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PubMedDate not supplied

Predictors of 1-year treatment outcome in bulimia nervosa.

We examined predictors of outcome 1 year after completion of a randomized clinical trial assessing the additive efficacy of two forms of exposure with response prevention to a core of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for bulimia nervosa (BN). One hundred one women who met DSM-III-R criteria for BN, and who completed the clinical trial, were available for follow-up at 1 year. Predictor variables were assessed prospectively and partitioned temporally to reflect lifetime history (including personality), pretreatment clinical status, and posttreatment clinical status. Outcome was based on the frequency of binging and purging in the 3 months before assessment based on carefully constructed lifechart interviews. A series of stepwise logistic regressions were performed to determine independent predictors of 1-year outcome while controlling for treatment received. Demographic variables were unrelated to treatment outcome. A history of obesity was predictive of poor outcome, whereas a history of alcohol dependence decreased the odds of poor outcome. High self-directedness on the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) predicted favorable outcome at 1 year, whereas personality disorder symptoms were not predictive. Pretreatment global functioning, bulimia scores on the Eating Disorders Inventory (EDI), and the presence of major depression predicted poor outcome. Posttreatment binging, food restriction, and urges to binge on a cue reactivity assessment predicted poor outcome at 1 year. The character trait of self-directedness is a strong predictor of good outcome for CBT, and methods to enhance this trait may be worthy of investigation. Low global functioning and the presence of major depression at presentation may require additional treatment than focused CBT for BN. Our results argue for treatment goals that include abstinence from binging and restricting and decreases in urges to binge in response to high-risk cues.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1991

Predictors of decline in Alzheimer's disease.

Age of onset and aphasia are frequently proposed as predictors of decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD). We compared longitudinally the neuropsychological test performance of AD patients classified as Fast Decliners (FD, N = 18) based on the rate of change of their scores on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMS) and a group classified as Slow Decliners (SD, N = 15). There was no statistical difference in the age of onset of AD or in severity of dementia at first visit. Performance on verbal tests was the best predictor of rapid cognitive decline, even after the influence of the overall degree of dementia had been accounted for. Among the language tasks, performance on a naming test was the best predictor. The results of this study do not support age of onset as a predictor of the course of AD. On the other hand, poor performance on language tests does predict a more rapid rate of decline in AD.

Aged↗

PubMed1995

Ovarian volume: a novel outcome predictor for assisted reproduction.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the potential of ovarian volume as a predictor of assisted reproduction outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review. SETTING: University-based assisted reproduction program. PATIENTS: One hundred eighty-eight women initiating their first cycle of assisted reproduction. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pretreatment transvaginal ultrasound ovarian measurements were compared with subsequent ovulation induction parameters (peak E2, numbers of oocytes, and embryos) and cycle outcome (cancellation and pregnancy). RESULT: Total ovarian volume and volume of the smallest ovary were significant variables predicting peak E2 and numbers of oocytes and embryos. Total ovarian volume was a predictor of cycle cancellation and volume of the smallest ovary a predictor of clinical pregnancy. Large ovarian volumes are associated with good assisted reproductive technology outcomes whereas small ovarian volumes are associated with poor outcomes. CONCLUSION: Beyond maternal age, total ovarian volume, and volume of the smallest ovary are significant predictors of the success of assisted reproductive techniques.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of eating disorder scores in children ages 6 through 14: a longitudinal study.

The objective of this study was to identify variables that predict higher eating disorder scores in non-clinical boys and girls ages 6 through 14. Two hundred sixteen children participated and were tested annually for 3 years. A TV-video procedure was used to measure the accuracy of body size judgments. Variables examined included demographic, familial, sociocultural, social, esteem, and clinical variables. Predictors of higher eating disorder scores for both sexes included height and weight, children's perceptions of parental concerns about their body size, low body esteem, and depression. For girls only, a larger perceived body size and smaller idealized body size were also predictors. Teasing was a predictor for boys only. An analysis of longitudinal changes suggests that low body esteem becomes a significant factor around age 9, depression emerges as a predictor at age 10, and body size judgments in perceived and ideal sizes at ages 11 and 12. Changes over 2 years in individuals' weight and height, teasing, body dissatisfaction, and eating disorder scores were also found to predict higher eating disorder scores.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of symptom severity in patients with chronic prostatitis and interstitial cystitis.

