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A time series aggregation model for predicting the incidence of syphilis.

The incidence of infectious syphilis is much different from the number of reported cases in any given year; therefore, an estimate of the incidence is needed to formulate effective control programs for the future. A time series aggregation model that predicts the incidence of syphilis was developed. The model accounts for the number of treated but unreported cases, and it provides estimates of incidence for different age and racial groups. As an illustration the model was applied for estimation of the incidence of syphilis in the city of Chicago, Illinois. A sensitivity analysis revealed that a 10% variation in input parameters would cause an error of smaller than or equal to 4.1% in the estimates of incidence.

Age Factors↗

Modelling biological invasions: species traits, species interactions, and habitat heterogeneity.

In this paper we explore the integration of different factors to understand, predict and control ecological invasions, through a general cellular automaton model especially developed. The model includes life history traits of several species in a modular structure interacting multiple cellular automata. We performed simulations using field values corresponding to the exotic Gleditsia triacanthos and native co-dominant trees in a montane area. Presence of G. triacanthos juvenile bank was a determinant condition for invasion success. Main parameters influencing invasion velocity were mean seed dispersal distance and minimum reproductive age. Seed production had a small influence on the invasion velocity. Velocities predicted by the model agreed well with estimations from field data. Values of population density predicted matched field values closely. The modular structure of the model, the explicit interaction between the invader and the native species, and the simplicity of parameters and transition rules are novel features of the model.

Computer Simulation↗

Are recruitment patterns of the trunk musculature compatible with a synergy based on the maximization of endurance?

To verify that maximization of endurance is important among the functional criteria determining trunk muscle activation patterns, symmetric and asymmetric exertions were simulated using a detailed model consisting of 114 muscle slips crossing the lumbosacral junction and employing a cost function which maximizes endurance. First, the question whether meaningful comparisons can be made between activity predictions for individual muscle slips and surface EMG data recorded from larger anatomical entities was addressed. This was answered affirmatively, since activation patterns predicted by a coarse and a middle version of the model, in which activation was constrained to be equal within 14 or 32 groups of muscle slips, were similar to those predicted with each muscle slip controlled independently. Median correlation coefficients between activity vectors predicted by the simplified models and the detailed model were 0.88 and 0.97, respectively. The coarse model underestimated the endurance capacity by a median of 21%, the middle model by only 0.7%. Second, predicted activities within anatomical entities defined at this level of detail were compared to reference data derived from the literature (Lavender et al. 1992, Human Factors 34, 239-247; 1992, Journal of Orthopaedic Research 10, 691-700; Vink et al., 1988, Electromyography and Clinical Neurophysiology 28, 517-525). The predicted activity patterns of the erector spinae, external oblique and rectus abdominis muscles closely resembled the EMG patterns (r2 = 0.48-0.99). Furthermore, the observed distribution of activity between parts of the erector spinae muscle was adequately predicted.

Abdominal Muscles↗

Ocular limit cycles induced by delayed retinal feedback.

Lisberger's and Robinson's models of smooth pursuit predict very different results from altering retinal feedback delay. We have therefore investigated the effects of increasing the retinal feedback time delay in three normal human subjects by means of an artificial feedback paradigm. When additional delays were incorporated into the retinal feedback path a threshold was reached beyond which the eye exhibited sustained self-excited oscillations or "limit cycles". The oscillation period increased linearly (as the added delay was increased) with slopes ranging from 1.41 to 1.6 with zero-delay intercepts of between 212 and 306 ms. Contrary to our experimental findings the Robinson and Lisberger models predict that the plot of oscillation period against added delay should have a slope of 3.4 and 2.7 and an intercept of 479 and 554 ms, respectively. Neither model produced comparable limit cycles, both being unstable at delays greater than 280 ms. Our results imply that the models of smooth pursuit need to incorporate predictive control.

Adult↗

Recent advances in epidemiological field techniques in filariasis.

