR) order. The remainder usually have resuscitation by order or by default policy. Understanding predictors of DNR may help clinicians address end-of-life issues with the older long-term care population. OBJECTIVES: To determine (1) the prevalence of DNR orders, and (2) predictors of DNR orders in older institutionalized individuals in a large community teaching nursing home. METHODS: A cross-sectional chart review study of 177 consecutively located older patients from an 899-bed academic long-term care facility. RESULTS: The prevalence of a DNR order was 40%. The frequency of ordering DNR was greater in subjects who were 85 years or older compared with subjects who were younger than 85 years (57% vs. 30%, P < .05). Ordering DNR was associated significantly with race (49% of whites compared with 13% African Americans, P < .05) but not with sex. Subjects with a DNR order were more likely to have been diagnosed with depression (52% vs. 35%, P < .05) but not dementia, and overall had greater number of medical conditions (5.9 +/- 2 vs. 5.1 +/- 2, P < .05) compared with subjects without DNR orders. The frequency of DNR orders did not significantly differ between subjects who were able to ambulate (with or without assistance) compared with subjects who were wheelchair or bed bound. Using logistic regression analysis, only age (with a B of -1.04 and P of .017) and race (with a B of 1.4 and a P of .01) were independent predictors of DNR status. CONCLUSION: Fewer than half of this sample of long-term care residents had a DNR order. Among seven factors studied, only age and race were independent predictors of DNR status in the nursing home.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Hepatic steatosis in chronic hepatitis B and C: predictors, distribution and effect on fibrosis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and C (CHC) are commonly associated with hepatic steatosis. The aims of this study were to investigate predictors of hepatic steatosis, and their impact on inflammation and fibrosis in CHB and CHC. METHODS: Consecutive patients with either CHB or CHC who underwent a liver biopsy at The Alfred Hospital between April and September 2002 were included. Histological analysis of liver biopsies was performed by two hepatopathologists blinded to the clinical data. RESULTS: Ninety-one patients were analysed including 17 patients with CHB and 74 with CHC. CHC genotype 3, C-peptide, glucose and waist circumference were independent predictors of extent of Brunt steatosis grade, while CHC genotype 3, C-peptide and waist circumference were independent predictors of microvesicular steatosis grade. Alcohol intake and age were predictors of hepatic fibrosis. There was a trend toward a correlation between both Brunt steatosis and microvesicular steatosis grades and fibrosis progression rate in CHC genotype non-3. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatic steatosis is common in chronic hepatitis B and C, and is associated with waist circumference, glucose, C-peptide and chronic hepatitis C genotype 3. Steatosis grade appears to relate to hepatic fibrosis progression rate in chronic hepatitis C genotype non-3.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of reversible mild cognitive impairment after stroke: a 2-year follow-up study.

UNLABELLED: Many studies have investigated mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in the context of prodromal dementia, but few have investigated recovery from MCI. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of reversible MCI after stroke and to identify factors related to recovery. METHODS: One hundred and eighteen patients with a first ever cerebral stroke were followed up for 2 years. Neuropsychological assessment was performed at 1, 6, 12, and 24 months poststroke. Possible predictors of reversible MCI were demographic variables, baseline MMSE scores, presence of stroke risk factors, and CT variables. Poststroke MCI was diagnosed when there was a deficit in at least one cognitive domain, without their being demented. Recovery was considered when MCI was no longer present. RESULTS: Twenty-four (20.3%) patients were classified as having permanent reversible MCI and were compared with patients without recovery. Most patients recovered from MCI between the first and second assessments (19.7% versus 13.1% and 2.0% later on). Higher baseline MMSE scores and female sex were independent predictors of recovery (OR(High MMSE)=9.9; OR(female sex)=2.8). Neither stroke-related risk factors nor CT variables were predictors of favorable outcome. CONCLUSION: About 20% of patients with poststroke MCI recover from MCI. Higher MMSE scores at baseline and female sex are independent predictors of this recovery.

Antihypertensive Agents↗

PubMed2006

Body mass index is not a good predictor of bone density: results from WHI, CHS, and EPIDOS.

Body mass index (BMI) is often used to predict bone mineral density (BMD). This may be flawed. Large epidemiologic studies with BMI and BMD data were analyzed. Weight alone is a better predictor of BMD than BMI. Thus, when selecting individuals for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, weight should be used instead of BMI. Low body mass index (BMI) is frequently suggested as one of the factors that indicates the need for bone mineral density (BMD) screening for osteoporosis. The inclusion of the height-squared term in the denominator of this predictive factor is taken on faith or from other data, but it may not be reasonable in this case. We used data from three large epidemiologic studies to test the BMI, height, and weight as predictors of BMD: (1) the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) with 11,390 women; (2) the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) with 1,578 men and women; (3) and EPIDOS with 7,598 women. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry data on one or more BMD sites, the total hip, the femoral neck, and the lumbar spine from the three studies, as well as height and weight were examined. Correlation coefficients for BMI and weight with BMD were compared. Log transformed models were evaluated to compare the strengths of the models. The result of weight alone was a much better predictor of BMD for all sites in the three studies than BMI. Taller participants had larger BMDs than would have been predicted by BMI. In conclusion, BMIs should not be used to select individuals for BMD screening. A regression model using weight alone or weight and height is a better predictor of BMD in all three populations.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗

PubMed2006

Positive predictors for antidepressive response to prefrontal repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS).