PURPOSE: Numerous studies have been performed to identify potential risk factors for CP/CPPS and IC. However, few studies have been done to identify predictors of disease severity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 174 men with CP/CPPS and 111 women with IC completed questionnaires to quantify symptom severity and identify demographic, medical and psychosocial characteristics. Symptom severity was assessed with the National Institutes of Health CPSI in men, and the O'Leary-Sant ICSI and problem index in women. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify characteristics predictive of worse symptoms. RESULTS: The mean National Institutes of Health CPSI score in men was 15.32, and the mean O'Leary-Sant ICSI and problem index in women was 19.17. The most commonly reported comorbidities were allergies, sinusitis, erectile dysfunction and irritable bowel syndrome in men, and allergies, urinary incontinence, sinusitis and irritable bowel syndrome in women. In the 2 sexes self-reported urinary frequency and urgency, worse depression scores and lower education level were independent predictors of worse symptom severity. In men additional independent predictors were self-reported pelvic pain, fibromyalgia and previous heart attack, and in women an additional independent predictor was postmenopausal status. CONCLUSIONS: There are several common medical conditions associated with urological pelvic pain syndromes in men and women. Few of them were predictive of symptoms severity in this analysis. Self-reported pelvic pain symptoms, education and depression severity were the factors most strongly predictive of symptom severity in patients with CP/CPPS and IC.

Adult↗

PubMed1991

Serum lipids and lipoproteins are less powerful predictors of extracranial carotid artery atherosclerosis than are cigarette smoking and hypertension.

The effect of serum lipids and lipoproteins on extracranial carotid artery atherosclerosis (CAS) was studied in patients who underwent carotid arteriography. Serum lipid and lipoprotein values along with data on other potential predictors of extracranial CAS were determined in 240 patients who had at least one extracranial carotid artery visualized. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, the independently significant predictors of the presence of extracranial CAS were, in decreasing order of significance, duration of smoking of cigarettes, hypertension, age, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Serum cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and apolipoprotein A-I did not show an independent effect. Although low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was an independent predictor of the presence of extracranial CAS, its effect as a predictor was far outweighed by the effects of the duration of smoking of cigarettes and a history of hypertension.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Predictors of response to transantral orbital decompression in severe Graves' ophthalmopathy.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that may help predict the outcome after transantral orbital decompression in Graves' ophthalmopathy. DESIGN: A retrospective study was conducted of 428 patients who had undergone an initial transantral orbital decompression for severe Graves' ophthalmopathy at the Mayo Clinic between November 1969 and May 1989. MATERIAL AND METHODS: With use of logistic regression analysis, we assessed the preoperative characteristics, the early postoperative results, and the follow-up questionnaire data (obtained a median of 9.5 years postoperatively) from 304 female and 124 male patients with Graves' ophthalmopathy who had undergone transantral orbital decompression at a median age of 53 years. RESULTS: On multivariate stepwise regression analysis, young age, male sex, and long duration of eye symptoms were predictors of severe initial proptosis (P < 0.001). The only independent predictors of greater postoperative recession of proptosis were severity of initial proptosis and longer interval between operation and postoperative examination (P < 0.001). Patients with the most reduction of proptosis had the greatest improvement in visual acuity but more chance for postoperative development of continuous diplopia. Failure of prior corticosteroid or orbital radiation therapy did not affect the degree of recession of proptosis or improvement in visual acuity. On multivariate analysis for predictors of long-term overall patient satisfaction, only young age of the patient was of borderline significance (P = 0.05), and the only significant predictor of satisfaction with the postoperative eye appearance was an operation done primarily for cosmetic purposes (P = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Although various factors may influence the outcome of orbital decompression in patients with Graves' ophthalmopathy, this study showed that the more pronounced the initial proptosis, the greater the degree of recession postoperatively. A higher degree of reduction of proptosis is associated with better visual acuity but also a greater likelihood of development of continuous diplopia.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Plasma levels of D-dimer and soluble fibrin polymer in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a possible predictor of tumor thrombosis.