There have been very few advances in epidemiological field techniques for filariasis in recent years. Advances in other areas of study of filariasis have been published and a summary of some of those which have some application to field technology will be given. Studies on vectors involving host influences on the development of filariae and the use of DNA probes for vector speciation were reported as well as the development of techniques that yielded species-specific identification of larvae in mosquito vectors. Experiments on animal transmission potentials also have been described. Mathematical models are becoming popular for various biological systems. It is postulated that models will enable workers to make predictions on prevalence of diseases and effect of control measures. A model has been proposed for bancroftian filariasis transmission dynamics and frequency distribution of microfilariae in blood samples. Other statistical methodologies have been published relating to age and sex distribution and frequency distribution and one suggested that females have increased resistance to filariasis, especially in the reproductive years. Advances in diagnostic technologies are highly relevant to the epidemiology of filariasis. The development of antibody and especially antigen detection systems using monoclonal antibodies, DNA probes, and polymerase chain reactions, etc, will make a significant impact on the identification of infected persons. Findings along other lines may also have application to field epidemiology. The quantitative blood count (QBC) acridine orange hematocrit tube has also been found to be of value in diagnosis. Elevated levels of ecdysteroids found in other filarial infections should be tested in cases of lymphatic filariasis.

Animals↗

NTP-sensing by rRNA promoters in Escherichia coli is direct.

We showed previously that rrn P1 promoters require unusually high concentrations of the initiating nucleoside triphosphates (ATP or GTP, depending on the promoter) for maximal transcription in vitro. We proposed that this requirement for high initiating NTP concentrations contributes to control of the rrn P1 promoters from the seven Escherichia coli rRNA operons. However, the previous studies did not prove that variation in NTP concentration affects rrn P1 promoter activity directly in vivo. Here, we create conditions in vivo in which ATP and GTP concentrations are altered in opposite directions relative to one another, and we show that transcription from rrn P1 promoters that initiate with either ATP or GTP follows the concentration of the initiating NTP for that promoter. These results demonstrate that the effect of initiating NTP concentration on rrn P1 promoter activity in vivo is direct. As predicted by a model in which homeostatic control of rRNA transcription results, at least in part, from sensing of NTP concentrations by rrn P1 promoters, we show that inhibition of protein synthesis results in an increase in ATP concentration and a corresponding increase in transcription from rrnB P1. We conclude that translation is a major consumer of purine NTPs, and that NTP-sensing by rrn P1 promoters serves as a direct regulatory link between translation and ribosome synthesis.

Adenosine Triphosphate↗

Prediction of hyperglycemia in preterm newborn infants.

Many conditions are associated with hyperglycemia in preterm neonates because they are very susceptible to changes in carbohydrate homeostasis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of hyperglycemia in preterm infants undergoing glucose infusion during the first week of life, and to enumerate the main variables predictive of hyperglycemia. This prospective study (during 1994) included 40 preterm neonates (gestational age < 37 weeks); 511 determinations of glycemic status were made in these infants (average 12.8/infant), classified by gestational age, birth weight, glucose infusion rate and clinical status at the time of determination (based on clinical and laboratory parameters). The clinical status was classified as stable or unstable, as an indication of the stability or instability of the mechanisms governing glucose homeostasis at the time of determination of blood glucose; 59 episodes of hyperglycemia (11.5%) were identified. A case-control study was used (case = hyperglycemia; control = normoglycemia) to derive a model for predicting glycemia. The risk factors considered were gestational age (< or = 31 vs. > 31 weeks), birth weight (< or = 1500 vs. > 1500 g), glucose infusion rate (< or = 6 vs. > 6 mg/kg/min) and clinical status (stable vs. unstable). Multivariate analysis by logistic regression gave the following mathematical model for predicting the probability of hyperglycemia: 1/exp{-3.1437 + 0.5819(GA) + 0.9234(GIR) + 1.0978 (Clinical status)}The main predictive variables in our study, in increasing order of importance, were gestational age, glucose infusion rate and, the clinical status (stable or unstable) of the preterm newborn infant. The probability of hyperglycemia ranged from 4.1% to 36.9%.

Birth Weight↗

Moisture sorption kinetics for water-soluble substances. IV: Studies with mixtures of solids.

This paper extends earlier work from this laboratory concerning the sorption kinetics of water vapor on deliquescent water-soluble substances to mixtures of these solids. A theoretical model, based on heat transport control, excellently predicted a priori the rate of water uptake by a variety of binary mixtures of alkali halides and sugars. The rates for mixtures containing highly water-soluble quaternary ammonium salts, as either one or both of the components, were less successfully predicted as the combined water solubilities of the two components increased. It is concluded that water-soluble deliquescent substances, normally encountered in pharmaceutical dosage forms, rapidly form saturated aqueous solutions in the aqueous film formed as water vapor uptake proceeds, and that the water uptake rate can be predicted a priori from known and experimentally determinable parameters using the heat transport model.

Adsorption↗

Investigation and modelling approach of the mechanical properties of compacts made with binary mixtures of pharmaceutical excipients.