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is a brain stimulation technique which had recently been investigated as a putative antidepressant intervention. However, there is little agreement about clinically useful predictors of rTMS outcome. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to determine whether specific biographical, clinical, and psychopathological parameters are associated with the antidepressant response to rTMS in a large sample of 70 depressive patients. We performed a logistic regression analysis in 70 patients with major depressive disorder treated with rTMS of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex testing the predictive value of various domains of the depression syndrome as well as the variables episode duration, degree of treatment resistance, and CORE criteria. Response was defined as a 50% reduction of the initial Hamilton score (HAMD). After two weeks of treatment, 21% of the patients showed a response to rTMS. The binary logistic regression model correctly assigned 86.7% of the responders and 96.4% of the non-responders to their final response group. In the model, a high level of sleep disturbances was a significant predictor for treatment response to rTMS. Also, a low score of treatment resistance and a short duration of episode were positive predictors. These findings provide new evidence that especially pronounced sleep disturbances may be a significant clinical predictor of a response to rTMS. Prospective rTMS studies are necessary to validate the predictive value of the derived model.

Antidepressive Agents↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predictors of humeral head ischemia after intracapsular fracture of the proximal humerus.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate predictors of fracture-induced humeral head ischemia. Between February 1998 and December 2001, 100 intracapsular fractures of the proximal humerus, treated by open surgery, were included in a prospective surgical evaluation protocol (mean age, 60 years; minimum, 21 years; maximum, 88 years; 45 men; 57 right shoulders). Fracture morphology was assessed following a structured questionnaire and based on radiographic and intraoperative findings. Perfusion was assessed intraoperatively by observation of backflow after a borehole was drilled into the central part of the head in all shoulders and by intraosseous laser Doppler flowmetry in 46. Good predictors of ischemia were the length of the metaphyseal head extension (accuracy, 0.84 for calcar segments <8 mm), the integrity of the medial hinge (accuracy, 0.79 for disrupted hinge), and the basic fracture pattern (accuracy, 0.7 for combined types 2, 9, 10, 11, and 12). Moderate and poor predictors of ischemia were fractures consisting of four fragments (accuracy, 0.67), angular displacement of the head (accuracy, 0.62 for angulations over 45 degrees ), the amount of displacement of the tuberosities (accuracy, 0.61 for displacement over 10 mm), glenohumeral dislocation (accuracy, 0.49), head-split components (accuracy, 0.49), and fractures consisting of three fragments (accuracy, 0.38). When the above criteria (anatomic neck, short calcar, disrupted hinge) were combined, positive predictive values of up to 97% could be obtained. The most relevant predictors of ischemia were the length of the dorsomedial metaphyseal extension, the integrity of the medial hinge, and the basic fracture type determined with the binary description system.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Speed choice versus celeration behavior as traffic accident predictor.

INTRODUCTION: The driver celeration behavior theory predicts that this variable is superior to all other variables as a predictor of individual traffic accident involvement, including the ever-important speed parameter. The study was undertaken to test this prediction. Also, it was expected that most variables would associate fairly strongly. METHOD: The use of speed choice as a predictor of individual traffic accident record was discussed, and four different variants of this variable (maximum, net mean, gross mean, and standard deviation of speed) identified. These variables were then compared to celeration behavior as predictors of accident record of bus drivers in the same set of data. RESULTS: Celeration behavior was found to be slightly superior, in accordance with the prediction made from the driver celeration behavior theory, although the differences were not significant. Furthermore, the predictor variables were found to associate fairly strongly between themselves, with the exception of gross mean speed, and to have fair stability over time, especially when aggregated. CONCLUSIONS: These results tentatively confirm some of the predictions made from the driver celeration behavior theory. As the results for accidents were in the expected direction, but not significant, and the maximum speed variable may have suffered from a ceiling effect, the conclusion is provisional. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The correlations found were strong enough to warrant the use of celeration behavior as a predictive variable for transportation companies in their safety work.

Acceleration↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of operative mortality and cardiopulmonary morbidity in the National Emphysema Treatment Trial.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify predictors of operative mortality, pulmonary morbidity, and cardiovascular morbidity after lung volume reduction surgery. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Candidate predictors included demographic characteristics, physical condition characteristics, pulmonary function measures, measures of the distribution of emphysema as determined by radiologists and by means of computerized analysis of chest computed tomographic scans, and measures of exercise capacity, dyspnea, and quality of life. End points analyzed were operative mortality (death within 90 days of the operation), major pulmonary morbidities (tracheostomy, failure to wean, reintubation, pneumonia, and ventilator for > or =3 days), and cardiovascular morbidities (infarction, pulmonary embolus, or arrhythmia requiring treatment). RESULTS: Five hundred eleven patients in the non-high-risk group of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial underwent lung volume reduction. The incidence of operative mortality was 5.5%, major pulmonary morbidity occurred in 29.8% of patients, and cardiovascular morbidity occurred in 20.0% of patients. Predictors for these end points are as follows: [table: see text]. CONCLUSIONS: Although lung volume reduction can be performed in selected patients with acceptable mortality, the incidence of major cardiopulmonary morbidity remains high. The lone predictor for operative mortality of lung volume reduction was the presence of non-upper-lobe-predominant emphysema, as assessed by the radiologist. Pulmonary morbidity can be expected in elderly patients who have a low diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide and forced expiratory volume in 1 second. When assessing morbidity, the computer-assisted chest computed tomographic analysis proved useful only in predicting cardiovascular complications.

Aged↗