INTRODUCTION: Fibrin formation and removal occurs continuously during the development of malignancy. Moreover, plasma D-dimer is indicative of ongoing fibrinolysis, and soluble fibrin polymer (Thrombus precursor protein, TpP) represents thrombogenic activity. We evaluated the relationship between the levels of plasma D-dimer and TpP and tumor thrombosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and examined these markers as possible predictors of tumor thrombus in the portal or the hepatic vein. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Plasma levels of D-dimer and TpP were measured in 66 HCC patients (38 without tumor thrombosis, 28 with tumor thrombosis) and 29 healthy controls, by enzyme immunoassay using an Asserachrom D-Di kit (Diagnostica Stago, France) and a TpP kit (American Biogenetic Sciences, USA). RESULTS: The plasma levels of D-dimer and TpP in HCC patients were found to be significantly higher than those in healthy controls, and these values were also significantly higher in patients with tumor thrombosis than those without tumor thrombosis. Positive D-dimer (>367 ng/ml) correlated weakly with the presence of tumor thrombosis, whereas positive TpP (>5.4 microg/ml) correlated strongly with the presence of tumor thrombosis. By multivariant logistic analysis, positive TpP level was found to be a significant predictor of the presence of tumor thrombosis. In contrast, positive D-dimer level was not found to be a significant predictor for predicting tumor thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: Increased D-dimer and TpP levels in HCC may suggest that fibrinolysis and coagulation occur continuously during tumor progression. This study shows that a positive TpP level is a predictor of tumor thrombosis in HCC, which suggests that TpP may be useful for identifying tumor thrombus in the portal and hepatic veins.

Biomarkers↗

PubMed2001

Clinical predictors of spontaneous acute urinary retention in men with LUTS and clinical BPH: a comprehensive analysis of the pooled placebo groups of several large clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: To comprehensively evaluate clinical predictors of spontaneous acute urinary retention (AUR) across pooled data of placebo-treated patients from clinical trials conducted in men with lower urinary tract symptoms and clinically diagnosed benign prostatic hyperplasia. METHODS: Data from the placebo-treatment groups of several prospective, randomized clinical trials conducted in the United States (n = 3040), Scandinavia, Canada, and worldwide (n = 2295) were combined in the analyses. More than 110 variables were considered individually and in combination as predictors of AUR using logistic regression analysis and classification and regression tree methods with a split-sample approach to cross-validation. RESULTS: The different methods of analysis identified consistent potential predictors of episodes of AUR. When prostate volume was included in the analyses, it was selected as the initial variable discriminating men with and without subsequent AUR. Omitting prostate volume because of its availability in only a subset of men, a logistic model including serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA), urinating more than every 2 hours, symptom problem index, maximum urinary flow rate, and hesitancy of urination had good predictive properties (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.742 +/- 0.047), as did a model with PSA (AUC = 0.716 +/- 0.045). A classification and regression decision tree with the same variables predicted AUR (AUC = 0.74, sensitivity = 72%, specificity = 67%) as well as did a tree with PSA alone (AUC = 0.70, sensitivity = 75%, specificity = 64%). CONCLUSIONS: Prostate volume and serum PSA are strong predictors of AUR in placebo-treated men with lower urinary tract symptoms and clinically diagnosed benign prostatic hyperplasia who were screened for prostate cancer. From more than 110 variables, logistic models and decision trees with PSA alone were comparable to expanded models that included PSA, urinary frequency and hesitancy, flow rate parameters, and symptom problem index, and to a scoring algorithm.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2002