Three pharmaceutical excipients (microcrystalline cellulose, lactose, anhydrous calcium phosphate) and their binary mixtures were compacted to form compacts of various mean porosities. Some mechanical properties (Young's modulus, tensile strength and Brinell hardness) were studied on these compacts. The mechanical properties of the binary mixtures were not proportional to the mixture composition expressed in mass. More, for all the properties, a negative deviation was always observed from this linear relationship. In reference to a composition percolation phenomenon, critical mass fractions were detected from the graph mechanical property vs. mass composition of a mixture. The results obtained with Brinell hardness differed from the results of the Young's modulus and the tensile strength, i.e. the most plastic material in the binary mixture controlled the mixture behaviour. Secondly, a predictive model based on a statistical approach was proposed for the Young's modulus and the tensile strength. The validity of this model was verified on experimental data, and an interaction parameter used to characterize the affinity of the two compounds was calculated. Finally, the X-ray tomography technique was applied to the compacts of cellulose/phosphate mixtures to obtain cross-sections images of the compacts. The analysis of the cross-sections images allowed explaining the no linear relationship of the different mechanical properties results observed on these binary mixtures.

Cellulose↗

Electrohydraulic ventricular assist device development.

An electrohydraulic ventricular assist device has been developed. An axial flow pump driven by a brushless DC motor provides actuation. Energy is supplied by internal Ni/Cd batteries and by external Ag/Zn batteries, both rechargeable. Electromagnetic induction is used to pass energy through the skin with a transcutaneous energy transfer (TET) system. Physiologic control, battery management, motor commutation, and communication functions are performed by a surface mount internal controller. An infrared data link within the TET coils provides bidirectional communication between the external and internal controllers. A computer model was developed to predict system performance. The dimensions are 180 mm x 116 mm x 40 mm. An in vitro system pumped 5.7 L/min at 10 mmHg inflow and 100 mmHg outflow pressure. The internal battery can provide the projected energy requirements for 40 min after 540 charge/discharge cycles, and the external battery is capable of 4 hr of operation after 150 cycles. The TET system can deliver 60 W of power and exceeds 80% efficiency between 15 and 30 W. The device configuration is based on human cadaver and intraoperative fit trials. The device is being modified for calf implantation by redirecting the blood ports, increasing the output, and incorporating the internal controller in the unified device base.

Animals↗

The co-distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and hookworm among African schoolchildren.

BACKGROUND: Surprisingly little is known about the geographical overlap between malaria and other tropical diseases, including helminth infections. This is despite the potential public health importance of co-infection and synergistic opportunities for control. METHODS: Statistical models are presented that predict the large-scale distribution of hookworm in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), based on the relationship between prevalence of infection among schoolchildren and remotely sensed environmental variables. Using a climate-based spatial model of the transmission potential for Plasmodium falciparum malaria, adjusted for urbanization, the spatial congruence of populations at coincident risk of infection is determined. RESULTS: The model of hookworm indicates that the infection is widespread throughout Africa and that, of the 179.3 million school-aged children who live on the continent, 50.0 (95% CI: 48.9-51.1) million (27.9% of total population) are infected with hookworm and 45.1 (95% CI: 43.9-46) million are estimated to be at risk of coincident infection. CONCLUSION: Malaria and hookworm infection are widespread throughout SSA and over a quarter of school-aged children in sub-Saharan Africa appear to be at risk of coincident infection and thus at enhanced risk of clinical disease. The results suggest that the control of parasitic helminths and of malaria in school children could be viewed as essential co-contributors to promoting the health of schoolchildren.

Africa South of the Sahara↗

Quantification of short term signaling by the epidermal growth factor receptor.

During the past decade, our knowledge of molecular mechanisms involved in growth factor signaling has proliferated almost explosively. However, the kinetics and control of information transfer through signaling networks remain poorly understood. This paper combines experimental kinetic analysis and computational modeling of the short term pattern of cellular responses to epidermal growth factor (EGF) in isolated hepatocytes. The experimental data show transient tyrosine phosphorylation of the EGF receptor (EGFR) and transient or sustained response patterns in multiple signaling proteins targeted by EGFR. Transient responses exhibit pronounced maxima, reached within 15-30 s of EGF stimulation and followed by a decline to relatively low (quasi-steady-state) levels. In contrast to earlier suggestions, we demonstrate that the experimentally observed transients can be accounted for without requiring receptor-mediated activation of specific tyrosine phosphatases, following EGF stimulation. The kinetic model predicts how the cellular response is controlled by the relative levels and activity states of signaling proteins and under what conditions activation patterns are transient or sustained. EGFR signaling patterns appear to be robust with respect to variations in many elemental rate constants within the range of experimentally measured values. On the other hand, we specify which changes in the kinetic scheme, rate constants, and total amounts of molecular factors involved are incompatible with the experimentally observed kinetics of signal transfer. Quantitation of signaling network responses to growth factors allows us to assess how cells process information controlling their growth and differentiation.