Race as an outcome predictor after radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

OBJECTIVES: Whether race is an independent predictor of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence after RP is controversial. To compare racial differences in clinical and pathologic features and biochemical recurrence in men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP), we used a newly established multicenter database of patients from four equal-access healthcare centers in California, the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. METHODS: A retrospective survey of 1547 patients treated with RP at four different equal-access medical centers in California between 1988 and 2001 was undertaken. Race was categorized as white (n = 1014), black (n = 338), or nonwhite-nonblack (n = 195). Patients were analyzed for racial differences in preoperative variables (age at surgery, clinical stage, PSA, and biopsy Gleason score) and surgical variables (pathologic stage, surgical Gleason score, incidence of seminal vesicle invasion, positive surgical margins, capsular penetration, and pelvic lymph node involvement). Patients were followed up for PSA recurrence. Multivariate analysis was used to determine whether race was an independent predictor of biochemical failure. RESULTS: Significant differences were found among the races in the preoperative factors of clinical stage, age, serum PSA, and biopsy Gleason score, although the absolute differences were small. No differences were found among the races in the pathologic features of the RP specimens, including Gleason score, pathologic stage, and incidence of positive surgical margins, capsular penetration, seminal vesicle invasion, or lymph node involvement. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, only serum PSA (P <0.001) and biopsy Gleason score (P <0.001) were significant independent predictors of time to biochemical recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In a large multicenter cohort of patients from four equal-access medical care facilities in California, although racial differences were found in clinical stage, age, biopsy Gleason score, and serum PSA level at diagnosis, we found race was not an independent predictor of biochemical recurrence after RP. Race should not be used in models or nomograms predicting PSA failure after RP. The current study represents the largest series of black patients and the first large series of nonwhite-nonblack patients treated with RP reported to date. The Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database is a valuable resource for studying patients treated with RP.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed1996

Personality as independent predictor of long-term mortality in patients with coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Emotional distress has been related to mortality in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), but little is known about the role of personality in long-term prognosis. We postulated that type-D personality (the tendency to suppress emotional distress) was a predictor of long-term mortality in CHD, independently of established biomedical risk factors. METHODS: We studied 268 men and 35 women with angiographically documented CHD, aged 31-79 years, who were taking part in an outpatient rehabilitation programme. All patients completed personality questionnaire at entry to the programme. We contacted them 6-10 years later (mean 7-9) to find out survival status. The main endpoint was death from all causes. FINDINGS: At follow-up, 38 patients had died; there were 24 cardiac deaths. The rate of death was higher for type-D patients than for those without type-D (23 [27%]/85 vs 15 [7%]/218; p < 0.00001). The association between type-D personality and mortality was still evident more than 5 years after the coronary event and was found in both men and women. Mortality was also associated with impaired left ventricular function, three-vessel disease, low exercise tolerance, and the lack of thrombolytic therapy after myocardial infarction. When we controlled for these biomedical predictors in multiple logistic regression analysis, the impact of type-D remained significant (odds ratio 4.1 [95% CI 1.9-8.8]; p = 0.0004). In this group of CHD patients, type-D was an independent predictor of both cardiac and non-cardiac mortality. Social alienation and depression were also related to mortality, but did not add to the predictive power of type-D. INTERPRETATION: We found that type-D personality was a significant predictor of long-term mortality in patients with established CHD, independently of biomedical risk factors. Personality traits should be taken into account in the association between emotional distress and mortality in CHD.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The identification of ICU-specific outcome predictors: a comparison of medical, surgical, and cardiothoracic ICUs from a single institution.