Animals↗

A computational approach to prefrontal cortex, cognitive control and schizophrenia: recent developments and current challenges.

In this chapter we consider the mechanisms involved in cognitive control-from both a computational and a neurobiological perspective- and how these might be impaired in schizophrenia. By 'control', we mean the ability of the cognitive system to flexibly adapt its behaviour to the demands of particular tasks, favouring the processing of task-relevant information over other sources of competing information, and mediating task-relevant behaviour over habitual, or otherwise prepotent responses. There is a large body of evidence to suggest that the prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a critical role in cognitive control. In previous work, we have used a computational framework to understand and develop explicit models of this function of PFC, and its impairment in schizophrenia. This work has lead to the hypothesis that PFC houses a mechanism for representing and maintaining context information. We have demonstrated that this mechanism can account for the behavioural inhibition and active memory functions commonly ascribed to PFC, and for human performance in simple attention, language and memory tasks that draw upon these functions for cognitive control. Furthermore, we have used our models to simulate detailed patterns of cognitive deficit observed in schizophrenia, an illness associated with marked disturbances in cognitive control, and well established deficits of PFC. Here, we review results of recent empirical studies that test predictions made by our models regarding schizophrenic performance in tasks designed specifically to probe the processing of context. These results showed selective schizophrenic deficits in tasks conditions that placed the greatest demands on memory and inhibition, both of which we have argued rely on the processing of context. Furthermore, we observed predicted patterns of deterioration in first episode vs multi-episode patients. We also discuss recent developments in our computational work, that have led to refinements of the models that allow us to simulate more detailed aspects of task performance, such as reaction time data and manipulations of task parameters such as interstimulus delay. These refined models make several provocative new predictions, including conditions in which schizophrenics and control subjects are expected to show similar reaction time performance, and we provide preliminary data in support of these predictions. These successes notwithstanding, our theory of PFC function and its impairment in schizophrenia is still in an early stage of development. We conclude by presenting some of the challenges to the theory in its current form, and new directions that we have begun to take to meet these challenges. In particular, we focus on refinements concerning the mechanisms underlying active maintenance of representations within PFC, and the characteristics of these representations that allow them to support the flexibility of cognitive control exhibited by normal human behaviour. Taken in toto, we believe that this work illustrates the value of a computational approach for understanding the mechanisms responsible for cognitive control, at both the neural and psychological levels, and the specific manner in which they break down in schizophrenia.

Cognition↗

Predicted and observed cardiovascular disease in South Asians: application of FINRISK, Framingham and SCORE models to Newcastle Heart Project data.

BACKGROUND: South Asian populations in the United Kingdom have a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Risk prediction models appear to be inaccurate in South Asians. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictive capacity of the FINRISK, Framingham (1991) and SCORE risk prediction models in the Newcastle Heart Project population (n = 1301). METHODS: Mortality data for England and Wales were used to define the expected ranking of CVD risk by country of birth. CVD mortality in the Newcastle Heart Project sample was examined. Risk factor measures were obtained from the Newcastle Heart Project, where 90 percent of South Asians were born in the Indian Subcontinent. The predicted outcomes for FINRISK were acute myocardial infarction and CHD mortality, for Framingham CHD mortality, myocardial infarction, new angina and coronary insufficiency and for SCORE CHD and non-CHD CVD mortality. RESULTS: The FINRISK model predicted in South Asian men combined, compared with Europeans, a risk ratio of 122 per cent (SMR 142) with substantial subgroup heterogeneity, e.g. 154 per cent in Bangladeshis (SMR 151), 129 per cent in Pakistanis (SMR 148), 99 per cent in Indians (SMR 142). The FINRISK risk ratios for South Asian women combined were 160 per cent (SMR 145), for Bangladeshis 184 per cent (SMR 91), Pakistanis 172 per cent (SMR 111) and for Indians 145 per cent (SMR 158). The Framingham model results were very similar to FINRISK, but the SCORE model showed comparatively low 10 year risk in all South Asian groups. Both the Framingham stroke model and the SCORE non-CHD CVD model predicted comparatively low rates, while national data showed these to be high. Control of the five major risk factors was modelled by FINRISK to reduce risk by about 59 per cent in South Asian men and 67 per cent in South Asian women, with some subgroup heterogeneity, compared to 50 per cent in European men and 48 per cent in European women. The Framingham model results were similar. The absolute rates for each ethnic group varied by model. CONCLUSION: The Framingham and FINRISK models gave similar results, mostly following expected patterns, but the SCORE model did not, probably reflecting its lack of inclusion of HDL and diabetes as risk factors. National mortality data and modelled predictions agreed reasonably well for South Asians combined, and Bangladeshi and Pakistani men, but not for Indian men and Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. The varying rates show the limits of modelling. The models suggest the potential gains from controlling major established risk factors could be substantial in South Asians and greater than in Europeans.