OBJECTIVES: To identify ICU-specific predictors of mortality. DESIGN: An inception cohort study. SETTING: Barnes Hospital, an academic tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients, requiring mechanical ventilation, admitted to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) (75 patients), surgical ICU (100 patients), and cardiothoracic ICU (102 patients). INTERVENTIONS: Prospective data collection and outcomes evaluation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Stepwise logistic regression analysis identified the following variables to be independent predictors of mortality for the individual ICUs: medical ICU, an Organ System Failure Index (OSFi) greater than or equal to 3; surgical ICU, OSFI greater than or equal to 3; cardiothoracic ICU, OSFI greater than or equal to 3, requiring acute dialysis, and the occurrence of an iatrogenic event. The same analysis was repeated after removing the OSFI as a potential confounding variable. Independent predictors of mortality identified in this subsequent analysis were as follows: medical ICU, occurrence of renal failure; surgical ICU, supine head positioning, acute physiology score greater than or equal to 10, preadmission lifestyle score greater than or equal to 2; cardiothoracic ICU, requiring acute dialysis, occurrence of ventilator-associated pneumonia, and the occurrence of an iatrogenic event. CONCLUSIONS: We identified the presence of ICU-specific predictors of mortality amongst the three ICUs examined. These data suggest that ICU-specific interventions could be developed to improve the quality of patient care and potentially to reduce patient mortality.

APACHE↗

PubMed2004

The process of suicidal planning among medical doctors: predictors in a longitudinal Norwegian sample.

BACKGROUND: The suicidal process is a common underlying perspective on suicidal behaviour, but the process has hardly been empirically studied. This study investigates the process from suicidal thoughts to suicidal planning among physicians; an occupational group with a raised risk of suicide. The process is studied in two ways: First, predictors at medical school of postgraduate suicidal planning are identified. Second, the transition from suicidal thoughts to planning over three to four years is explored. METHODS: A nationwide cohort of Norwegian medical students (N=631) were approached initially in their final semester (T1), and then again in the first (T2) and fourth (T3) postgraduate years. The average observation time was 3.6 years. RESULTS: Twenty-eight participants (6%) reported suicidal planning in the postgraduate years. Adjusted predictors at T1 were vulnerability trait (neuroticism), severe depressive symptoms, and negative life events. Among those with previous suicidal thoughts at T1, 13 (8%) reported suicidal planning at T2 or T3. Adjusted predictors of transition from thoughts to planning were reality weakness trait, severe depressive symptoms, and a low level of perceived medical school stress. A minority of the postgraduate planners had sought professional care. LIMITATIONS: The effect of severe depressive symptoms may be overestimated, and the sample size is relatively small. CONCLUSIONS: Common predictors for both postgraduate suicidal planning and transition from thoughts to planning were depressive symptoms and personality traits. Reality weakness was the most decisive trait for aggravation in suicidal ideation, and this personality trait needs further study in suicidal research and clinical awareness.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Predictors of service utilization in veterans with bipolar disorder: a prospective study.

This study prospectively followed 103 bipolar patients enrolled in a VA treatment program for 1 year. Mental health service utilization was recorded and aggregated using the VA Cost Distribution Report. We hypothesized that previously reported predictors of disease severity would also predict service utilization, and that several other predictors of service utilization might also be identified. Analyses indicated that only the presence of a major affective episode at clinic intake and a recalled history of childhood physical abuse predicted mental health service utilization. Contrary to expectations, previously reported predictors of disease severity were not significant predictors. Implications for the study of economic outcome are discussed. In particular, we propose that economic outcome is a complex function of both patient and system factors, rather than simply being passively driven by disease severity.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Predictors of short-term deterioration and compliance in psychiatric emergency patients: a prospective study of 457 patients referred to the emergency room of a general hospital.