Adult↗

Allosteric determinants in guanine nucleotide-binding proteins.

Members of the G protein superfamily contain nucleotide-dependent switches that dictate the specificity of their interactions with binding partners. Using a sequence-based method termed statistical coupling analysis (SCA), we have attempted to identify the allosteric core of these proteins, the network of amino acid residues that couples the domains responsible for nucleotide binding and protein-protein interactions. One-third of the 38 residues identified by SCA were mutated in the G protein Gs alpha, and the interactions of guanosine 5'-3-O-(thio)triphosphate- and GDP-bound mutant proteins were tested with both adenylyl cyclase (preferential binding to GTP-Gs alpha) and the G protein beta gamma subunit complex (preferential binding to GDP-Gs alpha). A two-state allosteric model predicts that mutation of residues that control the equilibrium between GDP- and GTP-bound conformations of the protein will cause the ratio of affinities of these species for adenylyl cyclase and G beta gamma to vary in a reciprocal fashion. Observed results were consistent with this prediction. The network of residues identified by the SCA appears to comprise a core allosteric mechanism conferring nucleotide-dependent switching; the specific features of different G protein family members are built on this core.

Allosteric Site↗

Allosteric regulation of the transcription factor NFAT1 by multiple phosphorylation sites: a mathematical analysis.

NFAT transcription factors are activated through dephosphorylation by the phosphatase calcineurin. Experimental data show that 13 conserved phosphorylation sites conspire to control the transition between an inactive and an active conformation. We propose a quantitative model of the underlying molecular mechanisms that may generally apply to highly phosphorylated proteins. Mathematical analysis shows that multiple phosphorylation sites result in a threshold for protein activation. Its sharpness increases with the number of sites, thus providing a rationale for the involvement of the large number of serine residues in NFAT activation. The model predicts that nuclear kinases exert a larger control on the activation threshold than cytoplasmic kinases, and that the NFAT activation kinetics can discriminate between input signals of different amplitude.

Allosteric Regulation↗

Improved prediction of in vivo peroral absorption from in vitro intestinal permeability using an internal standard to control for intra- and inter-rat variability.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the use of an in vitro intestinal permeability model to predict rat and human absorption as well as to evaluate the use of an internal standard to control for intra- and inter-rat variability. METHODS: In vivo peroral absorption and in vitro steady-state intestinal permeability coefficients were determined in the rat for a variety of structurally different compounds with different physicochemical properties including: progesterone, hydrocortisone, salicylic acid, caffeine, clonidine, p-aminoclonidine, UK-14304, oxymetazoline, mannitol, PEG 900, PEG 4000, and a number of novel hydrophilic chemical entities. RESULTS: The intestinal permeability coefficients determined in vitro could be used to predict the peroral absorption of a compound in both the rat and human. Normalizing the permeability of a test compound to an internal standard, e.g. mannitol, greatly improved the prediction of peroral absorption. CONCLUSIONS: The use of an internal standard can aid in the prediction of the peroral absorption of a test compound, in particular, for one that has moderate absorption in the range of 20-80%. Moreover, these methods would appear to be a useful means to improve the prediction of other absorption models as well, such as the Caco-2 cell systems and in-situ perfusion methods.

Administration, Oral↗

Application of geographic information systems and remote sensing to schistosomiasis control in China.

Progress in China on developing prediction models using remote sensing, geographic information systems and climate data with historical infection prevalence and malacology databases is reviewed. Special reference is made to the effects of the Yangtze river Three Gorges dam project on environmental changes that may impact changes in the spatial and temporal distribution and abundance of Schistosoma japonicum in China, and the future success of disease control programs.

Animals↗