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of (1) short-term outcome and (2) short-term compliance with treatment (for non-hospitalized patients) in psychiatric emergency patients. Subjects comprised 457 patients referred to the emergency ward of a French general hospital and requiring examination by a psychiatrist. Clinical and therapeutic assessments were carried out at baseline, using DSM-IV diagnoses and overall psychopathological scoring scales [Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) and Symptom Checklist-90 Revised]. Clinical outcome and compliance were assessed 3 weeks after entry. For each of the two issues assessed, stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed following univariate comparisons. The three best predictors of deterioration at 3 weeks were lack of compliance to treatment, presence of a previous psychiatric history, and a low BPRS hebephrenic factor score. The best predictors of compliance in non-hospitalized patients were a previous psychiatric history, marital status, a low BPRS hostility factor score, and older age. The main predictor of deterioration was non-compliance. Thus, we emphasize the importance of improving compliance, especially among young patients with no previous psychiatric history.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Predictors of response to antidepressants general principles and clinical implications.

What variables will predict who should be treated with antidepressants and who should not? If someone should be treated, what variables will predict which treatment is most likely to work? If patients are treated, what will predict who will respond and who will not? Clinicians have asked these questions ever since researchers established that antidepressants were superior to placebo in the treatment of depression. Innumerable reports claim either biologic or psychosocial predictor variables of response, and every few years yet another review of predictors is published in the literature. This article reviews methodologic issues that have been neglected in the pursuit of predictors to antidepressant response and proposes improved requirements for predictor research that would impact clinical practice.

Antidepressive Agents↗

PubMed2002

Cognitive therapy of depression: pretreatment patient predictors of outcome.

This review examines the role of patient predictors of outcome in cognitive therapy of depression. Studies that meet eligibility criteria are reviewed for demonstrated linkage between various predictors (i.e., pretreatment severity, historical features, demographic predictors, dysfunctional attitudes and other cognitive features, and treatment acceptability) and outcome, and several effects are found. Notably, high pretreatment severity scores are associated with poorer response to cognitive therapy, as are high chronicity, younger age at onset, an increased number of previous episodes, and marital status. High pretreatment levels of dysfunctional attitudes and certain beliefs about the nature of depression were also found to predict differential response to cognitive therapy of depression. Limitations of the research and directions for further investigations of patient predictors of outcome in cognitive therapy of depression are provided.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2000

[Usefulness of predictors of angiographic restenosis to predict clinical restenosis after coronary stent placement].

INTRODUCTION: After coronary stenting, several predictors of angiographic in-stent restenosis have been identified in different studies, however, little is known about predictors of clinical restenosis, a more functional aspect of coronary restenosis. AIM: To assess whether risk factors for angiographic restenosis previously described, are able to predict clinical restenosis and at what rate in current practice. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 216 consecutive patients (271 stents in 256 lesions) with procedural success were followed-up for 17.6 +/-10 months during periodic visits. Clinical restenosis was defined as the presence of symptoms or signs of myocardial ischemia, associated with >= 50% diameter stenosis on the angiogram. RESULTS: Clinical restenosis occurred in 33 lesions (13%), which were revascularized with 34 stents associated with unstable angina in 29, acute myocardial infarction in three and death in one case. Multivariate analysis identified as independent predictors of clinical restenosis, a vessel diameter less than 3 mm (p < 0.001, OR 4.5), a restenotic lesion (p = 0.01, OR 2.9) and the presence of residual stenosis by visual estimate (> 0%) after implantation (p = 0. 02, OR 2.5). These three risk factors explained most clinical restenosis (73%), with rates of 22% when at least one was present and 4% in absence of all these. The presence of diabetes mellitus, the location in the anterior descending coronary artery or at coronary ostium, and the number or total length of stents per lesion did not achieve an independent, significant association as predictors of clinical restenosis. CONCLUSIONS: Most clinical restenosis after coronary stenting can be predicted by the restenotic character of the revascularized lesion, the diameter of the vessel being less than 3 mm and the presence of residual stenosis by visual estimate at the end of procedure.

Aged↗